Development and Validation of a Model to Determine Risk of Progression of Barrett's Esophagus to Neoplasia

Japanese Classification of Esophageal Cancer, 12th Edition: Part II

This is the second half of English edition of Japanese Classification of Esophageal Cancer, 12th Edition that was published by the Japan Esophageal Society in 2022.

AGA Clinical Practice Guideline on Endoscopic Eradication Therapy of Barrett's Esophagus and Related Neoplasia

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is the precursor to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Endoscopic eradication therapy (EET) can be effective in eradicating BE and related neoplasia and has greater risk of harms and resource use than surveillance endoscopy. This clinical practice guideline aims to inform clinicians and patients by providing evidence-based practice recommendations for the use of EET in BE and related neoplasia.

METHODS

The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation framework was used to assess evidence and make recommendations. The panel prioritized clinical questions and outcomes according to their importance for clinicians and patients, conducted an evidence review, and used the Evidence-to-Decision Framework to develop recommendations regarding the use of EET in patients with BE under the following scenarios: presence of (1) high-grade dysplasia, (2) low-grade dysplasia, (3) no dysplasia, and (4) choice of stepwise endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) or focal EMR plus ablation, and (5) endoscopic submucosal dissection vs EMR. Clinical recommendations were based on the balance between desirable and undesirable effects, patient values, costs, and health equity considerations.

RESULTS

The panel agreed on 5 recommendations for the use of EET in BE and related neoplasia. Based on the available evidence, the panel made a strong recommendation in favor of EET in patients with BE high-grade dysplasia and conditional recommendation against EET in BE without dysplasia. The panel made a conditional recommendation in favor of EET in BE low-grade dysplasia; patients with BE low-grade dysplasia who place a higher value on the potential harms and lower value on the benefits (which are uncertain) regarding reduction of esophageal cancer mortality could reasonably select surveillance endoscopy. In patients with visible lesions, a conditional recommendation was made in favor of focal EMR plus ablation over stepwise EMR. In patients with visible neoplastic lesions undergoing resection, the use of either endoscopic mucosal resection or endoscopic submucosal dissection was suggested based on lesion characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

This document provides a comprehensive outline of the indications for EET in the management of BE and related neoplasia. Guidance is also provided regarding the considerations surrounding implementation of EET. Providers should engage in shared decision making based on patient preferences. Limitations and gaps in the evidence are highlighted to guide future research opportunities.

The Role of Screening and Early Detection in Upper Gastrointestinal Cancers

Upper gastrointestinal cancers are among the leading causes of cancer deaths worldwide with exceptionally poor prognosis, which is largely attributable to frequently delayed diagnosis. Although effective screening is critical for early detection, the highly variable incidence of upper gastrointestinal cancers presents challenges, rendering universal screening programs suboptimal in most populations globally. Optimal strategies in regions of modest incidence, such as the United States, require a targeted approach, focused on high-risk individuals based on demographic, familial, and clinicopathologic risk factors. Assessment of underlying precancerous lesions has key implications for risk stratification and informing clinical decisions to improve patient outcomes.

National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance on monitoring and management of Barrett's oesophagus and stage I oesophageal adenocarcinoma

Barrett's oesophagus is the only known precursor to oesophageal adenocarcinoma, a cancer with very poor prognosis. The main risk factors for Barrett's oesophagus are a history of gastro-oesophageal acid reflux symptoms and obesity. Men, smokers and those with a family history are also at increased risk. Progression from Barrett's oesophagus to cancer occurs via an intermediate stage, known as dysplasia. However, dysplasia and early cancer usually develop without any clinical signs, often in individuals whose symptoms are well controlled by acid suppressant medications; therefore, endoscopic surveillance is recommended to allow for early diagnosis and timely clinical intervention. Individuals with Barrett's oesophagus need to be fully informed about the implications of this diagnosis and the benefits and risks of monitoring strategies. Pharmacological treatments are recommended for control of symptoms, but not for chemoprevention. Dysplasia and stage 1 oesophageal adenocarcinoma have excellent prognoses, since they can be cured with endoscopic or surgical therapies. Endoscopic resection is the most accurate staging technique for early Barrett's-related oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Endoscopic ablation is effective and indicated to eradicate Barrett's oesophagus in patients with dysplasia. Future research should focus on improved accuracy for dysplasia detection via new technologies and providing more robust evidence to support pathways for follow-up and treatment.

Predicting Risk of Colorectal Cancer After Adenoma Removal in a Large Community-Based Setting

INTRODUCTION

Colonoscopy surveillance guidelines categorize individuals as high or low risk for future colorectal cancer (CRC) based primarily on their prior polyp characteristics, but this approach is imprecise, and consideration of other risk factors may improve postpolypectomy risk stratification.

METHODS

Among patients who underwent a baseline colonoscopy with removal of a conventional adenoma in 2004-2016, we compared the performance for postpolypectomy CRC risk prediction (through 2020) of a comprehensive model featuring patient age, diabetes diagnosis, and baseline colonoscopy indication and prior polyp findings (i.e., adenoma with advanced histology, polyp size ≥10 mm, and sessile serrated adenoma or traditional serrated adenoma) with a polyp model featuring only polyp findings. Models were developed using Cox regression. Performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.

RESULTS

Among 95,001 patients randomly divided 70:30 into model development (n = 66,500) and internal validation cohorts (n = 28,501), 495 CRC were subsequently diagnosed; 354 in the development cohort and 141 in the validation cohort. Models demonstrated adequate calibration, and the comprehensive model demonstrated superior predictive performance to the polyp model in the development cohort (AUC 0.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.68-0.74 vs AUC 0.61, 95% CI 0.58-0.64, respectively) and validation cohort (AUC 0.70, 95% CI 0.65-0.75 vs AUC 0.62, 95% CI 0.57-0.67, respectively).

DISCUSSION

A comprehensive CRC risk prediction model featuring patient age, diabetes diagnosis, and baseline colonoscopy indication and polyp findings was more accurate at predicting postpolypectomy CRC diagnosis than a model based on polyp findings alone.

Promises and Limitations of Current Models for Understanding Barrett's Esophagus and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

This review was developed to provide a thorough and effective update on models relevant to esophageal metaplasia, dysplasia, and carcinogenesis, focusing on the advantages and limitations of different models of Barrett's esophagus (BE) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC).

METHODS

This expert review was written on the basis of a thorough review of the literature combined with expert interpretation of the state of the field. We emphasized advances over the years 2012-2023 and provided detailed information related to the characterization of established human esophageal cell lines.

RESULTS

New insights have been gained into the pathogenesis of BE and EAC using patient-derived samples and single-cell approaches. Relevant animal models include genetic as well as surgical mouse models and emphasize the development of lesions at the squamocolumnar junction in the mouse stomach. Rat models are generated using surgical approaches that directly connect the small intestine and esophagus. Large animal models have the advantage of including features in human esophagus such as esophageal submucosal glands. Alternatively, cell culture approaches remain important in the field and allow for personalized approaches, and scientific rigor can be ensured by authentication of cell lines.

CONCLUSIONS

Research in BE and EAC remains highly relevant given the morbidity and mortality associated with cancers of the tubular esophagus and gastroesophageal junction. Careful selection of models and inclusion of human samples whenever possible will ensure relevance to human health and disease.

Impact of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status on incident and prevalent esophageal cancer in patients with Barrett's esophagus

The impact of race/ethnicity (RE) or socioeconomic status (SES) on progression from Barrett's esophagus (BE) to esophageal cancer (EC) is not well established. We aimed to evaluate the association between demographic factors and SES on EC diagnosis in an ethnically diverse BE cohort. Patients aged 18-63 with incident BE diagnosed in October 2015-March 2020 were identified in the Optum Clinformatics DataMart Database. Patients were followed until the diagnosis of prevalent EC <1 year or incident EC ≥1 year from BE diagnosis, or until the end of their continuous enrollment period. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to determine associations between demographics, SES factors, BE risk factors, and EC. Demographics of the 12,693 patients included mean age of BE diagnosis 53.0 (SD 8.5) years, 56.4% male, 78.3% White/10.0% Hispanic/6.4% Black/3.0% Asian. The median follow-up was 26.8 (IQR 19.0-42.0) months. In total, 75 patients (0.59%) were diagnosed with EC (46 [0.36%] prevalent EC; 29 [0.23%] incident EC), and 74 patients (0.58%) developed high-grade dysplasia (HGD) (46 [0.36%] prevalent HGD; 28 [0.22%] incident HGD). Adjusted HR (95% CI) for prevalent EC comparing household net worth ≥$150,000 vs. <$150,000 was 0.57 (0.33-0.98). Adjusted HRs (95% CI) for prevalent and incident EC comparing non-White vs. White patients were 0.93 (0.47-1.85) and 0.97 (0.21-3.47), respectively. In summary, a lower SES, captured by the household net worth, was associated with prevalent EC. There was no significant difference in prevalent or incident EC among White vs. non-White patients. EC progression in BE may be similar among racial/ethnic groups, but SES disparities may impact BE outcomes.

Clinical and Endoscopic Differences Between Patients With Barrett's Esophagus With and Without Dysplasia/Adenocarcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is the main precursor of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). This study aimed to identify the risk factors associated with BE progression to dysplasia or EAC in a Latin population.

METHODS

The study is a retrospective analysis of a single-center cohort of patients with BE, evaluated from 2002 to 2012.

RESULTS

We identified 420 patients with BE; 281 (66.9%) of them were men with a mean age of 57.2 ± 15.3 years. Among all BE patients evaluated, 81 (19.3%) had progression to some degree of dysplasia/EAC. The mean follow-up was 5.6 years. Multivariate analysis showed that age (OR = 1.03), cigarette smoking (OR = 3.05), long-segment BE (OR = 4.81), and a visible lesion on BE (OR = 6.94) were associated with progression to dysplasia/EAC.

CONCLUSION

In Latin patients with BE, age, cigarette smoking, long-segment BE, and the presence of lesions were associated with the presence of dysplasia/EAC.

Development and validation of a prediction model for histologic progression in patients with nondysplastic Barrett's esophagus

OBJECTIVES

Patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE) are at risk of progression to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). We developed a model to predict histologic progression in patients with nondysplastic BE (NDBE).

METHODS

A longitudinal study in three referral centers was performed between January 2010 and December 2019. As progression to low-grade dysplasia (LGD) can be considered an indication for ablative therapy, the study end-point was histopathologic progression to LGD, high-grade dysplasia, or EAC at 3 years after diagnosis. We used logistic regression to create the model. Seventy percent of the cohort were used to stem the model and the remaining 30% for internal validation.

RESULTS

A total of 542 patients were included, 69.4% of whom were male, mean age 62.2 years. Long-segment BE at index endoscopy was diagnosed in 20.8% of the patients. After a mean follow-up of 6.7 years, 133 patients (24.5%) had histologic progression. Our model identified a neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (odds ratio [OR] 2.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.77-2.32, P < 0.001), BE length (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.09-1.36, P < 0.001), age (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.05, P = 0.02), smoking (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.09-2.75, P = 0.04), and renal failure (OR 1.51, 95% CI 0.93-2.43, P = 0.07) as predictors of histologic progression at 3 years. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of this model were 0.88 and 0.76 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This novel, internally validated model may predict histologic progression, even in patients with NDBE who generally have low rates of progression over time, and may contribute to enhanced patient selection for more intense surveillance programs.

Impact of Residing in Below Median Household Income Districts on Outcomes in Patients with Advanced Barrett's Esophagus

Background

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is a premalignant condition to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Low socioeconomic (SES) status adversely impacts care and outcomes in patients with EAC, but this has not been evaluated in BE. As the treatment of BE is similarly intensive, we aimed to evaluate the effect of SES on achieving complete eradication of intestinal metaplasia (CE-IM), dysplasia (CE-D) and development of invasive EAC.

Methods

Our study was a retrospective cohort study. Consecutive patients between January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2018, referred for BE-associated high-grade dysplasia or intramucosal adenocarcinoma were included. Pre, intra and post-procedural data were collected. Household income data was collected from the 2016 census based on postal code region. Patients were divided into income groups relative to the 2016 median household income in Ontario. Multivariate regression was performed for outcomes of interest.

Results

Four hundred and fifty-nine patients were included. Rate of CE-IM was similar between income groups. Fifty-five per cent (n = 144/264) versus 65% (n = 48/264) in the below and above-income groups achieved CE-D, respectively, P = 0.02. Eighteen per cent (n = 48/264) versus 11% (n = 22/195) were found to have invasive EAC during their treatment course in below and above-income groups, respectively, P = 0.04. Residing in a below-median-income district was associated with developing invasive EAC (Odds Ratio, [OR] 1.84, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01 to 3.35) and failure to achieve CE-D (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.97).

Conclusions

Residing in low-income districts is associated with worse outcomes in patients with advanced BE. Further research is needed to guide future initiatives to address the potential impact of SES barriers in the optimal care of BE.

Categorizing Risks within Barrett's Esophagus To Guide Surveillance and Interception; Suggesting a New Framework

Barrett's esophagus is a precancerous condition that can progress in a stepwise manner to dysplasia and eventually esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Once diagnosed, patients with Barrett's esophagus are kept on surveillance to detect progression so that timely intervention can occur with endoscopic therapy. Several demographic and clinical risk factors are known to increase progression toward EAC, such as longer Barrett's segments, and these patients are kept on tighter surveillance. While p53 IHC has been advocated as an adjunct to histopathologic diagnosis, use of this biomarker is variable, and no other molecular factors are currently applied. Given the new evidence available, it is time to consider whether other risk factors or tools could be applied in clinical practice to decide on closer or attenuated surveillance. In this commentary, we summarize the most relevant risk factors for Barrett's esophagus progression, highlight the most promising novel risk stratification tools-including nonendoscopic triage and commercial biomarker panels, and propose a new framework suggesting how to incorporate risk stratification into clinical practice.

What Is "Cold" and What Is "Hot" in Mucosal Ablation for Barrett's Oesophagus-Related Dysplasia: A Practical Guide

Over the last two decades, endoscopic eradication therapy has been established as the therapeutic strategy of choice for patients with Barrett's oesophagus-related dysplasia and early oesophageal adenocarcinoma. With a multimodal approach, ablative therapies have been highly effective in achieving remarkable eradication rates of metaplastic epithelium with an acceptable adverse event rate. Among ablative techniques, radiofrequency ablation is currently considered as the first-line option as its efficacy and safety are strongly supported by relevant data. Nevertheless, radiofrequency ablation is costly, and not universally available, or applicable to every situation. Moreover, primary failure and recurrence rates are not negligible. In the last few years, cryotherapy techniques and hybrid argon plasma coagulation have been increasingly assessed as potential novel ablative therapies. Preliminary data have been promising and suggest that they may even have a role as first-line options, alternatively to radiofrequency ablation. The aim of this review is to provide a practical guide for the ablation of Barrett's oesophagus, with emphasis on the different ablative options.

Surveillance in Barrett's Esophagus: Challenges, Progress, and Possibilities

Endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's esophagus, aiming to detect prevalent dysplasia and adenocarcinoma, followed by effective endoscopic treatment, is an integral part of the esophageal adenocarcinoma prevention paradigm. However, several limitations, such as the subtle appearance of dysplasia, sampling error (inherent in current surveillance protocols), and noncompliance with surveillance recommendations, lead to missed dysplasia and neoplasia, reducing the effectiveness of surveillance as currently practiced. Careful endoscopic assessment with high-resolution white-light endoscopy, dye-based or electronic chromoendoscopy, and comprehensive sampling of the BE mucosa, remains the cornerstone of endoscopic surveillance. Emerging innovations in this area span the gamut of more efficient sampling methods, advanced imaging tools, artificial intelligence, and molecular marker-powered approaches as adjuncts, to identify prevalent and predict incident dysplasia or adenocarcinoma. Development and implementation of validated quality indicators will allow additional advancement of this critical field. These approaches will hopefully enable efficient and effective cancer prevention and treatment.

Seattle Protocol Is More Effective in Detection of Dysplasia Compared to Technology-Assisted Targeted Biopsies in Patients with Barrett’s Esophagus

Background and aims: With the development of narrow-band imaging (NBI) in the endoscopic evaluation of patients with Barrett’s esophagus (BE), the role of random biopsies according to the Seattle protocol (SP) has been questioned. We aim to compare the utility of advanced imaging to SP in patients with BE. Methods: A prospective cohort of patients with proven BE was retrospectively analyzed. All biopsies were reviewed by an expert GI pathologist. Advanced imaging was tandemly used with SP in each endoscopic procedure. Results: A total of 155 out of 340 patients (45.5%) with BE were diagnosed with dysplasia during a median follow-up of 4.7 years (IQR 3.4–6.1 years) and were part of the statistical analysis. A total of 82 patients had a diagnosis of dysplasia at presentation, whereas 84 patients developed dysplasia during follow up. A total of 67 out of 82 patients with dysplasia at presentation (81.7%), and 65 out of 84 patients that were diagnosed with dysplasia during follow-up (77.4%) were diagnosed using SP. In addition, whereas all the events of EAC were diagnosed using targeted biopsies, 57.1% of the events of HGD and 86.3% of LGD were diagnosed using SP. Conclusion: Our findings demonstrate the significance of SP in the detection of low- and high-grade dysplasia in patients with BE. SP should remain the mainstay of endoscopic surveillance in this population.

Development and validation of a model to determine the risk of esophageal strictures after endoscopic submucosal dissection for esophageal neoplasms

BACKGROUND

Currently, endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) is widely used as therapeutic methods for superficial esophageal neoplasms (SENs). However, patients are likely to develop esophageal strictures after ESD. Our study aims to explore the possible risk factors for esophageal strictures after ESD and develop and validate a risk model for predicting the progression of postoperative esophageal strictures.

METHODS

Clinical data of patients who underwent ESD in our hospital for suspected early esophageal squamous cell carcinoma were collected from January 2014 to March 2020. The possible risk factors for postoperative esophageal strictures were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Eventually, a risk-scoring model was built, in which 70% of patients were used to develop the model and the remaining 30% were used for validation.

RESULTS

A total of 553 patients who received ESD were involved, and the incidence of esophageal strictures after ESD was 16.6% (92/553). In our study, the operating time, circumferential range, lesion location, depth of infiltration, and R0 resection were independent risk factors for esophageal strictures after ESD. According to the risk of postoperative esophageal stenosis, a risk-scoring model for esophageal strictures prediction was developed. The risk score ranged from 0 to 11 points, and the risk scores were divided into low risk (0-3 points), intermediate risk (4-7 points), and high risk (8-11 points). The proportions of esophageal stenosis progression in the corresponding risk categories were 6.33%, 29.14%, and 100%.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a risk-scoring model based on factors including circumferential range, lesion location, depth of infiltration, and R0 resection. It stratified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups for postoperative esophageal strictures development. This scoring model may have the potential to guide the management of patients after ESD in the future.

Prediction of Progression in Barrett's Esophagus Using a Tissue Systems Pathology Test: A Pooled Analysis of International Multicenter Studies

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Prediction of progression risk in Barrett's esophagus (BE) may enable personalized management. We aimed to assess the adjunct value of a tissue systems pathology test (TissueCypher) performed on paraffin-embedded biopsy tissue, when added to expert pathology review in predicting incident progression, pooling individual patient-level data from multiple international studies METHODS: Demographics, clinical features, the TissueCypher risk class/score, and progression status were analyzed. Conditional logistical regression analysis was used to develop multivariable models predicting incident progression with and without the TissueCypher risk class (low, intermediate, high). Concordance (c-) statistics were calculated and compared with likelihood ratio tests to assess predictive ability of models. A risk prediction calculator integrating clinical variables and TissueCypher risk class was also developed.

RESULTS

Data from 552 patients with baseline no (n = 472), indefinite (n = 32), or low-grade dysplasia (n = 48) (comprising 152 incident progressors and 400 non-progressors) were analyzed. A high-risk test class independently predicted increased risk of progression to high-grade dysplasia/adenocarcinoma (odds ratio, 6.0; 95% confidence interval, 2.9-12.0), along with expert confirmed low-grade dysplasia (odds ratio, 2.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-7.2). Model prediction of progression with the TissueCypher risk class incorporated was significantly superior than without, in the whole cohort (c-statistic 0.75 vs 0.68; P < .0001) and the nondysplastic BE subset (c-statistic 0.72 vs 0.63; P < .0001). Sensitivity and specificity of the high risk TissueCypher class were 38% and 94%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

An objective tissue systems pathology test high-risk class is a strong independent predictor of incident progression in patients with BE, substantially improving progression risk prediction over clinical variables alone. Although test specificity was high, sensitivity was modest.

AGA Clinical Practice Update on New Technology and Innovation for Surveillance and Screening in Barrett's Esophagus: Expert Review

DESCRIPTION

The purpose of this best practice advice (BPA) article from the Clinical Practice Update Committee of the American Gastroenterological Association is to provide an update on advances and innovation regarding the screening and surveillance of Barrett's esophagus.

METHODS

The BPA statements presented here were developed from expert review of existing literature combined with discussion and expert opinion to provide practical advice. Formal rating of the quality of evidence or strength of BPAs was not the intent of this clinical practice update. This expert review was commissioned and approved by the AGA Institute Clinical Practice Updates Committee (CPUC) and the AGA Governing Board to provide timely guidance on a topic of high clinical importance to the AGA membership, and underwent internal peer review by the CPUC and external peer review through standard procedures of Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 1: Screening with standard upper endoscopy may be considered in individuals with at least 3 established risk factors for Barrett's esophagus (BE) and esophageal adenocarcinoma, including individuals who are male, non-Hispanic white, age >50 years, have a history of smoking, chronic gastroesophageal reflux disease, obesity, or a family history of BE or esophageal adenocarcinoma. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 2: Nonendoscopic cell-collection devices may be considered as an option to screen for BE. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 3: Screening and surveillance endoscopic examination should be performed using high-definition white light endoscopy and virtual chromoendoscopy, with endoscopists spending adequate time inspecting the Barrett's segment. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 4: Screening and surveillance exams should define the extent of BE using a standardized grading system documenting the circumferential and maximal extent of the columnar lined esophagus (Prague classification) with a clear description of landmarks and the location and characteristics of visible lesions (nodularity, ulceration), when present. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 5: Advanced imaging technologies such as endomicroscopy may be used as adjunctive techniques to identify dysplasia. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 6: Sampling during screening and surveillance exams should be performed using the Seattle biopsy protocol (4-quadrant biopsies every 1-2 cm and target biopsies from any visible lesion). BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 7: Wide-area transepithelial sampling may be used as an adjunctive technique to sample the suspected or established Barrett's segment (in addition to the Seattle biopsy protocol). BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 8: Patients with erosive esophagitis should be biopsied when concern of dysplasia or malignancy exists. A repeat endoscopy should be performed after 8 weeks of twice a day proton pump inhibitor therapy. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 9: Tissue systems pathology-based prediction assay may be utilized for risk stratification of patients with nondysplastic BE. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 10: Risk stratification models may be utilized to selectively identify individuals at risk for Barrett's associated neoplasia. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 11: Given the significant interobserver variability among pathologists, the diagnosis of BE-related neoplasia should be confirmed by an expert pathology review. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 12: Patients with BE-related neoplasia should be referred to endoscopists with expertise in advanced imaging, resection, and ablation. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 13: All patients with BE should be placed on at least daily proton pump inhibitor therapy. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 14: Patients with nondysplastic BE should undergo surveillance endoscopy in 3 to 5 years. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 15: In patients undergoing surveillance after endoscopic eradication therapy, random biopsies should be taken of the esophagogastric junction, gastric cardia, and the distal 2 cm of the neosquamous epithelium as well as from all visible lesions, independent of the length of the original BE segment.

Induction and maintenance of healing in erosive esophagitis in the United States

INTRODUCTION

Erosive esophagitis (EE) occurs when refluxate from the stomach causes T-lymphocyte infiltration of the esophageal mucosa, resulting in mucosal breaks. Currently, therapy with proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) is the standard treatment for EE in the United States, but few comprehensive reviews exist on the efficacy of PPIs in US populations. Here, we present the most contemporary, thorough analysis of PPI efficacy rates, and identify and characterize patient subgroups at risk for poor healing outcomes.

AREAS COVERED

We searched the literature to identify studies reporting rates of endoscopic healing and maintained healing of EE with PPI therapies in the US and found a paucity of recent evidence and real-world evidence. Twenty-two studies from 2009 and earlier were included in the final dataset.

EXPERT OPINION

Rates of EE healing with PPIs were highest after 8 weeks of treatment, with over 80% of patients in most treatment arms demonstrating endoscopic healing, compared to lower efficacy (<80%) at 4 weeks. Rates of maintained healing with PPIs at 6 and 12 months were mostly lower than 80%, although the data were limited. Symptomatic patients and those with severe EE were less likely to achieve healing. Obese patients experienced similar healing rates as non-obese patients.

Barrett Esophagus: A Review

IMPORTANCE

Barrett esophagus is characterized by the replacement of normal esophageal squamous cell epithelium with columnar metaplasia and affects approximately 5% of people in the US and approximately 1% worldwide. Approximately 3% to 5% of patients with Barrett esophagus will be diagnosed with esophageal adenocarcinoma in their lifetime.

OBSERVATIONS

Barrett esophagus affects approximately 2.3% to 8.3% of people with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and approximately 1.2% to 5.6% of people without GERD. Characteristics associated with Barrett esophagus include older age (prevalence of approximately 1.1% in individuals older than 50 years compared with 0.3% in those 50 years or younger), male sex, and smoking (prevalence of approximately 12% in people who smoke cigarettes compared with 1.1% in those who do not smoke cigarettes). The histopathology of Barrett esophagus progresses from metaplasia to dysplasia and, without treatment, can progress to adenocarcinoma. People with Barrett esophagus have approximately a 0.2% to 0.5% annual rate of developing esophageal adenocarcinoma. Management of Barrett esophagus primarily consists of acid-suppressive medications to reduce underlying GERD symptoms and surveillance endoscopy every 3 to 5 years. In patients with Barrett esophagus and dysplasia or early cancer, endoscopic therapy consisting of resection and ablation successfully treats 80% to 90% of patients.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Barrett esophagus affects approximately 5% of people in the US and approximately 1% worldwide and is associated with an increased risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma. First-line therapy for Barrett esophagus consists of proton-pump inhibitors for control of reflux symptoms, but their role in chemoprevention is unclear. Surveillance with upper endoscopy is recommended by practice guidelines to monitor for progression to esophageal adenocarcinoma, but randomized clinical trials are lacking.

Quantification of TFF3 expression from a non-endoscopic device predicts clinically relevant Barrett's oesophagus by machine learning

BACKGROUND

Intestinal metaplasia (IM) is pre-neoplastic with variable cancer risk. Cytosponge-TFF3 test can detect IM. We aimed to 1) assess whether quantitative TFF3 scores can distinguish clinically relevant Barrett's oesophagus (BO) (C≥1 or M≥3) from focal IM pathologies (C<1, M<3 or IM of gastro-oesophageal junction); 2) whether TFF3 counts can be automated to inform clinical practice.

METHODS

Patients from the Barett's oEsophagus Screening Trial 2 (BEST2) case-control and BEST3 randomised trials were used. For aim 1, TFF3-positive glands were scored manually and correlated with clinical diagnosis. For aim 2, machine learning approach was used to obtain TFF3 count and logistic regression with cross-validation was trained on the BEST2 dataset (n = 529) and tested in the BEST3 dataset (n = 158).

FINDINGS

Patients with clinically relevant BO had higher mean TFF3 gland count compared to focal IM pathologies (mean difference 4.14; 95% confidence interval, CI 2.76-5.52, p < 0.001). The mean class-balanced validation accuracy was 0.84 (95% CI 0.77-0.90), and precision of 0.95 (95% CI 0.87-1.00) for detecting clinically relevant BO. Applying this model on BEST3 showed precision of 0.91 (95% CI 0.85-0.97) for focal IM pathologies with a class-balanced accuracy of 0.77 (95% CI 0.69-0.84). Using this model, 55% of patients (87/158) in BEST3 would fall below the threshold for clinically relevant BO and could avoid gastroscopy, while only missing 5.1% of patients (8/158).

INTERPRETATION

Automated Cytosponge-TFF3 gland quantification may enable thresholds to be set to trigger confirmatory gastroscopy to minimize overdiagnosis of focal IM pathologies with very low cancer-associated risk.

FUNDING

Cancer Research UK (12088/16893 and C14478/A21047).

Prediction of neoplastic progression in Barrett's esophagus using nanoscale nuclear architecture mapping: a pilot study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Nanoscale nuclear architecture mapping (nanoNAM), an optical coherence tomography-derived approach, is capable of detecting with nanoscale sensitivity structural alterations in the chromatin of epithelial cell nuclei at risk for malignant transformation. Because these alterations predate the development of dysplasia, we aimed to use nanoNAM to identify patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE) who might progress to high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC).

METHODS

This is a nested case-control study of 46 BE patients, of which 21 progressed to HGD/EAC over 3.7 ± 2.37 years (cases/progressors) and 25 patients who did not progress over 6.3 ± 3.1 years (control subjects/nonprogressors). The archived formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue blocks collected as part of standard clinical care at the index endoscopy were used. nanoNAM imaging was performed on a 5-μm formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded section, and each nucleus was mapped to a 3-dimensional (3D) depth-resolved optical path difference (drOPD) nuclear representation, quantifying nanoscale-sensitive alterations in the 3D nuclear architecture of the cell. Using 3D-drOPD representation of each nucleus, we computed 12 patient-level nanoNAM features summarizing the alterations in intrinsic nuclear architecture. A risk prediction model was built incorporating nanoNAM features and clinical features.

RESULTS

A statistically significant differential shift was observed in the drOPD cumulative distributions between progressors and nonprogressors. Of the 12 nanoNAM features, 6 (mean-maximum, mean-mean, mean-median, entropy-median, entropy-entropy, entropy-skewness) showed a statistically significant difference between cases and control subjects. NanoNAM features based prediction model identified progression in independent validation sets, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 80.8% ± .35% (mean ± standard error), with an increase to 82.54% ± .46% when combined with length of the BE segment.

CONCLUSIONS

NanoNAM can serve as an adjunct to histopathologic evaluation of BE patients and aid in risk stratification.

External validation of a model determining risk of neoplastic progression of Barrett's esophagus in a cohort of U.S. veterans

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in those with Barrett's esophagus (BE) is 11-fold greater than the general population. It remains unclear which BE patients are at highest risk of progression to EAC. We aimed to validate a predictive model risk-stratifying BE patients.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study at the Houston Veteran Affairs Medical Center of consecutive patients with a new diagnosis of BE from November 1990 to January 2019. Study follow-up was through February 2020. Patients were excluded if they had no follow-up EGD with esophageal biopsy sampling after the initial BE-diagnosing EGD or evidence of high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or EAC on initial EGD. We performed an external validation study of a risk model containing sex, smoking, BE length, and low-grade dysplasia (LGD) status and assessed discriminatory ability using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

Among 608 BE patients, 24 progressed to HGD/EAC. The points-based model discriminated well with an AUROC of .72 (95% confidence interval [CI], .63-.82). When categorized into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups according to published cutoffs, the AUROC was poor at .57. Restructured into low-risk versus high-risk groups, the AUROC was .72 (95% CI, .64-.80). Excluding baseline LGD did not reduce discriminatory ability (AUROC, .73; 95% CI, .64-.82).

CONCLUSIONS

This external validation provides further evidence that the model including sex, LGD status, smoking status, and BE length may help to risk stratify BE patients. A simplified version excluding LGD status and/or reducing the number of risk groups has increased utility in clinical practice without loss of discriminatory ability.

Gender differences in Barrett's esophagus and progression of disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

It is known that Barrett's esophagus (BE) and esophageal adenocarcinoma occur more commonly in men. What is unknown are the prevalence of BE and rates of neoplastic progression in women. Our aim was to determine the prevalence of Barrett's and its progression to esophageal cancer in women through systematic review and meta-analysis. A comprehensive search was conducted using PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar. Studies were included that reported prevalence rates of BE or progression rates to neoplastic disease stratified by gender. Barrett's was defined by updated criteria as salmon-colored mucosa ≥1 cm proximal to the gastroesophageal junction. Pooled rates and odds ratios (ORs) at 95% confidence interval (CI) of the prevalence of BE and its progression to neoplastic disease were calculated. Ten studies with 19,337 patients (50.6% women) reported on prevalence and six studies with 5137 patients (24.3% women) reported on neoplastic progression of disease between genders. The rate of BE in women was 1.29% ([95% CI: 0.76-2.19], I2 = 91%) compared to men at 4.66% ([95% CI: 3.31-6.53], I2 = 89%); OR: 0.33 ([95% CI: 0.27-0.42], I2 = 0%). The rate of annual progression of Barrett's to high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma was 0.62% ([95% CI: 0.22-1.75]) in women compared to 1.54% ([95% CI: 0.83-2.81], I2 = 96%) in men; OR: 0.44 ([95% CI: 0.30-0.65], I2 = 22%). This study demonstrates a 70% lower rate of prevalence and a 60% lower rate of neoplastic progression of Barrett's in women. Future BE guidelines should tailor screening and surveillance practices by gender.

Management of nondysplastic Barrett’s esophagus: When to survey? When to ablate?

Barrett’s esophagus (BE), a precursor for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), is defined as salmon-colored mucosa extending more than 1 cm proximal to the gastroesophageal junction with histological evidence of intestinal metaplasia. The actual risk of EAC in nondysplastic Barrett’s esophagus (NDBE) is low with an annual incidence of 0.3%. The mainstay in the management of NDBE is control of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) along with enrollment in surveillance programs. The current recommendation for surveillance is four-quadrant biopsies every 2 cm (or 1 cm in known or suspected dysplasia) followed by biopsy of mucosal irregularity (nodules, ulcers, or other visible lesions) performed at 3- to 5-year intervals. Challenges to surveillance include missed cancers, suboptimal adherence to surveillance guidelines, and lack of strong evidence for efficacy. There is minimal role for endoscopic eradication therapy in NDBE. The role for enhanced imaging techniques, artificial intelligence, and risk prediction models using clinical data and molecular markers is evolving.

Artificial Intelligence in the Management of Barrett’s Esophagus and Early Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

Simple Summary

Esophageal adenocarcinoma is increasing in incidence and is the most common subtype of esophageal cancer in Western societies. AI systems are currently under development and validation in many fields of gas-troenterology.

Abstract

Esophageal adenocarcinoma is increasing in incidence and is the most common subtype of esophageal cancer in Western societies. The stepwise progression of Barrett´s metaplasia to high-grade dysplasia and invasive adenocarcinoma provides an opportunity for screening and surveillance. There are important unresolved issues, which include (i) refining the definition of the screening population in order to avoid unnecessary invasive diagnostics, (ii) a more precise prediction of the (very heterogeneous) individual progression risk from metaplasia to invasive cancer in order to better tailor surveillance recommendations, (iii) improvement of the quality of endoscopy in order to reduce the high miss rate for early neoplastic lesions, and (iv) support for the diagnosis of tumor infiltration depth in order to guide treatment decisions. Artificial intelligence (AI) systems might be useful as a support to better solve the above-mentioned issues.

Diagnosis and Management of Barrett's Esophagus: An Updated ACG Guideline

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is a common condition associated with chronic gastroesophageal reflux disease. BE is the only known precursor to esophageal adenocarcinoma, a highly lethal cancer with an increasing incidence over the last 5 decades. These revised guidelines implement Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation methodology to propose recommendations for the definition and diagnosis of BE, screening for BE and esophageal adenocarcinoma, surveillance of patients with known BE, and the medical and endoscopic treatment of BE and its associated early neoplasia. Important changes since the previous iteration of this guideline include a broadening of acceptable screening modalities for BE to include nonendoscopic methods, liberalized intervals for surveillance of short-segment BE, and volume criteria for endoscopic therapy centers for BE. We recommend endoscopic eradication therapy for patients with BE and high-grade dysplasia and those with BE and low-grade dysplasia. We propose structured surveillance intervals for patients with dysplastic BE after successful ablation based on the baseline degree of dysplasia. We could not make recommendations regarding chemoprevention or use of biomarkers in routine practice due to insufficient data.

Current status of surveillance for Barrett's esophagus in Japan and the West

Prospective studies in western countries have shown that the obvious risk factors for Barrett's esophageal cancer are male sex, smoking habit, a longer length of Barrett's esophagus, and low‐grade dysplasia. However, few reports have prospectively examined risk factors for adenocarcinoma development from Barrett's esophagus in Japan. In the West, where adenocarcinoma is common among esophageal cancer, endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's esophagus every 2–5 years is recommended for early detection of adenocarcinoma. However, there is no established surveillance method in Japan. In recent years, the incidence of adenocarcinoma from long‐segment Barrett's esophagus and short‐segment Barrett's esophagus longer than 2 cm in Japan has been reported to be similar to the West. For surveillance of adenocarcinoma arising from Barrett's esophagus, recognizing the characteristics of superficial adenocarcinoma and carefully observing the entire Barrett's esophagus are needed. It has been reported that representative characteristics of Barrett's adenocarcinoma are a reddish area or a lesion located on the anterior to the right sidewall. It is necessary to establish surveillance methods for Barrett's esophagus sooner in Japan.

Progression of Barrett's esophagus, crypt dysplasia, and low-grade dysplasia diagnosed by wide-area transepithelial sampling with 3-dimensional computer-assisted analysis: a retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Wide-area transepithelial sampling with 3-dimensional computer-assisted analysis (WATS3D) is used as an adjunct to forceps biopsy sampling in Barrett's esophagus (BE). BE-associated crypt dysplasia (CD), which can be detected by WATS3D, involves crypts but not surface epithelium. The risk of neoplastic progression of CD has never been evaluated. The prognosis of WATS3D-diagnosed nondysplastic BE (NDBE) and low-grade dysplasia (LGD) is also unknown. We assessed the risk of progression of WATS3D-reported NDBE, CD, and LGD with high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC).

METHODS

We analyzed patients who underwent WATS3D in routine care. Eligible patients had 2 WATS3D ≥12 months apart. Patients were categorized by the initial WATS3D finding as NDBE, CD, or LGD. Patient-years of observation were calculated by multiplying the mean follow-up by the number of patients. Progression, defined as a subsequent finding of HGD/EAC on forceps biopsy sampling, was assessed. The crude progression rate was calculated, and Kaplan-Meier analysis compared progression rates stratified by baseline histology. Bivariate analysis identified progression risk factors.

RESULTS

Of 151,224 WATS3D cases, 43,145 (29%) had BE. Of these, 4545 patients had 2 WATS3D separated by ≥12 months. The mean follow-up was 1.97 years (range, 1.0-6.42). In patients with baseline NDBE, progression was .08% per patient-year (95% confidence interval [CI], .02%-.14%). Progression of baseline CD was significantly higher, at 1.42% per patient-year (95% CI, 0%-3.01%). For baseline LGD, progression was 5.79% per patient-year (95% CI, 1.02%-10.55%). Other risk factors for progression were increasing age and BE segment length.

CONCLUSIONS

NDBE found on WATS3D has a very low risk of progression. CD reported on WATS3D appears to be a neoplastic precursor lesion, with a risk of progression in this study significantly higher than NDBE but lower than LGD. The clinical utility of CD requires further investigation.

The Top-Cited Articles With a Focus on Barrett's Esophagus: A Bibliometric Analysis

Background

Because the number of published literatures with a focus on Barrett's esophagus (BE) that researchers must be familiar with has quickly increased in recent years, the significance of selective searching and summarization of bibliometrics is also increasing. It is, thus, very important to find a method that can quickly and effectively search the most influential medical science articles. Therefore, the objective of this study was to use bibliometric analysis to assess and characterize the most influential articles involving BE research.

Methods

Publications on BE research were retrieved from the Web of Science Core Collection using the term “Barrett's esophagus.” Microsoft Excel 2016 and VOSviewer were used to further analyzed each article's citation number, title, journal, country, organization, category, and authorship.

Results

On 14 June 2020, 5,389 records of BE research published until 2020 were retrieved. The citation number of the top 100 most-cited articles ranged from 208 to 824. Gastroenterology published 29 articles, which accounted for the largest number of top 100 articles (29%); however, among the top 500 most-cited articles, the American Journal of Gastroenterology published the largest number. Of the top-cited articles, the USA was by far the leading country in BE research and contributed most of the articles (n = 72). Among the academic institutions that produced the top 100 most-cited articles, the University of Washington (n = 12) was dominant. Sharma Prateek (n = 6) authored the largest number of most-cited articles. The USA contributed the most articles per year, and the time trend of the number of top 500 articles increased by 38-fold between 1987 and 2000. “Adenocarcinoma,” “high-grade dysplasia,” “cancer,” “diagnosis,” and “dysplasia” were the most influential keywords.

Conclusions

This study not only presents a historical perspective but also facilitated the recognition of the significant advances in this area by researchers. Furthermore, the current study serves as a guide in decision clinical practice decision-making and provides a valuable reference for further research.

Use of a Cytosponge biomarker panel to prioritise endoscopic Barrett's oesophagus surveillance: a cross-sectional study followed by a real-world prospective pilot

BACKGROUND

Endoscopic surveillance is recommended for patients with Barrett's oesophagus because, although the progression risk is low, endoscopic intervention is highly effective for high-grade dysplasia and cancer. However, repeated endoscopy has associated harms and access has been limited during the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to evaluate the role of a non-endoscopic device (Cytosponge) coupled with laboratory biomarkers and clinical factors to prioritise endoscopy for Barrett's oesophagus.

METHODS

We first conducted a retrospective, multicentre, cross-sectional study in patients older than 18 years who were having endoscopic surveillance for Barrett's oesophagus (with intestinal metaplasia confirmed by TFF3 and a minimum Barrett's segment length of 1 cm [circumferential or tongues by the Prague C and M criteria]). All patients had received the Cytosponge and confirmatory endoscopy during the BEST2 (ISRCTN12730505) and BEST3 (ISRCTN68382401) clinical trials, from July 7, 2011, to April 1, 2019 (UK Clinical Research Network Study Portfolio 9461). Participants were divided into training (n=557) and validation (n=334) cohorts to identify optimal risk groups. The biomarkers evaluated were overexpression of p53, cellular atypia, and 17 clinical demographic variables. Endoscopic biopsy diagnosis of high-grade dysplasia or cancer was the primary endpoint. Clinical feasibility of a decision tree for Cytosponge triage was evaluated in a real-world prospective cohort from Aug 27, 2020 (DELTA; ISRCTN91655550; n=223), in response to COVID-19 and the need to provide an alternative to endoscopic surveillance.

FINDINGS

The prevalence of high-grade dysplasia or cancer determined by the current gold standard of endoscopic biopsy was 17% (92 of 557 patients) in the training cohort and 10% (35 of 344) in the validation cohort. From the new biomarker analysis, three risk groups were identified: high risk, defined as atypia or p53 overexpression or both on Cytosponge; moderate risk, defined by the presence of a clinical risk factor (age, sex, and segment length); and low risk, defined as Cytosponge-negative and no clinical risk factors. The risk of high-grade dysplasia or intramucosal cancer in the high-risk group was 52% (68 of 132 patients) in the training cohort and 41% (31 of 75) in the validation cohort, compared with 2% (five of 210) and 1% (two of 185) in the low-risk group, respectively. In the real-world setting, Cytosponge results prospectively identified 39 (17%) of 223 patients as high risk (atypia or p53 overexpression, or both) requiring endoscopy, among whom the positive predictive value was 31% (12 of 39 patients) for high-grade dysplasia or intramucosal cancer and 44% (17 of 39) for any grade of dysplasia.

INTERPRETATION

Cytosponge atypia, p53 overexpression, and clinical risk factors (age, sex, and segment length) could be used to prioritise patients for endoscopy. Further investigation could validate their use in clinical practice and lead to a substantial reduction in endoscopy procedures compared with current surveillance pathways.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, Innovate UK.

Magnitude and Time-Trend Analysis of Postendoscopy Esophageal Adenocarcinoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Identification of postendoscopy esophageal adenocarcinoma (PEEC) among Barrett's esophagus (BE) patients presents an opportunity to improve survival of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). We aimed to estimate the proportion of PEEC within the first year after BE diagnosis.

METHODS

Multiple databases (Medline, Embase, Scopus, and Cochrane databases) were searched until September 2020 for original studies with at least 1-year follow-up evaluation that reported EAC and/or high-grade dysplasia (HGD) in the first year after index endoscopy in nondysplastic BE, low-grade dysplasia, or indefinite dysplasia. The proportions of PEEC defined using EAC alone and EAC+HGD were calculated by dividing EAC or EAC+HGD in the first year over the total number of EAC or EAC+HGD, respectively.

RESULTS

We included 52 studies with 145,726 patients and a median follow-up period of 4.8 years. The proportion of PEEC (EAC) was 21% (95% CI, 13-31) and PEEC (EAC+HGD) was 26% (95% CI, 19-34). Among studies with nondysplastic BE only, the PEEC (EAC) proportion was 17% (95% CI, 11-23) and PEEC (EAC+HGD) was 14% (95% CI, 8-19). Among studies with 5 or more years of follow-up evaluation, the PEEC (EAC) proportion was 10% and PEEC (EAC+HGD) was 19%. Meta-regression analysis showed a strong inverse relationship between PEEC and incident EAC (P < .001). The PEEC (EAC) proportion increased from 5% in studies published before 2000 to 30% after 2015. Substantial heterogeneity was observed for most analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

PEEC accounts for a high proportion of HGD/EACs and is proportional to reduction in incident EAC. Using best endoscopic techniques now and performing future research on improving neoplasia detection through implementation of quality measures and educational tools is needed to reduce PEEC.

Evolution and progression of Barrett's oesophagus to oesophageal cancer

Cancer cells are shaped through an evolutionary process of DNA mutation, cell selection and population expansion. Early steps in this process are driven by a set of mutated driver genes and structural alterations to the genome through copy number gains or losses. Oesophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) and the pre-invasive tissue, Barrett's oesophagus (BE), provide an ideal example in which to observe and study this evolution. BE displays early genomic instability, specifically in copy number changes that may later be observed in EAC. Furthermore, these early changes result in patterns of progression (that is, 'born bad', gradual or catastrophic) that may help to describe the evolution of EAC. As only a small proportion of patients with BE will go on to develop cancer, a better understanding of these patterns and the resulting genomic changes should improve early detection in EAC and may provide clues for the evolution of cancer more broadly.

Trends and projections in the incidence of oesophageal cancer in the Netherlands: An age-period-cohort analysis from 1989 to 2041

In Western populations, the incidence of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) has been declining, whereas the incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) has been increasing. Our study examines temporal trends in the incidence of oesophageal cancer in the Netherlands between 1989 and 2016, in addition to predicting future trends through 2041. Data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry and Statistics Netherlands were collected to obtain incidence trends of OSCC and OAC for the period 1989 to 2016. Age‐period‐cohort (APC) modelling was used to estimate the contribution of age, calendar period and birth cohort on the observed incidence trends. To predict the future numbers of new cases of both OSCC and OAC from 2017 to 2041, log‐linear APC models were fitted to the trends of 1989 to 2016. The age‐standardised incidence rates of OSCC have decreased slightly for men and increased slightly for women. In contrast, a marked increase in the incidence of OAC was observed, ranging from 2.8 per 100 000 persons in 1989 to 10.1 in 2016. This increase in OAC incidence was more prominent in men, and it will result in an increased risk of OAC for successive generations. Future projections indicate that the incidence of OAC will further increase to 13.1 per 100 000 persons in 2037 to 2041, meaning that there will be 13 259 cases of OAC in 2037 to 2041, as compared to 9386 diagnoses in 2017 to 2021. The changing epidemiologic trends in oesophageal cancer in the Netherlands should be reflected in the development of prevention, early detection and treatment strategies.

What's new?

The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) is on the rise in Western countries. Better understanding of this trend could facilitate critical improvements in OAC prevention, early detection, and treatment strategies. Here, the authors investigated trends in OAC incidence from 1989 to 2016 for successive birth cohorts in the Netherlands. OAC incidence was found to have increased significantly since 1989, with risk rising most noticeably in men. Analyses through 2037‐2041 predict continued growth in OAC cases. The findings highlight the importance of promoting measures to prevent esophageal cancer, particularly those aimed at controlling modifiable risk factors, such as obesity and smoking.

Systematic review with meta-analysis: neoplasia detection rate and post-endoscopy Barrett's neoplasia in Barrett's oesophagus

BACKGROUND

Neoplasia detection rate, the proportion of Barrett's oesophagus patients with high-grade dysplasia or oesophageal adenocarcinoma detected at index surveillance endoscopy has been proposed as a quality metric. However, the correlation between neoplasia detection rate and a clinically relevant outcome like post-endoscopy Barrett's neoplasia remains unknown. Post-endoscopy Barrett's neoplasia refers to the rate of high-grade dysplasia or oesophageal adenocarcinoma on repeat endoscopy within one year of an index screening examination revealing non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus or low-grade dysplasia.

AIM

To assess correlation between neoplasia detection rate and post-endoscopy Barrett's neoplasia.

METHODS

We performed a systematic search of multiple databases from date of inception to June 2021 to identify cohort studies reporting both neoplasia detection rate and post-endoscopy Barrett's neoplasia. Data from each study were pooled using a random effects model, and their correlation assessed using meta-regression. Heterogeneity was assessed and a priori planned subgroup analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Ten studies with 27 894 patients with Barrett's oesophagus were included. The pooled neoplasia detection rate and post-endoscopy Barrett's neoplasia were 5.0% (95% CI: 3.4%-7.1%, I²  = 97%) and 19.6% (95% CI: 10.1%-34.7%, I²  = 96%), respectively. Meta-regression revealed a statistically significant inverse relationship between the two variables (coefficient -3.50, 95% CI: -4.63 to -2.37, P < 0.01). With every 1% increase of neoplasia detection rate, post-endoscopy Barrett's neoplasia decreased by 3.50%. Heterogeneity was high despite adjusting for study quality and performing several subgroup analyses.

CONCLUSION

We observed a statistically significant inverse correlation between neoplasia detection rate and post-endoscopy Barrett's neoplasia. Additional studies are needed to further validate this correlation.

Neoplastic and pre-neoplastic lesions of the oesophagus and gastro-oesophageal junction

Oesophageal and gastro-oesophageal junction (GOJ) neoplasms, and their predisposing conditions, may be encountered by the practicing pathologist both as biopsy samples and as surgical specimens in daily practice. Changes in incidence of oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas (such as a decrease in western countries) and in oesophageal and GOJ adenocarcinomas (such as a sharp increase in western countries) are being reported globally. New modes of treatment have changed our histologic reports as specific aspects must be detailed such as in post endoscopic resections or with regards to post neo-adjuvant therapy tumour regression grades. The main aim of this overview is therefore to provide an up-to-date, easily available and clear diagnostic approach to neoplastic and pre-neoplastic conditions of the oesophagus and GOJ, based on the most recent available guidelines and literature.

Not all low grade dysplasia in Barrett's oesophagus is the same: using specific histological criteria in predicting progression to neoplasia

Barrett's oesophagus with low grade dysplasia (LGD) is a risk factor for progression to high grade dysplasia (HGD) and oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC); however, only a subgroup of LGD will progress. We used a combination of specific histological criteria to identify patients with LGD who are more likely to progress to HGD or OAC. LGD slides from 38 patients within the progressor group (PG) and 17 patients from the non-progressor group (NPG) were obtained and reviewed by two expert GI pathologists, to be stratified by the same four specific histological variables identified by Ten Kate et al.: loss of surface maturation, mucin depletion, nuclear enlargement, and increase of mitosis. After review of LGD slides by two expert GI pathologists, 27 suitable patients were identified. Of these 27 patients there was a higher proportion of patients from the PG with all four specific criteria reported, compared to the NPG: 14 (78%) vs 3 (33%) p=0.0394. Patients with all four specific criteria were more likely to progress compared to those who had one or less specific criteria reported (OR 7, 95% CI 1.1848-41.3585, p=0.032). A combination of ≥2 or ≥3 specific histological criteria was not prognostic. Patients with a combination of all four specific histological criteria (loss of surface maturation, mucin depletion, nuclear enlargement, and increase of mitosis) were associated with greater progression from LGD to HGD or OAC in Barrett's oesophagus.

Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and risk of neoplastic progression in patients with Barrett's esophagus

BACKGROUND

Patient's with Barrett's esophagus (BE) are at risk of progression to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was found to be a predictor of poor prognosis in patients with EAC; however, its performance in premalignant esophageal lesions is vague. We aimed to evaluate the utility of NLR as a predictor of histologic progression in patients with BE. METHODS : A prospective cohort of patients with proven BE in a tertiary referral center was retrospectively analyzed. All biopsies were reviewed by an expert gastrointestinal pathologist. The discriminatory capacity of NLR was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve analysis and Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

324 patients (mean age 62.3 years, 241 [74.4 %] males) were included in the final analysis. Overall, 13 patients demonstrated histologic progression to neoplasia over a mean follow-up of 3.7 years (progression risk 1.0 % per year). The AUC of NLR for progression to high grade dysplasia (HGD) or EAC was 0.88 (95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.83 - 0.96), and baseline NLR was associated with a 3-fold increase of progression to HGD and EAC during follow-up (hazard ratio [HR] 3.2, 95 %CI 1.5 - 5.8; P < 0.001). Notably, in a subgroup analysis of patients with nondysplastic BE (NDBE) at presentation, NLR was also a risk factor for histologic progression (HR 2.4, 95 %CI 1.7 - 3.4; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

NLR predicted histologic progression in patients with BE. Patients with NDBE and NLR above 2.4 can be considered for specific surveillance programs with shorter intervals between sessions.

Barrett's esophagus surveillance in a prospective Dutch multi-center community-based cohort of 985 patients demonstrates low risk of neoplastic progression

Background and Aims

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is accompanied by an increased risk of developing esophageal cancer. Accurate risk‐stratification is warranted to improve endoscopic surveillance. Most data available on risk factors is derived from tertiary care centers or from cohorts with limited surveillance time or surveillance quality. The aim of this study was to assess endoscopic and clinical risk factors for progression to high‐grade dysplasia (HGD) or esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in a large prospective cohort of BE patients from community hospitals supported by an overarching infrastructure to ensure optimal surveillance quality.

Methods

A well‐defined prospective multicenter cohort study was initiated in six community hospitals in the Amsterdam region in 2003. BE patients were identified by PALGA search and included in a prospective surveillance program with a single endoscopist performing all endoscopies at each hospital. Planning and data collection was performed by experienced research nurses who attended all endoscopies. Endpoint was progression to HGD/EAC.

Results

Nine hundred eighty‐five patients were included for analysis. During median follow‐up of 7.9 years (IQR 4.1–12.5) 67 patients were diagnosed with HGD (n = 28) or EAC (n = 39), progression rate 0.78% per patient‐year. As a clinical risk factor age at time of endoscopy was associated with neoplastic progression (HR 1.05; 95% CI 1.03–1.08). Maximum Barrett length and low‐grade dysplasia (LGD) at baseline were endoscopic predictors of progression (HR 1.15; 95% CI 1.09–1.21 and HR 2.36; 95% CI 1.29–4.33).

Conclusion

Risk of progression to HGD/EAC in a large, prospective, community‐based Barrett's cohort was low. Barrett's length, LGD and age were important risk factors for progression.

(www.trialregister.nl NTR1789)

How extent of Barrett's metaplasia influences the risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review will focus on how the extent of Barrett's metaplasia influences the risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). More specifically, this review will discuss the concepts of long and short-segment Barrett's metaplasia and irregular Z line as they relate to EAC risk.

RECENT FINDINGS

The Prague classification can standardize reporting of Barrett's metaplasia. Recent literature has found significant associations between the length of Barrett's metaplasia and increased progression risk to EAC in multiple geographically distinct populations. Length of Barrett's metaplasia has been incorporated into the Progression of Barrett's esophagus (PIB) model that can predict individualized life-time risks of progression. The risk of malignant transformation appears to be very low in patients with irregular Z line.

SUMMARY

Length of Barrett's metaplasia has emerged as an important predictor that can influence the risk of EAC and should be reported using the Prague classification. The PIB model, if further validated, could help a practicing gastroenterologist to inform patients with Barrett's metaplasia about their personal risk of progression to tailor surveillance intervals. Current guidelines do not recommend surveillance in patients with irregular Z line, but careful examination is recommended.

Economic evaluation of Cytosponge®-trefoil factor 3 for Barrett esophagus: A cost-utility analysis of randomised controlled trial data

BACKGROUND

Esophageal adenocarcinoma has a very poor prognosis unless detected early. The Cytosponge-trefoil factor 3 (TFF3) is a non-endoscopic test for Barrett esophagus, a precursor of esophageal adenocarcinoma. Randomised controlled trial data from the BEST3 trial has shown that an offer of Cytosponge-TFF3 in the primary care setting in England to individuals on medication for acid reflux increases detection of Barrett esophagus 10-fold over a year compared with standard care. This is an economic evaluation of Cytosponge-TFF3 screening versus usual care using data from the BEST3 trial which took place between 20th March 2017 and 21st March 2019.

METHODS

A Markov model with a one-year cycle-length and a lifetime time horizon was created, adapting previous modeling work on Cytosponge screening. The impact of one round of Cytosponge screening was modelled in patients with a median age of 69 years (based on BEST3 trial population). Cost-effectiveness was expressed as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted on model parameters.

FINDINGS

Per person, one round of Cytosponge-TFF3 screening, including confirmatory endoscopy and treatment, in the intervention arm costed £82 more than usual care and generated an additional 0.015 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) at an ICER of £5,500 per QALY gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis gave an ICER of £5,405 (95% CI -£6,791 to £17,600). The average QALY gain per person is small because the majority of patients in the model will not develop BE and therefore will have no resulting change in their utility, however the small proportion of patients who are identified with BE dysplasia or cancer derive large benefit. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per QALY, the probability that Cytosponge-TFF3 was cost-effective was over 90%.

INTERPRETATION

Using data from a pragmatic randomised trial, one-off Cytosponge-TFF3 screen is cost-effective relative to usual care for patients with gastro-esophageal reflux disease, despite relatively low uptake and an older population in this trial setting than previously modelled. Improving Cytosponge-TFF3 uptake and targeting younger patients is likely to further improve cost-effectiveness.

Global burden and epidemiology of Barrett oesophagus and oesophageal cancer

Oesophageal cancer is a global health problem; in 2018 there were more than 572,000 people newly diagnosed with oesophageal cancer worldwide. There are two main histological subtypes of oesophageal cancer, oesophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) and oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), and there has been a dramatic shift in its epidemiology. While the incidence of EAC and its precursor lesion, Barrett oesophagus, has increased in Western populations over the past four decades, the incidence of ESCC has declined in most parts of the world over the same period. ESCC still accounts for the vast majority of all oesophageal cancer cases diagnosed worldwide each year. Prognosis for patients with oesophageal cancer is strongly related to stage at diagnosis. As most patients are diagnosed with late-stage disease, overall 5-year survival for oesophageal cancer remains <20%. Knowledge of epidemiology and risk factors for oesophageal cancer is essential for public health and clinical decisions about risk stratification, screening and prevention. The goal of this Review is to establish the current epidemiology of oesophageal cancer, with a particular focus on the Western world and the increasing incidence of EAC and Barrett oesophagus.

Esophageal Cancer: An Updated Review

The incidence of esophageal cancer (EC) is on the rise. With the distinct subtypes of adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma comes specific risk factors, and as a result, people of certain regions of the world can be more prone to a subtype. For example, squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus has the highest incidence in eastern Africa and eastern Asia, with smoking being a major risk factor, whereas adenocarcinoma is more prevalent in North America and western Europe, with gastroesophageal reflux disease being a leading risk factor. With that being said, adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma have similar and unfortunately poor survival rates, partly because EC is prone to early metastasis given that the esophagus does not have a serosa, as well as the superficial nature of its lymphatics compared with the rest of the gastrointestinal tract. This makes early detection of the utmost importance, and certain patients have been shown to have the benefit of screening/surveillance endoscopies, including those with Barrett's esophagus, lye-induced/caustic strictures, tylosis, and Peutz-Jeghers syndrome. Until treatments significantly improve, identifying EC at the earliest stage will have the best success for patient outcomes, and further elucidation of its pathogenesis and risk factors may lead to identifying other high-risk groups that should be screened.