Predicting mortality in cirrhosis--serum sodium helps

Development of a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis and sepsis

In this study, we aimed to investigate the risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with cirrhosis and sepsis, establish and validate the nomogram. This retrospective study included patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis and sepsis in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV). Models were compared by the area under the curve (AUC), integrated discriminant improvement (IDI), net reclassification index (NRI) and decision curve analysis (DCA). A total of 1,696 patients with cirrhosis and sepsis were included in the final cohort. Our final model included the following 9 variables: age, heartrate, total bilirubin (TBIL), glucose, sodium, anion gap (AG), fungal infections, mechanical ventilation, and vasopressin. The nomogram were constructed based on these variables. The AUC values of the nomograms were 0.805 (95% CI 0.776-0.833), which provided significantly higher discrimination compared to that of SOFA score [0.684 (95% CI 0.647-0.720)], MELD-Na [0.672 (95% CI 0.636-0.709)] and ABIC [0.674(95% CI 0.638-0.710)]. We established the first nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis and sepsis based on these factors. This nomogram can performs well and facilitates clinicians to identify people at high risk of in-hospital mortality.

Clinical Implications, Evaluation, and Management of Hyponatremia in Cirrhosis

Hyponatremia is the most common electrolyte abnormality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis on Liver Transplantation (LT) waiting list. Most of these patients have dilutional or hypervolemic hyponatremia secondary to splanchnic vasodilatation. Excessive secretion of the antidiuretic hormone also plays an important role. Hypervolemic hyponatremia is commonly associated with refractory ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, and hepatic encephalopathy. Although uncommon, the use of diuretics and laxatives can cause hypovolemic hyponatremia that is characterized by the striking absence of ascites or pedal edema. Clinical features are often nonspecific and depend on the acuity of onset rather than the absolute value of serum sodium. Symptoms may be subtle, including nausea, lethargy, weakness, or anorexia. However, rarely patients may present with confusion, seizures, psychosis, or coma. Treatment includes discontinuation of diuretics, beta-blockers, and albumin infusion. Hypertonic saline (3%) infusion may be used in patients with very low serum sodium (<110 mmol/L) or when patients present with seizures or coma. Short-term use of Vasopressin (V₂) receptor antagonists may also be used to normalize sodium levels prior to LT. However, all these measures may be futile, and LT remains the definite treatment in these patients to improve survival. In this review, we describe the classification, pathogenesis of hyponatremia, and its clinical implications in patients with cirrhosis. Approach to these patients along with management will also be discussed briefly.

Hyponatremia and Its Correlation With Hepatic Encephalopathy and Severity of Liver Disease

Background and objective

Hepatic cirrhosis is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Patients with cirrhosis frequently develop complications such as ascites, variceal bleeding, and hepatic encephalopathy (HE). The clinical manifestations of HE range from the mildly altered level of sensorium to severely altered consciousness levels, difficulty in judgment, the day-night reversal of sleep, flapping tremor of hands, and irrelevant talking or speech. Patients with hyponatremia are at a higher risk of developing HE and electroencephalographic abnormalities. The severity of hyponatremia is directly related to the deterioration in terms of grades of HE. Our study sought to determine the frequency of hyponatremia in cirrhotic patients and its correlation with the frequency and severity of HE.

Methodology

This study was carried out at the inpatient department of medicine in a tertiary care hospital in Pakistan. A total of 260 patients of both genders with hepatic cirrhosis were approached. After taking relevant history and physical examination, the venous blood sample of each patient was drawn and sent to the institutional laboratory for estimation of serum electrolytes, liver function tests (LFTs), renal parameters (RPMs), prothrombin time (PT), activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), and international normalized ratio (INR). We classified the HE according to the West Haven classification system. Mild to moderate encephalopathy was classified under grades I-II, while severe encephalopathy was classified under grades III-IV. We documented the severity of liver disease according to the Child-Pugh score criteria. All data were analyzed by using SPSS Statistics version 25.0 (IBM, Armonk, NY). We reported the data as means along with the standard error.

Results

Overall, the serum sodium levels of the subjects ranged from 115 to 142 meq/L with a mean of 129.11 ±6.53 meq/L. In patients with hyponatremia, it ranged from 115 to 127 meq/L (mean 121.41 ±5.17 meq/L). Hyponatremia was present in 96 (36.9%) patients. Among these, 51 (53.12%) were male and 45 (46.8%) were female; 24 (9.2%) patients had mild hyponatremia, 56 (21.5%) had moderate, and 16 (6.2%) had severe hyponatremia. HE was present in 176 (67.7%) patients. HE grade I was present in 54 (20.8%), grade II in 62 (23.8%), grade III in 32 (12.3%), and grade IV in 28 (10.8%) patients. In 96 patients with hyponatremia, 84 were found to have HE (p-value: <0.001).

Conclusion

Based on our findings, cirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis infections have a variable presence of low sodium levels. Sodium levels of <130 meq/L were associated with higher morbidity and mortality rate. Moreover, patients with lower levels of sodium had higher grades of HE.

Immune status affects the clinical features and outcomes of adult patients with respiratory adenovirus infection

The differences in the clinical features and outcomes of respiratory adenovirus infection (RAI) between immunocompetent and immunocompromised adult patients remain unclear. Thirty-nine adult RAI patients, including 28 (71.8%) immunocompetent patients and 11 (28.2%) immunocompromised patients were enrolled in this retrospective study. Demographic characteristics, symptoms, laboratory tests, radiographic findings, therapies and clinical outcomes were compared between the two groups. We found fever (94.9%), cough (66.7%) and sputum production (56.4%) were the most frequent symptoms. Compared with immunocompetent RAI patients, the immunocompromised RAI patients were more likely to experience anaemia (g/l; 90.8 ± 24.0 vs 134.3 ± 14.6, P < 0.001), thrombocytopaenia ( × 10⁹/l; 116.9 ± 92.7 vs 178.4 ± 74.6, P = 0.037), hypoalbuminaemia (g/l; 29.6 ± 5.5 vs 36.9 ± 5.2, P < 0.001), hyponatraemia (mmol/l; 134.8 ± 5.6 vs 138.5 ± 3.9, P = 0.026) and low levels of cholinesterase (U/l; 2650.5 ± 1467.4 vs 5892.8 ± 1875.1, P < 0.001). Chest computed tomography (CT) scans indicated that lung infiltrate was the most common finding (64.1%). Immunocompromised patients had a higher likelihood of bilateral lung involvement (72.7%) and lower lobe involvement (81.8%) of both lungs. The hospitalized mortality rate was 27.3% in immunocompromised RAI patients, but no death occurred among immunocompetent RAI patients (P = 0.018). Our data suggested immunocompromised RAI patients had worse laboratory test results, more bilateral lung and lower lobe involvement and higher in-hospital mortality compared with immunocompetent RAI patients.

Hyponatremia in Cirrhosis: An Update

Hyponatremia is frequently seen in patients with ascites secondary to advanced cirrhosis and portal hypertension. Although not apparent in the early stages of cirrhosis, the progression of cirrhosis and portal hypertension leads to splanchnic vasodilation, and this leads to the activation of compensatory mechanisms such as renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS), sympathetic nervous system, and antidiuretic hormone (ADH) to ameliorate low circulatory volume. The net effect is the avid retention of sodium and water to compensate for the low effective circulatory volume, resulting in the development of ascites. These compensatory mechanisms lead to impairment of the kidneys to eliminate solute-free water in decompensated cirrhosis. Nonosmotic secretion of antidiuretic hormone (ADH), also known as arginine vasopressin, further worsens excess water retention and thereby hyponatremia. The management of hyponatremia in this setting is a challenge as conventional therapies for hyponatremia including fluid restriction and correction of hypokalemia are frequently inefficacious. In this review, we discuss the pathophysiology, complications, and various treatment modalities, including albumin infusion, selective vasopressin receptor antagonists, or hypertonic saline for patients with severe hyponatremia and those awaiting liver transplantation.

Is Exaggerated Release of Arginine Vasopressin an Endocrine Disorder? Pathophysiology and Treatment

Exaggerated release of arginine vasopressin (AVP) is profoundly involved in impaired water excretion and related hyponatremia. Such disorders underlie syndromes of inappropriate secretion of antidiuretic hormone (SIADH) and edematous diseases, such as congestive heart failure and decompensated liver cirrhosis. All the causes are fundamentally from non-endocrine diseases. AVP-induced water retention could produce hyponatremia, and further accelerate poor long-term outcome of edematous diseases. Administration of AVP V₂ receptor antagonists verifies how much AVP is involved in the pathogenesis of the impaired water excretion. The present paper demonstrated that exaggerated release of AVP plays a crucial role as an accessory endocrine disorder in pathological states of water retention and dilutional hyponatremia in non-endocrine disorders.

Electrolyte and Acid-Base Disturbances in End-Stage Liver Disease: A Physiopathological Approach

Electrolyte and acid-base disturbances are frequent in patients with end-stage liver disease; the underlying physiopathological mechanisms are often complex and represent a diagnostic and therapeutic challenge to the physician. Usually, these disorders do not develop in compensated cirrhotic patients, but with the onset of the classic complications of cirrhosis such as ascites, renal failure, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and variceal bleeding, multiple electrolyte, and acid-base disturbances emerge. Hyponatremia parallels ascites formation and is a well-known trigger of hepatic encephalopathy; its management in this particular population poses a risky challenge due to the high susceptibility of cirrhotic patients to osmotic demyelination. Hypokalemia is common in the setting of cirrhosis: multiple potassium wasting mechanisms both inherent to the disease and resulting from its management make these patients particularly susceptible to potassium depletion even in the setting of normokalemia. Acid-base disturbances range from classical respiratory alkalosis to high anion gap metabolic acidosis, almost comprising the full acid-base spectrum. Because most electrolyte and acid-base disturbances are managed in terms of their underlying trigger factors, a systematic physiopathological approach to their diagnosis and treatment is required.

Comparison of the prognostic value of Chronic Liver Failure Consortium scores and traditional models for predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Recently, the European Association for the Study of the Liver - Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) Consortium defined two new prognostic scores, according to the presence or absence of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF): the CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) and the CLIF-C Acute Decompensation score (CLIF-C ADs). We sought to compare their accuracy in predicting 30- and 90-day mortality with some of the existing models: Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-Na, integrated MELD (iMELD), MELD to serum sodium ratio index (MESO), Refit MELD and Refit MELD-Na.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study that evaluated all admissions due to decompensated cirrhosis in 2 centers between 2011 and 2014. At admission each score was assessed, and the discrimination ability was compared by measuring the area under the ROC curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

A total of 779 hospitalizations were evaluated. Two hundred and twenty-two patients met criteria for ACLF (25.9%). The 30- and 90-day mortality were respectively 17.7 and 37.3%. CLIF-C ACLFs presented an AUROC for predicting 30- and 90-day mortality of 0.684 (95% CI: 0.599-0.770) and 0.666 (95% CI: 0.588-0.744) respectively. No statistically significant differences were found when compared to traditional models. For patients without ACLF, CLIF-C ADs had an AUROC for predicting 30- and 90-day mortality of 0.689 (95% CI: 0.614-0.763) and 0.672 (95% CI: 0.624-0.720) respectively. When compared to other scores, it was only statistically superior to MELD for predicting 30-day mortality (p=0.0296).

CONCLUSIONS

The new CLIF-C scores were not statistically superior to the traditional models, with the exception of CLIF-C ADs for predicting 30-day mortality.

The performance of prognostic models as predictors of mortality in patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Although several prognostic models have been proposed for cirrhotic patients listed for transplantation, the performance of these scores as predictors of mortality in patients admitted for acute decompensation of cirrhosis has not been satisfactorily investigated.

AIMS

To study MELD, MELD-Na, MESO, iMELD, Refit-MELD and Refit MELD-Na models as prognostic predictors in cirrhotic patients admitted for acute decompensation, and to compare their performance between admission and 48 hours of hospitalization to predict in-hospital mortality.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This cohort study included cirrhotic patients admitted to hospital due to complications of the disease. Individuals were evaluated on admission and after 48 h of hospitalization, and mortality was evaluated during the present admission.

RESULTS

One hundred and twenty-three subjects with a mean age of 54.26 ± 10.79 years were included; 76.4% were male. Mean MELD score was 16.43 ± 7.08 and 52.0% of patients were Child-Pugh C. Twenty-seven patients (22.0%) died during hospitalization. Similar areas under the curve (AUROCs) for prognosis of mortality were observed when different models were compared on admission (P > 0.05) and after 48 h of hospitalization (P > 0.05). When models executed after 48 h of hospitalization were compared to their corresponding model calculated on admission, significantly higher AUROCs were obtained for all models (P < 0.05), except for MELD-Na (P = 0.075) and iMELD (P = 0.119).

CONCLUSION

The studied models showed similar accuracy as predictors of in-hospital mortality in cirrhotic patients admitted for acute decompensation. However, the performance of these models was significantly better when applied 48 h after admission when compared to their calculation on admission.

Moderate/Severe hyponatremia increases the risk of death among hospitalized Chinese human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome patients

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate whether the serum sodium concentration is associated with the progression and long-term prognosis of Chinese HIV/AIDS patients.

METHODS

Three hundred and eighty seven hospitalized patients were recruited into this retrospective cohort study. The strata of serum sodium concentration were moderate/severe hyponatremia, mild hyponatremia and normonatremia. Disease progression was estimated using CD4 counts and the WHO clinical stage. Correlation analysis was used to evaluate the serum sodium concentration with disease progression. The Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazards model were used to analyze the effect of different serum sodium levels on survival.

RESULTS

In this study 206 patients (53.2%) had hyponatremia, including 10.6% patients with moderate/severe hyponatremia and 42.6% with mild hyponatremia. The serum sodium concentration was significantly correlated with the HIV/AIDS progression (P<0.001). During the follow-up, 100 patients (25.6%) died. The cumulative survival rates of HIV/AIDS patients were 47.8% ± 8.5% in patients with moderate/severe hyponatremia, 59.8% ± 5.0% with mild hyponatremia and 79.9% ± 3.4% with normonatremia (log-rank P<0.001). After adjusting for sex, age, WHO stage, CD4 count, hemoglobin and albumin, the relative hazard was 3.5 (95% CI: 1.9-6.5) for patients with moderate/severe hyponatremia (P<0.001), and 1.5 (95% CI: 0.9-2.4) for those with mild hyponatremia (P = 0.161), compared with normonatremic patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The serum sodium level is closely correlated with the severity of patients. Only moderate/severe hyponatremia affects the prognosis of Chinese HIV/AIDS patients. Earlier intensive medical managements(including HAART)are necessary to increase the survival rates of Chinese HIV/AIDS patients with moderate/severe hyponatremia.

How is organ transplantation depicted in internal medicine and transplantation journals

BACKGROUND

In their book Spare Parts, published in 1992, Fox and Swazey criticized various aspects of organ transplantation, including the routinization of the procedure, ignorance regarding its inherent uncertainties, and the ethos of transplant professionals. Using this work as a frame of reference, we analyzed articles on organ transplantation published in internal medicine and transplantation journals between 1995 and 2008 to see whether Fox and Swazey's critiques of organ transplantation were still relevant.

METHODS

Using the PubMed database, we retrieved 1,120 articles from the top ten internal medicine journals and 4,644 articles from the two main transplantation journals (Transplantation and American Journal of Transplantation). Out of the internal medicine journal articles, we analyzed those in which organ transplantation was the main topic (349 articles). A total of 349 articles were randomly selected from the transplantation journals for content analysis.

RESULTS

In our sample, organ transplantation was described in positive terms and was presented as a routine treatment. Few articles addressed ethical issues, patients' experiences and uncertainties related to organ transplantation. The internal medicine journals reported on more ethical issues than the transplantation journals. The most important ethical issues discussed were related to the justice principle: organ allocation, differential access to transplantation, and the organ shortage.

CONCLUSION

Our study provides insight into representations of organ transplantation in the transplant and general medical communities, as reflected in medical journals. The various portrayals of organ transplantation in our sample of articles suggest that Fox and Swazey's critiques of the procedure are still relevant.

Predictive value of Refit Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, Refit Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Na, and pre-existing scoring system for 3-month mortality in Korean patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) has been widely used for predicting short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis in the U.S. A modification of the MELD score was published in 2011. This was validated for Korean patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

The medical records of patients with cirrhosis who were admitted to Konkuk University Hospital from 2006 to 2010 were retrospectively reviewed. The predictive value for 3-month mortality was compared between the Refit MELD, Refit MELD-Na, MELD, MELD-Na, and Child-Pugh score. The comparison was performed by calculating the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

A total of 882 patients were enrolled and 77 (8.7%) died within 3 months. The most common etiology was alcohol (45.4%) followed by hepatitis B (34.2%). The AUROCs of the Refit MELD, Refit MELD-Na, MELD, MELD-Na, and Child-Pugh score were 0.842, 0.817, 0.844, 0.848, and 0.831, respectively. The Refit MELD-Na showed a lower value than MELD-Na (P = 0.0005), MELD (P = 0.0190), and the Refit MELD (P = 0.0174). When the patients with hepatitis B, C, and alcoholic cirrhosis were analyzed, the AUROCs were 0.960, 0.920, 0.953, 0.951, 0.896, 0.959, 0.956, 0.947, 0.956, 0.943, and 0.746, 0.707, 0.752, 0.747, 0.755.

CONCLUSIONS

The improvement in predictive value for 3-month mortality was not definite. The Refit MELD-Na especially showed the lowest value. This result may have been due to differences in underlying etiology of cirrhosis between Korea and the U.S. Thus, a larger prospective study is warranted.

A decade of model for end-stage liver disease: lessons learned and need for re-evaluation of allocation policies

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) driven liver allocation system has been in place for 10 years now. Understanding what the driving forces were, what principles were developed and employed, and assessing how these have stood the test of time will help future policy makers further refine the system.

RECENT FINDINGS

Prior to development of the MELD system, policymakers had limited data and organ allocation policy development was rarely systematic or evidence-based and was not necessarily centered on the patient. The MELD process focused on patient-specific variables and validation of the risk prediction models to be sure the system would function reasonably well across the spectrum of potential candidates and that it did not impose artificial categorizations of patients. In addition, the transplant community focused on assessing the effects of this policy change which was also something new.

SUMMARY

Numerous publications since have reported outcomes for MELD-based liver allocation here in the United States and in many other areas around the world. Some of these reports have suggested changes to the MELD equation or other ways to adapt the system to more accurately reflect the need for transplant. The transparency that this type of system brings allows for much more rigorous assessment of results and for highlighting areas for improvement toward a more fair, equitable, and utilitarian system.

Donor-recipient matching: myths and realities

Liver transplant outcomes keep improving, with refinements of surgical technique, immunosuppression and post-transplant care. However, these excellent results and the limited number of organs available have led to an increasing number of potential recipients with end-stage liver disease worldwide. Deaths on waiting lists have led liver transplant teams maximize every organ offered and used in terms of pre and post-transplant benefit. Donor-recipient (D-R) matching could be defined as the technique to check D-R pairs adequately associated by the presence of the constituents of some patterns from donor and patient variables. D-R matching has been strongly analysed and policies in donor allocation have tried to maximize organ utilization whilst still protecting individual interests. However, D-R matching has been written through trial and error and the development of each new score has been followed by strong discrepancies and controversies. Current allocation systems are based on isolated or combined donor or recipient characteristics. This review intends to analyze current knowledge about D-R matching methods, focusing on three main categories: patient-based policies, donor-based policies and combined donor-recipient systems. All of them lay on three mainstays that support three different concepts of D-R matching: prioritarianism (favouring the worst-off), utilitarianism (maximising total benefit) and social benefit (cost-effectiveness). All of them, with their pros and cons, offer an exciting controversial topic to be discussed. All of them together define D-R matching today, turning into myth what we considered a reality in the past.

Medicare, ethics, and reflexive longevity: governing time and treatment in an aging society

The clinical activities that constitute longevity making in the United States are perhaps the quintessential example of a dynamic modern temporality, characterized by the quest for risk reduction, the powerful progress narratives of science and medicine, and the personal responsibility of calculating the worth of more time in relation to medical options and age. This article explores how medicine materializes and problematizes time through a discussion of ethicality-in this case, the form of governance in which scientific evidence, Medicare policy and clinical knowledge and practice organize first, what becomes "thinkable" as the best medicine, and second, how that kind of understanding shapes a telos of living. Using liver disease and liver transplantation in the United States as my example, I explore the influence of Medicare coverage decisions on treatments, clinical standards, and ethical necessity. Reflexive longevity-a relentless future-thinking about life itself-is one feature of this ethicality.

Perioperative mortality after non-hepatic general surgery in patients with liver cirrhosis: an analysis of 138 operations in the 2000s using Child and MELD scores

INTRODUCTION

Despite of advances in modern surgical and intensive care treatment, perioperative mortality remains high in patients with liver cirrhosis undergoing nonhepatic general surgery. In the few existing articles, mortality was reported to be as high as 70% in patients with poor liver function (high Child or model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score). Since data are limited, we analyzed our recent experience with cirrhotic patients undergoing emergent or elective nonhepatic general surgery at a German university hospital.

METHODS

Since 2000, 138 nonhepatic general surgical procedures (99 intra-abdominal, 39 abdominal wall) were performed in patients with liver cirrhosis. Liver cirrhosis was preoperatively classified according to the Child (41 Child A, 59 B, 38 C) and the MELD score (MELD median 13). Sixty-eight (49%) of the patients underwent emergent operations. Most abdominal wall operations were for hernias. Intra-abdominal operations consisted of GI tract procedures (n=53), cholecystectomies (n=15), and various others (n=31). Perioperative data were gained by retrospective analysis.

RESULTS

Overall perioperative mortality in all 138 cases was 28% (9% in elective surgery, 47% in emergent surgery; p<0.001). Perioperative mortality was higher after intra-abdominal than after abdominal wall operations (35% vs. 8%; p=0.001) or in patients requiring transfusions (43% vs. 5% without transfusions; p<0.001). Perioperative mortality increased with the Child score (10% Child A, 17% Child B, 63% Child C; p<0.01) and the MELD score (9% MELD <10, 19% MELD 10–15, 54% MELD >15; p<0.001). Univariately, further factors like American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score and various preoperative laboratory values were also associated with perioperative mortality. By multivariate analysis of all 138 operations, the Child and ASA classifications, intraoperative transfusions, and a preoperative sodium <130 mmol/l, but not the MELD score, were independent prognostic factors. Analysis of elective operations revealed only a preoperatively increased creatinine as risk factor for perioperative mortality. In emergent operations again, Child class, blood transfusions, and low sodium level, but not the MELD score, predicted postoperative mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate that perioperative mortality remains high in patients with liver cirrhosisundergoing general surgery, especially in emergent situations. Patients with poor liver function and/or need for blood transfusions even had a very high mortality. In our experience, the Child score (together with other variables) independently correlates with perioperative mortality in emergent operations whereas the MELD score was inferior in predicting the outcome.

Six score systems to evaluate candidates with advanced cirrhosis for orthotopic liver transplant: Which is the winner?

Many prognostic systems have been devised to predict the outcome of liver transplantation (LT) candidates. Today, the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) is widely used for organ allocation, but it has shown some limitations. The aim of this study was to investigate the performance of MELD compared to 5 different score models. We evaluated the prognostic ability of MELD, modified Child-Turcotte-Pugh, MELD-sodium, United Kingdom MELD, updated MELD, and integrated MELD in 487 candidates with cirrhosis for LT at the Bologna Transplant Centre, Bologna, Italy, between 2003 and 2008. Calibration analysis by Hosmer-Lemeshow test, calibration curves, and concordance c-statistics (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) were calculated at 3, 6, and 12 months. Actual cumulative survival curves, taking into account the event of interest in the presence of competing risk, were obtained using the best cutoffs identified by AUC. For each score, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test revealed a good calibration. Integrated MELD showed calibration curves closer to the line of perfect predicting ability, followed by MELD-sodium at 3 months and modified Child-Turcotte-Pugh at 6 months. MELD-sodium AUCs at 3 and 6 months (0.798 and 0.765, respectively) and integrated MELD AUC at 6 months (0.792) were better than standard MELD (P < 0.05). Actual survival curves showed that these 2 scores were able to identify the patients with the highest drop-out risk. In conclusion, MELD-sodium and integrated MELD were the best prognostic models to predict drop-out rates among patients awaiting LT.

Organ allocation for chronic liver disease: model for end-stage liver disease and beyond

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Implementation of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score has led to a reduction in waiting list registration and waitlist mortality. Prognostic models have been proposed to either refine or improve the current MELD-based liver allocation.

RECENT FINDINGS

The model for end-stage liver disease - sodium (MELDNa) incorporates serum sodium and has been shown to improve the predictive accuracy of the MELD score. However, laboratory variation and manipulation of serum sodium is a concern. Organ allocation in the United Kingdom is now based on a model that includes serum sodium. An updated MELD score is associated with a lower relative weight for serum creatinine coefficient and a higher relative weight for bilirubin coefficient, although the contribution of reweighting coefficients as compared with addition of variables is unclear. The D-MELD, the arithmetic product of donor age and preoperative MELD, proposes donor-recipient matching; however, inappropriate transplantation of high-risk donors is a concern. Finally, the net benefit model ranks patients according to the net survival benefit that they would derive from the transplant. However, complex statistical models are required and unmeasured characteristics may unduly affect the model.

SUMMARY

Despite their limitations, efforts to improve the current MELD-based organ allocation are encouraging.

Lixivaptan: a novel vasopressin receptor antagonist

Arginine vasopressin, also known as antidiuretic hormone, is a neuropeptide that functions in the maintenance of body water homeostasis. Inappropriate secretion of vasopressin has been implicated in the pathophysiology of multiple diseases, including polycystic kidney disease, syndrome of inappropriate antidiuretic hormone (SIADH) secretion, and the hyponatremia commonly associated with cirrhosis and congestive heart failure. Vasopressin receptor antagonists are novel agents that block the physiologic actions of vasopressin. Lixivaptan is a vasopressin receptor antagonist with high V2 receptor affinity and is now undergoing Phase III clinical trials. Studies so far have demonstrated that lixivaptan is efficacious in the correction of hyponatremia in SIADH, heart failure and liver cirrhosis with ascites, and few adverse effects have been noted. Thus, lixivaptan remains a promising therapeutic modality for the treatment of multiple diseases and prevention of the associated morbidity and mortality associated with hyponatremia.

Cardiac and systemic haemodynamic complications of liver cirrhosis

Cardiovascular complications of liver cirrhosis include cardiac dysfunction and abnormalities in the central-, splanchnic,- and peripheral circulation. Vasodilatation prevails, but vascular beds with various degrees of reduced and increased haemodynamic resistance are the results of massive activation of powerful homeostatic, regulatory systems. Cirrhotic cardiomyopathy implies systolic and diastolic dysfunction and electrophysiological abnormalities, an entity that is different from alcoholic heart muscle disease. Being often clinical latent, cirrhotic cardiomyopathy can be unmasked by physical and pharmacological strain. Cardiac failure is an important cause of mortality after liver transplantation and stressful procedures as insertions of transjugular intrahepatic portal systemic shunt (TIPS), peritoneal venous shunting, and other types of surgery. Improvement of liver function has been shown to reverse the cardiovascular complications. The clinical significance is an important topic for future research. At present, no specific treatment can be recommended, and the cardiac failure in cirrhosis should be treated as in non-cirrhotic patients with sodium restriction, diuretics, and beta-adrenergic blocking agents. Special care should be taken with the use of ACE-inhibitors and angiotensin antagonist in these patients.

[Investigation of renal function in liver transplant patients: MDRD or Cockroft-Gault?]

Both acute and chronic liver disease have an effect on renal function. After liver transplantation we have to pay attention to the further loss of function because of applied calcineurin inhibitor treatment. It has nephrotoxic side-effect, so the investigation of renal function is converted into an important mission in liver transplant patients. In our study we compared the results between formulas which use serum creatinine: MDRD, which use albumin, too, has effectively other values than the Cockroft-Gault. We compared the two formulas in a retrospective analysis, in 187 patients at a stated time (before operation, after operation, within 1 week, 1 month). We got higher GFR at each date with Cockroft-Gault; mean differences: 19.56%, 17.33%, 37.18% and 28.8%. In the range of 15-60 ml/min GFR, we found nearly twice as many patients by use of MDRD than by use of Cockroft-Gault. Median with MDRD: 79 ml/min, 65.1 ml/min, 52 ml/min, 49.5 ml/min; median with Cockroft-Gault: 93.8 ml/min, 78 ml/min, 70.1 ml/min, 69.4 ml/min, all are significant ( p < 0.001). Many previous studies have already compared the two formulas in end stage kidney disease. On the basis of these studies, MDRD is suitable also under 30 ml/min GFR, but Cockroft-Gault formula approached real GFR measured with isotope methods only above this value. We got the similar conclusion in the examined patient group. It can be stated that MDRD is more suitable to determine renal function in liver transplant patients.