Generating transition states of isomerization reactions with deep learning

TS-tools: Rapid and automated localization of transition states based on a textual reaction SMILES input

Here, TS-tools is presented, a Python package facilitating the automated localization of transition states (TS) based on a textual reaction SMILES input. TS searches can either be performed at xTB or DFT level of theory, with the former yielding guesses at marginal computational cost, and the latter directly yielding accurate structures at greater expense. On a benchmarking dataset of mono- and bimolecular reactions, TS-tools reaches an excellent success rate of 95% already at xTB level of theory. For tri- and multimolecular reaction pathways - which are typically not benchmarked when developing new automated TS search approaches, yet are relevant for various types of reactivity, cf. solvent- and autocatalysis and enzymatic reactivity - TS-tools retains its ability to identify TS geometries, though a DFT treatment becomes essential in many cases. Throughout the presented applications, a particular emphasis is placed on solvation-induced mechanistic changes, another issue that received limited attention in the automated TS search literature so far.

Benchmarking machine-readable vectors of chemical reactions on computed activation barriers

In recent years, there has been a surge of interest in predicting computed activation barriers, to enable the acceleration of the automated exploration of reaction networks. Consequently, various predictive approaches have emerged, ranging from graph-based models to methods based on the three-dimensional structure of reactants and products. In tandem, many representations have been developed to predict experimental targets, which may hold promise for barrier prediction as well. Here, we bring together all of these efforts and benchmark various methods (Morgan fingerprints, the DRFP, the CGR representation-based Chemprop, SLATMd, B2Rl2, EquiReact and language model BERT + RXNFP) for the prediction of computed activation barriers on three diverse datasets.

Machine Learning for Experimental Reactivity of a Set of Metal Clusters toward C-H Activation

Understanding the mechanisms of C-H activation of alkanes is a very important research topic. The reactions of metal clusters with alkanes have been extensively studied to reveal the electronic features governing C-H activation, while the experimental cluster reactivity was qualitatively interpreted case by case in the literature. Herein, we prepared and mass-selected over 100 rhodium-based clusters (RhxVyOz- and RhxCoyOz-) to react with light alkanes, enabling the determination of reaction rate constants spanning six orders of magnitude. A satisfactory model being able to quantitatively describe the rate data in terms of multiple cluster electronic features (average electron occupancy of valence s orbitals, the minimum natural charge on the metal atom, cluster polarizability, and energy gap involved in the agostic interaction) has been constructed through a machine learning approach. This study demonstrates that the general mechanisms governing the very important process of C-H activation by diverse metal centers can be discovered by interpreting experimental data with artificial intelligence.

A Q-learning method based on coarse-to-fine potential energy surface for locating transition state and reaction pathway

Transition state (TS) on the potential energy surface (PES) plays a key role in determining the kinetics and thermodynamics of chemical reactions. Inspired by the fact that the dynamics of complex systems are always driven by rare but significant transition events, we herein propose a TS search method in accordance with the Q-learning algorithm. Appropriate reward functions are set for a given PES to optimize the reaction pathway through continuous trial and error, and then the TS can be obtained from the optimized reaction pathway. The validity of this Q-learning method with reasonable settings of Q-value table including actions, states, learning rate, greedy rate, discount rate, and so on, is exemplified in 2 two-dimensional potential functions. In the applications of the Q-learning method to two chemical reactions, it is demonstrated that the Q-learning method can predict consistent TS and reaction pathway with those by ab initio calculations. Notably, the PES must be well prepared before using the Q-learning method, and a coarse-to-fine PES scanning scheme is thus introduced to save the computational time while maintaining the accuracy of the Q-learning prediction. This work offers a simple and reliable Q-learning method to search for all possible TS and reaction pathway of a chemical reaction, which may be a new option for effectively exploring the PES in an extensive search manner.

Diffusion-based generative AI for exploring transition states from 2D molecular graphs

The exploration of transition state (TS) geometries is crucial for elucidating chemical reaction mechanisms and modeling their kinetics. Recently, machine learning (ML) models have shown remarkable performance for prediction of TS geometries. However, they require 3D conformations of reactants and products often with their appropriate orientations as input, which demands substantial efforts and computational cost. Here, we propose a generative approach based on the stochastic diffusion method, namely TSDiff, for prediction of TS geometries just from 2D molecular graphs. TSDiff outperforms the existing ML models with 3D geometries in terms of both accuracy and efficiency. Moreover, it enables to sample various TS conformations, because it learns the distribution of TS geometries for diverse reactions in training. Thus, TSDiff finds more favorable reaction pathways with lower barrier heights than those in the reference database. These results demonstrate that TSDiff shows promising potential for an efficient and reliable TS exploration.

Accurate transition state generation with an object-aware equivariant elementary reaction diffusion model

Transition state search is key in chemistry for elucidating reaction mechanisms and exploring reaction networks. The search for accurate 3D transition state structures, however, requires numerous computationally intensive quantum chemistry calculations due to the complexity of potential energy surfaces. Here we developed an object-aware SE(3) equivariant diffusion model that satisfies all physical symmetries and constraints for generating sets of structures-reactant, transition state and product-in an elementary reaction. Provided reactant and product, this model generates a transition state structure in seconds instead of hours, which is typically required when performing quantum-chemistry-based optimizations. The generated transition state structures achieve a median of 0.08 Å root mean square deviation compared to the true transition state. With a confidence scoring model for uncertainty quantification, we approach an accuracy required for reaction barrier estimation (2.6 kcal mol-1) by only performing quantum chemistry-based optimizations on 14% of the most challenging reactions. We envision usefulness for our approach in constructing large reaction networks with unknown mechanisms.

Δ2 machine learning for reaction property prediction

The emergence of Δ-learning models, whereby machine learning (ML) is used to predict a correction to a low-level energy calculation, provides a versatile route to accelerate high-level energy evaluations at a given geometry. However, Δ-learning models are inapplicable to reaction properties like heats of reaction and activation energies that require both a high-level geometry and energy evaluation. Here, a Δ2-learning model is introduced that can predict high-level activation energies based on low-level critical-point geometries. The Δ2 model uses an atom-wise featurization typical of contemporary ML interatomic potentials (MLIPs) and is trained on a dataset of ∼167 000 reactions, using the GFN2-xTB energy and critical-point geometry as a low-level input and the B3LYP-D3/TZVP energy calculated at the B3LYP-D3/TZVP critical point as a high-level target. The excellent performance of the Δ2 model on unseen reactions demonstrates the surprising ease with which the model implicitly learns the geometric deviations between the low-level and high-level geometries that condition the activation energy prediction. The transferability of the Δ2 model is validated on several external testing sets where it shows near chemical accuracy, illustrating the benefits of combining ML models with readily available physical-based information from semi-empirical quantum chemistry calculations. Fine-tuning of the Δ2 model on a small number of Gaussian-4 calculations produced a 35% accuracy improvement over DFT activation energy predictions while retaining xTB-level cost. The Δ2 model approach proves to be an efficient strategy for accelerating chemical reaction characterization with minimal sacrifice in prediction accuracy.

Comprehensive exploration of graphically defined reaction spaces

Existing reaction transition state (TS) databases are comparatively small and lack chemical diversity. Here, this data gap has been addressed using the concept of a graphically-defined model reaction to comprehensively characterize a reaction space associated with C, H, O, and N containing molecules with up to 10 heavy (non-hydrogen) atoms. The resulting dataset is composed of 176,992 organic reactions possessing at least one validated TS, activation energy, heat of reaction, reactant and product geometries, frequencies, and atom-mapping. For 33,032 reactions, more than one TS was discovered by conformational sampling, allowing conformational errors in TS prediction to be assessed. Data is supplied at the GFN2-xTB and B3LYP-D3/TZVP levels of theory. A subset of reactions were recalculated at the CCSD(T)-F12/cc-pVDZ-F12 and ωB97X-D2/def2-TZVP levels to establish relative errors. The resulting collection of reactions and properties are called the Reaction Graph Depth 1 (RGD1) dataset. RGD1 represents the largest and most chemically diverse TS dataset published to date and should find immediate use in developing novel machine learning models for predicting reaction properties.

Prediction of transition state structures of gas-phase chemical reactions via machine learning

The elucidation of transition state (TS) structures is essential for understanding the mechanisms of chemical reactions and exploring reaction networks. Despite significant advances in computational approaches, TS searching remains a challenging problem owing to the difficulty of constructing an initial structure and heavy computational costs. In this paper, a machine learning (ML) model for predicting the TS structures of general organic reactions is proposed. The proposed model derives the interatomic distances of a TS structure from atomic pair features reflecting reactant, product, and linearly interpolated structures. The model exhibits excellent accuracy, particularly for atomic pairs in which bond formation or breakage occurs. The predicted TS structures yield a high success ratio (93.8%) for quantum chemical saddle point optimizations, and 88.8% of the optimization results have energy errors of less than 0.1 kcal mol^-1. Additionally, as a proof of concept, the exploration of multiple reaction paths of an organic reaction is demonstrated based on ML inferences. I envision that the proposed approach will aid in the construction of initial geometries for TS optimization and reaction path exploration.

Benchmark of general-purpose machine learning-based quantum mechanical method AIQM1 on reaction barrier heights

Artificial intelligence-enhanced quantum mechanical method 1 (AIQM1) is a general-purpose method that was shown to achieve high accuracy for many applications with a speed close to its baseline semiempirical quantum mechanical (SQM) method ODM2*. Here, we evaluate the hitherto unknown performance of out-of-the-box AIQM1 without any refitting for reaction barrier heights on eight datasets, including a total of ∼24 thousand reactions. This evaluation shows that AIQM1's accuracy strongly depends on the type of transition state and ranges from excellent for rotation barriers to poor for, e.g., pericyclic reactions. AIQM1 clearly outperforms its baseline ODM2* method and, even more so, a popular universal potential, ANI-1ccx. Overall, however, AIQM1 accuracy largely remains similar to SQM methods (and B3LYP/6-31G* for most reaction types) suggesting that it is desirable to focus on improving AIQM1 performance for barrier heights in the future. We also show that the built-in uncertainty quantification helps in identifying confident predictions. The accuracy of confident AIQM1 predictions is approaching the level of popular density functional theory methods for most reaction types. Encouragingly, AIQM1 is rather robust for transition state optimizations, even for the type of reactions it struggles with the most. Single-point calculations with high-level methods on AIQM1-optimized geometries can be used to significantly improve barrier heights, which cannot be said for its baseline ODM2* method.

A self-adapting first-principles exploration on the dissociation mechanism in sodiated aldohexose pyranoses assisted with neural network potentials

Understanding the mechanism of collision-induced dissociation (CID) in mono-saccharides with density functional theory (DFT) is challenging because of many possible reaction paths that originate from their high structural diversity. To search for the transition state (TS) from the huge number of conformers, we propose a three-step search scheme with the assistance of neural network potential (NNP). The search starts from a cross-checking of sugars, to a global search of all possible channels, and in the end, an exhaustive exploration around the low-lying channels. The cross-checking step quickly adapts the NNP from the studied molecules to the target ones. The other two steps utilize the adapted NNP to find the available pathways via random sampling of the structures. The study of the CID reactions in all eight types of aldohexose pyranoses was applied using the search scheme. The DFT calculations on AH-0 (Glc, Gal, and Man) in the previous study were utilized to construct an NNP and provide the TS structure database for searching AH-1 (All, Alt, Gul, Ido, and Tal). In total, we identified around 5200 TSs in AH-0 and AH-1, and the final NNP covers an energy range of more than 500 kJ mol^-1 with a mean absolute error of energy less than 4 kJ mol^-1. The search scheme is useful not only for saccharides but also for highly flexible bio-molecules.

Predictive chemistry: machine learning for reaction deployment, reaction development, and reaction discovery

The field of predictive chemistry relates to the development of models able to describe how molecules interact and react. It encompasses the long-standing task of computer-aided retrosynthesis, but is far more reaching and ambitious in its goals. In this review, we summarize several areas where predictive chemistry models hold the potential to accelerate the deployment, development, and discovery of organic reactions and advance synthetic chemistry.

A Reactive Molecular Dynamics Study of Chlorinated Organic Compounds. Part II: A ChemTraYzer Study of Chlorinated Dibenzofuran Formation and Decomposition Processes

In our two-paper series, we first present the development of ReaxFF CHOCl parameters using the recently published ParAMS parametrization tool. In this second part, we update the reactive Molecular Dynamics - Quantum Mechanics coupling scheme ChemTraYzer and combine it with our new ReaxFF parameters from Part I to study formation and decomposition processes of chlorinated dibenzofurans. We introduce a self-learning method for recovering failed transition-state searches that improves the overall ChemTraYzer transition-state search success rate by 10 percentage points to a total of 48 %. With ChemTraYzer, we automatically find and quantify more than 500 reactions using transition state theory and DFT. Among the discovered chlorinated dibenzofuran reactions are numerous reactions that are new to the literature. In three case studies, we discuss the set of reactions that are most relevant to the dibenzofuran literature: (i) bimolecular reactions of the chlorinated-dibenzofuran precursors phenoxy radical and 1,3,5-trichlorobenzene, (ii) dibenzofuran chlorination and pyrolysis, and (iii) oxidation of chlorinated dibenzofurans.

Graph neural networks for materials science and chemistry

Machine learning plays an increasingly important role in many areas of chemistry and materials science, being used to predict materials properties, accelerate simulations, design new structures, and predict synthesis routes of new materials. Graph neural networks (GNNs) are one of the fastest growing classes of machine learning models. They are of particular relevance for chemistry and materials science, as they directly work on a graph or structural representation of molecules and materials and therefore have full access to all relevant information required to characterize materials. In this Review, we provide an overview of the basic principles of GNNs, widely used datasets, and state-of-the-art architectures, followed by a discussion of a wide range of recent applications of GNNs in chemistry and materials science, and concluding with a road-map for the further development and application of GNNs.

High accuracy barrier heights, enthalpies, and rate coefficients for chemical reactions

Quantitative chemical reaction data, including activation energies and reaction rates, are crucial for developing detailed kinetic mechanisms and accurately predicting reaction outcomes. However, such data are often difficult to find, and high-quality datasets are especially rare. Here, we use CCSD(T)-F12a/cc-pVDZ-F12//ωB97X-D3/def2-TZVP to obtain high-quality single point calculations for nearly 22,000 unique stable species and transition states. We report the results from these quantum chemistry calculations and extract the barrier heights and reaction enthalpies to create a kinetics dataset of nearly 12,000 gas-phase reactions. These reactions involve H, C, N, and O, contain up to seven heavy atoms, and have cleaned atom-mapped SMILES. Our higher-accuracy coupled-cluster barrier heights differ significantly (RMSE of ∼5 kcal mol⁻¹) relative to those calculated at ωB97X-D3/def2-TZVP. We also report accurate transition state theory rate coefficients \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${k}_{\infty }(T)$$\end{document}k∞(T) between 300 K and 2000 K and the corresponding Arrhenius parameters for a subset of rigid reactions. We believe this data will accelerate development of automated and reliable methods for quantitative reaction prediction.

Measurement(s)	Barrier Heights • Enthalpies • Rate Coefficients
Technology Type(s)	ab initio quantum chemistry computational method

Machine Learning Applications for Chemical Reactions

Machine learning (ML) approaches have enabled rapid and efficient molecular property predictions as well as the design of new novel materials. In addition to great success for molecular problems, ML techniques are applied to various chemical reaction problems that require huge costs to solve with the existing experimental and simulation methods. In this review, starting with basic representations of chemical reactions, we summarized recent achievements of ML studies on two different problems; predicting reaction properties and synthetic routes. The various ML models are used to predict physical properties related to chemical reaction properties (e. g. thermodynamic changes, activation barriers, and reaction rates). Furthermore, the predictions of reactivity, self-optimization of reaction, and designing retrosynthetic reaction paths are also tackled by ML approaches. Herein we illustrate various ML strategies utilized in the various context of chemical reaction studies.

Low-cost prediction of molecular and transition state partition functions via machine learning

We have generated an open-source dataset of over 30 000 organic chemistry gas phase partition functions. With this data, a machine learning deep neural network estimator was trained to predict partition functions of unknown organic chemistry gas phase transition states. This estimator only relies on reactant and product geometries and partition functions. A second machine learning deep neural network was trained to predict partition functions of chemical species from their geometry. Our models accurately predict the logarithm of test set partition functions with a maximum mean absolute error of 2.7%. Thus, this approach provides a means to reduce the cost of computing reaction rate constants ab initio. The models were also used to compute transition state theory reaction rate constant prefactors and the results were in quantitative agreement with the corresponding ab initio calculations with an accuracy of 98.3% on the log scale.

Fast Predictions of Reaction Barrier Heights: Toward Coupled-Cluster Accuracy

Quantitative estimates of reaction barriers are essential for developing kinetic mechanisms and predicting reaction outcomes. However, the lack of experimental data and the steep scaling of accurate quantum calculations often hinder the ability to obtain reliable kinetic values. Here, we train a directed message passing neural network on nearly 24,000 diverse gas-phase reactions calculated at CCSD(T)-F12a/cc-pVDZ-F12//ωB97X-D3/def2-TZVP. Our model uses 75% fewer parameters than previous studies, an improved reaction representation, and proper data splits to accurately estimate performance on unseen reactions. Using information from only the reactant and product, our model quickly predicts barrier heights with a testing MAE of 2.6 kcal mol^-1 relative to the coupled-cluster data, making it more accurate than a good density functional theory calculation. Furthermore, our results show that future modeling efforts to estimate reaction properties would significantly benefit from fine-tuning calibration using a transfer learning technique. We anticipate this model will accelerate and improve kinetic predictions for small molecule chemistry.

AMADAR: a python-based package for large scale prediction of Diels-Alder transition state geometries and IRC path analysis

Predicting transition state geometries is one of the most challenging tasks in computational chemistry, which often requires expert-based knowledge and permanent human intervention. This short communication reports technical details and preliminary results of a python-based tool (AMADAR) designed to generate any Diels–Alder (DA) transition state geometry (TS) and analyze determined IRC paths in a (quasi-)automated fashion, given the product SMILES. Two modules of the package are devoted to performing, from IRC paths, reaction force analyses (RFA) and atomic (fragment) decompositions of the reaction force F and reaction force constant \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\kappa$$\end{document}κ. The performance of the protocol has been assessed using a dataset of 2000 DA cycloadducts retrieved from the ZINC database. The sequential location of the corresponding TSs was achieved with a success rate of 95%. RFA plots confirmed the reaction force constant \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\kappa$$\end{document}κ to be a good indicator of the (non)synchronicity of the associated DA reactions. Moreover, the atomic decomposition of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\kappa$$\end{document}κ allows for the rationalization of the (a)synchronicity of each DA reaction in terms of contributions stemming from pairs of interacting atoms. The source code of the AMADAR tool is available on GitHub [CMCDD/AMADAR(github.com)] and can be used directly with minor customizations, mostly regarding the local working environment of the user.

On-The-Fly Kinetics of the Hydrogen Abstraction by Hydroperoxyl Radical: An Application of the Reaction Class Transition State Theory

A Reaction Class Transition State Theory (RC-TST) is applied to calculate thermal rate constants for hydrogen abstraction by OOH radical from alkanes in the temperature range of 300–2500 K. The rate constants for the reference reaction C₂H₆ + ∙OOH → ∙C₂H₅ + H₂O₂, is obtained with the Canonical Variational Transition State Theory (CVT) augmented with the Small Curvature Tunneling (SCT) correction. The necessary parameters were obtained from M06-2X/aug-cc-pVTZ data for a training set of 24 reactions. Depending on the approximation employed, only the reaction energy or no additional parameters are needed to predict the RC-TST rates for other class representatives. Although each of the reactions can in principle be investigated at higher levels of theory, the approach provides a nearly equally reliable rate constant at a fraction of the cost needed for larger and higher level calculations. The systematic error is smaller than 50% in comparison with high level computations. Satisfactory agreement with literature data, augmented by the lack of necessity of tedious and time consuming transition state calculations, facilitated the seamless application of the proposed methodology to the Automated Reaction Mechanism Generators (ARMGs) programs.

Concluding Remarks on Faraday Discussion on Unimolecular Reactions

This Faraday Discussion, marking the centenary of Lindemann’s explanation of the pressure-dependence of unimolecular reactions, presented recent advances in measuring and computing collisional energy transfer efficiencies, microcanonical rate coefficients, pressure-dependent...

Generative adversarial networks for transition state geometry prediction

This work introduces a novel application of generative adversarial networks (GANs) for the prediction of starting geometries in transition state (TS) searches based on the geometries of reactants and products. The multi-dimensional potential energy space of a chemical reaction often complicates the location of a starting TS geometry, leading to the correct TS combining reactants and products in question. The proposed TS-GAN efficiently maps the space between reactants and products and generates reliable TS guess geometries, and it can be easily combined with any quantum chemical software package performing geometry optimizations. The TS-GAN was trained and applied to generate TS guess structures for typical chemical reactions, such as hydrogen migration, isomerization, and transition metal-catalyzed reactions. The performance of the TS-GAN was directly compared to that of classical approaches, proving its high accuracy and efficiency. The current TS-GAN can be extended to any dataset that contains sufficient chemical reactions for training. The software is freely available for training, experimentation, and prediction at https://github.com/ekraka/TS-GAN.

TSNet: predicting transition state structures with tensor field networks and transfer learning

Transition states are among the most important molecular structures in chemistry, critical to a variety of fields such as reaction kinetics, catalyst design, and the study of protein function. However, transition states are very unstable, typically only existing on the order of femtoseconds. The transient nature of these structures makes them incredibly difficult to study, thus chemists often turn to simulation. Unfortunately, computer simulation of transition states is also challenging, as they are first-order saddle points on highly dimensional mathematical surfaces. Locating these points is resource intensive and unreliable, resulting in methods which can take very long to converge. Machine learning, a relatively novel class of algorithm, has led to radical changes in several fields of computation, including computer vision and natural language processing due to its aptitude for highly accurate function approximation. While machine learning has been widely adopted throughout computational chemistry as a lightweight alternative to costly quantum mechanical calculations, little research has been pursued which utilizes machine learning for transition state structure optimization. In this paper TSNet is presented, a new end-to-end Siamese message-passing neural network based on tensor field networks shown to be capable of predicting transition state geometries. Also presented is a small dataset of S_N2 reactions which includes transition state structures - the first of its kind built specifically for machine learning. Finally, transfer learning, a low data remedial technique, is explored to understand the viability of pretraining TSNet on widely available chemical data may provide better starting points during training, faster convergence, and lower loss values. Aspects of the new dataset and model shall be discussed in detail, along with motivations and general outlook on the future of machine learning-based transition state prediction.

Organic reactivity from mechanism to machine learning

As more data are introduced in the building of models of chemical reactivity, the mechanistic component can be reduced until 'big data' applications are reached. These methods no longer depend on underlying mechanistic hypotheses, potentially learning them implicitly through extensive data training. Reactivity models often focus on reaction barriers, but can also be trained to directly predict lab-relevant properties, such as yields or conditions. Calculations with a quantum-mechanical component are still preferred for quantitative predictions of reactivity. Although big data applications tend to be more qualitative, they have the advantage to be broadly applied to different kinds of reactions. There is a continuum of methods in between these extremes, such as methods that use quantum-derived data or descriptors in machine learning models. Here, we present an overview of the recent machine learning applications in the field of chemical reactivity from a mechanistic perspective. Starting with a summary of how reactivity questions are addressed by quantum-mechanical methods, we discuss methods that augment or replace quantum-based modelling with faster alternatives relying on machine learning.

Machine learning meets mechanistic modelling for accurate prediction of experimental activation energies

Accurate prediction of chemical reactions in solution is challenging for current state-of-the-art approaches based on transition state modelling with density functional theory. Models based on machine learning have emerged as a promising alternative to address these problems, but these models currently lack the precision to give crucial information on the magnitude of barrier heights, influence of solvents and catalysts and extent of regio- and chemoselectivity. Here, we construct hybrid models which combine the traditional transition state modelling and machine learning to accurately predict reaction barriers. We train a Gaussian Process Regression model to reproduce high-quality experimental kinetic data for the nucleophilic aromatic substitution reaction and use it to predict barriers with a mean absolute error of 0.77 kcal mol⁻¹ for an external test set. The model was further validated on regio- and chemoselectivity prediction on patent reaction data and achieved a competitive top-1 accuracy of 86%, despite not being trained explicitly for this task. Importantly, the model gives error bars for its predictions that can be used for risk assessment by the end user. Hybrid models emerge as the preferred alternative for accurate reaction prediction in the very common low-data situation where only 100–150 rate constants are available for a reaction class. With recent advances in deep learning for quickly predicting barriers and transition state geometries from density functional theory, we envision that hybrid models will soon become a standard alternative to complement current machine learning approaches based on ground-state physical organic descriptors or structural information such as molecular graphs or fingerprints.

Hybrid reactivity models, combining mechanistic calculations and machine learning with descriptors, are used to predict barriers for nucleophilic aromatic substitution.