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Raff JL, Goodbred SL, Pickering JL, Sincavage RS, Ayers JC, Hossain MS, Wilson CA, Paola C, Steckler MS, Mondal DR, Grimaud JL, Grall CJ, Rogers KG, Ahmed KM, Akhter SH, Carlson BN, Chamberlain EL, Dejter M, Gilligan JM, Hale RP, Khan MR, Muktadir MG, Rahman MM, Williams LA. Sediment delivery to sustain the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta under climate change and anthropogenic impacts. Nat Commun 2023; 14:2429. [PMID: 37105978 PMCID: PMC10140268 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38057-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2022] [Accepted: 04/13/2023] [Indexed: 04/29/2023] Open
Abstract
The principal nature-based solution for offsetting relative sea-level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta is the unabated delivery, dispersal, and deposition of the rivers' ~1 billion-tonne annual sediment load. Recent hydrological transport modeling suggests that strengthening monsoon precipitation in the 21st century could increase this sediment delivery 34-60%; yet other studies demonstrate that sediment could decline 15-80% if planned dams and river diversions are fully implemented. We validate these modeled ranges by developing a comprehensive field-based sediment budget that quantifies the supply of Ganges-Brahmaputra river sediment under varying Holocene climate conditions. Our data reveal natural responses in sediment supply comparable to previously modeled results and suggest that increased sediment delivery may be capable of offsetting accelerated sea-level rise. This prospect for a naturally sustained Ganges-Brahmaputra delta presents possibilities beyond the dystopian future often posed for this system, but the implementation of currently proposed dams and diversions would preclude such opportunities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica L Raff
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA.
| | - Steven L Goodbred
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA.
| | - Jennifer L Pickering
- Center for Applied Earth Science and Engineering Research, The University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, USA
| | | | - John C Ayers
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA
| | - Md Saddam Hossain
- Center for Applied Earth Science and Engineering Research, The University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, USA
| | - Carol A Wilson
- Department of Geology and Geophysics, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA
| | - Chris Paola
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, St Anthony Falls Laboratory, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - Michael S Steckler
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA
| | - Dhiman R Mondal
- Haystack Observatory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Westford, MA, USA
| | - Jean-Louis Grimaud
- Centre de Géosciences, PSL University/ MINES Paris, Fontainebleau, France
| | - Celine Jo Grall
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA
- CNRS - Littoral Environnement et Sociétés, La Rochelle University, La Rochelle, France
| | - Kimberly G Rogers
- Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
| | | | | | - Brandee N Carlson
- Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Houston, Houston, TX, USA
| | | | - Meagan Dejter
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA
| | - Jonathan M Gilligan
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA
| | - Richard P Hale
- Department of Ocean & Earth Sciences, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, USA
| | - Mahfuzur R Khan
- Department of Geology, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Md Golam Muktadir
- Department of Environmental Science, Bangladesh University of Professionals, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Md Munsur Rahman
- Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Lauren A Williams
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA
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Begum M, Masud MM, Alam L, Mokhtar MB, Amir AA. The impact of climate variables on marine fish production: an empirical evidence from Bangladesh based on autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:87923-87937. [PMID: 35819668 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-21845-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2021] [Accepted: 06/30/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Several studies have highlighted the significant impact of climate change on agriculture. However, there have been little empirical enquiries into the impact of climate change on marine fish production, particularly in Bangladesh. Hence, this study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on marine fish production in Bangladesh using data from 1961 to 2019. Data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization, Bangladesh Meteorological Department, the World Development Indicators, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was used to describe the dynamic link between CO2 emissions, average temperature, Sea Surface Temperature (SST), rainfall, sunshine, wind and marine fish production. The ARDL approach to cointegration revealed that SST (β = 0.258), rainfall (β =0.297), and sunshine (β =0.663) significantly influence marine fish production at 1% and 10% levels in the short run and at 1% level in the long run. The results also found that average temperature has a significant negative impact on fish production in both short and long runs. On the other hand, CO2 emissions have a negative impact on marine fish production in the short run. Specifically, for every 1% rise in CO2 emissions, marine fish production will decline by 0.11%. The findings of this study suggest that policymakers formulate better policy frameworks for climate change adaptation and sustainable management of marine fisheries at the national level. Research and development in Bangladesh's fisheries sector should also focus on marine fish species that can resist high sea surface temperatures, CO2 emissions, and average temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mahfuza Begum
- The Institute for Environment and Development (LESTARI), The National University of Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Muhammad Mehedi Masud
- Department of Development Studies, Faculty of Business and Economics, Universiti Malaya, 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Lubna Alam
- The Institute for Environment and Development (LESTARI), The National University of Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia.
| | - Mazlin Bin Mokhtar
- The Institute for Environment and Development (LESTARI), The National University of Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Ahmad Aldrie Amir
- The Institute for Environment and Development (LESTARI), The National University of Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
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3
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The ecological impact of plastic pollution in a changing climate. Emerg Top Life Sci 2022; 6:389-402. [PMID: 36398707 DOI: 10.1042/etls20220016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2022] [Revised: 11/01/2022] [Accepted: 11/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
Assessing three interlinked issues, plastic pollution, climate change and biodiversity loss separately can overlook potential interactions that may lead to positive or negative impacts on global ecosystem processes. Recent studies suggest that threatened species and ecosystems are vulnerable to both plastic pollution and climate change stressors. Here we consider the connectivity and state of knowledge between these three environmental issues with a focus on the Global South. Nine out of top ten Long-Term Climate Risk Index (CRI) (2000-2019) ranked countries are located within the Global South, yet research is focused in the Global North. A literature search for the top ten Long-Term Climate Risk Index (CRI) (2000-2019) ranked countries matched a total of 2416 (3.3% of global publications) search results on climate change, with 56 (4% of the global publications) on plastic pollution, and seven (7.7% of the global publications) on both climate change and plastic pollution. There is a strong correlation between the Global South and high biodiversity hotspots, high food insecurity and low environmental performance. Using Bangladesh as a case study, we show the erosion rates and sea level rise scenarios that will increase ocean-bound plastic pollution and impact high biodiversity areas. Poverty alleviation and promoting renewable energy and green practices can significantly reduce the stress on the environment. We recommend that these connected planetary threats can be best addressed through a holistic and collaborative approach to research, a focus on the Global South, and an ambitious policy agenda.
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Harris F, Amarnath G, Joy EJM, Dangour AD, Green RF. Climate-related hazards and Indian food supply: Assessing the risk using recent historical data. GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2022.100625] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
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Abstract
Purpose of Review In this article, we examine the intersection of human migration and climate change. Growing evidence that changing environmental and climate conditions are triggers for displacement, whether voluntary or forced, adds a powerful argument for profound anticipatory engagement. Recent Findings Climate change is expected to displace vast populations from rural to urban areas, and when life in the urban centers becomes untenable, many will continue their onward migration elsewhere (Wennersten and Robbins 2017; Rigaud et al. 2018). It is now accepted that the changing climate will be a threat multiplier, will exacerbate the need or decision to migrate, and will disproportionately affect large already vulnerable sections of humanity. Worst-case scenario models that assume business-as-usual approaches to climate change predict that nearly one-third of the global population will live in extremely hot (uninhabitable) climates, currently found in less than 1% of the earth’s surface mainly in the Sahara. Summary We find that the post–World War II regime designed to receive European migrants has failed to address population movement in the latter half of the twentieth century fueled by economic want, globalization, opening (and then closing) borders, civil strife, and war. Key stakeholders are in favor of using existing instruments to support a series of local, regional, and international arrangements to protect environmental migrants, most of whom will not cross international borders. The proposal for a dedicated UN agency and a new Convention has largely come from academia and NGOs. Migration is now recognized not only as a consequence of instability but as an adaptation strategy to the changing climate. Migration must be anticipated as a certainty, and thereby planned for and supported.
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An Analytical Framework for Assessing Context-Specific Rural Livelihood Vulnerability. SUSTAINABILITY 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/su12145654] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Reviewing both conceptual and empirical studies on climate vulnerability and adaptation assessment, this paper offers an analytical framework to help better understand how context-specific adaptation strategies could be developed. The framework systematically assembles the Sustainable Rural Livelihoods and the Vulnerability Assessment frameworks to develop its structural and analytical components. The resulting five-step approach involves: (i) identification of context along with understanding what aspect of vulnerability need to be studied; (ii) assessment of livelihood exposure to climate impacts involving both community perspectives and meteorological data-based climate forecasts; (iii) characterization of available capital asset usages to help buffer climate sensitivity; (iv) analysis of formal and informal institutional impetus to enhance adaptive capacity; and (v) evaluation of gaps between context-specific vulnerability and institutional and policy responses to avoid maladaptive trajectories. Drawing on published research and policy documentation, we apply the framework to the livelihood systems operating in the northeastern floodplain community of Bangladesh to demonstrate the utility of the approach and then discuss its potential to inform adaptation strategies.
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Semenza JC, Ebi KL. Climate change impact on migration, travel, travel destinations and the tourism industry. J Travel Med 2019; 26:5445924. [PMID: 30976790 PMCID: PMC7107585 DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taz026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2019] [Revised: 04/02/2019] [Accepted: 04/05/2019] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
Background: Climate change is not only increasing ambient temperature but also accelerating the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather and climate events, such as heavy precipitation and droughts, and causing sea level rise, which can lead to population displacement. Climate change-related reductions in land productivity and habitability and in food and water security can also interact with demographic, economic and social factors to increase migration. In addition to migration, climate change has also implications for travel and the risk of disease. This article discusses the impact of climate change on migration and travel with implications for public health practice. Methods: Literature review. Results: Migrants may be at increased risk of communicable and non-communicable diseases, due to factors in their country of origin and their country of destination or conditions that they experience during migration. Although migration has not been a significant driver of communicable disease outbreaks to date, public health authorities need to ensure that effective screening and vaccination programmes for priority communicable diseases are in place.Population growth coupled with socio-economic development is increasing travel and tourism, and advances in technology have increased global connectivity and reduced the time required to cover long distances. At the same time, as a result of climate change, many temperate regions, including high-income countries, are now suitable for vector-borne disease transmission. This is providing opportunities for importation of vectors and pathogens from endemic areas that can lead to cases or outbreaks of communicable diseases with which health professionals may be unfamiliar. Conclusion: Health systems need to be prepared for the potential population health consequences of migration, travel and tourism and the impact of climate change on these. Integrated surveillance, early detection of cases and other public health interventions are critical to protect population health and prevent and control communicabledisease outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jan C Semenza
- Scientific Assessment Section, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Gustav III:s boulevard 40, Solna, Sweden
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, PO Box 354695, Suite 2330, Seattle, WA, USA
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Ali SA, Khatun R, Ahmad A, Ahmad SN. Application of GIS-based analytic hierarchy process and frequency ratio model to flood vulnerable mapping and risk area estimation at Sundarban region, India. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2019. [DOI: 10.1007/s40808-019-00593-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
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9
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Jin L, Whitehead PG, Rodda H, Macadam I, Sarkar S. Simulating climate change and socio-economic change impacts on flows and water quality in the Mahanadi River system, India. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 637-638:907-917. [PMID: 29763871 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.349] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2018] [Revised: 04/10/2018] [Accepted: 04/25/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Delta systems formed by the deposition of sediments at the mouths of large catchments are vulnerable to sea level rise and other climate change impacts. Deltas often have some of the highest population densities in the world and the Mahanadi Delta in India is one of these, with a population of 39 million. The Mahanadi River is a major river in East Central India and flows through Chattisgarh and Orissa states before discharging into the Bay of Bengal. This study uses an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) to simulate flow dynamics and water quality (nitrogen and phosphorus) and to analyze the impacts of climate change and socio-economic drivers in the Mahanadi River system. Future flows affected by large population growth, effluent discharge increases and changes in irrigation water demand from changing land uses are assessed under shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Model results indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates at 2050s (2041-2060) and 2090s (2079-2098) which greatly enhances flood potential. The water availability under low flow conditions will be worsened because of increased water demand from population growth and increased irrigation in the future. Decreased concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus are expected due to increased flow hence dilution. Socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality but less impact on the river flow. For example, higher population growth, increased sewage treatment discharges, land use change and enhanced atmospheric deposition would result in the deterioration of water quality, while the upgrade of the sewage treatment works lead to improved water quality. In summary, socio-economic scenarios would change future water quality of the Mahanadi River and alter nutrient fluxes transported into the delta region. This study has serious implications for people's livelihoods in the deltaic area and could impact coastal and Bay of Bengal water ecology.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li Jin
- Geology Department, State University of New York College at Cortland, Cortland, NY 13045, USA.
| | - Paul G Whitehead
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Harvey Rodda
- Hydro-GIS Ltd, 10 Coles Lane, Chalgrove, Oxfordshire OX44 7SY, United Kingdom
| | - Ian Macadam
- Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
| | - Sananda Sarkar
- School of Civil Engineering, Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology, Bhubaneswar, Odisha 752024, India
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10
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Impact of Tidal Phase on Inundation and Thrust Force Due to Storm Surge. JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/jmse6040110] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Impact of storm surge largely varies depending on the tidal phase during the landfall of a tropical cyclone. This study investigates comparative variance in inundation condition and thrust force for an identical cyclone during low tide and high tide by applying a numerical model (Delft3D) and a semi-analytical model (DFM). A moderate strength cyclone, Mora, which made landfall on Bangladesh coast in May 2017 is selected to study its impact on land during low tide and high tide. Actual landfall time of Mora was during low tide. To study the impact of storm surge during high tide, a synthetic cyclone is created which has similar strength and track to that of Mora but makes landfall during high tide. The results show that inundation depth, inundation extent, and thrust force increase when a cyclone makes landfall during high tide compared to the condition when the cyclone makes landfall during low tide. But the relation between storm surge impact and tidal phase is not linear. It depends on the land topography of the location, direction of cyclone movement, direction and magnitude of water velocity and wind velocity, gradients of water surface and wind velocity, and proximity and position of the location with respect to cyclone track.
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11
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Modelling the Present and Future Water Level and Discharge of the Tidal Betna River. GEOSCIENCES 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/geosciences8080271] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Climate change, comprising of changes in precipitation patterns, higher temperatures and sea level rises, increases the likelihood of future flooding in the Betna River basin, Bangladesh. Hydrodynamic modelling was performed to simulate the present and future water level and discharge for different scenarios using bias-corrected, downscaled data from two general circulation models. The modelling results indicated that, compared to the baseline year (2014–2015), the water level is expected to increase by 11–16% by the 2040s and 14–23% by the 2090s, and the monsoon daily maximum discharge is expected to increase by up to 13% by the 2040s and 21% by the 2090s. Sea level rise is mostly responsible for the increase in water level. The duration of water level exceedance of the established danger threshold and extreme discharge events can increase by up to half a month by the 2040s and above one month by the 2090s. The combined influence of the increased water level and discharge has the potential to cause major floods in the Betna River basin. The results of our study increase the knowledge base on climate change influence on water level and discharge at a local scale. This is valuable for water managers in flood-risk mitigation and water management.
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Szabo S, Brondizio E, Renaud FG, Hetrick S, Nicholls RJ, Matthews Z, Tessler Z, Tejedor A, Sebesvari Z, Foufoula-Georgiou E, da Costa S, Dearing JA. Population dynamics, delta vulnerability and environmental change: comparison of the Mekong, Ganges-Brahmaputra and Amazon delta regions. SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE 2016; 11:539-554. [PMID: 30174738 PMCID: PMC6106096 DOI: 10.1007/s11625-016-0372-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2015] [Accepted: 05/03/2016] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Tropical delta regions are at risk of multiple threats including relative sea level rise and human alterations, making them more and more vulnerable to extreme floods, storms, surges, salinity intrusion, and other hazards which could also increase in magnitude and frequency with a changing climate. Given the environmental vulnerability of tropical deltas, understanding the interlinkages between population dynamics and environmental change in these regions is crucial for ensuring efficient policy planning and progress toward social and ecological sustainability. Here, we provide an overview of population trends and dynamics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra, Mekong and Amazon deltas. Using multiple data sources, including census data and Demographic and Health Surveys, a discussion regarding the components of population change is undertaken in the context of environmental factors affecting the demographic landscape of the three delta regions. We find that the demographic trends in all cases are broadly reflective of national trends, although important differences exist within and across the study areas. Moreover, all three delta regions have been experiencing shifts in population structures resulting in aging populations, the latter being most rapid in the Mekong delta. The environmental impacts on the different components of population change are important, and more extensive research is required to effectively quantify the underlying relationships. The paper concludes by discussing selected policy implications in the context of sustainable development of delta regions and beyond.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sylvia Szabo
- Division of Social Statistics and Demography, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Eduardo Brondizio
- Department of Anthropology, The Anthropological Center for Training and Research on Global Environmental Change and the Ostrom Workshop-Indiana University, Bloomington, USA
| | - Fabrice G. Renaud
- United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, Germany
| | - Scott Hetrick
- Department of Anthropology, The Anthropological Center for Training and Research on Global Environmental Change and the Ostrom Workshop-Indiana University, Bloomington, USA
| | - Robert J. Nicholls
- Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Zoe Matthews
- Division of Social Statistics and Demography, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Zachary Tessler
- Environmental CrossRoads Initiative, City University of New York, New York, USA
| | - Alejandro Tejedor
- Civil, Environmental and Geo-Engineering and National Center for Earth-surface Dynamics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, USA
| | - Zita Sebesvari
- United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, Germany
| | - Efi Foufoula-Georgiou
- Civil, Environmental and Geo-Engineering and National Center for Earth-surface Dynamics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, USA
| | - Sandra da Costa
- Instituto de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento, Universidade do Vale do Paraíba (UNIVAP), São José dos Campos, Brazil
| | - John A. Dearing
- Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
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Payo A, Mukhopadhyay A, Hazra S, Ghosh T, Ghosh S, Brown S, Nicholls RJ, Bricheno L, Wolf J, Kay S, Lázár AN, Haque A. Projected changes in area of the Sundarban mangrove forest in Bangladesh due to SLR by 2100. CLIMATIC CHANGE 2016; 139:279-291. [PMID: 32355374 PMCID: PMC7175699 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1769-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2016] [Accepted: 08/04/2016] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
The Sundarbans mangrove ecosystem, located in India and Bangladesh, is recognized as a global priority for biodiversity conservation and is an important provider of ecosystem services such as numerous goods and protection against storm surges. With global mean sea-level rise projected as up to 0.98 m or greater by 2100 relative to the baseline period (1985-2005), the Sundarbans - mean elevation presently approximately 2 m above mean sea-level - is under threat from inundation and subsequent wetland loss; however the magnitude of loss remains unclear. We used remote and field measurements, geographic information systems and simulation modelling to investigate the potential effects of three sea-level rise scenarios on the Sundarbans within coastal Bangladesh. We illustrate how the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is able to reproduce the observed area losses for the period 2000-2010. Using this calibrated model and assuming that mean sea-level is a better proxy than the SLAMM assumed mean lower low water for Mangrove area delineation, the estimated mangrove area net losses (relative to year 2000) are 81-178 km2, 111-376 km2 and 583-1393 km2 for relative sea-level rise scenarios to 2100 of 0.46 m, 0.75 m and 1.48 m, respectively and net subsidence of ±2.5 mm/year. These area losses are very small (<10 % of present day area) and significantly smaller than previous research has suggested. Our simulations also suggest that erosion rather than inundation may remain the dominant loss driver to 2100 under certain scenarios of sea-level rise and net subsidence. Only under the highest scenarios does inundation due to sea-level rise become the dominant loss process.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andres Payo
- University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ UK
| | | | - Sugata Hazra
- School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, 700 032 India
| | - Tuhin Ghosh
- School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, 700 032 India
| | - Subhajit Ghosh
- School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, 700 032 India
| | - Sally Brown
- University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ UK
- Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich, UK
| | - Robert J. Nicholls
- University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ UK
- Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich, UK
| | | | - Judith Wolf
- National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, L3 5DA UK
| | - Susan Kay
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, PL1 3DH UK
| | | | - Anisul Haque
- Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, 1000 Bangladesh
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