Stress, domination and basic income: considering a citizens’ entitlement response to a public health crisis

The basic income for care leavers in Wales pilot evaluation: Protocol of a quasi-experimental evaluation

BACKGROUND

This study will evaluate the Basic Income for Care Leavers in Wales pilot (BIP), which is the most generous basic income scheme in the world. A cohort of care-experienced young people who become aged 18 during a 12-month enrolment period (July 2022-June 2023) are receiving £1,600 (before tax) per month for two years, and the Welsh Government intends this to have a range of benefits. This evaluation will examine the impact of BIP, the implementation of the pilot and how it is experienced, and its value for money.

METHODS

The study is a theory-based quasi-experimental evaluation, and the design and methods are informed by ongoing co-production with care-experienced young people. We will estimate the impact of BIP on participants using self-reported survey data and routinely collected administrative data. This will include outcomes across a range of domains, including psychological wellbeing, physical and mental health, financial impact, education, training and volunteering. Comparisons between temporal (Welsh) and geographical (English, using administrative data) controls will be done using coarsened exact matching and difference in differences analysis. The process evaluation will examine how BIP is implemented and experienced, primarily through monitoring data (quantitative) and interview, observational, and focus group data (qualitative). The economic evaluation will take a public sector and a societal perspective to identify, measure and value the costs and outcomes of BIP, and to synthesise the evidence to inform a social cost-benefit analysis at 24 months post-intervention.

DISCUSSION

BIP is unusual in that it targets a wide range of outcomes and is available to an entire national cohort of participants. The evaluation also has several practical constraints. Therefore, the study will use a range of methods and triangulate between different analyses to assess how successful it is. Findings will inform policy in relation to care leavers, social security and basic income studies worldwide.

Exogenous Increases in Basic Income Provisions Increase Preventive Health-Seeking Behavior: A Quasi-Experimental Study

INTRODUCTION

Universal Basic Income (UBI) policies have the potential to promote a wide range of public health objectives by providing those who qualify with direct cash payments. One overlooked mechanism of particular importance to health researchers is the possibility that guaranteed income might increase consultation of primary and preventive care (e.g., annual doctors' visits; regular vaccination against infectious disease) by providing people with both the time and monetary resources to do so, thereby improving general health.

METHODS

This study assesses the effects of an exogenous shock to Alaska's UBI payments to all state residents: a 2022 decision to reclassify dividend "energy relief" provisions as nontaxable (thereby increasing payments by approximately $2,000 inflation-adjusted dollars). It estimates quasi-experimental treatment effects (in 2022 vs. 2021) via mixed linear probability models that compare pre/post policy change in primary care seeking behavior in Alaska vs. the US adult population; controlling for respondent-level fixed effects and state-level random effects. Data were collected in 2021-2022, and analyzed in 2024.

RESULTS

The likelihood that Alaskans sought primary care postreform (relative to beforehand) increased by 6pp, which was significantly greater than the same difference (2pp) observed across all other (non-UBI) US States (∆=4pp, p<0.01). The study provides suggestive evidence that comparatively fewer Alaskans had difficulty affording primary care during this period, with less-consistent evidence of increased flu vaccine uptake.

CONCLUSIONS

Enhanced UBI payments ought to be thought about as a form of health policy, as they have the potential to advance a wide range of health objectives related to preventive care.

Can Universal Basic Income work for disabled people? An examination of existing UK organisational and academic positions

Universal Basic Income (UBI) has been proposed as a means of addressing a range of issues relating to welfare systems, including by removing disincentives to economic, social and physical activity. However, UK disability organisations and figures have expressed concerns about whether UBI could lead to unintended consequences for people who currently receive support conditional on needs, means and/or behaviour. In this article, we outline prominent positions regarding disabled people in the literature on UBI and welfare reforms. We find that while there are reservations about the intentions and designs of UBI, there are means of securing positive outcomes and collaboration between its supporters and disability organisations. We also attempted a consultation but were unable to obtain a significant response. This was sometimes due to an expressed inability to respond meaningfully. This serves as a call for organisations to engage with UBI as a key issue of interest to disabled people.

Designing a generic, adaptive protocol resource for the measurement of health impact in cash transfer pilot and feasibility studies and trials in high-income countries

INTRODUCTION

In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, upstream interventions that tackle social determinants of health inequalities have never been more important. Evaluations of upstream cash transfer trials have failed to capture comprehensively the impacts that such systems might have on population health through inadequate design of the interventions themselves and failure to implement consistent, thorough research measures that can be used in microsimulations to model long-term impact. In this article, we describe the process of developing a generic, adaptive protocol resource to address this issue and the challenges involved in that process. The resource is designed for use in high-income countries (HIC) but draws on examples from a UK context to illustrate means of development and deployment. The resource is capable of further adaptation for use in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). It has particular application for trials of Universal Basic Income but can be adapted to those covering other kinds of cash transfer and welfare system changes.

METHODS

We outline two types of prospective intervention based on pilots and trials currently under discussion. In developing the remainder of the resource, we establish six key principles, implement a modular approach based on types of measure and their prospective resource intensity, and source (validated where possible) measures and baseline data primarily from routine collection and large, longitudinal cohort studies. Through these measures, we seek to cover all areas of health impact identified in our theoretical model for use in pilot and feasibility studies.

RESULTS

We find that, in general, self-reported measures alongside routinely collected linked respondent data may provide a feasible means of producing data capable of demonstrating comprehensive health impact. However, we also suggest that, where possible, physiological measures should be included to elucidate underlying biological effects that may not be accurately captured through self-reporting alone and can enable modelling of long-term health outcomes. In addition, accurate self-reported objective income data remains a challenge and requires further development and testing. A process of development and implementation of the resource in pilot and feasibility studies will support assessment of whether or not our proposed health outcome measures are acceptable, feasible and can be used with validity and reliability in the target population.

DISCUSSION

We suggest that while Open Access evaluation instruments are available and usable to measure most constructs of interest, there remain some areas for which further development is necessary. This includes self-reported wellbeing measures that require paid licences but are used in a range of nationally important longitudinal studies instead of Open Access alternatives.

Understanding the relationship between income and mental health among 16- to 24-year-olds: Analysis of 10 waves (2009-2020) of Understanding Society to enable modelling of income interventions

A substantial body of evidence suggests that young people, including those at the crucial transition points between 16 and 24, now face severe mental health challenges. In this article, we analyse data from 10 waves of a major UK longitudinal household cohort study, Understanding Society, to examine the relationship between income and anxiety and depression among 16- to 24-year-olds. Using random effects logistic regression (Model 1) allowing for whether the individual was depressed in the previous period as well as sex, age, ethnicity, whether the individual was born in the UK, region, rurality, highest qualification, marital status, employment status and attrition, we find a significant and inversely monotonic adjusted association between average net equivalised household income quintiles and clinical threshold levels of depressive symptoms SF-12 Mental Component Summary (MCS score ≤45.6). This means that being in a higher income group is associated with a reduced likelihood of clinically significant depressive symptoms, allowing for observable confounding variables. Using a 'within-between' model (Model 2), we find that apart from among those with the very highest incomes, increases in average net equivalised household income over the course of childhood and adolescence are significantly associated with reduced symptoms of anxiety and depression as measured by a higher SF-12 MCS score. Compared with previous reviews, the data presented here provides an estimate of the magnitude of effect that helps facilitate microsimulation modelling of impact on anxiety and depression from changes in socioeconomic circumstances. This enables a more detailed and complete understanding of the types of socioeconomic intervention that might begin to address some of the causes of youth mental health problems.

Modelling the size, cost and health impacts of universal basic income: What can be done in advance of a trial?

Opposition to Universal Basic Income (UBI) is encapsulated by Martinelli’s claim that ‘an affordable basic income would be inadequate, and an adequate basic income would be unaffordable’. In this article, we present a model of health impact that transforms that assumption. We argue that UBI can affect higher level social determinants of health down to individual determinants of health and on to improvements in public health that lead to a number of economic returns on investment. Given that no trial has been designed and deployed with that impact in mind, we present a methodological framework for assessing prospective costs and returns on investment through modelling to make the case for that trial. We begin by outlining the pathways to health in our model of change in order to present criteria for establishing the size of transfer capable of promoting health. We then consider approaches to calculating cost in a UK context to estimate budgetary burdens that need to be met by the state. Next, we suggest means of modelling the prospective impact of UBI on health before asserting means of costing that impact, using a microsimulation approach. We then outline a set of fiscal options for funding any shortfall in returns. Finally, we suggest that fiscal strategy can be designed specifically with health impact in mind by modelling the impact of reform on health and feeding that data cyclically back into tax transfer module of the microsimulation.

Study for the Design of a Protocol to Assess the Impact of Stress in the Quality of Life of Workers

(1) Background: Work stress is one of the most relevant issues in public health. It has a significant impact on health, especially the development of mental disorders, causing occupational imbalance. There is a growing interest in the development of tools with a positive effect on workers. To this end, wearable technology is becoming increasingly popular, as it measures biometric variables like heartbeat, activity, and sleep. This information may be used to assess the stress a person is suffering, which could allow the development of stress coping strategies, both at a professional and personal level. (2) Methods: This paper describes an observational, analytical, and longitudinal study which will be set at a research center in A Coruña, Spain. Various scales and questionnaires will be filled in by the participants throughout the study. For the statistical analysis, specific methods will be used to evaluate the association between numerical and categorical variables. (3) Discussion: This study will lay the foundation for a bigger, more complete study to assess occupational stress in different work environments. This will allow us to begin to understand how occupational stress influences daily life activity and occupational balance, which could directly enhance the quality of life of workers if the necessary measures are taken.

Examining the ethical underpinnings of universal basic income as a public health policy: prophylaxis, social engineering and 'good' lives

At a time of COVID-19 pandemic, universal basic income (UBI) has been presented as a potential public health 'upstream intervention'. Research indicates a possible impact on health by reducing poverty, fostering health-promoting behaviour and ameliorating biopsychosocial pathways to health. This novel case for UBI as a public health measure is starting to receive attention from a range of political positions and organisations. However, discussion of the ethical underpinnings of UBI as a public health policy is sparse. This is depriving policymakers of clear perspectives about the reasons for, restrictions to and potential for the policy's design and implementation. In this article, we note prospective pathways to impact on health in order to assess fit with Rawlsian, capabilities and perfectionist approaches to public health policy. We suggest that Raz' pluralist perfectionist approach may fit most comfortably with the prospective pathways to impact, which has implications for allocation of resources.

Designing trials of Universal Basic Income for health impact: identifying interdisciplinary questions to address

BACKGROUND

A large body of evidence indicates the importance of upstream determinants to health. Universal Basic Income (UBI) has been suggested as an upstream intervention capable of promoting health by affecting material, biopsychosocial and behavioural determinants. Calls are emerging across the political spectrum to introduce an emergency UBI to address socioeconomic insecurity. However, although existing studies indicate effects on health through cash transfers, UBI schemes have not previously been designed specifically to promote health.

METHODS

In this article, we scope the existing literature to set out a set of interdisciplinary research challenges to address in designing a trial of the effectiveness of UBI as a population health measure.

RESULTS

We present a theoretical model of impact that identifies three pathways to health impact, before identifying open questions related to regularity, size of payment, needs-based supplements, personality and behaviour, conditionality and duration.

CONCLUSIONS

These results set, for the first time, a set of research activities required in order to maximize health impact in UBI programmes.