Climate change as an unexpected co-factor promoting coral eating seastar (Acanthaster planci) outbreaks

Crown-of-thorns seastar (Acanthaster spp.) feeding ecology across species and regions

The coral predators, crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS, Acanthaster spp.) remain a major cause of extensive and widespread coral loss in Indo-Pacific coral reefs. With increased phylogenetic understanding of these seastars, at least five species appear to be present across different regions. We compare the feeding ecology of these species. Where acroporid corals are prevalent, Acanthaster spp. often exhibit a preference for these corals, with Porites being least preferred, as seen in most species including Acanthaster planci in the northern Indian Ocean and Acanthaster cf. solaris in the west Pacific. In the eastern Pacific, where Acropora is largely absent, Acanthaster cf. ellisii prey on a range of coral species, including Porites. Coral predation by COTS is influenced by several factors including food availability, coral nutritional value, protective crustaceans and coral defenses, with differences in feeding ecology and behaviour emerging across the different COTS species. Feeding behaviour of COTS can act to increase coral species richness by reducing the dominance of fast-growing species. In outbreaking populations, COTS impacts reef systems by reducing live coral cover, eroding reef complexity and causing shifts in reef trophic structure. Where data are available, we synthesise and contrast the feeding preferences and foraging behaviour of Acanthaster species, and their impact on coral assemblages across the different species and regions. For areas where focal predation on Acropora occurs, also the fastest growing coral with the greatest recovery potential following mass mortality events, the combination of climate change and COTS outbreaks presents an imminent threat to coral reefs. This is exacerbated by the dietary flexibility of Acanthaster species. The impacts of heatwaves, COTS and other stressors are creating a negative feedback loop accelerating coral reef decline.

Evaluating the effects of climate change and chemical, physical, and biological stressors on nearshore coral reefs: A case study in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

An understanding of the combined effects of climate change (CC) and other anthropogenic stressors, such as chemical exposures, is essential for improving ecological risk assessments of vulnerable ecosystems. In the Great Barrier Reef, coral reefs are under increasingly severe duress from increasing ocean temperatures, acidification, and cyclone intensities associated with CC. In addition to these stressors, inshore reef systems, such as the Mackay-Whitsunday coastal zone, are being impacted by other anthropogenic stressors, including chemical, nutrient, and sediment exposures related to more intense rainfall events that increase the catchment runoff of contaminated waters. To illustrate an approach for incorporating CC into ecological risk assessment frameworks, we developed an adverse outcome pathway network to conceptually delineate the effects of climate variables and photosystem II herbicide (diuron) exposures on scleractinian corals. This informed the development of a Bayesian network (BN) to quantitatively compare the effects of historical (1975-2005) and future projected climate on inshore hard coral bleaching, mortality, and cover. This BN demonstrated how risk may be predicted for multiple physical and biological stressors, including temperature, ocean acidification, cyclones, sediments, macroalgae competition, and crown of thorns starfish predation, as well as chemical stressors such as nitrogen and herbicides. Climate scenarios included an ensemble of 16 downscaled models encompassing current and future conditions based on multiple emission scenarios for two 30-year periods. It was found that both climate-related and catchment-related stressors pose a risk to these inshore reef systems, with projected increases in coral bleaching and coral mortality under all future climate scenarios. This modeling exercise can support the identification of risk drivers for the prioritization of management interventions to build future resilient reefs. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:401-418. © 2023 Norwegian Institute for Water Research and The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Juvenile waiting stage crown-of-thorns sea stars are resilient in heatwave conditions that bleach and kill corals

The juveniles of predatory sea stars can remain in their recruitment-nursery habitat for some time before their ontogenetic shift to the adult habitat and diet. These small juveniles are vulnerable to a range of factors with their sensitivity amplified by climate change-driven ocean warming. We investigate the thermal tolerance of the waiting stage herbivorous juveniles of the keystone coral predator, the crown-of-thorns sea star (COTS, Acanthaster sp.), in context with the degree heating weeks (DHW) model that predicts coral bleaching and mass mortality. In temperature treatments ranging from +1 to 3°C in prolonged heatwave acclimation conditions, the juveniles exhibited ~100% survival in DHW scenarios that trigger coral bleaching (4 DHW), resulting in mass mortality of corals (8 DHW) and extreme conditions well beyond those that kill corals (12 DHW). This indicates that herbivorous juvenile COTS are far more resistant to heatwave conditions than the coral prey of the adults. The juveniles exhibited higher activity (righting) and metabolic rate after weeks in increased temperature. In separate acute temperature experiments, the upper thermal limit of the juveniles was 34-36°C. In a warming world, juvenile COTS residing in their coral rubble nursery habitat will benefit from an increase in the extent of this habitat due to coral mortality. The juveniles have potential for long-term persistence as herbivores as they wait for live coral to recover before becoming coral predators, thereby serving as a proximate source of COTS outbreaks on reefs already in a tenuous state due to climate change.

Phytoplankton community structure and environmental factors during the outbreak of Crown-of-Thorns Starfish in Xisha Islands, South China Sea

The "larval starvation hypothesis" proposed that the growing frequency of Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (CoTS) outbreaks could be attributed to increased availability of phytoplankton. However, comprehensive field investigation on the living environment of CoTS larvae and the availability of phytoplankton are still lacking. A cruise was conducted in June 2022 in Xisha Islands, South China Sea, to study the interaction between environmental conditions and phytoplankton communities during CoTS outbreak period. The average concentrations of dissolved inorganic phosphorus (0.05 ± 0.01 μmol L-1), dissolved inorganic nitrogen (0.66 ± 0.8 μmol L-1) and chlorophyll a (0.05 ± 0.05 μg L-1) suggested that phytoplankton may be limited for CoTS larvae in Xisha Islands. Microscopic observation and high-throughput sequencing were used to study the composition and structure of the phytoplankton communities. Bacillariophyta predominated in phytoplankton communities with the highest abundance and species richness. 29 dominant species, including 4 species with size-range preferred by CoTS larvae, were identified in Xisha Islands. The diversity index of all stations indicated a species-rich and structure-stable phytoplankton community in Xisha Islands during the period of CoTS outbreak, which may contribute to CoTS outbreak. These findings revealed the structure of phytoplankton community and environmental factors in the study area during CoTS outbreak, providing the groundwork for future research into the causes and processes of CoTS outbreak.

The effect of catchment load reductions on water quality in the crown-of-thorn starfish outbreak initiation zone

Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (CoTS) population outbreaks contribute to coral cover decline on Indo-Pacific reefs. On the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), enhanced catchment nutrient loads are hypothesised to increase phytoplankton food for CoTS larvae in the outbreak initiation zone. This study examines whether catchment load reductions will improve water quality in this zone during the larval period. We defined the i) initiation zone's spatial extent; ii) larval stage's temporal extent; and iii) water quality thresholds related to larval food, from published information. We applied these to model simulations, developed to quantify the effect of catchment load reductions on GBR water quality (Baird et al., 2021), and found a consistently weak response of chlorophyll-a, total organic nitrogen and large zooplankton concentrations in the initiation zone. Model results indicate marine and atmospheric forcing are more likely to control the planktonic biomass in this zone, even during major flooding events purported to precede CoTS outbreaks.

Impacts of ocean warming on echinoderms: A meta-analysis

Rising ocean temperatures are threatening marine species and populations worldwide, and ectothermic taxa are particularly vulnerable. Echinoderms are an ecologically important phylum of marine ectotherms and shifts in their population dynamics can have profound impacts on the marine environment. The effects of warming on echinoderms are highly variable across controlled laboratory-based studies. Accordingly, synthesis of these studies will facilitate the better understanding of broad patterns in responses of echinoderms to ocean warming. Herein, a meta-analysis incorporating the results of 85 studies (710 individual responses) is presented, exploring the effects of warming on various performance predictors. The mean responses of echinoderms to all magnitudes of warming were compared across multiple biological responses, ontogenetic life stages, taxonomic classes, and regions, facilitated by multivariate linear mixed effects models. Further models were conducted, which only incorporated responses to warming greater than the projected end-of-century mean annual temperatures at the collection sites. This meta-analysis provides evidence that ocean warming will generally accelerate metabolic rate (+32%) and reduce survival (-35%) in echinoderms, and echinoderms from subtropical (-9%) and tropical (-8%) regions will be the most vulnerable. The relatively high vulnerability of echinoderm larvae to warming (-20%) indicates that this life stage may be a significant developmental bottleneck in the near-future, likely reducing successful recruitment into populations. Furthermore, asteroids appear to be the class of echinoderms that are most negatively affected by elevated temperature (-30%). When considering only responses to magnitudes of warming representative of end-of-century climate change projections, the negative impacts on asteroids, tropical species and juveniles were exacerbated (-51%, -34% and -40% respectively). The results of these analyses enable better predictions of how keystone and invasive echinoderm species may perform in a warmer ocean, and the possible consequences for populations, communities and ecosystems.

Variable food alters responses of larval crown-of-thorns starfish to ocean warming but not acidification

Phytoplankton abundance is decreasing and becoming more variable as the ocean climate changes. We examine how low, high, and variable phytoplankton food supply affected the survival, development, and growth of larval crown-of-thorns starfish, Acanthaster sp. exposed to combined warming (26, 30 °C) and acidification (pH 8.0, 7.6). Larvae fed a low food ration are smaller, and develop slower and with more abnormalities than larvae fed a high ration. Larvae fed a variable food supply (low, followed by high ration) overcome the negative effects of low food on development rate and occurrence of abnormalities, but are 16-17% smaller than larvae fed the high ration continuously. Acidification (pH 7.6) slows growth and development and increases abnormalities regardless of the food regime. Warming slows growth and development, but these effects are mitigated by high food availability. As tropical oceans warm, the success of crown-of-thorns starfish larvae may depend on the abundance of their phytoplankton prey.

Settlement cue selectivity by larvae of the destructive crown-of-thorns starfish

Population irruptions of crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS) cause extensive degradation of coral reefs, threatening the structure and function of these important ecosystems. For population irruptions to initiate and spread, large numbers of planktonic larvae have to successfully transition into their benthic life-history stage (i.e. settlement), whereby larval behaviour and the presence of settlement cues may shape spatial patterns of recruitment and adult densities. Our results demonstrate that a wide range of coralline algae species induce COTS larvae to settle; however, the capacity to promote settlement success varied manyfold among algal species, ranging from greater than 90% in Melyvonnea cf. madagascariensis to less than 2% in Lithophyllum cf. kotschyanum and two Porolithon species at 24 h. Because many coralline algae species that promote high settlement success are prevalent in shallow reef habitats, our findings challenge the hypothesis that COTS larvae predominantly settle in deep water. Considering both larval behaviour and algal ecology, this study highlights the ecological significance of coralline algae communities in driving recruitment patterns of COTS. More specifically, the local abundance of highly inductive coralline algae (especially, Melyvonnea cf. madagascariensis) may explain some of the marked spatial heterogeneity of COTS populations and the incidence of population irruptions.

Crown of thorns starfish life-history traits contribute to outbreaks, a continuing concern for coral reefs

Crown of thorns starfish (COTS, Acanthaster sp.) are notorious for their destructive consumption of coral that decimates tropical reefs, an attribute unique among tropical marine invertebrates. Their populations can rapidly increase from 0–1 COTS ha⁻¹ to more than 10–1000 COTS ha⁻¹ in short order causing a drastic change to benthic communities and reducing the functional and species diversity of coral reef ecosystems. Population outbreaks were first identified to be a significant threat to coral reefs in the 1960s. Since then, they have become one of the leading causes of coral loss along with coral bleaching. Decades of research and significant investment in Australia and elsewhere, particularly Japan, have been directed towards identifying, understanding, and managing the potential causes of outbreaks and designing population control methods. Despite this, the drivers of outbreaks remain elusive. What is becoming increasingly clear is that the success of COTS is tied to their inherent biological traits, especially in early life. Survival of larval and juvenile COTS is likely to be enhanced by their dietary flexibility and resilience to variable food conditions as well as their phenotypically plastic growth dynamics, all magnified by the extreme reproductive potential of COTS. These traits enable COTS to capitalise on anthropogenic disturbances to reef systems as well as endure less favourable conditions.

Ecological Leverage Points: Species Interactions Amplify the Physiological Effects of Global Environmental Change in the Ocean

Marine ecosystems are increasingly impacted by global environmental changes, including warming temperatures, deoxygenation, and ocean acidification. Marine scientists recognize intuitively that these environmental changes are translated into community changes via organismal physiology. However, physiology remains a black box in many ecological studies, and coexisting species in a community are often assumed to respond similarly to environmental stressors. Here, we emphasize how greater attention to physiology can improve our ability to predict the emergent effects of ocean change. In particular, understanding shifts in the intensity and outcome of species interactions such as competition and predation requires a sharpened focus on physiological variation among community members and the energetic demands and trophic mismatches generated by environmental changes. Our review also highlights how key species interactions that are sensitive to environmental change can operate as ecological leverage points through which small changes in abiotic conditions are amplified into large changes in marine ecosystems.

Remoteness does not enhance coral reef resilience

Remote coral reefs are thought to be more resilient to climate change due to their isolation from local stressors like fishing and pollution. We tested this hypothesis by measuring the relationship between local human influence and coral community resilience. Surprisingly, we found no relationship between human influence and resistance to disturbance and some evidence that areas with greater human development may recover from disturbance faster than their more isolated counterparts. Our results suggest remote coral reefs are imperiled by climate change, like so many other geographically isolated ecosystems, and are unlikely to serve as effective biodiversity arks. Only drastic and rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions will ensure coral survival. Our results also indicate that some reefs close to large human populations were relatively resilient. Focusing research and conservation resources on these more accessible locations has the potential to provide new insights and maximize conservation outcomes.

Synergies between local and climate-driven impacts on coral reefs in the Tropical Pacific: A review of issues and adaptation opportunities

Coral reefs in the tropical Pacific region are exposed to a range of anthropogenic local pressures. Climate change is exacerbating local impacts, causing unprecedented declines in coral reef habitats and bringing negative socio-economic consequences to Pacific communities who depend heavily on coral reefs for food, income and livelihoods. Continued increases in greenhouse gas emissions will drive future climate change, which will accelerate coral reef degradation. Traditional systems of resource governance in Pacific island nations provide a foundation to address local pressures and build reef resilience to climate change. Management and adaptation options should build on the regional diversity of governance systems and traditional knowledge to support community-based initiatives and cross-sectoral cooperation to address local pressures and minimize climate change impacts. Such an inclusive approach will offer enhanced opportunities to develop and implement transformative adaptation solutions, particularly in remote and regional areas where centralized management does not extend.

Color morphs of the coral, Acropora tenuis, show different responses to environmental stress and different expression profiles of fluorescent-protein genes

Corals of the family Acroporidae are key structural components of reefs that support the most diverse marine ecosystems. Due to increasing anthropogenic stresses, coral reefs are in decline. Along the coast of Okinawa, Japan, three different color morphs of Acropora tenuis have been recognized for decades. These include brown (N morph), yellow green (G), and purple (P) forms. The tips of axial polyps of each morph exhibit specific fluorescence spectra. This attribute is inherited asexually, and color morphs do not change seasonally. In Okinawa Prefecture, during the summer of 2017, N and P morphs experienced bleaching, in which many N morphs died. Dinoflagellates (Symbiodiniaceae) are essential partners of scleractinian corals, and photosynthetic activity of symbionts was reduced in N and P morphs. In contrast, G morphs successfully withstood the stress. Examination of the clade and type of Symbiodiniaceae indicated that the three color-morphs host similar sets of Clade-C symbionts, suggesting that beaching of N and P morphs is unlikely attributable to differences in the clade of Symbiodiniaceae the color morphs hosted. Fluorescent proteins play pivotal roles in physiological regulation of corals. Since the A. tenuis genome has been decoded, we identified five genes for green fluorescent proteins (GFPs), two for cyan fluorescent proteins (CFPs), three for red fluorescent proteins (RFPs), and seven genes for chromoprotein (ChrP). A summer survey of gene expression profiles under outdoor aquarium conditions demonstrated that (a) expression of CFP and REP was quite low during the summer in all three morphs, (b) P morphs expressed higher levels of ChrP than N and G morphs, (c) both N and G morphs expressed GFP more highly than P morphs, and (d) GFP expression in N morphs was reduced during summer whereas G morphs maintained high levels of GFP expression throughout the summer. Although further studies are required to understand the biological significance of these color morphs of A. tenuis, our results suggest that thermal stress resistance is modified by genetic mechanisms that coincidentally lead to diversification of color morphs of this coral.

Temperature affects the reproductive outputs of coral-eating starfish Acanthaster spp. after adult exposure to near-future ocean warming and acidification

Outbreaks of the coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish Acanthaster spp. (COTS) have become to be amongst the most severe threats to coral reefs worldwide. Although most research has focused on COTS early development, it remains unclear how COTS populations will keep pace with changing ocean conditions. Since reproduction is a key process contributing to outbreaks, we investigated the reproductive success of adult COTS acclimated for 3-4 months to different treatment combinations of ambient conditions, ocean warming (+2 °C) and acidification (-0.35 pH). Our results suggest that the optimal breeding season in New Caledonia is concentrated around the end of the calendar year, when water temperature reaches >26 °C. We found negative effects of temperature on egg metrics, fertilisation success, and GSI, conflicting with previously documented effects of temperature on echinoderm reproductive outputs. Fertilisation success dropped drastically (more than threefold) with elevated temperature during the late breeding season. In contrast, we detected no effects of near-future acidification conditions on fertilisation success nor GSI. This is the first time that COTS reproduction is compared among individuals acclimated to different conditions of warming and acidification. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for adult exposure to better understand how COTS reproduction may be impacted in the face of global change.

Larval connectivity and water quality explain spatial distribution of crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks across the Great Barrier Reef

Outbreaks of the coral eating crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS; Acanthasts cf. solaris) occur in cyclical waves along the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), contributing significantly to the decline in hard coral cover over the past 30 years. One main difficulty faced by scientists and managers alike, is understanding the relative importance of contributing factors to COTS outbreaks such as increased nutrients and water quality, larval connectivity, fishing pressure, and abiotic conditions. We analysed COTS abundances from the most recent outbreak (2010-2018) using both boosted regression trees and generalised additive models to identify key predictors of COTS outbreaks. We used this approach to predict the suitability of each reef on the GBR for COTS outbreaks at three different levels: (1) reefs with COTS present intermittently (Presence); (2) reefs with COTS widespread and present in most samples and (Prevalence) (3) reefs experiencing outbreak levels of COTS (Outbreak). We also compared the utility of two auto-covariates accounting for spatial autocorrelation among observations, built using weighted inverse distance and weighted larval connectivity to reefs supporting COTS populations, respectively. Boosted regression trees (BRT) and generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) were combined in an ensemble model to reduce the effect of model uncertainty on predictions of COTS presence, prevalence and outbreaks. Our results from best performing models indicate that temperature (Degree Heating Week exposure: relative importance=13.1%) and flood plume exposure (13.0%) are the best predictors of COTS presence, variability in chlorophyll concentration (12.6%) and flood plume exposure (8.2%) best predicted COTS prevalence and larval connectivity potential (22.7%) and minimum sea surface temperature (8.0%) are the best predictors of COTS outbreaks. Whether the reef was open or closed to fishing, however, had no significant effect on either COTS presence, prevalence or outbreaks in BRT results (<0.5%). We identified major hotspots of COTS activity primarily on the mid shelf central GBR and on the southern Swains reefs. This study provides the first empirical comparison of the major hypotheses of COTS outbreaks and the first validated predictions of COTS outbreak potential at the GBR scale incorporating connectivity, nutrients, biophysical and spatial variables, providing a useful aid to management of this pest species on the GBR.

An Investigation into the Genetic History of Japanese Populations of Three Starfish, Acanthaster planci, Linckia laevigata, and Asterias amurensis, Based on Complete Mitochondrial DNA Sequences

Crown-of-thorns starfish, Acanthaster planci (COTS), are common in coral reefs of Indo-Pacific Ocean. Since they are highly fecund predators of corals, periodic outbreaks of COTS cause substantial loss of healthy coral reefs. Using complete mitochondrial DNA sequences, we here examined how COTS outbreaks in the Ryukyu Archipelago, Japan are reflected by the profile of their population genetics. Population genetics of the blue starfish, Linckia laevigata, which lives in the Ryukyu Archipelago, but not break out and the northern Pacific sea star, Asterias amurensis, which lives in colder seawater around the main Islands of Japan, were also examined as controls. Our results showed that As. amurensis has at least two local populations that diverged approximately 4.7 million years ago (MYA), and no genetic exchanges have occurred between the populations since then. Linckia laevigata shows two major populations in the Ryukyu Archipelago that likely diverged ∼6.8 MYA. The two populations, each comprised of individuals collected from coast of the Okinawa Island and those from the Ishigaki Island, suggest the presence of two cryptic species in the Ryukyu Archipelago. On the other hand, population genetics of COTS showed a profile quite different from those of Asterias and Linckia. At least five lineages of COTS have arisen since their divergence ∼0.7 MYA, and each of the lineages is present at the Okinawa Island, Miyako Island, and Ishigaki Island. These results suggest that COTS have experienced repeated genetic bottlenecks that may be associated with or caused by repeated outbreaks.

COTSMod: A spatially explicit metacommunity model of outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish and coral recovery

Outbreaks of the Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS; Acanthaster cf. solaris) have been responsible for 40% of the decline in coral cover on the GBR over the last 35 years. With the intensity and frequency of bleaching and cyclonic disturbances increasing, effectively managing these outbreaks may allow reefs an opportunity to recover from these cumulative impacts. Significant research effort has been directed toward developing regional scale models for COTS outbreaks, but these have yet to be fit explicitly to long term time series at the scale of the entire GBR, nor do previous research efforts incorporate explicit estimates of cumulative disturbance history. We developed a stage-based metapopulation model for COTS at a 1×1km resolution using long-term time series and modelled estimates of COTS larval connectivity, nutrient concentrations and important vital rates estimated from the literature. We coupled this metapopulation model to an existing spatially explicit model of coral cover growth, disturbance and recovery across the GBR from 1996 to 2017 to create a metacommunity model. Our results were validated against a spatially and temporally extensive dataset of COTS and coral cover across the GBR, predicting an average coral decline of 1.3% p.a. across the GBR, and accurately recreating coral cover trajectories (mean prediction error=7.1%) and COTS outbreak classification (accuracy=80%). Sensitivity analyses revealed that overall model accuracy was most sensitive to larval predation (boosted regression tree; relative importance=46.7%) and two parameters defining juvenile density dependent mortality (21.5% and 17.5%). The COTS model underestimated peak COTS densities particularly in the Swains and Townsville sectors of the reef, while overestimating COTS density during non-outbreak years. A better understanding of inter-annual variability in larval connectivity, and regionally variable density dependence for adult COTS life stages may improve model fit during these extreme outbreak events. Our model provides a platform to develop upon, and with improvements to estimates of larval connectivity and larval predation could be used to simulate the effects of implementing varying combinations of COTS interventions. This research highlights the importance of the early life history stages of COTS as drivers of outbreak dynamics, emphasizing the need for further empirical research to estimate these parameters.

Contributions of pre- versus post-settlement processes to fluctuating abundance of crown-of-thorns starfishes (Acanthaster spp.)

Numerous hypotheses have been put forward to account for population outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfishes (CoTS, Acanthaster spp.), which place specific importance on either pre- or post-settlement mechanisms. The purpose of this review is to specifically assess the contributions of pre- versus post-settlement processes in the population dynamics of CoTS. Given the immense reproductive potential of CoTS (>100 million eggs per female), persistent high densities would appear inevitable unless there were significant constraints on larval development, settlement success, and/or early post-settlement growth and survival. In terms of population constraints, pre- and post-settlement processes are both important and have additive effects to suppress densities of juvenile and adult CoTS within reef ecosystems. It is difficult, however, to assess the relative contributions of pre- versus post-settlement processes to population outbreaks, especially given limited data on settlement rates, as well as early post-settlement growth and mortality. Prioritising this research is important to resolve potential effects of anthropogenic activities (e.g., fishing) and habitat degradation on changing population dynamics of CoTS, and will also improve management effectiveness.

Ecosystem-based management of coral reefs under climate change

Coral reefs provide food and livelihoods for hundreds of millions of people as well as harbour some of the highest regions of biodiversity in the ocean. However, overexploitation, land-use change and other local anthropogenic threats to coral reefs have left many degraded. Additionally, coral reefs are faced with the dual emerging threats of ocean warming and acidification due to rising CO 2 emissions, with dire predictions that they will not survive the century. This review evaluates the impacts of climate change on coral reef organisms, communities and ecosystems, focusing on the interactions between climate change factors and local anthropogenic stressors. It then explores the shortcomings of existing management and the move towards ecosystem-based management and resilience thinking, before highlighting the need for climate change-ready marine protected areas (MPAs), reduction in local anthropogenic stressors, novel approaches such as human-assisted evolution and the importance of sustainable socialecological systems. It concludes that designation of climate change-ready MPAs, integrated with other management strategies involving stakeholders and participation at multiple scales such as marine spatial planning, will be required to maximise coral reef resilience under climate change. However, efforts to reduce carbon emissions are critical if the long-term efficacy of local management actions is to be maintained and coral reefs are to survive.

Support for improved quality control but misplaced criticism of GBR science. Reply to viewpoint "The need for a formalised system of Quality Control for environmental policy-science" by P. Larcombe and P. Ridd (Marine Pollution Bulletin 126: 449-461, 2018)

This is a response to the published Viewpoint by Larcombe and Ridd (2018). We agree with Larcombe and Ridd (2018) that scientific merit goes hand in hand with rigorous quality control. However, we are responding here to several points raised by Larcombe and Ridd (2018) which in our view were misrepresented. We describe the formal and effective science review, synthesis and advice processes that are in place for science supporting decision-making in the Great Barrier Reef. We also respond in detail to critiques of selected publications that were used by Larcombe and Ridd (2018) as a case study to illustrate shortcomings in science quality control. We provide evidence that their representation of the published research and arguments to support the statement that "many (…) conclusions are demonstrably incorrect" is based on misinterpretation, selective use of data and over-simplification, and also ignores formal responses to previously published critiques.

Ephemeral and Localized Outbreaks of the Coral Predator Acanthaster cf. solaris in the Southwestern Lagoon of New Caledonia

Mehdi Adjeroud, Mohsen Kayal, Christophe Peignon, Matthieu Juncker, Suzanne C. Mills, Ricardo Beldade, and Pascal Dumas (2018) Outbreaks of the coral predator Acanthaster spp., the crown-of-thorns seastar (COTS), cause major coral declines across the Indo-Pacific. However, the processes surrounding the initiation and propagation of COTS outbreaks are still unclear. We observed COTS outbreak abundances on several mid-shelf and inner-barrier reefs in the southern section of the New Caledonian lagoon, a multi-location initiation event that we expected to precede a broader region-wide disturbance. However, reef monitoring over 3 years revealed the highly localized and ephemeral character of these outbreaks. Outbreaks that were observed at four reef locations at the beginning of the survey simply faded away, without any specific management actions such as culling efforts. We also found no distinct reef biotope on which COTS outbreaks originated, although mid-shelf and inner-shelf barrier reefs seem to be favoured. New Caledonia has been exempted from to widespread regional COTS outbreaks, which is surprising given its proximity to the Australian Great Barrier Reef - a reef complex particularly vulnerable to COTS - and Vanuatu - where large-scale outbreaks were recorded during the same period. The availability of coral prey is probably not a limiting factor for the propagation of COTS outbreaks on New Caledonian reefs, given the high abundance and diversity of coral assemblages. Our findings reveal that localized and ephemeral COTS outbreaks can be naturally contained and do not necessarily result in widespread disturbances.

Effects of larvae density and food concentration on Crown-of-Thorns seastar (Acanthaster cf. solaris) development in an automated flow-through system

Coral-eating Crown-of-Thorns Sea stars (Acanthaster spp.) are major contributors to coral reef loss in the Indo-Pacific region. A release from food limitation of their planktotrophic larvae through enhanced pelagic productivity is one of the main hypothesis explaining population outbreaks (‘nutrient limitation hypothesis’). To improve the understanding of these outbreaks we developed an automated flow- through larvae rearing system that maintained food (microalgae) at set levels over the course of four 15d experiments. This resulted in stable food concentrations in experimental tanks. Increased algae concentrations had a significant positive effect on larval development and size at 10 and 15 days post fertilization (dpf). Larvae densities had no effect at 10 dpf. At 15 dpf greater larvae densities were associated with declines in larvae size. Larval development was slowed under higher larvae densities. Thus, the effects of algae concentration and larvae density were additive at 15 dpf, with larvae under low densities at a given algae concentration being further developed than those under higher densities. The development of a flow-through system gives greater insight into the effect of algae and larvae concentrations on Acanthaster development, and the system can be applied to further test the nutrient-limitation hypothesis for present and future outbreaks.

Connectivity and systemic resilience of the Great Barrier Reef

Australia’s iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR) continues to suffer from repeated impacts of cyclones, coral bleaching, and outbreaks of the coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), losing much of its coral cover in the process. This raises the question of the ecosystem’s systemic resilience and its ability to rebound after large-scale population loss. Here, we reveal that around 100 reefs of the GBR, or around 3%, have the ideal properties to facilitate recovery of disturbed areas, thereby imparting a level of systemic resilience and aiding its continued recovery. These reefs (1) are highly connected by ocean currents to the wider reef network, (2) have a relatively low risk of exposure to disturbances so that they are likely to provide replenishment when other reefs are depleted, and (3) have an ability to promote recovery of desirable species but are unlikely to either experience or spread COTS outbreaks. The great replenishment potential of these ‘robust source reefs’, which may supply 47% of the ecosystem in a single dispersal event, emerges from the interaction between oceanographic conditions and geographic location, a process that is likely to be repeated in other reef systems. Such natural resilience of reef systems will become increasingly important as the frequency of disturbances accelerates under climate change.

Australia’s Great Barrier Reef is a large coral ecosystem consisting of more than 3,800 reefs. Coral populations inhabiting these reefs are connected by larvae that are dispersed by ocean currents. Modelling regional connectivity patterns reveals reefs that can act as prominent larval sources and supply larvae to other coral populations in the area. Coral populations on reefs are also subject to various disturbances, such as bleaching and outbreaks of the coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish. These disturbances tend to have spatially explicit patterns, resulting in different levels of impact among reefs. In this study, we first use high-resolution dispersal simulations of larvae to identify the reefs most likely to support regional recovery processes due to their high connectivity. We then use oceanographic and climate models to show which reefs are likely to have a lower risk of exposure to coral bleaching and starfish outbreaks. Finally, we combine these results to find reefs that are not only likely to be good sources by being well connected but also more likely to have adult breeding stocks needed to provide the necessary larval supply. This information can support decision-making that aims to allocate management resources and prioritise sites important for the resilience of the entire reef system.

Legacy effects and memory loss: how contingencies moderate the response of rocky intertidal biofilms to present and past extreme events

Understanding how historical processes modulate the response of ecosystems to perturbations is becoming increasingly important. In contrast to the growing interest in projecting biodiversity and ecosystem functioning under future climate scenarios, how legacy effects originating from historical conditions drive change in ecosystems remains largely unexplored. Using experiments in combination with stochastic antecedent modelling, we evaluated how extreme warming, sediment deposition and grazing events modulated the ecological memory of rocky intertidal epilithic microphytobenthos (EMPB). We found memory effects in the non-clustered scenario of disturbance (60 days apart), where EMPB biomass fluctuated in time, but not under clustered disturbances (15 days apart), where EMPB biomass was consistently low. A massive grazing event impacted on EMPB biomass in a second run of the experiment, also muting ecological memory. Our results provide empirical support to the theoretical expectation that stochastic fluctuations promote ecological memory, but also show that contingencies may lead to memory loss.

Bias associated with the detectability of the coral-eating pest crown-of-thorns seastar and implications for reef management

Outbreaks of the predator crown-of-thorns seastar (COTS) Acanthaster planci cause widespread coral mortality across the Indo-Pacific. Like many marine invertebrates, COTS is a nocturnal species whose cryptic behaviour during the day can affect its detectability, particularly in structurally complex reef habitats that provide many refuges for benthic creatures. We performed extensive day and night surveys of COTS populations in coral reef habitats showing differing levels of structural complexity and COTS abundance. We tested whether estimations of COTS density varied between day and night observations, and if the differences were related to changes in COTS abundance, reef structural complexity and the spatial scale of observation. Estimations of COTS density were on average 27% higher at night than during the day. Differences in COTS detection varied with changing seastar abundance but not reef structural complexity or scale of observation. Underestimation of COTS abundance in daytime was significant for a broad seastar density range, thus potentially affecting most outbreak events. Our study suggests that portions of COTS populations can be undetected during conventional surveys and control campaigns, which are exclusively conducted by day, and significantly affect the trajectory of coral reefs. Accounting for bias in COTS detection can strengthen coral reef management broadly.

The crown-of-thorns starfish genome as a guide for biocontrol of this coral reef pest

The crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS, the Acanthaster planci species group) is a highly fecund predator of reef-building corals throughout the Indo-Pacific region. COTS population outbreaks cause substantial loss of coral cover, diminishing the integrity and resilience of reef ecosystems. Here we sequenced genomes of COTS from the Great Barrier Reef, Australia and Okinawa, Japan to identify gene products that underlie species-specific communication and could potentially be used in biocontrol strategies. We focused on water-borne chemical plumes released from aggregating COTS, which make the normally sedentary starfish become highly active. Peptide sequences detected in these plumes by mass spectrometry are encoded in the COTS genome and expressed in external tissues. The exoproteome released by aggregating COTS consists largely of signalling factors and hydrolytic enzymes, and includes an expanded and rapidly evolving set of starfish-specific ependymin-related proteins. These secreted proteins may be detected by members of a large family of olfactory-receptor-like G-protein-coupled receptors that are expressed externally, sometimes in a sex-specific manner. This study provides insights into COTS-specific communication that may guide the generation of peptide mimetics for use on reefs with COTS outbreaks.

Superstars: Assessing nutrient thresholds for enhanced larval success of Acanthaster planci, a review of the evidence

Crown-of-thorns starfish, Acanthaster planci (COTS), predation is a major cause of coral reef decline, but the factors behind their population outbreaks remain unclear. Increased phytoplankton food resulting from eutrophication is suggested to enhance larval survival. We addressed the hypothesis that larval success is associated with particular chl-a levels in tightly controlled larval:algal conditions. We used chl-a conditions found on coral reefs (0.1-5.0μgchl-aL^-1), including nominal threshold levels for disproportionate larval success (≥1.0μgchl-aL^-1). High success to the juvenile occurred across an order of magnitude of chl-a concentrations (0.5-5.0μgchl-aL^-1), suggesting there may not be a narrow value for optimal success. Oligotrophic conditions (0.1μgchl-aL^-1) appeared to be a critical limit. With a review of the evidence, we suggest that opportunistic COTS larvae may be more resilient to low food levels than previously appreciated. Initiation of outbreak populations need not require eutrophic conditions.

Controlling range expansion in habitat networks by adaptively targeting source populations

Controlling the spread of invasive species, pests, and pathogens is often logistically limited to interventions that target specific locations at specific periods. However, in complex, highly connected systems, such as marine environments connected by ocean currents, populations spread dynamically in both space and time via transient connectivity links. This results in nondeterministic future distributions of species in which local populations emerge dynamically and concurrently over a large area. The challenge, therefore, is to choose intervention locations that will maximize the effectiveness of the control efforts. We propose a novel method to manage dynamic species invasions and outbreaks that identifies the intervention locations most likely to curtail population expansion by selectively targeting local populations most likely to expand their future range. Critically, at any point during the development of the invasion or outbreak, the method identifies the local intervention that maximizes the long-term benefit across the ecosystem by restricting species' potential to spread. In so doing, the method adaptively selects the intervention targets under dynamically changing circumstances. To illustrate the effectiveness of the method we applied it to controlling the spread of crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster sp.) outbreaks across Australia's Great Barrier Reef. Application of our method resulted in an 18-fold relative improvement in management outcomes compared with a random targeting of reefs in putative starfish control scenarios. Although we focused on applying the method to reducing the spread of an unwanted species, it can also be used to facilitate the spread of desirable species through connectivity networks. For example, the method could be used to select those fragments of habitat most likely to rebuild a population if they were sufficiently well protected.

Environmental triggers for primary outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

In this paper, we postulate a unique environmental triggering sequence for primary outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS, Acanthaster planci) on the central Great Barrier Reef (GBR, Australia). Notably, we extend the previous terrestrial runoff hypothesis, viz. nutrient-enriched terrestrial runoff → elevated phytoplankton 'bloom' concentrations → enhanced COTS larval survival, to include the additional importance of strong larvae retention around reefs or within reef groups (clusters) that share enhanced phytoplankton concentrations. For the central GBR, this scenario is shown to occur when El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) linked hydrodynamic conditions cause the 'regional' larval connectivity network to fragment into smaller 'local' reef clusters due to low ocean current velocities. As inter-annual variations in hydrodynamic circulation patterns are not amenable to direct management intervention, the ability to reduce the future frequency of COTS outbreaks on the central GBR is shown to be contingent on reducing terrestrial bioavailable nutrient loads ~20-40%.

Outbreak of coral-eating Crown-of-Thorns creates continuous cloud of larvae over 320 km of the Great Barrier Reef

Coral reefs are in decline worldwide due to a combination of local and global causes. Over 40% of the recent coral loss on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) has been attributed to outbreaks of the coral-eating Crown-of-Thorns Seastar (CoTS). Testing of the hypotheses explaining these outbreaks is hampered by an inability to investigate the spatio-temporal distribution of larvae because they resemble other planktotrophic echinoderm larvae. We developed a genetic marker and tested it on 48 plankton samples collected during the 2014 spawning season in the northern GBR, and verified the method by PCR amplification of single larva. Surprisingly, most samples collected contained CoTS larvae. Larvae were detected 100 km south of current outbreaks of adult seastars, highlighting the potential for rapid expansion of the outbreak. A minimum estimate suggested that larvae numbers in the outbreak area (>10(10)) are about 4 orders of magnitude higher than adults (~10(6)) in the same area, implying that attempts to halt outbreaks by removing adults may be futile.