India has natural resource capacity to achieve nutrition security, reduce health risks and improve environmental sustainability

Historical shifting in grain mineral density of landmark rice and wheat cultivars released over the past 50 years in India

The 'Green Revolution (GR)' has been successful in meeting food sufficiency in India, but compromising its nutritional security. In a first, we report altered grain nutrients profile of modern-bred rice and wheat cultivars diminishing their mineral dietary significance to the Indian population. To substantiate, we evaluated grain nutrients profile of historical landmark high-yielding cultivars of rice and wheat released in succeeding decades since the GR and its impacts on mineral diet quality and human health, with a prediction for decades ahead. Analysis of grain nutrients profile shows a downward trend in concentrations of essential and beneficial elements, but an upward in toxic elements in past 50 y in both rice and wheat. For example, zinc (Zn) and iron (Fe) concentration in grains of rice decreased by ~ 33.0 (P < 0.001) and 27.0% (P < 0.0001); while for wheat it decreased by ~ 30.0 (P < 0.0001) and 19.0% (P < 0.0001) in past more than 50 y, respectively. A proposed mineral-diet quality index (M-DQI) significantly (P < 0.0001) decreased ~ 57.0 and 36.0% in the reported time span (1960-2010) in rice and wheat, respectively. The impoverished M-DQI could impose hostile effects on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) like iron-deficiency anemia, respiratory, cardiovascular, and musculoskeletal among the Indian population by 2040. Our research calls for an urgency of grain nutrients profiling before releasing a cultivar of staples like rice and wheat in the future.

Food insecurity in the Eastern Indo-Gangetic plain: Taking a closer look

OBJECTIVE

Food security is an important policy issue in India. As India recently ranked 107th out of 121 countries in the 2022 Global Hunger Index, there is an urgent need to dissect, and gain insights into, such a major decline at the national level. However, the existing surveys, due to small sample sizes, cannot be used directly to produce reliable estimates at local administrative levels such as districts.

DESIGN

The latest round of available data from the Household Consumer Expenditure Survey (HCES 2011-12) done by the National Sample Survey Office of India used stratified multi-stage random sampling with districts as strata, villages as first stage and households as second stage units.

SETTING

Our Small Area Estimation approach estimated food insecurity prevalence, gap, and severity of each rural district of the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plain (EIGP) region by modeling the HCES data, guided by local covariates from the 2011 Indian Population Census.

PARTICIPANTS

In HCES, 5915 (34429), 3310 (17534) and 3566 (15223) households (persons) were surveyed from the 71, 38 and 18 districts of the EIGP states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal respectively.

RESULTS

We estimated the district-specific food insecurity indicators, and mapped their local disparities over the EIGP region. By comparing food insecurity with indicators of climate vulnerability, poverty and crop diversity, we shortlisted the vulnerable districts in EIGP.

CONCLUSIONS

Our district-level estimates and maps can be effective for informed policy-making to build local resiliency and address systemic vulnerabilities where they matter most in the post-pandemic era.

ADVANCES

Our study computed, for the Indian states in the EIGP region, the first area-level small area estimates of food insecurity as well as poverty over the past decade, and generated a ranked list of districts upon combining these data with measures of crop diversity and climatic vulnerability.

Integrating crop redistribution and improved management towards meeting China's food demand with lower environmental costs

China feeds 19.1% of the world's population with 8.6% of the arable land. Here we propose an integrated approach combining crop redistribution and improved management to meet China's food demand in 2030. We simulated the food demand, estimated the national crop production through the productivity of the top 10% of producers in each county, and optimized the spatial distribution of 11 groups of crop types among counties using the data of the top producers. Integrating crop redistribution and improved management increased crop production and can meet the food demand in 2030, while the agricultural inputs (N and P fertilizers and irrigation water) and environmental impacts (reactive N loss and greenhouse gas emissions) were reduced. Although there are significant socio-economic and cultural barriers to implementing such redistribution, these results suggest that integrated measures can achieve food security and decrease negative environmental impacts. County-specific policies and advisory support will be needed to achieve the promises of combining optimization strategies.

Synergies in sustainable phosphorus use and greenhouse gas emissions mitigation in China: Perspectives from the entire supply chain from fertilizer production to agricultural use

Synergies to achieve high phosphorus (P) use efficiency (PUE) and mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are critical for developing strategies aimed toward agricultural green development. However, the potential effects of such synergies in the entire P supply chain through optimizing P management in crop production are poorly understood. In this study, a partial life cycle of a GHG emissions model was developed to quantify the P-related GHG emissions in the entire P supply chain in China. Our results showed that 16.3 kg CO₂-equivalent (CO₂-eq) was produced from the entire P supply chain per unit of P used for grain agriculture (maize, rice, and wheat). P-related GHG emissions in China increased more than five-fold from 1980 (7.2 Tg CO₂-eq) to 2018 (44.9 Tg CO₂-eq). GHG emissions were found to be strongly associated with the intensity of grain production in China, and they varied considerably across production regions owing to the differences in the P fertilizer production efficiency. Mineral P fertilizer use in crop production was the primary source of P-related GHG emissions. The results suggest that sustainable P management by matching mineral P fertilizer rates and fertilizer types with crop needs can mitigate GHG emissions by 10.8-27.7 Tg (24.0-65.1%). Moreover, this can improve PUE and reduce mineral P input by 0.7-1.4 Tg (24.0-46.0%). These findings highlight that potential synergies between high PUE and low P-related GHG emissions can be achieved via sustainable P management, thereby enhancing green agricultural development in China and other regions worldwide.

Pathway to achieve a sustainable food and land-use transition in India

India has committed to reducing the emissions intensity of GDP by 33-35% from the 2005 level by 2030 in alignment with objectives of the Paris Agreement. This will require a significant reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the food and land-use sector. In this paper, we construct three potential pathways for India to achieve its emissions target by 2050 involving moderate ambitions of mitigation action (BAU), moderate ambitions combined with achieving healthy diets (BAU + NIN), and high levels of mitigation action inclusive of healthy diets (SUSTAINABLE). Using an integrated accounting tool, the FABLE Calculator, that harmonizes various socioeconomic and biophysical data, we project these pathways under the conditions of cross-country balanced trade flows. Results from the projections show that the demand for cereals will increase by 2050, leading to increased GHG emissions under BAU. Under the SUSTAINABLE pathways, GHG emissions will decrease over the same period due to reduced demand for cereals, whereas significant crop productivity and harvest intensity gains would lead to increased crop production. The exercise reveals the indispensability of healthy diets, improved crop, and livestock productivity, and net-zero deforestation in achieving India's mid-century emission targets from the agriculture sector.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-022-01193-0.

Scalable diversification options delivers sustainable and nutritious food in Indo-Gangetic plains

Indo-Gangetic plains (IGP) of South Asia have supported bulk of human and bovine population in the region since ages, and a spectacular progress has been made in food production. However, malnutrition, diminishing total factor productivity, and natural resource degradation continue to plague this cereal-dominated region, which is also vulnerable to climate change. Addressing these challenges would require a transition towards diversifying cereal rotations with agroecological cropping systems. A study was, therefore, conducted at the experimental farm of ICAR-CSSRI, Karnal on crop diversification and sustainable intensification options using agro-ecological approaches such as Conservation Agriculture (CA) and diversified cropping systems to ensure food and nutritional security while sustaining the natural resources. On 2 years mean basis, CA-based cropping system management scenarios (mean of Sc2–Sc7) using diversified crop rotations; increased the system yield by 15.4%, net return by 28.7%, protein yield by 29.7%, while using 53.0% less irrigation water compared to conventional tillage (CT)-based rice–wheat system (Sc1). Maize-mustard-mungbean on permanent beds (PBs) (Sc4) recorded the highest productivity (+ 40.7%), profitability (+ 60.1%), and saved 81.8% irrigation water compared to Sc1 (11.8 Mg ha⁻¹; 2190 USD ha⁻¹; 2514 mm ha⁻¹). Similarly, Sc5 (maize-wheat-mungbean on PBs) improved productivity (+ 32.2%), profitability (+ 57.4%) and saved irrigation water (75.5%) compared to Sc1. In terms of nutritional value, Sc5 was more balanced than other scenarios, and produced 43.8, 27.5 and 259.8% higher protein, carbohydrate and fat yields, respectively, compared to Sc1 (0.93, 8.55 and 0.14 Mg ha⁻¹). Scenario 5 was able to meet the nutrient demand of 19, 23 and 32 additional persons ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ with respect to protein, carbohydrate and fat, respectively, compared to Sc1. The highest protein water productivity (~ 0.31 kg protein m⁻³ water) was recorded with CA-based soybean-wheat-mungbean (Sc6) system followed by maize-mustard-mungbean on PBs (Sc4) system (~ 0.29 kg protein m⁻³) and lowest under Sc1. Integration of short duration legume (mungbean) improved the system productivity by 17.2% and profitability by 32.1%, while triple gains in irrigation water productivity compared to CT-based systems. In western IGP, maize-wheat-mungbean on PBs was found most productive, profitable and nutritionally rich and efficient system compared to other systems. Therefore, diversification of water intensive cereal rotations with inclusion of legumes and CA-based management optimization can be potential option to ensure nutritious food for the dwelling communities and sustainability of natural resources in the region.

Tailor-made biochar systems: Interdisciplinary evaluations of ecosystem services and farmer livelihoods in tropical agro-ecosystems

Organic matter management is key to sustain ecosystem services provided by soils. However, it is rarely considered in a holistic view, considering local resources, agro-environmental effects and harmonization with farmers' needs. Organic inputs, like compost and biochar, could represent a sustainable solution to massive current challenges associated to the intensification of agriculture, in particular for tropical regions. Here we assess the potential of agricultural residues as a resource for farmer communities in southwestern India to reduce their dependency on external inputs and sustain ecosystem services. We propose a novel joint evaluation of farmers' aspirations together with agro-environmental effects of organic inputs on soils. Our soil quality evaluation showed that biochar alone or with compost did not improve unilaterally soils in the tropics (Anthroposol, Ferralsol and Vertisol). Many organic inputs led to an initial decrease in water-holding capacities of control soils (-27.3%: coconut shell biochar with compost on Anthroposol). Responses to organic matter inputs for carbon were strongest for Ferralsols (+33.4% with rice husk biochar), and mostly positive for Anthroposols and Vertisols (+12.5% to +13.8% respectively). Soil pH responses were surprisingly negative for Ferralsols and only positive if biochar was applied alone (between -5.6% to +1.9%). For Anthroposols and Vertisols, highest increases were achieved with rice husk biochar + vermicomposts (+7.2% and +5.2% respectively). Our socio-economic evaluation showed that farmers with a stronger economical position showed greater interest towards technology like biochar (factor 1.3 to 1.6 higher for farmers cultivating Anthroposols and/or Vertisols compared to Ferralsols), while poorer farmers more skepticism, which may lead to an increased economical gap within rural communities if technologies are not implemented with long-term guidance. These results advocate for an interdisciplinary evaluation of agricultural technology prior to its implementation as a development tool in the field.

A Framework for Addressing the Twin Challenges of COVID-19 and Climate Change for Sustainable Agriculture and Food Security in South Asia

Climate change has begun to ravage agriculture and threaten food security in many parts of the world. The novel coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) has further disrupted agricultural activities and supply chains and has become a serious threat for public health. Like in many developing countries, South Asian farmers are now facing the double challenge of addressing the impacts of a changing climate and managing the disruptions caused by COVID-19. Despite growing concern, there is limited understanding of how climate change, public health, and COVID-19 interact, and of the possible pathways to achieving a climate-friendly recovery from COVID-19 to achieve food and nutrition security. In view of this, this paper explores the multifaceted challenges that farmers are now facing in South Asia due to climate change and the disruption caused by COVID-19 from the agricultural and food security lens. The analysis reveals that the complex interactions of COVID-19 and climate change have impacted all dimensions of food security. These interlinkages demand an integrated approach in dealing with food, public health, and climate change to harness synergies and minimize trade-offs between food production, public health, and climate mitigation. I present a framework to address the immediate challenge of COVID-19 and the longer-term challenge of anthropogenic climate change. Key elements of the framework include the strengthening health sector response capacities, strengthening of local and regional food systems, making agriculture resilient to pandemics, adopting flexible and smart approaches—including the implementation of climate-smart agricultural interventions on different scales, promotion of appropriate research and innovation, and the integration of short-term support to address the challenges of COVID-19 to build long-term productivity, and resilience of food systems by investing on natural capital. This framework would enable policy makers to choose the appropriate policy responses at different scales, to address these twin challenges of COVID-19 and climate change.

Life expectancy and agricultural environmental impacts in Addis Ababa can be improved through optimized plant and animal protein consumption

In Ethiopia, children and adults face a double burden of malnutrition, with undernutrition and stunting coexisting with non-communicable diseases. Here we use a framework of comparative risk assessment, local dietary surveys and relative risks from large observational studies to quantify the health and environmental impacts of meeting adult and child recommended daily protein intakes in urban Addis Ababa. We find that plant-based foods, especially legumes, would have the lowest environmental impact and substantially increase life expectancy in adults, while animal-source proteins could be beneficial for children. This context-specific approach-accounting for regional constraints and trade-offs-could aid policymakers in developing culturally appropriate, nutritionally adequate and sustainable dietary recommendations.