Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal an increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century

Coupled Pacific Rim megadroughts contributed to the fall of the Ming Dynasty's capital in 1644 CE

Historical documents provide evidence for regional droughts preceding the political turmoil and fall of Beijing in 1644 CE, when more than 20 million people died in northern China during the late Ming famine period. However, the role climate and environmental changes may have played in this pivotal event in Chinese history remains unclear. Here, we provide tree-ring evidence of persistent megadroughts from 1576 to 1593 CE and from 1628 to 1644 CE in northern China, which coincided with exceptionally cold summers just before the fall of Beijing. Our analysis reveals that these regional hydroclimatic extremes are part of a series of megadroughts along the Pacific Rim, which not only impacted the ecology and society of monsoonal northern China, but likely also exacerbated external geopolitical and economic pressures. This finding is corroborated by last millennium reanalysis data and numerical climate model simulations revealing internally driven Pacific sea surface temperature variations and the predominance of decadal scale La Niña-like conditions to be responsible for precipitation decreases over northern China, as well as extensive monsoon regions in the Americas. These teleconnection patterns provide a mechanistic explanation for reoccurring drought spells during the late Ming Dynasty and the environmental framework fostering the fall of Beijing in 1644 CE, and the subsequent demise of the Ming Dynasty.

Driver-response relationships in a large shallow lake since the Anthropocene: Short-term abrupt perturbations versus long-term sustainable

Lakes, as integral social-ecological systems, are hotspots for exploring climatic and anthropogenic impacts, with crucial pathways revealed by continuous sediment records. However, the response of multi-proxies in large shallow lakes to typical abrupt events and sustained drivers since the Anthropocene remains unclear. Here, we explored the driver-identification relationships between multi-proxy peaks and natural and anthropogenic events as well as the attribution of short-term perturbations and long-term pressures. To this end, sediment core records, socio-ecological data, and documented events from official records were integrated into a large shallow lake (Dongting Lake, China). Significant causal cascades and path effects (goodness-of-fit: 0.488; total effect: -1.10; p < .001) were observed among catchment environmental proxies, lake biogenic proxies, and mixed-source proxies. The peak-event identification rate (PEIR) and event-peak driving rate were proposed, and values of 28.57%-46.43% and 50%-81.25% were obtained, respectively. The incomplete accuracy of depicting event perturbations using sediment proxies was caused by various information filters both inside and outside the lake. PEIRs for compound events were 1.41 (±0.72) and 1.09 (±0.46) times greater than those for anthropogenic-dominated and natural-dominated events, respectively. Furthermore, socio-economic activity, hydrologic dynamics, land-use changes, and agriculture exerted significant and persistent pressures, cumulatively contributing 55.3%-80.9% to alterations in sediment proxies. Relatively synergistic or antagonistic trends in temporal contributions of these forces were observed after 2000, which were primarily attributed to the "Grain for Green" project and the Three Gorges Dam. This study represents one of the few investigations to distinguish the driver-response relationship of multiple proxies in large shallow lakes under typical event perturbations and long-term sustained pressures since the Anthropocene. The findings will help policymakers and managers address ecological perturbations triggered by climate change and human activities over long-term periods.

A glacial lake outburst floods hazard assessment in the Patagonian Andes combining inventory data and case-studies

We present a glacial-related lake inventory for a region spanning 41.5° - 47° S in Patagonian Andes, where information on past glacier lake outburst floods (GLOF's) has hitherto remained significantly underreported. Analyzing remotely sensed images, we obtained data on 702 glacial-related lakes. Through detailed geomorphic assessments and manual supervision, we revised current inventories and added 35 GLOFs triggered from moraine/bedrock dammed lakes failures. The regional GLOF inventory presented contains information on 71 historical failures of moraine/bedrock dammed glacial lakes. From this database we analyzed outburst timing and managed to constrain 37 events occurrences within a period of 1 year. Around 40 % of them have occurred since the early 2000's, most of them originating from lakes probably formed as a delayed response to the glacial retreat imposed by the end of the Little Ice Age. On the other hand, we analyzed meteorological conditions for a sub-set of 10 events constrained within a 10-days period, finding a strong link between atmospheric rivers, cut-off lows impacting the southern Andes, and GLOFs. Only one case is likely to have been triggered by a Mw 4.9 earthquake. Based on topographic potential for avalanching, we estimated GLOF hazard potential, recognizing at least 3 subregions with high hazard, which moreover can be highly susceptible to climate conditions that regionally affect GLOF occurrence.

Global vegetation, moisture, thermal and climate interactions intensify compound extreme events

Compound extreme events, encompassing drought, vegetation stress, wildfire severity, and heatwave intensity (CDVWHS), pose significant threats to societal, environmental, and health systems. Understanding the intricate relationships governing CDVWHS evolution and their interaction with climate teleconnections is crucial for effective climate adaptation strategies. This study leverages remote sensing, reanalysis data, and climate models to analyze CDVWHS during historical (1982-2014), near-future (2028-2060), and far-future (2068-2100) periods under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP; 245 and 585). Our results show that reduced vegetation health, unfavorable temperature conditions, and low moisture conditions have negligible effects on vegetation density. However, they worsen the intensity of heatwaves and increase the risk of wildfires. Wildfires can persist when thermal conditions are poor despite favorable moisture levels. For example, despite adequate moisture availability, we link the 2012 Siberian wildfire in the Ob basin to anomalous negative thermal conditions and concurrent unfavorable thermal-moisture conditions. In contrast, the Amazon experiences extreme and exceptional drought associated with unfavorable moisture conditions in the same year. A comparative analysis of Siberian and North American fires reveals distinct burned area anomalies due to variations in vegetation density and wildfire fuel. The North American fires have lower positive anomalies in burned areas because of negative anomalous vegetation density, which reduced the amount of wildfire fuel. Furthermore, we examine basin-specific variability in climate teleconnections related to compound CDVWHS, revealing the primary modes of variability and evolution of CDVWHS through climate teleconnection patterns. Moreover, a substantial increase in the magnitude of heatwave severity emerges between the near and far future under SSP 585. This study underscores the urgency for targeted actions to enhance ecosystem resilience and safeguard vulnerable communities from CDVWHS impacts. Identifying CDVWHS hotspots and comprehending their complex relationships with environmental factors are essential for developing effective adaptation strategies in a changing climate.

Climate variability of the southern Amazon inferred by a multi-proxy tree-ring approach using Cedrela fissilis Vell

The analysis of climate variability and development of reconstructions based on tree-ring records in tropical forests have been increasing in recent decades. In the Amazon region, ring width and stable isotope long-term chronologies have been used for climatic studies, however little is known about the potential of wood traits such as density and chemical concentrations. In this study, we used well-dated rings of Cedrela fissilis Vell. from the drought-prone southern Amazon basin to assess the potential of using inter-annual variations of annually-resolved ring width, wood density, stable oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O_TR) measured in tree-ring cellulose and concentration of Sulfur (S_TR) and Calcium (Ca_TR) in xylem cells to study climate variability. During wet years, Cedrela fissilis produced wider and denser rings with higher Ca_TR and lower S_TR, as well as depleted δ¹⁸O_TR values. During dry years, a wider range of responses was observed in growth, density and S_TR, while lower Ca_TR and enriched δ¹⁸O_TR values were found. The annual centennial chronologies spanning from 1835 to 2018 showed good calibration skills for reconstructing local precipitation, evapotranspiration (P-PET), Amazon-wide rainfall, as well as climate modes related to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies such as El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO), Tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA), and the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) oscillations. Ca_TR explained 42 % of the variance of local precipitation (1975-2018), RW explained 30 % of the P-PET variance (1975-2018), while δ¹⁸O_TR explained 60 % and 57 % of the variance of Amazon rainfall (1960-2018) and El Niño 3.4 (1920-2018), respectively. Our results show that a multi-proxy tropical tree-ring approach can be used for high-reliable reconstructions of climate variability over Amazon basin at inter-annual and multidecadal time scales.

Interactive effects of changes in UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and feedbacks to the climate system

Terrestrial organisms and ecosystems are being exposed to new and rapidly changing combinations of solar UV radiation and other environmental factors because of ongoing changes in stratospheric ozone and climate. In this Quadrennial Assessment, we examine the interactive effects of changes in stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles in the context of the Montreal Protocol. We specifically assess effects on terrestrial organisms, agriculture and food supply, biodiversity, ecosystem services and feedbacks to the climate system. Emphasis is placed on the role of extreme climate events in altering the exposure to UV radiation of organisms and ecosystems and the potential effects on biodiversity. We also address the responses of plants to increased temporal variability in solar UV radiation, the interactive effects of UV radiation and other climate change factors (e.g. drought, temperature) on crops, and the role of UV radiation in driving the breakdown of organic matter from dead plant material (i.e. litter) and biocides (pesticides and herbicides). Our assessment indicates that UV radiation and climate interact in various ways to affect the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems, and that by protecting the ozone layer, the Montreal Protocol continues to play a vital role in maintaining healthy, diverse ecosystems on land that sustain life on Earth. Furthermore, the Montreal Protocol and its Kigali Amendment are mitigating some of the negative environmental consequences of climate change by limiting the emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting the carbon sequestration potential of vegetation and the terrestrial carbon pool.

Trends and variability in the Southern Annular Mode over the Common Era

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the leading mode of atmospheric variability in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere and has wide ranging effects on ecosystems and societies. Despite the SAM's importance, paleoclimate reconstructions disagree on its variability and trends over the Common Era, which may be linked to variability in SAM teleconnections and the influence of specific proxies. Here, we use data assimilation with a multi-model prior to reconstruct the SAM over the last 2000 years using temperature and drought-sensitive climate proxies. Our method does not assume a stationary relationship between the SAM and the proxy records and allows us to identify critical paleoclimate records and quantify reconstruction uncertainty through time. We find no evidence for a forced response in SAM variability prior to the 20th century. We do find the modern positive trend falls outside the 2σ range of the prior 2000 years at multidecadal time scales, supporting the inference that the SAM's positive trend over the last several decades is a response to anthropogenic climate change.

Beyond pastures, look at plastic: Using Sentinel-2 imagery to map silage bags to improve understanding of cattle intensity

Cattle ranching has increased globally in the last decades, and although pasture expansion is well documented across different regions, there is little understanding of the intensity at which cattle operate in these areas. With freely available Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, we mapped for the first time polyethylene silage bags used for forage conservation in a year with the Random Forest algorithm, and proposed them as a spatial indicator of cattle intensity. For this, we combined monthly silage area with land cover and climatic variables in a regression framework to understand cattle intensity metrics at regional and farm scales throughout 20 million hectares in the Dry Chaco. In addition, we explored the impact of using maize silage supplementation on productive and environmental metrics at the farm scale in a precipitation gradient. We validated our models using a spatially explicit database of cattle distribution. Our results highlight that silage bags are accurate mappable objects with Sentinel-2, which can contribute to the understanding of cattle density, and heifer and steer density in pasture contexts at farm and regional scales. Finally, our whole-farm simulations support the idea that incorporating silage supplementation in cattle ranching regional analyses conducts to significant differences on environmental or productive estimations, which should be considered. The amount of stored forage that is used in supplementation has strong implications for the performance of cattle ranching, but remains difficult to quantify at the regional level with remote sensing. Silage bag mapping is thus an opportunity to improve the overall understanding of livestock intensification and its productive and environmental impacts, particularly in highly seasonal rangelands. Following this metric could be a valuable indicator of the cattle ranching performance in terms of it resilience, production increase and impacts over natural ecosystems (related to Sustainable Development Goal 2-zero hunger and also in the 15-life on land).

Abrupt loss and uncertain recovery from fires of Amazon forests under low climate mitigation scenarios

Tropical forests contribute a major sink for anthropogenic carbon emissions essential to slowing down the buildup of atmospheric CO2 and buffering climate change impacts. However, the response of tropical forests to more frequent weather extremes and long-recovery disturbances like fires remains uncertain. Analyses of field data and ecological theory raise concerns about the possibility of the Amazon crossing a tipping point leading to catastrophic tropical forest loss. In contrast, climate models consistently project an enhanced tropical sink. Here, we show a heterogeneous response of Amazonian carbon stocks in GFDL-ESM4.1, an Earth System Model (ESM) featuring dynamic disturbances and height-structured tree-grass competition. Enhanced productivity due to CO2 fertilization promotes increases in forest biomass that, under low emission scenarios, last until the end of the century. Under high emissions, positive trends reverse after 2060, when simulated fires prompt forest loss that results in a 40% decline in tropical forest biomass by 2100. Projected fires occur under dry conditions associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, a response observed under current climate conditions, but exacerbated by an overall decline in precipitation. Following the initial disturbance, grassland dominance promotes recurrent fires and tree competitive exclusion, which prevents forest recovery. EC-Earth3-Veg, an ESM with a dynamic vegetation model of similar complexity, projected comparable wildfire forest loss under high emissions but faster postfire recovery rates. Our results reveal the importance of complex nonlinear responses to assessing climate change impacts and the urgent need to research postfire recovery and its representation in ESMs.

Ecophysiological responses of Nothofagus obliqua forests to recent climate drying across the Mediterranean-Temperate biome transition in south-central Chile

The forests of south-central Chile are facing a drying climate and a megadrought that started in 2010. This study addressed the physiological responses of five Nothofagus obliqua stands across the Mediterranean-Temperate gradient (35.9 ° -40.3° S) using carbon isotope discrimination (Δ¹³ C) and intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) in tree rings during 1967-2017. Moreover, δ¹⁸O was evaluated in the northernmost site to better understand the effects of the megadrought in this drier location. These forests have become more efficient in their use of water. However, trees from the densest stand are discriminating more against ¹³C, probably due to reduced photosynthetic rates associated with increasing competition. The strongest associations between climate and Δ¹³C were found in the northernmost stand, suggesting that warmer and drier conditions could have reduced ¹³C discrimination. Tree growth in this site has not decreased, and δ¹⁸O was negatively related to annual rainfall. However, a shift in this relationship was found since 2007, when both precipitation and δ¹⁸O decreased, while correlations between δ¹⁸O and growth increased. This implies that tree growth and δ¹⁸O are coupled in recent years, but precipitation is not the cause, suggesting that trees probably changed their water source to deeper and more depleted pools. Our research demonstrates that forests are not reducing their growth in central Chile, mainly due to a shift towards the use of deeper water sources. Despite a common climate trend across the gradient, there is a non-uniform response of N. obliqua forests to climate drying, being their response site specific. Keywords: Tree rings, stable isotopes, tree physiology, climate gradient, megadrought, climate change.

Effects of climate change on forest plantation productivity in Chile

Forest plantations in Chile occupy more than 2.2 million ha and are responsible for 2.1% of the GDP of the country's economy. The ability to accurately predictions of plantations productivity under current and future climate has an impact can enhance on forest management and industrial wood production. The use of process-based models to predict forest growth has been instrumental in improving the understanding and quantifying the effects of climate variability, climate change, and the impact of atmospheric CO₂ concentration and management practices on forest growth. This study uses the 3-PG model to predict future forest productivity Eucalyptus globulus and Pinus radiata. The study integrates climate data from global circulation models used in CMIP5 for scenarios RCP26 and RCP85, digital soil maps for physical and chemical variables. Temporal and spatial tree growth inventories were used to compare with the 3-PG predictions. The results indicated that forest productivity is predicted to potentially increase stand volume (SV) over the next 50 years by 26% and 24% for the RCP26 scenario and between 73% and 62% for the RCP85 scenario for E. globulus and P. radiata, respectively. The predicted increases can be explained by a combination of higher level of atmospheric CO₂ , air temperatures closer to optimum than current, and increases in tree water use efficiency. If the effect of CO₂ is not considered, the predicted differences of SV for 2070 are 16% and 14% for the RCP26 scenario and 22% and 14% for RCP85 for the two species. While shifts in climate and increasing CO₂ are likely to benefit promote higher productivity, other factors such as lack insufficient availability of soil nutrients, events such as increasing frequency and duration of droughts, longer periods of extreme temperatures, competing vegetation, and occurrence of new pests and diseases may compromise these potential gains.

Reduced Rainfall Variability Reduces Growth of Nothofagus alessandrii Espinosa (Nothofagaceae) in the Maule Region, Chile

Nothofagus alessandrii Espinosa is an endemic species of the coastal Maulino forest of central Chile that has historically been severely threatened by the reduction of its habitat and the isolation of its fragments. In addition, a gradual reduction in precipitation has been observed in recent years across its entire natural distribution area. Although the genus Nothofagus has been extensively analyzed in dendrochronological studies in the Southern Hemisphere, the dendrochronological potential of this species is unknown. In this study, we developed a novel tree-ring chronology of N. alessandrii in order to examine the climate sensitivity of the radial growth and to thus understand its response to climate change in central Chile. Our ring-width chronology showed a series intercorrelation value of 0.48 for the period of 1942–2016 (EPS < 0.85, with 10 trees), showing a strong common growth signal among the trees. N. alessandrii growth was strongly influenced by precipitation from May to November (the austral winter and spring seasons), while the temperature signal was weak. We observed that the radial growth patterns of N. alessandrii chronology showed upward growth trends, with a marked positive slope until the mid-1980s. However, a negative trend was observed for the period of 1985–2016, which was related to the increased drought conditions (rainfall and soil moisture reductions) in past decades and affected the entire natural distribution of the species. We suggest that drier winters and springs would slow the growth of this species. This information is of vital importance to understanding the growth dynamics of N. alessandrii, a critically endangered species, and to take on urgent adaptation and mitigation measures in the face of climate change.

Coexistence in Times of Climate Crisis: A Participatory Mapping to Understanding Conservation Conflicts in the Central Andes of Chile

Purpose

Human-wildlife conflicts worldwide are arising, representing significant challenges for conservation biologists, decision-makers, and agropastoralist communities. Extreme climatic events, disease outbreaks, and land-use change could be intensifying these conflicts. The multi-species and mountainous landscapes seem prone to conflicts due to a lack of territory planning. These complex, dynamic, and multi-layered conflicts require a multidimensional approach. Currently, in Chile, mountainous landscapes have several threats, such as a lack of territory planning, mega-mining projects, and recently (last 10 years) the effects of the Mega-drought. Many transhumant agropastoralists have been forced to quit their livelihoods while increasing livestock-wildlife conflicts. We aim to build territorial planning within a holistic approach to strengthening the agropastoralists' competence to coexist with local wildlife (puma, condor, and guanaco) in Central Chile's Andes mountains.

Methodology

We conducted participatory mapping workshops with two agropastoralist communities in 2020. They were randomly divided into 4 to 7 people groups and told to draw a map representing their territory, including four elements: (1) natural and human components of the landscape, (2) natural wildlife conflict areas, (3) active grazing areas, and (4) their ideal future scenario, regarding their activity.

Findings

Results showed different spatial perceptions of the natural and human components of the territory. All agropastoralists (100%) indicated similar wildlife conflict areas: focusing in the Summerlands. All agreed that Mega-drought was the primary threat to their production, increasing the conflict with wildlife. Summerland areas are identified as suitable areas for working in conflict with wildlife.

Research Limitations/Implications

This study highlights the need for a multidimensional approach to conflict and territory planning to address conservation conflicts. The study's implications show that agropastoralists decided to reduce Summerland use and improve Winterland planning to increase livestock productivity and reduce conflict with wildlife. Participatory mapping could help to prioritize areas to mitigate conflicts with wildlife.

Originality/Value

This study is the first in the Aconcagua valley to conduct a transdisciplinary &amp; participatory approach toward coexistence between transhumant agropastoralists and wildlife. It also provides a baseline for similar schemes in semi-arid and mountainous landscapes worldwide facing rapid climate shifts and increasing human-wildlife conflict.

Dendroclimatology in Latin America: A Review of the State of the Art

The application of dendrochronology for understanding climatic variations has been of great interest to climatologists, ecologists, geographers, archeologists, among other sciences, particularly in recent decades when more dendrochronological studies have been developed. We analyzed and identified the current state and recent advances in dendroclimatology in Latin America for the period 1990 to 2020. We carried out reviews in ScienceDirect, Web of Science, and Scopus databases with the keywords “dendrochronology”, “dendroclimatology”, “dendrochronology and climatic variability”, “dendroclimatology and climatic variability”, “dendrochronology and trend”, and “dendroclimatology and trend” for each Latin American country. Results show that dendroclimatological research in the last 11 years has increased and has been mainly developed in temperate climate zones (83%) and tropical or subtropical areas (17%), where conifer species have been the most used with over 59% of the studies. However, broadleaf species for dendrochronological studies have also increased in the last decade. Dendroclimatological research in Latin America has provided important advances in the study of climatic variability by defining the response functions of tree-rings to climate and developing climatic reconstructions. Our research identified areas where it is necessary to increase dendroclimatic studies (e.g., dry and tropical forests), in addition to applying new techniques such as isotope analysis, blue intensity, dendrochemistry, among other tree-ring applications.

Assessing the Hydric Deficit on Two Polylepis Species from the Peruvian Andean Mountains: Xylem Vessel Anatomic Adjusting

The impact of drought on vessel architecture and function has been broadly assessed for a variety of tree species in the last decades, but the hydraulic plasticity under temperature increase has scarcely been studied. The effect of drought on tree-ring width and specific hydraulic conductivity depends on relict-tree species resilience to climatic adaptability and its wood anatomical responses to climatic oscillations. We assessed the vessel architecture adaptation of two threatened Peruvian Andean Polylepis species (P. rodolfo-vasquezii and P. tarapacana). We found that historical Peruvian drought years differentially affected Polylepis species, where P. rodolfo-vasquezii showed vessel anatomical features significantly sensitive to drought events when contrasted with P. tarapacana. The drought effect influenced the capacity of Polylepis species to adjust the tree-ring width and vessel anatomical traits of their hydraulic system. Our results suggest that drought events influence Polylepis species’ adaptability and resilience to dry periods and could also restrict them from remaining as a part of the Peruvian Andean puna and mountain ecosystems.

Machine learning-based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire

Reliable projections of wildfire and associated socioeconomic risks are crucial for the development of efficient and effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. The lack of or limited observational constraints for modeling outputs impairs the credibility of wildfire projections. Here, we present a machine learning framework to constrain the future fire carbon emissions simulated by 13 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), using historical, observed joint states of fire-relevant variables. During the twenty-first century, the observation-constrained ensemble indicates a weaker increase in global fire carbon emissions but higher increase in global wildfire exposure in population, gross domestic production, and agricultural area, compared with the default ensemble. Such elevated socioeconomic risks are primarily caused by the compound regional enhancement of future wildfire activity and socioeconomic development in the western and central African countries, necessitating an emergent strategic preparedness to wildfires in these countries.

A new study develops a machine learning framework to observationally constrain CMIP6-simulated fire carbon emissions, finding a weaker increase in 21st-century global fires but higher increase in their socioeconomic risks than previously thought.

Extreme Sea Surges, Tsunamis and Pluvial Flooding Events during the Last ~1000 Years in the Semi-Arid Wetland, Coquimbo Chile

The coast of Chile has been exposed to marine submersion events from storm surges, tsunamis and flooding due to heavy rains. We present evidence of these events using sedimentary records that cover the last 1000 years in the Pachingo wetland. Two sediment cores were analyzed for granulometry, XRF, pollen, diatoms and TOC. Three extreme events produced by marine submersion and three by pluvial flooding during El Niño episodes were identified. Geochronology was determined using a conventional dating method using 14C, 210Pbxs and 137Cs). The older marine event (E1) was heavier, identified by a coarser grain size, high content of seashells, greater amount of gravel and the presence of two rip-up clasts, which seems to fit with the tsunami of 1420 Cal AD. The other two events (E3 and E5) may correspond to the 1922 (E3) tsunami and the 1984 (E5) storm waves, corroborated with a nearshore wave simulation model for this period (SWAM). On the other hand, the three flood events (E2, E4, E6) all occurred during episodes of El Niño in 1997 (E6), 1957 (E4) and 1600 (E6), represented by layers of fine-grain sands and wood charcoal remains.

Disentangling the last 1,000 years of human-environment interactions along the eastern side of the southern Andes (34-52°S lat.)

Understanding how people have shaped landscapes requires detailed information on past changes in climate, vegetation, fire, and land use. The environmental and human history of four sites along the eastern Andes of southern South America (34–52°S) shows the changing influence of people and climate on landscape development over the last millennia. Initially, burning by hunter-gatherers and climate variability shaped forest, shrubland, and grassland mosaics. Widespread alteration of fire regimes and vegetation ∼400 y ago is attributed to increased Native American pastoralism prior to extensive Euro-American settlement. Late-19th century ranching and logging led to broadscale changes in fire activity and vegetation across the region. These high-resolution, landscape-scale reconstructions reveal complex human–environment interactions that are often overlooked in regional-to-global syntheses.

Researchers have long debated the degree to which Native American land use altered landscapes in the Americas prior to European colonization. Human–environment interactions in southern South America are inferred from new pollen and charcoal data from Laguna El Sosneado and their comparison with high-resolution paleoenvironmental records and archaeological/ethnohistorical information at other sites along the eastern Andes of southern Argentina and Chile (34–52°S). The records indicate that humans, by altering ignition frequency and the availability of fuels, variously muted or amplified the effects of climate on fire regimes. For example, fire activity at the northern and southern sites was low at times when the climate and vegetation were suitable for burning but lacked an ignition source. Conversely, abundant fires set by humans and infrequent lightning ignitions occurred during periods when warm, dry climate conditions coincided with ample vegetation (i.e., fuel) at midlatitude sites. Prior to European arrival, changes in Native American demography and land use influenced vegetation and fire regimes locally, but human influences were not widely evident until the 16th century, with the introduction of nonnative species (e.g., horses), and then in the late 19th century, as Euro-Americans targeted specific resources to support local and national economies. The complex interactions between past climate variability, human activities, and ecosystem dynamics at the local scale are overlooked by approaches that infer levels of land use simply from population size or that rely on regionally composited data to detect drivers of past environmental change.

The West Pacific Gradient tracks ENSO and zonal Pacific sea surface temperature gradient during the last Millennium

Small changes in Pacific temperature gradients connected with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence the Walker Circulation and are related to global climate anomalies. Therefore, it is of paramount importance to develop robust indices of their past behavior. Here, we reconstruct the difference in sea surface temperature between the west and central Pacific during ENSO, coined the West Pacific Gradient (WPG), based on the Last Millennium Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation. We show that the WPG tracks ENSO variability and strongly co-varies with the zonal gradient in Pacific sea surface temperature. We demonstrate that the WPG strength is related to significant atmospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies during historical El Niño and La Niña events by magnifying or weakening droughts and pluvials across the Indo-Pacific. We show that an extreme negative WPG coupled to a strong zonal Pacific temperature gradient is associated with enhanced megadroughts in North America between 1400 CE and the late sixteenth century. The twentieth century stands out in showing the most extreme swings between positive and negative WPG conditions over the past Millennium. We conclude that the WPG is a robust index together with ENSO indices to reveal past changes in Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient variability.

Different climate sensitivity for radial growth, but uniform for tree-ring stable isotopes along an aridity gradient in Polylepis tarapacana, the world's highest elevation tree species

Tree growth is generally considered to be temperature limited at upper elevation treelines, yet climate factors controlling tree growth at semiarid treelines are poorly understood. We explored the influence of climate on stem growth and stable isotopes for Polylepis tarapacana Philipi, the world's highest elevation tree species, which is found only in the South American Altiplano. We developed tree-ring width index (RWI), oxygen (δ18O) and carbon (δ13C) chronologies for the last 60 years at four P. tarapacana stands located above 4400 m in elevation, along a 500 km latitude aridity gradient. Total annual precipitation decreased from 300 to 200 mm from the northern to the southern sites. We used RWI as a proxy of wood formation (carbon sink) and isotopic tree-ring signatures as proxies of leaf-level gas exchange processes (carbon source). We found distinct climatic conditions regulating carbon sink processes along the gradient. Current growing-season temperature regulated RWI at northern-wetter sites, while prior growing-season precipitation determined RWI at arid southern sites. This suggests that the relative importance of temperature to precipitation in regulating tree growth is driven by site water availability. By contrast, warm and dry growing seasons resulted in enriched tree-ring δ13C and δ18O at all study sites, suggesting that similar climate conditions control carbon-source processes along the gradient. Site-level δ13C and δ18O chronologies were significantly and positively related at all sites, with the strongest relationships among the southern drier stands. This indicates an overall regulation of intercellular carbon dioxide via stomatal conductance for the entire P. tarapacana network, with greater stomatal control when aridity increases. This manuscript also highlights a coupling (decoupling) between physiological processes at leaf level and wood formation as a function of similarities (differences) in their climatic sensitivity. This study contributes to a better understanding and prediction of the response of high-elevation Polylepis woodlands to rapid climate changes and projected drying in the Altiplano.

Radiocarbon bomb-peak signal in tree-rings from the tropical Andes register low latitude atmospheric dynamics in the Southern Hemisphere

South American tropical climate is strongly related to the tropical low-pressure belt associated with the South American monsoon system. Despite its central societal role as a modulating agent of rainfall in tropical South America, its long-term dynamical variability is still poorly understood. Here we combine a new (and world's highest) tree-ring ¹⁴C record from the Altiplano plateau in the central Andes with other ¹⁴C records from the Southern Hemisphere during the second half of the 20th century in order to elucidate the latitudinal gradients associated with the dissemination of the bomb ¹⁴C signal. Our tree-ring ¹⁴C record faithfully captured the bomb signal of the 1960's with an excellent match to atmospheric ¹⁴C measured in New Zealand but with significant differences with a recent record from Southeast Brazil located at almost equal latitude. These results imply that the spreading of the bomb signal throughout the Southern Hemisphere was a complex process that depended on atmospheric dynamics and surface topography generating reversals on the expected north-south gradient in certain years. We applied air-parcel modeling based on climate data to disentangle their different geographical provenances and their preformed (reservoir affected) radiocarbon content. We found that air parcel trajectories arriving at the Altiplano during the bomb period were sourced i) from the boundary layer in contact with the Pacific Ocean (41%), ii) from the upper troposphere (air above the boundary layer, with no contact with oceanic or continental carbon reservoirs) (38%) and iii) from the Amazon basin (21%). Based on these results we estimated the ∆¹⁴C endmember values for the different carbon reservoirs affecting our record which suggest that the Amazon basin biospheric ¹⁴C isoflux could have been reversed from negative to positive as early as the beginning of the 1970's. This would imply a much faster carbon turnover rate in the Amazon than previously modelled.

Stable Isotopes in Tree Rings of Pinus heldreichii Can Indicate Climate Variability over the Eastern Mediterranean Region

A long-term context is important for understanding past climatic variability. Although tree-ring widths (TRWs) are widely used as a proxy for reconstructing past climate, the use of annually-resolved values of δ13C and δ18O tree-ring stable isotopes (TRSIs) is increasing and may provide further valuable information. Here, we present a 487-year-long TRW chronology and 240-year-long TRSI chronology for Bosnian pine (Pinus heldreichii H. Christ) and compare them to each other. We demonstrate that both δ13C and δ18O values are better proxies for temperature, precipitation, and drought than TRW. The correlations between these climate parameters and TRSIs are strongest for the combined summer (JJA) period. The results of temporal and spatial field correlation indicate that TRSI chronologies are stable, reliable proxies for JJA precipitation reconstruction over the whole Balkan Peninsula and surrounding eastern Mediterranean region. However, the stability of the temperature signal of the both δ13C and δ18O chronologies declines after the 1950s. Our work supports the emerging evidence that TRSI data track climate variability more accurately than a conventional TRW approach and can be subsequently used for the reconstruction of past climate.

Hydrological droughts in the southern Andes (40-45°S) from an ensemble experiment using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

The decrease in freshwater input to the coastal system of the Southern Andes (40-45°S) during the last decades has altered the physicochemical characteristics of the coastal water column, causing significant environmental, social and economic consequences. Considering these impacts, the objectives were to analyze historical severe droughts and their climate drivers, and to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change in the intermediate future (2040-2070). Hydrological modelling was performed in the Puelo River basin (41°S) using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. The hydrological response and its uncertainty were compared using different combinations of CMIP projects (n = 2), climate models (n = 5), scenarios (n = 3) and univariate statistical downscaling methods (n = 3). The 90 scenarios projected increases in the duration, hydrological deficit and frequency of severe droughts of varying duration (1 to 6 months). The three downscaling methodologies converged to similar results, with no significant differences between them. In contrast, the hydroclimatic projections obtained with the CMIP6 and CMIP5 models found significant climatic (greater trends in summer and autumn) and hydrological (longer droughts) differences. It is recommended that future climate impact assessments adapt the new simulations as more CMIP6 models become available.

Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2020

This assessment by the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) provides the latest scientific update since our most recent comprehensive assessment (Photochemical and Photobiological Sciences, 2019, 18, 595-828). The interactive effects between the stratospheric ozone layer, solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and climate change are presented within the framework of the Montreal Protocol and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. We address how these global environmental changes affect the atmosphere and air quality; human health; terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; biogeochemical cycles; and materials used in outdoor construction, solar energy technologies, and fabrics. In many cases, there is a growing influence from changes in seasonality and extreme events due to climate change. Additionally, we assess the transmission and environmental effects of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which is responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, in the context of linkages with solar UV radiation and the Montreal Protocol.

Multi-isotopic and morphometric evidence for the migration of farmers leading up to the Inka conquest of the southern Andes

We present isotopic and morphometric evidence suggesting the migration of farmers in the southern Andes in the period AD 1270–1420, leading up to the Inka conquest occurring ~ AD 1400. This is based on the interdisciplinary study of human remains from archaeological cemeteries in the Andean Uspallata Valley (Argentina), located in the southern frontier of the Inka Empire. The studied samples span AD 800–1500, encompassing the highly dynamic Late Intermediate Period and culminating with the imperial expansion. Our research combines a macro-regional study of human paleomobility and migration based on a new strontium isoscape across the Andes that allows identifying locals and migrants, a geometric morphometric analysis of cranio-facial morphology suggesting separate ancestral lineages, and a paleodietary reconstruction based on stable isotopes showing that the migrants had diets exceptionally high in C₄ plants and largely based on maize agriculture. Significantly, this migration influx occurred during a period of regional demographic increase and would have been part of a widespread period of change in settlement patterns and population movements that preceded the Inka expansion. These processes increased local social diversity and may have been subsequently utilized by the Inka to channel interaction with the local societies.