Blood Pressure Before Initiation of Maintenance Dialysis and Subsequent Mortality

Anti-Tumor Necrosis Factor Therapy and Risk of Kidney Function Decline and Mortality in Inflammatory Bowel Disease

Importance

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is associated with adverse clinical outcomes, including chronic kidney disease and mortality, due in part to chronic inflammation. Little is known about the effects of anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy on kidney disease progression and mortality among patients with new-onset IBD.

Objective

To examine the association of incident use of TNF inhibitors with subsequent decline in kidney function and risk of all-cause mortality.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study used data from the US Department of Veterans Affairs health care system. Participants were US veterans with new-onset IBD enrolled from October 1, 2004, through September 30, 2019. Data were analyzed from December 2022 to February 2024.

Exposures

Incident use of TNF inhibitors.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes were at least 30% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and all-cause mortality.

Results

Among 10 689 patients (mean [SD] age, 67.4 [12.3] years; 9999 [93.5%] male) with incident IBD, 3353 (31.4%) had diabetes, the mean (SD) baseline eGFR was 77.2 (19.2) mL/min/1.73 m2, and 1515 (14.2%) were newly initiated on anti-TNF therapy. During a median (IQR) follow-up of 4.1 (1.9-7.0) years, 3367 patients experienced at least 30% decline in eGFR, and over a median (IQR) follow-up of 5.0 (2.5-8.0) years, 2502 patients died. After multivariable adjustments, incident use (vs nonuse) of TNF inhibitors was significantly associated with higher risk of decline in eGFR (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.34 [95% CI, 1.18-1.52]) but was not associated with risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.86-1.21]). Similar results were observed in sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of US veterans with incident IBD, incident use (vs nonuse) of TNF inhibitors was independently associated with higher risk of progressive eGFR decline but was not associated with risk of all-cause mortality. Further studies are needed to elucidate potentially distinct pathophysiologic contributions of TNF inhibitor use to kidney and nonkidney outcomes in patients with IBD.

Left atrial strain is associated with adverse cardiovascular events in patients with end-stage renal disease: Findings from the Cardiac, Endothelial Function and Arterial Stiffness in ESRD (CERES) study

Introduction

We lack cardiovascular (CV) markers for patients with end‐stage renal disease (ESRD), and left atrial (LA) strain has not been studied definitively in this population. We examined associations of LA reservoir, conduit, and booster strain with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) among stable patients with ESRD on dialysis.

Methods

One hundred and ninety patients in the Cardiac, Endothelial and Arterial Stiffness in ESRD study underwent echocardiography, including strain imaging. The primary outcome was 2‐year composite non‐fatal MACE or CV death. We performed Cox proportional hazards regression for LA strain measures, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, left ventricular global longitudinal strain (LV GLS), E/e′ and LA volume index.

Findings

Mean ± SD LA reservoir strain was 24.1 ± 7.0%, and LA conduit strain 11.9 ± 5.1%. In age‐adjusted analyses, lower LA reservoir strain and LA conduit strain were associated with the primary outcome (HR per 1‐SD worsening LA strain parameter = 1.57 [95% CI 1.2–2.1], p = 0.003 and 1.68 [95% CI 1.2–2.3], p = 0.002, respectively). After adjusting for comorbidities, LA reservoir strain remained associated with the primary outcome and with deaths alone, and LA conduit strain with the primary outcome and hospitalizations alone (p < 0.05 for all). Associations of LA conduit strain were independent of LV GLS. Associations were stronger in participants with serum albumin <3.6 mg/dl (p for interaction 0.008).

Discussion

Left atrial reservoir strain and conduit strain were independently associated with MACE among patients with ESRD. Our study provides unique ascertainment of CV hospitalizations not attributed to missed dialysis, and LA conduit strain was a strong marker for this outcome.

Association of dyskalemias with short-term health care utilization in patients with advanced CKD

BACKGROUND: Patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at high risk for dyskalemias, which may induce arrhythmias that require immediate emergent or hospital care. The association of dyskalemias with short-term hospital/emergency room (ER) visits in advanced CKD is understudied. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of dyskalemias with short-term hospital/ER visits in an advanced CKD population. METHODS: From among 102,477 US veterans transitioning to dialysis from 2007 to 2015, we identified 21,366 patients with 2 predialysis outpatient eGFR < 30 ml/min/1.73m2 90-365 days apart (with the second eGFR serving as the index date) and at least 1 potassium (K) in the baseline period (1 year before index) and 1 outpatient K (oK) in the follow-up (1 year after the index but before dialysis initiation). We examined the association of time-varying hypokalemia (K < 3.5 mEq/L) and hyperkalemia (K > 5.5 mEq/L) vs referent (3.5-5.5 mEq/L) with separate hospital and ER visits within 2 calendar days following each oK value over the 1-year follow-up period from the index. We used generalized estimating equations with binary distribution and logit link to model the exposure-outcome relationship adjusted for various confounders. We conducted various subgroup and sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of our results. RESULTS: Over the 1-year follow-up, 125,266 oK measurements were observed, of which 6.8% and 3.7% were classified as hyper- and hypokalemia, respectively. In the multivariable-adjusted model, hyperkalemia (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 2.04; 95% CI = 1.88-2.21) and hypokalemia (aOR = 1.66; 95% CI = 1.48-1.86) were associated with significantly higher odds of hospital visits. Similarly, hyperkalemia (aOR = 1.83; 95% CI = 1.65-2.03) and hypokalemia (aOR = 1.24; 95% CI = 1.07-1.44) were associated with significantly higher odds of ER visits. Results were robust to subgroups and sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with advanced CKD, dyskalemias are associated with higher risk of hospital/ER visits. Interventions targeted at lowering the risk of dyskalemias might help in reducing the health care utilization and associated economic burden among patients with advanced CKD experiencing dyskalemias. DISCLOSURES: This study was supported by grant 5U01DK102163 from the National Institute of Health (NIH) to Kamyar Kalantar-Zadeh and Csaba P. Kovesdy and by resources from the US Department of Veterans Affairs. The data reported here have been supplied in part by the United States Renal Data System (USRDS). Support for VA/CMS data were provided by the Department of Veterans Affairs, Veterans Health Administration, Office of Research and Development, Health Services Research and Development, VA Information Resource Center (project numbers SDR 02-237 and 98-004). Opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of the Department of Veterans Affairs or the funding institution. Kovesdy has received honoraria from Akebia, Ardelyx, Astra Zeneca, Bayer, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Cara Therapeutics, Reata, and Tricida unrelated to this study. Kalantar-Zadeh has received honoraria and/or support from Abbott, Abbvie, ACI Clinical (Cara Therapeutics), Akebia, Alexion, Amgen, American Society of Nephrology, Astra-Zeneca, Aveo, BBraun, Chugai, Cytokinetics, Daiichi, DaVita, Fresenius, Genentech, Haymarket Media, Hofstra Medical School, International Federation of Kidney Foundations, International Society of Hemodialysis, International Society of Renal Nutrition & Metabolism, Japanese Society of Dialysis Therapy, Hospira, Kabi, Keryx, Kissei, Novartis, OPKO, National Institutes of Health, National Kidney Foundations, Pfizer, Regulus, Relypsa, Resverlogix, Dr Schaer, Sandoz, Sanofi, Shire, Veterans Affairs, Vifor, UpToDate, and ZS-Pharma, unrelated to this study. Gatwood has received research support from AstraZeneca, Merck & Co., and GlaxoSmithKline unrelated to this study. Obi has received research support from Relypsa/Vifor Pharma Inc. The remaining authors declare that they have no relevant financial interests.

The associations of blood pressure parameters with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients: a cohort study in China

BACKGROUND

It remains controversial to claim blood pressure (BP) as a leading risk factor for high risk of death in peritoneal dialysis patients, and less is known about the relationship between BP and mortality in Chinese peritoneal dialysis patients.

METHODS

From Zhejiang Renal Data System in China, we collected data on patients treated and followed up at 98 peritoneal dialysis centres from 2008 to 2016. The associations of BP parameters [SBP, DBP, mean arterial pressure (MAP) and pulse pressure (PP)] with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were examined. We fitted Cox models for mortality with penalized splines using nonparametric smoothers. Several sensitivity analyses were performed to confirm the robustness of our primary findings.

RESULTS

A total of 7335 Chinese peritoneal dialysis patients were included. During a median follow-up of 35.8 months, 1281 (17.5%) patients died. SBP, DBP, MAP follow a U-shaped pattern of both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. PP presents a reverse L-shaped association with all-cause mortality. Either a higher (SBP >141, DBP >85 or MAP >102 mmHg) or lower (SBP <119, DBP <67 or MAP <88 mmHg) BP tends to have a significantly higher all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk. Higher PP (>60 mmHg) is related to a higher risk of all-cause mortality, but not cardiovascular mortality. These associations remain the same in our competing risk analysis and subgroup analyses.

CONCLUSION

These data indicate U-shaped associations of SBP, DBP and MAP with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality, respectively, and a reverse L-shaped association of PP with all-cause mortality. Further studies are needed to reliably establish the optimal BP targets for better hypertension control in peritoneal dialysis patients.

Serum Cardiac Biomarkers in Asymptomatic Hemodialysis Patients: Role of Soluble Suppression of Tumorigenicity-2

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular events (CVE) remain the leading cause of mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients. The ability to assess the risk of short-term CVE is of great importance. Soluble suppression of tumorogenicity-2 (sST2) is a novel biomarker that better stratifies risk of CVE than troponins in patients with heart failure. Few studies have investigated the role of sST2 in the HD population. The aim of this single-center study was to assess the predictive ability of sST2 on CVE in comparison to high-sensitive cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) in HD patients.

METHODS

This study used a prospective, observational cohort design. We enrolled 40 chronic HD patients asymptomatic for chest pain and without recent history of acute coronary syndrome. We tested sST2 pre-/post-HD, hs-cTnI, and BNP. Demographic/dialytic/echocardiographic data were evaluated. We recorded the number of CVE for 12 months. The patients were classified into 2 groups: those who developed CVE and those who did not.

RESULTS

Ten of the 40 patients (25%) developed CVE during a 12-month follow-up. Increased sST2 levels (p < 0.0001) as well as hs-cTnI and BNP are predictive of CVE. When analyzing biomarkers as binary variables for values above or below the normal range, the correlation remained significant only for sST2 (p = 0.001). A small variation in sST2 levels before and after HD sessions was found (-2.1 ng/mL). sST2 was correlated with left ventricular (LV) echocardiographic data: LV mass index (p = 0.0001), LV ejection fraction (p = 0.01), and diastolic bulging of septum (p = 0.015). BNP and sST2 combination increased the prediction of CVE in a statistical model.

CONCLUSION

Our study confirms that sST2 is useful for stratifying CV risk in the HD population. sST2 can be evaluated simply as a dichotomous value higher or lower than the normal range, making it easily interpretable. Dialysis and residual diuresis did not affect significantly sST2. A multimarker approach that incorporates sST2 and BNP may improve the prediction of CVE.

Association of Pre-ESRD Serum Bicarbonate with Post-ESRD Mortality in Patients with Incident ESRD

BACKGROUND

Serum bicarbonate or total carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations decline as chronic kidney disease (CKD) progresses and rise after dialysis initiation. While metabolic acidosis accelerates the progression of CKD and is associated with higher mortality among patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD), there are scarce data on the association of CO2 concentrations before ESRD transition with post-ESRD mortality.

METHODS

A historical cohort from the Transition of Care in CKD (TC-CKD) study includes 85,505 veterans who transitioned to ESRD from October 1, 2007, through March 31, 2014. After 1,958 patients without follow-up data, 3 patients with missing date of birth, and 50,889 patients without CO2 6 months prior to ESRD transition were excluded, the study population includes 32,655 patients. Associations between CO2 concentrations averaged over the last 6 months and its rate of decline during the 12 months prior to ESRD transition and post-ESRD all-cause, cardiovascular (CV), and non-CV mortality were examined by using hierarchical adjustment with Cox regression models.

RESULTS

The cohort was on average 68 ± 11 years old and included 29% Black veterans. Baseline concentrations of CO2 were 23 ± 4 mEq/L, and median (interquartile range) change in CO2 were -1.8 [-3.4, -0.2] mEq/L/year. High (≥28 mEq/L) and low (<18 mEq/L) CO2 concentrations showed higher adjusted mortality risk while there was no clear trend in the middle range. Consistent associations were observed irrespective of sodium bicarbonate use. There was also a U-shaped association between the change in CO2 and all-cause, CV, and non-CV mortality with the lowest risk approximately at -2.0 and 0.0 mEq/L/year among sodium bicarbonate nonusers and users, respectively, and the highest mortality was among patients with decline in CO2 >4 mEq/L/year.

CONCLUSION

Both high and low pre-ESRD CO2 levels (≥28 and <18 mEq/L) during 6 months prior to dialysis transition and rate of CO2 decline >4 mEq/L/year during 1 year before dialysis initiation were associated with greater post-ESRD all-cause, CV, and non-CV mortality. Further studies are needed to determine the optimal management of CO2 in patients with advanced CKD stages transitioning to ESRD.

Laxative Use and Risk of Dyskalemia in Patients with Advanced CKD Transitioning to Dialysis

BACKGROUND

Patients with advanced CKD experience increased intestinal potassium excretion. This compensatory mechanism may be enhanced by laxative use; however, little is known about the association of laxative use with risk of dyskalemia in advanced CKD.

METHODS

Our study population encompassed 36,116 United States veterans transitioning to ESKD from 2007 to 2015 with greater than or equal to one plasma potassium measurement during the last 1-year period before ESKD transition. Using generalized estimating equations with adjustment for potential confounders, we examined the association of time-varying laxative use with risk of dyskalemia (i.e., hypokalemia [potassium <3.5 mEq/L] or hyperkalemia [>5.5 mEq/L]) versus normokalemia (3.5-5.5 mEq/L) over the 1-year pre-ESKD period. To avoid potential overestimation of dyskalemia risk, potassium measurements within 7 days following a dyskalemia event were disregarded in the analyses.

RESULTS

Over the last 1-year pre-ESKD period, there were 319,219 repeated potassium measurements in the cohort. Of these, 12,787 (4.0%) represented hypokalemia, and 15,842 (5.0%) represented hyperkalemia; the time-averaged potassium measurement was 4.5 mEq/L. After multivariable adjustment, time-varying laxative use (compared with nonuse) was significantly associated with lower risk of hyperkalemia (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.79; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.76 to 0.84) but was not associated with risk of hypokalemia (aOR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.95 to 1.07). The results were robust to several sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Laxative use was independently associated with lower risk of hyperkalemia during the last 1-year pre-ESKD period. Our findings support a putative role of constipation in potassium disarrays and also support (with a careful consideration for the risk-benefit profiles) the therapeutic potential of laxatives in hyperkalemia management in advanced CKD.

Predialysis Potassium Variability and Postdialysis Mortality in Patients With Advanced CKD

Introduction

Patients with advanced non–dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (NDD-CKD) are prone to potassium (K) imbalances due to reduced kidney function. Both hypo- and hyperkalemia are associated with increased mortality; however, it is unclear if K variability before dialysis initiation is associated with outcomes after dialysis initiation.

Methods

We identified 34,167 US veterans with advanced NDD-CKD transitioning to dialysis between October 1, 2007, through March 31, 2015, who had at least 1 K measurement each year over a 3-year period before transition (3-year prelude). For each patient, a linear mixed-effects model was used to regress K over time (in years) over the 3-year prelude to derive K variability (square root of the average squared distance between the observed and estimated K). The main outcomes of interest were 6-month all-cause and cardiovascular mortality after dialysis initiation. Multivariable Cox and Fine-Gray competing risk regression adjusted for 3-year prelude K intercept, K slope (per year), demographics, smoking status, comorbidities, length of hospitalizations, body mass index, vascular access type, medications, average estimated glomerular filtration rate, and number of K measurements over the 3-year prelude were used to assess the association of K variability (expressed as quartiles) with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively.

Results

Higher prelude K variability was associated with higher multivariable-adjusted risk of all-cause mortality but not cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard/subhazard ratios [95% confidence interval] for highest quartile [vs. lowest] of K variability, 1.14 [1.03–1.25] and 0.99 [0.85–1.16] for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively).

Conclusion

Higher K variability is associated with higher all-cause mortality after dialysis initiation.

Laxative use in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease transitioning to dialysis

BACKGROUND

Constipation is highly prevalent in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), particularly among those with end-stage renal disease (ESRD), partly due to their dietary restrictions, comorbidities and medications. Laxatives are typically used for constipation management; however, little is known about laxative use and its associated factors in patients with advanced CKD transitioning to ESRD.

METHODS

In a retrospective cohort of 102 477 US veterans transitioning to dialysis between October 2007 and March 2015, we examined the proportion of patients who filled a prescription for any type of laxative within each 6-month period over 36 months pre- and post-transition to ESRD. Factors associated with laxative use during the last 1-year pre-ESRD period were identified by multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

The proportion of patients prescribed laxatives increased as patients progressed to ESRD, peaking at 37.1% in the 6 months immediately following ESRD transition, then remaining fairly stable throughout the post-ESRD transition period. Among laxative users, stool softeners were the most commonly prescribed (∼30%), followed by hyperosmotics (∼20%), stimulants (∼10%), bulk formers (∼3%), chloride channel activator (<1%) and several combinations of these. The use of anticoagulants, oral iron supplements, non-opioid analgesics, antihistamines and opioid analgesics were among the factors independently associated with pre-ESRD laxative use.

CONCLUSION

The use of laxatives increased considerably as patients neared transition to ESRD, likely mirroring the increasing burden of drug-induced constipation during the ESRD transition period. Findings may provide novel insight into better management strategies to alleviate constipation symptoms and reduce medication requirements in patients with advanced CKD.

Laxative Use and Change in Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate in Patients With Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease

OBJECTIVES

Constipation is highly prevalent in advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD), due in part to dietary (e.g., fiber) restrictions, and is often managed by laxatives; however, the effect of laxative use on kidney function in advanced CKD remains unclear. We aimed to examine the association of laxative use with longitudinal change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in patients with advanced CKD.

DESIGN AND METHODS

In a retrospective cohort of 43,622 US veterans transitioning to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) from 2007 to 2015, we estimated changes in eGFR (slope) by linear mixed-effects models using ≥2 available outpatient eGFR measurements during the 2-year period before transition to ESRD. The association of laxative use with change in eGFR was examined by testing the interaction of time-varying laxative use with time for eGFR slope in the mixed-effects models with adjustment for fixed and time-varying confounders.

RESULTS

Laxatives were prescribed in 49.8% of patients during the last 2-year pre-ESRD period. In the crude model, time-varying laxative use was modestly associated with more progressive eGFR decline compared with non-use of laxatives (median [interquartile interval] -7.1 [-11.9, -4.3] vs. -6.8 [-11.6, -4.0] mL/min/1.73 m²/year, P < .001). After multivariable adjustment, a faster eGFR decline associated with laxative use (vs. non-use of laxatives) remained statistically significant, although the between-group difference in eGFR slope was minimal (median [interquartile interval] -8.8 [-12.9, -5.9] vs. -8.6 [-12.6, -5.6] mL/min/1.73 m²/year, P < .001). The significant association was no longer evident across different types of laxatives (i.e., stool softeners, stimulants, or hyperosmotics).

CONCLUSIONS

There was a clinically negligible association of laxative use with change in eGFR during the last 2-year pre-ESRD period, suggesting the renal safety profile of laxatives in advanced CKD patients.

Longer Predialysis ACEi/ARB Utilization Is Associated With Reduced Postdialysis Mortality

BACKGROUND

Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers (ACEi/ARB) improve predialysis outcomes; however, ACEi/ARB are underused in patients transitioning to dialysis. We examined the association of different patterns of predialysis ACEi/ARB use with postdialysis survival and whether potentially modifiable adverse events are associated with lower predialysis ACEi/ARB use.

METHODS

This was a historic cohort study of 34,676 US veterans with, and 10,690 without, ACEi/ARB exposure in the 3-year predialysis period who subsequently transitioned to dialysis between 2007 and 2014. Associations of different patterns of predialysis ACEi/ARB use with postdialysis all-cause mortality and with predialysis acute kidney injury and hyperkalemia events were examined using multivariable adjusted regression analyses.

RESULTS

The mean age of the cohort was 70 years, 98% were males and 27% were African Americans. Compared to ACEi/ARB nonuse, continuous ACEi/ARB use was associated with lower postdialysis all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.87; 0.83-0.92). In analyses modeling the duration of predialysis ACEi/ARB use, ACEi/ARB use of 50%-74% and ≥75% were associated with lower mortality compared to nonuse (adjusted hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval 0.96, 0.92-0.99 and 0.91; 0.88-0.94, respectively), whereas no increase in postdialysis survival was observed with shorter predialysis ACEi/ARB use. Predialysis acute kidney injury was associated with shorter duration (<50%) of ACEi/ARB use and hyperkalemia was associated with interrupted and ACEi/ARB use of <75%.

CONCLUSIONS

Longer predialysis ACEi/ARB exposure was associated with lower postdialysis mortality. Prospective studies are needed to evaluate the benefits of strategies enabling uninterrupted predialysis ACEi/ARB use.

Mortality Risk in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients Transitioning to Dialysis: Impact of Opiate and Non-Opiate Use

BACKGROUND

Population-based studies show there is a high prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients suffering from chronic pain. While opiates are frequently prescribed in non-dialysis-dependent CKD (NDD-CKD) patients, there may be toxic accumulation of metabolites, particularly among those progressing to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). We examined the association of opiate versus other analgesic use during the pre-ESRD period with post-ESRD mortality among NDD-CKD patients transitioning to dialysis.

METHODS

We examined a national cohort of US Veterans with NDD-CKD who transitioned to dialysis over 2007-14. Among patients who received ≥1 prescription(s) in the Veterans Affairs (VA) Healthcare System within 1 year of transitioning to dialysis, we examined associations of pre-ESRD analgesic status, defined as opiate, gabapentin/pregabalin, other non-opiate analgesic, versus no analgesic use, with post-ESRD mortality using multivariable Cox models.

RESULTS

Among 57,764 patients who met eligibility criteria, pre-ESRD opiate and gabapentin/pregabalin use were each associated with higher post-ESRD mortality (ref: no analgesic use), whereas non-opiate analgesic use was not associated with higher mortality in expanded case-mix analyses: HRs (95% CIs) 1.07 (1.05-1.10), 1.07 (1.01-1.13), and 1.00 (0.94-1.06), respectively. In secondary analyses, increasing frequency of opiate prescriptions exceeding 1 opiate prescription in the 1-year pre-ESRD period was associated with incrementally higher post-ESRD mortality (ref: no analgesic use).

CONCLUSIONS

In NDD-CKD patients transitioning to dialysis, pre-ESRD opiate and gabapentin/pregabalin use were associated with higher post-ESRD mortality, whereas non-opiate analgesic use was not associated with death. There was a graded association between increasing frequency of pre-ESRD opiate use and incrementally higher mortality.

Hierarchical Clustering Analysis for Predicting 1-Year Mortality After Starting Hemodialysis

Introduction

For patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD), due to the heterogeneity of the population, appropriate risk assessment approaches and strategies for further follow-up remain scarce. We aimed to conduct a pilot study for better risk stratification, applying machine learning–based classification to patients with ESRD who newly started maintenance hemodialysis.

Methods

We prospectively studied 101 patients with ESRD, who were new to maintenance hemodialysis therapy, between August 2016 and March 2018. Baseline values of variables such as blood and urine tests were obtained before the initiation of hemodialysis. Agglomerative hierarchical clustering was conducted with the collected continuous data. The resulting clusters were followed up for the primary outcome of 1-year mortality, as analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier survival curve with log-rank test and the Cox proportional hazard model.

Results

The participants were divided into 3 clusters (cluster 1, n = 62; cluster 2, n = 15; cluster 3, n = 24) by hierarchical clustering, using 46 clinical variables. Patients in cluster 3 showed lower systolic blood pressures, and lower serum creatinine and urinary liver-type fatty acid-binding protein levels, before the initiation of hemodialysis. Consequently, cluster 3 was associated with the highest 1-year mortality in the study cohort (P < 0.001), and the difference was significant after adjustment for age and sex (hazard ratio: 10.2; 95% confidence interval: 2.94–46.8, cluster 1 as reference).

Conclusion

In this proof-of-concept study, hierarchical clustering discovered a subgroup with a higher 1-year mortality at the initiation of hemodialysis. Applying machine learning–derived classification to patients with ESRD may contribute to better risk stratification.

Monitoring for intradialytic hypotension: An audit of nursing practice

BACKGROUND

Intradialytic hypotension (IDH) is one of the most common complications associated with haemodialysis (HD), yet the frequency of patient assessment by nurses varies in practice. We sought to measure the frequency of nursing assessments before, during and after HD and to identify any predictors of IDH.

OBJECTIVES

To audit the frequency, nursing management and contributing factors of IDH.

DESIGN

A prospective clinical audit was undertaken over 4 weeks.

PARTICIPANTS

Nurses completed audit sheets on 132 patients at three chronic HD units.

MEASUREMENTS

The audit tool consisted of 34 questions related to demographics, HD prescription, frequency of monitoring and nursing interventions.

RESULTS

A total of 1584 sessions were performed with 876 (55.3%) audits returned, of which 452 were useable. There were 74 actual episodes of IDH, and a further 72 potential episodes may have been prevented due to nursing intervention. Most nurses reported assessing patients before starting HD and as required before an actual or potential IDH event (n = 85; 63%); few hourly assessments were performed. Predictors of IDH were systolic blood pressure ≤140 mmHg, having more than four comorbidities, dialysate temperature > 36°C, calcium < 1.3 mmol/L and a shorter dialysis session (3.0-4.5 h). These predictors explained 14.1% of the variance in hypotensive episodes during HD.

CONCLUSION

This clinical audit highlighted the importance of assessing blood pressure trends during HD to preemptively intervene before IDH developing. The audit has resulted in a practice change to hourly assessments. Follow-up audits of practice should occur.

Infection in Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease and Subsequent Adverse Outcomes after Dialysis Initiation: A Nationwide Cohort Study

It remains unclear whether infection events before entering end stage renal disease (ESRD) have a long-term negative impact on patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) who survive to permanent dialysis. We enrolled 62,872 patients with advanced CKD who transitioned to maintenance dialysis between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2013. We used multivariable Cox as well as Fine and Gray models to determine the association of pre-dialysis infection exposure with all-cause mortality after starting dialysis. Compared with no infection during advanced CKD, the presence of infection exposure during that period was independently associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality in the first year of dialysis (hazard ratio [HR] 1.34, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.27–1.42) and also during the entire follow-up period (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.16–1.22). The increased risks of all-cause mortality increased incrementally with higher annual number of infections during advanced CKD. Similar results were found for all other adverse outcomes, e.g. post-ESRD infection-related hospitalization and major cardiac and cerebrovascular events. In conclusion, infection events during advanced CKD was associated with increased risks of adverse outcomes after dialysis has been started. Timely interventions in such a vulnerable group may help attenuate these risks.

Blood Pressure and Cognitive Decline in Prevalent Hemodialysis Patients

BACKGROUND

Hypertension is associated with cognitive decline in the general population. It is unclear what impact blood pressure (BP) has on cognitive decline in patients receiving maintenance hemodialysis (HD).

METHODS

Using a longitudinal cohort of 314 prevalent HD patients without dementia at baseline, we examined the association of predialysis systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP), pulse pressure, and intradialytic SBP change (pre minus post), averaged for a month, with cognitive decline. Cognitive function was determined by a neurocognitive battery, administered yearly. Individual cognitive test results were reduced into 2 domain scores using principal components analysis (by definition mean of 0 and SD of 1), representing memory and executive function. Joint models, allowing for characterization of cognitive score slopes and including adjustment for potential confounders, were utilized to account for competing risks from death, dropout, or kidney transplantation.

RESULTS

Mean age was 62 years; 54% were men, 23% were black, and 90% had at least a high school education. During median follow-up of 2.1 years (25th-75th: 1.0-4.5), 191 had at least one follow-up test, 148 died, and 43 received kidney transplants. Low predialysis DBP and high pulse pressure were both associated with steeper executive function decline (each 10 mm Hg lower DBP = -0.03 SD [-0.01 to -0.05] per year steeper decline) in executive function (each 10 mm Hg higher pulse pressure = -0.03 SD [-0.06 to -0.01] steeper decline) but not for memory function. SBP and intradialytic change were not associated with steeper decline for either memory or executive function.

CONCLUSIONS

No relationship was seen between SBP or intradialytic change in BP with cognitive decline. In prevalent HD patients, lower predialysis DBP and wider predialysis pulse pressure are associated with steeper cognitive decline in executive function but not memory.

KDOQI US Commentary on the 2017 ACC/AHA Hypertension Guideline

Hypertension is a modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality and reduction of elevated blood pressure (BP) remains an important intervention for slowing kidney disease progression. Over the past decade, the most appropriate BP target for initiation and titration of BP-lowering medications has been an area of intense research and debate within the clinical community. In 2017, the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) in conjunction with several other professional societies released new hypertension guidelines based on data from a systematic review of clinical trials and observational data. While many of the recommendations in the ACC/AHA hypertension guideline are relevant to nephrology practice, BP targets and management strategies for patients receiving dialysis are not discussed. This Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (KDOQI) commentary focuses largely on recommendations from the ACC/AHA hypertension guidelines that are pertinent to individuals at risk of chronic kidney disease or with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease. This KDOQI commentary also includes a brief discussion of the consensus statement regarding hypertension diagnosis and management for adults receiving maintenance dialysis published by the European Renal and Cardiovascular Medicine Working Group of the European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) and the Hypertension and the Kidney working group of the European Society of Hypertension. Overall, we support the vast majority of the ACC/AHA recommendations and highlight select areas in which best diagnosis and treatment options remain controversial.

Development and Validation of Prediction Scores for Early Mortality at Transition to Dialysis

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a risk prediction model that would help individualize treatment and improve the shared decision-making process between clinicians and patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We developed a risk prediction tool for mortality during the first year of dialysis based on pre-end-stage renal disease characteristics in a cohort of 35,878 US veterans with incident end-stage renal disease who transitioned to dialysis treatment between October 1, 2007, and March 31, 2014 and then externally validated this tool among 4284 patients in the Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) health care system who transitioned to dialysis treatment between January 1, 2007, and September 30, 2015.

RESULTS

To ensure model goodness of fit, 2 separate models were selected for patients whose last estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) before dialysis initiation was less than 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² or 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² or higher. Model discrimination in the internal validation cohort of veterans resulted in C statistics of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.70-0.72) and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.65-0.67) among patients with eGFR lower than 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² and 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² or higher, respectively. In the KPSC external validation cohort, the developed risk score exhibited C statistics of 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74-0.79) in men and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.71-0.76) in women with eGFR lower than 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.67-0.74) in men and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62-0.72) in women with eGFR of 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² or higher.

CONCLUSION

A new risk prediction tool for mortality during the first year after transition to dialysis (available at www.DialysisScore.com) was developed in the large national Veterans Affairs cohort and validated with good performance in the racially, ethnically, and gender diverse KPSC cohort. This risk prediction tool will help identify high-risk populations and guide management strategies at the transition to dialysis.

Patient-Centered Approach for Hypertension Management in End-Stage Kidney Disease: Art or Science?

Hypertension is present in most patients with end-stage kidney disease initiating dialysis and management of hypertension is a routine but challenging task in everyday dialysis care. End-stage kidney disease patients are uniquely heterogeneous individuals with significant variations in demographic characteristics, functional capacity, and presence of concomitant comorbid conditions and their severity. Therefore, these patients require personalized approaches in addressing not only hypertension but related illnesses, while also accounting for overall prognosis and projected longevity. There are only limited clinical trial data to guide individualized blood pressure management and current guidelines are based predominantly on observational evidence and expert opinions. Inthis review, we reflect on the shortcomings of peridialytic blood pressure recordings and discuss an important paradigm shift toward using out-of-dialysis blood pressure for evaluating hypertension control and for making treatment decisions. In addition, we provide our personal view on blood pressure goals and summarize nonpharmacologic and pharmacologic treatment options for individualized management of hypertension in end-stage kidney disease.

Non-recovery from dialysis-requiring acute kidney injury and short-term mortality and cardiovascular risk: a cohort study

Background

The high mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is well-documented. Recent literature suggests that acute kidney injury is also associated with CVD. It is unknown whether patients with incident ESRD due to dialysis-requiring acute kidney injury (AKI-D) are at higher short-term risk for death and CVD events, compared with incident ESRD patients without preceding AKI-D. Few studies have examined the impact of recovery from AKI-D on subsequent CVD risk.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, we evaluated adult members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California who initiated dialysis from January 2009 to September 2015. Preceding AKI-D and subsequent outcomes of death and CVD events (acute coronary syndrome, heart failure, ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack) were identified from electronic health records. We performed multivariable Cox regression models adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, medication use, and laboratory results.

Results

Compared to incident ESRD patients who experienced AKI-D (n = 1865), patients with ESRD not due to AKI-D (n = 3772) had significantly lower adjusted rates of death (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.56, 95% CI: 0.47–0.67) and heart failure hospitalization (aHR 0.45, 0.30–0.70). Compared to AKI-D patients who did not recover and progressed to ESRD, AKI-D patients who recovered (n = 1347) had a 30% lower adjusted relative rate of death (aHR 0.70, 0.55–0.88).

Conclusions

Patients who transition to ESRD via AKI-D are a high-risk subgroup that may benefit from aggressive monitoring and medical management, particularly for heart failure. Recovery from AKI-D is independently associated with lower short-term mortality.

Association of Pre-ESRD Serum Calcium With Post-ESRD Mortality Among Incident ESRD Patients: A Cohort Study

Albumin-corrected serum calcium (cSCa) decline at late stages of chronic kidney disease and rise after dialysis initiation. Although hypercalcemia is associated with higher mortality in end-stage renal disease (ESRD), there are scarce data on the impact of pre-ESRD cSCa on post-ESRD mortality. Therefore, we used a large national cohort of 21,826 US veterans who transitioned to dialysis in all US Department of Veterans Affairs health care facilities over 2009 to 2014 to examine the associations with all-cause and cause-specific post-ESRD mortality of (1) cSCa concentrations averaged over the last 6 months and (2) its rate of decline during the last 12 months before dialysis initiation. Mean concentrations and median rate of decline of cSCa were 9.3 ± 0.7 mg/dL and -0.15 (interquartile range -0.39 to 0.07) mg/dL/year, respectively. A total of 9596 patients died during the follow-up period (mean 1.9 years; total 41,541 patient-years) with an incidence rate of 23.1 per 100 patient-years. There was an independent linear association between higher cSCa with higher mortality (p_trend < 0.001). The mortality risk associated with cSCa ≥9.0 mg/dL was attenuated among active vitamin D users (p_interaction < 0.001). Patients with faster decline in cSCa showed lower mortality irrespective of baseline cSCa concentrations. These cSCa-mortality associations were stronger for noncardiovascular versus cardiovascular death. In conclusion, lower pre-ESRD cSCa and faster decline in cSCa were consistently and linearly associated with better post-ESRD survival among US veterans, especially for noncardiovascular death. Further studies are needed to determine if correcting hypocalcemia is beneficial or harmful and which intervention is preferred when indicated among patients transitioning to ESRD. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Pre-end-stage renal disease visit-to-visit systolic blood pressure variability and post-end-stage renal disease mortality in incident dialysis patients

OBJECTIVES

Higher SBP visit-to-visit variability (SBPV) has been associated with increased risk of adverse events in patients with chronic kidney disease, but the association of SBPV in advanced nondialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease with mortality after the transition to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) remains unknown.

METHODS

Among 17 729 US veterans transitioning to dialysis between October 2007 and September 2011, we assessed SBPV calculated from the SD of at least three intraindividual outpatient SBP values during the last year prior to dialysis transition (prelude period). Outcomes included factors associated with higher prelude SBPV and post-transition all-cause, cardiovascular, and infection-related mortality, assessed using multivariable linear regression and Cox and competing risk regressions, respectively, adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, medications, cardiovascular medication adherence, SBP, BMI, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and type of vascular access.

RESULTS

Modifiable clinical factors associated with higher prelude SBPV included higher SBP, use of antihypertensive medications and erythropoiesis-stimulating agents, inadequate cardiovascular medication adherence, and catheter use. After multivariable adjustment, higher prelude SBPV was significantly associated with higher post-ESRD all-cause and infection-related mortality, but not cardiovascular mortality [hazard/subhazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for the highest (vs. lowest) quartile of SBPV, 1.08 (1.01-1.16), 1.02 (0.89-1.15), and 1.41 (1.10-1.80) for all-cause, cardiovascular, and infection-related mortality, respectively].

CONCLUSION

High pre-ESRD SBPV is potentially modifiable and associated with higher all-cause and infection-related mortality following dialysis initiation. Further studies are needed to test whether modification of pre-ESRD SBPV can improve clinical outcomes in incident ESRD patients. VIDEO ABSTRACT:.