A descriptive spatial analysis of bovine tuberculosis in intensively controlled cattle farms in New Zealand

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N8 in Poultry Farms, South Korea

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), a zoonotic disease, is a major threat to humans and poultry health worldwide. In January 2014, HPAI virus subtype H5N8 first infected poultry farms in South Korea, and 393 outbreaks, overall, were reported with enormous economic damage in the poultry industry. We analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution of HPAI H5N8 outbreaks in poultry farms using the global and local spatiotemporal interaction analyses in the first (January to July 2014) and second (September 2014 to June 2015) outbreak waves. The space–time K-function analyses revealed significant interactions within three days and in an over-40 km space–time window between the two study periods. The excess risk attributable value (D₀) was maintained despite the distance in the case of HPAI H5N8 in South Korea. Eleven spatiotemporal clusters were identified, and the results showed that the HPAI introduction was from the southwestern region, and spread to the middle region, in South Korea. This spatiotemporal interaction indicates that the HPAI epidemic in South Korea was mostly characterized by short period transmission, regardless of the distance. This finding supports strict control strategies such as preemptive depopulation, and poultry movement tracking. Further studies are needed to understand HPAI disease transmission patterns.

Spatio-temporal distribution of outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 in Vietnam, 2015- 2018

Despite strong commitments of the central and provincial veterinary authorities in Vietnam to control highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI-H5N1) in poultry and to diminish the risk of human infection, outbreaks continue to occur in poultry. This study describes the spatio-temporal distribution of HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks in Vietnam for the period December 2014-April 2018 using the space-time K-function and the space-time scan statistic. The space-time K-function analyses showed statistically significant spatio-temporal clustering of HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks in poultry during the study period of up to 50 days and 60 kilometres. The space-time scan statistic test identified three statistically significant space-time clusters of HPAI-H5N1 in the south of the country where the incidence of HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks was greater than that expected if outbreaks were randomly distributed in space and time. The analyses indicated shortfalls in the effectiveness of control measures used to control HPAI-H5N1 throughout the study period. Development of a better understanding of the relative impact of HPAI-H5N1 control measures (depopulation of infected flocks, vaccination, movement restrictions) on space-time interaction would allow animal health authorities to focus their efforts on control measures shown to have the greatest relative effect.

The spread of bovine tuberculosis in Canadian shared pastures: Data, model, and simulations

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis, is a chronic disease typical of cattle. Nonetheless, it can affect many mammals including humans, making it one of the most widespread zoonotic diseases worldwide. In industrialized countries, the main pathways of introduction of bTB into a herd are animal trade and contact with infected wildlife. In addition, for slow-spreading diseases with a long latent period such as bTB, shared seasonal pastures might be a between-herd transmission pathway, indeed farmers might unknowingly send infected animals to the pasture, since clinical signs are rarely evident in early infection. In this study, we developed a dynamic stochastic model to represent the spread of bTB in pastures. This was tailored to Canadian cow-calf herds, as we calibrated the model with data sourced from a recent bTB outbreak in Western Canada. We built a model for a herd with seasonal management, characterized by its partition into a group staying in the main facility and the remaining group(s) moving to summer pastures. We used this model to estimate the time of the first introduction of bTB into the herd. Furthermore, we expanded the model to include herds categorized as high-risk contacts with the index herd, in order to estimate the potential for disease spread on shared pastures. Finally, we explored two control scenarios to be applied to high-risk farms after the outbreak detection. Our results showed that the first introduction likely happened 3 to 5 years prior to the detection of the index herd, and the probability of bTB spreading in pastures was low, but not negligible. Nevertheless, the surveillance system currently in place was effective to detect potential outbreaks.

Spatio-temporal patterns of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N8 spread, France, 2016 to 2017

IntroductionFrance is one of Europe's foremost poultry producers and the world's fifth largest producer of poultry meat. In November 2016, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus subtype H5N8 emerged in poultry in the country. As of 23 March 2017, a total of 484 confirmed outbreaks were reported, with consequences on animal health and socio-economic impacts for producers. Methods: We examined the spatio-temporal distribution of outbreaks that occurred in France between November 2016 and March 2017, using the space-time K-function and space-time permutation model of the scan statistic test. Results: Most outbreaks affected duck flocks in south-west France. A significant space-time interaction of outbreaks was present at the beginning of the epidemic within a window of 8 km and 13 days. This interaction disappeared towards the epidemic end. Five spatio-temporal outbreak clusters were identified in the main poultry producing areas, moving sequentially from east to west. The average spread rate of the epidemic front wave was estimated to be 5.5 km/week. It increased from February 2017 and was negatively associated with the duck holding density. Conclusion: HPAI-H5N8 infections varied over time and space in France. Intense transmission events occurred at the early stages of the epidemic, followed by long-range jumps in the disease spread towards its end. Findings support strict control strategies in poultry production as well as the maintenance of high biosecurity standards for poultry holdings. Factors and mechanisms driving HPAI spread need to be further investigated.

Optimal surveillance strategies for bovine tuberculosis in a low-prevalence country

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic disease of cattle that is difficult to control and eradicate in part due to the costly nature of surveillance and poor sensitivity of diagnostic tests. Like many countries, bTB prevalence in Uruguay has gradually declined to low levels due to intensive surveillance and control efforts over the past decades. In low prevalence settings, broad-based surveillance strategies based on routine testing may not be the most cost-effective way for controlling between-farm bTB transmission, while targeted surveillance aimed at high-risk farms may be more efficient for this purpose. To investigate the efficacy of targeted surveillance, we developed an integrated within- and between-farm bTB transmission model utilizing data from Uruguay's comprehensive animal movement database. A genetic algorithm was used to fit uncertain parameter values, such as the animal-level sensitivity of skin testing and slaughter inspection, to observed bTB epidemiological data. Of ten alternative surveillance strategies evaluated, a strategy based on eliminating testing in low-risk farms resulted in a 40% reduction in sampling effort without increasing bTB incidence. These results can inform the design of more cost-effective surveillance programs to detect and control bTB in Uruguay and other countries with low bTB prevalence.

Statistical Exploration of Local Transmission Routes for African Swine Fever in Pigs in the Russian Federation, 2007-2014

African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating viral disease of swine that is present in both pigs and wild boar in the western part of the Russian Federation and the eastern part of the European Union. It represents a significant threat for the European pig production industry as neither treatment nor vaccine is available. This study analysed the spatial and spatio-temporal distributions of ASF cases that were reported in domestic pigs and wild boar for assessing the likelihood of wild boar-to-domestic pig and farm-to-farm transmission routes in the epidemic that occurred from 2007 to 2014 in the Krasnodar and the Tver regions, two of the most affected areas of the Russian Federation. Results suggest that in both regions, the spatial proximity to an infectious farm was a strong risk factor for infection of a susceptible farm. In the Krasnodar region, the results of the statistical analysis suggest that the epidemics in wild boar and in domestic pigs were independent from each other. In contrast, there seemed to be a dependence between the two epidemics in the Tver region. But because outbreaks in domestic pigs were not statistically significantly clustered around wild boar cases, the joint spatial distribution of wild boar cases and of outbreaks in domestic pigs in the Tver region may be explained by regular spillovers from the domestic pig to the wild boar population. These findings confirm the need to maintain high biosecurity standards on pig farms and justify strict control measures targeted at domestic pig production such as culling of infected herds and local movement restrictions.

Sources of spatial animal and human health data: Casting the net wide to deal more effectively with increasingly complex disease problems

During the last 30years it has become commonplace for epidemiological studies to collect locational attributes of disease data. Although this advancement was driven largely by the introduction of handheld global positioning systems (GPS), and more recently, smartphones and tablets with built-in GPS, the collection of georeferenced disease data has moved beyond the use of handheld GPS devices and there now exist numerous sources of crowdsourced georeferenced disease data such as that available from georeferencing of Google search queries or Twitter messages. In addition, cartography has moved beyond the realm of professionals to crowdsourced mapping projects that play a crucial role in disease control and surveillance of outbreaks such as the 2014 West Africa Ebola epidemic. This paper provides a comprehensive review of a range of innovative sources of spatial animal and human health data including data warehouses, mHealth, Google Earth, volunteered geographic information and mining of internet-based big data sources such as Google and Twitter. We discuss the advantages, limitations and applications of each, and highlight studies where they have been used effectively.

Epidemiological investigation of bovine tuberculosis herd breakdowns in Spain 2009/2011

We analyzed the most likely cause of 687 bovine tuberculosis (bTB) breakdowns detected in Spain between 2009 and 2011 (i.e., 22% of the total number of breakdowns detected during this period). Seven possible causes were considered: i) residual infection; ii) introduction of infected cattle from other herds; iii) sharing of pastures with infected herds; iv) contiguous spread from infected neighbor herds; v) presence of infected goats in the farm; vi) interaction with wildlife reservoirs and vii) contact with an infected human. For each possible cause a decision tree was developed and key questions were included in each of them. Answers to these key questions lead to different events within each decision tree. In order to assess the likelihood of occurrence of the different events a qualitative risk assessment approach was used. For this purpose, an expert opinion workshop was organized and ordinal values, ranging from 0 to 9 (i.e., null to very high likelihood of occurrence) were assigned. The analysis identified residual infection as the most frequent cause of bTB breakdowns (22.3%; 95%CI: 19.4–25.6), followed by interaction with wildlife reservoirs (13.1%; 95%CI: 10.8–15.8). The introduction of infected cattle, sharing of pastures and contiguous spread from infected neighbour herds were also identified as relevant causes. In 41.6% (95%CI: 38.0–45.4) of the breakdowns the origin of infection remained unknown.

Veterinary officers conducting bTB breakdown investigations have to state their opinion about the possible cause of each breakdown. Comparison between the results of our analysis and the opinion from veterinary officers revealed a slight concordance. This slight agreement might reflect a lack of harmonized criteria to assess the most likely cause of bTB breakdowns as well as different perceptions about the importance of the possible causes. This is especially relevant in the case of the role of wildlife reservoirs.

Mycobacterium bovis DNA detection in colostrum as a potential indicator of vaccination effectiveness against bovine tuberculosis

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) remains a problem on many dairy farms in Mexico, as well as a public health risk. We previously found a high frequency of Mycobacterium bovis DNA in colostrum from dairy cows using a nested PCR to detect mpb70. Since there are no reliable in vivo tests to determine the effectiveness of booster Mycobacterium bovis BCG vaccination against bTB, in this work we monitored M. bovis DNA in colostrum by using this nested PCR. In order to decrease the risk of adverse reactions in animals likely containing viable M. bovis, a single application of BCG and a subunit vaccine (EEP-1) formulated with M. bovis culture filtrate proteins (CFP) and a copolymer as the adjuvant was performed in tuberculin skin test-negative cattle (TST(-)), while TST reactor animals (TST(+)) received EEP-1 only. Booster immunization using EEP-1 was applied to both groups, 2 months after primary vaccination to whole herds and 12 months later to lactating cows. Colostrum samples were collected from 6 farms where the cows were vaccinated over a 12-month period postvaccination and, for comparison, from one control farm where the cows were not vaccinated with comparable bTB prevalence. We observed an inverse relationship between the frequency of M. bovis DNA detection and time postvaccination at the first (P < 0.001) and second (P < 0.0001) 6-month periods. Additionally, the concentration of gamma interferon (IFN-γ) was higher in mpb70 PCR-positive colostrum samples (P = 0.0003). These results suggest that M. bovis DNA frequency in colostrum could be a potentially useful biomarker for bTB vaccine efficacy on commercial dairy farms.

Prevalence and significant geospatial clusters of bovine tuberculosis infection at livestock-wildlife interface ecosystem in Eastern Tanzania

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is an important neglected zoonosis that affects livestock, wildlife and human. A study to determine prevalence and geospatial clusters for BTB was conducted from June 2010 to March 2012 at livestock-wildlife interface areas (LWIA). A total of 1,288 cattle located in vicinity of Mikumi-Selous ecosystem Tanzania were tested. Single Intradermal Comparative Tuberculin Test and spatial scan statistic analysis were applied to establish the status of the disease and identify significant spatial BTB clusters. Overall individual prevalence was 3.7 % (n=1,288) (95 % CI=2.8-4.9) and 7.8 % (95 % CI=6.4-9.4) with cut-off of >4 and >2 mm, respectively. Villages with at least one reactor were 55.8 % (n=43). Reactivity was significantly higher in Mvomero and Kilosa districts compared with Kilombero and Ulanga districts (χ (2) =15.9; P<0.001). Significant spatial BTB clusters were revealed at 11 villages. BTB clustering was significant in Kilosa and Mvomero districts compared with Kilombero and Ulanga districts. There was overlap and aggregation of BTB clusters covering south and south-east of Kilosa district bordering Mikumi National Park (MNP) and Mvomero. Generally, clustering occurred around major rivers. The current study provides useful information on the dynamics and epidemiological status of BTB around the wildlife-livestock-human interface, it reveals that the wildlife are at risk of BTB from infected livestock. The study revealed hotspots for BTB that can be applied to guide implementation of participatory intervention at LWIA and control strategies in marginalised pastoralist communities. This study calls for similar studies in other Tanzania's LWIA for efficient intervention of BTB countrywide.

Exploratory space-time analyses of Rift Valley Fever in South Africa in 2008-2011

BACKGROUND

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic arbovirosis for which the primary hosts are domestic livestock (cattle, sheep and goats). RVF was first described in South Africa in 1950-1951. Mechanisms for short and long distance transmission have been hypothesised, but there is little supporting evidence. Here we describe RVF occurrence and spatial distribution in South Africa in 2008-11, and investigate the presence of a contagious process in order to generate hypotheses on the different mechanisms of transmission.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A total of 658 cases were extracted from World Animal Health Information Database. Descriptive statistics, epidemic curves and maps were produced. The space-time K-function was used to test for evidence of space-time interaction. Five RVF outbreak waves (one in 2008, two in 2009, one in 2010 and one in 2011) of varying duration, location and size were reported. About 70% of cases (n = 471) occurred in 2010, when the epidemic was almost country-wide. No strong evidence of space-time interaction was found for 2008 or the second wave in 2009. In the first wave of 2009, a significant space-time interaction was detected for up to one month and over 40 km. In 2010 and 2011 a significant intense, short and localised space-time interaction (up to 3 days and 15 km) was detected, followed by one of lower intensity (up to 2 weeks and 35 to 90 km).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The description of the spatiotemporal patterns of RVF in South Africa between 2008 and 2011 supports the hypothesis that during an epidemic, disease spread may be supported by factors other than active vector dispersal. Limitations of under-reporting and space-time K-function properties are discussed. Further spatial analyses and data are required to explain factors and mechanisms driving RVF spread.

Bovine tuberculosis vaccine research: historical perspectives and recent advances

The emergence of wildlife reservoirs of Mycobacterium bovis infection in cattle as well as increased inter-regional trade with associated spread of M. bovis has led to renewed interest in the use of vaccines for the control of bovine tuberculosis (TB). Field efficacy trials performed in the early 20th century demonstrated the partial effectiveness of bacilli Calmette-Guerin (BCG) for the control of bovine TB. Recent experimental trials with cattle have demonstrated that: (1) subunit vaccines may boost immunity elicited by BCG in cattle, (2) T cell central memory immune responses evoked by protective vaccines correlate with protection upon subsequent M. bovis challenge, (3) BCG is particularly protective when administered to neonates, and (4) differentiation of infected from vaccinated animals (DIVA) is feasible in cattle using in vitro or in vivo methods. In regards to wildlife reservoirs, the efficacy of BCG delivered orally has been demonstrated for brushtail possums (in field trials) as well as Eurasian badgers, wild boar, and white-tailed deer (each in experimental challenge studies). Vaccine delivery to wildlife reservoirs will primarily be oral, although a parenteral route is being deployed for badgers in England. Vaccine efficacy trials, both experimental challenge and field studies, with cattle and their wildlife reservoirs represent a primary example of the one health approach, with outcomes relevant for both veterinary and medical applications.

Spatial clustering of TB-infected cattle herds prior to and following proactive badger removal

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) is primarily a disease of cattle. In both Ireland and the UK, badgers (Meles meles) are an important wildlife reservoir of infection. This paper examined the hypothesis that TB is spatially correlated in cattle herds, established the range of correlation and the effect, if any, of proactive badger removal on this. We also re-analysed data from the Four Area Project in Ireland, a large-scale intervention study aimed at assessing the effect of proactive badger culling on bovine TB incidence in cattle herds, taking possible spatial correlation into account. We established that infected herds are spatially correlated (the scale of spatial correlation is presented), but at a scale that varies with time and in different areas. Spatial correlation persists following proactive badger removal.

Animal-side serologic assay for rapid detection of Mycobacterium bovis infection in multiple species of free-ranging wildlife

Numerous species of mammals are susceptible to Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (TB). Several wildlife hosts have emerged as reservoirs of M. bovis infection for domestic livestock in different countries. In the present study, blood samples were collected from Eurasian badgers (n=1532), white-tailed deer (n=463), brushtail possums (n=129), and wild boar (n=177) for evaluation of antibody responses to M. bovis infection by a lateral-flow rapid test (RT) and multiantigen print immunoassay (MAPIA). Magnitude of the antibody responses and antigen recognition patterns varied among the animals as determined by MAPIA; however, MPB83 was the most commonly recognized antigen for each host studied. Other seroreactive antigens included ESAT-6, CFP10, and MPB70. The agreement of the RT with culture results varied from 74% for possums to 81% for badgers to 90% for wild boar to 97% for white-tailed deer. Small numbers of wild boar and deer exposed to M. avium infection or paratuberculosis, respectively, did not cross-react in the RT, supporting the high specificity of the assay. In deer, whole blood samples reacted similarly to corresponding serum specimens (97% concordance), demonstrating the potential for field application. As previously demonstrated for badgers and deer, antibody responses to M. bovis infection in wild boar were positively associated with advanced disease. Together, these findings suggest that a rapid TB assay such as the RT may provide a useful screening tool for certain wildlife species that may be implicated in the maintenance and transmission of M. bovis infection to domestic livestock.