Model for macroevolutionary dynamics

Consilience of methods for phylogenetic analysis of variance

Simulation-based and permutation-based inferential methods are commonplace in phylogenetic comparative methods, especially as evolutionary data have become more complex and parametric methods more limited for their analysis. Both approaches simulate many random outcomes from a null model to empirically generate sampling distributions of statistics. Although simulation-based and permutation-based methods seem commensurate in purpose, results from analysis of variance (ANOVA) based on the distributions of random F-statistics produced by these methods can be quite different in practice. Differences could be from either the null-model process that generates variation across many simulations or random permutations of the data, or different estimation methods for linear model coefficients and statistics. Unfortunately, because the null-model process and coefficient estimation are intrinsically linked in phylogenetic ANOVA methods, the precise reason for methodological differences has not been fully considered. Here we show that the null-model processes of phylogenetic simulation and randomizing residuals in a permutation procedure are indeed commensurate, and that both also produce results consistent with parametric ANOVA, for cases where parametric ANOVA is possible. We also provide results that caution against using ordinary least-squares estimation along with phylogenetic simulation; a typical phylogenetic ANOVA implementation.

The Relationship between Genus/Species Richness and Morphological Diversity among Subfamilies of Jewel Beetles

Simple Summary

Morphological diversity and species richness provide insights into biodiversity and have been studied extensively in recent years. Most researchers have found a positive correlation between these factors in many groups at the local community scale; however, this documented relationship has not always been consistent because of diverse niches and the status of an organism in a given ecosystem. Here we propose a new paradigm for the analysis of higher taxa biodiversity based on a cosmopolitan dataset to further investigate this contradiction. The morphological diversity of 1106 buprestid species from around the world was quantified based on the contours of the pronotum and elytron in dorsal view using a geometric morphometric approach. We found a positive correlation between morphological diversity and genus richness while no significance was found in the species-level test. Furthermore, the correlation between morphological diversity and genus richness is higher than it is in the species-level test. Our results demonstrate the superiority of higher taxa in biodiversity, and that the geometric morphometric approach could quite accurately reveal diversity patterns of the family Buprestidae. These conclusions complement the crucial aspect in several disciplines, including biodiversity, phylogeny and evolutionary strategy.

Abstract

A positive correlation between the species richness and morphological diversity of some organisms has been found in almost all studies at the local community scale. However, this documented relationship has not always been consistent because of diverse niches and the status of an organism in an ecosystem. Global taxon sampling, new morphological approaches, and consideration of more taxonomic categories other than species level are possible methods to further investigate this contradiction. In this study, we proposed a new paradigm for higher taxa biodiversity analysis based on a cosmopolitan dataset. A total of 1106 species from around the world representing all subfamilies and 33% genera of Buprestidae (jewel beetles) were selected to test the correlation between morphological diversity (MD) and genus/species richness (GR/SR) among subfamilies. The MD was quantified by the contours of the pronotum and elytron in dorsal view based on a geometric morphometric approach. The positive correlation between MD and GR was found in all test combinations, but was irrelevant in the species-level test. Interestingly, the correlation between MD and GR was higher than MD and SR in both pronotum and elytron measurements. Additionally, the MD of the pronotum is obviously higher than the MD of the elytron. Our results demonstrate that the geometric morphometric approach could quite accurately reveal diversity patterns of the family Buprestidae. Future studies on different groups, using more characters, more analyses and detailed biological interpretations, are required to fully understand the relationship between MD and SR.

Species Delimitation, Phylogenetic Relationships, and Temporal Divergence Model in the Genus Aeromonas

The definition of species boundaries constitutes an important challenge in biodiversity studies. In this work we applied the Generalized Mixed Yule Coalescent (GMYC) method, which determines a divergence threshold to delimit species in a phylogenetic tree. Based on the tree branching pattern, the analysis fixes the transition threshold between speciation and the coalescent process associated with the intra-species diversification. This approach has been widely used to delineate eukaryote species and establish their diversification process from sequence data. Nevertheless, there are few examples in which this analysis has been applied to a bacterial population. Although the GMYC method was originally designed to assume a constant (Yule) model of diversification at between-species level, it was later evaluated simulating other conditions. Our aim was therefore to determine the species delineation in Aeromonas using the GMYC method and asses which model best explains the speciation process in this bacterial genus. The application of the GMYC method allowed us to clearly delineate the Aeromonas species boundaries, even in the controversial groups, such as the A. veronii or A. media species complexes.

Uncovering Higher-Taxon Diversification Dynamics from Clade Age and Species-Richness Data

The relationship between clade age and species richness has been increasingly used in macroevolutionary studies as evidence for ecologically versus time-dependent diversification processes. However, theory suggests that phylogenetic structure, age type (crown or stem age), and taxonomic delimitation can affect estimates of the age-richness correlation (ARC) considerably. We currently lack an integrative understanding of how these different factors affect ARCs, which in turn, obscures further interpretations. To assess its informative breadth, we characterize ARC behavior with simulated and empirical phylogenies, considering phylogenetic structure and both crown and stem ages. First, we develop a two-state birth-death model to simulate phylogenies including the origin of higher taxa and a hierarchical taxonomy to determine ARC expectations under ecologically and time-dependent diversification processes. Then, we estimate ARCs across various taxonomic ranks of extant amphibians, squamate reptiles, mammals, birds, and flowering plants. We find that our model reproduces the general ARC trends of a wide range of biological systems despite the particularities of taxonomic practice within each, suggesting that the model is adequate to establish a framework of ARC null expectations for different diversification processes when taxa are defined with a hierarchical taxonomy. ARCs estimated with crown ages were positive in all the scenarios we studied, including ecologically dependent processes. Negative ARCs were only found at less inclusive taxonomic ranks, when considering stem age, and when rates varied among clades. This was the case both in ecologically and time-dependent processes. Together, our results warn against direct interpretations of single ARC estimates and advocate for a more integrative use of ARCs across age types and taxonomic ranks in diversification studies. [Birth-Death models; crown age; diversity dependence; extinction; phylogenetic structure; speciation; stem age; taxonomy; time dependence; tree simulations.].

Mosaic evolution and the pattern of transitions in the hominin lineage

Humans are uniquely unique, in terms of the extreme differences between them and other living organisms, and the impact they are having on the biosphere. The evolution of humans can be seen, as has been proposed, as one of the major transitions in evolution, on a par with the origins of multicellular organisms or the eukaryotic cell (Maynard Smith & Szathmáry 1997 Major transitions in evolution). Major transitions require the evolution of greater complexity and the emergence of new evolutionary levels or processes. Does human evolution meet these conditions? I explore the diversity of evidence on the nature of transitions in human evolution. Four levels of transition are proposed-baseline, novel taxa, novel adaptive zones and major transitions-and the pattern of human evolution considered in the light of these. The primary conclusions are that changes in human evolution occur continuously and cumulatively; that novel taxa and the appearance of new adaptations are not clustered very tightly in particular periods, although there are three broad transitional phases (Pliocene, Plio-Pleistocene and later Quaternary). Each phase is distinctive, with the first based on ranging and energetics, the second on technology and niche expansion, and the third on cognition and cultural processes. I discuss whether this constitutes a 'major transition' in the context of the evolutionary processes more broadly; the role of behaviour in evolution; and the opportunity provided by the rich genetic, phenotypic (fossil morphology) and behavioural (archaeological) record to examine in detail major transitions and the microevolutionary patterns underlying macroevolutionary change. It is suggested that the evolution of the hominin lineage is consistent with a mosaic pattern of change.This article is part of the themed issue 'Major transitions in human evolution'.

Approaches to Macroevolution: 1. General Concepts and Origin of Variation

Approaches to macroevolution require integration of its two fundamental components, i.e. the origin and the sorting of variation, in a hierarchical framework. Macroevolution occurs in multiple currencies that are only loosely correlated, notably taxonomic diversity, morphological disparity, and functional variety. The origin of variation within this conceptual framework is increasingly understood in developmental terms, with the semi-hierarchical structure of gene regulatory networks (GRNs, used here in a broad sense incorporating not just the genetic circuitry per se but the factors controlling the timing and location of gene expression and repression), the non-linear relation between magnitude of genetic change and the phenotypic results, the evolutionary potential of co-opting existing GRNs, and developmental responsiveness to nongenetic signals (i.e. epigenetics and plasticity), all requiring modification of standard microevolutionary models, and rendering difficult any simple definition of evolutionary novelty. The developmental factors underlying macroevolution create anisotropic probabilities-i.e., an uneven density distribution-of evolutionary change around any given phenotypic starting point, and the potential for coordinated changes among traits that can accommodate change via epigenetic mechanisms. From this standpoint, "punctuated equilibrium" and "phyletic gradualism" simply represent two cells in a matrix of evolutionary models of phenotypic change, and the origin of trends and evolutionary novelty are not simply functions of ecological opportunity. Over long timescales, contingency becomes especially important, and can be viewed in terms of macroevolutionary lags (the temporal separation between the origin of a trait or clade and subsequent diversification); such lags can arise by several mechanisms: as geological or phylogenetic artifacts, or when diversifications require synergistic interactions among traits, or between traits and external events. The temporal and spatial patterns of the origins of evolutionary novelties are a challenge to macroevolutionary theory; individual events can be described retrospectively, but a general model relating development, genetics, and ecology is needed. An accompanying paper (Jablonski in Evol Biol 2017) reviews diversity dynamics and the sorting of variation, with some general conclusions.

Punctuated equilibrium as an emergent process and its modified thermodynamic characterization

We address evolutionary dynamics and consider under which conditions the ecosystem interaction network allows punctuated equilibrium (i.e., alternation between hectic and quasi-stable phases). We focus on the links connecting various species and on the strength and sign of those links. For this study we consider the Tangled Nature model, which allows considerable flexibility and plasticity in the analysis of interspecies interactions. We find that it is necessary to have a proper balance of connectivity and interaction intensities so as to establish the kind of mutual cooperation and competition found in nature. It suggests evolutionary punctuated equilibrium as an emergent process, thus displaying features of complex systems. To explicitly demonstrate this fact we consider an extended form of thermodynamics, defining (for the present context) relevant out-of-equilibrium "collective" functions. We then show how to characterize the punctuated equilibrium through entropy-like and free energy-like quantities. Finally, from a close analogy to thermodynamic systems, we propose a protocol similar to simulated annealing. It is based on controlling the species' rate of mutation during the hectic periods, in this way enhancing the exploration of the genome space (similar to the known behavior of bacteria in stressful environments). This allows the system to more rapidly converge to long-duration quasi-stable phases.

Species-abundance distributions under colored environmental noise

Natural communities at all spatiotemporal scales are subjected to a wide variety of environmental pressures, resulting in random changes in the demographic rates of species populations. Previous analyses have examined the effects of such environmental variance on the long-term growth rate and time to extinction of single populations, but studies of its effects on the diversity of communities remain scarce. In this study, we construct a new master-equation model incorporating demographic and environmental variance and use it to examine how statistical patterns of diversity, as encapsulated by species-abundance distributions (SADs), are altered by environmental variance. Unlike previous diffusion models with environmental variance uncorrelated in time (white noise), our model allows environmental variance to be correlated at different timescales (colored noise), thus facilitating representation of phenomena such as yearly and decadal changes in climate. We derive an exact analytical expression for SADs predicted by our model together with a close approximation, and use them to show that the main effect of adding environmental variance is to increase the proportion of abundant species, thus flattening the SAD relative to the log-series form found in the neutral case. This flattening effect becomes more prominent when environmental variance is more correlated in time and has greater effects on species' demographic rates, holding all other factors constant. Furthermore, we show how our model SADs are consistent with those from diffusion models near the white noise limit. The mathematical techniques we develop are catalysts for further theoretical work exploring the consequences of environmental variance for biodiversity.

The challenges to inferring the regulators of biodiversity in deep time

Attempts to infer the ecological drivers of macroevolution in deep time have long drawn inspiration from work on extant systems, but long-term evolutionary and geological changes complicate the simple extrapolation of such theory. Recent efforts to incorporate a more informed ecology into macroevolution have moved beyond the descriptive, seeking to isolate generating mechanisms and produce testable hypotheses of how groups of organisms usurp each other or coexist over vast timespans. This theme issue aims to exemplify this progress, providing a series of case studies of how novel modelling approaches are helping infer the regulators of biodiversity in deep time. In this Introduction, we explore the challenges of these new approaches. First, we discuss how our choices of taxonomic units have implications for the conclusions drawn. Second, we emphasize the need to embrace the interdependence of biotic and abiotic changes, because no living organism ignores its environment. Third, in the light of parts 1 and 2, we discuss the set of dynamic signatures that we might expect to observe in the fossil record. Finally, we ask whether these dynamics represent the most ecologically informative foci for research efforts aimed at inferring the regulators of biodiversity in deep time. The papers in this theme issue contribute in each of these areas.

Age-abundance relationships for neutral communities

Neutral models for the dynamics of a system of competing species are often used to describe a wide variety of empirical communities. These models are used in many situations, ranging from population genetics and ecological biodiversity to macroevolution and cancer tumors. One of the main issues discussed within this framework is the relationships between the abundance of a species and its age. Here we provide a comprehensive analysis of the age-abundance relationships for fixed-size and growing communities. Explicit formulas for the average and the most likely age of a species with abundance n are given, together with the full probability distribution function. We further discuss the universality of these results and their applicability to the tropical forest community.

On age and species richness of higher taxa

Many studies have tried to identify factors that explain differences in numbers of species between clades against the background assumption that older clades contain more species because they have had more time for diversity to accumulate. The finding in several recent studies that species richness of clades is decoupled from stem age has been interpreted as evidence for ecological limits to species richness. Here we demonstrate that the absence of a positive age-diversity relationship, or even a negative relationship, may also occur when taxa are defined based on time or some correlate of time such as genetic distance or perhaps morphological distinctness. Thus, inferring underlying processes from distributions of species across higher taxa requires caution concerning the way in which higher taxa are defined. When this definition is unclear, crown age is superior to stem age as a measure of clade age.

Neutral-like abundance distributions in the presence of selection in a continuous fitness landscape

The neutral theory of biodiversity has successfully explained the observed composition of many ecological communities but it relies on strict demographic equivalence among species and provides no room for evolutionary processes such as selection and adaptation. Here we show how to embed the neutral theory within the Darwinian framework. In a continuous fitness landscape with a quadratic maximum, typical for quantitative traits, selection does restrict the extant species to have trait values close to optimal, but due to the continuous nature of the landscape, there are always many such species available, and so competition among them is effectively neutral. For sufficiently small mutational steps, the community structure fits perfectly to the Fisher log-series species abundance distribution. In general, the selection-mutation process, when superimposed on demographic and environmental noise, yields a small set of characteristic patterns for species abundance curves. A survey of these patterns is given.