Predicting Adverse Events beyond Stroke and Bleeding with the ABC-Stroke and ABC-Bleeding Scores in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: The Murcia AF Project

Comparison of warfarin, rivaroxaban, and dabigatran for effectiveness and safety in atrial fibrillation patients with different CHA2DS2-VASc scores: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

This retrospective cohort study aims to compare the effectiveness and safety of warfarin, rivaroxaban, and dabigatran in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with different CHA2DS2-VASc scores in northern China.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was performed to evaluate anticoagulation in AF patients at the second affiliated hospital of Harbin Medical University from September 2018 to August 2019. Patients included in this study (n = 806) received warfarin (n = 300), or rivaroxaban (n = 203), or dabigatran (n = 303). Baseline characteristics and follow-up data including adherence, bleeding events and ischemic stroke (IS) events were collected.

RESULTS

Patients receiving rivaroxaban (73.9%) or dabigatran (73.6%) showed better adherence than those receiving warfarin (56.7%). Compared with warfarin-treated patients, dabigatran-treated patients had lower incidence of bleeding events (10.9% vs 19.3%, χ2 = 8.385, P = 0.004) and rivaroxaban-treated patients had lower incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (7.4% vs 13.7%, χ2 = 4.822, P = 0.028). We classified patients into three groups based on CHA2DS2-VASc score (0-1, 2-3, ≥ 4). In dabigatran intervention, incidence of bleeding events was higher in patients with score 0-1 (20.0%) than those with score 2-3 (7.9%, χ2 = 5.772, P = 0.016) or score ≥ 4 (8.6%, χ2 = 4.682, P = 0.030). Patients with score 0-1 in warfarin or rivaroxaban therapy had a similar but not significant increase of bleeding compared with patients with score 2-3 or score ≥ 4, respectively. During the follow-up, 33 of 806 patients experienced IS and more than half (19, 57.6%) were patients with score ≥ 4. Comparing patients with score 0-1 and 2-3, the latter had an significant reduction of IS in patients prescribed warfarin and non-significant reduction in rivaroxaban and dabigatran therapy.

CONCLUSION

Compared with warfarin therapy, patients with different CHA2DS2-VASc scores receiving either rivaroxaban or dabigatran were associated with higher persistence. AF patients with score ≥ 4 were more likely to experience IS events while hemorrhagic tendency preferred patients with low score 0-1.

Validating the predictive ability of the 2MACE score for major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with atrial fibrillation: results from phase II/III of the GLORIA-AF registry

The 2MACE score was specifically developed as a risk-stratification tool in atrial fibrillation (AF) to predict cardiovascular outcomes. We evaluated the predictive ability of the 2MACE score in the GLORIA-AF registry. All eligible patients from phase II/III of the prospective global GLORIA-AF registry were included. Major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) were defined as the composite outcome of stroke, myocardial infarction and cardiovascular death. Cox proportional hazards were used to examine the relationship between the 2MACE score and study outcomes. Predictive capability of the 2MACE score was investigated using receiver-operating characteristic curves. A total of 25,696 patients were included (mean age 71 years, female 44.9%). Over 3 years, 1583 MACEs were recorded. Patients who had MACE were older, with more cardiovascular risk factors and were less likely to be managed using a rhythm-control strategy. The median 2MACE score in the MACE and non-MACE groups were 2 (IQR 1-3) and 1 (IQR 0-2), respectively (p < 0.001). The 2MACE score was positively associated with an increase in the risk of MACE, with a score of ≥ 2 providing the best combination of sensitivity (69.6%) and specificity (51.6%), HR 2.47 (95% CI, 2.21-2.77). The 2MACE score had modest predictive performance for MACE in patients with AF (AUC 0.655 (95% CI, 0.641-0.669)). Our analysis in this prospective global registry demonstrates that the 2MACE score can adequately predict the risk of MACE (defined as myocardial infarction, CV death and stroke) in patients with AF. Clinical trial registration: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifiers: NCT01468701, NCT01671007 and NCT01937377.

Prediction of early death after atrial fibrillation diagnosis using a machine learning approach: A French nationwide cohort study

AIMS

Atrial fibrillation is associated with important mortality but the usual clinical risk factor based scores only modestly predict mortality. This study aimed to develop machine learning models for the prediction of death occurrence within the year following atrial fibrillation diagnosis and compare predictive ability against usual clinical risk scores.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used a nationwide cohort of 2,435,541 newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation patients seen in French hospitals from 2011 to 2019. Three machine learning models were trained to predict mortality within the first year using a training set (70% of the cohort). The best model was selected to be evaluated and compared with previously published scores on the validation set (30% of the cohort). Discrimination of the best model was evaluated using the C index. Within the first year following atrial fibrillation diagnosis, 342,005 patients (14.4%) died after a period of 83 (SD 98) days (median 37 [10-129]). The best machine learning model selected was a deep neural network with a C index of 0.785 (95% CI, 0.781-0.789) on the validation set. Compared to clinical risk scores, the selected model was superior to the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED risk scores and superior to dedicated scores such as Charlson Comorbidity Index and Hospital Frailty Risk Score to predict death within the year following atrial fibrillation diagnosis (C indexes: 0.597; 0.562; 0.643; 0.626 respectively. P < .0001).

CONCLUSION

Machine learning algorithms predict early death after atrial fibrillation diagnosis and may help clinicians to better risk stratify atrial fibrillation patients at high risk of mortality.

Atrial fibrillation and stroke prevention: 25 years of research at EP Europace journal

Stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is one pillar of the management of this common arrhythmia. Substantial advances in the epidemiology and associated pathophysiology underlying AF-related stroke and thrombo-embolism are evident. Furthermore, the introduction of the non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (also called direct oral anticoagulants) has clearly changed our approach to stroke prevention in AF, such that the default should be to offer oral anticoagulation for stroke prevention, unless the patient is at low risk. A strategy of early rhythm control is also beneficial in reducing strokes in selected patients with recent onset AF, when compared to rate control. Cardiovascular risk factor management, with optimization of comorbidities and attention to lifestyle factors, and the patient's psychological morbidity are also essential. Finally, in selected patients with absolute contraindications to long-term oral anticoagulation, left atrial appendage occlusion or exclusion may be considered. The aim of this state-of-the-art review article is to provide an overview of the current status of AF-related stroke and prevention strategies. A holistic or integrated care approach to AF management is recommended to minimize the risk of stroke in patients with AF, based on the evidence-based Atrial fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway, as follows: A: Avoid stroke with Anticoagulation; B: Better patient-centred, symptom-directed decisions on rate or rhythm control; C: Cardiovascular risk factor and comorbidity optimization, including lifestyle changes.

Stroke risk scores for prediction of mortality and hemorrhages in atrial fibrillation patients

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an emerging epidemic worldwide, responsible for a twofold increase in mortality, independent of other risk factors. Stroke prevention is the cornerstone of AF management. However, oral anticoagulation imposes an increased risk of bleeding. Several risk scores have been developed for estimating both the thromboembolic and the bleeding risks. The aim of the study was to determine the usefulness of different stroke risk scores as predictors of mortality and hemorrhagic events in AF patients.

Methods: We retrospectively enrolled 211 AF patients hospitalized in the Cardiology Ward of our tertiary hospital. The primary endpoints were mortality and non-minor bleeding events. The mean follow-up period was 378 days for bleeding events and 5 years and 1 month for mortality. For each patient, we evaluated the following stroke risk scores: CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, R2CHADS2, ABC, ATRIA, GARFIELD.

Results: The mean age in our cohort is 66, with a slight predominance of women (52.2%). For a CHA2DS2-VASc ≥ 4 as well as for a score of 2-3, 5-year survival was worse than for patients with a score of 0–1(chi-squared=8.13; p=0.01). Similarly, all subgroups of patients with an ABC <2%, had a worse 5-year survival when compared with an ABC score of ≥2% (chi-squared=12.85; p=0.005). C-statistics show a modest predictive value for mortality, for all stroke scores except Garfield, with similar AUCs, the highest being for CHA2DS2-VASc (AUC 0.656; p=0.0001). CHA2DS2-VASc also correlates with bleeding events, having a good predictive ability (AUC 0.723; 95%CI 0.658–0.782, p=0.001), mildly superior to HAS-BLED (AUC 0.674; 95% CI 0.523–0.825; p = 0.04) and very close to Garfield-bleeding (0.765; 95%CI 0.702–0.80; p=0.0001).

Conclusions: CHA2DS2-VASc is comparable to HAS-BLED and Garfield-bleeding in predicting bleeding events in AF patients. CHA2DS2-VASc and ABC correlate directly and consistently with mortality rate. For CHA2DS2-VASc, the AUCs for our endpoints are similar to the ones for stroke prediction, highlighting the potential of extending its applicability to various outcomes.

Using multimarker screening to identify biomarkers associated with cardiovascular death in patients with atrial fibrillation

AIMS

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with higher mortality. Biomarkers may improve the understanding of key pathophysiologic processes in AF that lead to death. Using a new multiplex analytic technique, we explored the association between 268 biomarkers and cardiovascular (CV) death in anticoagulated patients with AF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A case-cohort design with 1.8- to 1.9-year follow-up. The identification cohort included 517 cases and 4057 randomly selected patients from ARISTOTLE. The validation cohort included 277 cases and 1042 randomly selected controls from RE-LY. Plasma collected at randomization was analysed with conventional immunoassays and the OLINK proximity extension assay panels: CVDII, CVDIII, and Inflammation. Association between biomarkers and CV death was evaluated using Random Survival Forest, Boruta, and adjusted Cox-regression analyses. The biomarkers most strongly and consistently associated with CV death were as follows (hazard ratio for inter-quartile comparison [95% CI]): N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP; 1.63 (1.37-1.93)], cardiac troponin T [cTnT-hs; 1.60 (1.35-1.88)], interleukin-6 [IL-6; 1.29 (1.13-1.47)], growth differentiation factor-15 [GDF-15; 1.30 (1.10-1.53)], fibroblast growth factor 23 [FGF-23; 1.21 (1.10-1.33)], urokinase receptor [uPAR; 1.38 (1.16-1.64)], trefoil factor 3 [TFF3; 1.27 (1.10-1.46)], tumour necrosis factor receptor 1 [TNFR1; 1.21 (1.01-1.45)], TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand receptor 2 [TRAILR2; 1.18 (1.04-1.34)], and cathepsin L1 [CTSL1; 1.22 (1.07-1.39)].

CONCLUSION

In this comprehensive screening of 268 biomarkers in anticoagulated patients with AF, the underlying mechanisms most strongly associated with CV death were cardiorenal dysfunction (NT-proBNP, cTnT-hs, CTSL1, TFF3), oxidative stress (GDF-15), inflammation (IL-6, GDF-15), calcium balance, vascular and renal dysfunction (FGF-23), fibrinolysis (suPAR), and apoptosis (TNFR1, TRAILR2). These findings provide novel insights into pathophysiologic aspects associated with CV death in AF.

CLINICALTRIALS.GOV IDENTIFIER

NCT00412984 and NCT00262600.

Cardiac troponins and adverse outcomes in European patients with atrial fibrillation: A report from the ESC-EHRA EORP atrial fibrillation general long-term registry

BACKGROUND

Cardiac troponins (cTn) have been reported to be predictors for adverse outcomes in atrial fibrillation (AF), patients, but their actual use is still unclear.

AIM

To assess the factors associated with cTn testing in routine practice and evaluate the association with outcomes.

METHODS

Patients enrolled in the ESC-EHRA EORP-AF General Long-Term Registry were stratified into 3 groups according to cTn levels as (i) cTn not tested, (ii) cTn in range (≤99th percentile), (iii) cTn elevated (>99th percentile). The composite outcome of any thromboembolism /any acute coronary syndrome/cardiovascular (CV) death, defined as Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events (MACE) and all-cause death were the main endpoints.

RESULTS

Among 10 445 AF patients (median age 71 years, 40.3% females) cTn were tested in 2834 (27.1%). cTn was elevated in 904/2834 (31.9%) and in-range in 1930/2834 (68.1%) patients. Female sex, in-hospital enrollment, first-detected AF, CV risk factors, history of coronary artery disease, and atypical AF symptoms were independently associated with cTn testing. Elevated cTn were independently associated with a higher risk for MACE (Model 1, hazard ratio [HR] 1.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.40-2.16, Model 2, HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.28-2.05; Model 3 HR 1.76, 95% CI 1.37-2.26) and all-cause death (Model 1, HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.21-1.74; Model 2, HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.12-1.66; Model 3, HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.12-1.71).

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated cTn levels were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality and adverse CV events. Clinical factors that might enhance the need to rule out CAD were associated with cTn testing.

Assessment and mitigation of bleeding risk in atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism: A Position Paper from the ESC Working Group on Thrombosis, in collaboration with the European Heart Rhythm Association, the Association for Acute CardioVascular Care and the Asia-Pacific Heart Rhythm Society

Whilst there is a clear clinical benefit of oral anticoagulation (OAC) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and venous thromboembolism (VTE) in reducing the risks of thromboembolism, major bleeding events (especially intracranial bleeds) may still occur and be devastating. The decision to initiate and continue anticoagulation is often based on a careful assessment of both the thromboembolism and bleeding risk. The more common and validated bleeding risk factors have been used to formulate bleeding risk stratification scores, but thromboembolism and bleeding risk factors often overlap. Also, many factors that increase bleeding risk are transient and modifiable, such as variable international normalized ratio values, surgical procedures, vascular procedures, or drug-drug and food-drug interactions. Bleeding risk is also not a static 'one off' assessment based on baseline factors but is dynamic, being influenced by ageing, incident comorbidities, and drug therapies. In this Consensus Document, we comprehensively review the published evidence and propose a consensus on bleeding risk assessments in patients with AF and VTE, with the view to summarizing 'best practice' when approaching antithrombotic therapy in these patients. We address the epidemiology and size of the problem of bleeding risk in AF and VTE, review established bleeding risk factors, and summarize definitions of bleeding. Patient values and preferences, balancing the risk of bleeding against thromboembolism are reviewed, and the prognostic implications of bleeding are discussed. We propose consensus statements that may help to define evidence gaps and assist in everyday clinical practice.

Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) in cardiovascular diseases: predicting bleeding after cardiac surgery and beyond that!

No Abstract.

2021 Focused update of the 2017 consensus guidelines of the Asia Pacific Heart Rhythm Society (APHRS) on stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation

The consensus of the Asia Pacific Heart Rhythm Society (APHRS) on stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF) has been published in 2017 which provided useful clinical guidance for cardiologists, neurologists, geriatricians, and general practitioners in Asia-Pacific region. In these years, many important new data regarding stroke prevention in AF were reported. The Practice Guidelines subcommittee members comprehensively reviewed updated information on stroke prevention in AF, and summarized them in this 2021 focused update of the 2017 consensus guidelines of the APHRS on stroke prevention in AF. We highlighted and focused on several issues, including the importance of AF Better Care (ABC) pathway, the advantages of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) for Asians, the considerations of use of NOACs for Asian patients with AF with single 1 stroke risk factor beyond gender, the role of lifestyle factors on stroke risk, the use of oral anticoagulants during the "coronavirus disease 2019" (COVID-19) pandemic, etc. We fully realize that there are gaps, unaddressed questions, and many areas of uncertainty and debate in the current knowledge of AF, and the physician's decision remains the most important factor in the management of AF.

The Prognostic Potential of Growth Differentiation Factor-15 on Bleeding Events and Patient Outcome after Cardiac Surgery - A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

GDF-15 (growth/differentiation factor 15) is induced by myocardial stretch, volume overload, inflammation and oxidative stress. Its expression is tightly linked with cardiovascular events as well as the risk for major bleeding and all-cause mortality. The present study aimed to elucidate the prognostic potential of GDF-15 in patients after cardiac surgery.

METHODS

504 patients undergoing elective cardiac valve and/or coronary artery bypass graft surgery were prospectively enrolled. GDF-15 levels were measured prior surgery to evaluate the impact on bleeding events, thromboembolic events and mortality.

RESULTS

Preoperative GDF-15 was associated with the primary endpoint of intra- and postoperative red blood cell transfusion (for bleeding risk factors adjusted [adj] OR [odds ratio] per 1-SD [standard deviation] of 1.62 [95%CI:1.31-2.00]; p<0.001). Higher concentrations of GDF-15 were observed in patients reaching the secondary endpoint of major or clinically relevant minor bleeding (for bleeding risk factors adj. OR per 1-SD of 1.70 [95%CI:1.05-2.75]; p=0.030) during the 1st postoperative year, but not for thromboembolic events. GDF-15 was a predictor for cardiovascular mortality (for comorbidities adj. HR [hazard ratio] per 1-SD of 1.67 [95%CI:1.23-2.27]; p=0.001) and all-cause mortality (for comorbidities adj. HR per 1-SD of 1.55 [95%CI:1.19-2.01]; p=0.001). A combined risk model of GDF-15 and EuroSCORE II outperformed the EuroSCORE II alone for long-term survival (c-index: 0.75 [95%CI: 0.70-0.80], p=0.046; net reclassification improvement: 33.6%, p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Preoperative GDF-15 concentration is an independent predictor for intra- and postoperative major bleeding, major bleeding during the first year and for long-term cardiovascular or all-cause mortality after cardiac surgery.

Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the commonest sustained cardiac rhythm disorder associated with an increased risk of stroke and systemic embolic events. The prevention of stroke using oral anticoagulants has been a pivotal component of AF management. The purpose of this review is to summarize recent advances in the treatment and prevention of stroke in AF over the last 5 years. We performed a comprehensive structured literature search using MEDLINE for publications from 11^th March 2015 through to 31^st December 2020. We focused mainly on primarily published research articles and systematic reviews including updates in different international guidelines. We found that improved awareness and detection of AF and use of clinical risk stratification are central to the identification of patients at risk of stroke who would benefit from oral anticoagulation. The recommendation of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants over warfarin in both efficacy and safety perspective is represented in all international guidelines. Beyond stroke prevention, there is a move to more holistic or integrated care management of AF, which has been shown to improve outcomes. We conclude that stroke prevention remains a dominant part of the management of patients with AF. Not all stroke risk factors carry equal weight, and many require additional scrutiny (e.g. severity of CAD, type of diabetes, duration of hypertension). The utilization of clinical risk scores to help decision-making should take into account that these scores are mere simplification tools to aid decision-making and the additional clinical benefit with more complex risk scores and addition of biomarkers is limited. Also, stroke and bleeding risks are dynamic and require regular review. Instead of arbitrarily categorizing patients into (artificial) low, moderate, and high stroke risk strata, anticoagulation should be offered to all patients with AF unless they are low risk with no risk factors for stroke. Stroke prevention is also part of the proactive, integrated care approach to holistic management of patients with AF, which can be simplified in the ABC (Atrial fibrillation Better Care) pathway: 'A' Avoid stroke/Anticoagulation; 'B' Better symptom management emphasising patient-centred symptom directed decisions on rate or rhythm control strategies; and 'C' refers to Cardiovascular risk and comorbidity optimization, including lifestyle changes and attention to patient values and preferences, as well as the psychological morbidity associated with AF.

Immunothrombosis and new-onset atrial fibrillation in the general population: the Rotterdam Study

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common age-related cardiac arrhythmia. The etiology underlying AF is still largely unknown. At the intersection of the innate immune system and hemostasis, immunothrombosis may be a possible cause of atrial remodeling, and therefore be an underlying cause of AF.

Methods

From 1990 to 2014, we followed participants aged 55 and over, free from AF at inclusion. Immunothrombosis factors fibrinogen, von Willebrand factor, ADAMTS13, and neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) levels were measured at baseline. Participants were followed until either onset of AF, loss-to-follow-up, or reaching the end-date of 01-01-2014. Cox proportional hazard modelling was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors.

Results

We followed 6174 participants (mean age 69.1 years, 57% women) for a median follow-up time of 12.8 years. 364 men (13.7%, incidence rate 13.0/1000 person-years) and 365 women (10.4%, incidence rate 8.9/1000 person-years) developed AF. We found no significant association between markers of immunothrombosis and new-onset AF after adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors [HR 1.00 (95% CI 0.93–1.08) for fibrinogen, 1.04 (0.97–1.12) for von Willebrand factor, 1.00 (1.00–1.01) for ADAMTS13, and 1.01 (0.94–1.09) for NETs]. In addition, we found no differences in associations between men and women.

Conclusion

We found no associations between markers of immunothrombosis and new-onset AF in the general population. Inflammation and immunothrombosis may be associated with AF through other cardiovascular risk factors or predisposing conditions of AF. Our findings challenge the added value of biomarkers in AF risk prediction.

Graphic abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00392-021-01938-4.

The interpretation of CHA2DS2-VASc score components in clinical practice: a joint survey by the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) Scientific Initiatives Committee, the EHRA Young Electrophysiologists, the Association of Cardiovascular Nursing and Allied Professionals, and the European Society of Cardiology Council on Stroke

This European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) Scientific Initiatives Committee, EHRA Young Electrophysiologists, Association of Cardiovascular Nursing and Allied Professionals, and European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Council on Stroke joint survey aimed to assess the interpretation of the CHA2DS2-VASc score components and preferred resources for calculating the score. Of 439 respondents, most were general cardiologists (46.7%) or electrophysiologists (EPs) (42.1%). The overall adherence to the ESC-defined scoring criteria was good. Most variation was observed in the interpretation of the significance of left ventricular ejection fraction and brain natriuretic peptide in the scoring for the 'C' component, as well as the 'one-off high reading of blood pressure' to score on the 'H' component. Greater confidence was expressed in scoring the 'H' component (72.3%) compared with the 'C' (46.2%) and 'V' (45.9%) components. Respondents mainly relied on their recall for the scoring of CHA2DS2-VASc score (64.2%). The three most favoured referencing resources varied among different professionals, with pharmacists and physicians relying mainly on memory or web/mobile app, whereas nurses favoured using a web/mobile app followed by memory or guidelines/protocol. In conclusion, this survey revealed overall good adherence to the correct definition of each component in scoring of the 'C', 'H', and 'V' elements of the CHA2DS2-VASc score, although the variation in their interpretations warrants further clarifications. The preferred referencing resources to calculate the score varied among different healthcare professionals. Guideline education to healthcare professionals and updated and unified online/mobile scoring tools are suggested to improve the accuracy in scoring the CHA2DS2-VASc score.

Refining age stratum of the C2HEST score for predicting incident atrial fibrillation in a hospital-based Chinese population

BACKGROUND

The C₂HEST score (C₂: coronary artery disease [CAD] / chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD] (1 point each); H: Hypertension; E: Elderly (Age≥75, doubled); S: Systolic heart failure (doubled); T: Thyroid disease (hyperthyroidism)) has been validated to predict incident atrial fibrillation (AF). Its performance in the hospital-based Chinese population has never been evaluated.

METHODS

Risk factors for incident AF were investigated in a hospital-based population. Comparison of the C₂HEST score and other clinical scores with the capacity of predicting incident AF was conducted using area under the curves (AUC), net reclassification index (NRI), integrated discriminative improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA). An age-stratified criterion was used to refine the C₂HEST score to form a modified C₂HEST score (mC₂HEST). The performance of the mC₂HEST score was also evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 23,523 patients entered the study with 520 developed AF during 2.84 ± 3.56 years of follow-up. Risk factors for incident AF included age, male sex, hypertension, CAD, COPD, previous ischemic stroke, hyperthyroidism, and heart failure. Age ≥65 years has significantly increased the risk of AF, which was considered as the age cutoff for a modified C₂HEST score (mC₂HEST). The risk of AF increased by 89% per one-point increase of the mC₂HEST score. The mC₂HEST score showed better predictive performance (AUC of 0.809) compared with the original C₂HEST (AUC of 0.752), CHA₂DS₂-VASc (0.756), HATCH (0.722), and HAVOC (0.758) scores, also as estimated by IDI, NRI and DCA. Among those enrolled after 2012, the mC₂HEST score had numerically higher AUC (0.849) compared with the C₂HEST score (0.826) and the other scores.

CONCLUSION

In a hospital-based Chinese population, by refining the age strata of the original C₂HEST score, the mC₂HEST score had significantly increased predictive accuracy and discriminative capability for incident AF. The clinical benefits of the application of novel mC₂HEST score needs further validation in multiple settings.

Serial assessment of biomarkers and the risk of stroke or systemic embolism and bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation in the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial

AIMS

We investigated whether patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) demonstrate detectable changes in biomarkers including high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT), N-terminal B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) over 12 months and whether such changes from baseline to 12 months are associated with the subsequent risk of stroke or systemic embolic events (S/SEE) and bleeding.

METHODS AND RESULTS

ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 was a randomized trial of the oral factor Xa inhibitor edoxaban in patients with AF and a CHADS2 score of ≥2. We performed a nested prospective biomarker study in 6308 patients, analysing hsTnT, NT-proBNP, and GDF-15 at baseline and 12 months. hsTnT was dynamic in 46.9% (≥2 ng/L change), NT-proBNP in 51.9% (≥200 pg/mL change), GDF-15 in 45.6% (≥300 pg/mL change) during 12 months. In a Cox regression model, upward changes in log2-transformed hsTnT and NT-proBNP were associated with increased risk of S/SEE [adjusted hazard ratio (adj-HR) 1.74; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.36-2.23 and adj-HR 1.27; 95% CI 1.07-1.50, respectively] and log2-transformed GDF-15 with bleeding (adj-HR 1.40; 95% CI 1.02-1.92). Reassessment of ABC-stroke (age, prior stroke/transient ischaemic attack, hsTnT, and NT-proBNP) and ABC-bleeding (age, prior bleeding, haemoglobin, hsTnT, and GDF-15) risk scores at 12 months accurately reclassified a significant proportion of patients compared with their baseline risk [net reclassification improvement (NRI) 0.50; 95% CI 0.36-0.65; NRI 0.42; 95% CI 0.33-0.51, respectively].

CONCLUSION

Serial assessment of hsTnT, NT-proBNP, and GDF-15 revealed that a substantial proportion of patients with AF had dynamic values. Greater increases in these biomarkers measured over 1 year are associated with important clinical outcomes in anticoagulated patients with AF.

Atrial Fibrillation after Cardiac Surgery-To Infinity and Beyond!

No Abstract

Stroke Risk Scores as Predictors of Severe Outcomes in Atrial Fibrillation: A Comprehensive Review

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most frequent sustained arrhythmia. It increases the risk of stroke, heart failure, death, hospitalizations, and costs.

AREA OF UNCERTAINTY

Several scores were introduced to stratify the stroke risk and need for anticoagulation in patients (pts) with AF . CHA2DS2-VASc, the most frequently used score, as well as other stroke risk scores have been additionally applied to estimate outcomes for different other conditions, with inhomogeneous results. To date, there has been no consensus regarding the usefulness of these scores to estimate outcomes outside of thromboembolic risk assessment, and their value in estimating different end-point outcomes is still a subject of debate. We conducted this review to investigate whether the stroke risk scores' utility can be extended for the prediction of other severe outcomes in pts with AF.

DATA SOURCES

We searched PubMed database and included studies that stratified the outcome of pts with AF by different stroke risk scores. We also included studies with a separate analysis of the pts with AF subpopulation.

RESULTS

Mortality rates increased with higher CHADS2 [from 2.28% (2.00%-2.58%) to 13.2% (8.24%-20.8%) per year] and CHA2DS2-VASc scores [risk ratio 1.26 (1.21-1.32), P < 0.0001 for score ≥3]. CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc predicted poor outcome in stroke [odds ratio (OR) ranging 1.42-6 for CHADS2 and 1.3-7.3 for CHA2DS2-VASc]. Acute myocardial infarction rates increased with higher CHADS2 [OR 2.120 (1.942-2.315) P < 0.001] and CHA2DS2-VASc [OR 1.63 (1.53-1.75), P < 0.001]. Limited data were reported for ABC( Age, Biomarkers, Clinical histoty) and R2CHADS2. No statistically significant correlation was found for major bleeding.

CONCLUSIONS

CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc are useful tools in identifying pts with AF at higher risk for all-cause death, regardless of other pathologies. Both scores correlated with the development of acute myocardial infarction, cardiovascular hospitalization, outcome in stroke, major adverse cardiovascular events, and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebral events, but not with serious bleeding.

Beyond the 2020 guidelines on atrial fibrillation of the European society of cardiology

The most recent atrial fibrillation (AF) guidelines delivered by European Society of Cardiology (ESC) offer an updated approach to AF management, with the perspective of improved characterization of the arrhythmia, the cardiac substrate and the patients profile in terms of associated risk factors and comorbidities. Recommendations were based on careful scrutiny and assessment of all available evidence with the final aim to offer to practitioners a lower level of uncertainty in the complex process of decision making for patients with AF. The 2020 ESC guidelines on AF propose a paradigm shift in the clinical approach to AF patients, moving from a single-domain AF classification to comprehensive characterization of AF patients. Given the complex nature of AF, an integrated holistic management of AF patients is suggested by the guidelines for improving patients outcomes through the formal introduction of the CC (Confirm AF and Characterize AF) to ABC (Atrial fibrillation Better Care) pathway. In line with this concept, these new guidelines underline the importance of a more comprehensive management of AF patients which should not be limited to simply prescribe oral anticoagulation or decide between a rhythm or rate control strategy. Indeed, each step of the ABC pathway represents one of the pivotal pillars in the management of AF and only a holistic approach has the potential to improve patients' outcomes. In this review we will discuss the background that supports some of the new recommendations of 2020 ESC guidelines, with important implications for daily management of AF patients.

Stroke risk scores to predict hospitalization for acute decompensated heart failure in atrial fibrillation patients

Introduction. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most frequent hospitalized arrhythmia. It associates increased risk of death, stroke and heart failure (HF). Stroke risk scores, especially CHA₂DS₂-VASc, have been applied also for populations with different diseases. There is, however, limited data focusing on the ability of these scores to predict HF decompensation.Methods. We conducted a retrospective observational study on a cohort of 204 patients admitted for cardiovascular pathology to the Cardiology Ward of our tertiary University Hospital. We aimed to determine whether the stroke risk scores could predict hospitalisations for acute decompensated HF in AF patients.Results. C-statistics for CHADS₂ and R₂CHADS₂ showed a modest predictive ability for hospitalisation with decompensated HF (CHADS₂: AUC 0.631 p = 0.003; 95%CI 0.560-0.697. R₂CHADS₂: AUC 0.619; 95%CI 0.548-0.686; p = 0.004), a marginal correlation for CHA₂DS_2-VASc (AUC 0.572 95%CI 0.501-0.641 with a p value of only 0.09, while the other scores failed to show a correlation. A CHADS₂ ≥ 2 showed a RR = 2.96, p<0.0001 for decompensated HF compared to a score <2. For R₂CHADS₂ ≥ 2, RR = 2.41, p = 0.001 compared to a score <2. For CHA₂DS_2-VASc ≥ 2 RR = 2.18 p = 0.1, compared to CHA₂DS₂-VASc <2. The correlation coefficients showed a weak correlation for CHADS₂ (r = 0.216; p = 0.001) and even weaker for R₂CHADS₂ (r = 0.197; p = 0.0047 and CHA₂DS₂-VASc (r = 0.14; p = 0.035).Conclusions. Among AF patients, CHADS_2, CHA₂DS₂-VASc and R₂CHADS₂ were associated with the risk of hospitalisation for decompensated HF while ABC and ATRIA failed to show an association. However, predictive accuracy was modest and the clinical utility for this outcome remains to be determined.

The Atrial fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway and cardiac complications in atrial fibrillation: a potential sex-based difference. The ATHERO-AF study

BACKGROUND

An integrated care approach is recommended to optimize management of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The impact of the Atrial fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway on major adverse cardiac events (MACE), which are the main causes of death in AF, has not been explored.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We investigated the association between ABC compliance and MACE incidence in 1157 (2690 patient-years) nonvalvular AF patients from the ATHERO-AF study. A subgroup analysis by sex and high cardiovascular risk patients as defined by a 2MACE score ≥3 was performed.

RESULTS

Overall, 428 (37%) patients composed the ABC-compliant group. During a median follow up of 23 (IQR 12-37) months, 64 MACE occurred (2.38%/year). Kaplan Meier curve analysis showed a higher rate of MACE in ABC non-compliant group compared to the ABC-compliant (log-rank test p=0.006). The risk of MACE increased by the number of non-fulfilled ABC criteria. On multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, the ABC non-compliance was associated with an increased risk of MACE (Hazard ratio (HR) 2.244, 95% Confidence Interval (95%CI) 1.129-4.462). Men were more likely to have suboptimal anticoagulation control (group A), while uncontrolled symptoms were more frequent in women. The association between non-ABC and MACE was more evident in men than women (HR 3.647, 95%CI 1.294-10.277) and in patients with 2MACE score ≥3 (HR 1.728, 95%CI 1.209-2.472).

CONCLUSION

An integrated care ABC approach is associated with a reduced risk of MACE in the AF population, especially in men and in patients at high risk of MACE.

A novel prognostic tool to predict mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation: The BASIC-AF risk score

BACKGROUND

This study sought to develop and validate a risk score to predict mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) after a hospitalization for cardiac reasons.

METHODS

The new risk score was derived from a prospective cohort of hospitalized patients with concurrent AF. The outcome measures were all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Random forest was used for variable selection. A risk points model with predictor variables was developed by weighted Cox regression coefficients and was internally validated by bootstrapping.

RESULTS

In total, 1130 patients with AF were included. During a median follow-up of 2 years, 346 (30.6%) patients died and 250 patients had a cardiovascular cause of death. N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity troponin-T were the most important predictors of mortality, followed by indexed left atrial volume, history and type of heart failure, age, history of diabetes mellitus, and intraventricular conduction delay, all forming the BASIC-AF risk score (Biomarkers, Age, ultraSound, Intraventricular conduction delay, and Clinical history). The score had good discrimination for all-cause (c-index = 0.85 and 95% CI 0.82-0.88) and cardiovascular death (c-index = 0.84 and 95% CI 0.81-0.87). The predicted probability of mortality varied more than 50-fold across deciles and adjusted well to observed mortality rates. A decision curve analysis revealed a significant net benefit of using the BASIC-AF risk score to predict the risk of death, when compared with other existing risk schemes.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and internally validated a well-performing novel risk score for predicting death in patients with AF. The BASIC-AF risk score included routinely assessed parameters, selected through machine-learning algorithms, and may assist in tailored risk stratification and management of these patients.

Stroke and Thromboembolism in Warfarin-Treated Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: Comparing the CHA2DS2-VASc and GARFIELD-AF Risk Scores

BACKGROUND

 Evaluation of thromboembolic risk is essential in anticoagulated atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. The CHA₂DS₂-VASc score is largely validated and recommended by most guidelines. The GARFIELD-AF Stroke score has been proposed as an alternative risk score.

METHODS

 We analyzed warfarin-treated patients from SPORTIF III and V studies. Any thromboembolic event (TE) was an adjudicated study outcome. We compared the two scores' capacity in predicting any TE occurrence.

RESULTS

 A total of 3,665 patients (median [interquartile range] age: 72 [66-77] years; 30.5% female) were included in this analysis. After a mean (standard deviation) follow-up of 566.3 (142.5) days, 148 (4.03%) TEs were recorded. Both continuous CHA₂DS₂-VASc and GARFIELD-AF were associated with TE (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.37, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.22-1.53 and HR: 2.43, 95% CI: 1.72-3.42), with modest predictive ability (c-indexes: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.59-0.68 and 0.61, 95% CI: 0.56-0.66, respectively), with no differences. CHA₂DS₂-VASc quartiles showed an increasing cumulative risk, while in GARFIELD-AF only the highest quartile (Q4) demonstrated an increased TE risk. On multivariate Cox regression analysis, CHA₂DS₂-VASc quartiles were associated with increasing risk of TE, whereas for GARFIELD-AF only Q4 showed an association with TE. Discrimination analysis showed that GARFIELD-AF quartiles were associated with a 48.7% reduction in discriminatory ability. Using decision curve analysis, CHA₂DS₂-VASc was associated with improved clinical usefulness and net clinical benefit, compared with GARFIELD-AF.

CONCLUSION

 In a warfarin-treated trial cohort of AF patients, both CHA₂DS₂-VASc and GARFIELD-AF Stroke scores were associated with adjudicated TE events, with modest predictive capacity. The simpler CHA₂DS₂-VASc score improved discriminatory capacity compared with the more complex GARFIELD-AF score, demonstrating improved clinical usefulness and net clinical benefit.

Stroke and bleeding risk stratification in atrial fibrillation: a critical appraisal

Atrial fibrillation (AF) significantly increases the risk of stroke and, therefore, stroke prevention is an essential component of the management for patients with AF. This requires formal assessment of the individual risk of stroke to determine if the patient is eligible for oral anticoagulation (OAC), and if so, their risk of bleeding on OAC, before a treatment decision regarding stroke prevention is made. Risk of stroke is not homogenous; it depends on the presence or absence of risk factors. A plethora of stroke and bleeding risk factors has been identified, including common and less-well established clinical risk factors, plus imaging, urine, and blood biomarkers. Consequently, there are several stroke and bleeding risk stratification scores available and this article provides an overview of them, the risk factors included and how they are scored, and provides a critical appraisal of them. The review also discusses the debate regarding whether female sex is a risk factor or a risk modifier, and highlights the dynamic nature of both stroke and bleeding risk and the need to re-assess these risks periodically to ensure treatment is optimal to reduce the risk of adverse outcomes. This review also summarizes the recommended stroke and bleeding risk stratification scores from all current major international guidelines.

Pilot Study on the Role of Circulating miRNAs for the Improvement of the Predictive Ability of the 2MACE Score in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation

Background. Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk for stroke but also for non-stroke major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). The 2MACE score was recently proposed to predict these events. Since the interest of microRNAs (miRNAs) in cardiovascular diseases is increasing, we aimed to investigate whether miRNA levels may improve the predictive performance of the 2MACE score. Methods. We included consecutive AF patients stable on vitamin K antagonist therapy. Blood samples were drawn at baseline and plasma expression of miRNAs was assessed. During a median of 7.6 (interquartile range (IQR) 5.4–8.0) years, the occurrence of any MACE (nonfatal myocardial infarction/cardiac revascularization and cardiovascular death) was recorded. Results. We conducted a miRNA expression analysis in plasma from 19 patients with and without cardiovascular events. The miRNAs selected (miR-22-3p, miR-107, and miR-146a-5p) were later measured in 166 patients (47% male, median age 77 (IQR 70–81) years) and all were associated with a higher risk of MACE. The addition of miR-107 and miR-146a-5p to the 2MACE score significantly increased the predictive performance (c-indexes: 0.759 vs. 0.694, p = 0.004), and the model with three miRNAs also improved the predictive performance compared to the original score (c-indexes: 0.762 vs. 0.694, p = 0.012). 2MACE models with the addition of miRNAs presented higher net benefit and potential clinical usefulness. Conclusions. Higher miR-22-3p andmiR-107 and lower miR-146a-5p levels were associated with a higher risk of MACE. The addition of these miRNAs to the 2MACE score significantly increased the predictive performance for MACE, which may aid to some extent in the decision-making process about risk stratification in AF.

A Novel ABC Score Predicts Mortality in Non-ST-Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome Patients Who underwent Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

OBJECTIVE

 In the present study, we aimed to establish a novel score to predict long-term mortality of non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

METHODS

 A total of 2,174 NSTE-ACS patients from the CORFCHD-ZZ study were enrolled as the derivation cohort. The validation cohort including 1,808 NSTE-ACS patients were from the CORFCHD-PCI study. Receiver operating characteristic analysis and area under the curve (AUC) evaluation were used to select the candidate variables. The model performance was validated internally and externally. The primary outcome was cardiac mortality (CM). We also explored the model performance for all-cause mortality (ACM).

RESULTS

 Initially, 28 risk factors were selected and ranked according to their AUC values. Finally, we selected age, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and creatinine to develop a novel prediction model named "ABC" model. The ABC model had a high discriminatory ability for both CM (C-index: 0.774, p < 0.001) and ACM (C-index: 0.758, p < 0.001) in the derivation cohort. In the validation cohort, the C-index of CM was 0.802 (p < 0.001) and that of ACM was 0.797 (p < 0.001), which suggested good discrimination. In addition, this model had adequate calibration in both the derivation and validation cohorts. Furthermore, the ABC score outperformed the GRACE score to predict mortality in NSTE-ACS patients who underwent PCI.

CONCLUSION

 In the present study, we developed and validated a novel model to predict mortality in patients with NSTE-ACS who underwent PCI. This model can be used as a credible tool for risk assessment and management of NSTE-ACS after PCI.

Treatment strategies for patients with atrial fibrillation and anticoagulant-associated intracranial hemorrhage: an overview of the pharmacotherapy

INTRODUCTION

Oral anticoagulants (OAC) reduce stroke/systemic embolism and mortality risks in atrial fibrillation (AF). However, there is an inherent bleeding risk with OAC, where intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) is the most feared, disabling, and lethal complication of this therapy. Therefore, the optimal management of OAC-associated ICH is not well defined despite multiple suggested strategies.

AREAS COVERED

In this review, the authors describe the severity and risk factors for OAC-associated ICH and the associated implications for using DOACs in AF patients. We also provide an overview of the management of OAC-associated ICH and treatment reversal strategies, including specific and nonspecific reversal agents as well as a comprehensive summary of the evidence about the resumption of DOAC and the optimal timing.

EXPERT OPINION

In the setting of an ICH, supportive care/measures are needed, and reversal of anticoagulation with specific agents (including administration of vitamin K, prothrombin complex concentrates, idarucizumab and andexanet alfa) should be considered. Most patients will likely benefit from restarting anticoagulation after an ICH and permanently withdrawn of OAC is associated with worse clinical outcomes. Although the timing of OAC resumption is still under debate, reintroduction after 4-8 weeks of the bleeding event may be possible, after a multidisciplinary approach to decision-making.