From “Primitive Migration” to “Climate Refugees”: The Curious Fate of the Natural Environment in Migration Studies

Time to Mainstream the Environment into Migration Theory?

As with all social processes, human migration is a dynamic process that requires regular theoretical reflection; this article offers such reflection as related to the role of the natural environment in contemporary migration research and theory. A growing body of evidence suggests that environmental contexts are increasingly shifting social and ecological realities in ways that are consequential to migration theory. We review some of this evidence, providing examples applicable to core migration theories, including neoclassical economic and migration systems perspectives, the "push-pull" framework, and the new economics of labor migration. We suggest that neglecting consideration of the natural environment may yield misspecified migration models that attribute migration too heavily to social and economic factors particularly in the context of contemporary climate change,. On the other hand, failure to consider migration theory in climate scenarios may lead to simplistic projections and understandings, as in the case of "climate refugees". We conclude that migration researchers have an obligation to accurately reflect the complexity of migration's drivers, including the environment, within migration scholarship especially in the context of global climate change.

Household Migration and Intentions for Future Migration in the Climate Change Vulnerable Lower Meghna Estuary of Coastal Bangladesh

Coastal residents of Bangladesh are now confronted with the increased incidence, variability, and severity of weather-related hazards and disasters due to climate change-induced sea level rise (SLR). Many researchers hold the view that as a consequence residents of such area have either already migrated to inland locations or intend to so in the near future. We examine the migration of households following a flash flood event that took place in August 2020 and address intentions for future migration in the Lower Meghna Estuary of coastal Bangladesh. The data obtained for this study include 310 household surveys, field observations, and informal discussions with respondents and local people. Based on the analysis of the field data, this empirical research found one household migrated to other district within one year after the event. When the respondents were asked about their future migration intensions, only a tiny proportion, namely 21 (6.77%) households, likely will leave the study area to settle in other districts while the remaining 289 households likely will stay in the Lakshmipur district. This finding challenges the existing narratives about vulnerability to environmentally induced migration. Moreover, it provides evidence of non-migration, which is a new as well as thriving area of investigation in relation to coastal Bangladesh.

Environmental Mobility in a Polarized World: Questioning the Pertinence of the "Climate Refugee" Label for Pacific Islanders

This note offers thoughts on the conceptual and empirical debate surrounding the "climate refugees" label, created as a theoretical category of migrants to reflect the plight of environmentally vulnerable communities. This note challenges this status on conceptual terms. First, we investigate its academic foundations and contend that it fails to portray the complexities of choice, agency, and causality in climate-induced mobility. We then parallel this concept with narratives on traditional asylum seekers to argue that, in a context of heightened anti-immigration sentiment, using security and victim frames may be counterproductive. Finally, we contend that the concept of "climate refugees" is difficult to institutionalize at the international level because it would require challenging dominant conceptions of humanitarian and environmental distress and call into question the West's responsibility in global climate change and inequality. We conclude that promoting more humane and effective governance regimes requires integrating affected communities' perspective and conceptualizing climate-induced mobilities as complex and multifactorial processes. Keeping in mind the political context in which it is being used, we argue that the label "climate refugees" is inefficient and inadequate in contemporary politics.

How Should We Talk About Climate Change and Migration?

This paper is a response Ferris (2020), specifically to the call for coalescence around a single term by which to talk about people migrating in response to climate change. While sympathetic to the imperative behind Ferris’ (2020) call, my overall argument is to reject this proposal. Instead I argue for less of focus on what we call people migrating in response to climate change, and more of a focus on how we talk about them. To justify this, I argue that a single term is inherently reductive and likely to play upon anti-immigrant sentiment due to the need to portray ‘migration as a problem’. At best this will result in a policy focus with limited capacity to address the challenge of migration in a context of climate change. At worst it will drive a policy response that is overtly counter-productive. As an alternative, I propose embracing a multitude of discourses, informed by principals that I argue will drive a humane climate agenda, and allow for a flexible approach that can account for the variety of concerns at the nexus of climate change and human migration.

Migration as Adaptation?

The discourse on climate change and migration has shifted from labelling migration merely as a consequence of climate impacts, to describing it as a form of human adaptation. This article explores the adaptation framing of the climate change and migration nexus and highlights its shortcomings and advantages. While for some groups, under certain circumstances migration can be an effective form of adaptation, for others it leads to increased vulnerabilities and a poverty spiral, reducing their adaptive capacities. Non-economic losses connected to a change of place further challenge the notion of successful adaptation. Even when migration improves the situation of a household, it may conceal the lack of action on climate change adaptation from national governments or the international community. Given the growing body of evidence on the diverse circumstances and outcomes of migration in the context of climate change, we distinguish between reactive and proactive migration and argue for a precise differentiation in the academic debate.

Why climate migration is not managed retreat: Six justifications

This perspective piece makes a case for a more rigorous treatment of managed retreat as a politically, legally, and economically distinct type of relocation that is separate from climate migration. We argue that the use of both concepts interchangeably obfuscates the problems around climate-induced mobilities and contributes to the inconsistencies in policy, plans, and actions taken by governments and organizations tasked with addressing them. This call for a disentanglement is not solely an academic exercise aimed at conceptual clarity, but an effort targeted at incentivizing researchers, practitioners, journalists, and advocates working on both issues to better serve their constituencies through alliance formation, resource mobilization, and the establishment of institutional pathways to climate justice. We offer a critical understanding of the distinctions between climate migration and managed retreat grounded in six orienting propositions. They include differential: causal mechanisms, legal protections, rights regimes and funding structures, discursive effects, implications for land use, and exposure to risks. We provide empirical examples from existing literature to contextualize our propositions while calling for a transformative justice approach to addressing both issues.

No Power without Knowledge: A Discursive Subjectivities Approach to Investigate Climate-Induced (Im)mobility and Wellbeing

During the last few decades we have seen a rapid growth in the body of literature on climate-induced human mobility or environmental migration. Meanwhile, in-depth people-centred studies investigating people’s (im)mobility decision-making as a highly complex and sociopsychological process are scarce. This is problematic as human decision-making behaviour and responses—including their success or failure—closely align with people’s wellbeing status. In this article, elaborations around why these under-representations of research narratives and existing methods will guide us towards a solution. The article proposes a conceptual model to help fill this gap that is inspired by Michel Foucault’s power and knowledge relationship and discursive subjectivities. The conceptual idea introduced by the article offers as a replicable approach and potential way forward that can support widening empirical research in the area of climate-induced (im)mobility decision-making and wellbeing.

The Influence of Environmental Change (Crops and Water) on Population Redistribution in Mexico and Ethiopia

This paper discusses the effects of long-term environmental change (represented by the abundance or scarcity relative to the long-term average level of crop yield/river flow) and short-term environmental shock (represented by the maximum number of consecutive years below the median crop yield/river flow per decade) on population redistribution in Mexico and Ethiopia. Crop production and water resources, which are affected by climate change and influence human survival and activities, were selected as research variables. Two developing countries, namely, Mexico and Ethiopia, were selected as comparison cases. The results showed that short-term environmental shocks had no correlation with population redistribution. Short-term environmental shocks might fail to influence migration decisions or cause only temporary displacements that cannot be detected by demographic statistics. Among the long-term environmental change factors, only crop yield deviation was found to have a significant positive correlation with population redistribution. Based on two different datasets and two different decades, crop yield deviation is positively correlated with population redistribution; the correlation coefficients between crop yield deviation and population redistribution were 0.134 to 0.162 in Mexico and 0.102 to 0.235 in Ethiopia. When urbanization was considered as the control variable, the correlation coefficient between crop yield deviation and population redistribution in Mexico dropped by half, while it was almost the same in Ethiopia. However, Ethiopia’s population redistribution was more clearly influenced by the population itself. Crop yield deviation relative to water flow deviation meant changes in livelihoods. Population redistribution is a possible means of adapting to changes in livelihood. Mexico exhibited high resilience to changes in livelihoods caused by long-term environmental change, especially in its densely populated areas. In contrast, Ethiopia was characterized mainly by high population growth and low population migration. People in some areas of Ethiopia were forced to endure hardship of livelihood deterioration or to stay where they were due to the difficulty of obtaining sufficient resources to afford the cost of migration.

Not a Security Issue: How Policy Experts De-Politicize the Climate Change–Migration Nexus

Policy experts play an important role in coping with the climate change–human migration nexus. They offer expert solutions to decision makers, and thus, they contribute to de-politicizing the issue. The aim of this paper is to find out how different policy experts envision the climate change–human migration nexus. The Netherlands has been nominated as the seat of a Global Center of Excellence for climate Adaptation and aims to become a Global Center of Excellence in the water safety and security domain. Policy experts were selected based on a structured nominee process. We conducted semistructured interviews with policy experts and analyzed policy expert documentation. Interview transcripts and documents were examined via a coding frame. Unlike policymakers who link climate change and conflict, policy experts stress the economic and political factors of migration in which climate change issues happen. The major difference between the view of policymakers and policy experts on the link between climate change and human migration emerges from the frame of the climate refugee. In the context of the climate change–human migration nexus, policy experts act as a countervailing power that prevents the political exploitation of the nexus into a security issue.

Long-term predictors of dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh: A data mining approach

The effects of weather variables on the transmission of vector-borne diseases are complex. Relationships can be non-linear, specific to particular geographic locations, and involve long lag times between predictors and outbreaks of disease. This study expands the geographical and temporal range of previous studies in Bangladesh of the mosquito-transmitted viral infection dengue, a major threat to human public health in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. The analysis incorporates new compound variables such as anomalous events, running averages, consecutive days of particular weather characteristics, seasonal variables based on the traditional Bangla six-season annual calendar, and lag times of up to one year in predicting either the existence or the magnitude of each dengue epidemic. The study takes a novel, comprehensive data mining approach to show that different variables optimally predict the occurrence and extent of an outbreak. The best predictors of an outbreak are the number of rainy days in the preceding two months and the average daily minimum temperature one month prior to the outbreak, while the best predictor of the number of clinical cases is the average humidity six months prior to the month of outbreak. The magnitude of relationships between humidity 6, 7 and 8 months prior to the outbreak suggests the relationship is multifactorial, not due solely to the cyclical nature of prevailing weather conditions but likely due also to the immunocompetence of human hosts.

Landslides and Cropland Abandonment in China’s Mountainous Areas: Spatial Distribution, Empirical Analysis and Policy Implications

Cropland, as the largest land use type in the human landscape, contributes to not only biodiversity but also global food security. However, cropland abandonment not only is harmful to agricultural cultural landscapes but also threatens food security. Prior studies have suggested that changes in the social environment drive farmers to abandon cropland. In contrast, this study reveals that factors of the natural environment (e.g., landslides) have steadily and significantly affected cropland abandonment after controlling the factors of the social environment. More specifically, based on the survey data of a large sample of 4850 mountainous households in 24 provinces of China and following the theoretical framework of “environment → land use”, this study quantitatively identified the impacts of landslides on cropland abandonment in mountainous areas using the Probit and Tobit models. The results show that: (1) There is a similar spatial agglomeration trend between landslides and cropland abandonment. Namely, an area that has a high incidence of landslides also has a high incidence of cropland abandonment. (2) There is a significant and positive correlation between landslides and cropland abandonment. Namely, compared with peasants who have not suffered from landslides, the probability that peasants suffering from landslides will abandon cropland and the area abandoned increase by 6.8% and 0.064 mu, respectively. (3) Elderly farmers (over 64 years old) and the development of urbanization help curb cropland abandonment in the mountains. The results of this study may provide reference for the government to implement effective policies for managing landslides and revitalizing unused cropland resources.

A discursive review of the textual use of 'trapped' in environmental migration studies: The conceptual birth and troubled teenage years of trapped populations

First mooted in 2011, the concept of Trapped Populations referring to people unable to move from environmentally high-risk areas broadened the study of human responses to environmental change. While a seemingly straightforward concept, the underlying discourses around the reasons for being 'trapped', and the language describing the concept have profound influences on the way in which policy and practice approaches the needs of populations at risk from environmental stresses and shocks. In this article, we apply a Critical Discourse Analysis to the academic literature on the subject to reveal some of the assumptions implicit within discussing 'trapped' populations. The analysis reveals a dominant school of thought that assisted migration, relocation, and resettlement in the face of climate change are potentially effective adaptation strategies along a gradient of migrant agency and governance.

The centrality of social ties to climate migration and mental health

Climate change-related hazards and disasters, known to adversely impact physical and mental health outcomes, are also expected to result in human migration above current levels. Environmentally-motivated migration and displacement may lead to the disruption of existing social ties, with potentially adverse consequences for mobile populations as well as their family members who remain in places of origin. We propose that the disruption of social ties is a key mechanism by which climate-related migration may negatively impact mental health, in particular. Existing social ties may provide social and material resources that buffer mental health stressors related to both prolonged and acute climate events. Preparation for such events may also strengthen these same ties and protect mental health. Communities may leverage social ties, first to mitigate climate change, and second, to adapt and rebuild post-disaster in communities of origin. Additionally, social ties can inform migration decisions and destinations. For example, scholars have found that the drought-motivated adaptive migration of West African Fulbe herders only occurred because of the long-term development of social networks between migrants and non-migrants through trade and seasonal grazing. On the other hand, social ties do not always benefit mental health. Some migrants, including those from poor regions or communities with no formal safety net, may face considerable burden to provide financial and emotional resources to family members who remain in countries of origin. In destination communities, migrants often face significant social marginalization. Therefore, policies and programs that aim to maintain ongoing social ties among migrants and their family and community members may be critically important in efforts to enhance population resilience and adaptation to climate change and to improve mental health outcomes. Several online platforms, like Refugee Start Force, serve to integrate refugees by connecting migrants directly to people and services in destination communities. These efforts may increasingly draw upon novel technologies to support and maintain social networks in the context of population mobility due to climatic and other factors.

The role of land use changes in the distribution of shallow landslides

The role of land use dynamics on shallow landslide susceptibility remains an unresolved problem. Thus, this work aims to assess the influence of land use changes on shallow landslide susceptibility. Three shallow landslide-prone areas that are representative of peculiar land use settings in the Oltrepò Pavese (North Apennines) are analysed: the Rio Frate, Versa and Alta Val Tidone catchments. These areas were affected by widespread land abandonment and modifications in agricultural practices from 1954 to 2012 and relevant shallow landslide phenomena in 2009, 2013 and 2014. A multi-temporal land use change analysis allows us to evaluate the degree of transformation in the three investigated areas and the influence of these changes on the susceptibility to shallow landslides. The results show that the three catchments were characterised by pronounced land abandonment and important changes in agricultural practices. In particular, abandoned cultivated lands that gradually recovered through natural grasses, shrubs and woods were identified as the land use change classes that were most prone to shallow landslides. Additionally, the negative qualities of the agricultural maintenance practices increased the surface water runoff and consequently intensified erosion processes and instability phenomena. Although the land use was identified as the most important predisposing factor in all the study areas, some cases existed in which the predisposition of certain areas to shallow landslides was influenced by the combined effect of land use changes and the geological conditions, as highlighted by the high susceptibility of slopes that are characterised by adverse local geological (thick soils derived from clayey-marly bedrocks) and geomorphological (slope angle higher than 25°) conditions. Thus, the achieved results are particularly useful to understand the best land conservation strategies to be adopted to reduce instability phenomena and the consequent economic losses in areas that are strongly linked to agricultural land use in these territories.

Opportunities and Challenges for Investigating the Environment-Migration Nexus

Environmental change is an acknowledged factor influencing human migration. Analytical research regarding the relationship between the environment and human migration has increased in recent years yet still faces numerous hurdles, partly due to limited availability of suitable data. We review available data and methodologies for investigating the environment-migration nexus, identifying data inconsistencies resulting from the combination of different sources and illustrating the underlying reasons for them. We discuss a number of methods for investigating the environment-migration relationship, including frameworks and concepts; surveys; empirical, quantitative methods; and simulation approaches. Based on this overview, we offer recommendations for improved analyses of the environment-migration nexus including reporting data inconsistencies and uncertainties, combining approaches and data sources, and developing multiple-study approaches.

Studying Displacement After a Disaster Using Large Scale Survey Methods: Sumatra After the 2004 Tsunami

Understanding of human vulnerability to environmental change has advanced in recent years, but measuring vulnerability and interpreting mobility across many sites differentially affected by change remains a significant challenge. Drawing on longitudinal data collected on the same respondents who were living in coastal areas of Indonesia before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and were re-interviewed after the tsunami, this paper illustrates how the combination of population-based survey methods, satellite imagery and multivariate statistical analyses has the potential to provide new insights into vulnerability, mobility and impacts of major disasters on population well-being. The data are used to map and analyze vulnerability to post-tsunami displacement across the provinces of Aceh and North Sumatra and to compare patterns of migration after the tsunami between damaged areas and areas not directly affected by the tsunami. The comparison reveals that migration after a disaster is less selective overall than migration in other contexts. Gender and age, for example, are strong predictors of moving from undamaged areas but are not related to displacement in areas experiencing damage. In our analyses traditional predictors of vulnerability do not always operate in expected directions. Low levels of socioeconomic status and education were not predictive of moving after the tsunami, although for those who did move, they were predictive of displacement to a camp rather than a private home. This survey-based approach, though not without difficulties, is broadly applicable to many topics in human-environment research, and potentially opens the door to rigorous testing of new hypotheses in this literature.