A study of the accuracy of moment-closure approximations for stochastic chemical kinetics

A modified variational approach to noisy cell signaling

Signaling in cells is full of noise and, hence, described with stochastic biochemical models. Thus, an efficient computation algorithm for these fluctuating reactions is much needed. Apart from the very popular Monte Carlo simulation, methods based on probability distributions are frequently desired due to their analytical tractability and possible numerical advantages in diverse circumstances, among which the variational approach is the most notable. In this paper, new basis functions are proposed to better depict possibly complex distribution profiles, and an extra regularization scheme is supplied to the variational equation to remove occasional degeneracy-induced singularities during the evolution. The new extension is applied to four typical biochemical reaction models and restores the Gillespie results accurately but with greatly reduced simulation time. This modified variational approach is expected to work in a wide range of cell signaling networks.

Holimap: an accurate and efficient method for solving stochastic gene network dynamics

Gene-gene interactions are crucial to the control of sub-cellular processes but our understanding of their stochastic dynamics is hindered by the lack of simulation methods that can accurately and efficiently predict how the distributions of gene product numbers vary across parameter space. To overcome these difficulties, here we present Holimap (high-order linear-mapping approximation), an approach that approximates the protein or mRNA number distributions of a complex gene regulatory network by the distributions of a much simpler reaction system. We demonstrate Holimap's computational advantages over conventional methods by applying it to predict the stochastic time-dependent dynamics of various gene networks, including transcriptional networks ranging from simple autoregulatory loops to complex randomly connected networks, post-transcriptional networks, and post-translational networks. Holimap is ideally suited to study how the intricate network of gene-gene interactions results in precise coordination and control of gene expression.

A Provably Convergent Control Closure Scheme for the Method of Moments of the Chemical Master Equation

In this article, we introduce a novel moment closure scheme based on concepts from model predictive control (MPC) to accurately describe the time evolution of the statistical moments of the solution of the chemical master equation (CME). The method of moments, a set of ordinary differential equations frequently used to calculate the first nm moments, is generally not closed since lower-order moments depend on higher-order moments. To overcome this limitation, we interpret the moment equations as a nonlinear dynamical system, where the first nm moments serve as states, and the closing moments serve as the control input. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach using three example systems and show that it outperforms existing closure schemes. For polynomial systems, which encompass all mass-action systems, we provide probability bounds for the error between true and estimated moment trajectories. We achieve this by combining the convergence properties of a priori moment estimates from stochastic simulations with guarantees for nonlinear reference tracking MPC. Our proposed method offers an effective solution to accurately predict the time evolution of moments of the CME, which has wide-ranging implications for many fields, including biology, chemistry, and engineering.

Bye bye, linearity, bye: quantification of the mean for linear CRNs in a random environment

Molecular reactions within a cell are inherently stochastic, and cells often differ in morphological properties or interact with a heterogeneous environment. Consequently, cell populations exhibit heterogeneity both due to these intrinsic and extrinsic causes. Although state-of-the-art studies that focus on dissecting this heterogeneity use single-cell measurements, the bulk data that shows only the mean expression levels is still in routine use. The fingerprint of the heterogeneity is present also in bulk data, despite being hidden from direct measurement. In particular, this heterogeneity can affect the mean expression levels via bimolecular interactions with low-abundant environment species. We make this statement rigorous for the class of linear reaction systems that are embedded in a discrete state Markov environment. The analytic expression that we provide for the stationary mean depends on the reaction rate constants of the linear subsystem, as well as the generator and stationary distribution of the Markov environment. We demonstrate the effect of the environment on the stationary mean. Namely, we show how the heterogeneous case deviates from the quasi-steady state (Q.SS) case when the embedded system is fast compared to the environment.

The impossible challenge of estimating non-existent moments of the Chemical Master Equation

MOTIVATION

The Chemical Master Equation (CME) is a set of linear differential equations that describes the evolution of the probability distribution on all possible configurations of a (bio-)chemical reaction system. Since the number of configurations and therefore the dimension of the CME rapidly increases with the number of molecules, its applicability is restricted to small systems. A widely applied remedy for this challenge is moment-based approaches which consider the evolution of the first few moments of the distribution as summary statistics for the complete distribution. Here, we investigate the performance of two moment-estimation methods for reaction systems whose equilibrium distributions encounter fat-tailedness and do not possess statistical moments.

RESULTS

We show that estimation via stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) trajectories lose consistency over time and estimated moment values span a wide range of values even for large sample sizes. In comparison, the method of moments returns smooth moment estimates but is not able to indicate the non-existence of the allegedly predicted moments. We furthermore analyze the negative effect of a CME solution's fat-tailedness on SSA run times and explain inherent difficulties. While moment-estimation techniques are a commonly applied tool in the simulation of (bio-)chemical reaction networks, we conclude that they should be used with care, as neither the system definition nor the moment-estimation techniques themselves reliably indicate the potential fat-tailedness of the CME's solution.

Shadow enhancers mediate trade-offs between transcriptional noise and fidelity

Enhancers are stretches of regulatory DNA that bind transcription factors (TFs) and regulate the expression of a target gene. Shadow enhancers are two or more enhancers that regulate the same target gene in space and time and are associated with most animal developmental genes. These multi-enhancer systems can drive more consistent transcription than single enhancer systems. Nevertheless, it remains unclear why shadow enhancer TF binding sites are distributed across multiple enhancers rather than within a single large enhancer. Here, we use a computational approach to study systems with varying numbers of TF binding sites and enhancers. We employ chemical reaction networks with stochastic dynamics to determine the trends in transcriptional noise and fidelity, two key performance objectives of enhancers. This reveals that while additive shadow enhancers do not differ in noise and fidelity from their single enhancer counterparts, sub- and superadditive shadow enhancers have noise and fidelity trade-offs not available to single enhancers. We also use our computational approach to compare the duplication and splitting of a single enhancer as mechanisms for the generation of shadow enhancers and find that the duplication of enhancers can decrease noise and increase fidelity, although at the metabolic cost of increased RNA production. A saturation mechanism for enhancer interactions similarly improves on both of these metrics. Taken together, this work highlights that shadow enhancer systems may exist for several reasons: genetic drift or the tuning of key functions of enhancers, including transcription fidelity, noise and output.

Quantifying the stochasticity of policy parameters in reinforcement learning problems

The stochastic dynamics of reinforcement learning is studied using a master equation formalism. We consider two different problems-Q learning for a two-agent game and the multiarmed bandit problem with policy gradient as the learning method. The master equation is constructed by introducing a probability distribution over continuous policy parameters or over both continuous policy parameters and discrete state variables (a more advanced case). We use a version of the moment closure approximation to solve for the stochastic dynamics of the models. Our method gives accurate estimates for the mean and the (co)variance of policy variables. For the case of the two-agent game, we find that the variance terms are finite at steady state and derive a system of algebraic equations for computing them directly.

A linear noise approximation for stochastic epidemic models fit to partially observed incidence counts

Stochastic epidemic models (SEMs) fit to incidence data are critical to elucidating outbreak dynamics, shaping response strategies, and preparing for future epidemics. SEMs typically represent counts of individuals in discrete infection states using Markov jump processes (MJPs), but are computationally challenging as imperfect surveillance, lack of subject-level information, and temporal coarseness of the data obscure the true epidemic. Analytic integration over the latent epidemic process is impossible, and integration via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is cumbersome due to the dimensionality and discreteness of the latent state space. Simulation-based computational approaches can address the intractability of the MJP likelihood, but are numerically fragile and prohibitively expensive for complex models. A linear noise approximation (LNA) that approximates the MJP transition density with a Gaussian density has been explored for analyzing prevalence data in large-population settings, but requires modification for analyzing incidence counts without assuming that the data are normally distributed. We demonstrate how to reparameterize SEMs to appropriately analyze incidence data, and fold the LNA into a data augmentation MCMC framework that outperforms deterministic methods, statistically, and simulation-based methods, computationally. Our framework is computationally robust when the model dynamics are complex and applies to a broad class of SEMs. We evaluate our method in simulations that reflect Ebola, influenza, and SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, and apply our method to national surveillance counts from the 2013-2015 West Africa Ebola outbreak.

Quantifying biochemical reaction rates from static population variability within incompletely observed complex networks

Quantifying biochemical reaction rates within complex cellular processes remains a key challenge of systems biology even as high-throughput single-cell data have become available to characterize snapshots of population variability. That is because complex systems with stochastic and non-linear interactions are difficult to analyze when not all components can be observed simultaneously and systems cannot be followed over time. Instead of using descriptive statistical models, we show that incompletely specified mechanistic models can be used to translate qualitative knowledge of interactions into reaction rate functions from covariability data between pairs of components. This promises to turn a globally intractable problem into a sequence of solvable inference problems to quantify complex interaction networks from incomplete snapshots of their stochastic fluctuations.

Cluster mean-field theory accurately predicts statistical properties of large-scale DNA methylation patterns

The accurate establishment and maintenance of DNA methylation patterns is vital for mammalian development and disruption to these processes causes human disease. Our understanding of DNA methylation mechanisms has been facilitated by mathematical modelling, particularly stochastic simulations. Megabase-scale variation in DNA methylation patterns is observed in development, cancer and ageing and the mechanisms generating these patterns are little understood. However, the computational cost of stochastic simulations prevents them from modelling such large genomic regions. Here, we test the utility of three different mean-field models to predict summary statistics associated with large-scale DNA methylation patterns. By comparison to stochastic simulations, we show that a cluster mean-field model accurately predicts the statistical properties of steady-state DNA methylation patterns, including the mean and variance of methylation levels calculated across a system of CpG sites, as well as the covariance and correlation of methylation levels between neighbouring sites. We also demonstrate that a cluster mean-field model can be used within an approximate Bayesian computation framework to accurately infer model parameters from data. As mean-field models can be solved numerically in a few seconds, our work demonstrates their utility for understanding the processes underpinning large-scale DNA methylation patterns.

Moment dynamics for gene regulation with rational rate laws

This aim of this paper is mainly to investigate the performance of two typical moment closure schemes in gene regulatory master equations of rational rate laws. When the reaction rate is polynomial, the error bounds between the authentic and approximate moments obtained by schemes of Gaussian moment closure and log-normal moment closure are explicitly given. When the reaction rate is not polynomial, it is shown that the two schemes both behave well in the absence of active-inactive state switch, but in the presence of active-inactive state switch the log-normal closure scheme is far superior to the Gaussian closure scheme in capturing the asymptotic ensemble statistics. Moreover, the accuracy of the log-normal closure method is further confirmed by steady-state analytic results and the conditional Gaussian closure method. It is also disclosed that optimal negative feedback exists in suppressing protein noise in the presence of the on-off switch control.

Chemical Langevin equation: A path-integral view of Gillespie's derivation

In 2000, Gillespie rehabilitated the chemical Langevin equation (CLE) by describing two conditions that must be satisfied for it to yield a valid approximation of the chemical master equation (CME). In this work, we construct an original path-integral description of the CME and show how applying Gillespie's two conditions to it directly leads to a path-integral equivalent to the CLE. We compare this approach to the path-integral equivalent of a large system size derivation and show that they are qualitatively different. In particular, both approaches involve converting many sums into many integrals, and the difference between the two methods is essentially the difference between using the Euler-Maclaurin formula and using Riemann sums. Our results shed light on how path integrals can be used to conceptualize coarse-graining biochemical systems and are readily generalizable.

Filtering and inference for stochastic oscillators with distributed delays

Motivation

The time evolution of molecular species involved in biochemical reaction networks often arises from complex stochastic processes involving many species and reaction events. Inference for such systems is profoundly challenged by the relative sparseness of experimental data, as measurements are often limited to a small subset of the participating species measured at discrete time points. The need for model reduction can be realistically achieved for oscillatory dynamics resulting from negative translational and transcriptional feedback loops by the introduction of probabilistic time-delays. Although this approach yields a simplified model, inference is challenging and subject to ongoing research. The linear noise approximation (LNA) has recently been proposed to address such systems in stochastic form and will be exploited here.

Results

We develop a novel filtering approach for the LNA in stochastic systems with distributed delays, which allows the parameter values and unobserved states of a stochastic negative feedback model to be inferred from univariate time-series data. The performance of the methods is tested for simulated data. Results are obtained for real data when the model is fitted to imaging data on Cry1, a key gene involved in the mammalian central circadian clock, observed via a luciferase reporter construct in a mouse suprachiasmatic nucleus.

Availability and implementation

Programmes are written in MATLAB and Statistics Toolbox Release 2016 b, The MathWorks, Inc., Natick, Massachusetts, USA. Sample code and Cry1 data are available on GitHub https://github.com/scalderazzo/FLNADD.

Supplementary information

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Kinetics of contact processes under segregation

The kinetics of contact processes are determined by the interplay among local mass transfer mechanisms, spatial heterogeneity, and segregation. Determining the macroscopic behavior of a wide variety of phenomena across the disciplines requires linking reaction times to the statistical properties of spatially fluctuating quantities. We formulate the dynamics of advected agents interacting with segregated immobile components in terms of a chemical continuous-time random walk. The inter-reaction times result from the first-passage times of mobile species to and across reactive regions, and available immobile reactants undergo a restart procedure. Segregation leads to memory effects and enhances the role of concentration fluctuations in the large-scale dynamics.

Deciphering noise amplification and reduction in open chemical reaction networks

The impact of fluctuations on the dynamical behaviour of complex biological systems is a longstanding issue, whose understanding would elucidate how evolutionary pressure tends to modulate intrinsic noise. Using the Itō stochastic differential equation formalism, we performed analytic and numerical analyses of model systems containing different molecular species in contact with the environment and interacting with each other through mass-action kinetics. For networks of zero deficiency, which admit a detailed- or complex-balanced steady state, all molecular species are uncorrelated and their Fano factors are Poissonian. Systems of higher deficiency have non-equilibrium steady states and non-zero reaction fluxes flowing between the complexes. When they model homo-oligomerization, the noise on each species is reduced when the flux flows from the oligomers of lowest to highest degree, and amplified otherwise. In the case of hetero-oligomerization systems, only the noise on the highest-degree species shows this behaviour.

The Linear Noise Approximation for Spatially Dependent Biochemical Networks

An algorithm for computing the linear noise approximation (LNA) of the reaction-diffusion master equation (RDME) is developed and tested. The RDME is often used as a model for biochemical reaction networks. The LNA is derived for a general discretization of the spatial domain of the problem. If M is the number of chemical species in the network and N is the number of nodes in the discretization in space, then the computational work to determine approximations of the mean and the covariances of the probability distributions is proportional to [Formula: see text] in a straightforward implementation. In our LNA algorithm, the work is proportional to [Formula: see text]. Since N usually is larger than M, this is a significant reduction. The accuracy of the approximation in the algorithm is estimated analytically and evaluated in numerical experiments.

Spatial Stochastic Intracellular Kinetics: A Review of Modelling Approaches

Models of chemical kinetics that incorporate both stochasticity and diffusion are an increasingly common tool for studying biology. The variety of competing models is vast, but two stand out by virtue of their popularity: the reaction-diffusion master equation and Brownian dynamics. In this review, we critically address a number of open questions surrounding these models: How can they be justified physically? How do they relate to each other? How do they fit into the wider landscape of chemical models, ranging from the rate equations to molecular dynamics? This review assumes no prior knowledge of modelling chemical kinetics and should be accessible to a wide range of readers.

Extending the linear-noise approximation to biochemical systems influenced by intrinsic noise and slow lognormally distributed extrinsic noise

It is well known that the kinetics of an intracellular biochemical network is stochastic. This is due to intrinsic noise arising from the random timing of biochemical reactions in the network as well as due to extrinsic noise stemming from the interaction of unknown molecular components with the network and from the cell's changing environment. While there are many methods to study the effect of intrinsic noise on the system dynamics, few exist to study the influence of both types of noise. Here we show how one can extend the conventional linear-noise approximation to allow for the rapid evaluation of the molecule numbers statistics of a biochemical network influenced by intrinsic noise and by slow lognormally distributed extrinsic noise. The theory is applied to simple models of gene regulatory networks and its validity confirmed by comparison with exact stochastic simulations. In particular, we consider three important biological examples. First, we investigate how extrinsic noise modifies the dependence of the variance of the molecule number fluctuations on the rate constants. Second, we show how the mutual information between input and output of a network motif is affected by extrinsic noise. And third, we study the robustness of the ubiquitously found feed-forward loop motifs when subjected to extrinsic noise.

Accuracy of parameter estimation for auto-regulatory transcriptional feedback loops from noisy data

Bayesian and non-Bayesian moment-based inference methods are commonly used to estimate the parameters defining stochastic models of gene regulatory networks from noisy single cell or population snapshot data. However, a systematic investigation of the accuracy of the predictions of these methods remains missing. Here, we present the results of such a study using synthetic noisy data of a negative auto-regulatory transcriptional feedback loop, one of the most common building blocks of complex gene regulatory networks. We study the error in parameter estimation as a function of (i) number of cells in each sample; (ii) the number of time points; (iii) the highest-order moment of protein fluctuations used for inference; (iv) the moment-closure method used for likelihood approximation. We find that for sample sizes typical of flow cytometry experiments, parameter estimation by maximizing the likelihood is as accurate as using Bayesian methods but with a much reduced computational time. We also show that the choice of moment-closure method is the crucial factor determining the maximum achievable accuracy of moment-based inference methods. Common likelihood approximation methods based on the linear noise approximation or the zero cumulants closure perform poorly for feedback loops with large protein-DNA binding rates or large protein bursts; this is exacerbated for highly heterogeneous cell populations. By contrast, approximating the likelihood using the linear-mapping approximation or conditional derivative matching leads to highly accurate parameter estimates for a wide range of conditions.

Chemical Kinetics Roots and Methods to Obtain the Probability Distribution Function Evolution of Reactants and Products in Chemical Networks Governed by a Master Equation

In this paper first, we review the physical root bases of chemical reaction networks as a Markov process in multidimensional vector space. Then we study the chemical reactions from a microscopic point of view, to obtain the expression for the propensities for the different reactions that can happen in the network. These chemical propensities, at a given time, depend on the system state at that time, and do not depend on the state at an earlier time indicating that we are dealing with Markov processes. Then the Chemical Master Equation (CME) is deduced for an arbitrary chemical network from a probability balance and it is expressed in terms of the reaction propensities. This CME governs the dynamics of the chemical system. Due to the difficulty to solve this equation two methods are studied, the first one is the probability generating function method or z-transform, which permits to obtain the evolution of the factorial moment of the system with time in an easiest way or after some manipulation the evolution of the polynomial moments. The second method studied is the expansion of the CME in terms of an order parameter (system volume). In this case we study first the expansion of the CME using the propensities obtained previously and splitting the molecular concentration into a deterministic part and a random part. An expression in terms of multinomial coefficients is obtained for the evolution of the probability of the random part. Then we study how to reconstruct the probability distribution from the moments using the maximum entropy principle. Finally, the previous methods are applied to simple chemical networks and the consistency of these methods is studied.

An algebraic method to calculate parameter regions for constrained steady-state distribution in stochastic reaction networks

Steady state is an essential concept in reaction networks. Its stability reflects fundamental characteristics of several biological phenomena such as cellular signal transduction and gene expression. Because biochemical reactions occur at the cellular level, they are affected by unavoidable fluctuations. Although several methods have been proposed to detect and analyze the stability of steady states for deterministic models, these methods cannot be applied to stochastic reaction networks. In this paper, we propose an algorithm based on algebraic computations to calculate parameter regions for constrained steady-state distribution of stochastic reaction networks, in which the means and variances satisfy some given inequality constraints. To evaluate our proposed method, we perform computer simulations for three typical chemical reactions and demonstrate that the results obtained with our method are consistent with the simulation results.

Reducing Spreading Processes on Networks to Markov Population Models

Stochastic processes on complex networks, where each node is in one of several compartments, and neighboring nodes interact with each other, can be used to describe a variety of real-world spreading phenomena. However, computational analysis of such processes is hindered by the enormous size of their underlying state space.

In this work, we demonstrate that lumping can be used to reduce any epidemic model to a Markov Population Model (MPM). Therefore, we propose a novel lumping scheme based on a partitioning of the nodes. By imposing different types of counting abstractions, we obtain coarse-grained Markov models with a natural MPM representation that approximate the original systems. This makes it possible to transfer the rich pool of approximation techniques developed for MPMs to the computational analysis of complex networks’ dynamics.

We present numerical examples to investigate the relationship between the accuracy of the MPMs, the size of the lumped state space, and the type of counting abstraction.

Accurate analytic solution of chemical master equations for gene regulation networks in a single cell

Studying gene regulation networks in a single cell is an important, interesting, and hot research topic of molecular biology. Such process can be described by chemical master equations (CMEs). We propose a Hamilton-Jacobi equation method with finite-size corrections to solve such CMEs accurately at the intermediate region of switching, where switching rate is comparable to fast protein production rate. We applied this approach to a model of self-regulating proteins [H. Ge et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 114, 078101 (2015)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.114.078101] and found that as a parameter related to inducer concentration increases the probability of protein production changes from unimodal to bimodal, then to unimodal, consistent with phenotype switching observed in a single cell.

System-size expansion of the moments of a master equation

We study an expansion method of the general multidimensional master equation, based on a system-size expansion of the time evolution equations of the moments. The method turns out to be more accurate than the traditional van Kampen expansion for the first and second moments, with an error that scales with system-size similar to an alternative expansion, also applied to the equations of the moments, called Gaussian approximation, with the advantage that it has less systematic errors. Besides, we analyze a procedure to find the solution of the expansion method and we show different cases where it greatly simplifies. This includes the analytical solution of the average value and fluctuations in the number of infected nodes of the SIS epidemic model in complex networks, under the degree-based approximation.

Solving Stochastic Reaction Networks with Maximum Entropy Lagrange Multipliers

The time evolution of stochastic reaction networks can be modeled with the chemical master equation of the probability distribution. Alternatively, the numerical problem can be reformulated in terms of probability moment equations. Herein we present a new alternative method for numerically solving the time evolution of stochastic reaction networks. Based on the assumption that the entropy of the reaction network is maximum, Lagrange multipliers are introduced. The proposed method derives equations that model the time derivatives of these Lagrange multipliers. We present detailed steps to transform moment equations to Lagrange multiplier equations. In order to demonstrate the method, we present examples of non-linear stochastic reaction networks of varying degrees of complexity, including multistable and oscillatory systems. We find that the new approach is as accurate and significantly more efficient than Gillespie’s original exact algorithm for systems with small number of interacting species. This work is a step towards solving stochastic reaction networks accurately and efficiently.

On Differences between Deterministic and Stochastic Models of Chemical Reactions: Schlögl Solved with ZI-Closure

Deterministic and stochastic models of chemical reaction kinetics can give starkly different results when the deterministic model exhibits more than one stable solution. For example, in the stochastic Schlögl model, the bimodal stationary probability distribution collapses to a unimodal distribution when the system size increases, even for kinetic constant values that result in two distinct stable solutions in the deterministic Schlögl model. Using zero-information (ZI) closure scheme, an algorithm for solving chemical master equations, we compute stationary probability distributions for varying system sizes of the Schlögl model. With ZI-closure, system sizes can be studied that have been previously unattainable by stochastic simulation algorithms. We observe and quantify paradoxical discrepancies between stochastic and deterministic models and explain this behavior by postulating that the entropy of non-equilibrium steady states (NESS) is maximum.

Linear mapping approximation of gene regulatory networks with stochastic dynamics

The presence of protein-DNA binding reactions often leads to analytically intractable models of stochastic gene expression. Here we present the linear-mapping approximation that maps systems with protein-promoter interactions onto approximately equivalent systems with no binding reactions. This is achieved by the marriage of conditional mean-field approximation and the Magnus expansion, leading to analytic or semi-analytic expressions for the approximate time-dependent and steady-state protein number distributions. Stochastic simulations verify the method's accuracy in capturing the changes in the protein number distributions with time for a wide variety of networks displaying auto- and mutual-regulation of gene expression and independently of the ratios of the timescales governing the dynamics. The method is also used to study the first-passage time distribution of promoter switching, the sensitivity of the size of protein number fluctuations to parameter perturbation and the stochastic bifurcation diagram characterizing the onset of multimodality in protein number distributions.

Insights into noise modulation in oligomerization systems of increasing complexity

Understanding under which conditions the increase of systems complexity is evolutionarily advantageous, and how this trend is related to the modulation of the intrinsic noise, are fascinating issues of utmost importance for synthetic and systems biology. To get insights into these matters, we analyzed a series of chemical reaction networks with different topologies and complexity, described by mass-action kinetics. We showed, analytically and numerically, that the global level of fluctuations at the steady state, measured by the sum over all species of the Fano factors of the number of molecules, is directly related to the network's deficiency. For zero-deficiency systems, this sum is constant and equal to the rank of the network. For higher deficiencies, additional terms appear in the Fano factor sum, which are proportional to the net reaction fluxes between the molecular complexes. We showed that the system's global intrinsic noise is reduced when all fluxes flow from lower to higher degree oligomers, or equivalently, towards the species of higher complexity, whereas it is amplified when the fluxes are directed towards lower complexity species.

Linear approximations of global behaviors in nonlinear systems with moderate or strong noise

While many physical or chemical systems can be modeled by nonlinear Langevin equations (LEs), dynamical analysis of these systems is challenging in the cases of moderate and strong noise. Here we develop a linear approximation scheme, which can transform an often intractable LE into a linear set of binomial moment equations (BMEs). This scheme provides a feasible way to capture nonlinear behaviors in the sense of probability distribution and is effective even when the noise is moderate or big. Based on BMEs, we further develop a noise reduction technique, which can effectively handle tough cases where traditional small-noise theories are inapplicable. The overall method not only provides an approximation-based paradigm to analysis of the local and global behaviors of nonlinear noisy systems but also has a wide range of applications.

Single-cell variability in multicellular organisms

Noisy gene expression is of fundamental importance to single cells, and is therefore widely studied in single-celled organisms. Extending these studies to multicellular organisms is challenging since their cells are generally not isolated, but individuals in a tissue. Cell–cell coupling via signalling, active transport or pure diffusion, ensures that tissue-bound cells are neither fully independent of each other, nor an entirely homogeneous population. In this article, we show that increasing the strength of coupling between cells can either increase or decrease the single-cell variability (and, therefore, the heterogeneity of the tissue), depending on the statistical properties of the underlying genetic network. We confirm these predictions using spatial stochastic simulations of simple genetic networks, and experimental data from animal and plant tissues. The results suggest that cell–cell coupling may be one of several noise-control strategies employed by multicellular organisms, and highlight the need for a deeper understanding of multicellular behaviour.

While gene expression noise in single-celled organisms is well understood, it is less so in the context of tissues. Here the authors show that coupling between cells in tissues can increase or decrease cell-to-cell variability depending on the level of noise intrinsic to the regulatory networks.

Diagnostics for assessing the linear noise and moment closure approximations

Solving the chemical master equation exactly is typically not possible, so instead we must rely on simulation based methods. Unfortunately, drawing exact realisations, results in simulating every reaction that occurs. This will preclude the use of exact simulators for models of any realistic size and so approximate algorithms become important. In this paper we describe a general framework for assessing the accuracy of the linear noise and two moment approximations. By constructing an efficient space filling design over the parameter region of interest, we present a number of useful diagnostic tools that aids modellers in assessing whether the approximation is suitable. In particular, we leverage the normality assumption of the linear noise and moment closure approximations.

Statistical physics approaches to subnetwork dynamics in biochemical systems

We apply a Gaussian variational approximation to model reduction in large biochemical networks of unary and binary reactions. We focus on a small subset of variables (subnetwork) of interest, e.g. because they are accessible experimentally, embedded in a larger network (bulk). The key goal is to write dynamical equations reduced to the subnetwork but still retaining the effects of the bulk. As a result, the subnetwork-reduced dynamics contains a memory term and an extrinsic noise term with non-trivial temporal correlations. We first derive expressions for this memory and noise in the linearized (Gaussian) dynamics and then use a perturbative power expansion to obtain first order nonlinear corrections. For the case of vanishing intrinsic noise, our description is explicitly shown to be equivalent to projection methods up to quadratic terms, but it is applicable also in the presence of stochastic fluctuations in the original dynamics. An example from the epidermal growth factor receptor signalling pathway is provided to probe the increased prediction accuracy and computational efficiency of our method.

Exact lower and upper bounds on stationary moments in stochastic biochemical systems

In the stochastic description of biochemical reaction systems, the time evolution of statistical moments for species population counts is described by a linear dynamical system. However, except for some ideal cases (such as zero- and first-order reaction kinetics), the moment dynamics is underdetermined as lower-order moments depend upon higher-order moments. Here, we propose a novel method to find exact lower and upper bounds on stationary moments for a given arbitrary system of biochemical reactions. The method exploits the fact that statistical moments of any positive-valued random variable must satisfy some constraints that are compactly represented through the positive semidefiniteness of moment matrices. Our analysis shows that solving moment equations at steady state in conjunction with constraints on moment matrices provides exact lower and upper bounds on the moments. These results are illustrated by three different examples-the commonly used logistic growth model, stochastic gene expression with auto-regulation and an activator-repressor gene network motif. Interestingly, in all cases the accuracy of the bounds is shown to improve as moment equations are expanded to include higher-order moments. Our results provide avenues for development of approximation methods that provide explicit bounds on moments for nonlinear stochastic systems that are otherwise analytically intractable.

A moment-convergence method for stochastic analysis of biochemical reaction networks

Traditional moment-closure methods need to assume that high-order cumulants of a probability distribution approximate to zero. However, this strong assumption is not satisfied for many biochemical reaction networks. Here, we introduce convergent moments (defined in mathematics as the coefficients in the Taylor expansion of the probability-generating function at some point) to overcome this drawback of the moment-closure methods. As such, we develop a new analysis method for stochastic chemical kinetics. This method provides an accurate approximation for the master probability equation (MPE). In particular, the connection between low-order convergent moments and rate constants can be more easily derived in terms of explicit and analytical forms, allowing insights that would be difficult to obtain through direct simulation or manipulation of the MPE. In addition, it provides an accurate and efficient way to compute steady-state or transient probability distribution, avoiding the algorithmic difficulty associated with stiffness of the MPE due to large differences in sizes of rate constants. Applications of the method to several systems reveal nontrivial stochastic mechanisms of gene expression dynamics, e.g., intrinsic fluctuations can induce transient bimodality and amplify transient signals, and slow switching between promoter states can increase fluctuations in spatially heterogeneous signals. The overall approach has broad applications in modeling, analysis, and computation of complex biochemical networks with intrinsic noise.

Generalized method of moments for estimating parameters of stochastic reaction networks

BACKGROUND

Discrete-state stochastic models have become a well-established approach to describe biochemical reaction networks that are influenced by the inherent randomness of cellular events. In the last years several methods for accurately approximating the statistical moments of such models have become very popular since they allow an efficient analysis of complex networks.

RESULTS

We propose a generalized method of moments approach for inferring the parameters of reaction networks based on a sophisticated matching of the statistical moments of the corresponding stochastic model and the sample moments of population snapshot data. The proposed parameter estimation method exploits recently developed moment-based approximations and provides estimators with desirable statistical properties when a large number of samples is available. We demonstrate the usefulness and efficiency of the inference method on two case studies.

CONCLUSIONS

The generalized method of moments provides accurate and fast estimations of unknown parameters of reaction networks. The accuracy increases when also moments of order higher than two are considered. In addition, the variance of the estimator decreases, when more samples are given or when higher order moments are included.

Experimental Design for Stochastic Models of Nonlinear Signaling Pathways Using an Interval-Wise Linear Noise Approximation and State Estimation

BACKGROUND

Computational modeling is a key technique for analyzing models in systems biology. There are well established methods for the estimation of the kinetic parameters in models of ordinary differential equations (ODE). Experimental design techniques aim at devising experiments that maximize the information encoded in the data. For ODE models there are well established approaches for experimental design and even software tools. However, data from single cell experiments on signaling pathways in systems biology often shows intrinsic stochastic effects prompting the development of specialized methods. While simulation methods have been developed for decades and parameter estimation has been targeted for the last years, only very few articles focus on experimental design for stochastic models.

METHODS

The Fisher information matrix is the central measure for experimental design as it evaluates the information an experiment provides for parameter estimation. This article suggest an approach to calculate a Fisher information matrix for models containing intrinsic stochasticity and high nonlinearity. The approach makes use of a recently suggested multiple shooting for stochastic systems (MSS) objective function. The Fisher information matrix is calculated by evaluating pseudo data with the MSS technique.

RESULTS

The performance of the approach is evaluated with simulation studies on an Immigration-Death, a Lotka-Volterra, and a Calcium oscillation model. The Calcium oscillation model is a particularly appropriate case study as it contains the challenges inherent to signaling pathways: high nonlinearity, intrinsic stochasticity, a qualitatively different behavior from an ODE solution, and partial observability. The computational speed of the MSS approach for the Fisher information matrix allows for an application in realistic size models.

Inference for Stochastic Chemical Kinetics Using Moment Equations and System Size Expansion

Quantitative mechanistic models are valuable tools for disentangling biochemical pathways and for achieving a comprehensive understanding of biological systems. However, to be quantitative the parameters of these models have to be estimated from experimental data. In the presence of significant stochastic fluctuations this is a challenging task as stochastic simulations are usually too time-consuming and a macroscopic description using reaction rate equations (RREs) is no longer accurate. In this manuscript, we therefore consider moment-closure approximation (MA) and the system size expansion (SSE), which approximate the statistical moments of stochastic processes and tend to be more precise than macroscopic descriptions. We introduce gradient-based parameter optimization methods and uncertainty analysis methods for MA and SSE. Efficiency and reliability of the methods are assessed using simulation examples as well as by an application to data for Epo-induced JAK/STAT signaling. The application revealed that even if merely population-average data are available, MA and SSE improve parameter identifiability in comparison to RRE. Furthermore, the simulation examples revealed that the resulting estimates are more reliable for an intermediate volume regime. In this regime the estimation error is reduced and we propose methods to determine the regime boundaries. These results illustrate that inference using MA and SSE is feasible and possesses a high sensitivity.

In this manuscript, we introduce efficient methods for parameter estimation for stochastic processes. The stochasticity of chemical reactions can influence the average behavior of the considered system. For some biological systems, a microscopic, stochastic description is computationally intractable but a macroscopic, deterministic description too inaccurate. This inaccuracy manifests itself in an error in parameter estimates, which impede the predictive power of the proposed model. Until now, no rigorous analysis on the magnitude of the estimation error exists. We show by means of two simulation examples that using mesoscopic descriptions based on the system size expansions and moment-closure approximations can reduce this estimation error compared to inference using a macroscopic description. This reduction is most pronounced in an intermediate volume regime where the influence of stochasticity on the average behavior is moderately strong. For the JAK/STAT pathway where experimental data is available, we show that one parameter that was not structurally identifiable when using a macroscopic description becomes structurally identifiable when using a mesoscopic description for parameter estimation.

Deterministic analysis of extrinsic and intrinsic noise in an epidemiological model

We couple a stochastic collocation method with an analytical expansion of the canonical epidemiological master equation to analyze the effects of both extrinsic and intrinsic noise. It is shown that depending on the distribution of the extrinsic noise, the master equation yields quantitatively different results compared to using the expectation of the distribution for the stochastic parameter. This difference is incident to the nonlinear terms in the master equation, and we show that the deviation away from the expectation of the extrinsic noise scales nonlinearly with the variance of the distribution. The method presented here converges linearly with respect to the number of particles in the system and exponentially with respect to the order of the polynomials used in the stochastic collocation calculation. This makes the method presented here more accurate than standard Monte Carlo methods, which suffer from slow, nonmonotonic convergence. In epidemiological terms, the results show that extrinsic fluctuations should be taken into account since they effect the speed of disease breakouts and that the gamma distribution should be used to model the basic reproductive number.

Promoters Architecture-Based Mechanism for Noise-Induced Oscillations in a Single-Gene Circuit

It is well known that single-gene circuits with negative feedback loop can lead to oscillatory gene expression when they operate with time delay. In order to generate these oscillations many processes can contribute to properly timing such delay. Here we show that the time delay coming from the transitions between internal states of the cis-regulatory system (CRS) can drive sustained oscillations in an auto-repressive single-gene circuit operating in a small volume like a cell. We found that the cooperative binding of repressor molecules is not mandatory for a oscillatory behavior if there are enough binding sites in the CRS. These oscillations depend on an adequate balance between the CRS kinetic, and the synthesis/degradation rates of repressor molecules. This finding suggest that the multi-site CRS architecture can play a key role for oscillatory behavior of gene expression. Finally, our results can also help to synthetic biologists on the design of the promoters architecture for new genetic oscillatory circuits.

A Hybrid of the Chemical Master Equation and the Gillespie Algorithm for Efficient Stochastic Simulations of Sub-Networks

Modeling stochastic behavior of chemical reaction networks is an important endeavor in many aspects of chemistry and systems biology. The chemical master equation (CME) and the Gillespie algorithm (GA) are the two most fundamental approaches to such modeling; however, each of them has its own limitations: the GA may require long computing times, while the CME may demand unrealistic memory storage capacity. We propose a method that combines the CME and the GA that allows one to simulate stochastically a part of a reaction network. First, a reaction network is divided into two parts. The first part is simulated via the GA, while the solution of the CME for the second part is fed into the GA in order to update its propensities. The advantage of this method is that it avoids the need to solve the CME or stochastically simulate the entire network, which makes it highly efficient. One of its drawbacks, however, is that most of the information about the second part of the network is lost in the process. Therefore, this method is most useful when only partial information about a reaction network is needed. We tested this method against the GA on two systems of interest in biology - the gene switch and the Griffith model of a genetic oscillator—and have shown it to be highly accurate. Comparing this method to four different stochastic algorithms revealed it to be at least an order of magnitude faster than the fastest among them.

Stochasticity in the miR-9/Hes1 oscillatory network can account for clonal heterogeneity in the timing of differentiation

Recent studies suggest that cells make stochastic choices with respect to differentiation or division. However, the molecular mechanism underlying such stochasticity is unknown. We previously proposed that the timing of vertebrate neuronal differentiation is regulated by molecular oscillations of a transcriptional repressor, HES1, tuned by a post-transcriptional repressor, miR-9. Here, we computationally model the effects of intrinsic noise on the Hes1/miR-9 oscillator as a consequence of low molecular numbers of interacting species, determined experimentally. We report that increased stochasticity spreads the timing of differentiation in a population, such that initially equivalent cells differentiate over a period of time. Surprisingly, inherent stochasticity also increases the robustness of the progenitor state and lessens the impact of unequal, random distribution of molecules at cell division on the temporal spread of differentiation at the population level. This advantageous use of biological noise contrasts with the view that noise needs to be counteracted.

Minimal moment equations for stochastic models of biochemical reaction networks with partially finite state space

Many stochastic models of biochemical reaction networks contain some chemical species for which the number of molecules that are present in the system can only be finite (for instance due to conservation laws), but also other species that can be present in arbitrarily large amounts. The prime example of such networks are models of gene expression, which typically contain a small and finite number of possible states for the promoter but an infinite number of possible states for the amount of mRNA and protein. One of the main approaches to analyze such models is through the use of equations for the time evolution of moments of the chemical species. Recently, a new approach based on conditional moments of the species with infinite state space given all the different possible states of the finite species has been proposed. It was argued that this approach allows one to capture more details about the full underlying probability distribution with a smaller number of equations. Here, I show that the result that less moments provide more information can only stem from an unnecessarily complicated description of the system in the classical formulation. The foundation of this argument will be the derivation of moment equations that describe the complete probability distribution over the finite state space but only low-order moments over the infinite state space. I will show that the number of equations that is needed is always less than what was previously claimed and always less than the number of conditional moment equations up to the same order. To support these arguments, a symbolic algorithm is provided that can be used to derive minimal systems of unconditional moment equations for models with partially finite state space.

Linear-noise approximation and the chemical master equation agree up to second-order moments for a class of chemical systems

It is well known that the linear-noise approximation (LNA) agrees with the chemical master equation, up to second-order moments, for chemical systems composed of zero and first-order reactions. Here we show that this is also a property of the LNA for a subset of chemical systems with second-order reactions. This agreement is independent of the number of interacting molecules.

Reconstructing the hidden states in time course data of stochastic models

Parameter estimation is central for analyzing models in Systems Biology. The relevance of stochastic modeling in the field is increasing. Therefore, the need for tailored parameter estimation techniques is increasing as well. Challenges for parameter estimation are partial observability, measurement noise, and the computational complexity arising from the dimension of the parameter space. This article extends the multiple shooting for stochastic systems' method, developed for inference in intrinsic stochastic systems. The treatment of extrinsic noise and the estimation of the unobserved states is improved, by taking into account the correlation between unobserved and observed species. This article demonstrates the power of the method on different scenarios of a Lotka-Volterra model, including cases in which the prey population dies out or explodes, and a Calcium oscillation system. Besides showing how the new extension improves the accuracy of the parameter estimates, this article analyzes the accuracy of the state estimates. In contrast to previous approaches, the new approach is well able to estimate states and parameters for all the scenarios. As it does not need stochastic simulations, it is of the same order of speed as conventional least squares parameter estimation methods with respect to computational time.

Approximate probability distributions of the master equation

Master equations are common descriptions of mesoscopic systems. Analytical solutions to these equations can rarely be obtained. We here derive an analytical approximation of the time-dependent probability distribution of the master equation using orthogonal polynomials. The solution is given in two alternative formulations: a series with continuous and a series with discrete support, both of which can be systematically truncated. While both approximations satisfy the system size expansion of the master equation, the continuous distribution approximations become increasingly negative and tend to oscillations with increasing truncation order. In contrast, the discrete approximations rapidly converge to the underlying non-Gaussian distributions. The theory is shown to lead to particularly simple analytical expressions for the probability distributions of molecule numbers in metabolic reactions and gene expression systems.