Effects of forest disturbance on the fitness of an endemic rodent in a biodiversity hotspot

Praomys delectorum occurs abundantly in both disturbed and intact forests in the Ukaguru Mountains within the Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM), Morogoro, Tanzania. While previous studies have reported that anthropogenic disturbances such as grazing, wood cutting, and harvesting have a positive effect on the population density of P. delectorum, the impact of habitat disturbance on its demographic traits is still unknown. We performed a capture-mark-recapture study in both disturbed and intact forests from June 2018 to February 2020 in order to investigate the effects of habitat disturbance on abundance and two demographic traits: survival and maturation of P. delectorum in the Ukaguru Mountains. We found no variation in abundance or maturation between intact and disturbed forests, but habitat type did affect survival. However, this effect was sex-dependent since female survival was higher in disturbed forests, while male survival remained similar across the two forest types potentially due to differences in predation pressure or food availability between the two habitats. Continuous demographic monitoring of P. delectorum in EAM is necessary given that the increasing human population surrounding the landscape is leading to higher deforestation rates and expansion of the pine plantation in the forest reserve.

Fitness of the pestiferous small rodent Mastomys natalensis in an agroecosystem in Mayuge district, Lake Victoria Crescent, Uganda

A 2.5-year study was conducted to understand the fitness of Mastomys natalensis in an agroecosystem in relationship with environmental predictors. The study was conducted in Mayuge district, in the Lake Victoria Crescent zone in Eastern Uganda. Fitness was measured in terms of survival, maturation and capture probability and estimated using multi-event capture-recapture models. Survival rates were higher after high rainfall in the previous month and increased with increasing population density of the animals. Maturation rate, on the other hand, showed no significant association with any predictor variables, while capture probability was significantly associated with sex of the animals, with higher capture probability for males. The results demonstrate that the fitness of M. natalensis in an agroecosystem is dependent on rainfall, sex and current population density. The aforementioned results were associated with increasing vegetation which provides cover for animal nesting and abundant food for the animals during rainfall periods and thus increased survival, high mobility in males in search for mates thus exposing animals to high chances of being captured and increased prey saturation at high population density resulting in high animal survival. These results have important implications for the timing of management strategies, i.e. control efforts should be enforced during the rainfall seasons to prevent high population buildup in the succeeding seasons.

Full-annual demography and seasonal cycles in a resident vertebrate

Wildlife demography is typically studied at a single point in time within a year when species, often during the reproductive season, are more active and therefore easier to find. However, this provides only a low-resolution glimpse into demographic temporal patterns over time and may hamper a more complete understanding of the population dynamics of a species over the full annual cycle. The full annual cycle is often influenced by environmental seasonality, which induces a cyclic behavior in many species. However, cycles have rarely been explicitly included in models for demographic parameters, and most information on full annual cycle demography is restricted to migratory species. Here we used a high-resolution capture-recapture study of a resident tropical lizard to assess the full intra-annual demography and within-year periodicity in survival, temporary emigration and recapture probabilities. We found important variation over the annual cycle and up to 92% of the total monthly variation explained by cycles. Fine-scale demographic studies and assessments on the importance of cycles within parameters may be a powerful way to achieve a better understanding of population persistence over time.

Arenavirus infection correlates with lower survival of its natural rodent host in a long-term capture-mark-recapture study

BACKGROUND

Parasite evolution is hypothesized to select for levels of parasite virulence that maximise transmission success. When host population densities fluctuate, low levels of virulence with limited impact on the host are expected, as this should increase the likelihood of surviving periods of low host density. We examined the effects of Morogoro arenavirus on the survival and recapture probability of multimammate mice (Mastomys natalensis) using a seven-year capture-mark-recapture time series. Mastomys natalensis is the natural host of Morogoro virus and is known for its strong seasonal density fluctuations.

RESULTS

Antibody presence was negatively correlated with survival probability (effect size: 5-8% per month depending on season) but positively with recapture probability (effect size: 8%).

CONCLUSIONS

The small negative correlation between host survival probability and antibody presence suggests that either the virus has a negative effect on host condition, or that hosts with lower survival probability are more likely to obtain Morogoro virus infection, for example due to particular behavioural or immunological traits. The latter hypothesis is supported by the positive correlation between antibody status and recapture probability which suggests that risky behaviour might increase the probability of becoming infected.

Survival and recruitment of the multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis (Smith 1834), in a rice agro-ecosystem

We investigated the recruitment and survival of the multimammate mouse,

Developing, testing and application of rodent population dynamics and capture models based on an adjusted Leslie matrix-based population approach

Small rodents in general and the multimammate rat Apodemus agrarius in particular, damage crops and cause major economic losses in China. Therefore, accurate predictions of the population size of A. agrarius and an efficient control strategy are urgently needed. We developed a population dynamics model by applying a Leslie matrix method, and a capture model based on optimal harvesting theory for A. agrarius. Our models were parametrized using demographic estimates from a capture–mark–recapture (CMR) study conducted on the Qinshui Forest Farm in Northwestern China. The population dynamics model incorporated 12 equally balanced age groups and included immigration and emigration parameters. The model was evaluated by assessing the predictions for four years based on the known starting population in 2004 from the 2004–2007 CMR data. The capture model incorporated two functional age categories (juvenile and adult) and used density-dependent and density-independent factors. The models were used to assess the effect of rodent control measures between 2004 and 2023 on population dynamics and the resulting numbers of rats. Three control measures affecting survival rates were considered. We found that the predicted population dynamics of A. agrarius between 2004 and 2007 compared favorably with the observed population dynamics. The models predicted that the population sizes of A. agrarius in the period between 2004 and 2023 under the control measure applied in August 2004 were very similar to the optimal population sizes, and no significant difference was found between the two population sizes. We recommend using the population dynamics and capture models based on CMR-estimated demographic schedules for rodent, provided these data are available. The models that we have developed have the potential to play an important role in predicting the effects of rodent management and in evaluating different control strategies.

Determinants of lifetime reproduction in female brown bears: early body mass, longevity, and hunting regulations

In iteroparous mammals, conditions experienced early in life may have long-lasting effects on lifetime reproductive success. Human-induced mortality is also an important demographic factor in many populations of large mammals and may influence lifetime reproductive success. Here, we explore the effects of early development, population density, and human hunting on survival and lifetime reproductive success in brown bear (Ursus arctos) females, using a 25-year database of individually marked bears in two populations in Sweden. Survival of yearlings to 2 years was not affected by population density or body mass. Yearlings that remained with their mother had higher survival than independent yearlings, partly because regulations prohibit the harvest of bears in family groups. Although mass as a yearling did not affect juvenile survival, it was positively associated with measures of lifetime reproductive success and individual fitness. The majority of adult female brown bear mortality (72%) in our study was due to human causes, mainly hunting, and many females were killed before they reproduced. Therefore, factors allowing females to survive several hunting seasons had a strong positive effect on lifetime reproductive success. We suggest that, in many hunted populations of large mammals, sport harvest is an important influence on both population dynamics and life histories.

Dispersal in Mastomys natalensis mice: use of fine-scale genetic analyses for pest management

Mastomys natalensis is the major pest rodent in sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, population genetic techniques were used to gain new insights into its dispersal behaviour, a critical parameter in pest management. Using 11 microsatellites, 272 individuals from a 300 ha area in Tanzania were genotyped. Genetic diversity was high, with no isolation by distance and little differentiation between field plots far apart, indicating a large effective population size and high dispersal rates in agreement with ecological observations. On the other hand, genetic differentiation between nearby field plots, isolation by distance within a single field plot and kin clustering were also observed. This apparent contradiction may be explained by yearly founder effects of a small number of breeding individuals per square area, which is consistent with the presence of linkage disequilibrium. An alternative, not mutually exclusive explanation is that there are both dispersing and sedentary animals in the population. The low-density field plots were characterized by low relatedness and small genetic distances to other field plots, indicating a high turnover rate and negative density-dependent dispersal. In one field plot female-biased dispersal was observed, which may be related to inbreeding avoidance or female competition for resources. Most juveniles appeared to be local recruits, but they did not seem to stay in their native area for more than two months. Finally, possible implications for pest management are discussed.

Assessing the impact of climate variation on survival in vertebrate populations

The impact of the ongoing rapid climate change on natural systems is a major issue for human societies. An important challenge for ecologists is to identify the climatic factors that drive temporal variation in demographic parameters, and, ultimately, the dynamics of natural populations. The analysis of long-term monitoring data at the individual scale is often the only available approach to estimate reliably demographic parameters of vertebrate populations. We review statistical procedures used in these analyses to study links between climatic factors and survival variation in vertebrate populations. We evaluated the efficiency of various statistical procedures from an analysis of survival in a population of white stork, Ciconia ciconia, a simulation study and a critical review of 78 papers published in the ecological literature. We identified six potential methodological problems: (i) the use of statistical models that are not well-suited to the analysis of long-term monitoring data collected at the individual scale; (ii) low ratios of number of statistical units to number of candidate climatic covariates; (iii) collinearity among candidate climatic covariates; (iv) the use of statistics, to assess statistical support for climatic covariates effects, that deal poorly with unexplained variation in survival; (v) spurious detection of effects due to the co-occurrence of trends in survival and the climatic covariate time series; and (vi) assessment of the magnitude of climatic effects on survival using measures that cannot be compared across case studies. The critical review of the ecological literature revealed that five of these six methodological problems were often poorly tackled. As a consequence we concluded that many of these studies generated hypotheses but only few provided solid evidence for impacts of climatic factors on survival or reliable measures of the magnitude of such impacts. We provide practical advice to solve efficiently most of the methodological problems identified. The only frequent issue that still lacks a straightforward solution was the low ratio of the number of statistical units to the number of candidate climatic covariates. In the perspective of increasing this ratio and therefore of producing more robust analyses of the links between climate and demography, we suggest leads to improve the procedures for designing field protocols and selecting a set of candidate climatic covariates. Finally, we present recent statistical methods with potential interest for assessing the impact of climatic factors on demographic parameters.

Annual flooding, survival and recruitment in a rodent population from the Niger River plain in Mali

Multimammate rats of the genus Mastomys are among the most widespread pest species in Africa. Previous studies of Mastomys population dynamics have generally reported variation in abundance but few have investigated the demographic parameters underlying this variation, and in particular recruitment. Capture-mark-recapture data were collected for Mastomys erythroleucus several times a year from 2000 to 2004 at a site annually flooded by the Niger River in Mali. Closed-population models were used to estimate population abundance. Both seniority (a parameter inversely linked to recruitment) and survival probabilities were estimated by capture-mark-recapture models. The impacts of water level, population abundance and cumulative rainfall were assessed for each demographic parameter. Survival probabilities (local survival) were negatively correlated with water level, suggesting that rodents emigrated out of the study zone during flooding. As for seniority probabilities, 86% of temporal variation was explained by a model with season, abundance, water level and the interaction between abundance and water level. This suggests that density-dependence in recruitment was mediated by intraspecific competition for food or refuge from floodwaters, or by predation. The flood of the Niger River greatly impacts Mastomys erythroleucus population dynamics, affecting both survival and seniority probabilities.

Population genetic structure of two ecologically distinct multimammate rats: the commensal Mastomys natalensis and the wild Mastomys erythroleucus in southeastern Senegal

Using the same set of microsatellite markers, we compared the population genetic structure of two Mastomys species, one being exclusively commensal in southeastern Senegal, and the other being continuously distributed outside villages in this region. Both species were sampled in the same landscape context and at the same spatial scale. According to the expectations based on the degree of habitat patchiness (which is higher for commensal populations in this rural area), genetic diversity was lower and genetic differentiation was higher in commensal populations of Mastomys natalensis than in wild populations of Mastomys erythroleucus. Contrasting estimates of effective dispersal and current migration rates corroborates previous data on differences in social structure between the two species. Isolation-by-distance analyses showed that human-mediated dispersal is not a major factor explaining the pattern of genetic differentiation for M. natalensis, and that gene flow is high and random between M. erythroleucus populations at the spatial scale considered.

Host ecology and variation in helminth community structure in Mastomys rodents from Senegal

We studied patterns of variation in parasite communities of 2 closely related species of Mastomys rodents. These 2 species live in sympatry in South-eastern Senegal, but differ drastically in their habitat choice. We asked (a) whether the host species have the same parasites; (b) whether there is any observable pattern relative to the host species/habitat type in the structure of parasite communities; (c) whether the variability in parasite community for each host species is related to habitat characteristics. We analysed 220 and 264 individuals of each host species, sampled respectively in 10 and 11 trap sites. Twenty parasite taxa were recorded, and the majority were nematodes. Between-host species comparisons showed that helminth communities were slightly more diversified in M. natalensis. Many parasite species were found in both Mastomys. However, various helminth taxa varied in frequency and abundance between host species. Within each host species, helminth diversity, prevalence and/or abundance of some parasites were correlated with habitat or host population factors that may influence parasite life-cycles, such as village structure, or the presence/absence of a pool. Our results suggest that habitat characteristics have a strong impact on helminth community structure.

Population dynamics of small mammals in semi-arid regions: a comparative study of demographic variability in two rodent species

The seasonally determined demographic structure of two semi-arid rodents, both agricultural pest species (the leaf-eared mouse (Phyllotis darwini) in Chile and the multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) in Tanzania), is analysed using capture-mark-recapture (CMR) statistical models and measures for elasticity (the relative change in the growth rate due to a relative unit change in the parameter of concern) derived from projection linear matrix models. We demonstrate that reproduction and survival during the breeding season contribute approximately equally to population growth in the leaf-eared mouse, whereas the multimammate mouse is characterized by a more clearly defined seasonal structure into breeding and non-breeding seasons and that reproduction contributes far more than survival during the breeding season. On this basis, we discuss evolutionary and applied (pest control) issues. Regarding the evolution of life histories (leading to a maximization of the overall net annual growth rate), we suggest that for the leaf-eared mouse, features favouring survival throughout the year will provide selective value, but that during the main breeding season, features favouring reproduction and survival are about equally favourable. For the multimammate mouse, features favouring survival are particularly important outside the breeding season, whereas during the breeding season features favouring reproduction are more important. Regarding pest control (aiming at reducing the overall net annual growth rate), we suggest that (ignoring economic considerations) affecting survival outside the main breeding season is particularly effective for the leaf-eared mouse, a feature that is even more the case for the multimammate mouse. In sum, we demonstrate through this comparative study that much is to be learnt from studying the dynamics of fluctuating small rodents-a focal issue within much of population ecology.

Demography and population dynamics of the mouse opossum (Thylamys elegans) in semi-arid Chile: seasonality, feedback structure and climate

Here we present, to the authors' knowledge for the very first time for a small marsupial, a thorough analysis of the demography and population dynamics of the mouse opossum (Thylamys elegans) in western South America. We test the relative importance of feedback structure and climatic factors (rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index) in explaining the temporal variation in the demography of the mouse opossum. The demographic information was incorporated into a stage-structured population dynamics model and the model's predictions were compared with observed patterns. The mouse opossum's capture rates showed seasonal (within-year) and between-year variability, with individuals having higher capture rates during late summer and autumn and lower capture rates during winter and spring. There was also a strong between-year effect on capture probabilities. The reproductive (the fraction of reproductively active individuals) and recruitment rates showed a clear seasonal and a between-year pattern of variation with the peak of reproductive activity occuring during winter and early spring. In addition, the fraction of reproductive individuals was positively related to annual rainfall, while population density and annual rainfall positively influenced the recruitment rate. The survival rates were negatively related to annual rainfall. The average finite population growth rate during the study period was estimated to be 1.011 +/- 0.0019 from capture-recapture estimates. While the annual growth rate estimated from the seasonal linear matrix models was 1.026, the subadult and adult survival and maturation rates represent between 54% (winter) and 81% (summer) of the impact on the annual growth rate.