The cost of inappropriate admissions: a study of health benefits and resource utilization in a department of internal medicine

Incidence of moral hazards among health care providers in the implementation of social health insurance toward universal health coverage: evidence from rural province hospitals in Indonesia

Objective

To identify the incidence of moral hazards among health care providers and its determinant factors in the implementation of national health insurance in Indonesia.

Methods

Data were derived from 360 inpatient medical records from six types C public and private hospitals in an Indonesian rural province. These data were accumulated from inpatient medical records from four major disciplines: medicine, surgery, obstetrics and gynecology, and pediatrics. The dependent variable was provider moral hazards, which included indicators of up-coding, readmission, and unnecessary admission. The independent variables are Physicians' characteristics (age, gender, and specialization), coders' characteristics (age, gender, education level, number of training, and length of service), and patients' characteristics (age, birth weight, length of stay, the discharge status, and the severity of patient's illness). We use logistic regression to investigate the determinants of moral hazard.

Results

We found that the incidences of possible unnecessary admissions, up-coding, and readmissions were 17.8%, 11.9%, and 2.8%, respectively. Senior physicians, medical specialists, coders with shorter lengths of service, and patients with longer lengths of stay had a significant relationship with the incidence of moral hazard.

Conclusion

Unnecessary admission is the most common form of a provider's moral hazard. The characteristics of physicians and coders significantly contribute to the incidence of moral hazard. Hospitals should implement reward and punishment systems for doctors and coders in order to control moral hazards among the providers.

Qualitative analysis of disposition decision making for patients referred for admission from the emergency department without definite medical acuity

OBJECTIVE

To map the physician approach when determining disposition for a patient who presents without the level of definite medical acuity that would generally warrant hospitalisation.

DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING

Since 2018, our US academic county hospital/trauma centre has maintained a database in which hospitalists ('triage physicians') document the rationale and outcomes of requests for admission to the acute care medical ward during each shift.

STUDY DESIGN

Narrative text from the database was analysed using a grounded theory approach to identify major themes and subthemes, and a conceptual model of the admission decision-making process was constructed.

PARTICIPANTS

Database entries were included (n=300) if the admission call originated from the emergency department and if the triage physician characterised the request as potentially inappropriate because the patient did not have definite medical acuity.

RESULTS

Admission decision making occurs in three main phases: evaluation of unmet needs, assessment of risk and re-evaluation. Importantly, admission decision making is not solely based on medical acuity or clinical algorithms, and patients without a definite medical need for admission are hospitalised when physicians believe a potential issue exists if discharged. In this way, factors such as homelessness, substance use disorder, frailty, etc, contribute to admission because they raise concern about patient safety and/or barriers to appropriate treatment. Physician decision making can be altered by activities such as care coordination, advocacy by the patient or surrogate, interactions with other physicians or a change in clinical trajectory.

CONCLUSIONS

The decision to admit ultimately remains a clinical determination constructed between physician and patient. Physicians use a holistic process that incorporates broad consideration of the patient's medical and social needs with emphasis on risk assessment; thus, any analysis of hospitalisation trends or efforts to impact such should seek to understand this individual-level decision making.

Inappropriate Rate of Admission and Hospitalization in the Iranian Hospitals: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Inappropriate admission and hospitalization are types of overuse that impose a financial burden on all health systems, especially in hospitals.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the evidence on the inappropriateness of admission and hospitalization in Iranian hospitals.

METHODS

This study was conducted using PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science, as well as Persian databases, including Magiran and Scientific Information Database up to May 2018. Two researchers extracted result of the included studies, independently. We used Cohen's κ statistic for measuring inter-rater agreement. The meta-analyses were conducted based on pooled effect estimates for the rate of admission and hospitalization using the DerSimonian-Laird random-effects model with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Seventeen articles met the inclusion criteria. The inter-rater agreement was very good for abstracts and full-texts screening (κ 0.86 and 98, respectively). The overall inappropriate rate was 12.3% (95% CI, 8.4-17.5) and 11.9% (95% CI, 7.7-18.1) for admission and hospitalization, respectively. The inappropriate rate of admission was significantly higher before the Health Sector Evolution Plan (HSEP) than after HSEP (14.6%, 95% CI, 8.6-23.6 before HSEP and 10%, 95% CI, 5.5-17.3 after HSEP), and the inappropriate rate of hospitalization was significantly higher after HSEP than before HESP (9.5%, 95% CI, 5.2-16.7 before HSEP and 16.9%, 95% CI, 8.2-31.7 after HSEP).

CONCLUSIONS

Adoption standard measures of admission and hospitalization, treating patients in appropriate care centers, and establishing a referral system is essential to reduce the inappropriate admission and hospitalization in Iranian hospitals. Such interventions can lead to a reduction in personnel costs and workload and ultimately increase the productivity of the hospital.

Effect of inappropriate admissions on hospitalization performance in county hospitals: a cross-sectional study in rural China

BACKGROUND

Inappropriate admissions cause excessive utilization of health services compared with outpatient services. However, it is still unclear whether inappropriate admissions cause excessive use of health services compared with appropriate admissions. This study aims to clarify the differences in the hospitalization performances between appropriately admitted inpatients and inappropriately admitted inpatients.

METHODS

A total of 2575 medical records were obtained after cluster sampling in three counties. Admission appropriateness was assessed by appropriateness evaluation protocol (AEP). The propensity score matching (PSM) was computed to match patients in treatment and control group with similar characteristics, and to examine the differences in the utilization of hospitalization services between the two groups. The samples were matched in two major steps in this study. In the first step, total samples were matched to examine the differences in the utilization of hospital services between the two groups using 15 individual covariates. In the second step, PSM was computed to analyze the differences between the two groups in different disease systems using 14 individual covariates.

RESULTS

For the whole sample, the inappropriate group has lower expenditure of hospitalization (EOH) (difference = - 0.12, p = 0.003) and shorter length of stay (LOS) (difference = - 0.73, p = 0.016) than the appropriate group. For number of clinical inspection (NCI), it has no statistically significant difference (difference = - 0.39, p = 0.082) between the two groups. Among different disease systems, no significant differences were observed between the two groups among EOH, LOS and NCI, except that the EOH was lower in the inappropriate group than that in the appropriate group for surgical disease (difference = - 0.169, p = 0.043).

CONCLUSION

Inappropriate admissions have generated excessive health service utilization compared with appropriate admissions, especially for internal diseases. The departments in charge of medical services and hospital managers should pay high attention to the health service utilization of the inappropriately admitted inpatients. Relevant medical policies should be designed or optimized to increase the appropriateness in health care service delivery and precision in clinical pathway management.

Understanding Emergency Care Delivery Through Computer Simulation Modeling

In 2017, Academic Emergency Medicine convened a consensus conference entitled, "Catalyzing System Change through Health Care Simulation: Systems, Competency, and Outcomes." This article, a product of the breakout session on "understanding complex interactions through systems modeling," explores the role that computer simulation modeling can and should play in research and development of emergency care delivery systems. This article discusses areas central to the use of computer simulation modeling in emergency care research. The four central approaches to computer simulation modeling are described (Monte Carlo simulation, system dynamics modeling, discrete-event simulation, and agent-based simulation), along with problems amenable to their use and relevant examples to emergency care. Also discussed is an introduction to available software modeling platforms and how to explore their use for research, along with a research agenda for computer simulation modeling. Through this article, our goal is to enhance adoption of computer simulation, a set of methods that hold great promise in addressing emergency care organization and design challenges.

Role of emerging private hospitals in a post-Soviet mixed health system: a mixed methods comparative study of private and public hospital inpatient care in Mongolia

Background

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990 severely impacted the health sector in Mongolia. Limited public funding for the post-Soviet model public system and a rapid growth of poorly regulated private providers have been pressing issues for a government seeking to re-establish universal health coverage. However, the evidence available on the role of private providers that would inform sector management is very limited. This study analyses the current contribution of private hospitals in Mongolia for the improvement of accessibility of health care and efficiency.

Methods

We used mixed research methods. A descriptive analysis of nationally representative hospital admission records from 2013 was followed by semi-structured interviews that were carried out with purposively selected key informants (N = 45), representing the main actors in Mongolia's mixed health system.

Results

Private-for-profit hospitals are concentrated in urban areas, where their financial model is most viable. The result is the duplication of private and public inpatient services, both in terms of their geographical location and the range of services delivered. The combination of persistent inpatient-oriented care and perverse financial incentives that privilege admission over outpatient management, have created unnecessary health costs. The engagement of the private sector to improve population health outcomes is constrained by a series of issues of governance, regulation and financing and the failure of the state to manage the private sector as an integral part of its health system planning.

Discussions/Conclusion

For a mixed system like in Mongolia, a comprehensive policy and plan which defines the complementary role of private providers to optimize private public service mix is critical in the early stages of the private sector development. It further supports the importance of a system perspective that combines regulation and incentives in consistent policy, rather than an isolated approach to provide regulation.

Impact of consultant specialty on discharge decisions in patients admitted as medical emergencies to hospitals in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

The Society for Acute Medicine's Benchmarking Audit (SAMBA) annually examines Clinical Quality Indicators (CQIs) of the care of patients admitted to UK hospitals as medical emergencies.

AIM

The aim of this study is to review the impact of consultant specialty on discharge decisions in the SAMBA data-set.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Prospective audit of patients admitted to acute medical units (AMUs) on 25 June 2015 to participating hospitals throughout the UK with subgroup analysis.

RESULTS

Eighty-three units submitted patient data from 3138 patients.Nearly 1845 (58%, IQR for units 50-69%) of patients were referrals from Emergency Medicine, 1072 (32%, IQR for units 24-44%) were referrals from Primary Care. The mean age was 65 (SD 20). One hundred and forty-one (4.5%) patients were admitted from care homes and 951 (30%) of patients were at least 'mildly frail' and 407 (13%) had signs of physiological instability. The median and the mean time to being seen by a doctor were 1 h 20 min and 2 h 3 min, respectively. The median and the mean time to being seen by senior specialist were 3 h 55 min and 5 h 56 min, respectively. By 72 h, 29 (1%) patients had died in the AMU, 73 were admitted to critical care units, 1297 (41%) had been discharged to their own home and 60 to nursing or residential homes. For every 100 patients seen specialists in acute medicine discharged 12 more patients than specialists from other disciplines of medicine ( P  < 0.001). The difference remained significant after adjustment for case mix.

CONCLUSION

Specialist in acute care might facilitate discharge in a higher proportion of patients.

Preventable Admissions on a General Medicine Service: Prevalence, Causes and Comparison with AHRQ Prevention Quality Indicators-A Cross-Sectional Analysis

BACKGROUND

Rates of preventable admissions will soon be publicly reported and used in calculating performance-based payments. The current method of assessing preventable admissions, the Agency of Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) Preventable Quality Indicators (PQI) rate, is drawn from claims data and was originally designed to assess population-level access to care.

OBJECTIVE

To identify the prevalence and causes of preventable admissions by attending physician review and to compare its performance with the PQI tool in identifying preventable admissions.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional survey.

SETTING

General medicine service at an academic medical center.

PARTICIPANTS

Consecutive inpatient admissions from December 1-15, 2013.

MAIN MEASURES

Survey of inpatient attending physicians regarding the preventability of the admissions, primary contributing factors and feasibility of prevention. For the same patients, the PQI tool was applied to determine the claims-derived preventable admission rate.

KEY RESULTS

Physicians rated all 322 admissions and classified 122 (38 %) as preventable, of which 31 (25 %) were readmissions. Readmissions were more likely to be rated preventable than other admissions (49 % vs. 35 %, p = 0.04). Application of the AHRQ PQI methodology identified 75 (23 %) preventable admissions. Thirty-one admissions (10 %) were classified as preventable by both methods, and the majority of admissions considered preventable by the AHRQ PQI method (44/78) were not considered preventable by physician assessment (K = 0.04). Of the preventable admissions, physicians assigned patient factors in 54 (44 %), clinician factors in 36 (30 %) and system factors in 32 (26 %).

CONCLUSIONS

A large proportion of admissions to a general medicine service appeared preventable, but AHRQ's PQI tool was unable to identify these admissions. Before initiation of the PQI rate for use in pay-for-performance programs, further study is warranted.

French Multicenter Evaluation of the Appropriateness of Admission to the Emergency Department of the Over-80s

BACKGROUND

Persons over 80 represents 40% of patients in French emergency services. We assessed the appropriateness of these admissions and sought to identify risk factors for inappropriate hospital stays.

METHODS

The appropriateness of admission was assessed in a prospective, cross-sectional, multicenter study in eight hospitals in France by means of the Appropriateness Evaluation Protocol (French version, AEPf) during two non-consecutive periods of four weeks in 2010. We analyzed admission of patients aged 80 and over who were admitted to the hospital after a stay in the emergency department of the same hospital. Demographics and morbidity factors were recorded as were administrative hospitalization data to identify risk factors associated with inappropriate admissions. We also evaluated the economic impact of inappropriate admissions. For cost analysis, all variables were obtained from anonymized hospital reports of a diagnosis-related group system used for funding of the hospitals by health insurance.

RESULTS

During two different periods, 1577 patients were included. 139 (8.8%) hospital admissions were inappropriate according to explicit criteria of the AEPf, but 18 of these (1.1%) were in fact considered appropriate by the physician responsible for the admission, leading to 121 (7.7%) inappropriate admissions. Multivariate logistic regression showed that patients with heart disease were less often subject to inappropriate admission (odds ratio OR= 0.36 [0.23; 0.56], p < 0.001), as also were patients who usually lived in a nursing home (OR = 0.53 [0.30; 0.87], p = 0.018) and patients with higher Acute Physiology Scores (OR = 0.97 [0.95; 0.99], p < 0.001). Inappropriate admission increased when patients had a syndrome as the main diagnosis (OR = 1.81 [1.81; 2.83], p = 0.010). By contrast, cognitive functions, gait and balance disturbance or falls, behavioral disorders and method of transport to the emergency department did not change the probability of inappropriateness. The median cost of the hospital stay of an older patient was 3 606.5 [2 498.1; 4 994.2] euros for inappropriate admissions.

CONCLUSION

Inappropriate emergency admissions of older patients were infrequent. None of the geriatric syndromes were linked with the phenomenon and principle causes were severity of illness, mention of a cardiac disease, unclear pattern of consultation and institutionalized way of life.

Utilisation of beds on the general medical unit by 'non-acute medical' patients: a retrospective study of incidence and cost in two Tasmanian regional medical hospital units

BACKGROUND

Demand for healthcare services threatens to overwhelm the Australian healthcare system. Public hospitals have the largest component of expenditure growth and as such represent the largest opportunity for efficiency gains. Utilisation of inpatient hospital beds and in particular those on general medical units has not been studied in Australia.

AIM

To undertake a retrospective patient medical record review of 200 sequential admissions to the medical wards in two regional Tasmanian hospitals to determine the incidence of non-acute medical patient admission to the medical unit, and the subsequent days in hospital that were not required for medical reasons. The cost of these days was estimated.

RESULTS

Sixteen patient admissions (8%) could not be justified on medical grounds. Forty-eight (24%) patient admissions had at least one day hospital day that could not be justified on medical grounds. Of the 1438 total bed days, 475 (33%) were for non-medical reasons. The estimated cost of those non-medical bed days for this cohort was $764 800.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of non-acute medical admissions and non-acute medical bed days to the medical unit and associated cost was significant. Further research is needed to design alternative care provision for such patients particularly in regional Australia. The potential savings to the Australian healthcare system could be significant.

Avoidable emergency admissions?

BACKGROUND

Use of specialist healthcare services is increasing.

AIM

To evaluate whether alternative healthcare services could reduce the need for admissions to specialist care hospitals.

DESIGN

Prospective observational study of emergency referrals for admission to specialist care.

SETTING

A single out-of-hours primary care centre (OPCC) in Norway.

METHOD

Out-of-hours physicians registered their referrals for hospital admission and stated whether the admission could have been avoided given the availability of six other healthcare services.

RESULTS

Of 1083 registered encounters at the OPCC, 152 (14%) were referred for specialist care hospital admission. According to the referring physician, 32 (21%) of these referrals could have been avoided. The most eligible alternatives to such referrals were next-day appointments at a specialist outpatient clinic (11 of 32 referrals), or admission to a community hospital (21 of 32 referrals), or a nursing home (nine of 32 referrals). Respiratory (eight of 32 referrals) and gastrointestinal problems (12 of 32 referrals) were the most common among avoidable admissions.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of specialist care hospital admission can be reduced if appropriate alternatives are available.

Admissions to a Norwegian emergency psychiatric ward: patient characteristics and referring agents. A prospective study

BACKGROUND

In Norway, general practitioners serve as gatekeepers for specialist psychiatric care. Out-of-hours primary healthcare (i.e. casualty clinics) is responsible for the major part of acute psychiatric referrals. There are concerns regarding regular general practitioners' (rGPs') role in emergency psychiatric care of their enlisted patients. Also, the quality of casualty clinics' care and their gatekeeper function are questioned.

AIMS

To investigate differences between acute admissions to a psychiatric hospital from casualty clinics, rGPs, specialist psychiatric services and other specialist services regarding characteristics of patients and circumstances of the referrals.

METHODS

A prospective observational study. In the period of 1 May 2005 to 30 April 2008, anonymous information was recorded for all consecutive admissions (n = 5317) to the psychiatric acute unit (PAU) at a psychiatric hospital serving 400,000 inhabitants. The recorded information was: referring agent, circumstances of the referral, patient characteristics, and assessments by the receiving psychiatric resident and the therapist in charge of treatment at the PAU.

RESULTS

There were only small differences between patients referred to PAU from casualty clinics, rGPs, specialist psychiatric services and other specialist services. The referrals from the different referring agents seemed equally well founded. However, the casualty clinics used more police assistance and coercion, and legal basis for admissions was more frequently converted than for other referring agents.

CONCLUSION

Casualty clinics seem to function adequately as gatekeepers. The high proportion of casualty clinic referrals with converted legal basis might indicate unnecessary use of coercion.

An ecological study on the relationship between supply of beds in long-term care institutions in Italy and potential care needs for the elderly

Background

The ageing population in Europe is putting an ever increasing demand on the long-term care (LTC) services provided by these countries. This study analyses the relationship between the LTC institutional supply of beds and potential care needs, taking into account the social and health context, the supply of complementary and alternative services, along with informal care.

Methods

An observational, cross-sectional, ecological study was carried out. Statistical data were obtained from the Italian National Institute of Statistics and Ministry of Health. Indicators, regarding 5 areas (Supply of beds in long term care institutions, Potential care needs, Social and health context, Complementary and alternative services for the elderly, Informal care), were calculated at Local Health Unit (LHU) level and referred to 2004.

Two indicators were specifically used to measure supply of beds in long term care institutions and potential care needs for the elderly. Their values were grouped in tertiles. LHU were classified according to the combination of tertiles in three groups: A. High level of supply of beds in long term care institutions associated with low level of potential care needs; B. Low level of supply of beds in long term care institutions associated with high level of potential care needs; C. Balanced level of supply of beds in long term care institutions with potential care needs. For each group the indicators of 5 areas were analysed.

The Index Number (IN) was calculated for each of these indicators.

Results

Specific factors that need to be carefully considered were highlighted in each of the three defined groups. The highest level of alternative services such as long-stay hospital discharges in residence region (IN = 125), home care recipients (HCR) (IN = 123.8) were reported for Group A. This group included North regions. The highest level of inappropriate hospital discharges in (IN = 124.1) and out (IN = 155.8) the residence region, the highest value of families who received help (IN = 106.4) and the lowest level of HCR (IN = 68.7) were found in Group B. South regions belong to this group. The highest level of families paying a caregiver (IN = 115.8) was shown in Group C. Central regions are included in third group.

Conclusion

Supply of beds in long term care institutions substantially differs across Italian regions, showing in every scenario some imbalances between potential care needs and other studied factors. Our study suggests the need of a comprehensive rethinking of care delivery "system".

[Inappropriateness of hospital use in two acute geriatrics department: description of the phenomenon and analysis of risk factors]

BACKGROUND

Inappropriateness of hospital use occurs when a gap between the patient's needs and the level of care delivered exists. Taking into account the improvement of number of acute geriatric care, it appears relevant to study the rate and causes of inappropriate hospital use in this context.

METHODS

All patients in two services of acute geriatrics were included: medical and socioeconomic data were collected, the appropriateness of each day of their hospitalization was evaluated using the French version of the Appropriateness Evaluation Protocol and the inappropriate days' Causes Analysis Protocol. Risk factors of having at least one inappropriate day occurring during the stay were searched using relevant statistical tests. A logistic regression model assessed influence of independent variables on the risk of inappropriateness.

RESULTS

Only the existence of cognitive impairment and the department where the hospitalization takes place were found to be risk factors of inappropriateness. The ranking of inappropriateness according to the causes is the same in the two services, yet with statistically different rates, in particular for causes related to waiting for admission in subacute or long-term care institutional network and for a service provided outside the hospital where the patient was admitted. In the two departments, over 25% of the inappropriate days were related to a patient's or his family's choice.

CONCLUSION

Access to subacute or long-term care institution is the first cause of inappropriate hospital use in the two departments. The importance of the rate of inappropriate days related to a choice of the patient or his family was probably a Geriatric specificity. Furthermore, in view of reducing the inappropriate hospital use, attention should be particularly paid on patients with cognitive impairment.

Care needs and point prevalence of post-acute patients in the acute medical wards of an Italian hospital

BACKGROUND

Despite considerable literature identifying large numbers of post-acute patients in acute medical wards, their needs have not been clearly described. Such information is required to plan alternative services.

OBJECTIVE

Identify the size of and care needs of the post-acute population within the group of patients receiving acute medical care in an Italian General Hospital.

SETTING

Five medical wards of a District General Hospital in Northern Italy.

DESIGN

Point prevalence survey. Data were collected on all 211 patients using the most recent Italian version of the Appropriateness Evaluation protocol, Barthel Index, and the Northwick Park Dependency Score. Length of stay up to the data collection (index) day and total length of stay were identified and pre- and post-discharge dependence was assessed.

RESULTS

The mean of the length of stay of the patients up to the index day was 12 days. Fourty four percent of patients were assessed as inappropriate. The mean age was 70 years. They were moderately physically dependent and stayed in hospital for a further 8 days after the day of the survey. The family met most of the care needs both before and after admission to hospital. Inappropriate patients differed little from the appropriate patients in terms of their care needs, which were relatively high.

CONCLUSION

There is scope for the development of alternatives to acute care in the Italian health service but the intensity on non-medical care needs is not discernibly lower than for acute care. Prospective identification of patients who might require such services using tools that focus on needs other than medical needs remains problematic.

Impact of physician training level on emergency readmission within internal medicine

Objectives: The research question was whether training level of admitting physicians and referrals from practitioners in primary health care (PHC) are risk factors for emergency readmission within 30 days to internal medicine.

Methods: This report is a prospective multicenter study carried out during 1 month in 1997 in seven departments of internal medicine in the County of Stockholm, Sweden. Two of the units were at university hospitals, three at county hospitals and two in district hospitals. The study area is metropolitan–suburban with 1,762,924 residents. Data were analyzed by multiple logistic regression.

Results: A total of 5,131 admissions, thereby 408 unplanned readmissions (8 percent) were registered (69.8 percent of 7,348 true inpatient episodes). The risk of emergency readmission increased with patient's age and independently 1.40 times (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 1.13–1.74) when residents decided on hospitalization. Congestive heart failure as primary or comorbid condition was the main reason for unplanned readmission. Referrals from PHC were associated with risk decrease (odds ratio, 0.53; 95 percent CI, 0.38–0.73).

Conclusion: The causes of unplanned hospital readmissions are mixed. Patient contact with primary health care appears to reduce the recurrence. In addition to the diagnoses of cardiac failure, training level of admitting physicians in emergency departments was an independent risk factor for early readmission. Our conclusion is that it is cost-effective to have all decisions on admission to hospital care confirmed by senior doctors. Inappropriate selection of patients to inpatient care contributes to poor patient outcomes and reduces cost-effectiveness and quality of care.

Prediction of five-year survival for patients admitted to a department of internal medicine

OBJECTIVE

The effect of many common forms of therapy, as medication for mild hypertension or hypercholesterolaemia, only reaches clinical significance after years of treatment. The meaningful application of such therapy presupposes that physicians can, at least to some extent, predict the remaining lifetime of patients. We investigated whether clinicians from different disciplines were able to predict the 5-year survival of patients admitted to a department of internal medicine.

DESIGN

The members of two groups, each consisting of an internist, a surgeon and a general practitioner, made individual predictions of the expected remaining lifetime of discharged patients from written summaries of clinical information. Each patient was randomized to be assessed by the members of either of the two groups. The predictions were compared with actual 5-year survival.

SETTING

Department of internal medicine at a university hospital.

SUBJECTS

Patients admitted consecutively during a 6-week period.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for predictions of 5-year survival for each of the six experts.

RESULTS

A total of 402 patients were included. Five-year survival was 0.63. The sensitivity of the predictions ranged from 0.81 to 0.95, the specificity from 0.61 to 0.77, the positive predictive value from 0.78 to 0.87 and the negative predictive value from 0.68 to 0.87. The areas under the ROC curves ranged from 0.84 to 0.91.

CONCLUSION

The quality of predictions of 5-year survival made by experienced clinicians should permit the rational use of treatments with long-term effects.

The implications of plan design options for Medicare beneficiaries

To make an informed selection between traditional Medicare and a Medicare managed care plan, a consumer needs to understand the implications of choosing one over the other. What are the implications of plan design for care, cost, and patient autonomy? Consumers need information about these questions. However, a barrier to developing this consumer information is the lack of a consistent body of evidence. An intermediate step is to tap expert knowledge. The purpose of this study is to use expert consensus (across a spectrum of health care experts) to identify the implications of plan design. Experts were surveyed and the degree to which there is consensus provides an initial picture of what experts judge to be important to the consumer. The findings show that experts agree on several implications associated with choosing managed care over the traditional Medicare plan. They also agree that many of these attributes vary considerably across health plans.