Probabilistic performance estimators for computational chemistry methods: The empirical cumulative distribution function of absolute errors

Divergent spatiotemporal variability of terrestrial water storage and eight hydroclimatic components over three different scales of the Yangtze River basin

Terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-on was first exacted by using the forward modeling (FM) method at three different scales over the Yangtze River basin (YRB): whole basin, three middle sub-basins, and eleven small sub-basins (total 15 basins). The spatiotemporal variability of eight hydroclimatic variables, snow water storage change (SnWS), canopy water storage change (CnWS), surface water storage anomaly (SWSA), soil moisture storage anomaly (SMSA), groundwater storage anomaly (GWSA), precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), and runoff (R), and their contribution to TWSA were comprehensively investigated over the YRB. The results showed that the root mean square error of TWS change after FM improved by 17 %, as validated by in situ P, ET, and R data. The seasonal, inter-annual, and trend revealed that TWSA over the YRB increased during 2003-2018. The seasonal TWSA signal increased from the lower to the upper of YRB, but the trend, sub-seasonal, and inter-annual signals receded from the lower to the upper of YRB. The contribution of CnWS to TWSA was small over the YRB. The contribution of SnWS to TWSA occurs mainly in the upper of YRB. The main contributors to TWSA were SMSA (~36 %), SWSA (~33 %), and GWSA (~30 %). GWSA can be affected by TWSA, but other hydrological elements may have a slight impact on groundwater in the YRB. The primary driver of TWSA over the YRB was P (~46 %), followed by ET and R (both ~27 %). The contribution of SMSA, SWSA, and P to TWSA increased from the upper to the lower of YRB. R was the key driver of TWSA in the lower of YRB. The proposed approaches and results of this study can provide valuable new insights for water resource management in the YRB and can be applied globally.

Identification of osteosarcoma m6A-related prognostic biomarkers using artificial intelligence: RBM15

Osteosarcoma has the worst prognosis among malignant bone tumors, and effective biomarkers are lacking. Our study aims to explore m6A-related and immune-related biomarkers. Gene expression profiles of osteosarcoma and healthy controls were downloaded from multiple public databases, and their m6A-based gene expression was utilized for tumor typing using bioinformatics. Subsequently, a prognostic model for osteosarcoma was constructed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and multivariate Cox regression analysis, and its immune cell composition was calculated using the CIBERSORTx algorithm. We also performed drug sensitivity analysis for these two genes. Finally, analysis was validated using immunohistochemistry. We also examined the RBM15 gene by qRT-PCR in an in vitro experiment. We collected routine blood data from 1738 patients diagnosed with osteosarcoma and 24,344 non-osteosarcoma patients and used two independent sample t tests to verify the accuracy of the CIBERSORTx analysis for immune cell differences. The analysis based on m6A gene expression tumor typing was most reliable using the two typing methods. The prognostic model based on the two genes constituting RNA-binding motif protein 15 (RBM15) and YTDC1 had a much lower survival rate for patients in the high-risk group than those in the low-risk group (P < 0.05). CIBERSORTx immune cell component analysis demonstrated that RBM15 showed a negative and positive correlation with T cells gamma delta and activated natural killer cells, respectively. Drug sensitivity analysis showed that these two genes showed varying degrees of correlation with multiple drugs. The results of immunohistochemistry revealed that the expression of these two genes was significantly higher in osteosarcoma than in paraneoplastic tissues. The results of qRT-PCR experiments showed that the expression of RBM15 was significantly higher in both osteosarcomas than in the control cell lines. Absolute lymphocyte value, lymphocyte percentage, hematocrit and erythrocyte count were lower in osteosarcoma than in the control group (P < 0.001). RBM15 and YTHDC1 can serve as potential prognostic biomarkers associated with m6A in osteosarcoma.

DFT exchange: sharing perspectives on the workhorse of quantum chemistry and materials science

In this paper, the history, present status, and future of density-functional theory (DFT) is informally reviewed and discussed by 70 workers in the field, including molecular scientists, materials scientists, method developers and practitioners. The format of the paper is that of a roundtable discussion, in which the participants express and exchange views on DFT in the form of 302 individual contributions, formulated as responses to a preset list of 26 questions. Supported by a bibliography of 777 entries, the paper represents a broad snapshot of DFT, anno 2022.

Machine learning, artificial intelligence, and chemistry: how smart algorithms are reshaping simulation and the laboratory

Machine learning and artificial intelligence are increasingly gaining in prominence through image analysis, language processing, and automation, to name a few applications. Machine learning is also making profound changes in chemistry. From revisiting decades-old analytical techniques for the purpose of creating better calibration curves, to assisting and accelerating traditional in silico simulations, to automating entire scientific workflows, to being used as an approach to deduce underlying physics of unexplained chemical phenomena, machine learning and artificial intelligence are reshaping chemistry, accelerating scientific discovery, and yielding new insights. This review provides an overview of machine learning and artificial intelligence from a chemist’s perspective and focuses on a number of examples of the use of these approaches in computational chemistry and in the laboratory.

The long road to calibrated prediction uncertainty in computational chemistry

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in computational chemistry (CC) is still in its infancy. Very few CC methods are designed to provide a confidence level on their predictions, and most users still rely improperly on the mean absolute error as an accuracy metric. The development of reliable UQ methods is essential, notably for CC to be used confidently in industrial processes. A review of the CC-UQ literature shows that there is no common standard procedure to report or validate prediction uncertainty. I consider here analysis tools using concepts (calibration and sharpness) developed in meteorology and machine learning for the validation of probabilistic forecasters. These tools are adapted to CC-UQ and applied to datasets of prediction uncertainties provided by composite methods, Bayesian ensembles methods, and machine learning and a posteriori statistical methods.

Should We Gain Confidence from the Similarity of Results between Methods?

Confirming the result of a calculation by a calculation with a different method is often seen as a validity check. However, when the methods considered are all subject to the same (systematic) errors, this practice fails. Using a statistical approach, we define measures for reliability and similarity, and we explore the extent to which the similarity of results can help improve our judgment of the validity of data. This method is illustrated on synthetic data and applied to two benchmark datasets extracted from the literature: band gaps of solids estimated by various density functional approximations, and effective atomization energies estimated by ab initio and machine-learning methods. Depending on the levels of bias and correlation of the datasets, we found that similarity may provide a null-to-marginal improvement in reliability and was mostly effective in eliminating large errors.

Critical benchmarking of popular composite thermochemistry models and density functional approximations on a probabilistically pruned benchmark dataset of formation enthalpies

First-principles calculation of the standard formation enthalpy, ΔH_f° (298 K), in such a large scale as required by chemical space explorations, is amenable only with density functional approximations (DFAs) and certain composite wave function theories (cWFTs). Unfortunately, the accuracies of popular range-separated hybrid, "rung-4" DFAs, and cWFTs that offer the best accuracy-vs-cost trade-off have until now been established only for datasets predominantly comprising small molecules; their transferability to larger systems remains vague. In this study, we present an extended benchmark dataset of ΔH_f° for structurally and electronically diverse molecules. We apply quartile-ranking based on boundary-corrected kernel density estimation to filter outliers and arrive at probabilistically pruned enthalpies of 1694 compounds (PPE1694). For this dataset, we rank the prediction accuracies of G4, G4(MP2), ccCA, CBS-QB3, and 23 popular DFAs using conventional and probabilistic error metrics. We discuss systematic prediction errors and highlight the role an empirical higher-level correction plays in the G4(MP2) model. Furthermore, we comment on uncertainties associated with the reference empirical data for atoms and the systematic errors stemming from these that grow with the molecular size. We believe that these findings will aid in identifying meaningful application domains for quantum thermochemical methods.

Influence of Electronic Structure Modeling and Junction Structure on First-Principles Chiral Induced Spin Selectivity

We have carried out a comprehensive study of the influence of electronic structure modeling and junction structure description on the first-principles calculation of the spin polarization in molecular junctions caused by the chiral induced spin selectivity (CISS) effect. We explore the limits and the sensitivity to modeling decisions of a Landauer/Green's function/two-component density functional theory approach to CISS. We find that although the CISS effect is entirely attributed in the literature to molecular spin filtering, spin-orbit coupling being partially inherited from the metal electrodes plays an important role in our calculations on ideal carbon helices, even though this effect cannot explain the experimental conductance results. Its magnitude depends considerably on the shape, size, and material of the metal clusters modeling the electrodes. Also, a pronounced dependence on the specific description of exchange interaction and spin-orbit coupling is manifest in our approach. This is important because the interplay between exchange effects and spin-orbit coupling may play an important role in the description of the junction magnetic response. Our calculations are relevant for the whole field of spin-polarized electron transport and electron transfer, because there is still an open discussion in the literature about the detailed underlying mechanism and the magnitude of physical parameters that need to be included to achieve a consistent description of the CISS effect: seemingly good quantitative agreement between simulation and the experiment can be caused by error compensation, because spin polarization as contained in a Landauer/Green's function/two-component density functional theory approach depends strongly on computational and structural parameters.

Neural Network Reflectance Prediction Model for Both Open Ocean and Coastal Waters

Remote sensing of global ocean color is a valuable tool for understanding the ecology and biogeochemistry of the worlds oceans, and provides critical input to our knowledge of the global carbon cycle and the impacts of climate change. Ocean polarized reflectance contains information about the constituents of the upper ocean euphotic zone, such as colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), sediments, phytoplankton, and pollutants. In order to retrieve the information on these constituents, remote sensing algorithms typically rely on radiative transfer models to interpret water color or remote-sensing reflectance; however, this can be resource-prohibitive for operational use due to the extensive CPU time involved in radiative transfer solutions. In this work, we report a fast model based on machine learning techniques, called Neural Network Reflectance Prediction Model (NNRPM), which can be used to predict ocean bidirectional polarized reflectance given inherent optical properties of ocean waters. This supervised model is trained using a large volume of data derived from radiative transfer simulations for coupled atmosphere and ocean systems using the successive order of scattering technique (SOS-CAOS). The performance of the model is validated against another large independent test dataset generated from SOS-CAOS. The model is able to predict both polarized and unpolarized reflectances with an absolute error (AE) less than 0.004 for 99% of test cases. We have also shown that the degree of linear polarization (DoLP) for unpolarized incident light can be predicted with an AE less than 0.002 for 99% of test cases. In general, the simulation time of SOS-CAOS depends on optical depth, and required accuracy. When comparing the average speeds of the NNRPM against the SOS-CAOS model for the same parameters, we see that the NNRPM is able to predict the Ocean BRDF 6000 times faster than SOS-CAOS. Both ultraviolet and visible wavelengths are included in the model to help differentiate between dissolved organic material and chlorophyll in the study of the open ocean and the coastal zone. The incorporation of this model into the retrieval algorithm will make the retrieval process more efficient, and thus applicable for operational use with global satellite observations.

Probabilistic performance estimators for computational chemistry methods: Systematic improvement probability and ranking probability matrix. I. Theory

The comparison of benchmark error sets is an essential tool for the evaluation of theories in computational chemistry. The standard ranking of methods by their mean unsigned error is unsatisfactory for several reasons linked to the non-normality of the error distributions and the presence of underlying trends. Complementary statistics have recently been proposed to palliate such deficiencies, such as quantiles of the absolute error distribution or the mean prediction uncertainty. We introduce here a new score, the systematic improvement probability, based on the direct system-wise comparison of absolute errors. Independent of the chosen scoring rule, the uncertainty of the statistics due to the incompleteness of the benchmark datasets is also generally overlooked. However, this uncertainty is essential to appreciate the robustness of rankings. In the present article, we develop two indicators based on robust statistics to address this problem: P_inv, the inversion probability between two values of a statistic, and P_r, the ranking probability matrix. We demonstrate also the essential contribution of the correlations between error sets in these scores comparisons.

Density Functional Theory as a Data Science

The development of density functional theory (DFT) functionals and physical corrections are reviewed focusing on the physical meanings and the semiempirical parameters from the viewpoint of data science. This review shows that DFT exchange-correlation functionals have been developed under many strict physical conditions with minimizing the number of the semiempirical parameters, except for some recent functionals. Major physical corrections for exchange-correlation function- als are also shown to have clear physical meanings independent of the functionals, though they inevitably require minimum semiempirical parameters dependent on the functionals combined. We, therefore, interpret that DFT functionals with physical corrections are the most sophisticated target functions that are physically legitimated, even from the viewpoint of data science.

Designing in the Face of Uncertainty: Exploiting Electronic Structure and Machine Learning Models for Discovery in Inorganic Chemistry

Recent transformative advances in computing power and algorithms have made computational chemistry central to the discovery and design of new molecules and materials. First-principles simulations are increasingly accurate and applicable to large systems with the speed needed for high-throughput computational screening. Despite these strides, the combinatorial challenges associated with the vastness of chemical space mean that more than just fast and accurate computational tools are needed for accelerated chemical discovery. In transition-metal chemistry and catalysis, unique challenges arise. The variable spin, oxidation state, and coordination environments favored by elements with well-localized d or f electrons provide great opportunity for tailoring properties in catalytic or functional (e.g., magnetic) materials but also add layers of uncertainty to any design strategy. We outline five key mandates for realizing computationally driven accelerated discovery in inorganic chemistry: (i) fully automated simulation of new compounds, (ii) knowledge of prediction sensitivity or accuracy, (iii) faster-than-fast property prediction methods, (iv) maps for rapid chemical space traversal, and (v) a means to reveal design rules on the kilocompound scale. Through case studies in open-shell transition-metal chemistry, we describe how advances in methodology and software in each of these areas bring about new chemical insights. We conclude with our outlook on the next steps in this process toward realizing fully autonomous discovery in inorganic chemistry using computational chemistry.

Statistical Analysis of Semiclassical Dispersion Corrections

Semiclassical dispersion corrections developed by Grimme and co-workers have become indispensable in applications of Kohn-Sham density functional theory. A deeper understanding of the underlying parametrization might be crucial for well-founded further improvements of this successful approach. To this end, we present an in-depth assessment of the fit parameters present in semiclassical (D3-type) dispersion corrections by means of a statistically rigorous analysis. We find that the choice of the cost function generally has a small effect on the empirical parameters of D3-type dispersion corrections with respect to the reference set under consideration. Only in a few cases, the choice of cost function has a surprisingly large effect on the total dispersion energies. In particular, the weighting scheme in the cost function can significantly affect the reliability of predictions. In order to obtain unbiased (data-independent) uncertainty estimates for both the empirical fit parameters and the corresponding predictions, we carried out a nonparametric bootstrap analysis. This analysis reveals that the standard deviation of the mean of the empirical D3 parameters is small. Moreover, the mean prediction uncertainty obtained by bootstrapping is not much larger than previously reported error measures. On the basis of a jackknife analysis, we find that the original reference set is slightly skewed, but our results also suggest that this feature hardly affects the prediction of dispersion energies. Furthermore, we find that the introduction of small uncertainties to the reference data does not change the conclusions drawn in this work. However, a rigorous analysis of error accumulation arising from different parametrizations reveals that error cancellation does not necessarily occur, leading to a monotonically increasing deviation in the dispersion energy with increasing molecule size. We discuss this issue in detail at the prominent example of the C₆₀ "buckycatcher". We find deviations between individual parametrizations of several tens of kilocalories per mole in some cases. Hence, in combination with any calculation of dispersion energies, we recommend to always determine the associated uncertainties for which we will provide a software tool.