Climate-driven ground-level ozone extreme in the fall over the Southeast United States

Assessment of ground-level ozone pollution in Türkiye according to new WHO limits

Ground-level ozone is a secondary pollutant and is attributable to respiratory diseases and mortality. For this reason, the World Health Organization (WHO) implemented a new long-term (peak season) limit value for ozone. The previous studies related to ozone in Türkiye were spatially limited to certain locations. In this study, annual mean and peak season ozone concentrations, and limit exceedances were investigated for Türkiye for the year 2021. Moreover, ozone peak seasons were determined for the first time for 126 air quality monitoring stations. The annual mean ozone concentration was determined as 44.3 ± 19.3 µg/m3 whereas the peak season average ozone level was 68.4 ± 27.2 µg/m3. April-September period was the most frequently observed ozone peak season. Among all stations, Erzurum Palandöken was by far the most polluted station in terms of annual mean and limit exceedances of ozone. Ankara Siteler stations have the highest rank in peak season mean. 87 and 83 stations exceeded the short-term and long-term recommendations of WHO, respectively. Four hotspot regions were revealed in terms of peak season exceedance: Adana and surrounding provinces, the surroundings of Burdur and Isparta provinces, and the northeastern and northwestern parts of Türkiye. To protect public health, WHO recommendations for 8-h and peak season limits should be immediately implemented in Turkish regulations.

Co-occurrence of ozone and PM2.5 pollution in urban/non-urban areas in eastern China from 2013 to 2020: Roles of meteorology and anthropogenic emissions

We applied a three-dimensional (3-D) global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to evaluate the influences of meteorology and anthropogenic emissions on the co-occurrence of ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution day (O3-PM2.5PD) in urban and non-urban areas of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) and Yangtze River Delta (YRD) regions during the warm season (April-October) from 2013 to 2020. The model captured the observed O3-PM2.5PD trends and spatial distributions well. From 2013 to 2020, with changes in both anthropogenic emissions and meteorology, the simulated values of O3-PM2.5PD in the urban (non-urban) areas of the BTH and YRD regions were 424.8 (330.1) and 309.3 (286.9) days, respectively, suggesting that pollution in non-urban areas also warrants attention. The trends in the simulated values of O3-PM2.5PD were -0.14 and -0.15 (+1.18 and +0.81) days yr-1 in the BTH (YRD) urban and non-urban areas, respectively. Sensitivity simulations revealed that changes in anthropogenic emissions decreased the occurrence of O3-PM2.5PD, with trends of -0.99 and -1.23 (-1.47 and -1.92) days yr-1 in the BTH (YRD) urban and non-urban areas, respectively. Conversely, meteorological conditions could exacerbate the frequency of O3-PM2.5PD, especially in the urban YRD areas, but less notably in the urban BTH areas, with trends of +2.11 and +0.30 days yr-1, respectively, owing to changes in meteorology only. The increases in T2m_max and T2m were the main meteorological factors affecting O3-PM2.5PD in most BTH and YRD areas. Furthermore, by conducting sensitivity experiments with different levels of pollutant precursor reductions in 2020, we found that volatile organic compound (VOC) reductions primarily benefited O3-PM2.5PD decreases in urban areas and that NOx reductions more notably influenced those in non-urban areas, especially in the YRD region. Simultaneously, reducing VOC and NOx emissions by 50 % resulted in considerable O3-PM2.5PD decreases (58.8-72.6 %) in the urban and non-urban areas of the BTH and YRD regions. The results of this study have important implications for the control of O3-PM2.5PD in the urban and non-urban areas of the BTH and YRD regions.

A toxicological perspective on climate change and the exposome

Climate change is accompanied by changes in the exposome, including increased heat, ground-level ozone, and other air pollutants, infectious agents, pollens, and psychosocial stress. These exposures alter the internal component of the exposome and account for some of the health effects of climate change. The adverse outcome pathways describe biological events leading to an unfavorable health outcome. In this perspective study, I propose to use this toxicological framework to better describe the biological steps linking a stressor associated with climate change to an adverse outcome. Such a framework also allows for better identification of possible interactions between stressors related to climate change and others, such as chemical pollution. More generally, I call for the incorporation of climate change as part of the exposome and for improved identification of the biological pathways involved in its health effects.

Dominant physical and chemical processes impacting nitrate in Shandong of the North China Plain during winter haze events

Nitrate has been a dominant component of PM2.5 since the stringent emission control measures implemented in China in 2013. Clarifying key physical and chemical processes influencing nitrate concentrations is crucial for eradicating heavy air pollution in China. In this study, we explored dominant processes impacting nitrate concentrations in Shandong of the North China Plain during three haze events from 9 to 25 December 2021, named cases P1 (94.46 (30.85) μg m-3 for PM2.5 (nitrate)), P2 (148.95 (50.12) μg m-3) and P3 (88.03 (29.21) μg m-3), by using the Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry model with an integrated process rate analysis scheme and updated heterogeneous hydrolysis of dinitrogen pentoxide on the wet aerosol surface (HET-N2O5) and additional nitrous acid (HONO) sources (AS-HONO). The results showed that nitrate increases in the three cases were attributed to aerosol chemistry, whereas nitrate decreases were due mainly to the vertical mixing process in cases P1 and P2 and to the advection process in case P3. HET-N2O5 (the reaction of OH + NO2) contributed 45 % (51 %) of the HNO3 production rate during the study period. AS-HONO produced a nitrate enhancement of 24 % in case P1, 12 % in case P2 and 19 % in case P3, and a HNO3 production rate enhancement of 0.79- 0.97 (0.18- 0.60) μg m-3 h-1 through the reaction of OH + NO2 (HET-N2O5) in the three cases. This study implies that using suitable parameterization schemes for heterogeneous reactions on aerosol and ground surfaces and nitrate photolysis is vital in simulations of HONO and nitrate, and the MOSAIC module for aerosol water simulations needs to be improved.

Chemical drivers of ozone change in extreme temperatures in eastern China

Surface ozone pollution has become the biggest issue in China's air pollution since particulate matters have been improved in the atmosphere. Compared with normal winter/summer, extremely cold/hot weather sustained several days and nights by unfavorable meteorology is more impactful in this regard. However, ozone changes in extreme temperatures and their driving processes remain rarely understood. Here, we combine comprehensive observational data analysis and 0-D box models to quantify the contributions of different chemical processes and precursors to ozone change in these unique environments. Analyses of radical cycling indicate that temperature accelerates OH-HO₂-RO₂, optimizing ozone production efficiency in higher temperatures. The HO₂ + NO → OH + NO₂ reaction was the most influenced by temperature change, followed by OH + VOCs → HO₂/RO₂. Although most reactions in ozone formation increased with temperature, the increase in ozone production rates was greater than the rate of ozone loss, leading to a fast net ozone accumulation in heat waves. Our results also show that the ozone sensitivity regime is VOC-limited in extreme temperatures, highlighting the significance of volatile organic compound (VOC) control (particularly the control of alkenes and aromatics). In the context of global warming and climate change, this study helps us deeply understand ozone formation in extreme environments and design abatement policies for ozone pollution in such conditions.

Impact of Climate-Driven Land-Use Change on O3 and PM Pollution by Driving BVOC Emissions in China in 2050

This study predicted three future land-use type scenarios in 2050 (including the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP126, SSP585, and carbon scenario) based on the Land-Use Harmonization (LUH2) project and the future evolution of land-use types considering China’s carbon neutrality background. The contribution of land-use changes to terrestrial natural source biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), as well as O3 and PM concentrations, were determined. Under the SSP126 pathway, meteorological changes would increase BVOC emissions in China by 1.0 TgC in 2050, compared with 2015, while land-use changes would increase them by 1.5–7.1 TgC. The impact of land-use changes on O3 and PM concentrations would be less than 3.6% in 2050 and greater in summer. Regional differences must be considered when calculating future environmental background concentrations of pollutants. Due to more afforestation measures under the SSP126 scenario, the impact of land-use change on pollutants was more obvious under the SSP126 pathway than under the SSP585 pathway. Under the carbon scenario, the increase in PM concentration caused by land-use changes would pose a risk to air quality compliance; thus, it is necessary to consider reducing or offsetting this potential risk through anthropogenic emission control measures.

Synergistic effects of biogenic volatile organic compounds and soil nitric oxide emissions on summertime ozone formation in China

Natural emissions play a key role in modulating the formation of ground-level ozone (O₃), especially emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and soil nitric oxide (SNO), and their individual effects on O₃ formation have been previously quantified and evaluated. However, their synergistic effects remain unclear and have not yet been well assessed. By applying the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Chemistry-Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (WRF/Chem-MEGAN) model, this study reveals that in the presence of sufficient BVOC emissions, which act as a fuel, SNO emissions act as a fuel additive and promote the chemical reactions of BVOCs and the subsequent production of O₃. Consequently, the synergistic effects of BVOC and SNO emissions on summertime O₃ production surpassed the sum of their individual effects by as much as 10-20 μg m^-3 in eastern China in 2014. In order to reduce O₃ concentration to a level corresponding to no natural emissions of BVOC or SNO (i.e., the BASE scenario), the anthropogenic volatile organic compound (AVOC) emissions in the scenario considers BVOC and SNO emissions must be reduced by 1.76 times that of the BASE scenario. This study demonstrates that the synergistic effects of BVOC and SNO emissions can impede ground-level O₃ regulation and can subsequently impose stricter requirements on anthropogenic precursor emission control in China. The results of this study can also inform efforts in other regions that are still combating ground-level O₃ pollution.

Revealing the driving effect of emissions and meteorology on PM2.5 and O3 trends through a new algorithmic model

Quantifying the driving effect of each factor on atmospheric secondary pollutants is crucial for pollution prevention. We aim to establish a simple and accessible method to identify ozone (O₃) and particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentration trends induced by emissions and meteorology. The method comprises five main steps, which involve matrix construction and mutual calculations, and the whole process is demonstrated and verified by employing long-term monitoring data. With regard to the case study, O₃ and PM_2.5 concentration variance between the target and base year are respectively -4.74 and 0.20 μg/m³ under same meteorological conditions, among which the contribution of the emissions driver and meteorological driver are respectively -5.81 and 1.07 μg/m³ for O₃ and respectively 0.55 and -0.35 μg/m³ for PM_2.5. Additionally, 84.45% of O₃ variance is attributable to the emissions driver in terms of relative importance, which is 52.88% for PM_2.5. The meteorological driver is further separated into atmospheric secondary reaction and regional transport. The results reveal that ongoing prevention policy for O₃ is effective; however, it needs to be further optimized for PM_2.5.

Ground-level ozone simulation using ensemble WRF/Chem predictions over the Southeast United States

Being detrimental to human health and vegetation growth, ground-level ozone (O₃) is becoming a huge concern as an air pollutant. The processes of formation, diffusion, transformation, and transport of O₃ in the atmosphere are highly affected by meteorological conditions such as solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, and wind. Chemical transport models (CTMs) are widely used in simulating O₃ pollution with two main inputs of the meteorological condition and emission inventory. Meteorological inputs play a crucial role in the model simulation accuracy especially in areas where emission has been well constrained such as the United States (U.S.). However, most O₃ simulations today still use only one set of meteorological input, which leaves room for model performance improvement by using ensemble meteorological conditions. In this study, O₃ over the Southeast U.S. was simulated for one week in the summer of each year from 2016 to 2018 by using ensemble meteorological inputs offered by Short Range Ensemble Forecast products. The predictions were conducted through the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry. The calculated ensemble prediction results got at least 66.7% improvement in agreement with O₃ observations compared with single runs in the three selected cities (Miami, Atlanta, and Baton Rouge) from 2016 to 2018. This study emphasized the accuracy and provided a new idea of using ensemble meteorological inputs to improve O₃ prediction than using traditional single meteorology by CTMs.

A comparative study of two-way and offline coupled WRF v3.4 and CMAQ v5.0.2 over the contiguous US: performance evaluation and impacts of chemistry-meteorology feedbacks on air quality

The two-way coupled Weather Research and Forecasting and Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model has been developed to more realistically represent the atmosphere by accounting for complex chemistry-meteorology feedbacks. In this study, we present a comparative analysis of two-way (with consideration of both aerosol direct and indirect effects) and offline coupled WRF v3.4 and CMAQ v5.0.2 over the contiguous US. Long-term (5 years from 2008 to 2012) simulations using WRF-CMAQ with both offline and two-way coupling modes are carried out with anthropogenic emissions based on multiple years of the U.S. National Emission Inventory and chemical initial and boundary conditions derived from an advanced Earth system model (i.e., a modified version of the Community Earth System Model/Community Atmospheric Model). The comprehensive model evaluations show that both two-way WRF-CMAQ and WRF-only simulations perform well for major meteorological variables such as temperature at 2 m, relative humidity at 2 m, wind speed at 10 m, precipitation (except for against the National Climatic Data Center data), and shortwave and longwave radiation. Both two-way and offline CMAQ also show good performance for ozone (O₃) and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). Due to the consideration of aerosol direct and indirect effects, two-way WRF-CMAQ shows improved performance over offline coupled WRF and CMAQ in terms of spatiotemporal distributions and statistics, especially for radiation, cloud forcing, O₃, sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, elemental carbon, tropospheric O₃ residual, and column nitrogen dioxide (NO₂). For example, the mean biases have been reduced by more than 10 W m^-2 for shortwave radiation and cloud radiative forcing and by more than 2 ppb for max 8 h O₃. However, relatively large biases still exist for cloud predictions, some PM_2.5 species, and PM₁₀ that warrant follow-up studies to better understand those issues. The impacts of chemistry-meteorological feedbacks are found to play important roles in affecting regional air quality in the US by reducing domain-average concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), O₃, nitrogen oxide (NO _x ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and PM_2.5 by 3.1% (up to 27.8%), 4.2% (up to 16.2%), 6.6% (up to 50.9%), 5.8% (up to 46.6%), and 8.6% (up to 49.1%), respectively, mainly due to reduced radiation, temperature, and wind speed. The overall performance of the two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ model achieved in this work is generally good or satisfactory and the improved performance for two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ should be considered along with other factors in developing future model applications to inform policy making.

A comparative study of two-way and offline coupled WRF v3.4 and CMAQ v5.0.2 over the contiguous US: performance evaluation and impacts of chemistry-meteorology feedbacks on air quality

The two-way coupled Weather Research and Forecasting and Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model has been developed to more realistically represent the atmosphere by accounting for complex chemistry-meteorology feedbacks. In this study, we present a comparative analysis of two-way (with consideration of both aerosol direct and indirect effects) and offline coupled WRF v3.4 and CMAQ v5.0.2 over the contiguous US. Long-term (5 years from 2008 to 2012) simulations using WRF-CMAQ with both offline and two-way coupling modes are carried out with anthropogenic emissions based on multiple years of the U.S. National Emission Inventory and chemical initial and boundary conditions derived from an advanced Earth system model (i.e., a modified version of the Community Earth System Model/Community Atmospheric Model). The comprehensive model evaluations show that both two-way WRF-CMAQ and WRF-only simulations perform well for major meteorological variables such as temperature at 2 m, relative humidity at 2 m, wind speed at 10 m, precipitation (except for against the National Climatic Data Center data), and shortwave and longwave radiation. Both two-way and offline CMAQ also show good performance for ozone (O₃) and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). Due to the consideration of aerosol direct and indirect effects, two-way WRF-CMAQ shows improved performance over offline coupled WRF and CMAQ in terms of spatiotemporal distributions and statistics, especially for radiation, cloud forcing, O₃, sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, elemental carbon, tropospheric O₃ residual, and column nitrogen dioxide (NO₂). For example, the mean biases have been reduced by more than 10 W m^-2 for shortwave radiation and cloud radiative forcing and by more than 2 ppb for max 8 h O₃. However, relatively large biases still exist for cloud predictions, some PM_2.5 species, and PM₁₀ that warrant follow-up studies to better understand those issues. The impacts of chemistry-meteorological feedbacks are found to play important roles in affecting regional air quality in the US by reducing domain-average concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), O₃, nitrogen oxide (NO _x ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and PM_2.5 by 3.1% (up to 27.8%), 4.2% (up to 16.2%), 6.6% (up to 50.9%), 5.8% (up to 46.6%), and 8.6% (up to 49.1%), respectively, mainly due to reduced radiation, temperature, and wind speed. The overall performance of the two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ model achieved in this work is generally good or satisfactory and the improved performance for two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ should be considered along with other factors in developing future model applications to inform policy making.

Summertime Clean-Background Ozone Concentrations Derived from Ozone Precursor Relationships are Lower than Previous Estimates in the Southeast United States

Background ozone in this study is defined as the amount of ozone that is not affected by the emissions of ozone precursors in the region of study and is transported from the distant troposphere or the stratosphere. It is one of the factors that must be considered in regional ozone control strategies. Different methods have been applied to define the background ozone level. We develop a new method based on the O₃-CO-HCHO relationships, which can be applied to both observation and modeling data for regions with high isoprene emission ozone, such as the Southeast United States. We make use of the extensive aircraft and surface observations in the Southeast in the summer of 2013. Compared to the diagnostic results using the relationship of O₃-NO_z (total reactive nitrogen excluding nitrogen oxides), zero-emission (model-only), and 5^th percentile methods, the new method is most consistent using observation or model data and the resulting background ozone concentrations are 4-50% lower than the other methods for field campaigns. Using this method, we find that the summertime background ozone at the surface is in the range of 10-15 ppbv in the inland areas of the Southeast, which is lower than that reported in previous studies. This background ozone tends to increase from urban centers to rural regions and from the surface to higher altitude due to changing ozone lifetime driven by anthropogenic emissions and dry deposition to the surface. The better quantification of background ozone using the new method highlights the importance of the contributions by natural emissions to ozone and the necessity to control anthropogenic emissions in ozone nonattainment areas of the Southeast.

Climate change in the human environment: Indicators and impacts from the Fourth National Climate Assessment

The Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) is the most comprehensive report to date assessing climate change science, impacts, risks, and adaptation in the United States. The 1,500 page report covers a breadth of topics, ranging from foundational physical science to climate change response options. Here we present information on indicators and impacts of climate change in the human environment featured in NCA4 Volume II, focusing on: air quality, forest disturbance and wildfire, energy systems, and water resources. Observations, trends, and impacts of these aspects of our changing climate will be discussed, along with implications for the future. Implications: People of the United States are already being affected by our changing climate. Information on observed changes and impacts that affect human welfare and society, along with projections for the future, is highly valuable for informing decision-makers, including utility managers, emergency planners, and other stakeholders, about climate risk assessment, adaptation, and mitigation options.

Comprehensive evaluations of diurnal NO2 measurements during DISCOVER-AQ 2011: effects of resolution-dependent representation of NO x emissions

Nitrogen oxides (NO _x =NO+NO₂) play a crucial role in the formation of ozone and secondary inorganic and organic aerosols, thus affecting human health, global radiation budget, and climate. The diurnal and spatial variations in NO₂ are functions of emissions, advection, deposition, vertical mixing, and chemistry. Their observations, therefore, provide useful constraints in our understanding of these factors. We employ a Regional chEmical and trAnsport model (REAM) to analyze the observed temporal (diurnal cycles) and spatial distributions of NO₂ concentrations and tropospheric vertical column densities (TVCDs) using aircraft in situ measurements and surface EPA Air Quality System (AQS) observations as well as the measurements of TVCDs by satellite instruments (OMI: the Ozone Monitoring Instrument; GOME-2A: Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment - 2A), ground-based Pandora, and the Airborne Compact Atmospheric Mapper (ACAM) instrument in July 2011 during the DISCOVER-AQ campaign over the Baltimore-Washington region. The model simulations at 36 and 4 km resolutions are in reasonably good agreement with the regional mean temporospatial NO₂ observations in the daytime. However, we find significant overestimations (underestimations) of model-simulated NO₂ (O₃) surface concentrations during night-time, which can be mitigated by enhancing nocturnal vertical mixing in the model. Another discrepancy is that Pandora-measured NO₂ TVCDs show much less variation in the late afternoon than simulated in the model. The higher-resolution 4 km simulations tend to show larger biases compared to the observations due largely to the larger spatial variations in NO _x emissions in the model when the model spatial resolution is increased from 36 to 4 km. OMI, GOME-2A, and the high-resolution aircraft ACAM observations show a more dispersed distribution of NO₂ vertical column densities (VCDs) and lower VCDs in urban regions than corresponding 36 and 4 km model simulations, likely reflecting the spatial distribution bias of NO _x emissions in the National Emissions Inventory (NEI) 2011.

Evaluating Drought Responses of Surface Ozone Precursor Proxies: Variations With Land Cover Type, Precipitation, and Temperature

Prior work suggests drought exacerbates US air quality by increasing surface ozone concentrations. We analyze 2005-2015 tropospheric column concentrations of two trace gases that serve as proxies for surface ozone precursors retrieved from the OMI/Aura satellite: Nitrogen dioxide (ΩNO_2; NO_x proxy) and formaldehyde (ΩHCHO; VOC proxy). We find 3.5% and 7.7% summer drought enhancements (classified by SPEI) for ΩNO₂ and ΩHCHO, respectively, corroborating signals previously extracted from ground-level observations. When we subset by land cover type, the strongest ΩHCHO drought enhancement (10%) occurs in the woody savannas of the Southeast US. By isolating the influences of precipitation and temperature, we infer that enhanced biogenic VOC emissions in this region increase ΩHCHO independently with both high temperature and low precipitation during drought. The strongest ΩNO₂ drought enhancement (6.0%) occurs over Midwest US croplands and grasslands, which we infer to reflect the sensitivity of soil NO_x emissions to temperature.

Revealing the modulation of boundary conditions and governing processes on ozone formation over northern China in June 2017

In this study, ozonesonde data were used to evaluate the impact of different boundary conditions on the vertical distribution of ozone over urban Beijing. The comparison shows that the clean and static boundary conditions, referred to as PROFILE, apparently underestimate the ozone concentration over the upper troposphere and stratosphere, whereas the global chemical transport model (CTM) provides much more reasonable performance. Further investigation reveals that the boundary conditions exert larger impacts over areas with high altitudes and close distances to boundaries, such as the Tibetan Plateau, while they yield weak impacts on regions relatively far from the boundary, such as the North China Plain (NCP). Process analysis was conducted to investigate the modulation of physical and chemical processes on ozone formation in June 2017, illustrating that during the daytime of the high-O₃ period, the photochemical reactions within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) almost become the only source favorable to ozone accumulation. Motivated by this phenomenon, we constructed a linear regression and found that the maximum daily 8-hr ozone (MDA8) ozone concentration was highly correlated with the surface ozone change rate and chemical reactions in the PBL during the pollution period, with MDA8 ozone exceeding 70 ppbv over NCP. Based on this relationship as well as the design of numerical experiments, we propose a strategy of dynamic emission control. Firstly, the emission reduction during the peak ozone formation period may weaken the fast chemical reactions in the PBL and subsequent surface ozone concentration. Secondly, emission reduction one or two days prior to an episode might achieve larger ozone reduction through the accumulation effect. Lastly, emission control outside of the NCP may surpass the local impact under favorable meteorological conditions. Therefore, the efficacy of dynamic emission control was striking when both the accumulation and transport effect were taken into consideration.

Persistent ozone pollution episodes in North China exacerbated by regional transport

Summertime ozone (O₃) concentrations over China continue to increase although the governmental Clear Air Actions have been carried out since 2013. The worst O₃ pollution is confronted over North China Plain. Ozone polluted days (with observed regionally-averaged maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) O₃ concentrations exceeding 80 ppbv) in May-July in North China increased from 35 days in year 2014 to 56 days in year 2018, and persistent O₃ pollution episodes that lasted for 5 days or longer (OPEs5) contributed 14.3% and 66.1% to those O₃ polluted days in 2014 and 2018, respectively. Model simulations suggest that O₃ transport from central eastern China (including Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu and Anhui Provinces) contributes 36% of the enhanced O₃ concentrations in North China during OPEs5 relative to the seasonal mean. We find that emission control of volatile organic compounds in central eastern China is most effective to alleviate intensity of OPEs5 in North China.

Analysis of wintertime O3 variability using a random forest model and high-frequency observations in Zhangjiakou-an area with background pollution level of the North China Plain

The short-term health effects of ozone (O₃) have highlighted the need for high-temporal-resolution O₃ observations to accurately assess human exposure to O₃. Here, we performed 20-s resolution observations of O₃ precursors and meteorological factors to train a random forest model capable of accurately predicting O₃ concentrations. Our model performed well with an average validated R² of 0.997. Unlike in typical linear model frameworks, variable dependencies are not clearly modelled by random forest model. Thus, we conducted additional studies to provide insight into the photochemical and atmospheric dynamic processes driving variations in O₃ concentrations. At nitrogen oxides (NO_x) concentrations of 10-20 ppb, all the other O₃ precursors were in states that increased the production of O₃. Over a short timescale, nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) can almost track each high-frequency variation in O₃. Meteorological factors play a more important role than O₃ precursors do in predicting O₃ concentrations at a high temporal resolution; however, individual meteorological factors are not sufficient to track every high-frequency change in O₃. Nevertheless, the sharp variations in O₃ related to flow dynamics are often accompanied by steep temperature changes. Our results suggest that high-temporal-resolution observations, both ground-based and vertical profiles, are necessary for the accurate assessment of human exposure to O₃ and the success and accountability of the emission control strategies for improving air quality.

Ozone Pollution: A Major Health Hazard Worldwide

Oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) released into the atmosphere can react in the presence of solar irradiation, leading to ozone formation in the troposphere. Historically, before clean air regulations were implemented to control NO_x and VOCs, ozone concentrations were high enough to exert acute effects such as eye and nose irritation, respiratory disease emergencies, and lung function impairment. At or above current regulatory standards, day-to-day variations in ozone concentrations have been positively associated with asthma incidence and daily non-accidental mortality rate. Emerging evidence has shown that both short-term and long-term exposures to ozone, at concentrations below the current regulatory standards, were associated with increased mortality due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. The pathophysiology to support the epidemiologic associations between mortality and morbidity and ozone centers at the chemical and toxicological property of ozone as a strong oxidant, being able to induce oxidative damages to cells and the lining fluids of the airways, and immune-inflammatory responses within and beyond the lung. These new findings add substantially to the existing challenges in controlling ozone pollution. For example, in the United States in 2016, 90% of non-compliance to the national ambient air quality standards was due to ozone whereas only 10% was due to particulate matter and other regulated pollutants. Climate change, through creating atmospheric conditions favoring ozone formation, has been and will continue to increase ozone concentrations in many parts of world. Worldwide, ozone is responsible for several hundreds of thousands of premature deaths and tens of millions of asthma-related emergency room visits annually. To combat ozone pollution globally, more aggressive reductions in fossil fuel consumption are needed to cut NO_x and VOCs as well as greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, preventive and therapeutic strategies are needed to alleviate the detrimental effects of ozone especially in more susceptible individuals. Interventional trials in humans are needed to evaluate the efficacy of antioxidants and ozone-scavenging compounds that have shown promising results in animal studies.

Considerations for evaluating green infrastructure impacts in microscale and macroscale air pollution dispersion models

Green infrastructure (GI) in urban areas may be adopted as a passive control system to reduce air pollutant concentrations. However, current dispersion models offer limited modelling options to evaluate its impact on ambient pollutant concentrations. The scope of this review revolves around the following question: how can GI be considered in readily available dispersion models to allow evaluation of its impacts on pollutant concentrations and health risk assessment? We examined the published literature on the parameterisation of deposition velocities and datasets for both particulate matter and gaseous pollutants that are required for deposition schemes. We evaluated the limitations of different air pollution dispersion models at two spatial scales - microscale (i.e. 10-500 m) and macroscale (i.e. 5-100 km) - in considering the effects of GI on air pollutant concentrations and exposure alteration. We conclude that the deposition schemes that represent GI impacts in detail are complex, resource-intensive, and involve an abundant volume of input data. An appropriate handling of GI characteristics (such as aerodynamic effect, deposition of air pollutants and surface roughness) in dispersion models is necessary for understanding the mechanism of air pollutant concentrations simulation in presence of GI at different spatial scales. The impacts of GI on air pollutant concentrations and health risk assessment (e.g., mortality, morbidity) are partly explored. The i-Tree tool with the BenMap model has been used to estimate the health outcomes of annually-averaged air pollutant removed by deposition over GI canopies at the macroscale. However, studies relating air pollution health risk assessments due to GI-related changes in short-term exposure, via pollutant concentrations redistribution at the microscale and enhanced atmospheric pollutant dilution by increased surface roughness at the macroscale, along with deposition, are rare. Suitable treatments of all physical and chemical processes in coupled dispersion-deposition models and assessments against real-world scenarios are vital for health risk assessments.

Simulation of Turbulent Mixing Effects on Essential NOx–O3–Hydrocarbon Photochemistry in Convective Boundary Layer

The turbulence kinetics model (TKM) describes an overall reaction rate for microscopic mass transfer phenomenon expressed as separation intensity, Is, in a turbulent reacting flow. This study examines the effects of turbulent mixing in the convective boundary layer (CBL) on essential NOx–O3–Hydrocarbon photochemistry containing sources of NO and a surrogate reactive hydrocarbon. The modeling approach applies for all species except OH with an assumption of a photostationary steady state. The TKM results reveal principal findings as follows: (1) effects of turbulence on reaction rates lead to significant segregations throughout most of the CBL in reaction pairs NO + O3, RH + OH and NO + HO2; (2) segregations permit significantly higher concentrations of NO and RH to build up and endure in the CBL than would occur for a non-turbulent atmosphere; (3) turbulent segregation influences limit and shift the ranges of NO and O3 concentrations compared to the non-turbulent case; (4) while there are differences between the TKM results and those for a published Large Eddy simulation (LES) of the same chemical system, there are also strong similarities. Therefore, a future study remains to compare model results to observations if and when appropriately time-resolved measurements of reacting species are obtained.

Global tropospheric effects of aromatic chemistry with the SAPRC-11 mechanism implemented in GEOS-Chem version 9-02

The Goddard Earth Observing System with chemistry (GEOS-Chem) model has been updated with the Statewide Air Pollution Research Center version 11 (SAPRC-11) aromatics chemical mechanism, with the purpose of evaluating global and regional effects of the most abundant aromatics (benzene, toluene, xylenes) on the chemical species important for tropospheric oxidation capacity. The model evaluation based on surface and aircraft observations indicates good agreement for aromatics and ozone. A comparison between scenarios in GEOS-Chem with simplified aromatic chemistry (as in the standard setup, with no ozone formation from related peroxy radicals or recycling of NOx) and with the SAPRC-11 scheme reveals relatively slight changes in ozone, the hydroxyl radical, and nitrogen oxides on a global mean basis (1 %-4 %), although remarkable regional differences (5 %-20 %) exist near the source regions. NO x decreases over the source regions and increases in the remote troposphere, due mainly to more efficient transport of peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), which is increased with the SAPRC aromatic chemistry. Model ozone mixing ratios with the updated aromatic chemistry increase by up to 5 ppb (more than 10 %), especially in industrially polluted regions. The ozone change is partly due to the direct influence of aromatic oxidation products on ozone production rates, and in part to the altered spatial distribution of NOx that enhances the tropospheric ozone production efficiency. Improved representation of aromatics is important to simulate the tropospheric oxidation.

Southeast Atmosphere Studies: learning from model-observation syntheses

Concentrations of atmospheric trace species in the United States have changed dramatically over the past several decades in response to pollution control strategies, shifts in domestic energy policy and economics, and economic development (and resulting emission changes) elsewhere in the world. Reliable projections of the future atmosphere require models to not only accurately describe current atmospheric concentrations, but to do so by representing chemical, physical and biological processes with conceptual and quantitative fidelity. Only through incorporation of the processes controlling emissions and chemical mechanisms that represent the key transformations among reactive molecules can models reliably project the impacts of future policy, energy and climate scenarios. Efforts to properly identify and implement the fundamental and controlling mechanisms in atmospheric models benefit from intensive observation periods, during which collocated measurements of diverse, speciated chemicals in both the gas and condensed phases are obtained. The Southeast Atmosphere Studies (SAS, including SENEX, SOAS, NOMADSS and SEAC4RS) conducted during the summer of 2013 provided an unprecedented opportunity for the atmospheric modeling community to come together to evaluate, diagnose and improve the representation of fundamental climate and air quality processes in models of varying temporal and spatial scales. This paper is aimed at discussing progress in evaluating, diagnosing and improving air quality and climate modeling using comparisons to SAS observations as a guide to thinking about improvements to mechanisms and parameterizations in models. The effort focused primarily on model representation of fundamental atmospheric processes that are essential to the formation of ozone, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and other trace species in the troposphere, with the ultimate goal of understanding the radiative impacts of these species in the southeast and elsewhere. Here we address questions surrounding four key themes: gas-phase chemistry, aerosol chemistry, regional climate and chemistry interactions, and natural and anthropogenic emissions. We expect this review to serve as a guidance for future modeling efforts.

Spatiotemporal prediction of daily ambient ozone levels across China using random forest for human exposure assessment

In China, ozone pollution shows an increasing trend and becomes the primary air pollutant in warm seasons. Leveraging the air quality monitoring network, a random forest model is developed to predict the daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations ([O₃]_MDA8) across China in 2015 for human exposure assessment. This model captures the observed spatiotemporal variations of [O₃]_MDA8 by using the data of meteorology, elevation, and recent-year emission inventories (cross-validation R² = 0.69 and RMSE = 26 μg/m³). Compared with chemical transport models that require a plenty of variables and expensive computation, the random forest model shows comparable or higher predictive performance based on only a handful of readily-available variables at much lower computational cost. The nationwide population-weighted [O₃]_MDA8 is predicted to be 84 ± 23 μg/m³ annually, with the highest seasonal mean in the summer (103 ± 8 μg/m³). The summer [O₃]_MDA8 is predicted to be the highest in North China (125 ± 17 μg/m³). Approximately 58% of the population lives in areas with more than 100 nonattainment days ([O₃]_MDA8>100 μg/m³), and 12% of the population are exposed to [O₃]_MDA8>160 μg/m³ (WHO Interim Target 1) for more than 30 days. As the most populous zones in China, the Beijing-Tianjin Metro, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Sichuan Basin are predicted to be at 154, 141, 124, and 98 nonattainment days, respectively. Effective controls of O₃ pollution are urgently needed for the highly-populated zones, especially the Beijing-Tianjin Metro with seasonal [O₃]_MDA8 of 140 ± 29 μg/m³ in summer. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first statistical modeling work of ambient O₃ for China at the national level. This timely and extensively validated [O₃]_MDA8 dataset is valuable for refining epidemiological analyses on O₃ pollution in China.

Heat in the southeastern United States: Characteristics, trends, and potential health impact

High summer temperatures in extratropical areas have an impact on the public's health, mainly through heat stress, high air pollution concentrations, and the transmission of tropical diseases. The purpose of this study is to examine the current characteristics of heat events and future projections of summer apparent temperature (AT)-and associated health concerns-throughout the southeastern United States. Synoptic climatology was used to assess the atmospheric characteristics of extreme heat days (EHDs) from 1979-2015. Ozone concentrations also were examined during EHDs. Trends in summer-season AT over the 37-year period and correlations between AT and atmospheric circulation were determined. Mid-century estimates of summer AT were calculated using downscaled data from an ensemble of global climate models. EHDs throughout the Southeast were characterized by ridging and anticyclones over the Southeast and the presence of moist tropical air masses. Exceedingly high ozone concentrations occurred on EHDs in the Atlanta area and throughout central North Carolina. While summer ATs did not increase significantly from 1979-2015, summer ATs are projected to increase substantially by mid-century, with most the Southeast having ATs similar to that of present-day southern Florida (i.e., a tropical climate). High ozone concentrations should continue to occur during future heat events. Large urban areas are expected to be the most affected by the future warming, resulting from intensifying and expanding urban heat islands, a large increase in heat-vulnerable populations, and climate conditions that will be highly suitable for tropical-disease transmission by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. This nexus of vulnerability creates the potential for heat-related morbidity and mortality, as well as the appearance of disease not previously seen in the region. These effects can be attenuated by policies that reduce urban heat (e.g., cool roofs and green roofs) and that improve infrastructure (e.g. emergency services, conditioned space).

Characterizing the impact of projected changes in climate and air quality on human exposures to ozone

The impact of climate change on human and environmental health is of critical concern. Population exposures to air pollutants both indoors and outdoors are influenced by a wide range of air quality, meteorological, behavioral, and housing-related factors, many of which are also impacted by climate change. An integrated methodology for modeling changes in human exposures to tropospheric ozone (O₃) owing to potential future changes in climate and demographics was implemented by linking existing modeling tools for climate, weather, air quality, population distribution, and human exposure. Human exposure results from the Air Pollutants Exposure Model (APEX) for 12 US cities show differences in daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) exposure patterns and levels by sex, age, and city for all scenarios. When climate is held constant and population demographics are varied, minimal difference in O₃ exposures is predicted even with the most extreme demographic change scenario. In contrast, when population is held constant, we see evidence of substantial changes in O₃ exposure for the most extreme change in climate. Similarly, we see increases in the percentage of the population in each city with at least one O₃ exposure exceedance above 60 p.p.b and 70 p.p.b thresholds for future changes in climate. For these climate and population scenarios, the impact of projected changes in climate and air quality on human exposure to O₃ are much larger than the impacts of changing demographics. These results indicate the potential for future changes in O₃ exposure as a result of changes in climate that could impact human health.