Probabilistic performance estimators for computational chemistry methods: Systematic improvement probability and ranking probability matrix. I. Theory

Statistical Equivalence of Quantum Chemical Methods for Energy Distribution in Water Clusters

Methods of quantum chemistry are instrumental in understanding molecular structures and properties. However, the results demonstrate significant variability, which is difficult to predict and rationalize. The fundamental question is whether some molecular systems exhibit properties invariant with respect to the computational method. The idea explored here is that collective properties of statistical ensembles should be more robust than characteristics of individual molecules and their arbitrary sets. This effect is demonstrated for the complete set of hydrogen-bond topologies of the dodecahedral water cluster (H₂ O)₂₀ . Non-Gaussian energy distributions produced by various methods have the same functional form despite strong differences in mean values and standard deviations. The conclusion is tested on methods of different complexity and origin employing a number of criteria. A linear mapping between the energies produced by different methods is discussed. The significance of the results is in establishing a collective equivalence property of quantum chemical methods.

DFT exchange: sharing perspectives on the workhorse of quantum chemistry and materials science

In this paper, the history, present status, and future of density-functional theory (DFT) is informally reviewed and discussed by 70 workers in the field, including molecular scientists, materials scientists, method developers and practitioners. The format of the paper is that of a roundtable discussion, in which the participants express and exchange views on DFT in the form of 302 individual contributions, formulated as responses to a preset list of 26 questions. Supported by a bibliography of 777 entries, the paper represents a broad snapshot of DFT, anno 2022.

Machine learning, artificial intelligence, and chemistry: how smart algorithms are reshaping simulation and the laboratory

Machine learning and artificial intelligence are increasingly gaining in prominence through image analysis, language processing, and automation, to name a few applications. Machine learning is also making profound changes in chemistry. From revisiting decades-old analytical techniques for the purpose of creating better calibration curves, to assisting and accelerating traditional in silico simulations, to automating entire scientific workflows, to being used as an approach to deduce underlying physics of unexplained chemical phenomena, machine learning and artificial intelligence are reshaping chemistry, accelerating scientific discovery, and yielding new insights. This review provides an overview of machine learning and artificial intelligence from a chemist’s perspective and focuses on a number of examples of the use of these approaches in computational chemistry and in the laboratory.

Should We Gain Confidence from the Similarity of Results between Methods?

Confirming the result of a calculation by a calculation with a different method is often seen as a validity check. However, when the methods considered are all subject to the same (systematic) errors, this practice fails. Using a statistical approach, we define measures for reliability and similarity, and we explore the extent to which the similarity of results can help improve our judgment of the validity of data. This method is illustrated on synthetic data and applied to two benchmark datasets extracted from the literature: band gaps of solids estimated by various density functional approximations, and effective atomization energies estimated by ab initio and machine-learning methods. Depending on the levels of bias and correlation of the datasets, we found that similarity may provide a null-to-marginal improvement in reliability and was mostly effective in eliminating large errors.

A Generalized Regression Neural Network Model for Predicting the Curing Characteristics of Carbon Black-Filled Rubber Blends

In this study, a new generalized regression neural network model for predicting the curing characteristics of rubber blends with different contents of carbon black filler cured at various temperatures is proposed for the first time The carbon black contents in the rubber blend and cure temperature were used as input parameters, while the minimum and maximum elastic torque, scorch time, and optimal cure time, obtained from the analysis of 11 rheological cure curves registered at 10 various temperatures, were considered as output parameters of the model. A special pre-processing procedure of the experimental input and target data and the training algorithm is described. Less than 55% of the experimental data were used to significantly reduce the total number of input and target data points needed for training the model. Satisfactory agreement between the predicted and experimental data, with a maximum error in the prediction not exceeding 5%, was found. It is concluded that the generalized regression neural network is a powerful tool for intelligently modelling the curing process of rubber blends even in the case of a small dataset, and it can find a wide range of practical applications in the rubber industry.

Uncertainty quantification in classical molecular dynamics

Molecular dynamics simulation is now a widespread approach for understanding complex systems on the atomistic scale. It finds applications from physics and chemistry to engineering, life and medical science. In the last decade, the approach has begun to advance from being a computer-based means of rationalizing experimental observations to producing apparently credible predictions for a number of real-world applications within industrial sectors such as advanced materials and drug discovery. However, key aspects concerning the reproducibility of the method have not kept pace with the speed of its uptake in the scientific community. Here, we present a discussion of uncertainty quantification for molecular dynamics simulation designed to endow the method with better error estimates that will enable it to be used to report actionable results. The approach adopted is a standard one in the field of uncertainty quantification, namely using ensemble methods, in which a sufficiently large number of replicas are run concurrently, from which reliable statistics can be extracted. Indeed, because molecular dynamics is intrinsically chaotic, the need to use ensemble methods is fundamental and holds regardless of the duration of the simulations performed. We discuss the approach and illustrate it in a range of applications from materials science to ligand-protein binding free energy estimation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Reliability and reproducibility in computational science: implementing verification, validation and uncertainty quantification in silico'.

Critical benchmarking of popular composite thermochemistry models and density functional approximations on a probabilistically pruned benchmark dataset of formation enthalpies

First-principles calculation of the standard formation enthalpy, ΔH_f° (298 K), in such a large scale as required by chemical space explorations, is amenable only with density functional approximations (DFAs) and certain composite wave function theories (cWFTs). Unfortunately, the accuracies of popular range-separated hybrid, "rung-4" DFAs, and cWFTs that offer the best accuracy-vs-cost trade-off have until now been established only for datasets predominantly comprising small molecules; their transferability to larger systems remains vague. In this study, we present an extended benchmark dataset of ΔH_f° for structurally and electronically diverse molecules. We apply quartile-ranking based on boundary-corrected kernel density estimation to filter outliers and arrive at probabilistically pruned enthalpies of 1694 compounds (PPE1694). For this dataset, we rank the prediction accuracies of G4, G4(MP2), ccCA, CBS-QB3, and 23 popular DFAs using conventional and probabilistic error metrics. We discuss systematic prediction errors and highlight the role an empirical higher-level correction plays in the G4(MP2) model. Furthermore, we comment on uncertainties associated with the reference empirical data for atoms and the systematic errors stemming from these that grow with the molecular size. We believe that these findings will aid in identifying meaningful application domains for quantum thermochemical methods.