Isolating the roles of movement and reproduction on effective connectivity alters conservation priorities for an endangered bird

Genetic patterns reveal geographic drivers of divergence in silvereyes (Zosterops lateralis)

Identifying mechanisms that drive population divergence under varying geographic and ecological scenarios can inform our understanding of evolution and speciation. In particular, analysis of genetic data from island populations with known colonisation timelines allows us to identify potential source populations of diverging island subspecies and current relationships among populations. Silvereyes (Zosterops lateralis) are a small passerine that have served as a valuable study system to investigate evolutionary patterns on both large and small geographic scales. We examined genetic relatedness and diversity of two silvereye subspecies, the mainland Z. l. cornwalli and island Z. l. chlorocephalus, and used 18 077 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), to compare locations across southeast Queensland, Australia. Although silvereyes are prolific island colonisers our findings revealed population divergence over relatively small spatial scales was strongly influenced by geographic isolation mediated by water barriers. Strong genetic connectivity was displayed between mainland sites, but minimal inter-island connectivity was shown despite comparable sampling distances. Genetic diversity analysis showed little difference in heterozygosity between island and mainland populations, but lower inbreeding scores among the island populations. Our study confirmed the range of the Z. l. chlorocephalus subspecies throughout the southern Great Barrier Reef. Our results show that water barriers and not geographic distance per se are important in driving incipient divergence in island populations. This helps to explain the relatively high number of phenotypically differentiated, but often geographically proximate, island silvereye subspecies compared to a lower number of phenotypically less well-defined Australian continental subspecies.

Advances and challenges in ecological connectivity science

Maintaining and restoring ecological connectivity will be key in helping to prevent and reverse the loss of biodiversity. Fortunately, a growing body of research conducted over the last few decades has advanced our understanding of connectivity science, which will help inform evidence-based connectivity conservation actions. Increases in data availability and computing capacity have helped to dramatically increase our ability to model functional connectivity using more sophisticated models. Keeping track of these advances can be difficult, even for connectivity scientists and practitioners. In this article, we highlight some key advances from the past decade and outline many of the remaining challenges. We describe the efforts to increase the biological realism of connectivity models by, for example, isolating movement behaviors, population parameters, directional movements, and the effects of climate change. We also discuss considerations of when to model connectivity for focal or multiple species. Finally, we reflect on how to account for uncertainty and increase the transparency and reproducibility of connectivity research and discuss situations where decisions may require forgoing sophistication for more simple approaches.

Temporal variations in female moose responses to roads and logging in the absence of wolves

Animal movements, needed to acquire food resources, avoid predation risk, and find breeding partners, are influenced by annual and circadian cycles. Decisions related to movement reflect a quest to maximize benefits while limiting costs, especially in heterogeneous landscapes. Predation by wolves (Canis lupus) has been identified as the major driver of moose (Alces alces) habitat selection patterns, and linear features have been shown to increase wolf efficiency to travel, hunt, and kill prey. However, few studies have described moose behavioral response to roads and logging in Canada in the absence of wolves. We thus characterized temporal changes (i.e., day phases and biological periods) in eastern moose (Alces alces americana) habitat selection and space use patterns near a road network in a wolf-free area located south of the St. Lawrence River (eastern Canada). We used telemetry data collected on 18 females between 2017 and 2019 to build resource selection functions and mixed linear regressions to explain variations in habitat selection patterns, home-range size, and movement rates. Female moose selected forest stands providing forage when movement was not impeded by snow cover (i.e., spring/green-up, summer/rearing, fall/rut) and stands offering protection against incidental predation during calving. In winter, home-range size decreased with an increasing proportion of stands providing food and shelter against harsh weather, limiting the energetic costs associated with movement. Our results reaffirmed the year-round aversive effect of roads, even in the absence of wolves, but the magnitude of this avoidance differed between day phases, being lower during the "dusk-night-dawn" phase, perhaps due to a lower level of human activity on and near roads. Female moose behavior in our study area was similar to what was observed in landscapes where moose and wolves cohabit, suggesting that the risk associated with humans, perceived as another type of predator, and with incidental predators (coyote Canis latrans, black bear Ursus americanus), equates that of wolf predation in heavily managed landscapes.

Multi-generation genetic contributions of immigrants reveal cryptic elevated and sex-biased effective gene flow within a natural meta-population

Impacts of immigration on micro-evolution and population dynamics fundamentally depend on net rates and forms of resulting gene flow into recipient populations. Yet, the degrees to which observed rates and sex ratios of physical immigration translate into multi-generational genetic legacies have not been explicitly quantified in natural meta-populations, precluding inference on how movements translate into effective gene flow and eco-evolutionary outcomes. Our analyses of three decades of complete song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) pedigree data show that multi-generational genetic contributions from regular natural immigrants substantially exceeded those from contemporary natives, consistent with heterosis-enhanced introgression. However, while contributions from female immigrants exceeded those from female natives by up to three-fold, male immigrants' lineages typically went locally extinct soon after arriving. Both the overall magnitude, and the degree of female bias, of effective gene flow therefore greatly exceeded those which would be inferred from observed physical arrivals, altering multiple eco-evolutionary implications of immigration.

Validating graph-based connectivity models with independent presence-absence and genetic data sets

Habitat connectivity is a key objective of current conservation policies and is commonly modeled by landscape graphs (i.e., sets of habitat patches [nodes] connected by potential dispersal paths [links]). These graphs are often built based on expert opinion or species distribution models (SDMs) and therefore lack empirical validation from data more closely reflecting functional connectivity. Accordingly, we tested whether landscape graphs reflect how habitat connectivity influences gene flow, which is one of the main ecoevolutionary processes. To that purpose, we modeled the habitat network of a forest bird (plumbeous warbler [Setophaga plumbea]) on Guadeloupe with graphs based on expert opinion, Jacobs' specialization indices, and an SDM. We used genetic data (712 birds from 27 populations) to compute local genetic indices and pairwise genetic distances. Finally, we assessed the relationships between genetic distances or indices and cost distances or connectivity metrics with maximum-likelihood population-effects distance models and Spearman correlations between metrics. Overall, the landscape graphs reliably reflected the influence of connectivity on population genetic structure; validation R² was up to 0.30 and correlation coefficients were up to 0.71. Yet, the relationship among graph ecological relevance, data requirements, and construction and analysis methods was not straightforward because the graph based on the most complex construction method (species distribution modeling) sometimes had less ecological relevance than the others. Cross-validation methods and sensitivity analyzes allowed us to make the advantages and limitations of each construction method spatially explicit. We confirmed the relevance of landscape graphs for conservation modeling but recommend a case-specific consideration of the cost-effectiveness of their construction methods. We hope the replication of independent validation approaches across species and landscapes will strengthen the ecological relevance of connectivity models.

Wild snapdragon plant pedigree sheds light on limited connectivity enhanced by higher migrant reproductive success in a fragmented landscape

Background: In contrast with historical knowledge, a recent view posits that a non-negligible proportion of populations thrive in a fragmented landscape. One underlying mechanism is the maintenance of functional connectivity, i.e., the net flow of individuals or their genes moving among suitable habitat patches. Alternatively, functional connectivity might be typically limited but enhanced by a higher reproductive success of migrants. Methods: We tested for this hypothesis in wild snapdragon plants inhabiting six patches separated by seawater in a fragmented Mediterranean scrubland landscape. We reconstructed their pedigree by using a parentage assignment method based on microsatellite genetic markers. We then estimated functional connectivity and the reproductive success of plants resulting from between-patch dispersal events. Results: We found that wild snapdragon plants thrived in this fragmented landscape, although functional connectivity between habitat patches was low (i.e. 2.9%). The progeny resulting from between-patch dispersal events had a higher reproductive success than residents. Conclusion: Our findings imply that low functional connectivity in a fragmented landscapes may have been enhanced by higher reproductive success after migration. This original mechanisms might be partly compensating the negative impact of fragmentation.

As the Goose Flies: Migration Routes and Timing Influence Patterns of Genetic Diversity in a Circumpolar Migratory Herbivore

Migration schedules and the timing of other annual events (e.g., pair formation and molt) can affect the distribution of genetic diversity as much as where these events occur. The greater white-fronted goose (Anser albifrons) is a circumpolar goose species, exhibiting temporal and spatial variation of events among populations during the annual cycle. Previous range-wide genetic assessments of the nuclear genome based on eight microsatellite loci suggest a single, largely panmictic population despite up to five subspecies currently recognized based on phenotypic differences. We used double digest restriction-site associated DNA (ddRAD-seq) and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence data to re-evaluate estimates of spatial genomic structure and to characterize how past and present processes have shaped the patterns of genetic diversity and connectivity across the Arctic and subarctic. We uncovered previously undetected inter-population differentiation with genetic clusters corresponding to sampling locales associated with current management groups. We further observed subtle genetic clustering within each management unit that can be at least partially explained by the timing and directionality of migration events along with other behaviors during the annual cycle. The Tule Goose (A. a. elgasi) and Greenland subspecies (A. a. flavirostris) showed the highest level of divergence among all sampling locales investigated. The recovery of previously undetected broad and fine-scale spatial structure suggests that the strong cultural transmission of migratory behavior restricts gene flow across portions of the species’ range. Our data further highlight the importance of re-evaluating previous assessments conducted based on a small number of highly variable genetic markers in phenotypically diverse species.

Integrating data types to estimate spatial patterns of avian migration across the Western Hemisphere

For many avian species, spatial migration patterns remain largely undescribed, especially across hemispheric extents. Recent advancements in tracking technologies and high-resolution species distribution models (i.e., eBird Status and Trends products) provide new insights into migratory bird movements and offer a promising opportunity for integrating independent data sources to describe avian migration. Here, we present a three-stage modeling framework for estimating spatial patterns of avian migration. First, we integrate tracking and band re-encounter data to quantify migratory connectivity, defined as the relative proportions of individuals migrating between breeding and nonbreeding regions. Next, we use estimated connectivity proportions along with eBird occurrence probabilities to produce probabilistic least-cost path (LCP) indices. In a final step, we use generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) both to evaluate the ability of LCP indices to accurately predict (i.e., as a covariate) observed locations derived from tracking and band re-encounter data sets versus pseudo-absence locations during migratory periods and to create a fully integrated (i.e., eBird occurrence, LCP, and tracking/band re-encounter data) spatial prediction index for mapping species-specific seasonal migrations. To illustrate this approach, we apply this framework to describe seasonal migrations of 12 bird species across the Western Hemisphere during pre- and postbreeding migratory periods (i.e., spring and fall, respectively). We found that including LCP indices with eBird occurrence in GAMMs generally improved the ability to accurately predict observed migratory locations compared to models with eBird occurrence alone. Using three performance metrics, the eBird + LCP model demonstrated equivalent or superior fit relative to the eBird-only model for 22 of 24 species-season GAMMs. In particular, the integrated index filled in spatial gaps for species with over-water movements and those that migrated over land where there were few eBird sightings and, thus, low predictive ability of eBird occurrence probabilities (e.g., Amazonian rainforest in South America). This methodology of combining individual-based seasonal movement data with temporally dynamic species distribution models provides a comprehensive approach to integrating multiple data types to describe broad-scale spatial patterns of animal movement. Further development and customization of this approach will continue to advance knowledge about the full annual cycle and conservation of migratory birds.

A Validation Procedure for Ecological Corridor Locations

Connectivity conservation analysis is based on a wide range of approaches designed to pinpoint key ecological corridors in order to maintain multispecies flows. However, the lack of validation procedures with accessible data prevents one from evaluating the accuracy of ecological corridor locations. We propose a new validation procedure to evaluate the accuracy of ecological corridor locations in landscape connectivity approaches. The ability of the procedure to properly rank the accuracy of different landscape connectivity approaches was illustrated in a study case. Maxent model and circuit theory were used to locate ecological corridors for forest bird species, following three approaches based on land cover, umbrella species and multispecies presence data. The validation procedure was used to compare the three approaches. Our validation procedure ranked the three approaches as expected, considering that accuracy in locating ecological corridors is related to the biological realism of calibration data. The corridors modelled were more accurate with species presence data (umbrella and multispecies approaches) compared to land cover proxy (habitat-based approach). These results confirm the quality of the validation procedure. Our validation procedure can be used to: (1) evaluate the accuracy of the location of ecological corridors; (2) select the best approach to locate ecological corridors, and (3) validate the underlying assumptions of landscape connectivity approaches (e.g., dispersal and matrix resistance values).

The role of habitat configuration in shaping animal population processes: a framework to generate quantitative predictions

By shaping where individuals move, habitat configuration can fundamentally structure animal populations. Yet, we currently lack a framework for generating quantitative predictions about the role of habitat configuration in modulating population outcomes. To address this gap, we propose a modelling framework inspired by studies using networks to characterize habitat connectivity. We first define animal habitat networks, explain how they can integrate information about the different configurational features of animal habitats, and highlight the need for a bottom–up generative model that can depict realistic variations in habitat potential connectivity. Second, we describe a model for simulating animal habitat networks (available in the R package AnimalHabitatNetwork), and demonstrate its ability to generate alternative habitat configurations based on empirical data, which forms the basis for exploring the consequences of alternative habitat structures. Finally, we lay out three key research questions and demonstrate how our framework can address them. By simulating the spread of a pathogen within a population, we show how transmission properties can be impacted by both local potential connectivity and landscape-level characteristics of habitats. Our study highlights the importance of considering the underlying habitat configuration in studies linking social structure with population-level outcomes.

The demographic contributions of connectivity versus local dynamics to population growth of an endangered bird

Conservation and management increasingly focus on connectivity, because connectivity driven by variation in immigration rates across landscapes is thought to be crucial for maintaining local population and metapopulation persistence. Yet, efforts to quantify the relative role of immigration on population growth across the entire range of species and over time have been lacking. We assessed whether immigration limited local and range-wide population growth of the endangered snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis in Florida, USA, over 18 years using multi-state, reverse-time modelling that accounts for imperfect detection of individuals and unobservable states. Demographic contributions of immigration varied depending on the dynamics and geographic position of the local populations, were scale-dependent and changed over time. By comparing the relative contributions of immigration versus local demography for periods of significant change in local abundance, we found empirical evidence for a disproportionately large role of immigration in facilitating population growth of a centrally located population-a connectivity 'hub'. The importance of connectivity changed depending of the spatial scale considered, such that immigration was a more important driver of population growth at small versus large spatial scales. Furthermore, the contribution of immigration was much greater during time periods when local population size was small, emphasizing abundance-dependent rescue effects. Our findings suggest that efforts aimed at improving local breeding habitat will likely be most effective at increasing snail kite population growth. More broadly, our results provide much needed information on the role of connectivity for population growth, suggesting that connectivity conservation may have the greatest benefits when efforts focus on centrally located habitat patches and small populations. Furthermore, our results highlight that connectivity is highly dynamic over time and that interpreting the effects of connectivity at local scales may not transfer to region-wide dynamics.

Landscape genetics of wolverines (Gulo gulo): scale-dependent effects of bioclimatic, topographic, and anthropogenic variables

Climate change can have particularly severe consequences for high-elevation species that are well-adapted to long-lasting snow conditions within their habitats. One such species is the wolverine, Gulo gulo, with several studies showing a strong, year-round association of the species with the area defined by persistent spring snow cover. This bioclimatic niche also predicts successful dispersal paths for wolverines in the contiguous United States, where the species shows low levels of genetic exchange and low effective population size. Here, we assess the influence of additional climatic, vegetative, topographic, and anthropogenic, variables on wolverine genetic structure in this region using a multivariate, multiscale, landscape genetic approach. This approach allows us to detect landscape-genetic relationships both due to typical, small-scale genetic exchange within habitat, as well as exceptional, long-distance dispersal among habitats. Results suggest that a combination of snow depth, terrain ruggedness, and housing density, best predict gene flow in wolverines, and that the relative importance of variables is scale-dependent. Environmental variables (i.e., isolation-by-resistance, IBR) were responsible for 79% of the explained variation at small scales (i.e., up to ~230 km), and 65% at broad scales (i.e., beyond ~420 km). In contrast, a null model based on only space (i.e., isolation-by-distance, IBD) accounted only for 17% and 11% of the variation at small and broad scales, respectively. Snow depth was the most important variable for predicting genetic structures overall, and at small scales, where it contributed 43% to the variance explained. At broad spatial scales, housing density and terrain ruggedness were most important with contributions to explained variation of 55% and 25%, respectively. While the small-scale analysis most likely captures gene flow within typical wolverine habitat complexes, the broad-scale analysis reflects long-distance dispersal across areas not typically inhabited by wolverines. These findings help to refine our understanding of the processes shaping wolverine genetic structure, which is important for maintaining and improving functional connectivity among remaining wolverine populations.

Effectiveness of Panama as an intercontinental land bridge for large mammals

Habitat fragmentation is a primary driver of wildlife loss, and establishment of biological corridors is a common strategy to mitigate this problem. A flagship example is the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (MBC), which aims to connect protected forest areas between Mexico and Panama to allow dispersal and gene flow of forest organisms. Because forests across Central America have continued to degrade, the functioning of the MBC has been questioned, but reliable estimates of species occurrence were unavailable. Large mammals are suitable indicators of forest functioning, so we assessed their conservation status across the Isthmus of Panama, the narrowest section of the MBC. We used large-scale camera-trap surveys and hierarchical multispecies occupancy models in a Bayesian framework to estimate the occupancy of 9 medium to large mammals and developed an occupancy-weighted connectivity metric to evaluate species-specific functional connectivity. White-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari), jaguar (Panthera onca), giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla), white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), and tapir (Tapirus bairdii) had low expected occupancy along the MBC in Panama. Puma (Puma concolor), red brocket deer (Mazama temama), ocelot (Leopardus pardalis), and collared peccary (Pecari tajacu), which are more adaptable, had higher occupancy, even in areas with low forest cover near infrastructure. However, the majority of species were subject to ≥1 gap that was larger than their known dispersal distances, suggesting poor connectivity along the MBC in Panama. Based on our results, forests in Darien, Donoso-Santa Fe, and La Amistad International Park are critical for survival of large terrestrial mammals in Panama and 2 areas need restoration.

Towards the restoration of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor for large mammals in Panama: comparing multi-species occupancy to movement models

BACKGROUND

Habitat fragmentation is a primary driver of wildlife loss, and the establishment of biological corridors is a conservation strategy to mitigate this problem. Identifying areas with high potential functional connectivity typically relies on the assessment of landscape resistance to movement. Many modeling approaches exist to estimate resistance surfaces but to date only a handful of studies compared the outputs resulting from different methods. Moreover, as many species are threatened by fragmentation, effective biodiversity conservation requires that corridors simultaneously meet the needs of multiple species. While many corridor planning initiatives focus on single species, we here used a combination of data types and analytical approaches to identify and compare corridors for several large mammal species within the Panama portion of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor.

METHODS

We divided a large mammal assemblage into two groups depending on the species sensitivity to habitat disturbance. We subsequently used cost-distance methods to produce multi-species corridors which were modeled on the basis of (i) occupancy of nine species derived from camera trapping data collected across Panama, and (ii) step selection functions based on GPS telemetry data from white-lipped peccary Tayassu pecari, puma Puma concolor, and ocelot Leopardus pardalis. In addition to different data sources and species groups, we also used different transformation curves to convert occupancy and step-selection results into landscape resistance values.

RESULTS

Corridors modeled differed between sensitive and tolerant species, between the data sets, and between the transformation curves. There were more corridors identified for tolerant species than for sensitive species. For tolerant species, several corridors developed with occupancy data overlapped with corridors produced with step selection functions, but this was not the case for sensitive species.

CONCLUSION

Our study represents the first comparison of multispecies corridors parametrized with step selection functions versus occupancy models. Given the wide variability in output corridors, our findings underscore the need to consider the ecological requirements of several species. Our results also suggest that occupancy models can be used for estimating connectivity of generalist species. Finally, this effort allowed to identify important corridors within the MBC (i) at a country scale and (ii) for several species simultaneously to accurately inform the local authorities in conservation planning. The approach we present is reproducible in other sites and/or for other species.

Towards a unified framework for connectivity that disentangles movement and mortality in space and time

Predicting connectivity, or how landscapes alter movement, is essential for understanding the scope for species persistence with environmental change. Although it is well known that movement is risky, connectivity modelling often conflates behavioural responses to the matrix through which animals disperse with mortality risk. We derive new connectivity models using random walk theory, based on the concept of spatial absorbing Markov chains. These models decompose the role of matrix on movement behaviour and mortality risk, can incorporate species distribution to predict the amount of flow, and provide both short- and long-term analytical solutions for multiple connectivity metrics. We validate the framework using data on movement of an insect herbivore in 15 experimental landscapes. Our results demonstrate that disentangling the roles of movement behaviour and mortality risk is fundamental to accurately interpreting landscape connectivity, and that spatial absorbing Markov chains provide a generalisable and powerful framework with which to do so.

Isolating the roles of movement and reproduction on effective connectivity alters conservation priorities for an endangered bird

Movement is important for ecological and evolutionary theory as well as connectivity conservation, which is increasingly critical for species responding to environmental change. Key ecological and evolutionary outcomes of movement, such as population growth and gene flow, require effective dispersal: movement that is followed by successful reproduction. However, the relative roles of movement and postmovement reproduction for effective dispersal and connectivity remain unclear. Here we isolate the contributions of movement and immigrant reproduction to effective dispersal and connectivity across the entire breeding range of an endangered raptor, the snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus). To do so, we unite mark-resight data on movement and reproduction across 9 years and 27 breeding patches with an integrated model that decomposes effective dispersal into its hierarchical levels of movement, postmovement breeding attempt, and postmovement reproductive success. We found that immigrant reproduction limits effective dispersal more than movement for this endangered species, demonstrating that even highly mobile species may have limited effective connectivity due to reduced immigrant reproduction. We found different environmental limitations for the reproductive component of effective dispersal compared with movement, indicating that different conservation strategies may be needed when promoting effective dispersal rather than movement alone. We also demonstrate that considering immigrant reproduction, rather than movement alone, alters which patches are the most essential for connectivity, thereby changing conservation priorities. These results challenge the assumption that understanding movement alone is sufficient to infer connectivity and highlight that connectivity conservation may require not only fostering movement but also successful reproduction of immigrants.