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Xie X, Hao M, Ding F, Helman D, Scheffran J, Wang Q, Ge Q, Jiang D. Exploring the direct and indirect impacts of climate variability on armed conflict in South Asia. iScience 2022; 25:105258. [PMID: 36439983 PMCID: PMC9684034 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.105258] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2022] [Revised: 09/03/2022] [Accepted: 09/28/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Although numerous studies have examined the effects of climate variability on armed conflict, the complexity of these linkages requires deeper understanding to assess the causes and effects. Here, we assembled an extensive database of armed conflict, climate, and non-climate data for South Asia. We used structural equation modeling to quantify both the direct and indirect impacts of climate variability on armed conflict. We found that precipitation impacts armed conflict via direct and indirect effects which are contradictory in sign. Temperature affects armed conflict only through a direct path, while indirect effects were insignificant. Yet, an in-depth analysis of indirect effects showed that the net impact is weak due to two strong contradictory effects offsetting each other. Our findings illustrate the complex link between climate variability and armed conflict, highlighting the importance of a detailed analysis of South Asia's underlying mechanisms at the regional scale.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaolan Xie
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Mengmeng Hao
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Fangyu Ding
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - David Helman
- Institute of Environmental Sciences (Soil & Water), The Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment, The Hebrew University, Rehovot 7610001, Israel
- Advanced School for Environmental Studies, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem 91905, Israel
| | - Jürgen Scheffran
- Institute of Geography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Hamburg 20144, Germany
| | - Qian Wang
- Centre for Tropical Medicine, Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford OX13QR, UK
| | - Quansheng Ge
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
| | - Dong Jiang
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
- Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Land & Resources, Beijing 100101, China
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2
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Crabtree SA, Dunne JA. Towards a science of archaeoecology. Trends Ecol Evol 2022; 37:976-984. [PMID: 36055892 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2022.07.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2022] [Revised: 07/14/2022] [Accepted: 07/18/2022] [Indexed: 01/18/2023]
Abstract
We propose defining a field of research called 'archaeoecology' that examines the past ~60 000 years of interactions between humans and ecosystems to better understand the human place within them. Archaeoecology explicitly integrates questions, data, and approaches from archaeology and ecology, and coalesces recent and future studies that demonstrate the usefulness of integrating archaeological, environmental, and ecological data for understanding the past. Defining a subfield of archaeoecology, much as the related fields of environmental archaeology and palaeoecology have emerged as distinct areas of research, provides a clear intellectual context for helping us to understand the trajectory of human-ecosystem interactions in the past, during the present, and into the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stefani A Crabtree
- Department of Environment and Society, College of Natural Resources, Utah State University, 5200 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322-5200, USA; The Ecology Center, Utah State University, 5205 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322-5200, USA; Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, NM 87501, USA; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, James Cook University, PO Box 6811, Cairns, QLD 4870, Australia; Crow Canyon Research Institute, 23390 County Road K, Cortez, CO 81321, USA.
| | - Jennifer A Dunne
- Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, NM 87501, USA.
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3
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Modelling armed conflict risk under climate change with machine learning and time-series data. Nat Commun 2022; 13:2839. [PMID: 35595793 PMCID: PMC9123163 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30356-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2020] [Accepted: 04/19/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding the risk of armed conflict is essential for promoting peace. Although the relationship between climate variability and armed conflict has been studied by the research community for decades with quantitative and qualitative methods at different spatial and temporal scales, causal linkages at a global scale remain poorly understood. Here we adopt a quantitative modelling framework based on machine learning to infer potential causal linkages from high-frequency time-series data and simulate the risk of armed conflict worldwide from 2000–2015. Our results reveal that the risk of armed conflict is primarily influenced by stable background contexts with complex patterns, followed by climate deviations related covariates. The inferred patterns show that positive temperature deviations or precipitation extremes are associated with increased risk of armed conflict worldwide. Our findings indicate that a better understanding of climate-conflict linkages at the global scale enhances the spatiotemporal modelling capacity for the risk of armed conflict. Using machine learning, the authors reveal that stable background conditions explain most variation in armed conflict risk worldwide. Positive temperature deviations and precipitation extremes also increase the risk of conflict onset and incidence.
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4
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Global hunter-gatherer population densities constrained by influence of seasonality on diet composition. Nat Ecol Evol 2021; 5:1536-1545. [PMID: 34504317 PMCID: PMC7611941 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-021-01548-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2020] [Accepted: 08/04/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
The dependence of hunter-gatherers on local net primary production (NPP) to provide food played a major role in shaping long-term human population dynamics. Observations of contemporary hunter-gatherers have shown an overall correlation between population density and annual NPP but with a 1,000-fold variation in population density per unit NPP that remains unexplained. Here, we build a process-based hunter-gatherer population model embedded within a global terrestrial biosphere model, which explicitly addresses the extraction of NPP through dynamically allocated hunting and gathering activities. The emergent results reveal a strong, previously unrecognized effect of seasonality on population density via diet composition, whereby hunter-gatherers consume high fractions of meat in regions where growing seasons are short, leading to greatly reduced population density due to trophic inefficiency. This seasonal carnivory bottleneck largely explains the wide variation in population density per unit NPP and questions the prevailing usage of annual NPP as the proxy of carrying capacity for ancient humans. Our process-based approach has the potential to greatly refine our understanding of dynamical responses of ancient human populations to past environmental changes.
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5
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Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change is currently driving environmental transformation on a scale and at a pace that exceeds historical records. This represents an undeniably serious challenge to existing social, political, and economic systems. Humans have successfully faced similar challenges in the past, however. The archaeological record and Earth archives offer rare opportunities to observe the complex interaction between environmental and human systems under different climate regimes and at different spatial and temporal scales. The archaeology of climate change offers opportunities to identify the factors that promoted human resilience in the past and apply the knowledge gained to the present, contributing a much-needed, long-term perspective to climate research. One of the strengths of the archaeological record is the cultural diversity it encompasses, which offers alternatives to the solutions proposed from within the Western agro-industrial complex, which might not be viable cross-culturally. While contemporary climate discourse focuses on the importance of biodiversity, we highlight the importance of cultural diversity as a source of resilience.
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6
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de Vareilles A, Pelling R, Woodbridge J, Fyfe R. Archaeology and agriculture: plants, people, and past land-use. Trends Ecol Evol 2021; 36:943-954. [PMID: 34210535 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2021.06.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2021] [Revised: 05/27/2021] [Accepted: 06/03/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
As a specialised branch of archaeology requiring specific field and laboratory methodologies, the contributions of archaeobotany have often been overlooked by the ecological research community. Developments in the fields of botany, chemistry, and ancient DNA analyses have greatly increased the potential for archaeobotany to contribute to topical questions relating to the Anthropocene and landscape transformations. We review the role of archaeobotany in identifying and describing past arable land use. Analytical techniques are illustrated with examples at both local and regional scales, demonstrating how archaeobotany can provide unique details of the wide array of past subsistence and land-use strategies. These data and their potential should be better recognised as important information that could underpin models seeking to evaluate or predict the effects of socioenvironmental interactions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anne de Vareilles
- Historic England, Fort Cumberland, Fort Cumberland Road, Portsmouth P04 9LD, UK.
| | - Ruth Pelling
- Historic England, Fort Cumberland, Fort Cumberland Road, Portsmouth P04 9LD, UK
| | - Jessie Woodbridge
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK
| | - Ralph Fyfe
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK
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8
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Abstract
Despite the vast evidence on the short-run effects of adverse climate shocks on the economy, our understanding of their long-run impact on institutions is limited. To tackle such a key issue, a vast body of research has focused on ancient societies because of the limited complexity of their economies and their unparalleled experience with environmental and institutional change. Notably, the "collapse archaeology" literature has reported countless correlations consistent with the mantra that severe droughts are bound to trigger institutional crises. This conclusion, however, has been recently challenged by a stream of papers that, building on more detailed data on Bronze Age Mesopotamia and a more credible theory-based empirical strategy, have yielded the following two results. First, severe droughts pushed the elites to grant strong political and property rights to the nonelites to convince them that a sufficient part of the returns on joint investments would be shared via public good provision and, thus, to cooperate and accumulate a culture of cooperation. Second, a more favorable climate allowed the elites to elicit cooperation under less inclusive political regimes as well as a weaker culture of cooperation and, possibly, incomplete property rights. These patterns emphasize the importance of considering the asymmetric effect of droughts and, more generally, combining natural and social sciences for the evaluation of climate-related policies.
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9
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Lawrence D, Palmisano A, de Gruchy MW. Collapse and continuity: A multi-proxy reconstruction of settlement organization and population trajectories in the Northern Fertile Crescent during the 4.2kya Rapid Climate Change event. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0244871. [PMID: 33428648 PMCID: PMC7799814 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0244871] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2020] [Accepted: 12/17/2020] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
The rise and fall of ancient societies have been attributed to rapid climate change events. One of the most discussed of these is the 4.2kya event, a period of increased aridity and cooling posited as the cause of societal changes across the globe, including the collapse of the Akkadian Empire in Mesopotamia. Studies seeking to correlate social and climatic changes around the 4.2kya event have tended to focus either on highly localized analyses of specific sites or surveys or more synthetic overviews at pan-continental scales, and temporally on the event and its aftermath. Here we take an empirical approach at a large spatial scale to investigate trends in population and settlement organization across the entirety of Northern Fertile Crescent (Northern Mesopotamia and the Northern Levant) from 6,000 to 3,000 cal BP. We use Summed Probability Distributions of radiocarbon dates and data from eighteen archaeological surveys as proxies for population, and a dataset of all settlements over ten hectares in size as a proxy for the degree of urbanization. The goal is to examine the spatial and temporal impact of the 4.2kya event and to contextualize it within longer term patterns of settlement. We find that negative trends are visible during the event horizon in all three proxies. However, these occur against a long-term trend of increased population and urbanization supported through unsustainable overshoot and the exploitation of a drier zone with increased risk of crop failure. We argue that the 4.2kya event occurred during a period of unprecedented urban and rural growth which may have been unsustainable even without an exogenous climate forcing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dan Lawrence
- Department of Archaeology, Durham University, Durham, United Kingdom
| | - Alessio Palmisano
- Department of Ancient History, Ludwig-Maximilian University of Munich, München, Germany
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10
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Pauketat TR. When the Rains Stopped: Evapotranspiration and Ontology at Ancient Cahokia. JOURNAL OF ANTHROPOLOGICAL RESEARCH 2020. [DOI: 10.1086/711102] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
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11
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The Paradox of Informal Settlements Revealed in an ATLAS of Informality: Findings from Mapping Growth in the Most Common Yet Unmapped Forms of Urbanization. SUSTAINABILITY 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/su12229510] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Informal settlements are the most common form of urbanization on the planet, accounting for one-third of the total urban form. It is expected that by the mid twenty-first century, up to three billion people will live in informal urban environments. However, we lack a consistent mapping method to pinpoint where that informality is located or how it expands. This paper presents the findings from a collection of standardized measurements of 260 informal settlements across the world. The main research goal is to identify a standard global sample of informal neighborhoods. It then focuses on mapping urban growth with remote sensing and direct mapping tools. The third stage classifies settlements based on how adjacency features such as development, topography, or bodies of water relate to their growth. The survey of growth corroborates the idea of informality as expanding geography, although at different rates than previously cited in the literature. We found peri-urban location to be a suitable estimator of informal settlement growth. This finding validates the comparison of multiple settlements to understand rates of change of urban informality worldwide. The findings here are vital to resolve important questions about the role of informal urban development in the context of accelerated global population growth.
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12
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Leveraging legacy archaeological collections as proxies for climate and environmental research. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020; 117:8287-8294. [PMID: 32284414 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1914154117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Understanding the causes and consequences of previous climate changes is essential for testing present-day climate models and projections. Archaeological sites are paleoenvironmental archives containing unique ecological baselines with data on paleoclimate transformations at a human timescale. Anthropogenic and nonanthropogenic forces have destroyed many sites, and others are under immediate threat. In the face of this loss, previously excavated collections from these sites-referred to as legacy collections-offer a source of climate and other paleoenvironmental information that may no longer exist elsewhere. Here, we 1) review obstacles to systematically using data from legacy archaeological collections, such as inconsistent or unreported field methods, inadequate records, unsatisfactory curation, and insufficient public knowledge of relevant collections; 2) suggest best practices for integrating archaeological data into climate and environmental research; and 3) summarize several studies to demonstrate the benefits and challenges of using legacy collections as archives of local and regional environmental proxies. Data from archaeological legacy collections contribute regional ecological baselines as well as serve to correct shifting baselines. They also enable regional climate reconstructions at various timescales and corroborate or refine radiocarbon dates. Such uses of legacy collections raise ethical concerns regarding ownership of and responsibility for cultural resources and highlight the importance of Indigenous involvement in planning and executing fieldwork and stewardship of cultural heritage. Finally, we discuss methodologies, practices, and policies pertaining to archaeological legacy collections and support calls for discipline-wide shifts in collections management to ensure their long-term utility in multidisciplinary research and public engagement.
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13
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Shin J, Price MH, Wolpert DH, Shimao H, Tracey B, Kohler TA. Scale and information-processing thresholds in Holocene social evolution. Nat Commun 2020; 11:2394. [PMID: 32409638 PMCID: PMC7224170 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-16035-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2019] [Accepted: 04/06/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Throughout the Holocene, societies developed additional layers of administration and more information-rich instruments for managing and recording transactions and events as they grew in population and territory. Yet, while such increases seem inevitable, they are not. Here we use the Seshat database to investigate the development of hundreds of polities, from multiple continents, over thousands of years. We find that sociopolitical development is dominated first by growth in polity scale, then by improvements in information processing and economic systems, and then by further increases in scale. We thus define a Scale Threshold for societies, beyond which growth in information processing becomes paramount, and an Information Threshold, which once crossed facilitates additional growth in scale. Polities diverge in socio-political features below the Information Threshold, but reconverge beyond it. We suggest an explanation for the evolutionary divergence between Old and New World polities based on phased growth in scale and information processing. We also suggest a mechanism to help explain social collapses with no evident external causes. The Seshat database has made it possible to reveal large-scale patterns in human cultural evolution. Here, Shin et al. investigate transitions in social complexity and find alternating thresholds of polity size and information processing required for further sociopolitical development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jaeweon Shin
- Department of Mathematics, Rice University, 6100 Main St, Houston, TX, 77005, USA
| | | | - David H Wolpert
- Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Rd, Santa Fe, NM, 87501, USA. .,Center for Biosocial Complex Systems, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85281, USA.
| | - Hajime Shimao
- Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Rd, Santa Fe, NM, 87501, USA
| | - Brendan Tracey
- Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Rd, Santa Fe, NM, 87501, USA
| | - Timothy A Kohler
- Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Rd, Santa Fe, NM, 87501, USA. .,Department of Anthropology, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, 99164-4910, USA. .,Crow Canyon Archaeological Center, 23390 C R K, Cortez, CO, 81321, USA. .,Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, 457-4 Kamigamo Motoyama, Kita-ku, Kyoto, 603-8047, Japan.
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14
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Rick TC, Sandweiss DH. Archaeology, climate, and global change in the Age of Humans. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020; 117:8250-8253. [PMID: 32284423 PMCID: PMC7165415 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2003612117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
We live in an age characterized by increasing environmental, social, economic, and political uncertainty. Human societies face significant challenges, ranging from climate change to food security, biodiversity declines and extinction, and political instability. In response, scientists, policy makers, and the general public are seeking new interdisciplinary or transdisciplinary approaches to evaluate and identify meaningful solutions to these global challenges. Underrecognized among these challenges is the disappearing record of past environmental change, which can be key to surviving the future. Historical sciences such as archaeology access the past to provide long-term perspectives on past human ecodynamics: the interaction between human social and cultural systems and climate and environment. Such studies shed light on how we arrived at the present day and help us search for sustainable trajectories toward the future. Here, we highlight contributions by archaeology-the study of the human past-to interdisciplinary research programs designed to evaluate current social and environmental challenges and contribute to solutions for the future. The past is a multimillennial experiment in human ecodynamics, and, together with our transdisciplinary colleagues, archaeology is well positioned to uncover the lessons of that experiment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Torben C Rick
- Department of Anthropology, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC 20013-7012;
| | - Daniel H Sandweiss
- Department of Anthropology, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469;
- Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469
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15
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LeFebvre MJ, Brenskelle L, Wieczorek J, Kansa SW, Kansa EC, Wallis NJ, King JN, Emery KF, Guralnick R. ZooArchNet: Connecting zooarchaeological specimens to the biodiversity and archaeology data networks. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0215369. [PMID: 30978247 PMCID: PMC6461259 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0215369] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/12/2018] [Accepted: 04/01/2019] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Interdisciplinary collaborations and data sharing are essential to addressing the long history of human-environmental interactions underlying the modern biodiversity crisis. Such collaborations are increasingly facilitated by, and dependent upon, sharing open access data from a variety of disciplinary communities and data sources, including those within biology, paleontology, and archaeology. Significant advances in biodiversity open data sharing have focused on neontological and paleontological specimen records, making available over a billion records through the Global Biodiversity Information Facility. But to date, less effort has been placed on the integration of important archaeological sources of biodiversity, such as zooarchaeological specimens. Zooarchaeological specimens are rich with both biological and cultural heritage data documenting nearly all phases of human interaction with animals and the surrounding environment through time, filling a critical gap between paleontological and neontological sources of data within biodiversity networks. Here we describe technical advances for mobilizing zooarchaeological specimen-specific biological and cultural data. In particular, we demonstrate adaptations in the workflow used by biodiversity publisher VertNet to mobilize Darwin Core formatted zooarchaeological data to the GBIF network. We also show how a linked open data approach can be used to connect existing biodiversity publishing mechanisms with archaeoinformatics publishing mechanisms through collaboration with the Open Context platform. Examples of ZooArchNet published datasets are used to show the efficacy of creating this critically needed bridge between biological and archaeological sources of open access data. These technical advances and efforts to support data publication are placed in the larger context of ZooarchNet, a new project meant to build community around new approaches to interconnect zoorchaeological data and knowledge across disciplines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michelle J. LeFebvre
- Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
| | - Laura Brenskelle
- Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
| | - John Wieczorek
- Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
| | - Sarah Whitcher Kansa
- Open Context, San Francisco, California, United States of America
- Archaeological Research Facility, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
| | - Eric C. Kansa
- Open Context, San Francisco, California, United States of America
| | - Neill J. Wallis
- Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
| | - Jessica N. King
- Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
| | - Kitty F. Emery
- Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
| | - Robert Guralnick
- Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
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16
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Thomas K, Hardy RD, Lazrus H, Mendez M, Orlove B, Rivera‐Collazo I, Roberts JT, Rockman M, Warner BP, Winthrop R. Explaining differential vulnerability to climate change: A social science review. WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS. CLIMATE CHANGE 2019; 10:e565. [PMID: 31007726 PMCID: PMC6472565 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.565] [Citation(s) in RCA: 72] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2018] [Revised: 07/16/2018] [Accepted: 11/05/2018] [Indexed: 05/02/2023]
Abstract
The varied effects of recent extreme weather events around the world exemplify the uneven impacts of climate change on populations, even within relatively small geographic regions. Differential human vulnerability to environmental hazards results from a range of social, economic, historical, and political factors, all of which operate at multiple scales. While adaptation to climate change has been the dominant focus of policy and research agendas, it is essential to ask as well why some communities and peoples are disproportionately exposed to and affected by climate threats. The cases and synthesis presented here are organized around four key themes (resource access, governance, culture, and knowledge), which we approach from four social science fields (cultural anthropology, archaeology, human geography, and sociology). Social scientific approaches to human vulnerability draw vital attention to the root causes of climate change threats and the reasons that people are forced to adapt to them. Because vulnerability is a multidimensional process rather than an unchanging state, a dynamic social approach to vulnerability is most likely to improve mitigation and adaptation planning efforts. This article is categorized under:Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Values-Based Approach to Vulnerability and Adaptation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kimberley Thomas
- Department of Geography and Urban StudiesTemple UniversityPhiladelphiaPennsylvania
| | | | - Heather Lazrus
- Earth System LaboratoryNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderColorado
| | - Michael Mendez
- School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale UniversityNew HavenConnecticut
| | - Ben Orlove
- School of International and Public AffairsColumbia UniversityNew YorkNew York
| | - Isabel Rivera‐Collazo
- Department of Anthropology and Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of CaliforniaSan DiegoCalifornia
| | | | | | - Benjamin P. Warner
- Department of Geography and Environmental StudiesUniversity of New MexicoAlbuquerqueNew Mexico
| | - Robert Winthrop
- Department of AnthropologyUniversity of MarylandCollege ParkMaryland
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17
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Jorgenson AK, Fiske S, Hubacek K, Li J, McGovern T, Rick T, Schor JB, Solecki W, York R, Zycherman A. Social science perspectives on drivers of and responses to global climate change. WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS. CLIMATE CHANGE 2019; 10:e554. [PMID: 30774719 PMCID: PMC6360453 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.554] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2018] [Revised: 06/07/2018] [Accepted: 08/16/2018] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
This article provides a review of recent anthropological, archeological, geographical, and sociological research on anthropogenic drivers of climate change, with a particular focus on drivers of carbon emissions, mitigation and adaptation. The four disciplines emphasize cultural, economic, geographic, historical, political, and social-structural factors to be important drivers of and responses to climate change. Each of these disciplines has unique perspectives and makes noteworthy contributions to our shared understanding of anthropogenic drivers, but they also complement one another and contribute to integrated, multidisciplinary frameworks. The article begins with discussions of research on temporal dimensions of human drivers of carbon emissions, highlighting interactions between long-term and near-term drivers. Next, descriptions of the disciplines' contributions to the understanding of mitigation and adaptation are provided. It concludes with a summary of key lessons offered by the four disciplines as well as suggestions for future research. This article is categorized under: Climate Economics > Economics and Climate Change.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Shirley Fiske
- Department of AnthropologyUniversity of MarylandCollege ParkMaryland
| | - Klaus Hubacek
- Department of Geographical SciencesUniversity of MarylandCollege ParkMaryland
| | - Jia Li
- U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyWashingtonDC
| | - Tom McGovern
- Department of AnthropologyHunter College‐CUNYNew YorkNew York
| | - Torben Rick
- Department of Anthropology, National Museum of Natural HistorySmithsonian InstitutionWashingtonDC
| | - Juliet B. Schor
- Department of SociologyBoston CollegeChestnut HillMassachusetts
| | | | - Richard York
- Department of SociologyUniversity of OregonEugeneOregon
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18
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Abstract
Current theoretical models of the commons assert that common-pool resources can only be managed sustainably with clearly defined boundaries around both communities and the resources that they use. In these theoretical models, open access inevitably leads to a tragedy of the commons. However, in many open-access systems, use of common-pool resources seems to be sustainable over the long term (i.e., current resource use does not threaten use of common-pool resources for future generations). Here, we outline the conditions that support sustainable resource use in open property regimes. We use the conceptual framework of complex adaptive systems to explain how processes within and couplings between human and natural systems can lead to the emergence of efficient, equitable, and sustainable resource use. We illustrate these dynamics in eight case studies of different social–ecological systems, including mobile pastoralism, marine and freshwater fisheries, swidden agriculture, and desert foraging. Our theoretical framework identifies eight conditions that are critical for the emergence of sustainable use of common-pool resources in open property regimes. In addition, we explain how changes in boundary conditions may push open property regimes to either common property regimes or a tragedy of the commons. Our theoretical model of emergent sustainability helps us to understand the diversity and dynamics of property regimes across a wide range of social–ecological systems and explains the enigma of open access without a tragedy. We recommend that policy interventions in such self-organizing systems should focus on managing the conditions that are critical for the emergence and persistence of sustainability.
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Contreras DA, Hiriart E, Bondeau A, Kirman A, Guiot J, Bernard L, Suarez R, Van Der Leeuw S. Regional paleoclimates and local consequences: Integrating GIS analysis of diachronic settlement patterns and process-based agroecosystem modeling of potential agricultural productivity in Provence (France). PLoS One 2018; 13:e0207622. [PMID: 30540786 PMCID: PMC6291104 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0207622] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2018] [Accepted: 11/02/2018] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Holocene climate variability in the Mediterranean Basin is often cited as a potential driver of societal change, but the mechanisms of this putative influence are generally little explored. In this paper we integrate two tools–agro-ecosystem modeling of potential agricultural yields and spatial analysis of archaeological settlement pattern data–in order to examine the human consequences of past climatic changes. Focusing on a case study in Provence (France), we adapt an agro-ecosystem model to the modeling of potential agricultural productivity during the Holocene. Calibrating this model for past crops and agricultural practices and using a downscaling approach to produce high spatiotemporal resolution paleoclimate data from a Mediterranean Holocene climate reconstruction, we estimate realistic potential agricultural yields under past climatic conditions. These serve as the basis for spatial analysis of archaeological settlement patterns, in which we examine the changing relationship over time between agricultural productivity and settlement location. Using potential agricultural productivity (PAgP) as a measure of the human consequences of climate changes, we focus on the relative magnitudes of 1) climate-driven shifts in PAgP and 2) the potential increases in productivity realizable through agricultural intensification. Together these offer a means of assessing the scale and mechanisms of the vulnerability and resilience of Holocene inhabitants of Provence to climate change. Our results suggest that settlement patterns were closely tied to PAgP throughout most of the Holocene, with the notable exception of the period from the Middle Bronze Age through the Early Iron Age. This pattern does not appear to be linked to any climatically-driven changes in PAgP, and conversely the most salient changes in PAgP during the Holocene cannot be clearly linked to any changes in settlement pattern. We argue that this constitutes evidence that vulnerability and resilience to climate change are strongly dependent on societal variables.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel A. Contreras
- Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d’Ecologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon Université, Aix-en-Provence, France
- Groupement de recherche en économie quantitative d’Aix-Marseille (GREQAM), Aix-Marseille Université, Aix-en-Provence, France
- Department of Anthropology, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Eneko Hiriart
- Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, Ministère de la Culture, MMSH, Centre Camille Julian, Maison Méditerranéenne des Sciences de l’Homme, Aix-en-Provence, France
- CRP2A-IRAMAT (UMR 5060), Université Bordeaux Montaigne, Bordeaux, France
| | - Alberte Bondeau
- Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d’Ecologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon Université, Aix-en-Provence, France
| | - Alan Kirman
- CAMS-EHESS, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales and Aix-Marseille Université, Aix-en-Provence, France
| | - Joël Guiot
- Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, INRA, Coll France, CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France
| | - Loup Bernard
- Université de Strasbourg, Université de Haute-Alsace, CNRS, Archimède UMR, Strasbourg, France
| | - Romain Suarez
- LabEx OT-Med, Aix-Marseille Université, Aix-en-Provence, France
| | - Sander Van Der Leeuw
- Schools of Sustainability and Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, United States of America
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Boser CL, Sillett TS, Collins PW, Faulkner KR, Funk WC, Ghalambor CK, Laughrin L, Pauly GB, Robertson JM, Shea R, Vickers W. Equipping Tomorrow's Historical Ecologist: Priorities for Documenting Conditions of the Terrestrial Fauna of Santa Cruz Island, California. WEST N AM NATURALIST 2018. [DOI: 10.3398/064.078.0426] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | - T. Scott Sillett
- Migratory Bird Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Washington, DC 20013
| | - Paul W. Collins
- Santa Barbara Museum of Natural History, Santa Barbara, CA 93105
| | | | - W. Chris Funk
- Department of Biology, Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523
| | - Cameron K. Ghalambor
- Department of Biology, Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523
| | - Lyndal Laughrin
- University of California Natural Reserve System, UCSB, Santa Barbara, CA 93106
| | - Gregory B. Pauly
- Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County, Los Angeles, CA 90007
| | | | - Robyn Shea
- California State University Channel Islands, Camarillo, CA 93012
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d’Alpoim Guedes J, Bocinsky RK. Climate change stimulated agricultural innovation and exchange across Asia. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2018; 4:eaar4491. [PMID: 30402535 PMCID: PMC6209390 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aar4491] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2017] [Accepted: 10/02/2018] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
Ancient farmers experienced climate change at the local level through variations in the yields of their staple crops. However, archaeologists have had difficulty in determining where, when, and how changes in climate affected ancient farmers. We model how several key transitions in temperature affected the productivity of six grain crops across Eurasia. Cooling events between 3750 and 3000 cal. BP lead humans in parts of the Tibetan Plateau and in Central Asia to diversify their crops. A second event at 2000 cal. BP leads farmers in central China to also diversify their cropping systems and to develop systems that allowed transport of grains from southern to northern China. In other areas where crop returns fared even worse, humans reduced their risk by increasing investment in nomadic pastoralism and developing long-distance networks of trade. By translating changes in climatic variables into factors that mattered to ancient farmers, we situate the adaptive strategies they developed to deal with variance in crop returns in the context of environmental and climatic changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jade d’Alpoim Guedes
- Department of Anthropology and Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
| | - R. Kyle Bocinsky
- Crow Canyon Archaeological Center, Cortez, CO 81321, USA
- Department of Anthropology, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164, USA
- Montana Climate Office, Montana Forest and Conservation Experiment Station, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812, USA
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Opinion: Fostering synthesis in archaeology to advance science and benefit society. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2018; 114:10999-11002. [PMID: 29073009 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1715950114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
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Anderson DG, Bissett TG, Yerka SJ, Wells JJ, Kansa EC, Kansa SW, Myers KN, DeMuth RC, White DA. Sea-level rise and archaeological site destruction: An example from the southeastern United States using DINAA (Digital Index of North American Archaeology). PLoS One 2017; 12:e0188142. [PMID: 29186200 PMCID: PMC5706671 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0188142] [Citation(s) in RCA: 66] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2017] [Accepted: 11/01/2017] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
The impact of changing climate on terrestrial and underwater archaeological sites, historic buildings, and cultural landscapes can be examined through quantitatively-based analyses encompassing large data samples and broad geographic and temporal scales. The Digital Index of North American Archaeology (DINAA) is a multi-institutional collaboration that allows researchers online access to linked heritage data from multiple sources and data sets. The effects of sea-level rise and concomitant human population relocation is examined using a sample from nine states encompassing much of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States. A 1 m rise in sea-level will result in the loss of over >13,000 recorded historic and prehistoric archaeological sites, as well as over 1000 locations currently eligible for inclusion on the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP), encompassing archaeological sites, standing structures, and other cultural properties. These numbers increase substantially with each additional 1 m rise in sea level, with >32,000 archaeological sites and >2400 NRHP properties lost should a 5 m rise occur. Many more unrecorded archaeological and historic sites will also be lost as large areas of the landscape are flooded. The displacement of millions of people due to rising seas will cause additional impacts where these populations resettle. Sea level rise will thus result in the loss of much of the record of human habitation of the coastal margin in the Southeast within the next one to two centuries, and the numbers indicate the magnitude of the impact on the archaeological record globally. Construction of large linked data sets is essential to developing procedures for sampling, triage, and mitigation of these impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- David G. Anderson
- Department of Anthropology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Thaddeus G. Bissett
- Department of Anthropology, Northern Kentucky University, Highland Heights, Kentucky, United States of America
| | - Stephen J. Yerka
- Department of Anthropology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, United States of America
| | - Joshua J. Wells
- Department of Anthropology, Indiana University South Bend, South Bend, Indiana, United States of America
| | - Eric C. Kansa
- The Alexandria Archive Institute/Open Context, San Francisco, California, United States of America
| | - Sarah W. Kansa
- The Alexandria Archive Institute/Open Context, San Francisco, California, United States of America
| | - Kelsey Noack Myers
- Department of Anthropology, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, United States of America
| | - R. Carl DeMuth
- Department of Anthropology, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, United States of America
| | - Devin A. White
- Geographic Information Science and Technology Group, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, United States of America
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Kaniewski D, Marriner N, Ilan D, Morhange C, Thareani Y, Van Campo E. Climate change and water management in the biblical city of Dan. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2017; 3:e1700954. [PMID: 29181444 PMCID: PMC5699899 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1700954] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2017] [Accepted: 11/01/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Global climate change has sharpened focus on the social and economic challenges associated with water deficits, particularly in regions where anthropogenic demands exceed supply. This modern condition was also experienced by the people of ancient western Asia, where chronic water shortages were accentuated by recurrent droughts. However, human societies may react to climate change, particularly desiccation, in different ways depending on specific local conditions. Focusing on the biblical site of Tel Dan (present-day Israel), we show the effects of severe precipitation decline in an environment that was well watered and fertile even in times of drought. Such local niches of prosperity became attractive targets for predation when food resources became scarce in surrounding rain-fed areas. We propose that predation forced urban populations to either flee or adopt new subsistence strategies. Predation and abandonment, even if only partial, led to the poor maintenance of water networks in and around the city. Once stagnant water surrounded the area, water-borne disease proliferated. Our study shows how climate changes can disrupt social and political structures, cause water system management to collapse, and facilitate marshland expansion.
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Affiliation(s)
- David Kaniewski
- Université Paul Sabatier–Toulouse 3, EcoLab (Laboratoire d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), Bâtiment 4R1, 118 Route de Narbonne, 31062 Toulouse cedex 9, France
- CNRS, EcoLab (Laboratoire d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), 31062 Toulouse cedex 9, France
- Institut Universitaire de France, Secteur Biologie-Médecine-Santé, 103 Boulevard Saint Michel, 75005 Paris, France
| | - Nick Marriner
- CNRS, Laboratoire Chrono-Environnement UMR6249, Université de Franche-Comté, UFR ST, 16 Route de Gray, 25030 Besançon, France
| | - David Ilan
- The Nelson Glueck School of Biblical Archaeology, Hebrew Union College Jewish Institute of Religion, 13 King David Street, Jerusalem 94101, Israel
| | - Christophe Morhange
- Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, Centre Européen de Recherche et d’Enseignement des Géosciences de l’Environnement (CEREGE), UM 34, Europôle de l’Arbois BP80, 13545 Aix-en-Provence, France
| | - Yifat Thareani
- The Nelson Glueck School of Biblical Archaeology, Hebrew Union College Jewish Institute of Religion, 13 King David Street, Jerusalem 94101, Israel
| | - Elise Van Campo
- Université Paul Sabatier–Toulouse 3, EcoLab (Laboratoire d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), Bâtiment 4R1, 118 Route de Narbonne, 31062 Toulouse cedex 9, France
- CNRS, EcoLab (Laboratoire d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), 31062 Toulouse cedex 9, France
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Gillreath-Brown A, Bocinsky RK. A Dialogue Between Empirical and Model-Based Agricultural Studies in Archaeology. J ETHNOBIOL 2017. [DOI: 10.2993/0278-0771-37.2.167] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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27
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Palaeoecology: Agriculture emerges from the calm. Nat Ecol Evol 2017; 1:85. [DOI: 10.1038/s41559-017-0085] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
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