Epidemic spreading with activity-driven awareness diffusion on multiplex network

Impact of community structure on the spread of epidemics on time-varying multiplex networks

Community structure plays a crucial role in realistic networks and different communities can be created by groups of interest and activity events, and exploring the impact of community properties on collective dynamics is an active topic in the field of network science. Here, we propose a new coupled model with different time scales for online social networks and offline epidemic spreading networks, in which community structure is added into online social networks to investigate its role in the interacting dynamics between information diffusion and epidemic spreading. We obtain the analytical equations of epidemic threshold by MMC (Microscopic Markov Chain) method and conduct a large quantities of numerical simulations using Monte Carlo simulations in order to verify the accuracy of the MMC method, and more valuable insights are also obtained. The results indicate that an increase in the probability of the mobility of an individual can delay the spread of epidemic-related information in the network, as well as delaying the time of the peak of the infection density in the network. However, an increase in the contact ability of mobile individuals produces a facilitating effect on the spread of epidemics. Finally, it is also found that the stronger the acceptance of an individual to information coming from a different community, the lower the infection density in the network, which suggests that it has an inhibitory effect on the disease spreading.

A Multi-Information Spreading Model for One-Time Retweet Information in Complex Networks

In the realm of online social networks, the spreading of information is influenced by a complex interplay of factors. To explore the dynamics of one-time retweet information spreading, we propose a Susceptible-Infected-Completed (SIC) multi-information spreading model. This model captures how multiple pieces of information interact in online social networks by introducing inhibiting and enhancement factors. The SIC model considers the completed state, where nodes cease to spread a particular piece of information after transmitting it. It also takes into account the impact of past and present information received from neighboring nodes, dynamically calculating the probability of nodes spreading each piece of information at any given moment. To analyze the dynamics of multiple information pieces in various scenarios, such as mutual enhancement, partial competition, complete competition, and coexistence of competition and enhancement, we conduct experiments on BA scale-free networks and the Twitter network. Our findings reveal that competing information decreases the likelihood of its spread while cooperating information amplifies the spreading of mutually beneficial content. Furthermore, the strength of the enhancement factor between different information pieces determines their spread when competition and cooperation coexist. These insights offer a fresh perspective for understanding the patterns of information propagation in multiple contexts.

Reconnoitering NGOs strategies to strengthen disaster risk communication (DRC) in Pakistan: A conventional content analysis approach

Risk communication is crucial since individuals need to understand how they are at risk and what proper steps to deal with flood events. Sharing information with the public opens the door for two-way communication about risks, wherein you learn about people's perspectives and work together to find ways to mitigate the risks. Beyond government scope, relief organizations play a big part in advising individuals about the likelihood of catastrophic events as they possess the commonalities that define community engagement. In numerous accounts of devastating events, the failure of risk management groups to coordinate their efforts and the public's mistrust of relief agencies are highlighted. One possible explanation for this skepticism could be relief organizations' failures in communicating risks. In addition, individuals' lack of skills and experience with catastrophes has left rural residents unprepared, which is why relief agencies need to raise their efforts or measures to communicate with people about possible risks. If these measures are uncovered, it could improve public communication and provide information for formulating recommendations to prevent fatalities. This study identifies the strategies used by relief organizations in enhancing disaster risk communication across four severely affected districts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. The qualitative research used semi-structured interviews with 50 participants from relief organizations, local institutions, and affected households. We employed qualitative content analysis and NVivo software to analyze the data. The findings of this study highlighted some significant strategies that relief organizations adopted in this line of work: the administration of educational and information transmission, managing obstacles in communication, and managing inter-organizational communications. The findings validate the potential for relief organizations to become change agents, facilitate communication between the public and relief organizations, and ultimately strengthen community resilience and reduce disaster risks as part of local responses.

The use of networks in spatial and temporal computational models for outbreak spread in epidemiology: A systematic review

OBJECTIVES

To examine recent literature in order to present a comprehensive overview of the current trends as regards the computational models used to represent the propagation of an infectious outbreak in a population, paying particular attention to those that represent network-based transmission.

METHODS

a systematic review was conducted following the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines. Papers published in English between 2010 and September 2021 were sought in the ACM Digital Library, IEEE Xplore, PubMed and Scopus databases.

RESULTS

Upon considering their titles and abstracts, 832 papers were obtained, of which 192 were selected for a full content-body check. Of these, 112 studies were eventually deemed suitable for quantitative and qualitative analysis. Emphasis was placed on the spatial and temporal scales studied, the use of networks or graphs, and the granularity of the data used to evaluate the models. The models principally used to represent the spreading of outbreaks have been stochastic (55.36%), while the type of networks most frequently used are relationship networks (32.14%). The most common spatial dimension used is a region (19.64%) and the most used unit of time is a day (28.57%). Synthetic data as opposed to an external source were used in 51.79% of the papers. With regard to the granularity of the data sources, aggregated data such as censuses or transportation surveys are the most common.

CONCLUSION

We identified a growing interest in the use of networks to represent disease transmission. We detected that research is focused on only certain combinations of the computational model, type of network (in both the expressive and the structural sense) and spatial scale, while the search for other interesting combinations has been left for the future.

Impact of simplicial complexes on epidemic spreading in partially mapping activity-driven multiplex networks

Over the past decade, the coupled spread of information and epidemic on multiplex networks has become an active and interesting topic. Recently, it has been shown that stationary and pairwise interactions have limitations in describing inter-individual interactions , and thus, the introduction of higher-order representation is significant. To this end, we present a new two-layer activity-driven network epidemic model, which considers the partial mapping relationship among nodes across two layers and simultaneously introduces simplicial complexes into one layer, to investigate the effect of 2-simplex and inter-layer mapping rate on epidemic transmission. In this model, the top network, called the virtual information layer, characterizes information dissemination in online social networks, where information can be diffused through simplicial complexes and/or pairwise interactions. The bottom network, named as the physical contact layer, denotes the spread of infectious diseases in real-world social networks. It is noteworthy that the correspondence among nodes between two networks is not one-to-one but partial mapping. Then, a theoretical analysis using the microscopic Markov chain (MMC) method is performed to obtain the outbreak threshold of epidemics, and extensive Monte Carlo (MC) simulations are also carried out to validate the theoretical predictions. It is obviously shown that MMC method can be used to estimate the epidemic threshold; meanwhile, the inclusion of simplicial complexes in the virtual layer or introductory partial mapping relationship between layers can inhibit the spread of epidemics. Current results are conducive to understanding the coupling behaviors between epidemics and disease-related information.

A coupled awareness-epidemic model on a multi-layer time-varying network

Social interactions have become more complicated and changeable under the influence of information technology revolution. We, thereby, propose a multi-layer activity-driven network with attractiveness considering the heterogeneity of activated individual edge numbers, which aims to explore the role of heterogeneous behaviors in the time-varying network. Specifically, three types of individual behaviors are introduced: (i) self-quarantine of infected individuals, (ii) safe social distancing between infected and susceptible individuals, and (iii) information spreading of aware individuals. Epidemic threshold is theoretically derived in terms of the microscopic Markov chain approach and the mean-field approach. The results demonstrate that performing self-quarantine and maintaining safe social distance can effectively raise the epidemic threshold and suppress the spread of diseases. Interestingly, individuals' activity and individuals' attractiveness have an equivalent effect on epidemic threshold under the same condition. In addition, a similar result can be obtained regardless of the activated individual edge numbers. The epidemic outbreak earlier in a situation of the stronger heterogeneity of activated individual edge numbers.

Influential nodes identification in complex networks: a comprehensive literature review

Researchers have paid a lot of attention to complex networks in recent decades. Due to their rapid evolution, they turn into a major scientific and innovative field. Several studies on complex networks are carried out, and other subjects are evolving every day such as the challenge of detecting influential nodes. In this study, we provide a brief overview of complex networks, as well as several concepts key related to measurements, the structure of complex network and social influence, an important state of the art on complex networks including basic metrics on complex networks, the evolution of their topology over the years as well as the dynamic of networks. A detailed literature about influential finding approaches is also provided to indicate their strength and shortcomings. We aim that our contribution of literature can be an interesting base of information for beginners' scientists in this field. At the end of this paper, some conclusions are drawn and some future perspectives are mentioned to be studied as new directions in the future. More detailed references are provided to go further and deep in this area.

Interplay of simplicial awareness contagion and epidemic spreading on time-varying multiplex networks

There has been growing interest in exploring the dynamical interplay of epidemic spreading and awareness diffusion within the multiplex network framework. Recent studies have demonstrated that pairwise interactions are not enough to characterize social contagion processes, but the complex mechanisms of influence and reinforcement should be considered. Meanwhile, the physical social interaction of individuals is not static but time-varying. Therefore, we propose a novel sUAU-tSIS model to characterize the interplay of simplicial awareness contagion and epidemic spreading on time-varying multiplex networks, in which one layer with 2-simplicial complexes is considered the virtual information layer to address the complex contagion mechanisms in awareness diffusion and the other layer with time-varying and memory effects is treated as the physical contact layer to mimic the temporal interaction pattern among population. The microscopic Markov chain approach based theoretical analysis is developed, and the epidemic threshold is also derived. The experimental results show that our theoretical method is in good agreement with the Monte Carlo simulations. Specifically, we find that the synergistic reinforcement mechanism coming from the group interactions promotes the diffusion of awareness, leading to the suppression of the spreading of epidemics. Furthermore, our results illustrate that the contact capacity of individuals, activity heterogeneity, and memory strength also play important roles in the two dynamics; interestingly, a crossover phenomenon can be observed when investigating the effects of activity heterogeneity and memory strength.

The interplay between disease spreading and awareness diffusion in multiplex networks with activity-driven structure

The interplay between disease and awareness has been extensively studied in static networks. However, most networks in reality will evolve over time. Based on this, we propose a novel epidemiological model in multiplex networks. In this model, the disease spreading layer is a time-varying network generated by the activity-driven model, while the awareness diffusion layer is a static network, and the heterogeneity of individual infection and recovery ability is considered. First, we extend the microscopic Markov chain approach to analytically obtain the epidemic threshold of the model. Then, we simulate the spread of disease and find that stronger heterogeneity in the individual activities of a physical layer can promote disease spreading, while stronger heterogeneity of the virtual layer network will hinder the spread of disease. Interestingly, we find that when the individual infection ability follows Gaussian distribution, the heterogeneity of infection ability has little effect on the spread of disease, but it will significantly affect the epidemic threshold when the individual infection ability follows power-law distribution. Finally, we find the emergence of a metacritical point where the diffusion of awareness is able to control the onset of the epidemics. Our research could cast some light on exploring the dynamics of epidemic spreading in time-varying multiplex networks.

The effect of information literacy heterogeneity on epidemic spreading in information and epidemic coupled multiplex networks

With the COVID-19 pandemic, better understanding of the co-evolution of information and epidemic diffusion networks is important for pandemic-related policies. Using the microscopic Markov chain method, this study proposed an aware-susceptible-infected model (ASI) to explore the effect of information literacy on the spreading process in such multiplex networks. We first introduced a parameter that adjusts the self-protection related execution ability of aware individuals in order to emphasis the importance of protective behaviors compared to awareness in decreasing the infection probability. The model also captures individuals' heterogeneity in their information literacy. Simulation experiments found that the high information-literate individuals are more sensitive to information adoption. In addition, epidemic information can help to suppress the epidemic diffusion only when individuals' abilities of transforming awareness into actual protective behaviors attain a threshold. In communities dominated by highly literate individuals, a larger information literacy gap can improve awareness acquisition and thus help to suppress the epidemic among the whole group. By contrast, in communities dominated by low information-literate individuals, a smaller information literacy gap can better prevent the epidemic diffusion. This study contributes to the literature by revealing the importance of individuals' heterogeneity of information literacy on epidemic spreading in different communities and has implications for how to inform people when a new epidemic disease emerges.

Identifying and Ranking Influential Nodes in Complex Networks Based on Dynamic Node Strength

Identifying and ranking the node influence in complex networks is an important issue. It helps to understand the dynamics of spreading process for designing efficient strategies to hinder or accelerate information spreading. The idea of decomposing network to rank node influence is adopted widely because of low computational complexity. Of this type, decomposition is a dynamic process, and each iteration could be regarded as an inverse process of spreading. In this paper, we propose a new ranking method, Dynamic Node Strength Decomposition, based on decomposing network. The spreading paths are distinguished by weighting the edges according to the nodes at both ends. The change of local structure in the process of decomposition is considered. Our experimental results on four real networks with different sizes show that the proposed method can generate a more monotonic ranking list and identify node influence more effectively.

Modeling the competitive diffusions of rumor and knowledge and the impacts on epidemic spreading

The interaction between epidemic spreading and information diffusion is an interdisciplinary research problem. During an epidemic, people tend to take self-protective measures to reduce the infection risk. However, with the diffusion of rumor, people may be difficult to make an appropriate choice. How to reduce the negative impact of rumor and to control epidemic has become a critical issue in the social network. Elaborate mathematical model is instructive to understand such complex dynamics. In this paper, we develop a two-layer network to model the interaction between the spread of epidemic and the competitive diffusions of information. The results show that knowledge diffusion can eradicate both rumor and epidemic, where the penetration intensity of knowledge into rumor plays a vital role. Specifically, the penetration intensity of knowledge significantly increases the thresholds for rumor and epidemic to break out, even when the self-protective measure is not perfectly effective. But eradicating rumor shouldn't be equated with eradicating epidemic. The epidemic can be eradicated with rumor still diffusing, and the epidemic may keep spreading with rumor being eradicated. Moreover, the communication-layer network structure greatly affects the spread of epidemic in the contact-layer network. When people have more connections in the communication-layer network, the knowledge is more likely to diffuse widely, and the rumor and epidemic can be eradicated more efficiently. When the communication-layer network is sparse, a larger penetration intensity of knowledge into rumor is required to promote the diffusion of knowledge.

The Dynamical Interplay of Collective Attention, Awareness and Epidemics Spreading in the Multiplex Social Networks During COVID-19

Leveraging social and communication technologies, we can digitally observe that the collective attention typically exhibits a heterogeneous structure. It shows that people's interests are organized in clusters around different topics, but the rising of an extraordinary emergency event, as the coronavirus disease epidemics, channels the people's attention into a more homogenized structure, shifting it as triggered by a non-random collective process. The connectedness of networked individuals, on multiple social levels, impacts on the attention, representing a tuning element of different behavioural outcomes, changing the awareness diffusion enough to produce effects on epidemics spreading. We propose a mathematical framework to model the interplay between the collective attention and the co-evolving processes of awareness diffusion, modelled as a social contagion phenomenon, and epidemic spreading on weighted multiplex networks. Our proposed modeling approach structures a systematically understanding as a social network marker of interdependent collective dynamics through the introduction of the multiplex dimension of both networked individuals and topics, quantifying the role of human-related factors, as homophily, network properties, and heterogeneity. We introduce a data-driven approach by integrating different types of data, digitally traced as user-generated data from Twitter and Google Trends, in response to an extraordinary emergency event as coronavirus disease. Our findings demonstrate how the proposed model allows us to quantify the reaction of the collective attention, proving that it can represent a social predictive marker of the awareness dynamics, unveiling the impact on epidemic spreading, for a timely crisis response planning. Simulations results shed light on the coherence between the data-driven approach and the proposed analytical model.

Coevolution spreading in complex networks

The propagations of diseases, behaviors and information in real systems are rarely independent of each other, but they are coevolving with strong interactions. To uncover the dynamical mechanisms, the evolving spatiotemporal patterns and critical phenomena of networked coevolution spreading are extremely important, which provide theoretical foundations for us to control epidemic spreading, predict collective behaviors in social systems, and so on. The coevolution spreading dynamics in complex networks has thus attracted much attention in many disciplines. In this review, we introduce recent progress in the study of coevolution spreading dynamics, emphasizing the contributions from the perspectives of statistical mechanics and network science. The theoretical methods, critical phenomena, phase transitions, interacting mechanisms, and effects of network topology for four representative types of coevolution spreading mechanisms, including the coevolution of biological contagions, social contagions, epidemic-awareness, and epidemic-resources, are presented in detail, and the challenges in this field as well as open issues for future studies are also discussed.

Epidemic spreading with awareness diffusion on activity-driven networks

Acknowledging the significance of awareness diffusion and behavioral response in contagion outbreaks has been regarded as an indispensable prerequisite for a complete understanding of epidemic spreading. Recent studies from the research community have accumulated overwhelming evidence for the incessantly evolving structure of the underlying networks. Thus there is an impelling need to capture the interplay between the epidemic spreading and awareness diffusion on time-varying networks. In this paper, we consider a behavioral model in which susceptible individuals become alert and adopt a preventive behavior under the local risk perception characterized by a decision-making threshold. The impact of awareness diffusion on the epidemic threshold is investigated under the framework of activity-driven network. Results show that the local epidemic situation in risk perception and the duration of preventive effect are crucial for raising the epidemic threshold. The analytical results are corroborated by Monte Carlo simulations.

The impact of individual heterogeneity on the coupled awareness-epidemic dynamics in multiplex networks

Awareness of disease outbreaks can trigger changes in human behavior and has a significant impact on the spread of epidemics. Previous studies usually considered the coupled awareness-epidemic dynamics to be two competing processes that interact in the information and epidemic layers. However, these studies mostly assumed that all aware individuals have the same reduced infectivity and that different neighbors have the same influence on one's perception, ignoring the heterogeneity of individuals. In this paper, we propose a coupled awareness-epidemic spreading model in multiplex networks incorporating three types of heterogeneity: (1) the heterogeneity of individual responses to disease outbreaks, (2) the influence heterogeneity in the epidemic layer, and (3) the influence heterogeneity in the information layer. The theoretical analysis shows that the influence heterogeneity in the information layer has two-stage effects on the epidemic threshold. Moreover, we find that the epidemic threshold in the higher stage depends on the heterogeneity of individual responses and the influence heterogeneity in the epidemic layer, while the epidemic threshold in the lower stage is independent of awareness spreading and individual behaviors. The results give us a better understanding of how individual heterogeneity affects epidemic spreading and provide some practical implications for the control of epidemics.

The impact of individual heterogeneity on the coupled awareness-epidemic dynamics in multiplex networks

Awareness of disease outbreaks can trigger changes in human behavior and has a significant impact on the spread of epidemics. Previous studies usually considered the coupled awareness-epidemic dynamics to be two competing processes that interact in the information and epidemic layers. However, these studies mostly assumed that all aware individuals have the same reduced infectivity and that different neighbors have the same influence on one's perception, ignoring the heterogeneity of individuals. In this paper, we propose a coupled awareness-epidemic spreading model in multiplex networks incorporating three types of heterogeneity: (1) the heterogeneity of individual responses to disease outbreaks, (2) the influence heterogeneity in the epidemic layer, and (3) the influence heterogeneity in the information layer. The theoretical analysis shows that the influence heterogeneity in the information layer has two-stage effects on the epidemic threshold. Moreover, we find that the epidemic threshold in the higher stage depends on the heterogeneity of individual responses and the influence heterogeneity in the epidemic layer, while the epidemic threshold in the lower stage is independent of awareness spreading and individual behaviors. The results give us a better understanding of how individual heterogeneity affects epidemic spreading and provide some practical implications for the control of epidemics.

Quantifying the propagation of distress and mental disorders in social networks

Heterogeneity of human beings leads to think and react differently to social phenomena. Awareness and homophily drive people to weigh interactions in social multiplex networks, influencing a potential contagion effect. To quantify the impact of heterogeneity on spreading dynamics, we propose a model of coevolution of social contagion and awareness, through the introduction of statistical estimators, in a weighted multiplex network. Multiplexity of networked individuals may trigger propagation enough to produce effects among vulnerable subjects experiencing distress, mental disorder, which represent some of the strongest predictors of suicidal behaviours. The exposure to suicide is emotionally harmful, since talking about it may give support or inadvertently promote it. To disclose the complex effect of the overlapping awareness on suicidal ideation spreading among disordered people, we also introduce a data-driven approach by integrating different types of data. Our modelling approach unveils the relationship between distress and mental disorders propagation and suicidal ideation spreading, shedding light on the role of awareness in a social network for suicide prevention. The proposed model is able to quantify the impact of overlapping awareness on suicidal ideation spreading and our findings demonstrate that it plays a dual role on contagion, either reinforcing or delaying the contagion outbreak.

Resource control of epidemic spreading through a multilayer network

While the amount of resource is an important factor in control of contagions, outbreaks may occur when they reach a finite fraction of the population. An unexplored issue is how much the resource amount is invested to control this outbreak. Here we analyze a mechanic model of epidemic spreading, which considers both resource factor and network layer. We find that there is a resource threshold, such that a significant fraction of the total population may be infected (i.e., an outbreak will occur) if the amount of resource is below this threshold, but the outbreak may be effectively eradicated if it is beyond the threshold. The threshold is dependent upon both the connection strength between the layers and their internal structure. We also find that the layer-layer connection strength can lead to the phase transition from the first-order phase to the continuous one or vice versa, whereas the internal connection can result in a different kind of phase transition (i.e., the so-called hybrid phase transition) apart from first-order and continuous one. Our results could have important implications for government decisions on public health resources devoted to epidemic disease control.

The Impact of Heterogeneity and Awareness in Modeling Epidemic Spreading on Multiplex Networks

In the real world, dynamic processes involving human beings are not disjoint. To capture the real complexity of such dynamics, we propose a novel model of the coevolution of epidemic and awareness spreading processes on a multiplex network, also introducing a preventive isolation strategy. Our aim is to evaluate and quantify the joint impact of heterogeneity and awareness, under different socioeconomic conditions. Considering, as case study, an emerging public health threat, Zika virus, we introduce a data-driven analysis by exploiting multiple sources and different types of data, ranging from Big Five personality traits to Google Trends, related to different world countries where there is an ongoing epidemic outbreak. Our findings demonstrate how the proposed model allows delaying the epidemic outbreak and increasing the resilience of nodes, especially under critical economic conditions. Simulation results, using data-driven approach on Zika virus, which has a growing scientific research interest, are coherent with the proposed analytic model.

The Role of Node Heterogeneity in the Coupled Spreading of Epidemics and Awareness

Exploring the interplay between information spreading and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. As an efficient means of depicting the spreading of information, which manifests as a cascade phenomenon, awareness cascading is utilized to investigate this coupled transmission. Because in reality, different individuals facing the same epidemic will exhibit distinct behaviors according to their own experiences and attributes, it is important for us to consider the heterogeneity of individuals. Consequently, we propose a heterogeneous spreading model. To describe the heterogeneity, two of the most important but radically different methods for this purpose, the degree and k-core measures, are studied in this paper through three models based on different assumptions. Adopting a Markov chain approach, we succeed in predicting the epidemic threshold trend. Furthermore, we find that when the k-core measure is used to classify individuals, the spreading process is robust to these models, meaning that regardless of the model used, the spreading process is nearly identical at the macroscopic level. In addition, the k-core measure leads to a much larger final epidemic size than the degree measure. These results are cross-checked through numerous simulations, not only of a synthetic network but also of a real multiplex network. The presented findings provide a better understanding of k-core individuals and reveal the importance of considering network structure when investigating various dynamic processes.