Validation of the 2019 European Society of Cardiology Risk Stratification Algorithm for Pulmonary Embolism in Normotensive Elderly Patients

Validation of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index Risk Classification and the 2019 European Society of Cardiology Risk Stratification in the Southeast Asian Population with Acute Pulmonary Embolism

AIM

To date, no studies representing the Southeast Asian population have validated the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and 2019 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk stratification. Therefore, this study aimed to validate the PESI score, simplified PESI (sPESI), PESI risk classification, and 2019 ESC risk stratification in Southeast Asian patients with acute pulmonary embolism (APE).

METHODS

The present study is a 10-year cross-sectional study. Here, risk regressions were conducted to identify the PESI risk classification, sPESI, and 2019 ESC risk stratification as predictors for 30-day all-cause and PE-related mortalities. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to determine the diagnostic ability of the PESI score, sPESI score, PESI risk classification, and 2019 ESC risk stratification to predict 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 696 patients (male, 286; female, 410; mean age, 57.7±15.7 years) were included in this study from 2011 to 2020. The risk of 30-day all-cause mortality progressively increased with the 2019 ESC risk stratification, being approximately 6-fold higher in the high-risk than in the low-risk class [risk ratio: 6.24 (95% confidence interval (CI), 3.12, 12.47), P＜0.001]. The risk of 30-day all-cause mortality with the PESI risk classification also increased with the risk classes, being approximately 6-fold higher in class V than in class I [adjusted risk ratio: 5.91 (95% CI, 2.25, 15.51), P＜0.001]. The highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AuROC) of the predictive model was the PESI score [AuROC=0.733 (95% CI, 0.685, 0.782)].

CONCLUSION

Our study represents a good validation of the PESI and 2019 ESC risk stratification to predict 30-day mortality after APE diagnosis in the Southeast Asian population.

Prediction of very early major bleeding risk in acute pulmonary embolism: an independent external validation of the Pulmonary Embolism-Syncope, Anemia, and Renal Dysfunction (PE-SARD) bleeding score

BACKGROUND

The Pulmonary Embolism-Syncope, Anemia, and Renal Dysfunction (PE-SARD) bleeding score was derived to predict very early major bleeding (MB) in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). Before adoption into practice, the score requires external validation in different populations.

OBJECTIVES

We independently validated the PE-SARD score in a prospective multicenter Swiss cohort of 687 patients aged ≥65 years with acute PE.

METHODS

The PE-SARD score uses 3 variables (syncope, anemia, and renal dysfunction) to classify patients into 3 categories of increasing bleeding risk. The outcomes were very early MB at 7 days (primary) and MB at later time points (secondary). We calculated the PE-SARD score for each patient and classified the proportion of patients as being at low, intermediate, and high risk. To assess discrimination and calibration, we calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, respectively.

RESULTS

The prevalence of MB was 2.0% (14/687) at 7 days and 14.0% (96/687) after a median follow-up of 30 months. The PE-SARD score classified 40.2%, 42.2%, and 17.6% of patients as low, intermediate, and high risk for MB, respectively. The frequency of observed very early MB at 7 days was 1.8% in low-, 2.1% in intermediate-, and 2.5% in high-risk patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.52 (95% CI, 0.48-0.56) at 7 days and increased to 0.60 (95% CI, 0.56-0.64) at the end of follow-up. Score calibration was adequate (p > .05) over the entire follow-up.

CONCLUSION

In our independent validation, the PE-SARD score did not accurately predict very early MB and may not be transportable to older patients with PE.

Additive prognostic value of serum calcium to the ESC risk stratification in patients with acute pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND

Hypocalcemia has been shown to be involved in the adverse outcomes of acute pulmonary embolism (APE). We aimed to determine the incremental value of adding hypocalcemia, defined as serum calcium level ≤ 2.12 mmol/L, on top of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) prognostic algorithm, for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in APE patients, which in turn could lead to the optimization of APE management.

METHODS

This study was conducted at West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2016 to December 2019. Patients with APE were retrospectively analyzed and divided into 2 groups based on serum calcium levels. Associations between hypocalcemia and adverse outcomes were assessed by Cox analysis. The accuracy of risk stratification for in-hospital mortality was assessed with the addition of serum calcium to the current ESC prognostic algorithm.

RESULTS

Among 803 patients diagnosed with APE, 338 (42.1%) patients had serum calcium levels ≤ 2.12 mmol/L. Hypocalcemia was significantly associated with higher in-hospital and 2-year all-cause mortality compared to the control group. The addition of serum calcium to ESC risk stratification enhanced net reclassification improvement. Low-risk group with serum calcium level > 2.12 mmol/L had a 0% mortality rate, improving the negative predictive value up to 100%, while high-risk group with serum calcium level ≤ 2.12 mmol/L indicated a higher mortality of 25%.

CONCLUSION

Our study identified serum calcium as a novel predictor of mortality in patients with APE. In the future, serum calcium may be added to the commonly used ESC prognostic algorithm for better risk stratification of patients suffering from APE.

Predictive Ability of the National Early Warning Score in Mortality Prediction of Acute Pulmonary Embolism in the Southeast Asian Population

BACKGROUND

The National Early Warning Scores (NEWS) easily and objectively measures acute clinical deterioration. However, the performance of NEWS to predict mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (APE) is still required. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of the NEWS in predicting the mortality of patients with APE.

METHODS

NEWS and Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) at diagnosis time were calculated. Risk regression analysis was performed to identify the NEWS and PESI risk classification as a predictor for 30 days all-cause mortality and PE-related mortality.

RESULTS

NEWS was significantly higher in non-survivors compared to survivors (median (IQR) was 10 (7, 11) vs. 7 (2, 9), respectively, p < 0.001). The best cut-off point of NEWS in discriminating APE patients who non-survived from those who survived at 30 days was ≥9, with a sensitivity and specificity of 66.9% and 66.3%, respectively. The adjusted risk ratio of 30-day all-cause mortality in patients with initial NEWS ≥ 9 was 2.96 (95% CI; 2.13, 4.12, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The NEWS can be used for mortality prediction in patients with APE. APE patients with NEWS ≥ 9 are associated with a high risk of mortality and should be closely monitored.

Risk stratification to optimize the management of acute pulmonary embolism

INTRODUCTION

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a life-threatening disease. Risk stratification in patients with acute PE can guide clinical decisions. Clinical assessment, including hemodynamics, respiratory parameters, patient history, and right ventricle evaluation, has a pivotal role in this scope.

AREAS COVERED

This review aims to describe: i) the role of individual tools for prognostic stratification, from simple clinical parameters to the models suggested by international guidelines; ii) the implications of risk stratification in terms of patient disposition and treatment. The bleeding risk assessment in acute PE was also reviewed. The literature search was performed in PubMed and Embase to address these issues.

EXPERT OPINION

Prognostic assessment is essential to proceed with life-saving treatments in hemodynamically unstable patients and consider home treatment or short hospital stay in patients at low risk for death. In hemodynamically stable patients, risk stratification allows the implementation of personalized treatment pathways to reduce the risk of death, early PE recurrence, and bleeding. With the aim of optimizing healthcare resources, risk stratification may suggest appropriate patient disposition.