Local adaptation to climate anomalies relates to species phylogeny

Climate change reduces elevational and latitudinal differences in spring phenology of pine caterpillar (Dendrolimus spectabilis Bulter)

The pine caterpillar (Dendrolimus spectabilis Bulter, Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae), as an ectotherm, temperature plays a crucial role in its development. With climate change, earlier development of insect pests is expected to pose a more frequent threat to forest communities. Yet the quantitative research about the extent to which global warming affects pine caterpillar populations is rarely understood, particularly across various elevations and latitudes. Spring phenology of pine caterpillars showed an advancing trend with 0.8 d/10a, 2.2 d/10a, 2.2 d/10a, and 3.3 d/10a under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenario, respectively. There was a maximum advance of 20 d in spring phenology of pine caterpillars during the 2090s, from mid-March to early March, and even late February. This study highlighted the significant advance in spring phenology at elevations >1000 m and lower latitudes. Consequently, the differences in elevational and latitudinal gradients were relatively small as the increasing temperatures at the end of the 21st century. And the average temperature in February-March was effective in explaining theses variability. These findings are crucial for adapting and mitigating to climate change.

Citizen science data reveal regional heterogeneity in phenological response to climate in the large milkweed bug, Oncopeltus fasciatus

Regional populations of geographically widespread species may respond to different environmental factors across the species' range, generating divergent effects of climate change on life-history phenology. Using thousands of citizen science observations extracted from iNaturalist and associated with corresponding temperature, precipitation, elevation, and daylength information, we examined the drivers of adult mating and of nymphal phenology, development, and group size for populations of the large milkweed bug, Oncopeltus fasciatus, in different ecoregions. Research-grade iNaturalist images were correctly identified 98.3% of the time and yielded more than 3000 observations of nymphal groups and 1000 observations of mating adults spanning 18 years. Mating phenology showed distinct regional patterns, ranging from year-round mating in California to temporally restricted mating in the Great Lakes Northeastern Coast ecoregion. Relative temperature increases of 1°C for a given daylength expanded the mating season by more than a week in western ecoregions. While increases in relative temperature delayed mating phenology in all ecoregions, greater winter precipitation advanced mating in the California ecoregion. In the eastern ecoregions, nymphal phenology was delayed by increases in summer rainfall but was advanced by relative temperature increases, whereas in western regions, relative temperature increases delayed nymphal phenology. Furthermore, accumulated growing degree days (AGDD) was a poor predictor of developmental progression, as we found a positive but weak correlation between AGDD and age structure only for the Appalachian Southeast North America and the Great Lakes Northern Coast ecoregions. These complex phenological responses of O. fasciatus are just one example of how populations may be differentially susceptible to a diversity of climatic effects; using data across a species' whole distribution is critical for exposing regional variations, especially for species with large, continental-scale ranges. This study demonstrates the potential of photodocumented biodiversity data to aid in the monitoring of life history, host plant-insect interactions, and climate responsiveness.

Century-long butterfly range expansions in northern Europe depend on climate, land use and species traits

Climate change is an important driver of range shifts and community composition changes. Still, little is known about how the responses are influenced by the combination of land use, species interactions and species traits. We integrate climate and distributional data for 131 butterfly species in Sweden and Finland and show that cumulative species richness has increased with increasing temperature over the past 120 years. Average provincial species richness increased by 64% (range 15-229%), from 46 to 70. The rate and direction of range expansions have not matched the temperature changes, in part because colonisations have been modified by other climatic variables, land use and vary according to species characteristics representing ecological generalisation and species interactions. Results emphasise the role of a broad ecological filtering, whereby a mismatch between environmental conditions and species preferences limit the ability to disperse and establish populations in emerging climates and novel areas, with potentially widespread implications for ecosystem functioning.

Mechanisms underpinning community stability along a latitudinal gradient: Insights from a niche-based approach

At large scales, the mechanisms underpinning stability in natural communities may vary in importance due to changes in species composition, mean abundance, and species richness. Here we link species characteristics (niche positions) and community characteristics (richness and abundance) to evaluate the importance of stability mechanisms in 156 butterfly communities monitored across three European countries and spanning five bioclimatic regions. We construct niche-based hierarchical structural Bayesian models to explain first differences in abundance, population stability, and species richness between the countries, and then explore how these factors impact community stability both directly and indirectly (via synchrony and population stability). Species richness was partially explained by the position of a site relative to the niches of the species pool, and species near the centre of their niche had higher average population stability. The differences in mean abundance, population stability, and species richness then influenced how much variation in community stability they explained across the countries. We found, using variance partitioning, that community stability in Finnish communities was most influenced by community abundance, whereas this aspect was unimportant in Spain with species synchrony explaining most variation; the UK was somewhat intermediate with both factors explaining variation. Across all countries, the diversity-stability relationship was indirect with species richness reducing synchrony which increased community stability, with no direct effects of species richness. Our results suggest that in natural communities, biogeographical variation observed in key drivers of stability, such as population abundance and species richness, leads to community stability being limited by different factors and that this can partially be explained due to the niche characteristics of the European butterfly assemblage.

Stability of crop pollinator occurrence is influenced by bee community composition

Bees provide a vital ecosystem service to agriculture by contributing to the pollination of many leading global crops. Human wellbeing depends not only on the quantity of agricultural yields, but also on the stability and resilience of crop production. Yet a broad understanding of how the diversity and composition of pollinator communities may influence crop pollination service has previously been hindered by a scarcity of standardized data. We used outputs from Bayesian occupancy detection models to examine patterns in the inter-annual occupancy dynamics of the bee pollinator communities of four contrasting crops (apples, field bean, oilseed and strawberries) in Great Britain between 1985 and 2015. We compared how the composition and species richness of different crop pollinator communities may affect the stability of crop pollinator occurrence. Across the four crops, we found that the inter-annual occupancy dynamics of the associated pollinator communities tended to be more similar in smaller communities with closely related pollinator species. Our results indicate that crop pollinator communities composed of a small number of closely related bee species show greater variance in mean occupancy compared to crops with more diverse pollinator communities. Lower variance in the occurrence of crop pollinating bee species may lead to more stable crop pollination services. Finally, whilst our results initially indicated some redundancy within most crop pollinator communities, with no, or little, increase in the variance of overall mean occupancy when species were initially removed, this was followed by a rapid acceleration in the variance of crop pollinator occurrence as each crop's bee pollinator community was increasingly depreciated. High inter-annual variations in pollination services have negative implications for crop production and food security. High bee diversity could ensure more stable and resilient crop pollination services, yet current agri-environment schemes predominantly benefit a limited suite of common species. Management may therefore benefit from targeting a wider diversity of solitary species in order to safeguard crop pollination service in the face of increasing environmental change.

Life-history predicts global population responses to the weather in terrestrial mammals

With the looming threat of abrupt ecological disruption due to a changing climate, predicting which species are most vulnerable to environmental change is critical. The life-history of a species is an evolved response to its environmental context, and therefore a promising candidate for explaining differences in climate-change responses. However, we need broad empirical assessments from across the world's ecosystems to explore the link between life history and climate-change responses. Here, we use long-term abundance records from 157 species of terrestrial mammals and a two-step Bayesian meta-regression framework to investigate the link between annual weather anomalies, population growth rates, and species-level life history. Overall, we found no directional effect of temperature or precipitation anomalies or variance on annual population growth rates. Furthermore, population responses to weather anomalies were not predicted by phylogenetic covariance, and instead there was more variability in weather responses for populations within a species. Crucially, however, long-lived mammals with smaller litter sizes had smaller absolute population responses to weather anomalies compared with their shorter living counterparts with larger litters. These results highlight the role of species-level life history in driving responses to the environment.