Palpable breast cancer which is mammographically invisible

Mammographic sensitivity as a function of tumor size: A novel estimation based on population-based screening data

Background

Instead of a single value for mammographic sensitivity, a sensitivity function based on tumor size more realistically reflects mammography’s detection capability. Because previous models may have overestimated size-specific sensitivity, we aimed to provide a novel approach to improve sensitivity estimation as a function of tumor size.

Methods

Using aggregated data on interval and screen-detected cancers, observed tumor sizes were back-calculated to the time of screening using an exponential tumor growth model and a follow-up time of 4 years. From the observed number of detected cancers and an estimation of the number of false-negative cancers, a model for the sensitivity as a function of tumor size was determined. A univariate sensitivity analysis was conducted by varying follow-up time and tumor volume doubling time (TVDT). A systematic review was conducted for external validation of the sensitivity model.

Results

Aggregated data of 22,915 screen-detected and 10,670 interval breast cancers from the Dutch screening program were used. The model showed that sensitivity increased from 0 to 85% for tumor sizes from 2 to 20 mm. When TVDT was set at the upper and lower limits of the confidence interval, sensitivity for a 20-mm tumor was 74% and 93%, respectively. The estimated sensitivity gave comparable estimates to those from two of three studies identified by our systematic review.

Conclusion

Derived from aggregated breast screening outcomes data, our model’s estimation of sensitivity as a function of tumor size may provide a better representation of data observed in screening programs than other models.

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Mammographic sensitivity is a key indicator of screening effectiveness.

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Previous model using logistic function might overestimate size-specific sensitivity.

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Our model showed that sensitivity increased from 0 to 85% for tumor sizes from 2 to 20 mm.

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Our model may provide a better representation of data observed in screening programs.

Prognosis for mammographically occult, early-stage breast cancer patients treated with breast-conservation therapy

PURPOSE

To compare mammographically occult (MamOcc) and mammographically positive (MamPos) early-stage breast cancer patients treated with breast-conservation therapy (BCT), to analyze differences between the two cohorts.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Our two cohorts consisted of 214 MamOcc and 2168 MamPos patients treated with BCT. Chart reviews were conducted to assess mammogram reports and method of detection. All clinical-pathologic and outcome parameters were analyzed to detect differences between the two cohorts.

RESULTS

Median follow-up was 7 years. There were no differences in final margins, T stage, nodal status, estrogen/progesterone receptor status, or "triple-negative" status. Significant differences included younger age at diagnosis (p < 0.0001), more positive family history (p = 0.0033), less HER-2+ disease (p = 0.0294), and 1 degrees histology (p < 0.0001). At 10 years, the differences in overall survival, cause-specific survival, and distant relapse between the two groups did not differ significantly. The MamOcc cohort had more breast relapses (15% vs. 8%; p = 0.0357), but on multivariate analysis this difference was not significant (hazard ratio 1.0, 95% confidence interval 0.993-1.007, p = 0.9296). Breast relapses were mammographically occult in 32% of the MamOcc and 12% of the MamPos cohorts (p = 0.0136).

CONCLUSIONS

Although our study suggests that there are clinical-pathologic variations for the MamOcc cohort vs. MamPos patients that may ultimately affect management, breast relapse after BCT was not significantly different. Breast recurrences were more often mammographically occult in the MamOcc cohort; consideration should be given to closer follow-up and alternative imaging strategies (ultrasound, breast MRI) for routine posttreatment examination. To our knowledge, this represents the largest series addressing the prognostic significance of MamOcc cancers treated with BCT.