Model for end-stage liver disease and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score as predictors of pretransplantation disease severity, posttransplantation outcome, and resource utilization in United Network for Organ Sharing status 2A patients

Navigating Complex Challenges: Preoperative Assessment and Surgical Strategies for Liver Resection in Patients with Fibrosis or Cirrhosis

This review explores the intricacies of evaluating cirrhotic patients for liver resection while exploring how to extend surgical intervention to those typically excluded by the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) criteria guidelines by focusing on the need for robust preoperative assessment and innovative surgical strategies. Cirrhosis presents unique challenges and complicates liver resection due to the altered physiology of the liver, portal hypertension, and liver decompensation. The primary objective of this review is to discuss the current approaches in assessing the suitability of cirrhotic patients for liver resection and aims to identify which patients outside of the BCLC criteria can safely undergo liver resection by highlighting emerging strategies that can improve surgical safety and outcomes.

Donor-recipient race-ethnicity concordance and patient survival after liver transplantation

INTRODUCTION

We assessed the association between patient survival after liver transplantation (LT) and donor-recipient race-ethnicity (R/E) concordance.

METHODS

The Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) was retrospectively analyzed using data collected between 2002 and 2019. Only adults without history of prior organ transplant and recipients of LT alone were included. The primary outcome was patient survival. Donors and recipients were categorized into five R/E groups: White/Caucasian, African American/Black, Hispanic/Latino, Asian, and Others. Statistical analyses were performed using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox Proportional Hazards models, adjusting for donor and recipient covariates.

RESULTS

85,427 patients were included. Among all the R/E groups, Asian patients had the highest 5-year survival (81.3%; 95% CI = 79.9-82.7), while African American/Black patients had the lowest (71.4%; 95% CI = 70.3-72.6) (P < 0.001). Lower survival rates were observed in recipients who received discordant R/E grafts irrespective of their R/E group. The fully adjusted hazard ratio for death was statistically significant in African American/Black (aHR 1.07-1.18-1.31; P < 0.01) and in White∕Caucasian patients (aHR 1.00-1.04-1.07; P = 0.03) in the presence of donor-recipient R/E discordance.

CONCLUSION

Disparities in post-LT outcomes might be influenced by biological factors in addition to well-known social determinants of health.

A novel prognostic model to predict mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure in intensive care unit

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) implies high short-term mortality rates and usually requires intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Proper prognosis for these patients is crucial for early referral for liver transplantation. The superiority of CLIF-C ACLF score in Asian patients with ACLF admitted to an ICU remains inconclusive when compared to other scoring systems. The purpose of the study is (i) to compare the predictive performance of original MELD, MELD-Lactate, CLIF-C ACLF, CLIF-C ACLF-Lactate, and APACHE-II scores for short-term mortality assessment. (ii) to build and validate a novel scoring system and to compare its predictive performance to that of the original five scores. Two hundred sixty-five consecutive cirrhotic patients with ACLF who were admitted to our ICU were enrolled. The prognostic values for mortality were assessed by ROC analysis. A novel model was developed and internally validated using fivefold cross-validation. Alcohol abuse was identified as the primary etiology of cirrhosis. The AUROC of the five prognostic scores were not significantly superior to each other in predicting 1-month and 3-month mortality. The newly developed prognostic model, incorporating age, alveolar-arterial gradient (A-a gradient), BUN, total bilirubin level, INR, and HE grades, exhibited significantly improved performance in predicting 1-month and 3-month mortality with AUROC of 0.863 and 0.829, respectively, as compared to the original five prognostic scores. The novel ACLF model seems to be superior to the original five scores in predicting short-term mortality in ACLF patients admitted to an ICU. Further rigorous validation is required.

Arterial blood pressure waveform in liver transplant surgery possesses variability of morphology reflecting recipients' acuity and predicting short term outcomes

We investigated clinical information underneath the beat-to-beat fluctuation of the arterial blood pressure (ABP) waveform morphology. We proposed the Dynamical Diffusion Map algorithm (DDMap) to quantify the variability of morphology.  The underlying physiology could be the compensatory mechanisms involving complex interactions between various physiological mechanisms to regulate the cardiovascular system. As a liver transplant surgery contains distinct periods, we investigated its clinical behavior in different surgical steps. Our study used DDmap algorithm, based on unsupervised manifold learning, to obtain a quantitative index for the beat-to-beat variability of morphology. We examined the correlation between the variability of ABP morphology and disease acuity as indicated by Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores, the postoperative laboratory data, and 4 early allograft failure (EAF) scores. Among the 85 enrolled patients, the variability of morphology obtained during the presurgical phase was best correlated with MELD-Na scores. The neohepatic phase variability of morphology was associated with EAF scores as well as postoperative bilirubin levels, international normalized ratio, aspartate aminotransferase levels, and platelet count. Furthermore, variability of morphology presents more associations with the above clinical conditions than the common BP measures and their BP variability indices. The variability of morphology obtained during the presurgical phase is indicative of patient acuity, whereas those during the neohepatic phase are indicative of short-term surgical outcomes.

The Evolution of Redo Liver Transplantation Over 35 Years: Analysis of 654 Consecutive Adult Liver Retransplants at a Single Center

OBJECTIVE

To examine liver retransplantation (ReLT) over 35 years at a single center.

BACKGROUND

Despite the durability of liver transplantation (LT), graft failure affects up to 40% of LT recipients.

METHODS

All adult ReLTs from 1984 to 2021 were analyzed. Comparisons were made between ReLTs in the pre versus post-model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) eras and between ReLTs and primary-LTs in the modern era. Multivariate analysis was used for prognostic modeling.

RESULTS

Six hundred fifty-four ReLTs were performed in 590 recipients. There were 372 pre-MELD ReLTs and 282 post-MELD ReLTs. Of the ReLT recipients, 89% had one previous LT, whereas 11% had ≥2. Primary nonfunction was the most common indication in the pre-MELD era (33%) versus recurrent disease (24%) in the post-MELD era. Post-MELD ReLT recipients were older (53 vs 48, P = 0.001), had higher MELD scores (35 vs 31, P = 0.01), and had more comorbidities. However, post-MELD ReLT patients had superior 1, 5, and 10-year survival compared with pre-MELD ReLT (75%, 60%, and 43% vs 53%, 43%, and 35%, respectively, P < 0.001) and lower in-hospital mortality and rejection rates. Notably, in the post-MELD era, the MELD score did not affect survival. We identified the following risk factors for early mortality (≤12 months after ReLT): coronary artery disease, obesity, ventilatory support, older recipient age, and longer pre-ReLT hospital stay.

CONCLUSIONS

This represents the largest single-center ReLT report to date. Despite the increased acuity and complexity of ReLT patients, post-MELD era outcomes have improved. With careful patient selection, these results support the efficacy and survival benefit of ReLT in an acuity-based allocation environment.

Baseline Severity and Inflammation Would Influence the Effect of Simvastatin on Clinical Outcomes in Cirrhosis Patients

BACKGROUND

Simvastatin administration to decompensated cirrhosis patients improved Child-Pugh (CP) at the end of a safety trial (EST).

AIM

To evaluate whether simvastatin reduces cirrhosis severity through a secondary analysis of the safety trial.

METHODS

Thirty patients CP class (CPc) CPc A (n = 6), CPc B (n = 22), and CPc C (n = 2) received simvastatin for one year.

PRIMARY ENDPOINT

cirrhosis severity. Secondary endpoints: health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and hospitalizations for cirrhosis complications.

RESULTS

Cirrhosis severity decreased baseline versus EST only across CP score (7.3 ± 1.3 versus 6.7 ± 1.7, P = 0.041), and CPc: 12 patients lessened from CPc B to CPc A, and three patients increased from CPc A to CPc B (P = 0.029). Due to cirrhosis severity changes and differences in clinical outcomes, 15 patients completed the trial as CPc A_EST and another 15 as CPc B/C. At baseline, CPc A_EST showed greater albumin and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations than CPc B/C (P = 0.036 and P = 0.028, respectively). Comparing EST versus baseline, only in CPc A_EST, there was a reduction in white-cell blood (P = 0.012), neutrophils (P = 0.029), monocytes (P = 0.035), and C-reactive protein (P = 0.046); an increase in albumin (P = 0.011); and a recovery in HRQoL (P < 0.030). Finally, admissions for cirrhosis complications decreased in CPc A_EST versus CPc B/C (P = 0.017).

CONCLUSIONS

Simvastatin would reduce cirrhosis severity only in CPc B at baseline in a suitable protein and lipid milieu, possibly due to its anti-inflammatory effects. Furthermore, only in CPc A_EST would improve HRQoL and reduce admissions by cirrhosis complications. However, as these outcomes were not primary endpoints, they require validation.

Recipient Survival after Orthotopic Liver Transplantation: Interpretable Machine Learning Survival Tree Algorithm for Patient-Specific Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Elucidating contributors affecting liver transplant survival is paramount. Current methods offer crude global group outcomes. To refine patient-specific mortality probability estimation and to determine covariate interaction using recipient and donor data, we generated a survival tree algorithm, Recipient Survival After Orthotopic Liver Transplantation (ReSOLT), using United Network Organ Sharing (UNOS) transplant data.

STUDY DESIGN

The UNOS database was queried for liver transplants in patients ≥18 years old between 2000 and 2021. Preoperative factors were evaluated with stepwise logistic regression; 43 significant factors were used in survival tree modeling. Graft survival of <7 days was excluded. The data were split into training and testing sets and further validated with 10-fold cross-validation. Survival tree pruning and model selection was achieved based on Akaike information criterion and log-likelihood values. Log-rank pairwise comparisons between subgroups and estimated survival probabilities were calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 122,134 liver transplant patients were included for modeling. Multivariable logistic regression (area under the curve = 0.742, F1 = 0.822) and survival tree modeling returned 8 significant recipient survival factors: recipient age, donor age, recipient primary payment, recipient hepatitis C status, recipient diabetes, recipient functional status at registration and at transplantation, and deceased donor pulmonary infection. Twenty subgroups consisting of combinations of these factors were identified with distinct Kaplan-Meier survival curves (p < 0.001 among all by log rank test) with 5- and 10-year survival probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

Survival trees are a flexible and effective approach to understand the effects and interactions of covariates on survival. Individualized survival probability following liver transplant is possible with ReSOLT, allowing for more coherent patient and family counseling and prediction of patient outcome using both recipient and donor factors.

AIMS65 and PALBI Scores as Predictors of Six Months’ Mortality in Cirrhotic Patients with Acute Variceal Bleeding

Background & Aims:

Bleeding gastroesophageal varices are a cause of high mortality among cirrhotic patients. We aimed to investigate late mortality predictors and prognostic models using easily verified factors at admission in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB).

Methods:

Between January 2020 and June 2020, 142 patients with AVB from Tanta university hospital were included. Investigating multiple prognostic models was done using multiple logistic regression after identifying significant predictors of 6 months' mortality. Mortality prediction accuracy was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve.

Results:

The 6 months’ overall mortality rate was 31% (44 patients had died). AIMS56, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) grade C and MELD scores were significantly higher among non survivors (p<0.001) while Platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) was significantly more negative among survivors (P=0.001). Hepatocellular carcinoma was not significantly related to the mortality (p =0.364). Univariate analysis showed that high CTP, MELD, AIMS65 and PALBI scores were predictors of mortality and associated with decreased survival with high sensitivity and low specificity; while multivariate analysis showed that only AIMS56 was independently associated with mortality (p 0.004).

Conclusion:

CTP, MELD, AIMS65 and PALBI scores are simple, bed side risk scores that can be used for the prediction of 6 months’ mortality after AVB in cirrhotic patients with high sensitivities and lower specificities.

Role of Serum Cystatin C as a Diagnostic Tool for Renal Function in Cirrhotic Patients

Background:

Assessment of cystatin C levels could be valuable in the early detection of renal dysfunction because they increase faster than the creatinine levels as the GFR decreases. The aim of this work was to evaluate serum cystatin C as a diagnostic tool for renal dysfunction in cirrhotic patients with and without hepatorenal syndrome (HRS).

Methods:

This case-control study was conducted on 60 patients from the Tropical Medicine Department of Tanta University Hospitals and 10 people served as healthy control volunteers. Serum cystatin C was measured in the three groups.

Results:

A significant difference was observed among the three groups as cystatin C was higher in patients with HRS compared to the cirrhotic group and healthy controls.

Conclusion:

Serum cystatin C is a good predictor for hepatorenal syndrome with a good correlation with serum creatinine, blood urea, GFR, and creatinine clearance.

Liver transplant allocation policies and outcomes in United States: A comprehensive review

Liver transplant allocation policies in the United States has evolved over 3 decades. The donor liver organs are matched, allocated and procured by the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network which is administered by the United Network of Organ Sharing (UNOS), a not-for-profit organization governed by the United States human health services. We reviewed the evolution of liver transplant allocation policies. Prior to 2002, UNOS used Child-Turcotte-Pugh score to list and stratify patients for liver transplantation (LT). After 2002, UNOS changed its allocation policy based on model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. The serum sodium is the independent indicator of mortality risk in patients with chronic liver disease. The priority assignment of MELD-sodium score resulted in LT and prevented mortality on waitlist. MELD-Sodium score was implemented for liver allocation policy in 2016. Prior to the current and most recent policy, livers from adult donors were matched first to the status 1A/1B patients located within the boundaries of the UNOS regions and donor-service areas (DSA). We reviewed the disadvantages of the DSA-based allocation policies and the advantages of the newest acuity circle allocation model. We then reviewed the standard and non-standard indications for MELD exceptions and the decision-making process of the National Review Liver Review Board. Finally, we reviewed the liver transplant waitlist, donation and survival outcomes in the United States.

Minimal hepatic encephalopathy may be present despite the absence of non-invasive and elastography evidence of cirrhosis in patients with primary biliary cholangitis

PURPOSE

Minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE) is an important complication of chronic liver disease (CLD); however, MHE burden in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has not been determined yet. Therefore, our study aimed to assess the prevalence of MHE in a typical cohort of middle-aged, patients with PBC suspicion of liver fibrosis and to investigate the relationship between MHE, basic laboratory tests and the stage of liver fibrosis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Fifty-one patients (38 with PBC and 13 controls), were prospectively enrolled. Portosystemic Encephalopathy-Syndrome test was used to diagnose MHE. Elastography point qualification (ElastPQ) and non-invasive markers (APRI and FIB-4) were used to assess liver fibrosis. The severity of CLD was assessed using the Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Child-Pugh score.

RESULTS

MHE was diagnosed in 9 patients (24.3%) with PBC and none in the control group. As many as 44.4% of the patients with MHE had neither advanced fibrosis nor cirrhosis, as demonstrated using non-invasive markers of liver fibrosis or ElastPQ. The MELD score was the only predictor of MHE with cut-off value 8.5 [AUC ​= ​0.753, CI_95% ​= ​0.569 to 0.938)] with sensitivity of 56%, specificity of 85% and accuracy of the test of 78%. Non-invasive markers of liver fibrosis and ElastPQ did not predict MHE.

CONCLUSIONS

MHE may occur in PBC despite no evidence of advanced liver fibrosis or cirrhosis. The slightly elevated MELD score may indicate a substantially increased risk of MHE in patients with PBC.

Mortality and Its Determinants in Adult Patients with End-stage Liver Disease on Waiting List for Liver Transplantation: A Preliminary Report on Baseline Data

Background: Prevention of death in patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation (LT) is a major concern to prioritize organ allocation. Since the model for the end-stage liver disease (MELD) and its modifications have many shortages, there is a need for further refinement of the allocation strategy. Objectives: The current study aimed at assessing the predictors of mortality in LT candidates in a more comprehensive manner with the possible implications to improve the care of such patients and assist in developing better strategies for organ allocation. Methods: In the current cohort study, 544 adult LT candidates with end-stage liver disease were followed up for a mean of 12 months in three-month intervals. Data analysis was performed in Nutritionist, SPSS, and R software, using Kaplan-Meier, Cox proportional hazard (HRC), and LASSO Cox regression hazard (HRL) tests. Results: The mean age of the patients was 46.7 ± 13.7 years; the majority were male (n = 336, 61.7%). At the end of the study, 414 (76.1%) subjects were still alive and 130 (23.9%) dead. The cumulative percentages of death were 33.1%, 57.7%, and 79.2% after 3, 6, and 12 months of waiting for a donor, respectively. Although there was a strong association between having hepatopulmonary syndrome (HPS) (HRC = 4.7, HRL = 1.8), a history of myocardial infarction (MI) (HRC = 3.3, HRL = 1.6), low-carbohydrate (CHO) diet (HRC = 2.7, HRL = 1.5), and mortality, it was weak for MELD score. Moreover, a serum level of CA 125, high polymorphonuclear (PMN) count, weight loss, a high level of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), positive hepatitis B virus (HBV) markers, high mean corpuscular volume (MCV) of red blood cells, ascites, and edema of gallbladder wall had association with mortality in LT patients. Conclusions: In addition to MELD score, HPS, a history of MI, low CHO intake, weight loss, ascites, PMN, CA 125, ALT, hepatitis B surface antigen, MCV, blood urea nitrogen, and gallbladder wall thickness are predictors of mortality in LT candidates and need to be considered in the LT allocation system.

Congenital dyserythropoietic anemia and drug-induced liver injury present as bland cholestasis: A case report

Anemias and drug-induced liver injury(DILI) are separate disorders, which are difficult to diagnose. The clinical effects of DILI vary among individuals. However, the outcome determinants remain to be fully established. To the best of our knowledge, the role of anemia in DILI has yet to be reported. The present study reported on the case of one Chinese patient (male; age, 21 years) who experienced obvious drug-induced cholestasis. Of note, the hepatocyte injury was minimal compared with that in previously reported cases treated with the same drug. In addition, the patient suffered from mild hemolytic anemia with no obvious cause. A genetic pedigree analysis revealed compound heterozygous mutations in the congenital anemia-associated gene codanin 1, including the novel rare p.R1067H mutation. Treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid alone sufficed and the outcome was good. Therefore, whilst chronic hemolysis predisposed the liver to cholestasis, it could have shielded the liver from further injuries, since bilirubin, a by-product of hemolysis, is a known antioxidant. The results of the present study indicated that genetic screening may be used for the diagnosis of liver injury concurring with undiagnosed anemia.

Natremia and liver transplantation: The right amount of salt for a good recipe

An adequate balance between electrolytes and clear water is of paramount importance to maintaining physiologic homeostasis. Natremia imbalance and, in particular, hyponatremia is the most frequent electrolyte abnormality observed in hospitalized subjects, involving approximately one-fourth of them. Pathological changes occurring during liver cirrhosis predispose patients to an increased risk of sodium imbalance, and hypervolemic hyponatremia has been reported in nearly 50% of subjects with severe liver disease and ascites. Splanchnic vasodilatation, portal-systemic collaterals’ opening and increased excretion of vasoactive modulators are all factors impairing clear water handling during liver cirrhosis. Of concern, sodium imbalance has been consistently reported to be associated with increased risk of complications and reduced survival in liver disease patients. In the last decades clinical interest in sodium levels has been also extended in the field of liver transplantation. Evidence that [Na⁺] in blood is an independent risk factor for in-list mortality led to the incorporation of sodium value in prognostic scores employed for transplant priority, such as model for end-stage liver disease-Na and UKELD. On the other hand, severe hyponatremic cirrhotic patients are frequently delisted by transplant centers due to the elevated risk of mortality after grafting. In this review, we describe in detail the relationship between sodium imbalance and liver cirrhosis, focusing on its impact on peritransplant phases. The possible therapeutic approaches, in order to improve transplant outcome, are also discussed. 

Liver fibrosis: Pathophysiology and clinical implications

Liver fibrosis is a clinically significant finding that has major impacts on patient morbidity and mortality. The mechanism of fibrosis involves many different cellular pathways, but the major cell type involved appears to be hepatic stellate cells. Many liver diseases, including Hepatitis B, C, and fatty liver disease cause ongoing hepatocellular damage leading to liver fibrosis. No matter the cause of liver disease, liver-related mortality increases exponentially with increasing fibrosis. The progression to cirrhosis brings more dramatic mortality and higher incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma. Fibrosis can also affect outcomes following liver transplantation in adult and pediatric patients and require retransplantation. Drugs exist to treat Hepatitis B and C that reverse fibrosis in patients with those viral diseases, but there are currently no therapies to directly treat liver fibrosis. Several mouse models of chronic liver diseases have been successfully reversed using novel drug targets with current therapies focusing mostly on prevention of myofibroblast activation. Further research in these areas could lead to development of drugs to treat fibrosis, which will have invaluable impact on patient survival. This article is categorized under: Metabolic Diseases > Molecular and Cellular Physiology.

Accuracy of the BAR score in the prediction of survival after liver transplantation

INTRODUCTION AND AIM

The Balance of Risk (BAR) Score, a simple scoring system that combines six independent donor and recipient variables to predict outcome after liver transplantation (LT), was validated in a large U.S./European cohort of patients. This study aims to assess the performance of the BAR score to predict survival after liver transplantation and determine the factors associated with short and long-term survival in Latin-American patients.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was performed in 194 patients [112 (55.4%) males; mean age 52±14 years] who underwent 202 LT during the period 2003-2015. Demographic, clinical, pathological and surgical variables, as well as mortality and survival rates, were analyzed. The BAR score was investigated through a receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve with the calculation of the area under the curve (AUC) to evaluate the predictive score power for 3-month, 1 and 5-year mortality in a matched donor-recipient cohort. Youden index was calculated to identify optimal cutoff points.

RESULTS

The AUC of BAR score in predicting 3-month, 1-year and 5-year mortality were 0.755 (CI95% 0.689-0.812), 0.702 (CI95% 0.634-0.764) and 0.610 (CI95% 0.539-0.678) respectively. The best cut-off point was a BAR score ≥15 points. In the multivariate analysis BAR score <15 was associated with higher survival rates at 3 months and 1 and 5-years.

CONCLUSIONS

BAR score <15 points is an independent predictor of better short and long-term survival in Latin-American patients undergoing LT. The BAR scoring system has an adequate diagnostic capacity allowing to predict 3 and 12-month mortality.

Impact of Albumin-Bilirubin Score on Short- and Long-Term Survival After Living-Donor Liver Transplantation: A Retrospective Study

BACKGROUND

The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, stratified from the ALBI score, may have prognostic value in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. We aim to evaluate the prognostic abilities of the ALBI score/grade among living-donor liver transplantation patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected data of 81 patients who underwent living-donor liver transplant at Kobe University Hospital between June 2000 and October 2018. The efficacy of the ALBI score/grade as a prognostic factor was assessed and compared with that of the well-established Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score.

MAIN FINDINGS

Multivariate analysis indicated that recipient age (P = .003), donor age (P = .003), ALBI score ≥ -1.28 (P = .002), and ALBI grade III (P = .004) were independently associated with post-transplant survival. A high MELD score was not associated with post-transplant survival in univariate or multivariate analyses. Although there was no significant difference in the overall survival rate relative to recipient and donor age, ALBI score/grade was significantly associated with the 1- and 5-year survival rates (P = .023, P = .005). ALBI scores specifically detected fatal complications of post-transplant graft dysfunction (P = .031) and infection (P = .020).

CONCLUSION

ALBI score/grade predicted patient survival more precisely than the MELD score did, suggesting that it is a more useful prognostic factor compared to the MELD score in living-donor liver transplantation cases.

Assessment of Anastomotic Biliary Complications in Adult Patients Undergoing High-Acuity Liver Transplant

Importance

Anastomotic biliary complications (ABCs) constitute the most common technical complications in liver transplant (LT). Given the ever-increasing acuity of LT, identification of factors contributing to ABCs is essential to minimize morbidity and optimize outcomes. A detailed analysis in a patient population undergoing high-acuity LT is lacking.

Objective

To evaluate the rate of, risk factors for, and outcomes of ABCs and acuity level in LT recipients.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study included adult LT recipients from January 1, 2013, through June 30, 2016, at a single large urban transplant center. Patients were followed up for at least 12 months after LT until June 30, 2017. Of 520 consecutive adult patients undergoing LT, 509 LTs in 503 patients were included. Data were analyzed from May 1 through September 13, 2017.

Exposure

Liver transplant.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Any complications occurring at the level of the biliary reconstruction.

Results

Among the 503 transplant recipients undergoing 509 LTs included in the analysis (62.3% male; median age, 58 years [interquartile range {IQR}, 50-63 years), median follow-up was 24 months (IQR, 16-34 months). Overall patient and graft survival at 1 year were 91.1% and 90.3%, respectively. The median Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was 35 (IQR, 15-40) for the entire cohort. T tubes were used in 199 LTs (39.1%) during initial bile duct reconstruction. Overall incidence of ABCs included 103 LTs (20.2%). Anastomotic leak occurred in 25 LTs (4.9%) and stricture, 77 (15.1%). Exit-site leak in T tubes occurred in 36 (7.1%) and T tube obstruction in 16 (3.1%). Seventeen patients with ABCs required surgical revision of bile duct reconstruction. Multivariate analysis revealed the following 7 independent risk factors for ABCs: recipient hepatic artery thrombosis (odds ratio [OR], 12.41; 95% CI, 2.37-64.87; P = .003), second LT (OR, 4.05; 95% CI, 1.13-14.50; P = .03), recipient hepatic artery stenosis (OR, 3.81; 95% CI, 1.30-11.17; P = .02), donor hypertension (OR, 2.79; 95% CI, 1.27-6.11; P = .01), recipients with hepatocellular carcinoma (OR, 2.66; 95% CI, 1.23-5.74; P = .01), donor death due to anoxia (OR, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.13-6.03; P = .03), and use of nonabsorbable suture material for biliary reconstruction (OR, 2.45; 95% CI, 1.09-5.54; P = .03).

Conclusions and Relevance

This large, single-center series identified physiologic and anatomical independent risk factors contributing to ABCs after high-acuity LT. Careful consideration of these factors could guide perioperative management and mitigate potentially preventable ABCs.

Pre- and Peri-Operative Factors Associated with Chronic Critical Illness in Liver Transplant Recipients

Background: Chronic critical illness (CCI) is a new and increasing entity that accounts for substantial cost despite its low incidence. We hypothesized that patients with end-stage liver failure undergoing liver transplant would be at high risk for developing CCI. With limited liver donors it is essential to understand pre- and peritransplant predictors of CCI. Methods: To accomplish this we performed a retrospective cohort study at a large academic transplant center of all adult liver transplant patients from 2011 to 2017. We defined CCI as the need for mechanical ventilation for seven days or more post-transplant. Recipients who had re-transplantation during their index admission, acute rejection, or who died during transplant surgery were excluded. Logistic regression was performed using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the likelihood ratio test. Results: We identified 382 transplant recipients. Forty-five (11.8%) developed CCI. Univariable analysis identified 16 pre-transplant factors associated with post-transplant CCI. Subsequent multivariable logistic regression identified eight independent factors associated with CCI in liver transplant recipients including previous liver transplant, acute renal failure, frailty, lower albumin level, higher international normalized ratio, need for mechanical ventilation, and higher systolic pulmonary artery pressure. Pre-transplant factors associated with protection against CCI included higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. Conclusion: The incidence of CCI post-liver transplant is similar to the general population admitted to the intensive care unit. Pre-transplant factors associated with CCI can help identify at-risk patients, and furthermore, promote further research and interventions with the goal to decrease the incidence of CCI in the liver transplant recipients.

The Relationship of Obesity, Nutritional Status and Muscle Wasting in Patients Assessed for Liver Transplantation

INTRODUCTION

Obesity co-exists with malnutrition and muscle atrophy in patients with cirrhosis. Muscle wasting is a feature of sarcopenia, a known determinant of patient outcomes. This is the first description of a relationship between obesity, subjective global assessment (SGA) of nutritional status and muscle wasting in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

The relationship between body mass index (BMI with obesity defined as ≥ 30 kg/m2), nutritional status (assessed by liver-specific subjective global assessment-SGA) and muscle wasting (assessed by corrected total cross-sectional psoas muscle area-cTPA) was analysed in patients with cirrhosis considered for liver transplantation between 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2014.

RESULTS

There were 205 patients, of whom 70% were males. The mean age was 52 ± 0.7 years and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was 16.8 ± 0.5. Overall, 31% of patients were obese and 56% of well-nourished (SGA A) individuals were obese. Muscle wasting was identified in 86% of all patients, irrespective of their nutritional status (A, B, C). All obese males classified as well-nourished (SGA A) were sarcopenic and 62% of obese females classified as SGA A were sarcopenic. Muscle wasting was worse in obese individuals (cTPA 230.9 mm2/m2 ± 12.9, p < 0.0001) and more likely to be associated with hepatic encephalopathy (p = 0.03). Univariate and multivariate analysis demonstrated testosterone deficiency was significantly associated with muscle wasting (p = 0.007) but not obesity (p = 0.8).

CONCLUSION

Obesity combined with muscle wasting is common in patients with cirrhosis. Muscle wasting is common in well-nourished (SGA A) obese patients. Consequently, all patients assessed for liver transplantation should undergo additional screening for malnutrition and muscle wasting irrespective of BMI.

Impact of Donor Age on Recipient Survival in Adult-to-Adult Living-donor Liver Transplantation

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the influence of donor age on recipient outcome after living-donor partial liver transplantation (LDLT).

BACKGROUND

Donor age is a well-known prognostic factor in deceased donor liver transplantation; however, its role in LDLT remains unclear.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 315 consecutive cases of primary adult-to-adult LDLT in our center between April 2006 and March 2014. Recipients were divided into 5 groups according to the donor age: D-20s (n = 60); D-30s (n = 72); D-40s (n = 57); D-50s (n = 94); and D-60s (n = 32). The recipient survival and the association with various clinical factors were investigated.

RESULTS

Recipient survival proportions were significantly higher in D-20s compared with all the other groups (P = 0.008, < 0.001, < 0.001, and = 0.006, vs D-30s, -40s, -50s, and -60s, respectively), whereas there was no association between recipient survival and their own age. There are 3 typical relationships between donors and recipients in adult-to-adult LDLT: from child-to-parent, between spouses/siblings, and from parent-to-child. The overall survival in child-to-parent was significantly higher than in spouses/siblings (P = 0.002) and in parent-to-child (P = 0.005), despite significantly higher recipient age in child-to-parent [59 (42-69) years, P < 0.001]. Contrastingly, parent-to-child exhibited the lowest survival, despite the youngest recipient age [26 (20-43) years, P < 0.001]. In addition, younger donor age exhibited significantly better recipient survival both in hepatitis C virus-related and in non-hepatitis C virus diseases. Univariate and multivariate analyses both demonstrated that donor age and graft-type (right-sided livers) are independent prognostic factors for recipient survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Donor age is an independent, strong prognostic factor in adult-to-adult LDLT.

Scoring Systems and Postoperative Outcomes in Pediatric Liver Transplantation

PURPOSE

The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of risk scores (Pediatric End-stage Liver Disease [PELD], Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP], and Pediatric Risk of Mortality [PRISM-III]) of pediatric liver transplant patients on the postoperative period.

METHOD

Seven cadaveric and 45 living donors, totaling 52 pediatric liver transplantation (LT) patients, were reviewed retrospectively. PELD and CTP scores were calculated based on data at hospital admission. PRISM-III score was calculated from data during the first 24 hours of intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Hospital length of stay (LOS), ICU LOS, patients who developed acute kidney injury (AKI), requirement for inotropic-vasopressor therapy, hospital mortality, long-term mortality, duration of mechanical ventilation, metabolic disease, and demographic features were documented.For CTP score, class C was defined as high, and A and B as low. Cutoff values of PELD and PRISM-III scores were detected by using receiver operating characteristic curves. According to these cutoff values, patients were divided into 2 groups as high and low for each score. Documented data was analyzed and compared in groups for each score.

RESULTS

Hospital LOS was significantly longer in the high-PELD (P = .01) and high-CTP (P = .01) groups. ICU LOS was significantly longer in the high-PRISM-III group (P = .01). Requirement for inotropic-vasopressor therapy was significantly higher in the high-PELD (P = .04) and high-CTP (P = .04) groups.

CONCLUSION

Hemodynamic instability and long hospital LOS can be expected in pediatric post-LT patients with high PELD or CTP scores; there is also the risk that AKI maybe higher for high-PELD score patients. Unexpectedly, the PRISM-III score did not have any correlation with the severity of physiological condition and mortality.

Graft Risk Index After Liver Transplant: Internal and External Validation of a New Spanish Indicator

OBJECTIVES

Scarcity of liver grafts has led to the use of marginal donors, consequently increasing the number of complications posttransplant. To prevent this situation, several indicators have been developed. However, important differences remain among countries. Here, we compared an early-risk liver transplant indicator based on the Spanish Liver Transplant Registry, called the Graft Risk Index, versus the US donor risk index and the Eurotransplant donor risk index.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The new indicator was based on prospectively collected data from 600 adult liver transplants performed in our center. We considered 2 events to compare the indexes: graft survival and rejection-free graft survival, with Cox proportional regression for analyses. Power to predict graft survival was evaluated by calculating the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve.

RESULTS

We found no differences between the US and Eurotransplant donor risk indexes in prediction of patients with and without early graft failure. With regard to early survival, only the Graft Risk Index allowed better survival discrimination, in which survival progressively decreased with values ≥ 3 (with probability of graft survival at 1 month of 68%; 95% confidence interval, 46.2-82.5). This increase in risk was significant compared with the standard group (hazard ratio of 10.15; 95% confidence interval, C 3.91- 26.32; P < .001). We calculated powers of prediction of 0.52 (95% confidence interval, 0.43-0.62), 0.54 (95% confidence interval, 0.45-0.65), and 0.69 (95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.77) for donor risk index, Eurotransplant donor risk index, and early Graft Risk Index, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Neither the US donor risk index nor the Eurotransplant donor risk index was valid for our Spanish liver donation and transplant program. Therefore, an indicator to predict posttransplant graft survival that is adapted to our environment is necessary. This national Graft Risk Index can be a useful tool to optimize donor-recipient matching.

Graft survival after liver transplantation: an approach to a new Spanish risk index

INTRODUCTION

several indicators are available to assess liver graft survival, including the American DRI and the European ET-DRI. However, there are significant differences between transplant programs of different countries, and the previously mentioned indicators might be not valid in our setting.

OBJECTIVES

the aim of the study was to describe a new national liver graft risk indicator based on the results obtained from the Registro Español de Trasplante Hepático (RETH) and to validate the DRI and ET-DRI indicators.

METHODS

the RETH includes a Cox analysis of factors associated with graft survival; the graft risk index (GRI) indicator was defined based on these results. The variables considered are dependent upon the donation conditions (age, cause of death, blood compatibility and cold ischemia time) and the transplant recipient (age, underlying disease, hepatitis C virus, transplant number, UNOS status and surgical technique). A logistic regression curve was obtained and graft survival curves were calculated by stratification. Precision was assessed using the ROC analysis.

RESULTS

a GRI of 1 represents a probability of graft loss of 23.25%; each point increase in the GRI score multiplies this probability by 1.33. The best discrimination of GRI was obtained by stratification. The DRI ROC area was 0.54 (95% CI, 0.50-0.59) and the ET-DRI ROC area was 0.56 (95% CI, 0.51-0.61), compared to 0.70 (95% CI, 0.65-0.73) (p < 0.0001) for the GRI.

CONCLUSIONS

both the DRI and ET-DRI do not seem to be useful in our setting. Hence a national indicator is more desirable. The GRI requires a national study in order to further streamline and assess this indicator.

Impact of a Transplantation Critical Care Model on Short-Term Outcomes Following Liver Transplantation in High Acuity Patients: A Single-Center Experience

BACKGROUND

Orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) is the definitive treatment for end-stage liver disease (ESLD). Patients with high acuity ESLD are frequently denied life-saving OLT by transplant centers due to reported inferior outcomes. We sought to analyze the impact of a specialized transplant critical care model (TCCM) on patient access to OLT and survival outcomes in high acuity patients.

METHODS

From January 2009 to December 2016, 122 adults were wait-listed at our transplant center with laboratory Model for ESLD ≥35 or Status I. Outcomes in Era I (prior to TCCM) were compared to Era II (TCCM established October 1, 2012).

RESULTS

Era II (TCCM) led to a significant increase in patients' access to OLT. Frequency and need to seek OLT at another center dropped 4-fold in Era II. Compared to Era I, the majority of patients in Era II required intensive care unit management (22% vs 83%, P < .01) and renal replacement therapy (11% vs 70%, P < .01) prior to OLT. Despite a higher acuity of illness in Era II, 1-year patient survival was comparable (89% Era I, 80% Era II, P = .35).

CONCLUSION

Implementation of a specialized TCCM expanded OLT access to high acuity patients, reduced the need to seek higher level of care elsewhere, and achieved excellent short-term post-transplant survival outcomes.

Laparoscopic liver resection for the patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and chronic liver disease

Liver resection (LR), liver transplantation (LT), transarterial chemoembolization, and local ablation therapy are the treatment options for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Although LR, LT and local ablation therapy (only for small tumor) provide the best hope for cure, most patients with HCC have also chronic liver disease (CLD) backgrounds, including HCV-liver cirrhosis. Therefore, they are at high risk for development of postoperative complications-sometimes fatal-and metachronous multicentric recurrent tumors occurring from the preneoplastic CLD background. Appropriate treatment is selected for HCC patients, on the combined evaluations of tumor condition and liver function. However, not small number of patients cannot undergo any treatment option due to poor liver function and/or complicated tumor condition. After repeated treatments, it can happen more often. It is thought that the features of laparoscopic LR could lead to the expansion of the LR indication to those patients, in the settings of severe CLD, repeat LR and bridging to LT. In our experience, Child-Pugh (CP) score is one of the promising candidates as a selection indicator which correlates well to our indication criteria of surface small laparoscopic LR to severe CLD patients, patient's performance status, and prognosis. Portal hypertension should be also counted in the selection criteria.

The EMALT Score: An Improved Model for Prediction of Early Mortality in Liver Transplant Recipients

PURPOSE

Needs, risks, and outcomes of patients admitted to a post liver transplant intensive care unit (POLTICU) differ in important ways from those admitted to pretransplant intensive care units (ICUs). The aim of this study was to create the optimal model to risk stratify POLTICU patients.

METHODS

Consecutive patients who underwent first deceased donor liver transplantation (LT) at a large United States center between 2008 and 2014 were followed from admission to LT and to discharge or death. Receiver-operating characteristic analysis was performed to assess the value of various scores in predicting in-hospital mortality. A predictive model was developed using logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 697 patients underwent LT, and 3.2% died without leaving the hospital. A model for in-hospital mortality was derived from variables available within 24 hours of admission to the POLTICU. Key variables best predicting survival were white blood cell count, 24-hour urine output, and serum glucose. A model using these variables performed with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.88, compared to the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, which performed with AUCs of 0.74 and 0.60, respectively.

CONCLUSION

An improved model, the early mortality after LT (EMALT) score, performs better than conventional models in predicting in-hospital mortality after LT.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma with Bone Metastases: Incidence, Prognostic Significance, and Management-Single-Center Experience

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents one of the most common causes of cancer-related deaths worldwide, with rising incidence in the USA. Bone metastases with HCC, in particular, have an extremely poor prognosis. We present prevalence, treatment, and survival of patients with bone and more specifically spinal metastases from HCC.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was done at a single tertiary care institution of patients with bone metastases from HCC between January 2005 and December 2015.

RESULTS

Among 1017 patients with HCC, 20 were found to have bone metastases of which 11 had spinal metastases. Seventeen (85%) were male, with median age of 58 years at time of HCC diagnosis. Systemic chemotherapy and sorafenib were used in 12 (60%) patients, and 12 (60%) received radiation therapy. Among patients who did not receive therapy, median survival was 76 days. Median survival after diagnosis of metastasis in patients on sorafenib and radiation were 106 and 100 days, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Bone metastases in HCC are very rare and aggressive. Due to its rarity, optimal treatment strategies are not well defined. Early diagnosis is important for optimal therapy and improved survival.

Using time-varying models to estimate post-transplant survival in pediatric liver transplant recipients

PURPOSE

To distinguish clinical factors that have time-varying (as opposed to constant) impact upon patient and graft survival among pediatric liver transplant recipients.

METHODS

Using national data from 2002 through 2013, we examined potential clinical and demographic covariates using Gray's piecewise constant time-varying coefficients (TVC) models. For both patient and graft survival, we estimated univariable and multivariable Gray's TVC, retaining significant covariates based on backward selection. We then estimated the same specification using traditional Cox proportional hazards (PH) models and compared our findings.

RESULTS

For patient survival, covariates included recipient diagnosis, age, race/ethnicity, ventilator support, encephalopathy, creatinine levels, use of living donor, and donor age. Only the effects of recipient diagnosis and donor age were constant; effects of other covariates varied over time. We retained identical covariates in the graft survival model but found several differences in their impact.

CONCLUSION

The flexibility afforded by Gray's TVC estimation methods identify several covariates that do not satisfy constant proportionality assumptions of the Cox PH model. Incorporating better survival estimates is critical for improving risk prediction tools used by the transplant community to inform organ allocation decisions.

Serum interleukin-6 and tumor necrosis factor-α are associated with early graft regeneration after living donor liver transplantation

Background

Liver graft regeneration is orchestrated by specific and sequential stimuli, including hepatocyte growth factors, cytokines, and catecholamines. We evaluated the association between preoperative serum cytokines and early liver graft regeneration in human living donor liver transplantation (LDLT).

Patients and methods

We retrospectively reviewed the data of adult patients who underwent LDLT from January 2010 to December 2014. Serum cytokines, including interleukin (IL)-2, 6, 10, 12, 17, interferon (IFN)-γ and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α were measured in the recipients 1 day before surgery and on postoperative day (POD) 7. Liver graft volume was estimated using abdominal computed tomography images of the donors and recipients.

Results

In total, 226 patients were analyzed in this study. Median preoperative levels of serum cytokines were as follows: IL-2, 0.1 (0.1–1.6) pg/mL; IL-6, 7.3 (0.1–30.2) pg/mL; IL-10, 0.5 (0.1–11.0) pg/mL; IL-12, 0.1 (0.1–0.1) pg/mL; IL-17, 2.0 (0.1–16.4) pg/mL; IFN-γ, 3.2 (0.1–16.0) pg/mL; and TNF-α, 9.8 (5.4–17.9) pg/mL. Higher preoperative serum levels of IL-6, IL-10, and TNF-α, dichotomized at the median, were associated with increased relative liver volumes by POD 7. Multivariate analysis revealed that higher levels of serum IL-6 and TNF-α were independently associated with increased graft volume during the first 1 week after LDLT, based on the lower levels of those cytokines.

Conclusions

IL-6 and TNF-α were important mediators of the success of early graft regeneration in patients who underwent LDLT.

Chronic Kidney Disease after Liver Transplantation: Recent Evidence

Chronic kidney disease is a common complication after liver transplantation with an incidence ranging between 20% and 80%. Studies of renal function after liver transplantation have yielded conflicting results: the wide range in incidence rates of chronic kidney disease (CKD) following liver transplantation is related to the methods for measuring kidney function, and various criteria for defining renal dysfunction, among others. An important cause of CKD among liver transplant recipients is calcineurin inhibitor-based immunosuppression. Additional predictors of CKD post-liver transplantation include pre-transplant kidney function, peri-operative acute kidney failure, age, and hepatitis C. A recent meta-analysis of observational studies revealed that, in the subgroup of studies provided with glomerular filtration rate at baseline, the summary estimate of relative risk and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for developing chronic renal failure among liver transplant recipients with diminished renal function at transplant was 2.12 (95% CI, 1.01–4.46, p=0.047). Acute renal insufficiency is common immediately after liver transplantation, whereas the course of CKD after liver transplantation appears progressive over time. Only preliminary information exists on kidney pathological findings in recipients of liver transplants with CKD. Introduction of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease for the allocation of liver grafts has not increased the occurrence of renal dysfunction following liver transplantation. Chronic kidney disease following liver transplantation increases cardiovascular burden dramatically. The use of mycophenolic acid- or sirolimus-based immunosuppression in calcineurin-inhibitors sparing protocols is an area of intense research.

Systematic review: impact of liver transplantation on employment

Background

The majority of liver transplant recipients survive long term after the procedure.

Aim

To assess if this positive outcome is associated with improved employment post-transplant.

Methods

A systematic review of publications between 2001 and 2016 was performed. A standard procedure was used to search for suitable publications from two databases (PubMed and EMBASE). Duplicates were removed and abstracts screened by both authors for possible inclusion. Possible suitable publications were obtained and examined for the presence of pre- and post-employment information. Full articles that had this information were reviewed by standard methodology for assessment of bias.

Results

A total of 162 individual abstracts were screened. Thirty-five full papers were reviewed and 13 papers included in the detailed review. Risk of bias was considered high due to low response rates, poor assessment of prognostic and confounding factors and varying definitions of employment. Heterogeneous data precluded meta-analysis. Eight studies focused on return to work as a primary outcome and five on quality of life with employment as a secondary outcome. Follow-up varied between 2 and 13 years. Rates of employment fell in all studies assessed. Employment rates ranged from 26 to 80% pre-transplant and 18 to 44% post-transplant. The proportion of those categorized as ill-health retired was 24% greater after orthotopic liver transplantation.

Conclusions

Improved survival after liver transplantation was not reflected in a return to employment and retirement was common. Areas for further study include interventions to minimize physical deconditioning, depression associated with lower employment rates and type of work available after transplant.

Preoperative Recipient Parameters Allow Early Estimation of Postoperative Outcome and Intraoperative Transfusion Requirements in Liver Transplantation

CONTEXT

Liver transplantation is a complex intervention, and early anticipation of personnel and logistic requirements is of great importance. Early identification of high-risk patients could prove useful. We therefore evaluated prognostic values of recipient parameters commonly available in the early preoperative stage regarding postoperative 30- and 90-day outcomes and intraoperative transfusion requirements in liver transplantation.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

All adult patients undergoing first liver transplantation at Hannover Medical School between January 2005 and December 2010 were included in this retrospective study. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data as well as clinical courses were recorded. Prognostic values regarding 30- and 90-day outcomes were evaluated by uni- and multivariate statistical tests. Identified risk parameters were used to calculate risk scores.

RESULTS

There were 426 patients (40.4% female) included with a mean age of 48.6 (11.9) years. Absolute 30-day mortality rate was 9.9%, and absolute 90-day mortality rate was 13.4%. Preoperative leukocyte count >5200/μL, platelet count <91 000/μL, and creatinine values ≥77 μmol/L were relevant risk factors for both observation periods ( P < .05, respectively). A score based on these factors significantly differentiated between groups of varying postoperative outcomes and intraoperative transfusion requirements ( P < .05, respectively).

CONCLUSION

A score based on preoperative creatinine, leukocyte, and platelet values allowed early estimation of postoperative 30- and 90-day outcomes and intraoperative transfusion requirements in liver transplantation. Results might help to improve timely logistic and personal strategies.

Postoperative Meld-Lactate and Isolated Lactate Values As Outcome Predictors Following Orthotopic Liver Transplantation

The Model for End Stage Liver (MELD) score is validated to predict pretransplant mortality. However, as a predictor of postoperative outcomes, its utility has proven inconsistent. Recently developed MELD-Lactate models better predict 30-day survival as compared with the MELD and MELD-Sodium scores. We compared the MELD-Lactate, original MELD, and MELD-Sodium formulae and the initial postoperative lactate as predictors of 30-day and in-hospital mortality following liver transplantation.Adult patients (n = 989) undergoing orthotopic liver transplant between 2002 to 2013 were included. In addition to the previous models, the first postoperative lactate value and a newly derived Mount Sinai MELD-Lactate score and associated c-statistics were compared.The Mount Sinai MELD-Lactate model yielded the highest c-statistic value (0.749), followed by the original MELD-Lactate (0.740), initial lactate value (0.729), postoperative MELD (0.653), and MELD-Sodium (0.641) models in predicting survival at 30 days following liver transplantation. For in-hospital mortality, the original MELD-Lactate model had slightly higher c-statistic (0.739) compared with the Mount Sinai MELD-Lactate model (0.734). Despite the distribution differences in the MELD-Lactate models, the model validation results, both from cross-validation and bootstrap methods, were similar.Postoperative MELD-Lactate and isolated postoperative lactate values were moderately predictive of 30-day and in-hospital mortality following liver transplantation in this patient cohort.

A Specialized Transplantation Critical Care Model: Expanding Liver Transplantation Access to High-Acuity Patients

The current organ crisis has led to prolonged waiting times for liver transplantation, the progression of liver disease, and the subsequent increase in severity of illness. High acuity patients in need of orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) maybe denied access to life-saving transplantation due to perceived poor outcomes after OLT and severe comorbid conditions. Recent studies demonstrated the highest survival benefit and acceptable post-OLT outcomes in high-acuity patients. This article provides an overview of a transplantation critical care model to increase liver transplantation access and optimize post-OLT outcomes in high-acuity patients.

A novel learning algorithm to predict individual survival after liver transplantation for primary sclerosing cholangitis

Deciding who should receive a liver transplant (LT) depends on both urgency and utility. Most survival scores are validated through discriminative tests, which compare predicted outcomes between patients. Assessing post-transplant survival utility is not discriminate, but should be “calibrated” to be effective. There are currently no such calibrated models. We developed and validated a novel calibrated model to predict individual survival after LT for Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis (PSC). We applied a software tool, PSSP, to adult patients in the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (n = 2769) who received a LT for PSC between 2002 and 2013; this produced a model for predicting individual survival distributions for novel patients. We also developed an appropriate evaluation measure, D-calibration, to validate this model. The learned PSSP model showed an excellent D-calibration (p = 1.0), and passed the single-time calibration test (Hosmer-Lemeshow p-value of over 0.05) at 0.25, 1, 5 and 10 years. In contrast, the model based on traditional Cox regression showed worse calibration on long-term survival and failed at 10 years (Hosmer-Lemeshow p value = 0.027). The calculator and visualizer are available at: http://pssp.srv.ualberta.ca/calculator/liver_transplant_2002. In conclusion we present a new tool that accurately estimates individual post liver transplantation survival.

Adult Living Donor Liver Transplantation for Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure in High-Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score Patients

The large volume of adult living donor liver transplantations (ALDLTs) at our center affords a unique opportunity to examine the impact of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) among high-Model for End-Stage Liver Disease MELD score patients. From February 1998 to March 2010, 1958 cirrhotic recipients were analyzed to study the relationship between MELD scores and ALDLT outcomes. A total of 327 high-MELD score recipients were categorized into ACLF and non-ACLF groups, and their outcomes were compared. The 5-year graft and patient survival in the high-MELD group were 75.2% and 76.4%, respectively, which were significantly worse than the low and intermediate MELD groups. The presence of ACLF associated with higher MELD scores appeared to be the dominant factor responsible for the inferior results of patients with MELD score of 30-34 points. The 5-year graft survivals in the ACLF group was 70.5% and in the non-ACLF group it was 81.0% (p = 0.035). Therefore, ALDLT should be performed as soon as possible in high-MELD score patients prior to ACLF development. Moreover, ACLF patients should be separately categorized when analyzing the outcomes of ALDLT. ALDLT for ACLF patients should not be discouraged because favorable outcomes can be expected through timely ALDLT and comprehensive management.

Efficacy of vasopressin V2 receptor antagonist tolvaptan in treatment of hepatic edema

AIM

Tolvaptan, an oral active vasopressin V2 receptor antagonist, is widely used for hepatic edema in Japan, but its clinical benefits have yet to be fully clarified. The present study evaluated the efficacy of tolvaptan in hepatic edema.

METHODS

The efficacy and treatment regimen of tolvaptan were evaluated in 150 patients with hepatic edema by analyzing the initial (day 14) and long-term (day 90) responses to the drug and their predictive factors. All patients were divided into good (Child-Pugh classification B, and absent of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma) and poor hepatic condition groups, and the response rates were compared between the two groups.

RESULTS

The initial response rate was 62%, and the long-term response rate was 47%. The assessment of predictive factors for response to tolvaptan showed that serum creatinine and C-reactive protein levels were important predictors of initial response, and that hepatic conditions, such as the Child-Pugh score or presence of hepatocellular carcinoma, as well as initial response, were significant predictors of long-term response. In addition, both the initial and long-term response rates and the cumulative survival rate were found to be higher in the good hepatic condition group than in the poor hepatic condition group, respectively (71% vs. 57%, P = 0.113; 62% vs. 39%, P = 0.009; log-rank test, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

These results suggest that tolvaptan may provide high response rates when used early in the course of hepatic edema, or when both hepatic and renal functions are still retained, leading to an improved disease prognosis.

Risk Assessment in High- and Low-MELD Liver Transplantation

Allocation of liver grafts triggers emotional debates, as those patients, not receiving an organ, are prone to death. We analyzed a high-Model of End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) cohort (laboratory MELD score ≥30, n = 100, median laboratory MELD score of 35; interquartile range 31-37) of liver transplant recipients at our center during the past 10 years and compared results with a low-MELD group, matched by propensity scoring for donor age, recipient age, and cold ischemia time. End points of our study were cumulative posttransplantation morbidity, cost, and survival. Six different prediction models, including donor age x recipient MELD (D-MELD), Difference between listing MELD and MELD at transplant (Delta MELD), donor-risk index (DRI), Survival Outcomes Following Liver Transplant (SOFT), balance-of-risk (BAR), and University of California Los Angeles-Futility Risk Score (UCLA-FRS), were applied in both cohorts to identify risk for poor outcome and high cost. All score models were compared with a clinical-oriented decision, based on the combination of hemofiltration plus ventilation. Median intensive care unit and hospital stays were 8 and 26 days, respectively, after liver transplantation of high-MELD patients, with a significantly increased morbidity compared with low-MELD patients (median comprehensive complication index 56 vs. 36 points [maximum points 100] and double cost [median US$179 631 vs. US$80 229]). Five-year survival, however, was only 8% less than that of low-MELD patients (70% vs. 78%). Most prediction scores showed disappointing low positive predictive values for posttransplantation mortality, such as mortality above thresholds, despite good specificity. The clinical observation of hemofiltration plus ventilation in high-MELD patients was even superior in this respect compared with D-MELD, DRI, Delta MELD, and UCLA-FRS but inferior to SOFT and BAR models. Of all models tested, only the BAR score was linearly associated with complications. In conclusion, the BAR score was most useful for risk classification in liver transplantation, based on expected posttransplantation mortality and morbidity. Difficult decisions to accept liver grafts in high-risk recipients may thus be guided by additional BAR score calculation, to increase the safe use of scarce organs.

Living donor liver transplantation for high model for end-stage liver disease score: What have we learned?

AIM: To assess the impact of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score on patient survival and morbidity post living donor liver transplantation (LDLT).

METHODS: A retrospective study was performed on 80 adult patients who had LDLT from 2011-2013. Nine patients were excluded and 71 patients were divided into two groups; Group 1 included 38 patients with a MELD score < 20, and Group 2 included 33 patients with a MELD score > 20. Comparison between both groups was done regarding operative time, intra-operative blood requirement, intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital stay, infection, and patient survival.

RESULTS: Eleven patients died (15.5%); 3/38 (7.9%) patients in Group 1 and 8/33 (24.2%) in Group 2 with significant difference (P = 0.02). Mean operative time, duration of hospital stay, and ICU stay were similar in both groups. Mean volume of blood transfusion and cell saver re-transfusion were 8 ± 4 units and 1668 ± 202 mL, respectively, in Group 1 in comparison to 10 ± 6 units and 1910 ± 679 mL, respectively, in Group 2 with no significant difference (P = 0.09 and 0.167, respectively). The rates of infection and systemic complications (renal, respiratory, cardiovascular and neurological complications) were similar in both groups.

CONCLUSION: A MELD score > 20 may predict mortality after LDLT.

Superior Mesenteric Arterial Flow Pattern is Associated with Major Adverse Events in Adults with Fontan Circulation

Factors contributing to the failure of Fontan circulation in adults are poorly understood. Reduced superior mesenteric arterial (SMA) flow has been identified in pediatric Fontan patients with protein-losing enteropathy. SMA flow has not been profiled in an adult Fontan population and its association with adverse events is unknown. We aimed to examine associations between SMA flow patterns and adverse events in adult Fontan patients. We performed a retrospective review of adult Fontan patients who underwent echocardiograms between 2008 and 2014. SMA Doppler data included peak systolic and end-diastolic velocity and velocity time integral (VTI). Systolic/diastolic (S/D) ratio and resistive index were calculated. The relationship between SMA flow parameters and major adverse events (death or transplantation) was examined using proportional hazard Cox regression analyses. Kaplan-Meyer analysis was conducted to construct survival curve of patients with and without adverse events. 91 post-Fontan adult patients (76 % systemic left ventricle, 20 % atriopulmonary Fontan, mean age 27.9 years) were analyzed. Adverse events occurred in nine patients (death = 4, transplant = 5). When compared with the non-event group, the event group had increased end-diastolic velocity [hazard ratio (HR) 1.5, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.1-1.8; p = 0.002], increased systolic VTI (HR 1.5, 95 % CI 1.1-2.2, p = 0.02), increased diastolic VTI (HR 1.7, 95 % CI 1.2-2.4, p = 0.004), decreased S/D velocity ratio (HR 0.32, 95 % CI 0.14-0.71, p = 0.006), decreased S/D VTI ratio (HR 0.76, 95 % CI 0.61-0.97, p = 0.02), and decreased resistive index (HR 0.29, 95 % CI 0.14-0.60, p = 0.0007). Increased end-diastolic velocity and VTI in mesenteric arterial flow, with lower systolic/diastolic ratio and resistive index, were associated with death and need for heart transplant in adult Fontan patients. The mesenteric hyperemic flow was also associated with clinical signs of portal venous outflow obstruction, suggesting the presence of vasodilatory state in end-stage adult Fontan circulation.

Actuating critical care therapeutics

Viewing the intensive care unit (ICU) as a control system with inputs (patients) and outputs (outcomes), we focus on actuation (therapies) of the system and how to enhance our understanding of status of patients and their trajectory in the ICU. To incorporate the results of these analytics meaningfully, we feel that a reassessment of predictive scoring systems and of ways to optimally characterize and display the patient's "state space" to clinicians is important. Advances in sensing (diagnostics) and computation have not yet led to significantly better actuation, and so we focus on ways that data can be used to improve actuation in the ICU, in particular by following therapeutic burden along with disease severity. This article is meant to encourage discussion about how the critical care community can best deal with the data they see each day, and prepare for recommendations that will inevitably arise from application of major federal and state initiatives in big data analytics and precision medicine.

Evaluation of neutrophil/leukocyte ratio and organ failure score as predictors of reversibility and survival following an acute-on-chronic liver failure event

AIM

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is defined as an acute deterioration of liver disease with high mortality in patients with cirrhosis. The early mortality in ACLF is associated with organ failure and high leukocyte count. The time needed to reverse this condition and the factors affecting mortality after the early 30-day-period were evaluated.

METHODS

One hundred and ninety-seven consecutive patients with cirrhosis were included. Patients were prospectively followed up for 180 days.

RESULTS

ACLF was diagnosed in 54.8% of the patients. Infection was the most common precipitating event in patients with ACLF. On multivariate analysis, only the neutrophil/leukocyte ratio and Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Organ Failure (CLIF-C OF) score were associated with mortality. Hazard ratios for mortality of patients with ACLF compared with those without at different time end-points post-enrollment revealed that the relative risk of death in the ACLF group was 8.54 during the first 30-day period and declined to 1.94 during the second period of observation. The time varying effect of neutrophil/leukocyte ratio and CLIF-C score was negative (1% and 18% decline in the hazard ratio per month) while that of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) was positive (3% increase in the hazard ratio per month).

CONCLUSION

The condition of ACLF was reversible in patients who survived. During the 30-180-day period following the acute event, the probability of death in ACLF became gradually similar to the non-ACLF group. The impact of inflammatory response and organ failure on survival is powerful during the first 30-day period and weakens thereafter while that of MELD increases.

Factors associated with increased incidence of severe toxicities following yttrium-90 resin microspheres in the treatment of hepatic malignancies

AIM: To further define variables associated with increased incidences of severe toxicities following administration of yttrium-90 (⁹⁰Y) microspheres.

METHODS: Fifty-eight patients undergoing 79 treatments were retrospectively assessed for development of clinical and laboratory toxicity incidence following ⁹⁰Y administration. Severe toxicity events were defined using Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 4.03 and defined as grade ≥ 3. Univariate logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the effect of different factors on the incidence of severe toxicity events. Multicollinearity was assessed for all factors with P < 0.1 using Pearson correlation matrices. All factors not excluded due to multicollinearity were included in a multivariate logistic regression model for each measurement of severe toxicity.

RESULTS: Severe (grade ≥ 3) toxicities occurred following 21.5% of the 79 treatments included in our analysis. The most common severe laboratory toxicities were severe alkaline phosphatase (17.7%), albumin (12.7%), and total bilirubin (10.1%) toxicities. Decreased pre-treatment albumin (OR = 26.2, P = 0.010) and increased pre-treatment international normalized ratio (INR) (OR = 17.7, P = 0.048) were associated with development of severe hepatic toxicity. Increased pre-treatment aspartate aminotransferase (AST; OR = 7.4, P = 0.025) and decreased pre-treatment hemoglobin (OR = 12.5, P = 0.025) were associated with severe albumin toxicity. Increasing pre-treatment model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (OR = 1.8, P = 0.033) was associated with severe total bilirubin toxicity. Colorectal adenocarcinoma histology was associated with severe alkaline phosphatase toxicity (OR = 5.4, P = 0.043).

CONCLUSION: Clinicians should carefully consider pre-treatment albumin, INR, AST, hemoglobin, MELD, and colorectal histology when choosing appropriate candidates for ⁹⁰Y microsphere therapy.