A new score for predicting neonatal very low birth weight mortality risk in the NEOCOSUR South American Network

Prevalence and risk factors associated with the need for surgical intervention due to necrotizing enterocolitis in very low birth weight infants

INTRODUCTION

Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is one of the most common gastrointestinal emergencies affecting very low birth weight (VLBW) infants with an incidence of 6-15 %. Early recognition is crucial. Mortality is high and variable (30-50 %). Those requiring surgical intervention have a higher mortality rate than those who receive medical treatment.

OBJECTIVES

1) To assess the prevalence of surgical NEC and associated risk factors 2) To compare outcomes based on the type of treatment required 3) To estimate the mortality associated with NEC and surgical NEC.

METHODS

A multicentre retrospective cohort study was designed (level II), including VLBW infants born between 2011 and 2020 in Centers of the Neocosur Network. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate risk factors associated with the need for surgery.

RESULTS

NEC was diagnosed in 1679 (10.4 %) of 16,131 births in this period. The prevalence of surgery was 25 % (95 % CI 23-27 %). In multivariable analysis, variables associated with an increased risk of surgery requirement were birth weight <750 g (aOR 1.73-95%CI 1.2-2.5) and receiving antenatal antibiotics (aOR 1.54-95%CI 1.09-2.74). Those requiring surgery had significantly higher morbidity and mortality than the ones receiving medical treatment.

CONCLUSION

In VLBW infants with NEC, lower birth weight and antenatal antibiotics administration were independently associated with the need for surgical intervention.

Post-transport TOPS score as a predictive marker of mortality among transported neonates and its comparative analysis with SNAP-II PE

Aim

Multiple parameters are available to predict the outcome of critically sick neonates admitted in neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). Main aim of the study is to validate the role of TOPS, especially the post-transport TOPS score as a simplified assessment of neonatal acute physiology in predicting mortality among transported neonates admitted at level III NICU. Also, to compare the efficiency of post transport TOPS score with SNAP II PE in predicting mortality.

Methods

A prospective study carried out with 85 neonates transported from various primary health care centres to level III NICU. Physiological status of the neonates was assessed with the help of pre and post transport TOPS scores. Post-transport TOPS score was recorded immediately after the admission and SNAP II PE within 24 h of admission at level III NICU. Receiver operating characteristics analysis was performed to observe the mortality prediction efficiency of TOPS score and was compared with SNAP II PE.

Results

64 neonates were died due to asphyxia and preterm birth (32%) related complications. Strong significant association with the mortality rate was found between the total post transport TOPS score (0.001) and SNAP II PE (0.003). The AUC, sensitivity and specificity of post transport TOPS score for a cut-off value ≤7 were 0.900, 87.5% and 80% and significant (<0.001) and for SNAP II PE for a cut-off value >12 were 0.913, 75.5% and 100% and is significant (<0.001).

Conclusion

TOPS score, especially the post transport TOPS score has an equally good prediction capacity of mortality similar like SNAP II PE among mobilised critically ill neonates. Hence, the TOPS score can be used as a simple and effective method to predict mortality risk among transported neonates immediately after admission at level III NICU.

Prognostic Models Predicting Mortality in Preterm Infants: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

CONTEXT

Prediction models can be a valuable tool in performing risk assessment of mortality in preterm infants.

OBJECTIVE

Summarizing prognostic models for predicting mortality in very preterm infants and assessing their quality.

DATA SOURCES

Medline was searched for all articles (up to June 2020).

STUDY SELECTION

All developed or externally validated prognostic models for mortality prediction in liveborn infants born <32 weeks' gestation and/or <1500 g birth weight were included.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data were extracted by 2 independent authors. Risk of bias (ROB) and applicability assessment was performed by 2 independent authors using Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool.

RESULTS

One hundred forty-two models from 35 studies reporting on model development and 112 models from 33 studies reporting on external validation were included. ROB assessment revealed high ROB in the majority of the models, most often because of inadequate (reporting of) analysis. Internal and external validation was lacking in 41% and 96% of these models. Meta-analyses revealed an average C-statistic of 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.83-0.91) for the Clinical Risk Index for Babies score, 0.87 (95% CI: 0.81-0.92) for the Clinical Risk Index for Babies II score, and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.78-0.92) for the Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology Perinatal Extension II score.

LIMITATIONS

Occasionally, an external validation study was included, but not the development study, because studies developed in the presurfactant era or general NICU population were excluded.

CONCLUSIONS

Instead of developing additional mortality prediction models for preterm infants, the emphasis should be shifted toward external validation and consecutive adaption of the existing prediction models.

The unfinished work of neonatal very low birthweight infants quality improvement: Improving outcomes at a continental level in South America

Neonatal mortality rate varies between 4.2 and 18.6 per thousand by country in South America. There is little information regarding the outcomes of very low birth weight infants in the region and mortality rates are extremely variable ranging from 6% to over 50%. This group may represent up to 50-70% of the neonatal mortality and approximately 25-30% of infant mortality. Some initiatives, like the NEOCOSUR Network, have systematically collected and analyzed epidemiological information on VLBW infants' outcomes in the region. Over a 16-year period, survival without major morbidity improved from 37 to 44%. However, mortality has remained almost unchanged at approximately 27%, despite an increase in the implementation of the best available evidence in perinatal practices over time. Implementing quality improvement initiatives in the continent is particularly challenging but represents a great opportunity considering that there is a wide margin for progress in both care and outcomes.

Factors Associated with Survival and Survival without Major Morbidity in Very Preterm Infants in Two Neonatal Networks: SEN1500 and NEOCOSUR

INTRODUCTION

Very low-birth weight (VLBW) infants represent a high-risk population for morbidity and mortality in the neonatal period. Variability in practices and outcomes between centers has been acknowledged. Multicenter benchmarking studies are useful to detect areas of improvement and constitute an interesting research tool.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to determine the perinatal variables and interventions associated with survival and survival without major morbidity in VLBW infants and compare the performance of 2 large networks.

METHODS

This is a prospective study analyzing data collected in 2 databases, the Spanish SEN1500 and the South American NEOCOSUR networks, from January 2013 to December 2016. Inborn patients, from 240 to 306 weeks of gestational age (GA) were included. Hazard ratios for survival and survival without major morbidity until the first hospital discharge or transfer to another facility were studied by using Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

A total of 10,565 patients, 6,120 (57.9%) from SEN1500 and 4,445 (42.1%) from NEOCOSUR, respectively, were included. In addition to GA, birth weight, small for gestational age (SGA), female sex, and multiple gestation, less invasive resuscitation, and the network of origin were significant independent factors influencing survival (aHR [SEN1500 vs. NEOCOSUR]: 1.20 [95% CI: 1.15-1.26] and survival without major morbidity: 1.34 [95% CI: 1.26-1.43]). Great variability in outcomes between centers was also found within each network.

CONCLUSIONS

After adjusting for covariates, GA, birth weight, SGA, female sex, multiple gestation, less invasive resuscitation, and the network of origin showed an independent effect on outcomes. Determining the causes of these differences deserves further study.

Prediction of mortality in very low birth weight neonates in Spain

Objective

Predictive models for preterm infant mortality have been developed internationally, albeit not valid for all populations. This study aimed to develop and validate different mortality predictive models, using Spanish data, to be applicable to centers with similar morbidity and mortality.

Methods

Infants born alive, admitted to NICU (BW<1500 g or GA<30 w), and registered in the SEN1500 database, were included. There were two time periods; development of the predictive models (2009–2012) and validation (2013–2015). Three models were produced; prenatal (1), first 24 hours of life (2), and whilst admitted (3). For the statistical analysis, hospital mortality was the dependent variable. Significant variables were used in multivariable regression models. Specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, and area under the curve (AUC), for all models, were calculated.

Results

Out of 14953 included newborns, 2015 died; 373 (18.5%) in their first 24 hours, 1315 (65.3%) during the first month, and 327 (16.2%) thereafter, before discharge. In the development stage, mortality prediction AUC was 0.834 (95% CI: 0.822–0.846) (p<0.001) in model 1 and 0.872 (95% CI: 0.860–0.884) (p<0.001) in model 2. Model 3’s AUC was 0.989 (95% CI: 0.983–0.996) (p<0.001) and 0.942 (95% CI: 0.929–0.956) (p<0.001) during the 0–30 and >30 days of life, respectively. During validation, models 1 and 2 showed moderate concordance, whilst that of model 3 was good.

Conclusion

Using dynamic models to predict individual mortality can improve outcome estimations. Development of models in the prenatal period, first 24 hours, and during hospital admission, cover key stages of mortality prediction in preterm infants.

Comparing mortality risk models in VLBW and preterm infants: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To compare the prognostic accuracy of six neonatal illness severity scores (CRIB, CRIB II, SNAP, SNAP II, SNAP-PE, and SNAP-PE II), birthweight (BW), and gestational age (GA) for predicting pre-discharge mortality among very low birth weight (VLBW) infants (<1500 g) and very preterm infants (<32 weeks' gestational age).

STUDY DESIGN

PubMed, EMBASE, and Scopus were the data sources searched for studies published before January 2019. Data were extracted, pooled, and analyzed using random-effects models and reported as AUC with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Of 1659 screened studies, 24 met inclusion criteria. CRIB was the most discriminate for predicting pre-discharge mortality [AUC 0.88 (0.86-0.90)]. GA was the least discriminate [AUC 0.76 (0.72-0.80)].

CONCLUSIONS

Although the original CRIB score was the most accurate predictor of pre-discharge mortality, significant heterogeneity between studies lowers confidence in this pooled estimate. A more precise illness severity score to predict pre-discharge mortality is still needed.

[Prediction of mortality in premature neonates. An updated systematic review]

INTRODUCTION

Extreme prematurity is associated with high mortality rates. The probability of death at different points in time is a priority for professionals and parents, and needs to be established on an individual basis. The aim of this study is to carry out a systematic review of predictive models of mortality in premature infants that have been published recently.

METHODS

A double search was performed for article published in PubMed on models predicting mortality in premature neonates. The population studied were premature neonates with a gestational age of ≤30 weeks and / or a weight at birth of ≤1500g. Works published with new models from June 2010 to July 2019 after a systematic review by Medlock (2011) were included. An assessment was made of the population, characteristics of the model, variables used, measurements of functioning, and validation.

RESULTS

Of the 7744 references (1st search) and 1435 (2nd search) found, 31 works were selected, with 8 new models finally being included. Five models (62.5%) were developed in North America and 2 (25%) in Europe. A sequential model (Ambalavanan) enables predictions of mortality to be made at birth, 7, 28 days of life, and 36 weeks post-menstrual. A multiple logistic regression analysis was performed on 87.5% of the models. The population discrimination was measured using Odds Ratio (75%) and the area under the curve (50%). "Internal Validation" had been carried out on 5 models. Three models can be accessed on-line. There are no predictive models validated in Spain.

CONCLUSIONS

The making of decisions based on predictive models can lead to the care given to the premature infant being more individualised and with a better use of resources. Predictive models of mortality in premature neonates in Spain need to be developed.

Neonatal mortality risk assessment using SNAPPE- II score in a neonatal intensive care unit

Background

There are many scoring systems to predict neonatal mortality and morbidity in neonatal intensive care units (NICU). One of the scoring systems is SNAPPE-II (Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology with Perinatal extension-II). This study was carried out to assess the validity of SNAPPE-II score (Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology with Perinatal Extension-II) as a predictor of neonatal mortality and duration of stay in a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU).

Methods

This prospective, observational study was carried out over a period of 12 months from June 2015 to May 2016. Two hundred fifty five neonates, who met the inclusion criteria admitted to NICU in tertiary care hospital, BPKIHS Hospital, Nepal were enrolled in the study and SNAPPE-II score was calculated. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed to derive the best SNAPPE-II cut-off score for mortality.

Results

A total of 305 neonates were admitted to NICU over a period of one year. Among them, 255 neonates fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Out of 255 neonates, 45 neonates (17.6%) died and 210 were discharged. SNAPPE-II score was significantly higher among neonates who died compared to those who survived [median (IQR) 57 (42–64) vs. 22 (14–32), P < 0.001]. SNAPPE II score had discrimination to predict mortality with area under ROC Curve (AUC): 0.917 (95% CI, 0.854–0.980). The best cut - off score for predicting mortality was 38 with sensitivity 84.4%, specificity 91%, positive predictive value 66.7% and negative predictive value 96.5%. SNAPPE II score could not predict the duration of NICU stay (P = 0.477).

Conclusion

SNAPPE- II is a useful tool to predict neonatal mortality in NICU. The score of 38 may be associated with higher mortality.

Neonatal near miss and mortality: factors associated with life-threatening conditions in newborns at six public maternity hospitals in Southeast Brazil

We aimed to evaluate factors associated with cases of neonatal near miss and neonatal deaths at six public maternity hospitals in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro States, Brazil, in 2011. A prospective hospital-based birth cohort investigated these outcomes among live births with life-threatening conditions. Associations were tested using multinomial logistic regression models with hierarchical levels. High rates of near miss were observed for maternal syphilis (52.2‰ live births) and lack of prenatal care (80.8‰ live births). Maternal black skin color (OR = 1.9; 95%CI: 1.2-3.2), hemorrhage (OR = 2.2; 95%CI: 1.3-3.9), hypertension (OR = 3.0; 95%CI: 2.0-4.4), syphilis (OR = 3.3; 95%CI: 1.5-7.2), lack of prenatal care (OR = 5.6; 95%CI: 2.6-11.7), cesarean section and hospital, were associated with near miss; while hemorrhage (OR = 4.6; 95%CI: 1,8-11.3), lack of prenatal care (OR = 17.4; 95%CI: 6.5-46.8) and hospital, with death. Improvements in access to qualified care for pregnant women and newborns are necessary to reduce neonatal life-threatening conditions.

Impact of maternal diabetes mellitus on mortality and morbidity of very low birth weight infants: a multicenter Latin America study

OBJECTIVES

To compare mortality and morbidity in very low birth weight infants (VLBWI) born to women with and without diabetes mellitus (DM).

METHODS

This was a cohort study with retrospective data collection (2001-2010, n=11.991) from the NEOCOSUR network. Adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for the outcome of neonatal mortality and morbidity as a function of maternal DM. Women with no DM served as the reference group.

RESULTS

The rate of maternal DM was 2.8% (95% CI: 2.5-3.1), but a significant (p=0.019) increase was observed between 2001-2005 (2.4%, 2.1-2.8) and 2006-2010 (3.2%, 2.8-3.6). Mothers with DM were more likely to have received a complete course of prenatal steroids than those without DM. Infants of diabetic mothers had a slightly higher gestational age and birth weight than infants of born to non-DM mothers. Distribution of mean birth weight Z-scores, small for gestational age status, and Apgar scores were similar. There were no significant differences between the two groups regarding respiratory distress syndrome, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, intraventricular hemorrhage, periventricular leukomalacia, and patent ductus arteriosus. Delivery room mortality, total mortality, need for mechanical ventilation, and early-onset sepsis rates were significantly lower in the diabetic group, whereas necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) was significantly higher in infants born to DM mothers. In the logistic regression analysis, NEC grades 2-3 was the only condition independently associated with DM (adjusted OR: 1.65 [95% CI: 1.2 -2.27]).

CONCLUSIONS

VLBWI born to DM mothers do not appear to be at an excess risk of mortality or early morbidity, except for NEC.

Use of risk stratification indices to predict mortality in critically ill children

The complexity and high cost of neonatal and pediatric intensive care has generated increasing interest in developing measures to quantify the severity of patient illness. While these indices may help improve health care quality and benchmark mortality across hospitals, comprehensive understanding of the purpose and the factors that influenced the performance of risk stratification indices is important so that they can be compared fairly and used most appropriately. In this review, we examined 19 indices of risk stratification used to predict mortality in critically ill children and critically analyzed their design, limitations, and purposes. Some pediatric and neonatal models appear well-suited for institutional benchmarking purposes, with relatively brief data acquisition times, limited potential for treatment-related bias, and reliance on diagnostic variables that permit adjustment for case mix. Other models are more suitable for use in clinical trials, as they rely on physiologic variables collected over an extended period, to better capture the interaction between organ systems function and specific therapeutic interventions in acutely ill patients. Irrespective of their clinical or research applications, risk stratification indices must be periodically recalibrated to adjust for changes in clinical practice in order to remain valid outcome predictors in pediatric intensive care units. Longitudinal auditing, education, training, and guidelines development are also critical to ensure fidelity and reproducibility in data reporting.

CONCLUSION

Risk stratification indices are valid tools to describe intensive care unit population and explain differences in mortality.

Infant mortality in a very low birth weight cohort from a public hospital in Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil

OBJECTIVES: to evaluate infant mortality in very low birth weight newborns from a public hospital in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (2002-2006). METHODS: a retrospective cohort study was performed using the probabilistic linkage method to identify infant mortality. Mortality proportions were calculated according to birth weight intervals and period of death. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate overall cumulative survival probability. The association between maternal schooling and survival of very low birth weight infants was evaluated by means of Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for: prenatal care, birth weight, and gestational age. RESULTS: the study included 782 very low birth weight newborns. Of these, (28.6%) died before one year of age. Neonatal mortality was 19.5%, and earlyneonatal mortality was 14.9%. Mortality was highest in the lowest weight group (71.6%). Newborns whose mothers had less than four years of schooling had 2.5 times higher risk of death than those whose mothers had eight years of schooling or more, even after adjusting for intermediate factors. CONCLUSIONS: the results showed higher mortality among very low birth weight infants. Low schooling was an independent predictor of infant death in this low-income population sample.

Prediction of mortality in very premature infants: a systematic review of prediction models

Context

Being born very preterm is associated with elevated risk for neonatal mortality. The aim of this review is to give an overview of prediction models for mortality in very premature infants, assess their quality, identify important predictor variables, and provide recommendations for development of future models.

Methods

Studies were included which reported the predictive performance of a model for mortality in a very preterm or very low birth weight population, and classified as development, validation, or impact studies. For each development study, we recorded the population, variables, aim, predictive performance of the model, and the number of times each model had been validated. Reporting quality criteria and minimum methodological criteria were established and assessed for development studies.

Results

We identified 41 development studies and 18 validation studies. In addition to gestational age and birth weight, eight variables frequently predicted survival: being of average size for gestational age, female gender, non-white ethnicity, absence of serious congenital malformations, use of antenatal steroids, higher 5-minute Apgar score, normal temperature on admission, and better respiratory status. Twelve studies met our methodological criteria, three of which have been externally validated. Low reporting scores were seen in reporting of performance measures, internal and external validation, and handling of missing data.

Conclusions

Multivariate models can predict mortality better than birth weight or gestational age alone in very preterm infants. There are validated prediction models for classification and case-mix adjustment. Additional research is needed in validation and impact studies of existing models, and in prediction of mortality in the clinically important subgroup of infants where age and weight alone give only an equivocal prognosis.

Early nutrition mediates the influence of severity of illness on extremely LBW infants

To evaluate whether differences in early nutritional support provided to extremely premature infants mediate the effect of critical illness on later outcomes, we examined whether nutritional support provided to "more critically ill" infants differs from that provided to "less critically ill" infants during the initial weeks of life, and if, after controlling for critical illness, that difference is associated with growth and rates of adverse outcomes. One thousand three hundred sixty-six participants in the NICHD Neonatal Research Network parenteral glutamine supplementation randomized controlled trial who were alive on day of life 7 were stratified by whether they received mechanical ventilation for the first 7 d of life. Compared with more critically ill infants, less critically ill infants received significantly more total nutritional support during each of the first 3 wk of life, had significantly faster growth velocities, less moderate/severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia, less late-onset sepsis, less death, shorter hospital stays, and better neurodevelopmental outcomes at 18-22 mo corrected age. Rates of necrotizing enterocolitis were similar. Adjusted analyses using general linear and logistic regression modeling and a formal mediation framework demonstrated that the influence of critical illness on the risk of adverse outcomes was mediated by total daily energy intake during the first week of life.

Improving the quality of care for infants: a cluster randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

We developed and tested a new method, called the Evidence-based Practice for Improving Quality method, for continuous quality improvement.

METHODS

We used cluster randomization to assign 6 neonatal intensive care units (ICUs) to reduce nosocomial infection (infection group) and 6 ICUs to reduce bronchopulmonary dysplasia (pulmonary group). We included all infants born at 32 or fewer weeks gestation. We collected baseline data for 1 year. Practice change interventions were implemented using rapid-change cycles for 2 years.

RESULTS

The difference in incidence trends (slopes of trend lines) between the ICUs in the infection and pulmonary groups was - 0.0020 (95% confidence interval [CI] - 0.0007 to 0.0004) for nosocomial infection and - 0.0006 (95% CI - 0.0011 to - 0.0001) for bronchopulmonary dysplasia.

INTERPRETATION

The results suggest that the Evidence-based Practice for Improving Quality method reduced bronchopulmonary dysplasia in the neonatal ICU and that it may reduce nosocomial infection.

Simplified age-weight mortality risk classification for very low birth weight infants in low-resource settings

OBJECTIVE

To identify a valid neonatal mortality risk prediction score feasible for use in developing countries.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective study of 467 neonates, < or =1500 g, enrolled in trials during 1998 to 2005 at tertiary care children's hospitals in Dhaka, Bangladesh, and Cairo, Egypt, and a community field site in Sarlahi District, Nepal. We derived simplified mortality risk scores and compared their predictive accuracy with the modified Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB) II. Outcome was death during hospital stay (Dhaka and Cairo) or end of the neonatal period (Nepal).

RESULTS

The area under the curve receiver operating characteristic was 0.62, 0.71, 0.68, and 0.69 on the basis of the (a) CRIB II applied to the Dhaka-Cairo dataset; (b) an 18-category, simplified age, weight, sex score; (c) a binary-risk simplified age-weight (SAW) classification derived from the Dhaka-Cairo dataset; and (d) external validation of the binary-risk SAW classification in the Nepal dataset, respectively. Mortality risk prediction with the SAW classification on the basis of gestational age (< or =29 weeks) or weight (<1000 g) was improved (P = .048) compared with CRIB II.

CONCLUSIONS

The SAW classification is a markedly simplified mortality risk prediction score for use in identifying high-risk, very low birth weight neonates in developing country settings for whom urgent referral is indicated.

CRIB, CRIB-II, birth weight or gestational age to assess mortality risk in very low birth weight infants?

AIM

The mortality risk of very low birth weight (VLBW) (<1500 g) infants has been estimated by the Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB). Superior discriminatory power has been claimed for the revised CRIB-II score based on birth weight, gestational age, sex, temperature and base excess (BE) at admission. This analysis compared the power of CRIB, CRIB-II, birth weight and gestational age to predict death prior to discharge.

METHODS

Of 1485 consecutive VLBW infants admitted between January 1, 1991 and December 31, 2006, who survived for >or=12 h, CRIB and CRIB-II calculations were possible in 1358 infants (92%). Predictive power of variables was assessed by comparing areas under receiver operator characteristics curves (AUC).

RESULTS

CRIB (AUC [95% confidence intervals] 0.82 [0.78-0.86]) performed significantly better than birth weight (0.74 [0.69-0.79]) or gestational age (0.71 [0.66-0.76]), while CRIB-II (0.69 [0.64-0.74]) was rather inferior to CRIB and did not differ significantly from birth weight or gestational age. No substantial changes were seen when substituting worst BE during the first 12 h of life for BE at admission when calculating CRIB-II.

CONCLUSIONS

CRIB-II does not result in improved estimation of mortality risk in VLBW infants as compared to CRIB, birth weight or gestational age.