1
|
Scoto F, Maffezzoli N, Osman MB, Cuevas CA, Vallelonga P, Matoba S, Iizuka Y, Gagliardi A, Varin C, Burgay F, Pappaccogli G, McConnell JR, Chellman N, Barbante C, Saiz-Lopez A, Spolaor A. Calibration of Arctic ice core bromine enrichment records for past sea ice reconstructions. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 955:177063. [PMID: 39442730 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177063] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2024] [Revised: 10/13/2024] [Accepted: 10/17/2024] [Indexed: 10/25/2024]
Abstract
Bromine in ice cores has been proposed as a qualitative sea ice proxy to produce sea ice reconstructions for the polar regions. Here we report the first statistical validation of this proxy with satellite sea ice observations by combining bromine enrichment (with respect to seawater, Brenr) records from three Greenlandic ice cores (SIGMA-A, NU and RECAP) with satellite sea ice imagery, over three decades. We find that during the 1984-2016 satellite-era, ice core Brenr values are significantly correlated with first-year sea ice formed in the Baffin Bay and Labrador Sea supporting that the gas-phase bromine enrichment processes, preferentially occurring over the sea ice surface, are the main driver for the Brenr signal in ice cores. Moreover, in assessing Brenr's capability to record historical sea ice variability, we compare 20th-century Arctic Sea ice historical and proxy records with our reconstructions, based on an autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) model, finding overall good agreement. While further enhancements are warranted, including site-specific calibrations and a comprehensive investigation into bromine transport-related concerns, this study presents a new method to quantitatively reconstruct past seasonal sea ice variability through bromine enrichment in ice cores.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Federico Scoto
- Institute of Polar Sciences, National Research Council, ISP-CNR, 30172 Venice, Italy; Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Venice 30172, Italy.
| | - Niccolò Maffezzoli
- Institute of Polar Sciences, National Research Council, ISP-CNR, 30172 Venice, Italy; Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Venice 30172, Italy; Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, United States
| | - Matthew B Osman
- Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Carlos A Cuevas
- Department of Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate, Institute of Physical Chemistry Blas Cabrera, CSIC, Madrid, Spain
| | - Paul Vallelonga
- Physics of Ice Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen N2200, Denmark; UWA Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia
| | - Sumito Matoba
- Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Kita 19 Nishi 8, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Yoshinori Iizuka
- Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Kita 19 Nishi 8, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Alessandro Gagliardi
- Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padua, 35121 Padua, Italy; Paleoclimate Dynamics Group, Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - Cristiano Varin
- Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Venice 30172, Italy
| | - François Burgay
- Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Venice 30172, Italy; Paul Scherrer Institute, Laboratory of Environmental Chemistry, 5232 Villigen, Switzerland
| | - Gianluca Pappaccogli
- Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences and Technologies, Univiversity of Salento, Lecce, Italy
| | - Joseph R McConnell
- Desert Research Institute, Division of Hydrologic Sciences, 2215 Raggio Pkwy, Reno, NV 89512, USA
| | - Nathan Chellman
- Desert Research Institute, Division of Hydrologic Sciences, 2215 Raggio Pkwy, Reno, NV 89512, USA
| | - Carlo Barbante
- Institute of Polar Sciences, National Research Council, ISP-CNR, 30172 Venice, Italy; Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Venice 30172, Italy
| | - Alfonso Saiz-Lopez
- Department of Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate, Institute of Physical Chemistry Blas Cabrera, CSIC, Madrid, Spain
| | - Andrea Spolaor
- Institute of Polar Sciences, National Research Council, ISP-CNR, 30172 Venice, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
McPherson RA, Wekerle C, Kanzow T, Ionita M, Heukamp FO, Zeising O, Humbert A. Atmospheric blocking slows ocean-driven melting of Greenland's largest glacier tongue. Science 2024; 385:1360-1366. [PMID: 39298599 DOI: 10.1126/science.ado5008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2024] [Accepted: 08/16/2024] [Indexed: 09/22/2024]
Abstract
Mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet has contributed to global sea-level rise over the past 20 years. Yet direct observations from the 79 North Glacier (79NG) calving front reveal decreasing Atlantic Intermediate Water (AIW) temperatures below the ice tongue from 2018 to 2021, leading to reduced ocean heat transport. This is linked to a concurrent decrease in basal melt and thinning rates at the grounding line. The origin of this AIW cooling is traced to a slowdown of the large-scale ocean circulation in the Nordic Seas, driven by European atmospheric blocking that strengthens cold air advection from the central Arctic through the Fram Strait. Blocking has driven major ocean cooling events over the last 50 years and will remain crucial in affecting Northeast Greenland's glaciers.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca Adam McPherson
- Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - Claudia Wekerle
- Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - Torsten Kanzow
- Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
- Faculty of Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
| | - Monica Ionita
- Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
- Forest Biometrics Laboratory, Faculty of Forestry, Ștefan cel Mare University of Suceava, Suceava, Romania
| | - Finn Ole Heukamp
- Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - Ole Zeising
- Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - Angelika Humbert
- Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
- Department of Geosciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Vaideanu P, Stepanek C, Dima M, Schrepfer J, Matos F, Ionita M, Lohmann G. Large-scale sea ice-Surface temperature variability linked to Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0290437. [PMID: 37647314 PMCID: PMC10468057 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0290437] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2022] [Accepted: 08/08/2023] [Indexed: 09/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Due to its involvement in numerous feedbacks, sea ice plays a crucial role not only for polar climate but also at global scale. We analyse state-of-the-art observed, reconstructed, and modelled sea-ice concentration (SIC) together with sea surface temperature (SST) to disentangle the influence of different forcing factors on the variability of these coupled fields. Canonical Correlation Analysis provides distinct pairs of coupled Arctic SIC-Atlantic SST variability which are linked to prominent oceanic and atmospheric modes of variability over the period 1854-2017. The first pair captures the behaviour of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) while the third and can be associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in a physically consistent manner. The dominant global SIC-Atlantic SST coupled mode highlights the contrast between the responses of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice to changes in AMOC over the 1959-2021 period. Model results indicate that coupled SST-SIC patterns can be associated with changes in ocean circulation. We conclude that a correct representation of AMOC-induced coupled SST-SIC variability in climate models is essential to understand the past, present and future sea-ice evolution.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Petru Vaideanu
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
- Faculty of Physics, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Christian Stepanek
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - Mihai Dima
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
- Faculty of Physics, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Jule Schrepfer
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - Fernanda Matos
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - Monica Ionita
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
- Emil Racovita Institute of Speleology, Romanian Academy, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
- Faculty of Forestry,” Stefan cel Mare” University of Suceava, Suceava, Romania
| | - Gerrit Lohmann
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
- MARUM & Department of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Destabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age. Nat Commun 2022; 13:5008. [PMID: 36008418 PMCID: PMC9411610 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32653-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2021] [Accepted: 08/09/2022] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
The cooling transition into the Little Ice Age was the last notable shift in the climate system prior to anthropogenic global warming. It is hypothesised that sea-ice to ocean feedbacks sustained an initial cooling into the Little Ice Age by weakening the subpolar gyre circulation; a system that has been proposed to exhibit bistability. Empirical evidence for bistability within this transition has however been lacking. Using statistical indicators of resilience in three annually-resolved bivalve proxy records from the North Icelandic shelf, we show that the subpolar North Atlantic climate system destabilised during two episodes prior to the Little Ice Age. This loss of resilience indicates reduced attraction to one stable state, and a system vulnerable to an abrupt transition. The two episodes preceded wider subpolar North Atlantic change, consistent with subpolar gyre destabilisation and the approach of a tipping point, potentially heralding the transition to Little Ice Age conditions. Bivalves reveal that the subpolar North Atlantic destabilised and shows signs of having crossed a tipping point during the transition into the Little Ice Age.
Collapse
|
5
|
Unprecedented decline of Arctic sea ice outflow in 2018. Nat Commun 2022; 13:1747. [PMID: 35365660 PMCID: PMC8975830 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29470-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2021] [Accepted: 03/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Fram Strait is the major gateway connecting the Arctic Ocean and North Atlantic Ocean, where nearly 90% of the sea ice export from the Arctic Ocean takes place. The exported sea ice is a large source of freshwater to the Nordic Seas and Subpolar North Atlantic, thereby preconditioning European climate and deep water formation in the North Atlantic Ocean. Here we show that in 2018, the ice export through Fram Strait showed an unprecedented decline since the early 1990s. The 2018 ice export was reduced to less than 40% relative to that between 2000 and 2017. The minimum export is attributed to regional sea ice-ocean processes driven by an anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. The result indicates that a drastic change of the Arctic sea ice outflow and its environmental consequences happen not only through Arctic-wide ice thinning, but also by regional scale atmospheric anomalies. Fram Strait is the major gateway connecting the Arctic Ocean and North Atlantic Ocean, where nearly 90% of the sea ice export from the Arctic Ocean takes place. Here, the authors show that in 2018, ice export showed an unprecedented decline since at least the 1990s, attributed to ongoing Arctic-wide ice thinning and regional-scale atmospheric anomalies.
Collapse
|
6
|
An Assessment of Sea Ice Motion Products in the Robeson Channel Using Daily Sentinel-1 Images. REMOTE SENSING 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/rs14020329] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Sea ice motion is an essential parameter when determining sea ice deformation, regional advection, and the outflow of ice from the Arctic Ocean. The Robeson Channel, which is located between Ellesmere Island and northwest Greenland, is a narrow but crucial channel for ice outflow. Only three Eulerian sea ice motion products derived from ocean/sea ice reanalysis are available: GLORYS12V1, PSY4V3, and TOPAZ4. In this study, we used Lagrangian ice motion in the Robeson Channel derived from Sentinel-1 images to assess GLORYS12V1, PSY4V3, and TOPAZ4. The influence of the presence of ice arches, and wind and tidal forcing on the accuracies of the reanalysis products was also investigated. The results show that the PSY4V3 product performs the best as it underestimates the motion the least, whereas TOPAZ4 grossly underestimates the motion. This is particularly true in regimes of free drift after the formation of the northern arch. In areas with slow ice motion or grounded ice floes, the GLORYS12V1 and TOPAZ4 products offer a better estimation. The spatial distribution of the deviation between the products and ice floe drift is also presented and shows a better agreement in the Robeson Channel compared to the packed ice regime north of the Robeson Channel.
Collapse
|
7
|
Lapointe F, Bradley RS. Little Ice Age abruptly triggered by intrusion of Atlantic waters into the Nordic Seas. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2021; 7:eabi8230. [PMID: 34910526 PMCID: PMC8673760 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abi8230] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
The Little Ice Age (LIA) was one of the coldest periods of the postglacial period in the Northern Hemisphere. Although there is increasing evidence that this time interval was associated with weakening of the subpolar gyre (SPG), the sequence of events that led to its weakened state has yet to be explained. Here, we show that the LIA was preceded by an exceptional intrusion of warm Atlantic water into the Nordic Seas in the late 1300s. The intrusion was a consequence of persistent atmospheric blocking over the North Atlantic, linked to unusually high solar activity. The warmer water led to the breakup of sea ice and calving of tidewater glaciers; weakening of the blocking anomaly in the late 1300s allowed the large volume of ice that had accumulated to be exported into the North Atlantic. This led to a weakening of the SPG, setting the stage for the subsequent LIA.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Francois Lapointe
- Department of Geosciences, Climate System Research Center, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA
| | - Raymond S Bradley
- Department of Geosciences, Climate System Research Center, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Helama S, Stoffel M, Hall RJ, Jones PD, Arppe L, Matskovsky VV, Timonen M, Nöjd P, Mielikäinen K, Oinonen M. Recurrent transitions to Little Ice Age-like climatic regimes over the Holocene. CLIMATE DYNAMICS 2021; 56:3817-3833. [PMID: 34776646 PMCID: PMC8550666 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05669-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2020] [Accepted: 01/20/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED Holocene climate variability is punctuated by episodic climatic events such as the Little Ice Age (LIA) predating the industrial-era warming. Their dating and forcing mechanisms have however remained controversial. Even more crucially, it is uncertain whether earlier events represent climatic regimes similar to the LIA. Here we produce and analyse a new 7500-year long palaeoclimate record tailored to detect LIA-like climatic regimes from northern European tree-ring data. In addition to the actual LIA, we identify LIA-like ca. 100-800 year periods with cold temperatures combined with clear sky conditions from 540 CE, 1670 BCE, 3240 BCE and 5450 BCE onwards, these LIA-like regimes covering 20% of the study period. Consistent with climate modelling, the LIA-like regimes originate from a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice North Atlantic-Arctic system and were amplified by volcanic activity (multiple eruptions closely spaced in time), tree-ring evidence pointing to similarly enhanced LIA-like regimes starting after the eruptions recorded in 1627 BCE, 536/540 CE and 1809/1815 CE. Conversely, the ongoing decline in Arctic sea-ice extent is mirrored in our data which shows reversal of the LIA-like conditions since the late nineteenth century, our record also correlating highly with the instrumentally recorded Northern Hemisphere and global temperatures over the same period. Our results bridge the gaps between low- and high-resolution, precisely dated proxies and demonstrate the efficacy of slow and fast components of the climate system to generate LIA-like climate regimes. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-021-05669-0.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Samuli Helama
- Natural Resources Institute Finland, Ounasjoentie 6, 96200 Rovaniemi, Finland
| | - Markus Stoffel
- Climate Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene (C-CIA), Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
- dendrolab.Ch, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
- Department F.-A. Forel for Environmental and Aquatic Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Richard J. Hall
- School of Geography and Lincoln Centre for Water and Planetary Health, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, UK
| | - Phil D. Jones
- Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ UK
| | - Laura Arppe
- Laboratory of Chronology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Gustaf Hällströmin Katu 2, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - Mauri Timonen
- Natural Resources Institute Finland, Ounasjoentie 6, 96200 Rovaniemi, Finland
| | - Pekka Nöjd
- Natural Resources Institute Finland, Tietotie 2, 02150 Espoo, Finland
| | - Kari Mielikäinen
- Natural Resources Institute Finland, Tietotie 2, 02150 Espoo, Finland
| | - Markku Oinonen
- Laboratory of Chronology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Gustaf Hällströmin Katu 2, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Kodaira T, Waseda T, Nose T, Inoue J. Record high Pacific Arctic seawater temperatures and delayed sea ice advance in response to episodic atmospheric blocking. Sci Rep 2020; 10:20830. [PMID: 33247199 PMCID: PMC7695746 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-77488-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2020] [Accepted: 11/09/2020] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Arctic sea ice is rapidly decreasing during the recent period of global warming. One of the significant factors of the Arctic sea ice loss is oceanic heat transport from lower latitudes. For months of sea ice formation, the variations in the sea surface temperature over the Pacific Arctic region were highly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the seasonal sea surface temperatures recorded their highest values in autumn 2018 when the PDO index was neutral. It is shown that the anomalous warm seawater was a rapid ocean response to the southerly winds associated with episodic atmospheric blocking over the Bering Sea in September 2018. This warm seawater was directly observed by the R/V Mirai Arctic Expedition in November 2018 to significantly delay the southward sea ice advance. If the atmospheric blocking forms during the PDO positive phase in the future, the annual maximum Arctic sea ice extent could be dramatically reduced.
Collapse
Grants
- JPMXD1300000000 Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology
- JPMXD1300000000 Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology
- JPMXD1300000000 Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology
- JPMXD1300000000 Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology
- 16H02429 MEXT/JSPS KAKENHI
- 16H02429 MEXT/JSPS KAKENHI
- 18H03745 MEXT/JSPS KAKENHI
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Tsubasa Kodaira
- Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan.
| | - Takuji Waseda
- Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan
| | - Takehiko Nose
- Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan
| | - Jun Inoue
- Arctic Environment Research Center, National Institute of Polar Research, Tachikawa, Japan
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Vanishing river ice cover in the lower part of the Danube basin - signs of a changing climate. Sci Rep 2018; 8:7948. [PMID: 29784952 PMCID: PMC5962587 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-26357-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2018] [Accepted: 05/11/2018] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Many of the world’s largest rivers in the extra tropics are covered with ice during the cold season, and in the Northern Hemisphere approximately 60% of the rivers experience significant seasonal effects of river ice. Here we present an observational data set of the ice cover regime for the lower part of the Danube River which spans over the period 1837–2016, and its the longest one on record over this area. The results in this study emphasize the strong impact of climate change on the occurrence of ice regime especially in the second part of the 20th century. The number of ice cover days has decreased considerably (~28days/century) mainly due to an increase in the winter mean temperature. In a long-term context, based on documentary evidences, we show that the ice cover occurrence rate was relatively small throughout the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), while the highest occurrence rates were found during the Maunder Minimum and Dalton Minimum periods. We conclude that the river ice regime can be used as a proxy for the winter temperature over the analyzed region and as an indicator of climate-change related impacts.
Collapse
|