Increasing and widespread vulnerability of intact tropical rainforests to repeated droughts

Critical slowing down of the Amazon forest after increased drought occurrence

Dynamic ecosystems, such as the Amazon forest, are expected to show critical slowing down behavior, or slower recovery from recurrent small perturbations, as they approach an ecological threshold to a different ecosystem state. Drought occurrences are becoming more prevalent across the Amazon, with known negative effects on forest health and functioning, but their actual role in the critical slowing down patterns still remains elusive. In this study, we evaluate the effect of trends in extreme drought occurrences on temporal autocorrelation (TAC) patterns of satellite-derived indices of vegetation activity, an indicator of slowing down, between 2001 and 2019. Differentiating between extreme drought frequency, intensity, and duration, we investigate their respective effects on the slowing down response. Our results indicate that the intensity of extreme droughts is a more important driver of slowing down than their duration, although their impacts vary across the different Amazon regions. In addition, areas with more variable precipitation are already less ecologically stable and need fewer droughts to induce slowing down. We present findings indicating that most of the Amazon region does not show an increasing trend in TAC. However, the predicted increase in extreme drought intensity and frequency could potentially transition significant portions of this ecosystem into a state with altered functionality.

Hydraulic properties and drought response of a tropical bamboo (Cephalostachyum pergracile)

Bamboo plants are an essential component of tropical ecosystems, yet their vulnerability to climate extremes, such as drought, is poorly understood due to limited knowledge of their hydraulic properties. Cephalostachyum pergracile, a commonly used tropical bamboo species, exhibited a substantially higher mortality rate than other co-occurring bamboos during a severe drought event in 2019, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. This study investigated the leaf and stem hydraulic traits related to drought responses, including leaf-stem embolism resistance (P50leaf; P50stem) estimated using optical and X-ray microtomography methods, leaf pressure-volume and water-releasing curves. Additionally, we investigated the seasonal water potentials, native embolism level (PLC) and xylem water source using stable isotope. We found that C. pergracile exhibited strong resistance to embolism, showing low P50leaf, P50stem, and turgor loss point, despite its rapid leaf water loss. Interestingly, its leaves displayed greater resistance to embolism than its stem, suggesting a lack of effective hydraulic vulnerability segmentation (HVS) to protect the stem from excessive xylem tension. During the dry season, approximately 49% of the water was absorbed from the upper 20-cm-deep soil layer. Consequently, significant diurnal variation in leaf water potentials and an increase in midday PLC from 5.87 ± 2.33% in the wet season to 12.87 ± 4.09% in the dry season were observed. In summary, this study demonstrated that the rapid leaf water loss, high reliance on surface water, and a lack of effective HVS in C. pergracile accelerated water depletion and increased xylem embolism even in the typical dry season, which may explain its high mortality rate during extreme drought events in 2019.

Crop Diversity in Agroecosystems for Pest Management and Food Production

During the past 30 years, there has been a growing belief in and promotion of agroecosystem diversity for pest management and future food production as an agroecological or nature-based approach. Monoculture agriculture, which produces most of our food, is considered to be highly vulnerable to pests in contrast to plant species-diverse agroecosystems which may possess a greater abundance of natural enemies, keeping pest populations under control. In this paper, we question the role of crop diversity for pest management and explore the relationship between crop and associated diversity and pests through the following processes: environmental stresses that favor monodominance; evolutionary adaptations that resist insect herbivores (genetic resistance response); mechanisms of spatial escape from insect herbivores (escape response); and the role of crop-associated biodiversity. We present strong evidence that not only questions the high vulnerability of monocultures to pest damage but also supports why monocultures continue to produce most of the world's food. Reference is made to the importance of targeted plant breeding and the role of trans-continental crop introduction supported by efficient quarantine for pest management. We conclude that-with the exception of irrigated rice-much more research is needed to better understand the role of crop diversity in agroecosystems for pest management and food production.

Assessing the functional vulnerability of woody plant communities within a large scale tropical rainforest dynamics plot

Introduction

Tropical forests are characterized by intricate mosaics of species-rich and structurally complex forest communities. Evaluating the functional vulnerability of distinct community patches is of significant importance in establishing conservation priorities within tropical forests. However, previous assessments of functional vulnerability in tropical forests have often focused solely on isolated factors or individual disturbance events, with limited consideration for a broad spectrum of disturbances and the responses of diverse species.

Methods

We assessed the functional vulnerability of woody plant communities in a 60-ha dynamic plot within a tropical montane rainforest by conducting in silico simulations of a wide range disturbances. These simulations combined plant functional traits and community properties, including the distribution of functional redundancy across the entire trait space, the distribution of abundance across species, and the relationship between species trait distinctiveness and species abundance. We also investigated the spatial distribution patterns of functional vulnerability and their scale effects, and employed a spatial autoregressive model to examine the relationships between both biotic and abiotic factors and functional vulnerability at different scales.

Results

The functional vulnerability of tropical montane rainforest woody plant communities was generally high (the functional vulnerability of observed communities was very close to that of the most vulnerable virtual community, with a value of 72.41% on average at the 20m×20m quadrat scale), and they exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity. Functional vulnerability decreased with increasing spatial scale and the influence of both biotic and abiotic factors on functional vulnerability was regulated by spatial scale, with soil properties playing a dominant role.

Discussion

Our study provides new specific insights into the comprehensive assessment of functional vulnerability in the tropical rainforest. We highlighted that functional vulnerabilities of woody plant communities and their sensitivity to environmental factors varied significantly within and across spatial scales in the tropical rainforest landscape. Preserving and maintaining the functionality of tropical ecosystems should take into consideration the variations in functional vulnerability among different plant communities and their sensitivity to environmental factors.

Declined terrestrial ecosystem resilience

Terrestrial ecosystem resilience is crucial for maintaining the structural and functional stability of ecosystems following disturbances. However, changes in resilience over the past few decades and the risk of future resilience loss under ongoing climate change are unclear. Here, we identified resilience trends using two remotely sensed vegetation indices, analyzed the relative importance of potential driving factors to resilience changes, and finally assessed the risk of future resilience loss based on the output data of eight models from CMIP6. The results revealed that more than 60% of the ecosystems experienced a conversion from an increased trend to a declined trend in resilience. Attribution analysis showed that the most important driving factors of declined resilience varied regionally. The declined trends in resilience were associated with increased precipitation variability in the tropics, decreased vegetation cover in arid region, increased temperature variability in temperate regions, and increased average temperature in cold regions. CMIP6 reveals that terrestrial ecosystems under SPP585 are expected to experience more intense declines in resilience than those under SSP126 and SSP245, particularly in cold regions. These results highlight the risk of continued degradation of ecosystem resilience in the future and the urgency of climate mitigation actions.

Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales

Potential climate tipping points pose a growing risk for societies, and policy is calling for improved anticipation of them. Satellite remote sensing can play a unique role in identifying and anticipating tipping phenomena across scales. Where satellite records are too short for temporal early warning of tipping points, complementary spatial indicators can leverage the exceptional spatial-temporal coverage of remotely sensed data to detect changing resilience of vulnerable systems. Combining Earth observation with Earth system models can improve process-based understanding of tipping points, their interactions, and potential tipping cascades. Such fine-resolution sensing can support climate tipping point risk management across scales.

Enhanced growth resistance but no decline in growth resilience under long-term extreme droughts

The frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme droughts, with devastating impacts on tree growth and survival, have increased with climate change over the past decades. Assessing growth resistance and resilience to drought is a crucial prerequisite for understanding the responses of forest functioning to drought events. However, the responses of growth resistance and resilience to extreme droughts with different durations across different climatic zones remain unclear. Here, we investigated the spatiotemporal patterns in growth resistance and resilience in response to extreme droughts with different durations during 1901-2015, relying on tree-ring chronologies from 2389 forest stands over the mid- and high-latitudinal Northern Hemisphere, species-specific plant functional traits, and diverse climatic factors. The findings revealed that growth resistance and resilience under 1-year droughts were higher in humid regions than in arid regions. Significant higher growth resistance was observed under 2-year droughts than under 1-year droughts in both arid and humid regions, while growth resilience did not show a significant difference. Temporally, tree growth became less resistant and resilient to 1-year droughts in 1980-2015 than in 1901-1979 in both arid and humid regions. As drought duration lengthened, the predominant impacts of climatic factors on growth resistance and resilience weakened and instead foliar economic traits, plant hydraulic traits, and soil properties became much more important in both climatic regions; in addition, such trends were also observed temporally. Finally, we found that most of the Earth system models (ESMs) used in this study overestimated growth resistance and underestimated growth resilience under both 1-year and 2-year droughts. A comprehensive ecophysiological understanding of tree growth responses to longer and intensified drought events is urgently needed, and a specific emphasis should be placed on improving the performance of ESMs.

Reliability of vegetation resilience estimates depends on biomass density

Concerns have been raised that the resilience of vegetated ecosystems may be negatively impacted by ongoing anthropogenic climate and land-use change at the global scale. Several recent studies present global vegetation resilience trends based on satellite data using diverse methodological set-ups. Here, upon a systematic comparison of data sets, spatial and temporal pre-processing, and resilience estimation methods, we propose a methodology that avoids different biases present in previous results. Nevertheless, we find that resilience estimation using optical satellite vegetation data is broadly problematic in dense tropical and high-latitude boreal forests, regardless of the vegetation index chosen. However, for wide parts of the mid-latitudes-especially with low biomass density-resilience can be reliably estimated using several optical vegetation indices. We infer a spatially consistent global pattern of resilience gain and loss across vegetation indices, with more regions facing declining resilience, especially in Africa, Australia and central Asia.