Genomic evidence of survival near ice sheet margins for some, but not all, North American trees

Molecular phylogeography and historical demography of a widespread herbaceous species from eastern North America, Podophyllum peltatum

PREMISE

Glacial/interglacial cycles and topographic complexity are both considered to have shaped today's diverse phylogeographic patterns of taxa from unglaciated eastern North America (ENA). However, few studies have focused on the phylogeography and population dynamics of wide-ranging ENA herbaceous species occurring in forest understory habitat. We examined the phylogeographic pattern and evolutionary history of Podophyllum peltatum L., a widely distributed herb inhabiting deciduous forests of ENA.

METHODS

Using chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) sequences and nuclear microsatellite loci, we investigated the population structure and genetic diversity of the species. Molecular dating, demographic history analyses, and ecological niche modeling were also performed to illustrate the phylogeographic patterns.

RESULTS

Our cpDNA results identified three main groups that are largely congruent with boundaries along the Appalachian Mountains and the Mississippi River, two major geographic barriers in ENA. Populations located to the east of the Appalachians and along the central Appalachians exhibited relatively higher levels of genetic diversity. Extant lineages may have diverged during the late Miocene, and range expansions of different groups may have happened during the Pleistocene glacial/interglacial cycles.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that geographic barriers may have started to facilitate the population divergence in P. peltatum before the Pleistocene. Persistence in multiple refugia, including areas around the central Appalachians during the Quaternary glacial period, and subsequent expansions under hospitable climatic condition, especially westward expansion, are likely responsible for the species' contemporary genetic structure and phylogeographic pattern.

Genetic evidence for widespread population size expansion in North American boreal birds prior to the Last Glacial Maximum

Pleistocene climate cycles are well documented to have shaped contemporary species distributions and genetic diversity. Northward range expansions in response to deglaciation following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; approximately 21 000 years ago) are surmised to have led to population size expansions in terrestrial taxa and changes in seasonal migratory behaviour. Recent findings, however, suggest that some northern temperate populations may have been more stable than expected through the LGM. We modelled the demographic history of 19 co-distributed boreal-breeding North American bird species from full mitochondrial gene sets and species-specific molecular rates. We used these demographic reconstructions to test how species with different migratory strategies were affected by glacial cycles. Our results suggest that effective population sizes increased in response to Pleistocene deglaciation earlier than the LGM, whereas genetic diversity was maintained throughout the LGM despite shifts in geographical range. We conclude that glacial cycles prior to the LGM have most strongly shaped contemporary genetic diversity in these species. We did not find a relationship between historic population dynamics and migratory strategy, contributing to growing evidence that major switches in migratory strategy during the LGM are unnecessary to explain contemporary migratory patterns.

Process-explicit models reveal the structure and dynamics of biodiversity patterns

With ever-growing data availability and computational power at our disposal, we now have the capacity to use process-explicit models more widely to reveal the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms responsible for spatiotemporal patterns of biodiversity. Most research questions focused on the distribution of diversity cannot be answered experimentally, because many important environmental drivers and biological constraints operate at large spatiotemporal scales. However, we can encode proposed mechanisms into models, observe the patterns they produce in virtual environments, and validate these patterns against real-world data or theoretical expectations. This approach can advance understanding of generalizable mechanisms responsible for the distributions of organisms, communities, and ecosystems in space and time, advancing basic and applied science. We review recent developments in process-explicit models and how they have improved knowledge of the distribution and dynamics of life on Earth, enabling biodiversity to be better understood and managed through a deeper recognition of the processes that shape genetic, species, and ecosystem diversity.

Process-explicit models reveal the structure and dynamics of biodiversity patterns

With ever-growing data availability and computational power at our disposal, we now have the capacity to use process-explicit models more widely to reveal the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms responsible for spatiotemporal patterns of biodiversity. Most research questions focused on the distribution of diversity cannot be answered experimentally, because many important environmental drivers and biological constraints operate at large spatiotemporal scales. However, we can encode proposed mechanisms into models, observe the patterns they produce in virtual environments, and validate these patterns against real-world data or theoretical expectations. This approach can advance understanding of generalizable mechanisms responsible for the distributions of organisms, communities, and ecosystems in space and time, advancing basic and applied science. We review recent developments in process-explicit models and how they have improved knowledge of the distribution and dynamics of life on Earth, enabling biodiversity to be better understood and managed through a deeper recognition of the processes that shape genetic, species, and ecosystem diversity.

Eco-evolutionary causes and consequences of rarity in plants: a meta-analysis

Species differ dramatically in their prevalence in the natural world, with many species characterized as rare due to restricted geographic distribution, low local abundance and/or habitat specialization. We investigated the ecoevolutionary causes and consequences of rarity with phylogenetically controlled metaanalyses of population genetic diversity, fitness and functional traits in rare and common congeneric plant species. Our syntheses included 252 rare species and 267 common congeners reported in 153 peer-reviewed articles published from 1978 to 2020 and one manuscript in press. Rare species have reduced population genetic diversity, depressed fitness and smaller reproductive structures than common congeners. Rare species also could suffer from inbreeding depression and reduced fertilization efficiency. By limiting their capacity to adapt and migrate, these characteristics could influence contemporary patterns of rarity and increase the susceptibility of rare species to rapid environmental change. We recommend that future studies present more nuanced data on the extent of rarity in focal species, expose rare and common species to ecologically relevant treatments, including reciprocal transplants, and conduct quantitative genetic and population genomic analyses across a greater array of systems. This research could elucidate the processes that contribute to rarity and generate robust predictions of extinction risks under global change.

Postglacial colonization in the Great Lakes Region by the white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus): conflicts between genomic and field data

For regions that were covered by ice during the Pleistocene glaciations, species must have emigrated from unglaciated regions. However, it can be difficult to discern when and from what ancestral source populations such expansions took place, especially since warming climates introduce the possibility of very recent expansions. For example, in the Great Lakes region, pronounced climatic change includes past glaciations as well as recent, rapid warming. Here we evaluate different expansion hypotheses with a genomic study of the white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus noveboracensis), which is one of the most common mammals throughout the Great Lakes region. Ecological surveys coupled with historical museum records suggest a recent range expansion of P. leucopus associated with the warming climate over the last decades. These detailed records have yet to be complemented by genomic data that provide the requisite resolution for detecting recent expansion, although some mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences have suggested possible hypotheses about the geography of expansion. With more than 7,000 loci generated using RADseq, we evaluate support for multiple hypotheses of a geographic expansion in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan (UP). Analysis of a single random single-nucleotide polymorphism per locus revealed a fine-scale population structure separating the Lower Peninsula (LP) population from all other populations in the UP. We also detected a genetic structure that reflects an evolutionary history of postglacial colonization from two different origins into the UP, one coming from the LP and one coming from the west. Instead of supporting a climate-driven range expansion, as suggested by field surveys, our results support more ancient postglacial colonization of the UP from two different ancestral sources. With these results, we offer new insights about P. leucopus geographic expansion history, as well as a more general phylogeographic framework for testing range shifts in the Great Lakes region.

Genetic diversity in North American Cercis Canadensis reveals an ancient population bottleneck that originated after the last glacial maximum

Understanding of the present-day genetic diversity, population structure, and evolutionary history of tree species can inform resource management and conservation activities, including response to pressures presented by a changing climate. Cercis canadensis (Eastern Redbud) is an economically valuable understory tree species native to the United States (U.S.) that is also important for forest ecosystem and wildlife health. Here, we document and explain the population genetics and evolutionary history of this deciduous tree species across its distributed range. In this study, we used twelve microsatellite markers to investigate 691 wild-type trees sampled at 74 collection sites from 23 Eastern U.S. states. High genetic diversity and limited gene flow were revealed in wild, natural stands of C. canadensis with populations that are explained by two major genetic clusters. These findings indicate that an ancient population bottleneck occurred coinciding with the last glacial maximum (LGM) in North America. The structure in current populations likely originated from an ancient population in the eastern U.S. that survived LGM and then later diverged into two contemporary clusters. Data suggests that populations have expanded since the last glaciation event from one into several post-glacial refugia that now occupy this species’ current geographic range. Our enhanced understanding benchmarks the genetic variation preserved within this species and can direct future efforts in conservation, and resource utilization of adaptively resilient populations that present the greatest genetic and structural diversity.

Evolution of Castanea in North America: restriction-site-associated DNA sequencing and ecological modeling reveal a history of radiation, range shifts, and disease

PREMISE

Although chestnuts and chinquapins are some of the best known and most widely loved of any plants in North America, relatively little genomic sequencing has been done, and much is still unknown about their evolution.

METHODS

We used double-digest restriction-site-associated DNA (ddRAD) sequencing data to infer the species-level phylogeny for Castanea and assess the phylogeography of the North American species using samples collected from populations that span the full extent of the species' ranges. We also constructed species distribution models using digitized herbarium specimens and observational data from field surveys.

RESULTS

We identified strong population structure within Castanea dentata (American chestnut) that reflects a stepwise northern migration since the last glacial maximum. Our species distribution models further confirmed this scenario and matched closely with the Castanea fossil pollen record. We also found significant structure within the Castanea pumila lineage, most notably a genetic cluster that corresponds to the frequently recognized Castanea pumila var. ozarkensis.

CONCLUSIONS

The two North American Castanea species have contrasting patterns of population structure, but each is typical of plant phylogeography in North America. Within the C. pumila complex, we found novel genetic structure that provides new insights about C. pumila taxonomy. Our results also identified a series of distinctive populations that will be valuable in ongoing efforts to conserve and restore chestnuts and chinquapins in North America.

Relationships between climate and phylogenetic community structure of fossil pollen assemblages are not constant during the last deglaciation

Disentangling the influence of environmental drivers on community assembly is important to understand how multiple processes influence biodiversity patterns and can inform understanding of ecological responses to climate change. Phylogenetic Community Structure (PCS) is increasingly used in community assembly studies to incorporate evolutionary perspectives and as a proxy for trait (dis)similarity within communities. Studies often assume a stationary relationship between PCS and climate, though few studies have tested this assumption over long time periods with concurrent community data. We estimated two PCS metrics-Nearest Taxon Index (NTI) and Net Relatedness index (NRI)-of fossil pollen assemblages of Angiosperms in eastern North America over the last 21 ka BP at 1 ka intervals. We analyzed spatiotemporal relationships between PCS and seven climate variables, evaluated the potential impact of deglaciation on PCS, and tested for the stability of climate-PCS relationships through time. The broad scale geographic patterns of PCS remained largely stable across time, with overdispersion tending to be most prominent in the central and southern portion of the study area and clustering dominating at the longitudinal extremes. Most importantly, we found that significant relationships between climate variables and PCS (slope) were not constant as climate changed during the last deglaciation and new ice-free regions were colonized. We also found weak, but significant relationships between both PCS metrics (i.e., NTI and NRI) and climate and time-since-deglaciation that also varied through time. Overall, our results suggest that (1) PCS of fossil Angiosperm assemblages during the last 21ka BP have had largely constant spatial patterns, but (2) temporal variability in the relationships between PCS and climate brings into question their usefulness in predictive modeling of community assembly.

Phylogenetic Endemism Hotspots of North American Birds Are Associated With Warm Temperatures and Long- and Short-Term Climate Stability

Human activities have dramatically altered the distribution and abundance of species, and our impacts are likely to increase in the near future. Conservation efforts are typically faced with scarce resources, forcing us to prioritize areas based in part on estimates of their conservation value. Two major factors in conservation value are a species uniqueness and its extinction risk. Though these ideas are multidimensional, one important component of uniqueness is evolutionary distinctness, while risk is strongly related to geographic range size. These components are combined in an assemblage-level measure called phylogenetic endemism (PE), which measures the degree to which the species in an assemblage are small-ranged and phylogenetically distinct. Broad-scale patterns and correlates of PE are becoming better known for a variety of groups, and have been shown to depend on current climate, geographic isolation and long-term climate stability. Human impacts (e.g., land cover changes), are likely to shape PE as well, though the coarse resolution of most previous studies may make this difficult to detect. Overall, PE patterns at fine spatial and temporal resolutions are not well understood. Here, we fill this gap using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. These data comprise a long-term annual record with fine spatial resolution and a near-continental extent. We assess geographic patterns and trends in PE, and relate these to a range of putative predictor variables including measures of current climate, land cover, long-term and recent climate change. Bird PE is concentrated in three main hotspots: the west coast, the southeast and south-central Canada east of the Rockies. High PE values tended to occur in regions with high temperatures and stability in temperature, both in the long (21,000 year) and short (35 year) time scales. PE patterns are driven more strongly by patterns of range size than phylogenetic distinctiveness, and are trending gradually upward, driven by increasingly frequent sightings of small-ranged species. These results indicate the importance of climate stability on multiple time scales in influencing endemism patterns and suggest a surprisingly minor influence of direct human land use. The increase in PE through time may reflect successful conservation efforts that have led to population recoveries of some small-ranged species.

Westward range expansion from middle latitudes explains the Mississippi River discontinuity in a forest herb of eastern North America

It is often expected that temperate plants have expanded their geographical ranges northward from primarily southern refugia. Evidence for this hypothesis is mixed in eastern North American species, and there is increasing support for colonization from middle latitudes. We studied genome-wide patterns of variation in RADseq loci to test hypotheses concerning range expansion in a North American forest herb (Campanula americana). First, spatial patterns of genetic differentiation were determined. Then phylogenetic relationships and divergence times were estimated. Spatial signatures of genetic drift were also studied to identify the directionality of recent range expansion and its geographical origins. Finally, spatially explicit scenarios for the spread of plants across the landscape were compared, using variation in the population mutation parameter and Tajima's D. We found strong longitudinal subdivision, with populations clustering into groups west and east of the Mississippi River. While the southeastern region was probably part of a diverse Pleistocene refugium, there is little evidence that range expansion involved founders from these southern locales. Instead, declines in genetic diversity and the loss of rare alleles support a westward colonization wave from a middle latitude refugium near the southern Appalachian Mountains, with subsequent expansion from a Pleistocene staging ground in the Mississippi River Valley (0.51-1.27 million years ago). These analyses implicate stepping stone colonization from middle latitudes as an important mechanism of species range expansion in eastern North America. This study further demonstrates the utility of population genetics as a tool to infer the routes travelled by organisms during geographical range expansion.

Whole-exome sequencing reveals a long-term decline in effective population size of red spruce (Picea rubens)

Understanding the factors influencing the current distribution of genetic diversity across a species range is one of the main questions of evolutionary biology, especially given the increasing threat to biodiversity posed by climate change. Historical demographic processes such as population expansion or bottlenecks and decline are known to exert a predominant influence on past and current levels of genetic diversity, and revealing this demo-genetic history can have immediate conservation implications. We used a whole-exome capture sequencing approach to analyze polymorphism across the gene space of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.), an endemic and emblematic tree species of eastern North America high-elevation forests that are facing the combined threat of global warming and increasing human activities. We sampled a total of 340 individuals, including populations from the current core of the range in northeastern USA and southeastern Canada and from the southern portions of its range along the Appalachian Mountains, where populations occur as highly fragmented mountaintop "sky islands." Exome capture baits were designed from the closely relative white spruce (P. glauca Voss) transcriptome, and sequencing successfully captured most regions on or near our target genes, resulting in the generation of a new and expansive genomic resource for studying standing genetic variation in red spruce applicable to its conservation. Our results, based on over 2 million exome-derived variants, indicate that red spruce is structured into three distinct ancestry groups that occupy different geographic regions of its highly fragmented range. Moreover, these groups show small Ne , with a temporal history of sustained population decline that has been ongoing for thousands (or even hundreds of thousands) of years. These results demonstrate the broad potential of genomic studies for revealing details of the demographic history that can inform management and conservation efforts of nonmodel species with active restoration programs, such as red spruce.

Dispersal barriers and opportunities drive multiple levels of phylogeographic concordance in the Southern Alps of New Zealand

Phylogeographic concordance, or the sharing of phylogeographic patterns among codistributed species, suggests similar responses to topography or climatic history. While the orientation and timing of breaks between lineages are routinely compared, spatial dynamics within regions occupied by individual lineages provide a second opportunity for comparing responses to past events. In environments with complex topography and glacial history, such as New Zealand's South Island, geographically nested comparisons can identify the processes leading to phylogeographic concordance between and within regional genomic clusters. Here, we used single nucleotide polymorphisms (obtained via ddRADseq) for two codistributed forest beetle species, Agyrtodes labralis (Leiodidae) and Brachynopus scutellaris (Staphylinidae), to evaluate the role of climate change and topography in shaping phylogeographic concordance at two, nested spatial scales: do species diverge over the same geographic barriers, with similar divergence times? And within regions delimited by these breaks, do species share similar spatial dynamics of directional expansion or isolation-by-distance? We found greater congruence of phylogeographic breaks between regions divided by the strongest dispersal barriers (i.e., the Southern Alps). However, these shared breaks were not indicative of shared spatial dynamics within the regions they delimit, and the most similar spatial dynamics between species occurred within regions with the strongest gradients in historical climatic stability. Our results indicate that lack of concordance as traditionally detected by lineage turnover does not rule out the possibility of shared histories, and variation in the presence and type of concordance may provide insights into the different processes shaping phylogeographic patterns across geologically dynamic regions.

Plant adaptation to climate change - Where are we?

Climate change poses critical challenges for population persistence in natural communities, agriculture and environmental sustainability, and food security. In this review, we discuss recent progress in climatic adaptation in plants. We evaluate whether climate change exerts novel selection and disrupts local adaptation, whether gene flow can facilitate adaptive responses to climate change, and if adaptive phenotypic plasticity could sustain populations in the short term. Furthermore, we discuss how climate change influences species interactions. Through a more in-depth understanding of these eco-evolutionary dynamics, we will increase our capacity to predict the adaptive potential of plants under climate change. In addition, we review studies that dissect the genetic basis of plant adaptation to climate change. Finally, we highlight key research gaps, ranging from validating gene function, to elucidating molecular mechanisms, expanding research systems from model species to other natural species, testing the fitness consequences of alleles in natural environments, and designing multifactorial studies that more closely reflect the complex and interactive effects of multiple climate change factors. By leveraging interdisciplinary tools (e.g., cutting-edge omics toolkits, novel ecological strategies, newly-developed genome editing technology), researchers can more accurately predict the probability that species can persist through this rapid and intense period of environmental change, as well as cultivate crops to withstand climate change, and conserve biodiversity in natural systems.

Small spaces, big impacts: contributions of micro-environmental variation to population persistence under climate change

Individuals within natural populations can experience very different abiotic and biotic conditions across small spatial scales owing to microtopography and other micro-environmental gradients. Ecological and evolutionary studies often ignore the effects of micro-environment on plant population and community dynamics. Here, we explore the extent to which fine-grained variation in abiotic and biotic conditions contributes to within-population variation in trait expression and genetic diversity in natural plant populations. Furthermore, we consider whether benign microhabitats could buffer local populations of some plant species from abiotic stresses imposed by rapid anthropogenic climate change. If microrefugia sustain local populations and communities in the short term, other eco-evolutionary processes, such as gene flow and adaptation, could enhance population stability in the longer term. We caution, however, that local populations may still decline in size as they contract into rare microhabitats and microrefugia. We encourage future research that explicitly examines the role of the micro-environment in maintaining genetic variation within local populations, favouring the evolution of phenotypic plasticity at local scales and enhancing population persistence under global change.

Phylogeography and the Evolutionary History of Sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.): Wild Diversity and the Dynamics of Domestication

Patterns of genetic variation in crops are the result of selection and demographic changes that occurred during their domestication and improvement. In many cases, we have an incomplete picture of the origin of crops in the context of their wild progenitors, particularly with regard to the processes producing observed levels of standing genetic variation. Here, we analyzed sequence diversity in cultivated sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) and its wild progenitor (common sunflower, also H. annuus) to reconstruct phylogeographic relationships and population genetic/demographic patterns across sunflower. In common sunflower, south-north patterns in the distribution of nucleotide diversity and lineage splitting indicate a history of rapid postglacial range expansion from southern refugia. Cultivated sunflower accessions formed a clade, nested among wild populations from the Great Plains, confirming a single domestication event in central North America. Furthermore, cultivated accessions sorted by market type (i.e., oilseed vs. confectionery) rather than breeding pool, recapitulating the secondary development of oil-rich cultivars during its breeding history. Across sunflower, estimates of nucleotide diversity and effective population sizes suggest that cultivated sunflower underwent significant population bottlenecks following its establishment ~5000 years ago. The patterns inferred here corroborate those from previous studies of sunflower domestication, and provide a comprehensive overview of its evolutionary history.

Cold spot microrefugia hold the key to survival for Brazil's Critically Endangered Araucaria tree

Brazil's Araucaria tree (Araucaria angustifolia) is an iconic living fossil and a defining element of the Atlantic Forest global biodiversity hotspot. But despite more than two millennia as a cultural icon in southern Brazil, Araucaria is on the brink of extinction, having lost 97% of its extent to 20th-century logging. Although logging is now illegal, 21st-century climate change constitutes a new-but so far unevaluated-threat to Araucaria's future survival. We use a robust ensemble modelling approach, using recently developed climate data, high-resolution topography and fine-scale vegetation maps, to predict the species' response to climate change and its implications for conservation on meso- and microclimate scales. We show that climate-only models predict the total disappearance of Araucaria's most suitable habitat by 2070, but incorporating topographic effects allows potential highland microrefugia to be identified. The legacy of 20th-century destruction is evident-more than a third of these likely holdouts have already lost their natural vegetation-and 21st-century climate change will leave just 3.5% of remnant forest and 28.4% of highland grasslands suitable for Araucaria. Existing protected areas cover only 2.5% of the surviving microrefugia for this culturally important species, and none occur in any designated indigenous territory. Our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to commit Araucaria to a second consecutive century of significant losses, but targeted interventions could help ensure its survival in the wild.