Bipolar correlation of volcanism with millennial climate change

Volcanic hazard exacerbated by future global warming-driven increase in heavy rainfall

Heavy rainfall drives a range of eruptive and non-eruptive volcanic hazards. Over the Holocene, the incidence of many such hazards has increased due to rapid climate change. Here, we show that extreme heavy rainfall is projected to increase with continued global warming throughout the twenty-first century in most subaerial volcanic regions, increasing the potential for rainfall-induced volcanic hazards. This result is based on a comparative analysis of nine general circulation models, and is prevalent across a wide range of spatial scales, from countries and volcanic arcs down to individual volcanic systems. Our results suggest that if global warming continues unchecked, the incidence of primary and secondary rainfall-related volcanic activity-such as dome explosions or flank collapse-will increase at more than 700 volcanoes around the globe. Improved coupling between scientific observations-in particular, of local and regional precipitation-and policy decisions may go some way towards mitigating the increased risk throughout the next 80 years.

Climate Change according to Ecuadorian academics–Perceptions versus facts

Climate change has become one of the most important topics in each country’s government agendas. The current effects demand quicker actions in order to decrease the speed at which the global warming and climate is changing, which are commonly seen in global agreements to reduce pollution. However, the main changes to face and mitigate such phenomena depends on each country´s decision and not on global agreements as the causes are continent-wide although the effects and magnitudes may be local. One of the key components for an effective adaption and mitigation is the role that the population have over national decisions. For this reason, the level of awareness and knowledge about what is occurring in their surroundings vital, thus the importance of a correct information broadcast and education. For the aforementioned reasons, the current study compares the recent perception of a well-educated Ecuadorean community regarding the climate change worldwide and in Ecuador with the scientific evidence and historical facts, and how it affects its vulnerability to the climate change effects.

Underestimated risks of recurrent long-range ash dispersal from northern Pacific Arc volcanoes

Widespread ash dispersal poses a significant natural hazard to society, particularly in relation to disruption to aviation. Assessing the extent of the threat of far-travelled ash clouds on flight paths is substantially hindered by an incomplete volcanic history and an underestimation of the potential reach of distant eruptive centres. The risk of extensive ash clouds to aviation is thus poorly quantified. New evidence is presented of explosive Late Pleistocene eruptions in the Pacific Arc, currently undocumented in the proximal geological record, which dispersed ash up to 8000 km from source. Twelve microscopic ash deposits or cryptotephra, invisible to the naked eye, discovered within Greenland ice-cores, and ranging in age between 11.1 and 83.7 ka b2k, are compositionally matched to northern Pacific Arc sources including Japan, Kamchatka, Cascades and Alaska. Only two cryptotephra deposits are correlated to known high-magnitude eruptions (Towada-H, Japan, ca 15 ka BP and Mount St Helens Set M, ca 28 ka BP). For the remaining 10 deposits, there is no evidence of age- and compositionally-equivalent eruptive events in regional volcanic stratigraphies. This highlights the inherent problem of under-reporting eruptions and the dangers of underestimating the long-term risk of widespread ash dispersal for trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic flight routes.

Atmospheric Processing of Volcanic Glass: Effects on Iron Solubility and Redox Speciation

Volcanic ash from explosive eruptions can provide iron (Fe) to oceanic regions where this micronutrient limits primary production. Controls on the soluble Fe fraction in ash remain poorly understood but Fe solubility is likely influenced during atmospheric transport by condensation-evaporation cycles which induce large pH fluctuations. Using glass powder as surrogate for ash, we experimentally simulate its atmospheric processing via cycles of pH 2 and 5 exposure. Glass fractional Fe solubility (maximum 0.4%) is governed by the pH 2 exposure duration rather than by the pH fluctuations, however; pH 5 exposure induces precipitation of Fe-bearing nanoparticles which (re)dissolve at pH 2. Glass leaching/dissolution release Fe(II) and Fe(III) which are differentially affected by changes in pH; the average dissolved Fe(II)/Fetot ratio is ∼0.09 at pH 2 versus ∼0.18 at pH 5. Iron release at pH 2 from glass with a relatively high bulk Fe(II)/Fetot ratio (0.5), limited aqueous Fe(II) oxidation at pH 5, and possibly glass-mediated aqueous Fe(III) reduction may render atmospherically processed ash a significant source of Fe(II) for phytoplankton. By providing new insight into the form(s) of Fe associated with ash as wet aerosol versus cloud droplet, we improve knowledge of atmospheric controls on volcanogenic Fe delivery to the ocean.

Was millennial scale climate change during the Last Glacial triggered by explosive volcanism?

The mechanisms responsible for millennial scale climate change within glacial time intervals are equivocal. Here we show that all eight known radiometrically-dated Tambora-sized or larger NH eruptions over the interval 30 to 80 ka BP are associated with abrupt Greenland cooling (>95% confidence). Additionally, previous research reported a strong statistical correlation between the timing of Southern Hemisphere volcanism and Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events (>99% confidence), but did not identify a causative mechanism. Volcanic aerosol-induced asymmetrical hemispheric cooling over the last few hundred years restructured atmospheric circulation in a similar fashion as that associated with Last Glacial millennial-scale shifts (albeit on a smaller scale). We hypothesise that following both recent and Last Glacial NH eruptions, volcanogenic sulphate injections into the stratosphere cooled the NH preferentially, inducing a hemispheric temperature asymmetry that shifted atmospheric circulation cells southward. This resulted in Greenland cooling, Antarctic warming, and a southward shifted ITCZ. However, during the Last Glacial, the initial eruption-induced climate response was prolonged by NH glacier and sea ice expansion, increased NH albedo, AMOC weakening, more NH cooling, and a consequent positive feedback. Conversely, preferential SH cooling following large SH eruptions shifted atmospheric circulation to the north, resulting in the characteristic features of DO events.

Volcanic Ash versus Mineral Dust: Atmospheric Processing and Environmental and Climate Impacts

This review paper contrasts volcanic ash and mineral dust regarding their chemical and physical properties, sources, atmospheric load, deposition processes, atmospheric processing, and environmental and climate effects. Although there are substantial differences in the history of mineral dust and volcanic ash particles before they are released into the atmosphere, a number of similarities exist in atmospheric processing at ambient temperatures and environmental and climate impacts. By providing an overview on the differences and similarities between volcanic ash and mineral dust processes and effects, this review paper aims to appeal for future joint research strategies to extend our current knowledge through close cooperation between mineral dust and volcanic ash researchers.

Bronze Age volcanic event recorded in stalagmites by combined isotope and trace element studies

Stable isotope analyses of speleothems (carbonate deposits formed in caves) have been widely used to reconstruct paleoenvironmental conditions. Recent improvements in geochemical techniques have enabled us to analyze climate-influenced deposits at high temporal resolution so that hitherto unrecognized environmental conditions may be identified. Stable H, C and O isotope analyses on carbonate and inclusion water have been combined with multicollector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (MC-ICP-MS) age dating and laser-ablation ICP-MS trace element analyses on a stalagmite from southern Hungary. The study reveals significant changes in chemical and isotopic compositions of the speleothem between approx. 3800 and 3500 years BP ('Before Present') indicating coupled changes in the temperature and precipitation regime under which the speleothem formed. Stable isotopic and trace element correlations within this time period correlate with similar studies of stalagmites of comparable age from the Alpine-Mediterranean region. Our studies suggest that traces of deposition of volcanic dust, possibly related to the Thera eruption of Santorini (Greece) ca. 1650 BC (approximately 3650 BP), and environmental changes can be detected at a distance of several thousand kilometers.

Microbial origin of excess methane in glacial ice and implications for life on Mars

Methane trapped in the 3,053-m-deep Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice core provides an important record of millennial-scale climate change over the last 110,000 yr. However, at several depths in the lowest 90 m of the ice core, the methane concentration is up to an order of magnitude higher than at other depths. At those depths we have discovered methanogenic archaea, the in situ metabolism of which accounts for the excess methane. The total concentration of all types of microbes we measured with direct counts of Syto-23-stained cells tracks the excess of methanogens that we identified by their F420 autofluorescence and provides independent evidence for anomalous layers. The metabolic rate we estimated for microbes at those depths is consistent with the Arrhenius relation for rates found earlier for microbes imprisoned in rock, sediment, and ice. It is roughly the same as the rate of spontaneous macromolecular damage inferred from laboratory data, suggesting that microbes imprisoned in ice expend metabolic energy mainly to repair damage to DNA and amino acids rather than to grow. Equating the loss rate of methane recently discovered in the Martian atmosphere to the production rate by possible methanogens, we estimate that a possible Martian habitat would be at a temperature of approximately 0 degrees C and that the concentration, if uniformly distributed in a 10-m-thick layer, would be approximately 1 cell per ml.