Shock propagation from the Russia-Ukraine conflict on international multilayer food production network determines global food availability

The lasting effects of famine

Early exposure to food scarcity in Ukraine increases diabetes risk in later life.

Validation of a digital food frequency questionnaire for the Northern Sweden Diet Database

BACKGROUND

Dietary habits strongly influence health, with poor diets contributing to numerous deaths annually. Addressing this requires improved dietary habits and consistent monitoring thereof. In northern Sweden, a validated food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) has been used for decades, but trends show that its ability to accurately measure intake has diminished. With changing eating habits and food supply, updating the FFQ was crucial, leading to the development of FFQ2020. This study assessed FFQ2020's relative validity using 24-hour recalls and evaluated its reproducibility.

METHODS

Participants were recruited from one of the northern-Sweden population-based health screenings and by advertising. Food intake was registered in an electronic food frequency questionnaire (FFQ2020) (test instrument) and reference data were obtained by six repeated electronic 24-hour dietary recalls (24HDR). Intakes of single foods were aggregated into food groups and healthy diet index scores, and daily energy and nutrient intakes were estimated. Results from the two methods were described and tested in univariate analyses and correlation tests, Bland Altman plots, cross-classification validity, and intra-class correlation analyses.

RESULTS

Totally, 628 adults were invited to participate in the study. Of these, 320 joined, and 244 completed at least four 24HDRs. The median intakes in food groups, as well as the mean index scores and estimated nutrient intakes, were largely similar between the FFQ2020 and 24HDR recordings. The correlation coefficients between the two assessments ranged from 0.253 to 0.693 for food groups, 0.520 to 0.614 for diet indices, and 0.340 to 0.629 for energy and nutrients. Intra-class correlation coefficients indicated at least good reproducibility for intakes of food groups, diet index scores, and nutrients. Generally, Bland-Altman plots did not reveal any gross systematic disagreement between the two methods for any of the assessments. However, there were single observations located outside the upper or lower 95% confidence interval (CI) limits for the difference between FFQ2020 and the 24HDR recordings.

CONCLUSION

In concert, the results suggest that the relative validity and reproducibility of FFQ2020 are acceptable for trend analyses and group comparisons in large-scale studies but also that extended reference periods would improve the precision of less frequently consumed foods.

Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on International Staple Agrifood Trade Networks

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a growing concern worldwide and poses serious threats to regional and global food security. Using monthly trade data for maize, rice, and wheat from 2016/1 to 2023/12, this paper constructs three international crop trade networks and an aggregate international food trade network. We aim to examine the structural changes following the occurrence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We find significant shifts in the number of edges, average in-degree, density, and efficiency in the third quarter of 2022, particularly in the international wheat trade network. Additionally, we have shown that political reasons have caused more pronounced changes in the trade connections between the economies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Russia than with Ukraine. This paper could provide insights into the negative impact of geopolitical conflicts on the global food system and encourage a series of effective strategies to mitigate the negative impact of the conflict on global food trade.

Safeguarding China's long-term sustainability against systemic disruptors

China's long-term sustainability faces socioeconomic and environmental uncertainties. We identify five key systemic risk drivers, called disruptors, which could push China into a polycrisis: pandemic disease, ageing and shrinking population, deglobalization, climate change, and biodiversity loss. Using an integrated simulation model, we quantify the effects of these disruptors on the country's long-term sustainability framed by 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Here we show that ageing and shrinking population, and climate change would be the two most influential disruptors on China's long-term sustainability. The compound effects of all disruptors could result in up to 2.1 and 7.0 points decline in the China's SDG score by 2030 and 2050, compared to the baseline with no disruptors and no additional sustainability policies. However, an integrated policy portfolio involving investment in education, healthcare, energy transition, water-use efficiency, ecological conservation and restoration could promote resilience against the compound effects and significantly improve China's long-term sustainability.

The theory of the investment development path and agriculture in Eastern Europe

The outdated investment development path results in Eastern Europe and the lack of focus on the agricultural sector necessitated this study. The generalised least squares estimator employed countries from 1993 to 2021 for agricultural sector data on 17 Eastern Europe. Eastern European agriculture is in the early phase of stage IV of the investment development path, consistent with the theory of the investment development path. Human capital enhanced net foreign direct investment. Agricultural trade openness, exchange rate, and inflation did not influence net foreign direct investment. Developed and transition countries in Eastern Europe were not distinguished regarding net foreign direct investment. Eastern European countries must increase agricultural growth relative to population growth. This would increase agricultural development. The increased income can be saved and channelled into domestic investments to spur additional growth. This would make capital available for export. The growth in human capital must be sustained to enhance technical know-how in agriculture that would accompany agricultural capital export. Agricultural sector managers of Eastern European countries must focus on enhancing the sector's supervisory and regulatory functions. The goal should be to reduce the costs of doing agricultural business through effective facilitation towards efficient agricultural markets.

Multi-disciplinary strategy to optimize irrigation efficiency in irrigated agriculture

Equilibrium among water, food, energy, and climate actions is necessary for life to exist, quality, and sustainability. This article explored how to ensure sustainability, and equilibrium in the irrigation processes by proposing irrigation equilibrium indicators (IEIs) for sustainable irrigated agriculture (SIA). The primary purpose of IEIs is to achieve a state of sustainable climate and environmental balance. The pressures driving agriculture and irrigation professionals to enhance the irrigation scheme performance are tremendous in all agricultural communities. Monitoring, assessment, and improvement of agriculture practices and irrigation schemes for enhancing the Climate, water, food, and energy (CWFE) nexus is a must. As an auspicious climate action, IEIs were developed to enhance the irrigation scheme's efficiency, within the scope of SIA. Subsequently, water, agricultural, food, and energy productivity could be optimized. Then, the appropriate equilibrium indicators could identify the actual performance of the CWFE nexus as a whole and the performance of each component. The effective irrigation scheme is the backbone of SIA. IEIs could measure the degree of achieving the overall and specific objectives and designated irrigation processes. The ultimate measure of equilibrium is optimizing sustainable agricultural yields and productivity, ensuring environmental balance, strengthening life quality, and maximizing economic returns.