Extending molecular dynamics time scales with milestoning: example of complex kinetics in a solvated peptide

Kinetic Network in Milestoning: Clustering, Reduction, and Transition Path Analysis

We present a reduction of the Milestoning (ReM) algorithm to analyze the high-dimensional Milestoning kinetic network. The algorithm reduces the Milestoning network to low dimensions but preserves essential kinetic information, such as local residence time, exit time, and mean first passage time between any two states. This is achieved in three steps. First, nodes (milestones) in the high-dimensional Milestoning network are grouped into clusters based on the metastability identified by an auxiliary continuous-time Markov chain. Our clustering method is applicable not only to time-reversible networks but also to nonreversible networks generated from practical simulations with statistical fluctuations. Second, a reduced network is established via network transformation, containing only the core sets of clusters as nodes. Finally, transition pathways are analyzed in the reduced network based on the transition path theory. The algorithm is illustrated using a toy model and a solvated alanine dipeptide in two and four dihedral angles.

Comparison of Accuracy and Efficiency of Milestoning Variants: Introducing Buffer Milestoning

The Milestoning algorithm is a method for long-time molecular dynamics simulations. It enables the sampling of rare events. The precise calculations of observables depend on accurately determining the first hitting point distribution (FHPD) for each milestone. There is no analytical expression for FHPD, which is estimated numerically. Several variants of Milestoning offer approximations to the FHPD. Here, we examine in detail the FHPD of an exact calculation and Milestoning variants. We also introduce a new version of the Milestoning algorithm, buffer Milestoning, with a comparable cost to conventional Milestoning but higher accuracy. We use the mean first passage time and the free energy to assess the simulation quality, and we compare the accuracy and efficiency of buffer Milestoning to exact calculations, conventional Milestoning, local-passage-time-weighted Milestoning, Markovian Milestoning with Voronoi tessellation, and exact Milestoning. Conventional Milestoning requires milestone decorrelation. If this condition is not satisfied, it is the least accurate approach of all the techniques we examined. We conclude that for a small increase in cost compared to conventional Milestoning, buffer Milestoning provides accurate results for a range of problems, including more correlated milestones and is, therefore, versatile compared to other variants. Local-passage-time-weighted Milestoning provides accuracy similar to that of buffer Milestoning but at an increased simulation cost. Markovian Milestoning with Voronoi tessellation is the most accurate compared with other approximations, but it is less stable for high barriers and more expensive.

Approximating First Hitting Point Distribution in Milestoning for Rare Event Kinetics

Milestoning is an efficient method for rare event kinetics calculation using short trajectory parallelization. Mean first passage time (MFPT) is the key kinetic output of Milestoning, whose accuracy crucially depends on the initial distribution of the short trajectory ensemble. The true initial distribution, i.e., the first hitting point distribution (FHPD), has no analytic expression in the general case. Here, we introduce two algorithms, local passage time weighted Milestoning (LPT-M) and Bayesian inference Milestoning (BI-M), to accurately and efficiently approximate FHPD for systems at equilibrium condition. Starting from sampling the Boltzmann distribution on milestones, we calculate the proper weighting factor for the short trajectory ensemble. The methods are tested on two model examples for illustration purpose. Both methods improve significantly over the widely used classical Milestoning (CM) method in terms of the accuracy of MFPT. In particular, BI-M covers the directional Milestoning method as a special case in deterministic Hamiltonian dynamics. LPT-M is especially advantageous in terms of computational costs and robustness with respect to the increasing number of intermediate milestones. Furthermore, a locally iterative correction algorithm for nonequilibrium stationary FHPD is developed for exact MFPT calculation, which can be combined with LPT-M/BI-M and is much cheaper than the exact Milestoning (ExM) method.

Kinetics from Metadynamics: Principles, Applications, and Outlook

Metadynamics is a popular enhanced sampling algorithm for computing the free energy landscape of rare events by using molecular dynamics simulation. Ten years ago, Tiwary and Parrinello introduced the infrequent metadynamics approach for calculating the kinetics of transitions across free energy barriers. Since then, metadynamics-based methods for obtaining rate constants have attracted significant attention in computational molecular science. Such methods have been applied to study a wide range of problems, including protein-ligand binding, protein folding, conformational transitions, chemical reactions, catalysis, and nucleation. Here, we review the principles of elucidating kinetics from metadynamics-like approaches, subsequent methodological developments in this area, and successful applications on chemical, biological, and material systems. We also highlight the challenges of reconstructing accurate kinetics from enhanced sampling simulations and the scope of future developments.

Analysing ill-conditioned Markov chains

Discrete state Markov chains in discrete or continuous time are widely used to model phenomena in the social, physical and life sciences. In many cases, the model can feature a large state space, with extreme differences between the fastest and slowest transition timescales. Analysis of such ill-conditioned models is often intractable with finite precision linear algebra techniques. In this contribution, we propose a solution to this problem, namely partial graph transformation, to iteratively eliminate and renormalize states, producing a low-rank Markov chain from an ill-conditioned initial model. We show that the error induced by this procedure can be minimized by retaining both the renormalized nodes that represent metastable superbasins, and those through which reactive pathways concentrate, i.e. the dividing surface in the discrete state space. This procedure typically returns a much lower rank model, where trajectories can be efficiently generated with kinetic path sampling. We apply this approach to an ill-conditioned Markov chain for a model multi-community system, measuring the accuracy by direct comparison with trajectories and transition statistics. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Supercomputing simulations of advanced materials'.

15 Years of molecular simulation of drug-binding kinetics

INTRODUCTION

Drug-binding kinetics has been increasingly recognized as an important factor to be considered in drug discovery. Long residence time could prolong the action of some drugs while produce toxicity on others. Early evaluation of the binding kinetics of drug candidates could reduce attrition rate late in the drug discovery process. Computational prediction of drug-binding kinetics is useful as compounds can be evaluated even before they are made. However, simulation of drug-binding kinetics is a challenging problem because of the long-time scale involved. Nevertheless, significant progress has been made.

AREAS COVERED

This review illustrates the rapid evolution of qualitative to quantitative molecular dynamics-based methods that have been developed over the last 15 years.

EXPERT OPINION

The development of new methods based on molecular dynamics simulations now enables computation of absolute association/dissociation rate constants. Cheaper methods capable of identifying candidates with fast or slow binding kinetics, or rank-ordering rate constants are also available. Together, these methods have generated useful insights into the molecular mechanisms of drug-binding kinetics, and the design of drug candidates with therapeutically favorable kinetics. Although predicting absolute rate constants is still expensive and challenging, rapid improvement is expected in the coming years with the continuing refinement of current technologies, development of new methodologies, and the utilization of machine learning.

Atomistic description of the relationship between protein dynamics and catalysis with transition path sampling

Despite initial resistance, it has been increasingly accepted that protein dynamics plays a role in enzymatic catalysis. There have been two lines of research. Some works study slow conformational motions that are not coupled to the reaction coordinate, but guide the system towards catalytically competent conformations. Understanding at the atomistic level how this is accomplished has remained elusive except for a few systems. In this review we focus on fast sub-picosecond motions that are coupled to the reaction coordinate. The use of Transition Path Sampling has allowed us an atomistic description of how these rate-promoting vibrational motions are incorporated in the reaction mechanism. We will also show how we used insights from rate-promoting motions in protein design.

Selectivity and Ranking of Tight-Binding JAK-STAT Inhibitors Using Markovian Milestoning with Voronoi Tessellations

Janus kinases (JAK), a group of proteins in the nonreceptor tyrosine kinase (NRTKs) family, play a crucial role in growth, survival, and angiogenesis. They are activated by cytokines through the Janus kinase-signal transducer and activator of a transcription (JAK-STAT) signaling pathway. JAK-STAT signaling pathways have significant roles in the regulation of cell division, apoptosis, and immunity. Identification of the V617F mutation in the Janus homology 2 (JH2) domain of JAK2 leading to myeloproliferative disorders has stimulated great interest in the drug discovery community to develop JAK2-specific inhibitors. However, such inhibitors should be selective toward JAK2 over other JAKs and display an extended residence time. Recently, novel JAK2/STAT5 axis inhibitors (N-(1H-pyrazol-3-yl)pyrimidin-2-amino derivatives) have displayed extended residence times (hours or longer) on target and adequate selectivity excluding JAK3. To facilitate a deeper understanding of the kinase-inhibitor interactions and advance the development of such inhibitors, we utilize a multiscale Markovian milestoning with Voronoi tessellations (MMVT) approach within the Simulation-Enabled Estimation of Kinetic Rates v.2 (SEEKR2) program to rank order these inhibitors based on their kinetic properties and further explain the selectivity of JAK2 inhibitors over JAK3. Our approach investigates the kinetic and thermodynamic properties of JAK-inhibitor complexes in a user-friendly, fast, efficient, and accurate manner compared to other brute force and hybrid-enhanced sampling approaches.

ScMiles2: A Script to Conduct and Analyze Milestoning Trajectories for Long Time Dynamics

Milestoning is a theory and an algorithm that computes kinetics and thermodynamics at long time scales. It is based on partitioning the (phase) space into cells and running a large number of short trajectories between the boundaries of the cells. The termination points of the trajectories are analyzed with the Milestoning theory to obtain kinetic and thermodynamic information. Managing the tens to hundreds of thousands of Milestoning trajectories is a challenge, which we handle with a python script, ScMiles. Here, we introduce a new version of the python script ScMiles2 to conduct Milestoning simulations. Major enhancements are: (i) post analysis of Milestoning trajectories to obtain the free energy, mean first passage time, the committor function, and exit times; (ii) similar to (i) but the post analysis is for a single long trajectory; (iii) we support the use of the GROMACS software in addition to NAMD; (iv) a restart option; (v) the automated finding, sampling, and launching trajectories from new milestones that are found on the fly; and (vi) support Milestoning calculations with several coarse variables and for complex reaction coordinates. We also evaluate the simulation parameters and suggest new algorithmic features to enhance the rate of convergence of observables. We propose the use of an iteration-averaged kinetic matrix for a rapid approach to asymptotic values. Illustrations are provided for small systems and one large example.

Rare Event Kinetics from Adaptive Bias Enhanced Sampling

We introduce a novel enhanced sampling approach named on-the-fly probability enhanced sampling (OPES) flooding for calculating the kinetics of rare events from atomistic molecular dynamics simulation. This method is derived from the OPES approach [Invernizzi and Parrinello, J. Phys. Chem. Lett. 2020, 11, 7, 2731-2736], which has been recently developed for calculating converged free energy surfaces for complex systems. In this paper, we describe the theoretical details of the OPES flooding technique and demonstrate the application on three systems of increasing complexity: barrier crossing in a two-dimensional double-well potential, conformational transition in the alanine dipeptide in the gas phase, and the folding and unfolding of the chignolin polypeptide in an aqueous environment. From extensive tests, we show that the calculation of accurate kinetics not only requires the transition state to be bias-free, but the amount of bias deposited should also not exceed the effective barrier height measured along the chosen collective variables. In this vein, the possibility of computing rates from biasing suboptimal order parameters has also been explored. Furthermore, we describe the choice of optimum parameter combinations for obtaining accurate results from limited computational effort.

SEEKR2: Versatile Multiscale Milestoning Utilizing the OpenMM Molecular Dynamics Engine

We present SEEKR2 (simulation-enabled estimation of kinetic rates version 2)—the latest iteration in the family of SEEKR programs for using multiscale simulation methods to computationally estimate the kinetics and thermodynamics of molecular processes, in particular, ligand-receptor binding. SEEKR2 generates equivalent, or improved, results compared to the earlier versions of SEEKR but with significant increases in speed and capabilities. SEEKR2 has also been built with greater ease of usability and with extensible features to enable future expansions of the method. Now, in addition to supporting simulations using NAMD, calculations may be run with the fast and extensible OpenMM simulation engine. The Brownian dynamics portion of the calculation has also been upgraded to Browndye 2. Furthermore, this version of SEEKR supports hydrogen mass repartitioning, which significantly reduces computational cost, while showing little, if any, loss of accuracy in the predicted kinetics.

Method for Identifying Common Features in Reactive Trajectories of a Transition Path Sampling Ensemble

Simulation methods like transition path sampling (TPS) generate an abundance of information buried in the collection of reactive trajectories that they generate. However, only limited use has been made of this information, mainly for the identification of the reaction coordinate. The standard TPS tools have been designed for monitoring the progress of the system from reactants to products. However, the reaction coordinate does not contain all the information regarding the mechanism. In our earlier work, we have used TPS on enzymatic systems and have identified important motions in the reactant well that prepares the system for the reaction. Since these events take place in the reactant well, they are beyond the reach of standard TPS postprocessing methods. We present a simple scheme for identifying the common trends in enzymatic trajectories. This scheme was designed for a specific class of enzymatic reactions: it can be used for identifying motions that guide the system to reaction-ready conformations. We have applied it to two enzymatic systems that we have studied in the past, formate dehydrogenase and purine nucleoside phosphorylase, and we were able to identify interactions, far from the transition state, that are important for preparing the system for the reaction but that had been overlooked in earlier work.

WESTPA 2.0: High-Performance Upgrades for Weighted Ensemble Simulations and Analysis of Longer-Timescale Applications

The weighted ensemble (WE) family of methods is one of several statistical mechanics-based path sampling strategies that can provide estimates of key observables (rate constants and pathways) using a fraction of the time required by direct simulation methods such as molecular dynamics or discrete-state stochastic algorithms. WE methods oversee numerous parallel trajectories using intermittent overhead operations at fixed time intervals, enabling facile interoperability with any dynamics engine. Here, we report on the major upgrades to the WESTPA software package, an open-source, high-performance framework that implements both basic and recently developed WE methods. These upgrades offer substantial improvements over traditional WE methods. The key features of the new WESTPA 2.0 software enhance the efficiency and ease of use: an adaptive binning scheme for more efficient surmounting of large free energy barriers, streamlined handling of large simulation data sets, exponentially improved analysis of kinetics, and developer-friendly tools for creating new WE methods, including a Python API and resampler module for implementing both binned and "binless" WE strategies.

Markovian Weighted Ensemble Milestoning (M-WEM): Long-Time Kinetics from Short Trajectories

We introduce a rare-event sampling scheme, named Markovian Weighted Ensemble Milestoning (M-WEM), which inlays a weighted ensemble framework within a Markovian milestoning theory to efficiently calculate thermodynamic and kinetic properties of long-time-scale biomolecular processes from short atomistic molecular dynamics simulations. M-WEM is tested on the Müller-Brown potential model, the conformational switching in alanine dipeptide, and the millisecond time-scale protein-ligand unbinding in a trypsin-benzamidine complex. Not only can M-WEM predict the kinetics of these processes with quantitative accuracy but it also allows for a scheme to reconstruct a multidimensional free-energy landscape along additional degrees of freedom, which are not part of the milestoning progress coordinate. For the ligand-receptor system, the experimental residence time, association and dissociation kinetics, and binding free energy could be reproduced using M-WEM within a simulation time of a few hundreds of nanoseconds, which is a fraction of the computational cost of other currently available methods, and close to 4 orders of magnitude less than the experimental residence time. Due to the high accuracy and low computational cost, the M-WEM approach can find potential applications in kinetics and free-energy-based computational drug design.

Simulation of protein pulling dynamics on second time scale with boxed molecular dynamics

We demonstrate how recently developed Boxed Molecular Dynamics (BXD) and kinetics [D. V. Shalashilin et al., J. Chem. Phys. 137, 165102 (2012)] can provide a kinetic description of protein pulling experiments, allowing for a connection to be made between experiment and the atomistic protein structure. BXD theory applied to atomic force microscopy unfolding is similar in spirit to the kinetic two-state model [A. Noy and R. W. Friddle, Methods 60, 142 (2013)] but with some differences. First, BXD uses a large number of boxes, and therefore, it is not a two-state model. Second, BXD rate coefficients are obtained from atomistic molecular dynamics simulations. BXD can describe the dependence of the pulling force on pulling speed. Similar to Shalashilin et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 137, 165102 (2012)], we show that BXD is able to model the experiment at a very long time scale up to seconds, which is way out of reach for standard molecular dynamics.

Computer Simulations of the Dissociation Mechanism of Gleevec from Abl Kinase with Milestoning

Gleevec (a.k.a., imatinib) is an important anticancer (e.g., chronic myeloid leukemia) chemotherapeutic drug due to its inhibitory interaction with the Abl kinase. Here, we use atomically detailed simulations within the Milestoning framework to study the molecular dissociation mechanism of Gleevec from Abl kinase. We compute the dissociation free energy profile, the mean first passage time for unbinding, and explore the transition state ensemble of conformations. The milestones form a multidimensional network with average connectivity of about 2.93, which is significantly higher than the connectivity for a one-dimensional reaction coordinate. The free energy barrier for Gleevec dissociation is estimated to be ∼10 kcal/mol, and the exit time is ∼55 ms. We examined the transition state conformations using both, the committor and transition function. We show that near the transition state the highly conserved salt bridge K217 and E286 is transiently broken. Together with the calculated free energy profile, these calculations can advance the understanding of the molecular interaction mechanisms between Gleevec and Abl kinase and play a role in future drug design and optimization studies.

Homogeneous nucleation of sheared liquids: advances and insights from simulations and theory

One of the most ubiquitous and technologically important phenomena in nature is the nucleation of homogeneous flowing systems. The microscopic effects of shear on a nucleating system are still imperfectly understood, although in recent years a consistent picture has emerged. The opposing effects of shear can be split into two major contributions for simple atomic and molecular liquids: increase of the energetic cost of nucleation, and enhancement of the kinetics. In this perspective, we describe the latest computational and theoretical techniques which have been developed over the past two decades. We collate and unify the overarching influences of shear, temperature, and supersaturation on the process of homogeneous nucleation. Experimental techniques and capabilities are discussed, against the backdrop of results from simulations and theory. Although we primarily focus on simple systems, we also touch upon the sheared nucleation of more complex systems, including glasses and polymer melts. We speculate on the promising directions and possible advances that could come to fruition in the future.

From adaptive resolution to molecular dynamics of open systems

ABSTRACT

We provide an overview of the Adaptive Resolution Simulation method (AdResS) based on discussing its basic principles and presenting its current numerical and theoretical developments. Examples of applications to systems of interest to soft matter, chemical physics, and condensed matter illustrate the method's advantages and limitations in its practical use and thus settle the challenge for further future numerical and theoretical developments.

Optimal dimensionality reduction of Markov chains using graph transformation

Markov chains can accurately model the state-to-state dynamics of a wide range of complex systems, but the underlying transition matrix is ill-conditioned when the dynamics feature a separation of timescales. Graph transformation (GT) provides a numerically stable method to compute exact mean first passage times (MFPTs) between states, which are the usual dynamical observables in continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs). Here, we generalize the GT algorithm to discrete-time Markov chains (DTMCs), which are commonly estimated from simulation data, for example, in the Markov state model approach. We then consider the dimensionality reduction of CTMCs and DTMCs, which aids model interpretation and facilitates more expensive computations, including sampling of pathways. We perform a detailed numerical analysis of existing methods to compute the optimal reduced CTMC, given a partitioning of the network into metastable communities (macrostates) of nodes (microstates). We show that approaches based on linear algebra encounter numerical problems that arise from the requisite metastability. We propose an alternative approach using GT to compute the matrix of intermicrostate MFPTs in the original Markov chain, from which a matrix of weighted intermacrostate MFPTs can be obtained. We also propose an approximation to the weighted-MFPT matrix in the strongly metastable limit. Inversion of the weighted-MFPT matrix, which is better conditioned than the matrices that must be inverted in alternative dimensionality reduction schemes, then yields the optimal reduced Markov chain. The superior numerical stability of the GT approach therefore enables us to realize optimal Markovian coarse-graining of systems with rare event dynamics.

Kinetic and thermodynamic analysis defines roles for two metal ions in DNA polymerase specificity and catalysis

Magnesium ions play a critical role in catalysis by many enzymes and contribute to the fidelity of DNA polymerases through a two-metal ion mechanism. However, specificity is a kinetic phenomenon and the roles of Mg²⁺ ions in each step in the catalysis have not been resolved. We first examined the roles of Mg²⁺ by kinetic analysis of single nucleotide incorporation catalyzed by HIV reverse transcriptase. We show that Mg.dNTP binding induces an enzyme conformational change at a rate that is independent of free Mg²⁺ concentration. Subsequently, the second Mg²⁺ binds to the closed state of the enzyme-DNA-Mg.dNTP complex (K_d = 3.7 mM) to facilitate catalysis. Weak binding of the catalytic Mg²⁺ contributes to fidelity by sampling the correctly aligned substrate without perturbing the equilibrium for nucleotide binding at physiological Mg²⁺ concentrations. An increase of the Mg²⁺ concentration from 0.25 to 10 mM increases nucleotide specificity (k_cat/K_m) 12-fold largely by increasing the rate of the chemistry relative to the rate of nucleotide release. Mg²⁺ binds very weakly (K_d ≤ 37 mM) to the open state of the enzyme. Analysis of published crystal structures showed that HIV reverse transcriptase binds only two metal ions prior to incorporation of a correct base pair. Molecular dynamics simulations support the two-metal ion mechanism and the kinetic data indicating weak binding of the catalytic Mg²⁺. Molecular dynamics simulations also revealed the importance of the divalent cation cloud surrounding exposed phosphates on the DNA. These results enlighten the roles of the two metal ions in the specificity of DNA polymerases.

Kinetics and free energy of ligand dissociation using weighted ensemble milestoning

We consider the recently developed weighted ensemble milestoning (WEM) scheme [D. Ray and I. Andricioaei, J. Chem. Phys. 152, 234114 (2020)] and test its capability of simulating ligand-receptor dissociation dynamics. We performed WEM simulations on the following host-guest systems: Na⁺/Cl^- ion pair and 4-hydroxy-2-butanone ligand with FK506 binding protein. As a proof of principle, we show that the WEM formalism reproduces the Na⁺/Cl^- ion pair dissociation timescale and the free energy profile obtained from long conventional MD simulation. To increase the accuracy of WEM calculations applied to kinetics and thermodynamics in protein-ligand binding, we introduced a modified WEM scheme called weighted ensemble milestoning with restraint release (WEM-RR), which can increase the number of starting points per milestone without adding additional computational cost. WEM-RR calculations obtained a ligand residence time and binding free energy in agreement with experimental and previous computational results. Moreover, using the milestoning framework, the binding time and rate constants, dissociation constants, and committor probabilities could also be calculated at a low computational cost. We also present an analytical approach for estimating the association rate constant (k_on) when binding is primarily diffusion driven. We show that the WEM method can efficiently calculate multiple experimental observables describing ligand-receptor binding/unbinding and is a promising candidate for computer-aided inhibitor design.

Value of Temporal Information When Analyzing Reaction Coordinates

Reaction coordinates chart pathways from reactants to products of chemical reactions. Determination of reaction coordinates from ensembles of molecular trajectories has thus been the focus of many studies. A widely used and insightful choice of a reaction coordinate is the committor function, defined as the probability that a trajectory will reach the product before the reactant. Here, we consider alternatives to the committor function that add useful mechanistic information, the mean first passage time, and the exit time to the product. We further derive a simple relationship between the functions of the committor, the mean first passage time, and the exit time. We illustrate the diversity of mechanisms predicted by alternative reaction coordinates with several toy problems and with a simple model of protein searching for a specific DNA motif.

Rare events and first passage time statistics from the energy landscape

We analyze the probability distribution of rare first passage times corresponding to transitions between product and reactant states in a kinetic transition network. The mean first passage times and the corresponding rate constants are analyzed in detail for two model landscapes and the double funnel landscape corresponding to an atomic cluster. Evaluation schemes based on eigendecomposition and kinetic path sampling, which both allow access to the first passage time distribution, are benchmarked against mean first passage times calculated using graph transformation. Numerical precision issues severely limit the useful temperature range for eigendecomposition, but kinetic path sampling is capable of extending the first passage time analysis to lower temperatures, where the kinetics of interest constitute rare events. We then investigate the influence of free energy based state regrouping schemes for the underlying network. Alternative formulations of the effective transition rates for a given regrouping are compared in detail to determine their numerical stability and capability to reproduce the true kinetics, including recent coarse-graining approaches that preserve occupancy cross correlation functions. We find that appropriate regrouping of states under the simplest local equilibrium approximation can provide reduced transition networks with useful accuracy at somewhat lower temperatures. Finally, a method is provided to systematically interpolate between the local equilibrium approximation and exact intergroup dynamics. Spectral analysis is applied to each grouping of states, employing a moment-based mode selection criterion to produce a reduced state space, which does not require any spectral gap to exist, but reduces to gap-based coarse graining as a special case. Implementations of the developed methods are freely available online.

Capacities and efficient computation of first-passage probabilities

A reversible diffusion process is initialized at position x_{0} and run until it first hits any of several targets. What is the probability that it terminates at a particular target? We propose a computationally efficient approach for estimating this probability, focused on those situations in which it takes a long time to hit any target. In these cases, direct simulation of the hitting probabilities becomes prohibitively expensive. On the other hand, if the timescales are sufficiently long, then the system will essentially "forget" its initial condition before it encounters a target. In these cases the hitting probabilities can be accurately approximated using only local simulations around each target, obviating the need for direct simulations. In empirical tests, we find that these local estimates can be computed in the same time it would take to compute a single direct simulation, but that they achieve an accuracy that would require thousands of direct simulation runs.

Improving double-ended transition state searches for soft-matter systems

Transitions between different stable configurations of biomolecules are important in understanding disease mechanisms, structure-function relations, and novel molecular-scale engineering. The corresponding pathways can be characterized efficiently using geometry optimization schemes based on double-ended transition state searches. An interpolation is first constructed between the known states and then refined, yielding a band that contains transition state candidates. Here, we analyze an example where various interpolation schemes lead to bands with a single step transition, but the correct pathway actually proceeds via an intervening, low-energy minimum. We compare a number of different interpolation schemes for this problem. We systematically alter the number of discrete images in the interpolations and the spring constants used in the optimization and test two schemes for adjusting the spring constants and image distribution, resulting in a total of 2760 different connection attempts. Our results confirm that optimized bands are not necessarily a good description of the transition pathways in themselves, and further refinement to actually converge transition states and establish their connectivity is required. We see an improvement in the optimized bands if we employ the adjustment of spring constants with doubly-nudged elastic band and a smaller improvement from the image redistribution. The example we consider is representative of numerous cases we have encountered in a wide variety of molecular and condensed matter systems.

Milestoning with wind: Exploring the impact of a biasing potential in exact calculation of kinetics

We consider the algorithm wind-assisted reweighted Milestoning of Grazioli and Andricioaei [J. Chem. Phys 149(8), 084103 (2018)], expand it, and assess its performance. We derive exact expressions for underdamped and overdamped Langevin dynamics and examine its efficiency for a simple model system (Mueller's potential) and for bond breaking in solution. The use of a biasing force (wind) significantly enhances the sampling of otherwise rare trajectories but also introduces an exponential weight to the trajectories that significantly impact the value of the statistics. In our examples, computing averages and standard deviations are not better using wind compared to straightforward Milestoning. However, the biasing force is useful for highly steep energy landscapes. On these landscapes, the probability of sampling straightforward Milestoning trajectories, which overcome the barrier, is low and the biasing force enables the observations of these rare events.

The transition between active and inactive conformations of Abl kinase studied by rock climbing and Milestoning

BACKGROUND

Kinases are a family of enzymes that catalyze the transfer of the ɤ-phosphate group from ATP to a protein's residue. Malfunctioning kinases are involved in many health problems such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and cancer. Kinases transitions between multiple conformations of inactive to active forms attracted considerable interest.

METHOD

A reaction coordinate is computed for the transition between the active to inactive conformation in Abl kinase with a focus on the DFG-in to DFG-out flip. The method of Rock Climbing is used to construct a path locally, which is subsequently optimized using a functional of the entire path. The discrete coordinate sets along the reaction path are used in a Milestoning calculation of the free energy landscape and the rate of the transition.

RESULTS

The estimated transition times are between a few milliseconds and seconds, consistent with simulations of the kinetics and with indirect experimental data. The activation requires the transient dissociation of the salt bridge between Lys271 and Glu286. The salt bridge reforms once the DFG motif is stabilized by a locked conformation of Phe382. About ten residues are identified that contribute significantly to the process and are included as part of the reaction space.

CONCLUSIONS

The transition from DFG-in to DFG-out in Abl kinase was simulated using atomic resolution of a fully solvated protein yielding detailed description of the kinetics and the mechanism of the DFG flip. The results are consistent with other computational methods that simulate the kinetics and with some indirect experimental measurements.

GENERAL SIGNIFICANCE

The activation of kinases includes a conformational transition of the DFG motif that is important for enzyme activity but is not accessible to conventional Molecular Dynamics. We propose a detailed mechanism for the transition, at a timescale longer than conventional MD, using a combination of reaction path and Milestoning algorithms. The mechanism includes local structural adjustments near the binding site as well as collective interactions with more remote residues.

ScMile: A Script to Investigate Kinetics with Short Time Molecular Dynamics Trajectories and the Milestoning Theory

Studies of complex and rare events in condensed phase systems continue to attract considerable attention. Milestoning is a useful theory and algorithm to investigate the long-time dynamics of activated molecular events. It is based on launching a large number of short trajectories and statistical analysis of the outcome. The implementation of the theory in a computer script is described that enables more efficient Milestoning calculation, reducing user time and errors, and automating a significant fraction of the algorithm. The script exploits a molecular dynamics engine, which at present is NAMD, to run the short trajectories. However, since the script is external to the engine, the script can be easily adapted to different molecular dynamics codes. The outcomes of the short trajectories are analyzed to obtain a kinetic and thermodynamic description of the entire process. While many examples of Milestoning were published in the past, we provide two simple examples (a conformational transition of alanine dipeptide in a vacuum and aqueous solution) to illustrate the use of the script.

Timescale prediction of complex multi-barrier pathways using flux sampling molecular dynamics and 1D kinetic integration: Application to cellulose dehydration

Reactive molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, especially those employing acceleration techniques, can provide useful insights on the mechanism underlying the transformation of buried organic matter, yet, so far, it remains extremely difficult to predict the time scales associated with these processes at moderate temperatures (i.e., when such time scales are considerably larger than those accessible to MD). We propose here an accelerated method based on flux sampling and kinetic integration along a 1D order parameter that can considerably extend the accessible time scales. We demonstrate the utility of this technique in an application to the dehydration of crystalline cellulose at temperatures ranging from 1900 K to 1500 K. The full decomposition is obtained at all temperatures apart from T = 1500 K, showing the same distribution of the main volatiles (H₂O, CO, and CO₂) as recently obtained using replica exchange molecular dynamics. The kinetics of the process is well fitted with an Arrhenius law with E_a = 93 kcal/mol and k₀ = 9 × 10¹⁹ s^-1, which are somehow larger than experimental reports. Unexpectedly, the process seems to considerably slow down at lower temperatures, severely departing from the Arrhenius regime, probably because of an inadequate choice of the order parameter. Nevertheless, we show that the proposed method allows considerable time sampling at low temperatures compared to conventional MD.

Taming Rugged Free Energy Landscapes Using an Average Force

The observation of complex structural transitions in biological and abiological molecular objects within time scales amenable to molecular dynamics (MD) simulations is often hampered by significant free energy barriers associated with entangled movements. Importance-sampling algorithms, a powerful class of numerical schemes for the investigation of rare events, have been widely used to extend simulations beyond the time scale common to MD. However, probing processes spanning milliseconds through microsecond molecular simulations still constitutes in practice a daunting challenge because of the difficulty of taming the ruggedness of multidimensional free energy surfaces by means of naive transition coordinates. To address this limitation, in recent years we have elaborated importance-sampling methods relying on an adaptive biasing force (ABF). In this Account, we review recent developments of algorithms aimed at mapping rugged free energy landscapes that correspond to complex processes of physical, chemical, and biological relevance. Through these developments, we have broadened the spectrum of applications of the popular ABF algorithm while improving its computational efficiency, notably for multidimensional free energy calculations. One major algorithmic advance, coined meta-eABF, merges the key features of metadynamics and an extended Lagrangian variant of ABF (eABF) by simultaneously shaving the barriers and flooding the valleys of the free energy landscape, and it possesses a convergence rate up to 5-fold greater than those of other importance-sampling algorithms. Through faster convergence and enhanced ergodic properties, meta-eABF represents a significant step forward in the simulation of millisecond-time-scale events. Here we introduce extensions of the algorithm, notably its well-tempered and replica-exchange variants, which further boost the sampling efficiency while gaining in numerical stability, thus allowing quantum-mechanical/molecular-mechanical free energy calculations to be performed at a lower cost. As a paradigm to bridge microsecond simulations to millisecond events by means of free energy calculations, we have applied the ABF family of algorithms to decompose complex movements in molecular objects of biological and abiological nature. We show here how water lubricates the shuttling of an amide-based rotaxane by altering the mechanism that underlies the concerted translation and isomerization of the macrocycle. Introducing novel collective variables in a computational workflow for the rigorous determination of standard binding free energies, we predict with utmost accuracy the thermodynamics of protein-ligand reversible association. Because of their simplicity, versatility, and robust mathematical foundations, the algorithms of the ABF family represent an appealing option for the theoretical investigation of a broad range of problems relevant to physics, chemistry, and biology.

Steering a solute between coexisting solvation states: Revisiting nonequilibrium work relations and the calculation of free energy differences

By analogy with single-molecule pulling experiments, we present a computational framework to obtain free energy differences between complex solvation states. To illustrate our approach, we focus on the calculation of solvation free energies (SFEs). However, the method can be readily extended to cases involving more complex solutes and solvation conditions as well as to the calculation of binding free energies. The main idea is to drag the solute across the simulation box where atomistic and ideal gas representations of the solvent coexist at constant temperature and chemical potential. At finite pulling speeds, the resulting work allows one to extract SFEs via nonequilibrium relations, whereas at infinitely slow pulling speeds, this process becomes equivalent to the thermodynamic integration method. Results for small molecules well agree with literature data and pave the way to systematic studies of arbitrarily large and complex molecules.

All-Atom Simulations Reveal How Single-Point Mutations Promote Serpin Misfolding

Protein misfolding is implicated in many diseases, including serpinopathies. For the canonical inhibitory serpin α₁-antitrypsin, mutations can result in protein deficiencies leading to lung disease, and misfolded mutants can accumulate in hepatocytes, leading to liver disease. Using all-atom simulations based on the recently developed bias functional algorithm, we elucidate how wild-type α₁-antitrypsin folds and how the disease-associated S (Glu264Val) and Z (Glu342Lys) mutations lead to misfolding. The deleterious Z mutation disrupts folding at an early stage, whereas the relatively benign S mutant shows late-stage minor misfolding. A number of suppressor mutations ameliorate the effects of the Z mutation, and simulations on these mutants help to elucidate the relative roles of steric clashes and electrostatic interactions in Z misfolding. These results demonstrate a striking correlation between atomistic events and disease severity and shine light on the mechanisms driving chains away from their correct folding routes.

On approximating a weak Markovian process as Markovian: Are we justified when discarding longtime correlations

The effect for removing weak longtime correlation is studied using a model system that contains a driven atom at liquid density under strong thermal fluctuations. The force that drives the tagged particle is about 1% of the average random force experienced by the particle. The tagged particle is allowed to assume a range of masses from 1/8 to 80 times that of a surrounding particle to study the effects of inertia. The driving force is indefinitely correlated but much weaker than "random" fluctuations from the environment. From this study, it is shown that the environmental influence is not fully random leading to the force autocorrelation function being a poor metric for detecting the correlated driving force. Although the velocity autocorrelation function shows stronger correlation for systems with higher inertia, the velocity autocorrelation function decays to a very small value of 2.5×10^-3 even for the most massive driven particle. For systems with small inertia, our study reveals that discarding longtime correlation has negligible influence on the first passage time (FPT) estimate, whereas for particles with large inertia, the deviation can indeed be appreciable. It is interesting that the Markov State Model (MSM) still produces reasonable estimates on the FPT even when a very short lag time that clearly violates the Markovianity assumption is used. This is likely a result of favorable error cancellations when the MSM transition probability matrices were constructed using trajectories that are much longer than the lag time.

Quantitative Ranking of Ligand Binding Kinetics with a Multiscale Milestoning Simulation Approach

Efficient prediction and ranking of small molecule binders by their kinetic ( kon and koff) and thermodynamic ( Δ G) properties can be a valuable metric for drug lead optimization, as these quantities are often indicators of in vivo efficacy. We have previously described a hybrid molecular dynamics, Brownian dynamics, and milestoning model, Simulation Enabled Estimation of Kinetic Rates (SEEKR), that can predict kon's, koff's, and Δ G's. Here we demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach for ranking a series of seven small molecule compounds for the model system, β-cyclodextrin, based on predicted kon's and koff's. We compare our results using SEEKR to experimentally determined rates as well as rates calculated using long time scale molecular dynamics simulations and show that SEEKR can effectively rank the compounds by koff and Δ G with reduced computational cost. We also provide a discussion of convergence properties and sensitivities of calculations with SEEKR to establish "best practices" for its future use.

Advances in milestoning. II. Calculating time-correlation functions from milestoning using stochastic path integrals

In the milestoning framework, and more generally in related transition interface sampling schemes, one significantly enhances the calculation of relaxation rates for complex equilibrium kinetics from molecular dynamics simulations between the milestones or interfaces. The goal of the present paper is to advance milestoning applications into the realm of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics, in particular, to calculate entire time correlation functions. In order to accomplish this, we introduce a novel methodology for obtaining the flux through a given milestone configuration as a function of both time and initial configuration and build upon it with a novel formalism describing autocorrelation for Langevin motion in a discrete configuration space. The method is then applied to three different test systems: a harmonic oscillator, which we solve analytically, a two-well potential, which is solved numerically, and an atomistic molecular dynamics simulation of alanine dipeptide.

A new paradigm for atomically detailed simulations of kinetics in biophysical systems

The kinetics of biochemical and biophysical events determined the course of life processes and attracted considerable interest and research. For example, modeling of biological networks and cellular responses relies on the availability of information on rate coefficients. Atomically detailed simulations hold the promise of supplementing experimental data to obtain a more complete kinetic picture. However, simulations at biological time scales are challenging. Typical computer resources are insufficient to provide the ensemble of trajectories at the correct length that is required for straightforward calculations of time scales. In the last years, new technologies emerged that make atomically detailed simulations of rate coefficients possible. Instead of computing complete trajectories from reactants to products, these approaches launch a large number of short trajectories at different positions. Since the trajectories are short, they are computed trivially in parallel on modern computer architecture. The starting and termination positions of the short trajectories are chosen, following statistical mechanics theory, to enhance efficiency. These trajectories are analyzed. The analysis produces accurate estimates of time scales as long as hours. The theory of Milestoning that exploits the use of short trajectories is discussed, and several applications are described.

A minimization principle for transition paths of maximum flux for collective variables

Considered is the construction of transition paths of conformational changes for proteins and other macromolecules, using methods that do not require the generation of dynamics trajectories. Special attention is given to the use of a reduced set of collective variables for describing such paths. A favored way to define transition paths is to seek channels through the transition state having cross sections with a high reactive flux (density of last hitting points of reactive trajectories). Given here is a formula for reactive flux that is independent of the parameterization of "collective variable space." This formula is needed for the principal curve of the reactive flux (as in the revised finite temperature string method) and for the maximum flux transition (MaxFlux) path. Additionally, a resistance functional is derived for narrow tubes, which when minimized yields a MaxFlux path. A strategy for minimization is outlined in the spirit of the string method. Finally, alternative approaches based on determining trajectories of high probability are considered, and it is observed that they yield paths that depend on the parameterization of collective variable space, except in the case of zero temperature, where such a path coincides with a MaxFlux path.

Calculating Iso-Committor Surfaces as Optimal Reaction Coordinates with Milestoning

Reaction coordinates are vital tools for qualitative and quantitative analysis of molecular processes. They provide a simple picture of reaction progress and essential input for calculations of free energies and rates. Iso-committor surfaces are considered the optimal reaction coordinate. We present an algorithm to compute efficiently a sequence of isocommittor surfaces. These surfaces are considered an optimal reaction coordinate. The algorithm analyzes Milestoning results to determine the committor function. It requires only the transition probabilities between the milestones, and not transition times. We discuss the following numerical examples: (i) a transition in the Mueller potential; (ii) a conformational change of a solvated peptide; and (iii) cholesterol aggregation in membranes.

An automated method to find reaction mechanisms and solve the kinetics in organometallic catalysis

A novel computational method is proposed in this work for use in discovering reaction mechanisms and solving the kinetics of transition metal-catalyzed reactions. The method does not rely on either chemical intuition or assumed a priori mechanisms, and it works in a fully automated fashion. Its core is a procedure, recently developed by one of the authors, that combines accelerated direct dynamics with an efficient geometry-based post-processing algorithm to find transition states (Martinez-Nunez, E., J. Comput. Chem.2015, 36, 222-234). In the present work, several auxiliary tools have been added to deal with the specific features of transition metal catalytic reactions. As a test case, we chose the cobalt-catalyzed hydroformylation of ethylene because of its well-established mechanism, and the fact that it has already been used in previous automated computational studies. Besides the generally accepted mechanism of Heck and Breslow, several side reactions, such as hydrogenation of the alkene, emerged from our calculations. Additionally, the calculated rate law for the hydroformylation reaction agrees reasonably well with those obtained in previous experimental and theoretical studies.

Perspective: Computer simulations of long time dynamics

Atomically detailed computer simulations of complex molecular events attracted the imagination of many researchers in the field as providing comprehensive information on chemical, biological, and physical processes. However, one of the greatest limitations of these simulations is of time scales. The physical time scales accessible to straightforward simulations are too short to address many interesting and important molecular events. In the last decade significant advances were made in different directions (theory, software, and hardware) that significantly expand the capabilities and accuracies of these techniques. This perspective describes and critically examines some of these advances.

Pathways to self-organization: Crystallization via nucleation and growth

Crystallization, a prototypical self-organization process during which a disordered state spontaneously transforms into a crystal characterized by a regular arrangement of its building blocks, usually proceeds by nucleation and growth. In the initial stages of the transformation, a localized nucleus of the new phase forms in the old one due to a random fluctuation. Most of these nuclei disappear after a short time, but rarely a crystalline embryo may reach a critical size after which further growth becomes thermodynamically favorable and the entire system is converted into the new phase. In this article, we will discuss several theoretical concepts and computational methods to study crystallization. More specifically, we will address the rare event problem arising in the simulation of nucleation processes and explain how to calculate nucleation rates accurately. Particular attention is directed towards discussing statistical tools to analyze crystallization trajectories and identify the transition mechanism.