Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) Declines Follow Bison (Bison bison) Reintroduction on Private Conservation Grasslands

Simple Summary

North American grassland birds evolved with American bison (Bison bison), until overhunting drove bison to near-extinction > 150 years ago. Bison have now been reintroduced to many areas that provide important nesting habitat for grassland birds, which are now among the most rapidly declining birds in North America. However, little is known about bison interactions with birds such as Bobolinks (Dolichonyx oryzivorus), obligate grassland nesting songbirds of conservation concern. Using data collected over an 18-year period, we assessed the effects of bison reintroduction, together with other land management and climate factors, on Bobolinks in a private conservation area comprising 24 km² of native grasslands in the North American Great Plains. In grasslands where bison were reintroduced, Bobolink abundance (adult numbers) declined by 62%, and productivity (juvenile numbers) declined by 84%. By contrast, Bobolink populations remained stable over the same time period in adjacent grasslands where bison were not reintroduced. Bobolink abundance and productivity increased in years following warmer and wetter winters, but nevertheless declined over time in grasslands where the bison population doubled. Where bison are reintroduced and confined in high densities, overgrazing, trampling, and related impacts may drive severe declines in Bobolinks and other grassland birds of conservation concern.

Abstract

Among the most rapidly declining birds in continental North America, grassland birds evolved with American bison (Bison bison) until bison nearly became extinct due to overhunting. Bison populations have subsequently rebounded due to reintroductions on conservation lands, but the impacts of bison on grassland nesting birds remain largely unknown. We investigated how bison reintroduction, together with other land management and climate factors, affected breeding populations of a grassland bird species of conservation concern, the Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus). We quantified population changes in Bobolinks over an 18-year period in conservation grasslands where bison were reintroduced, compared with adjacent grasslands grazed by cattle and where hay was harvested after the bird breeding season. Four years after bison reintroduction, the bison population in the study area had doubled, while Bobolink abundance declined 62% and productivity declined 84%. Our findings suggest that bison reintroduction as a conservation strategy may be counterproductive in grassland fragments where overgrazing, trampling, and other negative impacts drive declines in grassland breeding birds. Where bird conservation is an objective, small grassland reserves may therefore be inappropriate sites for bison reintroduction. To maximize conservation benefits to birds, land managers should prioritize protecting grassland birds from disturbance during the bird breeding season.

The effects of weather variability on patterns of genetic diversity in Tasmanian bettongs

While the effects of climate (long-term, prevailing weather) on species abundance, range and genetic diversity have been widely studied, short-term, localized variations in atmospheric conditions (i.e., weather) can also rapidly alter species' geographical ranges and population sizes, but little is known about how they affect genetic diversity. We investigated the relationship between weather and range-wide genetic diversity in a marsupial, Bettongia gaimardi, using dynamic species distribution models (SDMs). Genetic diversity was lower in parts of the range where the weather-based SDM predicted high variability in probability of B. gaimardi occurrence during 1950-2009. This is probably an effect of lower population sizes and extinction-recolonization cycles in places with highly variable weather. Spatial variation in genetic diversity was also better predicted by mean probabilities of B. gaimardi occurrence from weather- than climate-based SDMs. Our results illustrate the importance of weather in driving population dynamics and species distributions on decadal timescales and thereby in affecting genetic diversity. Modelling the links between changing weather patterns, species distributions and genetic diversity will allow researchers to better forecast biological impacts of climate change.

Invasive predators represent the greatest extinction threat to the endangered northern bettong (Bettongia tropica)

Context Identification of key threats to endangered species is vital for devising effective management strategies, but may be hindered when relevant data is limited. A population viability approach may overcome this problem. Aims We aimed to determine the population viability of endangered northern bettongs (Bettongia tropica) in north-eastern Australia. We also assessed the key threats to the population resilience and how the population viability responds to increases in mortality rates and changes in fire and drought frequency. Methods Using population viability analysis (PVA) we modelled survival probability of B. tropica populations under likely scenarios, including: (1) increased predation; (2) changes in drought and fire frequency predicted with anthropogenic climate change; and (3) synergistic effects of predation, fire and drought. Key results Population viability models suggest that populations are highly vulnerable to increases in predation by feral cats (Felis catus), and potentially red fox (Vulpes vulpes) should they colonise the area, as juvenile mortality is the main age class driving population viability. If B. tropica become more vulnerable to predators during post-fire vegetation recovery, more frequent fires could exacerbate effects of low-level cat predation. In contrast, it was predicted that populations would be resilient to the greater frequency of droughts expected as a result of climate change, with high probabilities of extinctions only predicted under the unprecedented and unlikely scenario of four drought years in 10. However, since drought and fire are interlinked, the impacts of predation could be more severe with climate change should predation and fire interact to increase B. tropica mortality risk. Conclusion Like other Potoroids, B. tropica appear highly vulnerable to predation by introduced mammalian predators such as feral cats. Implications Managers need information allowing them to recognise scenarios when populations are most vulnerable to potential threats, such as drought, fire and predation. PVA modelling can assess scenarios and allow pro-active management based on predicted responses rather than requiring collection of extensive field data before management actions. Our analysis suggests that assessing and controlling predator populations and thereby minimising predation, particularly of juveniles, should assist in maintaining stability of populations of the northern bettong.

Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data

Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate variability is low, and assess how species' potential distributions may have already shifted due recent climate change. However, long-term climate averages require less data and processing time and may be more readily available for some areas of interest. Where data on short-term climate variability are not available, long-term climate information is a sufficient predictor of species distributions in many cases. However, short-term climate variability data may provide information not captured with long-term climate data for use in SDMs.