Patterns and effects of gene flow on adaptation across spatial scales: implications for management

Gene flow can have rapid effects on adaptation and is an important evolutionary tool available when undertaking biological conservation and restoration. This tool is underused partly because of the perceived risk of outbreeding depression and loss of mean fitness when different populations are crossed. In this article, we briefly review some theory and empirical findings on how genetic variation is distributed across species ranges, describe known patterns of gene flow in nature with respect to environmental gradients, and highlight the effects of gene flow on adaptation in small or stressed populations in challenging environments (e.g., at species range limits). We then present a case study involving crosses at varying spatial scales among mountain populations of a trigger plant (Stylidium armeria: Stylidiaceae) in the Australian Alps to highlight how some issues around gene flow effects can be evaluated. We found evidence of outbreeding depression in seed production at greater geographic distances. Nevertheless, we found no evidence of maladaptive gene flow effects in likelihood of germination, plant performance (size), and performance variance, suggesting that gene flow at all spatial scales produces offspring with high adaptive potential. This case study demonstrates a path to evaluating how increasing sources of gene flow in managed wild and restored populations could identify some offspring with high fitness that could bolster the ability of populations to adapt to future environmental changes. We suggest further ways in which managers and researchers can act to understand and consider adaptive gene flow in natural and conservation contexts under rapidly changing conditions.

Hot climate, hot koalas: the role of weather, behaviour and disease on thermoregulation

Thermoregulation is critical for endotherms living in hot, dry conditions, and maintaining optimal core body temperature (Tb) in a changing climate is an increasingly challenging task for mammals. Koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) have evolved physiological and behavioural strategies to maintain homeostasis and regulate their Tb but are thought to be vulnerable to prolonged heat. We investigated how weather, behaviour and disease influence Tb for wild, free-living koalas during summer in north-west New South Wales. We matched Tb with daily behavioural observations in an ageing population where chlamydial disease is prevalent. Each individual koala had similar Tb rhythms (average Tb = 36.4 ± 0.05°C), but male koalas had higher Tb amplitude and more pronounced daily rhythm than females. Disease disrupted the 24-hr circadian pattern of Tb. Koala Tb increased with ambient temperature (Ta). On the hottest day of the study (maximum Ta = 40.8°C), we recorded the highest (Tb = 40.8°C) but also the lowest (Tb = 32.4°C) Tb ever documented for wild koalas, suggesting that they are more heterothermic than previously recognized. This requires individuals to predict days of extreme Ta from overnight and early morning conditions, adjusting Tb regulation accordingly, and it has never been reported before for koalas. The large diel amplitude and low minimum Tb observed suggest that koalas at our study site are energetically and nutritionally compromised, likely due to their age. Behaviour (i.e. tree hugging and drinking water) was not effective in moderating Tb. These results indicate that Ta and koala Tb are strongly interconnected and reinforce the importance of climate projections for predicting the future persistence of koalas throughout their current distribution. Global climate models forecast that dry, hot weather will continue to escalate and drought events will increase in frequency, duration and severity. This is likely to push koalas and other arboreal folivores towards their thermal limit.

Warmer ambient temperatures reduce protein intake by a mammalian folivore

The interplay between ambient temperature and nutrition in wild herbivores is frequently overlooked, despite the fundamental importance of food. We tested whether different ambient temperatures (10°C, 18°C and 26°C) influenced the intake of protein by a marsupial herbivore, the common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula). At each temperature, possums were offered a choice of two foods containing different amounts of protein (57% versus 8%) for one week. Animals mixed a diet with a lower proportion of protein to non-protein (P : NP, 0.20) when held at 26°C compared to that at both 10°C and 18°C (0.22). Since detoxification of plant secondary metabolites imposes a protein cost on animals, we then studied whether addition of the monoterpene 1,8-cineole to the food changed the effect of ambient temperature (10°C and 26°C) on food choice. Cineole reduced food intake but also removed the effect of temperature on P : NP ratio and instead animals opted for a diet with higher P : NP (0.19 with cineole versus 0.15 without cineole). These experiments show the proportion of P : NP chosen by animals is influenced by ambient temperature and by plant secondary metabolites. Protein is critical for reproductive success in this species and reduced protein intake caused by high ambient temperatures may limit the viability of some populations in the future. This article is part of the theme issue 'Food processing and nutritional assimilation in animals'.

Diet Mixing and Supplementation Present an Opportunity to Increase the Use of Encroaching Woody Plants by Goats

Along with the woody plant expansion that is predicted to continue at the expense of the grassy layer is the increasing societal demand for animal protein and livestock products. Unless concerted efforts by land users, ecologists, and animal scientists are made to increase the utilization of trees and shrubs as forage, it will be impossible to meet future demand for meat and meat products. We conducted two short-term pen experiments to determine the effects of (1) supplementation with polyethylene glycol (PEG-a polymer purported to bind and neutralize the negative effects of tannins), a high-protein source (soybean meal), and a high-energy source (yellow maize grain) and (2) diet mixing (single-species vs. multispecies diets) on the intake of condensed tannin-rich woody plants (i.e., Searsia lancea, S. pyroides, and Euclea crispa) by goats. While all three forage species were used in the diet mixing experiment (Exp. 2), only E. crispa was used in the supplementation experiment (Exp. 1). Supplementing goats with energy- and protein-rich sources significantly increased the intake of E. crispa (p < 0.05), 713.4 g ± 13.5 and 760 g ± 28.9, respectively, whereas those on the control diet maintained their intake at 540.32 g ± 11.2. Although PEG tended to increase the consumption of E. crispa by goats, the observed increase was not significant (p > 0.05) from that observed in other treatments. In the diet mixing experiment, goats offered a combination of all three forage species attained substantially higher dry matter intakes compared to the goats offered these species individually (p < 0.05). While longer-term field experiments are needed in the African savannas, we postulate from the current results that management strategies that provide animals with (1) a variety of species in the diet vs. monocultures and (2) a combination of nutrient-rich and tannin-rich species may improve the ability of goats to consume chemically defended woody plants.

The influence of climate change on mental health in populations of the western Pacific region: An umbrella scoping review

The Western Pacific Region (WPR) is on the front line of climate change challenges. Understanding how these challenges affect the WPR populations' mental health is essential to design effective prevention and care policies. Thus, the present study conducted an umbrella scoping review that examined the influence of climate change on mental health in the WPR, using review articles as a source of information. Ten review articles were selected according to eligibility criteria, and the findings were synthesized according to the socio-economic status of the countries identified: Australia, the Republic of Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam, the Pacific Islands (broadly), and China. The findings revealed that each country and sub-region has its own unique profile of climate change-related challenges and vulnerable populations, highlighting the need for specific approaches to mental health care. Specifically, the influence of climate-related challenges differed according to populations' region (e.g., rural populations), demographic characteristics (e.g., age and gender), culture (e.g., traditional tights to land), and employment (e.g., farmers and fishers). The most frequently reported mental health outcomes in response to climate change-related challenges such as droughts, floods, storms, tornadoes, typhoons, and climate-related migration were the decline in mental well-being and the increase in post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms. In addition, using the GRADE framework for assessing the certainty of the findings, we identified that the number of articles discussing associations between a given climate change challenge and a mental health outcome was overall limited. Based on our findings and findings on a global scale, we identified several key research gaps in WPR and provided recommendations for future research and policy strategies.

Variation in Vegetation Phenology and Its Response to Climate Change in Marshes of Inner Mongolian

Inner Mongolia has a large area of marsh wetland in China, and the marsh in this region is important for maintaining ecological balance. Understanding variations in vegetation phenology of marsh ecosystems and their responses to climatic change is crucial for vegetation conservation of marsh wetlands in Inner Mongolia. Using the climate and NDVI data during 2001-2020, we explored the spatiotemporal changes in the start (SOS), end (EOS), and length (LOS) of vegetation growing season and analyzed the effects of climate change on vegetation phenology in the Inner Mongolia marshes. Results showed that SOS significantly (p < 0.05) advanced by 0.50 days/year, EOS significantly delayed by 0.38 days/year, and thus LOS considerably increased by 0.88 days/year during 2001-2020 in marshes of Inner Mongolia. Warming temperatures in winter and spring could significantly (p < 0.05) advance the SOS, and increased summer and autumn temperatures could delay EOS in Inner Mongolia marshes. We found for the first time that daytime maximum temperature (T_max) and night minimum temperature (T_min) had asymmetric effects on marsh vegetation phenology. Increasing T_max had a stronger advancing effect on SOS than increasing T_min from December to April. The increase of T_min in August could obviously delayed EOS, while increasing T_max in August had no significant effect on EOS. This study highlights that the asymmetric influences of nighttime and daytime temperatures should be taken into account in simulating marsh vegetation phenology in temperate arid and semi-arid regions worldwide, particularly in the context of global asymmetric diurnal warming.

Individual and combined impacts of urbanization and climate change on catchment runoff in Southeast Queensland, Australia

Assessing the impacts of climate change and land-use change is of critical importance, particularly for urbanized catchments. In this study, a novel framework was used to examine and quantify these impacts on the runoff in six catchments in Southeast Queensland, Australia. For each catchment, temporal variations in impervious areas were derived from six satellite images using a sub-pixel classification technique and incorporated into the SIMHYD hydrological model. This model was satisfactorily calibrated and validated with daily runoff observations (0.63 ≤ Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient ≤ 0.94, percent bias ≤ ±18 %) and was used to produce baseline runoff for 1986-2005 in these six catchments. The projected population increase was used to predict future imperviousness based on the linear relationship between the two. The projected rainfall and evapotranspiration were derived from the ensemble means of the eight general circulation models. Catchment runoff was projected under two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5), three urbanization scenarios (low, medium, and high), and six combined scenarios for two future periods (2026-2045 and 2046-2065). Comparing with the baseline, it was found that (1) climate change alone would lead to a -3.8 % to -17.6 % reduction in runoff among the six catchments, for all scenarios and both future periods; (2) a 11.8 % to 78 % increase in runoff was projected under the three urbanization scenarios, and (3) a decrease in runoff due to climate change would moderate the increase in runoff caused by urbanization. For example, the combined effect would be a 54 % increase in runoff, with a -17.2 % decrease due to climate change and 78 % increase due to urbanization. Overall, runoff in the six catchments may be significantly affected by urban expansion. From this study, decision makers could gain a better understanding of the relative importance of the effects of climate and land-use change, which can be applied when developing future long-term water management plans at the catchment scale.

Citizen science and expert opinion working together to understand the impacts of climate change

In the absence of historical information on phenology available in Australia, expert opinion was used for selecting indicator species that would be suitable for monitoring phenology on a continental scale as part of ClimateWatch—a citizen science program. Jacaranda mimosifolia being the most frequently observed species was used in this study to test expert opinion and the adequacy of citizen science records in detecting the influence of climatic conditions on this species’ flowering phenology. Generalised Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape were used to explore the occurrence and intensity of flowering of Jacaranda in relation to rainfall, temperature, and sun exposure. Jacaranda flowering onset was influenced by winter cold exposure, while flowering intensity was related to increasing sun exposure as spring progresses, and both were influenced by the conditions for flowering in the former flowering seasons (i.e., sun exposure and highest temperatures reached, respectively). Our models provide the first attempt to describe the climate drivers for Jacaranda mimosifolia flowering in the southern hemisphere and identify where climatic changes will most likely alter this tree’s phenology in Australia and benefit or challenge its reproductive ability. They also support the choice of species for citizen science programs based on expert opinion.

Re-evaluating model assumptions suggests that Australian birds are more tolerant of heat and aridity than predicted: a response to Conradie et al. (2020)

Conradie et al. (2020) recently modelled the vulnerability of Australian arid birds to a changing climate. While the approach used by Conradie et al. (2020) is valuable, we argue that key assumptions in their study are poorly supported and the risks of a changing climate to arid zone avifauna are consequently overstated.

The occurrence of Anisakis spp. in Australian waters: past, present, and future trends

As one of the world's megadiverse countries, Australian biodiversity is vital for global biodiversity. Nematodes belonging to the genus Anisakis (family Anisakidae) are an important part of this biodiversity due to their ability to be repeatedly transmitted among their intermediate hosts before reaching the top of the food pyramid. Therefore, they have a significant impact on the community structures of various ecosystems. In addition, globally, they are known to be of medical and veterinary significance. The aim of this article is to provide an update on the current knowledge about these important parasites in Australia. Since 1916, a total of 234 records of Anisakis spp. from various hosts and localities have been found in Australia. It is estimated that the occurrence of Anisakis spp. and their health impacts in at least 84, 98.5, and 95% of Australian marine mammals, fish, and water birds, respectively, have not been documented yet. The results of this study suggest Australia is perhaps home to the most diverse Anisakis fauna. Available information is dominated by reports of these parasites in fish hosts, many of them among edible fish. Given the popularity of seafood in Australia and the occurrence of infectious stages of Anisakis spp. in edible fish, all stakeholders should be made aware of the occurrence, prevalence, and survival of Anisakis spp. in seafood. Also, as more pet owners feed their pets with a variety of fish and seafood products, it is important for veterinarians to be aware of seafood transmitted Anisakis spp. in pet animals. This study also highlights several important knowledge gaps: (i) The detailed life cycle of Anisakis spp. in Australia is not known. Detecting their first intermediate hosts is important for better management of crustacean zooplankton populations in our waters. (ii) Research on Anisakis spp. in Australia has been restricted to limited taxonomical studies and should extend to other aspects of these important parasites. (iii) The capacity to identify parasite taxa to species is especially important for resolving biological diversity around Australia; however, opportunities to formally train in parasite taxonomy are rare and diminishing. There is a need to train researchers with taxonomy skills. (iv) Given the vast range of biodiversity in Australia and the broad host-specificity of Anisakis spp., particularly in the larval stages, the full range of their intermediate hosts remains unknown. (v) The health impacts of the infection of the intermediate/definitive hosts with Anisakis spp. are not fully understood. Thus, one of the important areas for future studies is investigating the pathogenicity of Anisakis spp. in affected animals. This is a crucial yet unknown factor for the conservation of some endangered species in Australia.

Rapid population increase of the threatened Australian amphibian Litoria aurea in response to wetlands constructed as a refuge from chytrid-induced disease and introduced fish

Amphibians have declined due to multiple impacts including invasive fish and the disease chytridiomycosis caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Wetland restoration can be used to increase amphibian populations. However the design of created wetlands must account for threats such as Bd and introduced fish. There have been no attempts on a landscape level to manage these threats with habitat design. Here we monitored the green and golden bell frog (Litoria aurea) in 2.6 ha of constructed wetlands designed to enhance breeding and increase survival through passive mitigation of Bd and exotic fish. We compared the fecundity, adult population sizes, introduced fish occupancy, Bd prevalence and survival rates of frogs in created wetlands (CW) to three control sites to determine if and why the habitat design was successful. Monitoring involved weekly capture-recapture during the austral spring and summer for three L. aurea breeding seasons. We hypothesised that (1) if the CWs were successful in passively limiting fish colonisation, a larger number of breeding events would be detected compared to control sites which are known to be widely colonised by introduced fish. (2) If the wetlands were successful in passively mitigating Bd, then we would observe an equal or greater survival rate and equal to or lower Bd prevalence compared to control wetlands. We observed a 3.3-fold increase in adult population size in CW from season 1 to 2, and the population increased further in season 3.We found strong support for hypothesis (1) and weak support for (2). Based on these results, we conclude that this design was beneficial shortly after their formation primarily due to fish exclusion, but further study is required to determine if these benefits extend long-term. Future amphibian restoration studies are needed to improve the design of wetlands to enhance suppression of Bd.

Genomic Approaches for Conservation Management in Australia under Climate Change

Conservation genetics has informed threatened species management for several decades. With the advent of advanced DNA sequencing technologies in recent years, it is now possible to monitor and manage threatened populations with even greater precision. Climate change presents a number of threats and challenges, but new genomics data and analytical approaches provide opportunities to identify critical evolutionary processes of relevance to genetic management under climate change. Here, we discuss the applications of such approaches for threatened species management in Australia in the context of climate change, identifying methods of facilitating viability and resilience in the face of extreme environmental stress. Using genomic approaches, conservation management practices such as translocation, targeted gene flow, and gene-editing can now be performed with the express intention of facilitating adaptation to current and projected climate change scenarios in vulnerable species, thus reducing extinction risk and ensuring the protection of our unique biodiversity for future generations. We discuss the current barriers to implementing conservation genomic projects and the efforts being made to overcome them, including communication between researchers and managers to improve the relevance and applicability of genomic studies. We present novel approaches for facilitating adaptive capacity and accelerating natural selection in species to encourage resilience in the face of climate change.

Species on the move around the Australian coastline: A continental-scale review of climate-driven species redistribution in marine systems

Climate-driven changes in the distribution of species are a pervasive and accelerating impact of climate change, and despite increasing research effort in this rapidly emerging field, much remains unknown or poorly understood. We lack a holistic understanding of patterns and processes at local, regional and global scales, with detailed explorations of range shifts in the southern hemisphere particularly under-represented. Australian waters encompass the world's third largest marine jurisdiction, extending from tropical to sub-Antarctic climate zones, and have waters warming at rates twice the global average in the north and two to four times in the south. Here, we report the results of a multi-taxon continent-wide review describing observed and predicted species redistribution around the Australian coastline, and highlight critical gaps in knowledge impeding our understanding of, and response to, these considerable changes. Since range shifts were first reported in the region in 2003, 198 species from nine Phyla have been documented shifting their distribution, 87.3% of which are shifting poleward. However, there is little standardization of methods or metrics reported in observed or predicted shifts, and both are hindered by a lack of baseline data. Our results demonstrate the importance of historical data sets and underwater visual surveys, and also highlight that approximately one-fifth of studies incorporated citizen science. These findings emphasize the important role the public has had, and can continue to play, in understanding the impact of climate change. Most documented shifts are of coastal fish species in sub-tropical and temperate systems, while tropical systems in general were poorly explored. Moreover, most distributional changes are only described at the poleward boundary, with few studies considering changes at the warmer, equatorward range limit. Through identifying knowledge gaps and research limitations, this review highlights future opportunities for strategic research effort to improve the representation of Australian marine species and systems in climate-impact research.

Diurnal sheltering preferences and associated conservation management for the endangered sandhill dunnart, Sminthopsis psammophila

Dasyurids are small mammals that can conserve energy and water by using shelters that insulate against extreme conditions, prevent predation, and facilitate torpor. To quantify the diurnal sheltering requirements of a poorly known, endangered dasyurid, the sandhill dunnart, Sminthopsis psammophila, we radiotracked 40 individuals in the Western Australian Great Victoria Desert between 2015 and 2019. We assessed the effect of habitat class (broad habitat features), plot-level (the area surrounding each shelter), and shelter characteristics (e.g., daily temperature ranges), on shelter selection and sheltering habitat preferences. Two hundred and eleven diurnal shelters (mean of 5 ± 3 shelters per individual) were located on 363 shelter days (the number of days each shelter was used), within mature vegetation (mean seral age of 32 ± 12 years postfire). Burrows were used on 77% of shelter days and were typically concealed under mature spinifex, Triodia spp., with stable temperature ranges and northern aspects facing the sun. While many burrows were reused (n = 40 across 175 shelter days), spinifex hummock shelters typically were used for one shelter day and were not insulative against extreme temperatures. However, shallow scrapes within Lepidobolus deserti hummock shelters had thermal advantages and log shelters retained heat and were selected on cooler days. Sminthopsis psammophila requires long-unburned sheltering habitat with mature vegetation. Summer fires in the Great Victoria Desert can be extensive and destroy large areas of land, rendering them a key threat to the species. We conclude that the survey and conservation of S. psammophila requires attention to long-unburned, dense lower stratum swale, sand plain, and dune slope habitats, and the tendency of S. psammophila to burrow allows the species to survive within the extreme conditions of its desert environment.

Drivers of distributions and niches of North American cold-adapted amphibians: evaluating both climate and land use

Species distribution estimates are often used to understand the niche of a species; however, these are often based solely on climatic predictors. When the influences of biotic factors are ignored, erroneous inferences about range and niche may be made. We aimed to integrate climate data with a unique set of available land cover and land use data for the six cold-adapted amphibians of North America (Ambystoma macrodactylum, Anaxyrus hemiophrys, Anaxyrus boreas, Pseudacris maculata, Rana sylvatica, Rana luteiventris) to determine the relative importance of climate and non-climate drivers through the use of ecological niche models for present-day range estimates. We compared climate-only, land use-only, and combination models of climate and land use, derived from two different model selection techniques, to determine which was most likely to drive current distributions of cold-adapted amphibian species. Land use layers included land cover type, human population, vegetation type, ecoregion, and the overall human footprint. The most supported models included both climate and land use, with climate and human footprint variables having the highest permutation importance and percent contribution. Models that incorporated climate and land use data performed best as measured with AIC and AUC, although qualitatively most underestimated the northern range edge, implying potential sampling bias or locations of reduced habitat quality for these species in the northern area of the ranges. There were small differences in overall combination models dependent on the method of model selection. The overall effect sizes of landscape factors within the combination models were small except for one landscape feature: human footprint, which incorporated multiple aspects of anthropogenic change on the landscape, including human population density, travel access, and agricultural impact. This aspect of the landscape was just as important as climate, and counter to what we expected, the association was mostly positive, with a negative response only occurring at very high levels. This highlights the importance of moving beyond climate only species range estimates as land cover, specifically human impact, may be driving the patterns of species' ranges.

Enterocytozoon bieneusi of animals-With an 'Australian twist'

Enterocytozoon bieneusi is a microsporidian microorganism that causes intestinal disease in animals including humans. E. bieneusi is an obligate intracellular pathogen, typically causing severe or chronic diarrhoea, malabsorption and/or wasting. Currently, E. bieneusi is recognised as a fungus, although its exact classification remains contentious. The transmission of E. bieneusi can occur from person to person and/or animals to people. Transmission is usually via the faecal-oral route through E. bieneusi spore-contaminated water, environment or food, or direct contact with infected individuals. Enterocytozoon bieneusi genotypes are usually identified and classified by PCR-based sequencing of the internal transcribed spacer region (ITS) of nuclear ribosomal DNA. To date, ~600 distinct genotypes of E. bieneusi have been recorded in ~170 species of animals, including various orders of mammals and reptiles as well as insects in >40 countries. Moreover, E. bieneusi has also been found in recreational water, irrigation water, and treated raw- and waste-waters. Although many studies have been conducted on the epidemiology of E. bieneusi, prevalence surveys of animals and humans are scant in some countries, such as Australia, and transmission routes of individual genotypes and related risk factors are poorly understood. This article/chapter reviews aspects of the taxonomy, biology and epidemiology of E. bieneusi; the diagnosis, treatment and prevention of microsporidiosis; critically appraises the naming system for E. bieneusi genotypes as well as the phylogenetic relationships of these genotypes; provides new insights into the prevalence and genetic composition of E. bieneusi populations in animals in parts of Australia using molecular epidemiological tools; and proposes some areas for future research in the E. bieneusi/microsporidiosis field.

A review of intervention methods used to reduce flying-fox mortalities in heat stress events

Heat stress events in Australian flying-fox camps have resulted in significant numbers of flying-fox deaths. The frequency and intensity of such events have increased in recent decades, attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Evidence-based interventions are required to address this growing threat. Responders currently use different combinations of a range of intervention methods. We undertook a systematic review of heat stress interventions, which we classified as either ‘camp-scale’ or ‘individual-scale’. Camp-scale interventions included manual and automated misting of roost vegetation, whereas individual-scale interventions included spraying individual animals or removing them for intensive cooling and rehydration procedures. Our study showed that to date, evaluation of the efficacy of heat stress interventions has been largely anecdotal rather than empirical. This highlights the need for dedicated rigorous studies to evaluate the effectiveness of all the intervention methods described here. It will be especially important to understand the relationship between camp temperature and humidity levels and their influence on flying-foxes’ ability to regulate their body temperature, because high relative humidity reduces the ability of mammals to cool themselves using evaporative heat loss. The development of biophysiological measures such as temperature and humidity indices for different flying-fox species would enable meaningful interpretations of intervention trials under controlled conditions.

How much survey effort is required to assess bird assemblages in fire-prone eucalypt forests using acoustic recorders?

Abstract ContextForest fire activity is expected to increase in many parts of the globe over the course of the 21st century, with corresponding potential for heightened levels of proximate and ultimate threats to avian diversity. Landscape-scale investigations of the responses of birds in locations where current extreme fire regimes represent those expected in the future provide opportunities to identify potentially vulnerable species in advance. Autonomous acoustic recorders are well suited to survey birds in the typically large and remote natural areas with low accessibility required for these types of studies, because they offer cost-effective and relatively safe options for obtaining reliable data. AimsThe present study aimed to optimise survey using acoustic recorders to achieve a satisfactory assessment of montane dry sclerophyll forest bird assemblages using these devices. Survey completeness, or the number of species detected as a percentage of total species, was used as a metric to gauge survey suitability. MethodsAcoustic recorders were deployed in 10 ridge-top forest sites in the Blue Mountains, south-eastern Australia. Extensive field recordings were processed by an analyst, with species detected by their calls recorded in a series of 20-min samples. A results-based approach, incorporating a stopping rule that established when to conclude sampling at a site, was applied to the data. The results guided the target survey completeness and sampling effort levels assigned to a set of fixed-effort survey methods, which were subsequently evaluated. Key resultsThe optimal survey method involved using recordings from five 20-min sampling periods immediately following dawn for 2 days, achieving an average survey completeness level of 69%. ConclusionsThe optimal survey method can obtain results that are suitable for many types of studies involving assessments of bird assemblages, because the method can detect all common and moderately common species in assemblages, plus a fair proportion of rare species. ImplicationsThe present study has systematically developed an effective method of using autonomous acoustic recorders to research and monitor montane bird assemblages in fire-prone dry sclerophyll forests. This methodological approach may also be applied in systems subject to altered patterns of flood, storm or other extreme weather under climate change.

Carbon, Nitrogen, and Sulfur Elemental Fluxes in the Soil and Exchanges with the Atmosphere in Australian Tropical, Temperate, and Arid Wetlands

Australian ecosystems, particularly wetlands, are facing new and extreme threats due to climate change, land use, and other human interventions. However, more fundamental knowledge is required to understand how nutrient turnover in wetlands is affected. In this study, we deployed a mechanistic biogeochemical model of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and sulfur (S) cycles at 0.25∘× 0.25∘ spatial resolution across wetlands in Australia. Our modeling was used to assess nutrient inputs to soil, elemental nutrient fluxes across the soil organic and mineral pools, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in different climatic areas. In the decade 2008–2017, we estimated an average annual emission of 5.12 Tg-CH4, 90.89 Tg-CO2, and 2.34 × 10−2 Tg-N2O. Temperate wetlands in Australia have three times more N2O emissions than tropical wetlands as a result of fertilization, despite similar total area extension. Tasmania wetlands have the highest areal GHG emission rates. C fluxes in soil depend strongly on hydroclimatic factors; they are mainly controlled by anaerobic respiration in temperate and tropical regions and by aerobic respiration in arid regions. In contrast, N and S fluxes are mostly governed by plant uptake regardless of the region and season. The new knowledge from this study may help design conservation and adaptation plans to climate change and better protect the Australian wetland ecosystem.

Alpine vegetation in the context of climate change: A global review of past research and future directions

Climate change is causing extensive alterations to ecosystems globally, with some more vulnerable than others. Alpine ecosystems, characterised by low-temperatures and cryophilic vegetation, provide ecosystems services for billions of people but are considered among the most susceptible to climate change. Therefore, it is timely to review research on climate change on alpine vegetation including assessing trends, topics, themes and gaps. Using a multicomponent bibliometric approach, we extracted bibliometric metadata from 3143 publications identified by searching titles, keywords and abstracts for research on 'climate change' and 'alpine vegetation' from Scopus and Web of Science. While primarily focusing on 'alpine vegetation', some literature that also assessed vegetation below the treeline was captured. There has been an exponential increase in research over 50 years, greater engagement and diversification in who does research, and where it is published and conducted, with increasing focus beyond Europe, particularly in China. Content analysis of titles, keywords and abstracts revealed that most of the research has focused on alpine grasslands but there have been relatively few publications that examine specialist vegetation communities such as snowbeds, subnival vegetation and fellfields. Important themes emerged from analysis of keywords, including treelines and vegetation dynamics, biodiversity, the Tibetan Plateau as well as grasslands and meadows. Traditional ecological monitoring techniques were important early on, but remote sensing has become the primary method for assessment. A key book on alpine plants, the IPCC reports and a few papers in leading journals underpin much of the research. Overall, research on this topic is increasing, with new methods and directions but thematic and geographical gaps remain particularly for research on extreme climatic events, and research in South America, in part due to limited capacity for research on these rare but valuable ecosystems.

A review of soil carbon dynamics resulting from agricultural practices

Literature related to the carbon cycle and climate contains contradictory results with regard to whether agricultural practices increase or mitigate emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs). One opinion is that anthropogenic activities have distinct carbon footprints - measured as total emissions of GHGs resulting from an activity, in this case, "agricultural operations". In contrast, it is argued that agriculture potentially serves to mitigate GHGs emissions when the best management practices are implemented. We review the literature on agricultural carbon footprints in the context of agricultural practices including soil, water and nutrient management. It has been reported that the management practices that enhance soil organic carbon (SOC) in arid and semi-arid areas include conversion of conventional tillage practices to conservation tillage approaches. We found that agricultural management in arid and semi-arid regions, which have specific characteristics related to high temperatures and low rainfall conditions, requires different practices for maintenance and restoration of SOC and for control of soil erosion compared to those used in Mediterranean, tropical regions. We recommend that in order to meet the global climate targets, quantification of net global warming potential of agricultural practices requires precise estimates of local, regional and global carbon budgets. We have conducted and present a case study for observing the development of deep soil carbon profile resulting from a 10-year wheat-cotton and wheat-maize rotation on semi-arid lands. Results showed that no tillage with mulch application had 14% (37.2 vs 43.3 Mg ha^-1) higher SOC stocks in comparison to conventional tillage with mulch application. By implementing no tillage in conjunction with mulch application, lower carbon losses from soil can mitigate the risks associated with global warming. Therefore, it is necessary to reconsider agricultural practices and soil erosion after a land-use change when calculating global carbon footprints.

Seed dormancy release of Halenia elliptica in response to stratification temperature, duration and soil moisture content

BACKGROUND

Although the effect of cold stratification on seed dormancy release has been extensively studied for many species, knowledge of the role of stratifying temperature, soil moisture content and duration of stratification on seed dormancy release at the population level is limited. Here, we aimed to determine the response of seed dormancy release to these factors in six populations of Halenia elliptica.

RESULTS

Seed dormancy release was more responsive to low than high temperatures, and no dormancy break occurred at 8 °C. Seed germination percentage increased first and then remained unchanged as stratifying soil moisture content increased from 0 to 24%. Seed dormancy release of populations from low altitude was more sensitive to increased stratifying temperature and decreased soil moisture content than those from high altitudes.

CONCLUSIONS

Temperature and soil moisture changes resulting from global warming could affect seed dormancy release and consequently seedling establishment. Thus, incorporating data on seed dormancy release involving temperature, soil moisture content and stratification duration is beneficial for predicting plant species regeneration, migration and coexistence in a scenario of climate change.

Salinity and temperature increase impact groundwater crustaceans

Anthropogenic impacts in groundwater ecosystems remain poorly known. Climate change is omnipresent, while groundwater salinization poses serious long-term environmental problems in arid and semi-arid regions, and is exacerbated by global warming. Both are present threats to the conservation of groundwater ecosystems, which harbour highly specialized species, with peculiar traits and limited geographic distributions. We tested the temperature and salinity tolerance of groundwater-adapted invertebrates to understand the effect of global warming and salinization in groundwater ecosystems. We used species representative of groundwater-adapted crustaceans: two copepods (harpacticoid and cyclopoid) and one syncarid, endemic to Australia. Our results show that 50% of the populations died at salt concentrations between 2.84 to 7.35 g NaCl/L after 96 h, and at 6.9 °C above the ambient aquifer temperature for copepods and more than 10 °C for syncarids. Both copepods were more sensitive to temperature and NaCl than the syncarid. We calculated a salinity risk quotient of 9.7 and predicted the risk of loss of 10% of syncarid and 20% of copepod population abundances under a worst-case scenario of global warming predictions for 2070. These results highlight that both salinity and temperature increases pose a risk to the ecological integrity of groundwater ecosystems.

Divergent field metabolic rates highlight the challenges of increasing temperatures and energy limitation in aquatic ectotherms

Environments where extreme temperatures and low productivity occur introduce energetically challenging circumstances that may be exacerbated by climate change. Despite the strong link between metabolism and temperature in ectotherms, there is a paucity of data regarding how the metabolic ecology of species affects growth and fitness under such circumstances. Here, we integrated data describing field metabolic rates and body condition of two sympatric species of ectotherms with divergent lifestyles, the benthic freshwater (or largetooth) sawfish (Pristis pristis) and the epipelagic bull shark (Carcharhinus leucas) occurring in the Fitzroy River, Western Australia, to test the implications of their differing metabolic ecologies for vulnerability to rising temperatures. Over a temperature range of 18-34 °C, sawfish had lower field metabolic rates (63-187 mg O₂ kg^-0.86 h^-1) and lower temperature sensitivity of metabolic rates [activation energy (E_A) = 0.35 eV] than bull sharks (187-506 mg O₂ kg^-0.86 h^-1; E_A = 0.48 eV). Both species lost body mass throughout the dry season, although bull sharks significantly more (0.17% mass loss day^-1) than sawfish (0.07% mass loss day^-1). Subsequent bioenergetics modelling showed that under future climate change scenarios, both species would reach potentially lethal levels of mass loss during dry season periods before the end of the century. These results suggest that ectotherms with low metabolic rates may be better suited to extreme environmental conditions, and that even small increases in temperature due to climate change could have substantial impacts on the ability of ectotherms to grow and survive in harsh conditions, including high temperatures and energy-limiting circumstances.

Analysis of Extreme Temperature Events over the Iberian Peninsula during the 21st Century Using Dynamic Climate Projections Chosen Using Max-Stable Processes

Due to climate change, the Iberian Peninsula is suffering an increasing trend of extreme temperature events. The main objective of this study is to analyse this trends in frequency, duration and intensity of warm events and heat waves. The datasets used are 14 different regionalized dynamic climate projections. We choose the projections that present a spatial dependence similar to that of observed data. The spatial dependence is calculated by adjusting the data to max-stable processes. The observed data belong to the SPAIN02 grid for the period 1961–2000. We apply the Mann-Kendall test and the Theil-Sen estimator to calculate model trends in the future period (2011–2099). We have studied future extreme temperature events using two different definitions. One varying the threshold for each period and the other keeping it constant. The results show that the variability of maximum temperatures is decreasing for the western region of the Peninsula, while the Mediterranean area will see an increase in this variability. There will be an increase in the frequency of warm events for the southwestern corner of the Peninsula. Also, maximum temperatures will be higher in this area at the end of the century. However, in the Mediterranean region the warm events will last longer. Heat waves will be more frequent throughout the territory and more lasting in the Mediterranean area. We also found that studying extreme events using a varying threshold allows these events to be studied from the point of view of the variability of maximum temperatures, while if the study is carried out maintaining the threshold constant the results will be more direct.

Biogeochemical Processes of C and N in the Soil of Mangrove Forest Ecosystems

The mangrove forest provides various ecosystem services in tropical and subtropical regions. Many of these services are driven by the biogeochemical cycles of C and N, and soil is the major reservoir for these chemical elements. These cycles may be influenced by the changing climate. The high plant biomass in mangrove forests makes these forests an important sink for blue C storage. However, anaerobic soil conditions may also turn mangrove forests into an environmentally detrimental producer of greenhouse gases (such as CH4 and N2O), especially as air temperatures increase. In addition, the changing environmental factors associated with climate change may also influence the N cycles and change the patterns of N2 fixation, dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium, and denitrification processes. This review summarizes the biogeochemical processes of C and N cycles in mangrove forest soils based on recently published studies, and how these processes may respond to climate change, with the aim of predicting the impacts of climate change on the mangrove forest ecosystem.

Identifying threshold responses of Australian dryland rivers to future hydroclimatic change

Rivers provide crucial ecosystem services in water-stressed drylands. Australian dryland rivers are geomorphologically diverse, ranging from through-going, single channels to discontinuous, multi-channelled systems, yet we have limited understanding of their sensitivity to future hydroclimatic changes. Here, we characterise for the first time the geomorphology of 29 dryland rivers with catchments across a humid to arid gradient covering >1,800,000 km² of continental eastern and central Australia. Statistical separation of five specific dominantly alluvial river types and quantification of their present-day catchment hydroclimates enables identification of potential thresholds of change. Projected aridity increases across eastern Australia by 2070 (RCP4.5) will result in ~80% of the dryland rivers crossing a threshold from one type to another, manifesting in major geomorphological changes. Dramatic cases will see currently through-going rivers (e.g. Murrumbidgee, Macintyre) experience step changes towards greater discontinuity, characterised by pronounced downstream declines in channel size and local termination. Expanding our approach to include other river styles (e.g. mixed bedrock-alluvial) would allow similar analyses of dryland rivers globally where hydroclimate is an important driver of change. Early identification of dryland river responses to future hydroclimatic change has far-reaching implications for the ~2 billion people that live in drylands and rely on riverine ecosystem services.

Climate Change as an Involuntary Exposure: A Comparative Risk Perception Study from Six Countries across the Global Development Gradient

Climate change has been referred to as an involuntary exposure, meaning people do not voluntarily put themselves at risk for climate-related ill health or reduced standard of living. The purpose of this study is to examine people’s risk perceptions and related beliefs regarding (1) the likelihood of different risks occurring at different times and places and (2) collective (government) responsibility and personal efficacy in dealing with climate change, as well as (3) explore the ways in which climate risk may be amplified when posed against individual health and well-being. Previous research on this topic has largely focused on one community or one nation state, and so a unique characteristic of this study is the comparison between six different city (country) sites by their development and national wealth. Here, we collected 401 surveys from Phoenix (USA), Brisbane (Australia), Wellington (New Zealand), Shanghai (China), Viti Levu (Fiji), and Mexico City (Mexico). Results suggest that the hyperopia effect characterized the sample from each study site but was more pronounced in developed sites, suggesting that the more developed sites employ a broader perspective when approaching ways to mitigate their risk against climate-related health and well-being impacts.

Persistence of the broad-toothed rat (Mastacomys fuscus) across Victoria is correlated with climate and elevation

Abstract ContextThe broad-toothed rat (Mastacomys fuscus; BTR) is distributed throughout south-eastern Australia, but its populations are restricted and dispersed. BTRs prefer cooler, wetter habitats and, as such, future climate change is projected to lead to further range reductions. However, recent changes in its distribution have not been well documented, and there is limited knowledge about the current occupancy and population size of the species in Victoria. AimsTo evaluate recent historical changes in the distribution of BTRs in Victoria, and to test whether changes in distribution are correlated with climate and elevation. MethodsWe obtained all documented records of BTRs in the state before 1990 and used field notes and verbal descriptions to geo-reference their historical localities. We then used a repeated sampling design to resurvey all historically occupied sites with a geographic coordinate uncertainty of 4km or less. We tested for the effects of climate and elevation on the persistence of BTRs. Key resultsWe detected BTRs at 32 of 68 historical sites surveyed. Consistent with climate model predictions, site persistence was more likely to occur at sites of higher elevation and precipitation and less likely to occur at sites with a higher temperature. Minimum temperature of the coldest month was the single best predictor of persistence. ConclusionsThese results demonstrated a substantial decline in the persistence of BTRs at historical sites across Victoria and provided a benchmark for future monitoring and management efforts. ImplicationsThe decline of BTRs from historically occupied sites across Victoria is consistent with their listing as endangered in the state, and climate correlations suggest further declines, with projected climate change compounding other threats to the species such as introduced predators, feral herbivores, fire and land use. However, the status of BTRs in Victoria and understanding of the threats to their persistence are based on sparse data, highlighting the critical need for more effective monitoring of the species.

Avian mortality risk during heat waves will increase greatly in arid Australia during the 21st century

Intense heat waves are occurring more frequently, with concomitant increases in the risk of catastrophic avian mortality events via lethal dehydration or hyperthermia. We quantified the risks of lethal hyperthermia and dehydration for 10 Australian arid-zone avifauna species during the 21st century, by synthesizing thermal physiology data on evaporative water losses and heat tolerance limits. We evaluated risks of lethal hyperthermia or exceedance of dehydration tolerance limits in the absence of drinking during the hottest part of the day under recent climatic conditions, compared to those predicted for the end of this century across Australia. Increases in mortality risk via lethal dehydration and hyperthermia vary among the species modelled here but will generally increase greatly, particularly in smaller species (~10-42 g) and those inhabiting the far western parts of the continent. By 2100 CE, zebra finches' potential exposure to acute lethal dehydration risk will reach ~ 100 d y^-1 in the far northwest of Australia and will exceed 20 d y^-1 over > 50% of this species' current range. Risks of dehydration and hyperthermia will remain much lower for large non-passerines such as crested pigeons. Risks of lethal hyperthermia will also increase substantially for smaller species, particularly if they are forced to visit exposed water sources at very high air temperatures to avoid dehydration. An analysis of atlas data for zebra finches suggests that population declines associated with very hot conditions are already occurring in the hottest areas. Our findings suggest that the likelihood of persistence within current species ranges, and the potential for range shifts, will become increasingly constrained by temperature and access to drinking water. Our model adds to an increasing body of literature suggesting that arid environments globally will experience considerable losses of avifauna and biodiversity under unmitigated climate change scenarios.

Pattern and Trend of Night Land Surface Temperature in Africa

This study aims to identify patterns and trends of the night land surface temperature over eight day period from 2000 to 2014 in Africa using statistical analysis. Data were obtained from the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration satellite, comprising 99 locations of 5° by 5° latitude and longitude grid-boxes between latitudes 35° north and south of the equator and longitudes 20° west to 50° east. First, the variation in the night surface temperatures was removed. Then, the trend of seasonally adjusted night temperatures was estimated using linear regression. The correlations between adjoining regions were considered by using factor analysis to classify the temperatures into four regions. Cubic spline models were fitted to the data within these regions to investigate patterns of the temperatures. The result showed that temperatures in most regions of Africa increased. The temperatures decreased was observed in southern Africa and parts of central and eastern Africa.

Detecting the impact of land cover change on observed rainfall

Analysis of observational data to pinpoint impact of land cover change on local rainfall is difficult due to multiple environmental factors that cannot be strictly controlled. In this study we use a statistical approach to identify the relationship between removal of tree cover and rainfall with data from best available sources for two large areas in Australia. Gridded rainfall data between 1979 and 2015 was used for the areas, while large scale (exogenous) effects were represented by mean rainfall across a much larger area and climatic indicators, such as Southern Oscillation Index and Indian Ocean Dipole. Both generalised additive modelling and step trend tests were used for the analysis. For a region in south central Queensland, the reported change in tree clearing between 2002-2005 did not result in strong statistically significant precipitation changes. On the other hand, results from a bushfire affected region on the border of New South Wales and Victoria suggest significant changes in the rainfall due to changes in tree cover. This indicates the method works better when an abrupt change in the data can be clearly identified. The results from the step trend test also mainly identified a positive relationship between the tree cover and the rainfall at p < 0.1 at the NSW/Victoria region. High rainfall variability and possible regrowth could have impacted the results in the Queensland region.

Genomic comparisons reveal biogeographic and anthropogenic impacts in the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus): a dietary-specialist species distributed across heterogeneous environments

The Australian koala is an iconic marsupial with highly specific dietary requirements distributed across heterogeneous environments, over a large geographic range. The distribution and genetic structure of koala populations has been heavily influenced by human actions, specifically habitat modification, hunting and translocation of koalas. There is currently limited information on population diversity and gene flow at a species-wide scale, or with consideration to the potential impacts of local adaptation. Using species-wide sampling across heterogeneous environments, and high-density genome-wide markers (SNPs and PAVs), we show that most koala populations display levels of diversity comparable to other outbred species, except for those populations impacted by population reductions. Genetic clustering analysis and phylogenetic reconstruction reveals a lack of support for current taxonomic classification of three koala subspecies, with only a single evolutionary significant unit supported. Furthermore, ~70% of genetic variance is accounted for at the individual level. The Sydney Basin region is highlighted as a unique reservoir of genetic diversity, having higher diversity levels (i.e., Blue Mountains region; AvHecorr=0.20, PL% = 68.6). Broad-scale population differentiation is primarily driven by an isolation by distance genetic structure model (49% of genetic variance), with clinal local adaptation corresponding to habitat bioregions. Signatures of selection were detected between bioregions, with no single region returning evidence of strong selection. The results of this study show that although the koala is widely considered to be a dietary-specialist species, this apparent specialisation has not limited the koala's ability to maintain gene flow and adapt across divergent environments as long as the required food source is available.

The importance of fire season when managing threatened plant species: A long-term case-study of a rare Leucopogon species (Ericaceae)

Implemented burns are a primary source of fire in natural systems and occur outside of the wildfire season. However, the impacts of fire season shift on native plant species are rarely studied. Understanding fire season effects are particularly important for managing threatened species, which are often the focus of managed burns. To assess the impacts of fire seasonality and identify potential limiting traits, I studied the threatened Leucopogon exolasius and two common congeners, all of which persist via fire-driven population dynamics. All species were monitored over a 16 year period to assess seedling survival, growth and primary juvenile period after fire. For L. exolasius and the common L. esquamatus, comparisons of survival, growth and maturation were made after winter and summer fires, to assess the effects of season of burn. A key difference was found in primary juvenile period, which was exceptionally long for L. exolasius (>11 years for 80% of the population to flower) compared to the common congeners (3.2-7.57 years). Seasonal seed dormancy mechanisms meant that winter fires delayed emergence, leading to increases in primary juvenile period for both species. A long primary juvenile period may limit L. exolasius population persistence because plants are more likely to be killed by subsequent fire before maturation, while seasonal dormancy cues is a trait that would exacerbate the effects of this interval squeeze. In fire-prone systems, fire frequency is the key factor assumed to drive persistence, however, interactions with fire season can influence recruitment success. There are scant data on recruitment variation in response to fire seasonality, a factor that may have broad implications for rare and common species with seasonal germination requirements.

The threats to Australia’s imperilled species and implications for a national conservation response

Since European occupation of Australia, human activities have caused the dramatic decline and sometimes extinction of many of the continent’s unique species. Here we provide a comprehensive review of threats to species listed as threatened under Australia’s Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999. Following accepted global categories of threat, we find that invasive species affect the largest number of listed species (1257 species, or 82% of all threatened species); ecosystem modifications (e.g. fire) (74% of listed species) and agricultural activity (57%) are also important. The ranking of threats was largely consistent across taxonomic groups and the degree of species’ endangerment. These results were significantly different (P&lt;0.01) from recent analyses of threats to threatened species globally, which highlighted overexploitation, agriculture and urban development as major causes of decline. Australia is distinct not only in the biodiversity it contains but also in the extent and mixture of processes that threaten the survival of these species. Notably, the IUCN threat classification scheme separates the numerous threats (e.g. urban development, agriculture, mining) that cause habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation, hence further research is required to quantify the net impact of these types of habitat change. We provide feasible suggestions for a more coordinated national approach to threatened species conservation, which could provide decision makers and managers at all levels with improved resources and information on threats and management. Adequate policy, legislative support and funding are critical for ensuring that on-ground management is successful in halting the decline of Australia’s threatened species.