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Wang RN, Zhang YC, Yu BT, He YT, Li B, Zhang YL. Spatio-temporal evolution and trend prediction of the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases in China: a sample of statistical data from 2007 to 2020. BMC Public Health 2022; 22:1208. [PMID: 35715790 PMCID: PMC9204078 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-13566-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2022] [Accepted: 05/23/2022] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND With the accelerated global integration and the impact of climatic, ecological and social environmental changes, China will continue to face the challenge of the outbreak and spread of emerging infectious diseases and traditional ones. This study aims to explore the spatial and temporal evolutionary characteristics of the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases in China from 2007 to 2020, and to forecast the trend of it as well. Hopefully, it will provide a reference for the formulation of infectious disease prevention and control strategies. METHODS Data on the incidence rates of Class B notifiable infectious diseases in 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of China from 2007 to 2020 were collected for the prediction of the spatio-temporal evolution and spatial correlation as well as the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases in China based on global spatial autocorrelation and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). RESULTS From 2007 to 2020, the national incidence rate of Class B notifiable infectious diseases (from 272.37 per 100,000 in 2007 to 190.35 per 100,000 in 2020) decreases year by year, and the spatial distribution shows an "east-central-west" stepwise increase. From 2007 to 2020, the spatial clustering of the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases is significant and increasing year by year (Moran's I index values range from 0.189 to 0.332, p < 0.05). The forecasted incidence rates of Class B notifiable infectious diseases nationwide from 2021 to 2024 (205.26/100,000, 199.95/100,000, 194.74/100,000 and 189.62/100,000) as well as the forecasted values for most regions show a downward trend, with only some regions (Guangdong, Hunan, Hainan, Tibet, Guangxi and Guizhou) showing an increasing trend year by year. CONCLUSIONS The current study found that since there were significant regional disparities in the prevention and control of infectious diseases in China between 2007 and 2020, the reduction of the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases requires the joint efforts of the surrounding provinces. Besides, special attention should be paid to provinces with an increasing trend in the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases to prevent the re-emergence of certain traditional infectious diseases in a particular province or even the whole country, as well as the outbreak and spread of emerging infectious diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ruo-Nan Wang
- School of Health Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510515, China
| | - Yue-Chi Zhang
- Bussiness School, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Bo-Tao Yu
- School of Health Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510515, China
| | - Yan-Ting He
- School of Health Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510515, China
| | - Bei Li
- School of Health Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510515, China.
| | - Yi-Li Zhang
- School of Health Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510515, China.
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2
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Abstract
Politics, rather than disease characteristics, complicated the United States response to Ebola virus disease and Zika virus. We analyze how media and political elites shaped public opinion of the two outbreaks. We conducted a retrospective analysis of media coverage, Congressional floor speech, and public opinion polls to explain elite cueing and public perceptions of Ebola and Zika. We find evidence of elite cueing by Congress and the media on public opinion. Public opinion of both disease outbreaks initially followed partisan patterns. However, while Ebola public opinion remained partisan, ultimately, opinion emerged of a bipartisan nature for Zika, mirroring elite framing. Public health officials should be aware of how elite cueing shapes policy and prioritizes partisan strategies. Politics and public opinion can focus attention on or away from infectious disease; it can also undermine public health responses by biasing the public's view of a diseases' relative risk.
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3
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Desai AN, Kraemer MUG, Bhatia S, Cori A, Nouvellet P, Herringer M, Cohn EL, Carrion M, Brownstein JS, Madoff LC, Lassmann B. Real-time Epidemic Forecasting: Challenges and Opportunities. Health Secur 2020; 17:268-275. [PMID: 31433279 PMCID: PMC6708259 DOI: 10.1089/hs.2019.0022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2019] [Revised: 04/18/2019] [Accepted: 04/23/2019] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Infectious disease outbreaks play an important role in global morbidity and mortality. Real-time epidemic forecasting provides an opportunity to predict geographic disease spread as well as case counts to better inform public health interventions when outbreaks occur. Challenges and recent advances in predictive modeling are discussed here. We identified data needs in the areas of epidemic surveillance, mobility, host and environmental susceptibility, pathogen transmissibility, population density, and healthcare capacity. Constraints in standardized case definitions and timely data sharing can limit the precision of predictive models. Resource-limited settings present particular challenges for accurate epidemic forecasting due to the lack of granular data available. Incorporating novel data streams into modeling efforts is an important consideration for the future as technology penetration continues to improve on a global level. Recent advances in machine-learning, increased collaboration between modelers, the use of stochastic semi-mechanistic models, real-time digital disease surveillance data, and open data sharing provide opportunities for refining forecasts for future epidemics. Epidemic forecasting using predictive modeling is an important tool for outbreak preparedness and response efforts. Despite the presence of some data gaps at present, opportunities and advancements in innovative data streams provide additional support for modeling future epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Angel N. Desai
- Angel N. Desai, MD, is a Clinical Infectious Disease Research Fellow, Division of Infectious Diseases, Brigham & Women's Hospital, Boston, MA
| | - Moritz U. G. Kraemer
- Moritz U. G. Kraemer, DPhil, is in the Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, UK; Computational Epidemiology group, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA; and Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA
| | - Sangeeta Bhatia
- Sangeeta Bhatia, PhD, is a Research Associate, and Anne Cori, PhD, is a Lecturer; both in the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London
| | - Anne Cori
- Sangeeta Bhatia, PhD, is a Research Associate, and Anne Cori, PhD, is a Lecturer; both in the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London
| | - Pierre Nouvellet
- Pierre Nouvellet, PhD, is a Reader, School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK
| | - Mark Herringer
- Mark Herringer, Business Analyst, is the Founder of the Global Healthsites Mapping Project, London
| | - Emily L. Cohn
- Emily L. Cohn, MPH, is Program Manager, Computational Epidemiology Lab, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA
| | - Malwina Carrion
- Malwina Carrion, MPH, is a Lecturer, Department of Health Science, Sargent College, Boston University, Boston, MA
| | - John S. Brownstein
- John S. Brownstein, PhD, is Chief Innovation Officer, Innovation and Digital Health Accelerator, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, and Professor, Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA
| | - Lawrence C. Madoff
- Lawrence C. Madoff, MD, is Professor of Medicine, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, MA, and Editor, ProMED, International Society for Infectious Diseases, Brookline, MA
| | - Britta Lassmann
- Britta Lassmann, MD, is Program Director, International Society for Infectious Diseases, Boston, MA
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Kraemer MUG, Pigott DM, Hill SC, Vanderslott S, Reiner RC, Stasse S, Brownstein JS, Gutierrez B, Dennig F, Hay SI, Wint GRW, Pybus OG, Castro MC, Vinck P, Pham PN, Nilles EJ, Cauchemez S. Dynamics of conflict during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2018-2019. BMC Med 2020; 18:113. [PMID: 32336281 PMCID: PMC7184697 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01574-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/02/2020] [Accepted: 03/24/2020] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The 2018-2019 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri provinces in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is the largest ever recorded in the DRC. It has been declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. The outbreak emerged in a region of chronic conflict and insecurity, and directed attacks against health care workers may have interfered with disease response activities. Our study characterizes and quantifies the broader conflict dynamics over the course of the outbreak by pairing epidemiological and all available spatial conflict data. METHODS We build a set of conflict variables by mapping the spatial locations of all conflict events and their associated deaths in each of the affected health zones in North Kivu and Ituri, eastern DRC, before and during the outbreak. Using these data, we compare patterns of conflict before and during the outbreak in affected health zones and those not affected. We then test whether conflict is correlated with increased EVD transmission at the health zone level. FINDINGS The incidence of conflict events per capita is ~ 600 times more likely in Ituri and North Kivu than for the rest of the DRC. We identified 15 time periods of substantial uninterrupted transmission across 11 health zones and a total of 120 bi-weeks. We do not find significant short-term associations between the bi-week reproduction numbers and the number of conflicts. However, we do find that the incidence of conflict per capita was correlated with the incidence of EVD per capita at the health zone level for the entire outbreak (Pearson's r = 0.33, 95% CI 0.05-0.57). In the two provinces, the monthly number of conflict events also increased by a factor of 2.7 in Ebola-affected health zones (p value < 0.05) compared to 2.0 where no transmission was reported and 1.3 in the rest of the DRC, in the period between February 2019 and July 2019. CONCLUSION We characterized the association between variables documenting broad conflict levels and EVD transmission. Such assessment is important to understand if and how such conflict variables could be used to inform the outbreak response. We found that while these variables can help characterize long-term challenges and susceptibilities of the different regions they provide little insight on the short-term dynamics of EVD transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Moritz U G Kraemer
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. .,Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, USA. .,Computational Epidemiology Group, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, USA.
| | - David M Pigott
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, USA.,Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Sarah C Hill
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Robert C Reiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, USA.,Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Stephanie Stasse
- European Union Delegation to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | - John S Brownstein
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, USA.,Computational Epidemiology Group, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, USA
| | - Bernardo Gutierrez
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.,School of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Universidad San Francisco de Quito USFQ, Quito, Ecuador
| | | | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, USA.,Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - G R William Wint
- Environmental Research Group Oxford, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Marcia C Castro
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, USA
| | - Patrick Vinck
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, USA.,Program on Infectious Diseases and Emergencies, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA.,Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, USA
| | - Phuong N Pham
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, USA.,Program on Infectious Diseases and Emergencies, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA.,Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, USA
| | - Eric J Nilles
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, USA.,Program on Infectious Diseases and Emergencies, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA.,Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, USA
| | - Simon Cauchemez
- Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, CNRS, UMR2000, Paris, France.
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Saving Lives Now From Ebola in Africa. Disaster Med Public Health Prep 2020; 15:5-6. [PMID: 32157981 DOI: 10.1017/dmp.2019.135] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
In his letter, Peace is a better focus than Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), David M. Brett-Major provides a vital reminder of the tragic undercurrent of violence and political instability dominating African regions currently impacted by the second worst Ebola outbreak in modern history. He characterizes health-centric activities as a "common mistake" to remedy the "vicious cycle" of endemic violence and disease outbreaks in DRC and surrounding areas. What is truly needed is a "concerted peace and development process, with health as a voice in a chorus - not alone."
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Affiliation(s)
- David M. Brett-Major
- David M. Brett-Major, MD, MPH, is the Sanford Chair in Tropical Medicine, Division of Tropical Public Health, Department of Preventive Medicine and Biostatistics, F. Edward Hébert School of Medicine, Uniformed Services University, Bethesda, MD. The opinions expressed here are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views, assertions, opinions, or policies of the Uniformed Services University or the Department of Defense
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7
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Cénat JM, Balayulu-Makila O, Derivois D, Felix N, Mukunzi JN, Bukaka J, Birangui JP, Rousseau C. The mental health professional at the feet of the Ebola virus: individual treatment and global mental challenges. Br J Psychiatry 2019; 215:1-2. [PMID: 31142389 DOI: 10.1192/bjp.2019.122] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
SummaryMental health professionals form an important component of the response teams currently working in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to treat what is historically the second-largest Ebola outbreak. They provide psychological treatment to patients under extraordinary conditions, helping them cope with anxiety and the daily death of other patients.Declaration of interestNone.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jude Mary Cénat
- Professor,School of Psychology, University of Ottawa;and Director,Vulnerability, Trauma, Resilience and Culture Research Laboratory,University of Ottawa,Canada
| | - Oléa Balayulu-Makila
- PhD Student,Laboratory of Psychology Psy-DREPI,University of Bourgogne Franche-Comté,France;and Lecturer,Department of Psychology,University of Kinshasa,Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | - Daniel Derivois
- Professor,Department of Psychology,University of Bourgogne Franche-Comté;and Assistant Director,Laboratory of Psychology Psy-DREPI (EA458),France
| | - Nereah Felix
- MA Student,Department of Education,University of Ottawa,Canada
| | - Joana N Mukunzi
- Research Assistant,School of Psychology, University of Ottawa,Canada
| | - Jacqueline Bukaka
- Professor,Department of Psychology,University of Kinshasa,Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | - Jean-Pierre Birangui
- Professor,Department of Psychology,University of Lubumbashi,Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | - Cécile Rousseau
- Professor,Division of Social and Cultural Psychiatry,McGill University,Canada
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8
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Gostin L, Phelan A, Coutinho AG, Eccleston-Turner M, Erondu N, Filani O, Inglesby T, Katz R, Maleche A, Nuzzo JB, Tomori O, Kavanagh M. Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: time to sound a global alert? Lancet 2019; 393:617-620. [PMID: 30732850 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(19)30243-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/21/2019] [Accepted: 01/29/2019] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Lawrence Gostin
- O'Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law, Georgetown University Law Center, Washington, DC 20001, USA.
| | - Alexandra Phelan
- Center for Global Health Science and Security & Law Center, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Tom Inglesby
- Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Rebecca Katz
- Georgetown Center for Global Health Science and Security, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Allan Maleche
- Kenya Legal and Ethical Issues Network on HIV & AIDS, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Jennifer B Nuzzo
- Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | | | - Matthew Kavanagh
- O'Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law, Georgetown University Law Center, Washington, DC 20001, USA
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