Plant phenological synchrony increases under rapid within-spring warming

Historical tree phenology data reveal the seasonal rhythms of the Congo Basin rainforest

Tropical forest phenology directly affects regional carbon cycles, but the relation between species-specific and whole-canopy phenology remains largely uncharacterized. We present a unique analysis of historical tropical tree phenology collected in the central Congo Basin, before large-scale impacts of human-induced climate change. Ground-based long-term (1937-1956) phenological observations of 140 tropical tree species are recovered, species-specific phenological patterns analyzed and related to historical meteorological records, and scaled to characterize stand-level canopy dynamics. High phenological variability within and across species and in climate-phenology relationships is observed. The onset of leaf phenophases in deciduous species was triggered by drought and light availability for a subset of species and showed a species-specific decoupling in time along a bi-modal seasonality. The majority of the species remain evergreen, although central African forests experience relatively low rainfall. Annually a maximum of 1.5% of the canopy is in leaf senescence or leaf turnover, with overall phenological variability dominated by a few deciduous species, while substantial variability is attributed to asynchronous events of large and/or abundant trees. Our results underscore the importance of accounting for constituent signals in canopy-wide scaling and the interpretation of remotely sensed phenology signals.

First Report on the Genetic Diversity of Populations of Gossypium barbadense L. and Gossypium hirsutun L. in the Amazonian Native Communities, Cusco-Peru

The genus Gossypium has important ethnobotanical and economic value for Amazonian Native Communities (A.N.C.). However, little research has been undertaken on the distribution and genetic diversity of cotton populations maintained in the Peruvian rainforest. This work aims to present the first report on the genetic diversity of Gossypium spp. populations in the A.N.C. of the province of La Convención, Cusco-Peru. The methodology was based on exploring, collecting, identifying, and characterizing the Gossypium populations present in the A.N.C. Twenty-six descriptors were evaluated (9 quantitative and 17 qualitative), and with this information, distribution, correlation, and principal component (PC) analyses were carried out. As a result, plants of two species [G. barbadense L. (44 samples) and G. hirsutum L. (19 samples)], one variety [G. barbadense var. brasiliensis (75 samples)], and three previously unidentified variations (9 samples) were identified. Altogether, 147 samples were collected. G. barbadense var. brasiliensis, which was always found in association with other economic crops within an altitude range of 338 to 1086 m, was the most predominant (51%), distributed in eleven A.N.C. and always in small plots (up to 2 ha). G. barbadense L. was cultivated between 397 and 1137 m of altitude in eight A.N.C. in plots of up to 3 ha in marginal lands. G. hirsutum L., with a smaller distribution (13%), was found between 334 and 497 m of altitude in only three communities; this species is cultivated in marginal areas throughout the year. The variability found for the first two PCs when considering the quantitative and qualitative descriptors was high (74.7%) and moderate (48.2%), respectively. When combining all the descriptors, the analysis showed that the first two PCs accounted for 51.8% of the total variability of the data. The PCs of the two types of data and their combination confirmed that the three populations found were grouped. The nine undefined samples were close to or intermediate between the described ones, showing that these samples may be the result of spontaneous crosses; as such, these samples need to be better evaluated with other tools for further definition. The information obtained shows that in the A.N.C. of Cusco-Peru, there is variability conserved by the inhabitants, who have been able to maintain and use these genotypes, even from their Amazonian indigenous ancestry, and the environment has been able to generate variability among the species, as will be highlighted in future works.

Warming reduced flowering synchrony and extended community flowering season in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau

The timing of phenological events is highly sensitive to climate change, and may influence ecosystem structure and function. Although changes in flowering phenology among species under climate change have been reported widely, how species-specific shifts will affect phenological synchrony and community-level phenology patterns remains unclear. We conducted a manipulative experiment of warming and precipitation addition and reduction to explore how climate change affected flowering phenology at the species and community levels in an alpine meadow on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. We found that warming advanced the first and last flowering times differently and with no consistent shifts in flowering duration among species, resulting in the entire flowering period of species emerging earlier in the growing season. Early-flowering species were more sensitive to warming than mid- and late-flowering species, thereby reducing flowering synchrony among species and extending the community-level flowering season. However, precipitation and its interactions with warming had no significant effects on flowering phenology. Our results suggest that temperature regulates flowering phenology from the species to community levels in this alpine meadow community, yet how species shifted their flowering timing and duration in response to warming varied. This species-level divergence may reshape flowering phenology in this alpine plant community. Decreasing flowering synchrony among species and the extension of community-level flowering seasons under warming may alter future trophic interactions, with cascading consequences to community and ecosystem function.

Region-specific phenological sensitivities and rates of climate warming generate divergent temporal shifts in flowering date across a species' range

PREMISE

Forecasting how species will respond phenologically to future changes in climate is a major challenge. Many studies have focused on estimating species- and community-wide phenological sensitivities to climate to make such predictions, but sensitivities may vary within species, which could result in divergent phenological responses to climate change.

METHODS

We used 743 herbarium specimens of the mountain jewelflower (Streptanthus tortuosus, Brassicaceae) collected over 112 years to investigate whether individuals sampled from relatively warm vs. cool regions differ in their sensitivity to climate and whether this difference has resulted in divergent phenological shifts in response to climate warming.

RESULTS

During the past century, individuals sampled from warm regions exhibited a 20-day advancement in flowering date; individuals in cool regions showed no evidence of a shift. We evaluated two potential drivers of these divergent responses: differences between regions in (1) the degree of phenological sensitivity to climate and (2) the magnitude of climate change experienced by plants, or (3) both. Plants sampled from warm regions were more sensitive to temperature-related variables and were subjected to a greater degree of climate warming than those from cool regions; thus our results suggest that the greater temporal shift in flowering date in warm regions is driven by both of these factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results are among the first to demonstrate that species exhibited intraspecific variation in sensitivity to climate and that this variation can contribute to divergent responses to climate change. Future studies attempting to forecast temporal shifts in phenology should consider intraspecific variation.

Full flowering phenology of apple tree (<i>Malus domestica</i>) in Pūre orchard, Latvia from 1959 to 2019

Abstract. The Pūre orchard is one of the oldest apple orchards in the Baltic, where thousands of varieties of fruit trees from throughout the world are grown and tested. Over time, a huge knowledge base has been accumulated, but most of the observational data are stored in archives in paper format. We have digitized a small part of the full flowering phenological data of apple trees (Malus domestica) over the period of 1959 to 2019 for 17 varieties of apple trees, a significant step for horticulture and agricultural economics in Latvia. Climate change has led to significant changes in the phenology of apple trees as all varieties, autumn, summer and winter, have begun to flower earlier: from 2002 to 2019, on average full flowering was recorded to have taken place around 21 May, whereas for the period 1959–1967 it occurred around 27–28 May. To develop better-quality phenological predictions and to take account of the fragmentary nature of phenological data, in our study we assessed the performance of three meteorological data sets – gridded observation data from E-OBS, ERA5-Land reanalysis data and direct observations from a distant meteorological station – in simple phenological degree-day models. In the first approximation, the gridded E-OBS data set performs best in our phenological model.

Phenological responses of temperate and boreal trees to warming depend on ambient spring temperatures, leaf habit, and geographic range

Changes in plant phenology associated with climate change have been observed globally. What is poorly known is whether and how phenological responses to climate warming will differ from year to year, season to season, habitat to habitat, or species to species. Here, we present 5 y of phenological responses to experimental warming for 10 subboreal tree species. Research took place in the open-air B4WarmED experiment in Minnesota. The design is a two habitat (understory and open) × three warming treatments (ambient, +1.7 °C, +3.4 °C) factorial at two sites. Phenology was measured twice weekly during the growing seasons of 2009 through 2013. We found significant interannual variation in the effect of warming and differences among species in response to warming that relate to geographic origin and plant functional group. Moreover, responses to experimental temperature variation were similar to responses to natural temperature variation. Warming advanced the date of budburst more in early compared to late springs, suggesting that to simulate interannual variability in climate sensitivity of phenology, models should employ process-based or continuous development approaches. Differences among species in timing of budburst were also greater in early compared to late springs. Our results suggest that climate change-which will make most springs relatively "early"-could lead to a future with more variable phenology among years and among species, with consequences including greater risk of inappropriately early leafing and altered interactions among species.

Identifying phenological phases in strawberry using multiple change-point models

Plant development studies often generate data in the form of multivariate time series, each variable corresponding to a count of newly emerged organs for a given development process. These phenological data often exhibit highly structured patterns, and the aim of this study was to identify such patterns in cultivated strawberry. Six strawberry genotypes were observed weekly for their course of emergence of flowers, leaves, and stolons during 7 months. We assumed that these phenological series take the form of successive phases, synchronous between individuals. We applied univariate multiple change-point models for the identification of flowering, vegetative development, and runnering phases, and multivariate multiple change-point models for the identification of consensus phases for these three development processes. We showed that the flowering and the runnering processes are the main determinants of the phenological pattern. On this basis, we propose a typology of the six genotypes in the form of a hierarchical classification. This study introduces a new longitudinal data modeling approach for the identification of phenological phases in plant development. The focus was on development variables but the approach can be directly extended to growth variables and to multivariate series combining growth and development variables.

How Does Scale Effect Influence Spring Vegetation Phenology Estimated from Satellite-Derived Vegetation Indexes?

As an important land-surface parameter, vegetation phenology has been estimated from observations by various satellite-borne sensors with substantially different spatial resolutions, ranging from tens of meters to several kilometers. The inconsistency of satellite-derived phenological metrics (e.g., green-up date, GUD, also known as the land-surface spring phenology) among different spatial resolutions, which is referred to as the “scale effect” on GUD, has been recognized in previous studies, but it still needs further efforts to explore the cause of the scale effect on GUD and to quantify the scale effect mechanistically. To address these issues, we performed mathematical analyses and designed up-scaling experiments. We found that the scale effect on GUD is not only related to the heterogeneity of GUD among fine pixels within a coarse pixel, but it is also greatly affected by the covariation between the GUD and vegetation growth speed of fine pixels. GUD of a coarse pixel tends to be closer to that of fine pixels with earlier green-up and higher vegetation growth speed. Therefore, GUD of the coarse pixel is earlier than the average of GUD of fine pixels, if the growth speed is a constant. However, GUD of the coarse pixel could be later than the average from fine pixels, depending on the proportion of fine pixels with later GUD and higher growth speed. Based on those mechanisms, we proposed a model that accounted for the effects of heterogeneity of GUD and its co-variation with growth speed, which explained about 60% of the scale effect, suggesting that the model can help convert GUD estimated at different spatial scales. Our study provides new mechanistic explanations of the scale effect on GUD.

Phenology in a warming world: differences between native and non-native plant species

Phenology is a harbinger of climate change, with many species advancing flowering in response to rising temperatures. However, there is tremendous variation among species in phenological response to warming, and any phenological differences between native and non-native species may influence invasion outcomes under global warming. We simulated global warming in the field and found that non-native species flowered earlier and were more phenologically plastic to temperature than natives, which did not accelerate flowering in response to warming. Non-native species' flowering also became more synchronous with other community members under warming. Earlier flowering was associated with greater geographic spread of non-native species, implicating phenology as a potential trait associated with the successful establishment of non-native species across large geographic regions. Such phenological differences in both timing and plasticity between native and non-natives are hypothesised to promote invasion success and population persistence, potentially benefiting non-native over native species under climate change.

Checking the Consistency of Volunteered Phenological Observations While Analysing Their Synchrony

The increasing availability of volunteered geographic information (VGI) enables novel studies in many scientific domains. However, inconsistent VGI can negatively affect these studies. This paper describes a workflow that checks the consistency of Volunteered Phenological Observations (VPOs) while considering the synchrony of observations (i.e., the temporal dispersion of a phenological event). The geographic coordinates, day of the year (DOY) of the observed event, and the accumulation of daily temperature until that DOY were used to: (1) spatially group VPOs by connecting observations that are near to each other, (2) define consistency constraints, (3) check the consistency of VPOs by evaluating the defined constraints, and (4) optimize the constraints by analysing the effect of inconsistent VPOs on the synchrony models derived from the observations. This workflow was tested using VPOs collected in the Netherlands during the period 2003–2015. We found that the average percentage of inconsistent observations was low to moderate (ranging from 1% for wood anemone and pedunculate oak to 15% for cow parsley species). This indicates that volunteers provide reliable phenological information. We also found a significant correlation between the standard deviation of DOY of the observed events and the accumulation of daily temperature (with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.78 for lesser celandine, and 0.60 for pedunculate oak). This confirmed that colder days in late winter and early spring lead to synchronous flowering and leafing onsets. Our results highlighted the potential of synchrony information and geographical context for checking the consistency of phenological VGI. Other domains using VGI can adapt this geocomputational workflow to check the consistency of their data, and hence the robustness of their analyses.

Direct Impacts of Climate Change and Indirect Impacts of Non-Climate Change on Land Surface Phenology Variation across Northern China

Land surface phenology (LSP) is a sensitive indicator of climate change. Understanding the variation in LSP under various impacts can improve our knowledge on ecosystem dynamics and biosphere-atmosphere interactions. Over recent decades, LSP derived from remote sensing data and climate change-related variation of LSP have been widely reported at the regional and global scales. However, the smoothing methods of the vegetation index (i.e., NDVI) are diverse, and discrepancies among methods may result in different results. Additionally, LSP is affected by climate change and non-climate change simultaneously. However, few studies have focused on the isolated impacts of climate change and the impacts of non-climate change on LSP variation. In this study, four methods were applied to reconstruct the MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI) dataset to choose the best smoothing result to estimate LSP. Subsequently, the variation in the start of season (SOS) and end of season (EOS) under isolated impacts of climate change were analyzed. Furthermore, the indirect effects of isolated impacts of non-climate change were conducted based on the differences between the combined impact (the impacts of both climate change and non-climate change) and isolated impacts of climate change. Our results indicated that the Savitzky-Golay method is the best method of the four for smoothing EVI in Northern China. Additionally, SOS displayed an advanced trend under the impacts of both climate change and non-climate change (hereafter called the combined impact), isolated impacts of climate change, and isolated impacts of non-climate change, with mean values of −0.26, −0.07, and −0.17 days per year, respectively. Moreover, the trend of SOS continued after 2000, but the magnitudes of changes in SOS after 2000 were lower than those that were estimated over the last two decades of the twentieth century (previous studies). EOS showed a delayed trend under the combined impact and isolated impacts of non-climate change, with mean values of 0.41 and 0.43 days per year, respectively. However, EOS advanced with a mean value of −0.16 days per year under the isolated impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the absolute mean values of SOS and EOS trends under the isolated impacts of non-climate change were larger than that of the isolated impacts of climate change, indicating that the effect of non-climate change on LSP variation was larger than that of climate change. With regard to the relative contribution of climatic factors to the variation in SOS and EOS, the proportion of solar radiation was the largest for both SOS and EOS, followed by precipitation and temperature.

Global warming reduces leaf-out and flowering synchrony among individuals

The temporal overlap of phenological stages, phenological synchrony, crucially influences ecosystem functioning. For flowering, among-individual synchrony influences gene flow. For leaf-out, it affects interactions with herbivores and competing plants. If individuals differ in their reaction to the ongoing change in global climate, this should affect population-level synchrony. Here, we use climate-manipulation experiments, Pan-European long-term (>15 years) observations, and common garden monitoring data on up to 72 woody and herbaceous species to study the effects of increasing temperatures on the extent of leaf-out and flowering synchrony within populations. Warmer temperatures reduce in situ leaf-out and flowering synchrony by up to 55%, and experiments on European beech provide a mechanism for how individual differences in day-length and/or chilling sensitivity may explain this finding. The rapid loss of reproductive and vegetative synchrony in European plants predicts changes in their gene flow and trophic interactions, but community-wide consequences remain largely unknown.

Editorial note

This article has been through an editorial process in which the authors decide how to respond to the issues raised during peer review. The Reviewing Editor's assessment is that all the issues have been addressed (see decision letter).

Pan European Phenological database (PEP725): a single point of access for European data

The Pan European Phenology (PEP) project is a European infrastructure to promote and facilitate phenological research, education, and environmental monitoring. The main objective is to maintain and develop a Pan European Phenological database (PEP725) with an open, unrestricted data access for science and education. PEP725 is the successor of the database developed through the COST action 725 "Establishing a European phenological data platform for climatological applications" working as a single access point for European-wide plant phenological data. So far, 32 European meteorological services and project partners from across Europe have joined and supplied data collected by volunteers from 1868 to the present for the PEP725 database. Most of the partners actively provide data on a regular basis. The database presently holds almost 12 million records, about 46 growing stages and 265 plant species (including cultivars), and can be accessed via http://www.pep725.eu/ . Users of the PEP725 database have studied a diversity of topics ranging from climate change impact, plant physiological question, phenological modeling, and remote sensing of vegetation to ecosystem productivity.

Environmental effects on fine-scale spatial genetic structure in four Alpine keystone forest tree species

Genetic responses to environmental changes take place at different spatial scales. While the effect of environment on the distribution of species' genetic diversity at large geographical scales has been the focus of several recent studies, its potential effects on genetic structure at local scales are understudied. Environmental effects on fine-scale spatial genetic structure (FSGS) were investigated in four Alpine conifer species (five to eight populations per species) from the eastern Italian Alps. Significant FSGS was found for 11 of 25 populations. Interestingly, we found no significant differences in FSGS across species but great variation among populations within species, highlighting the importance of local environmental factors. Interannual variability in spring temperature had a small but significant effect on FSGS of Larix decidua, probably related to species-specific life history traits. For Abies alba, Picea abies and Pinus cembra, linear models identified spring precipitation as a potentially relevant climate factor associated with differences in FSGS across populations; however, models had low explanatory power and were strongly influenced by a P. cembra outlier population from a very dry site. Overall, the direction of the identified effects is according to expectations, with drier and more variable environments increasing FSGS. Underlying mechanisms may include climate-related changes in the variance of reproductive success and/or environmental selection of specific families. This study provides new insights on potential changes in local genetic structure of four Alpine conifers in the face of environmental changes, suggesting that new climates, through altering FSGS, may also have relevant impacts on plant microevolution.

A high-density consensus linkage map of white lupin highlights synteny with narrow-leafed lupin and provides markers tagging key agronomic traits

White lupin (Lupinus albus L.) is a valuable source of seed protein, carbohydrates and oil, but requires genetic improvement to attain its agronomic potential. This study aimed to (i) develop a new high-density consensus linkage map based on new, transcriptome-anchored markers; (ii) map four important agronomic traits, namely, vernalization requirement, seed alkaloid content, and resistance to anthracnose and Phomopsis stem blight; and, (iii) define regions of synteny between the L. albus and narrow-leafed lupin (L. angustifolius L.) genomes. Mapping of white lupin quantitative trait loci (QTLs) revealed polygenic control of vernalization responsiveness and anthracnose resistance, as well as a single locus regulating seed alkaloid content. We found high sequence collinearity between white and narrow-leafed lupin genomes. Interestingly, the white lupin QTLs did not correspond to previously mapped narrow-leafed lupin loci conferring vernalization independence, anthracnose resistance, low alkaloids and Phomopsis stem blight resistance, highlighting different genetic control of these traits. Our suite of allele-sequenced and PCR validated markers tagging these QTLs is immediately applicable for marker-assisted selection in white lupin breeding. The consensus map constitutes a platform for synteny-based gene cloning approaches and can support the forthcoming white lupin genome sequencing efforts.