Labour-market status and first-time parenthood: the experience of immigrant women in Sweden, 1981-97

Economic Cycles and Entry into Parenthood: Is the Association Changing and Does it Affect Macro-Level Trends? Micro-Level Hazard and Simulation Models of Belgian Fertility Trends, 1960-2010

The association between economic cycles-typically measured in terms of GDP growth or swings in unemployment-and macro-level fertility trends has received ample attention in the literature. Compared to studies that consider macro-level fertility, individual-based models can address the association between economic cycles and specific stages of family formation (e.g. entry into parenthood) more precisely while allowing for structural factors that contribute to fertility postponement. Using population-wide longitudinal microdata from the Belgian censuses we combine discrete-time hazard models of entry into parenthood for the period 1960 to 2010 with microsimulation models to assess whether economic cycles in tandem with educational expansion can account for year-to-year variation in the proportion of women entering parenthood and variation in the pace of fertility postponement at the macro-level. Results indicate that educational expansion has been a structural driver of fertility postponement, whereas the procyclical effect of economic cycles accounts for accelerations and decelerations of fertility postponement throughout the period considered. Microsimulation of macro-level fertility trends indicates that individual-based models predict the annual proportion of women entering parenthood and the mean age at first birth with average errors of prediction below 1 per cent and 3 months, respectively, while also showing strong correlations between first differences of observed and simulated time-series. Because the extended observation window encompasses several severe recessions, we test whether the association between economic cycles and entry into parenthood has changed over time and how this affected macro-level trends, discussing several mechanisms that may account for such temporal variation.

Interaction between childbearing and partnership trajectories among immigrants and their descendants in France: An application of multichannel sequence analysis

While there is a large literature investigating migrant marriage or fertility, little research has examined how childbearing and partnerships are interrelated. In this paper, we investigate how childbearing and partnership trajectories evolve and interact over the life course for immigrants and their descendants and how the relationship varies by migrant origin. We apply multichannel sequence analysis to rich longitudinal survey data from France and find significant differences in family-related behaviour between immigrants, their descendants, and the native French. Immigrants' family behaviour is characterized by stronger association between marriage and childbearing than in the native population. However, there are significant differences across migrant groups. Turkish immigrants exhibit the most conservative family pathways. By contrast, the family behaviour of European immigrants is similar to that of the native population. The study also demonstrates that the family behaviour of some descendant groups has gradually become indistinguishable from that of the native French, whereas for other groups significant differences in family behaviour persist.Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2022.2049856.

Introduction: Fertility and Social Inequalities in Migrant Populations: a Look at the Roles of Selection, Context of Reception, and Employment

This paper is the introduction to the Special Issue on “Fertility and social inequalities in migrant populations.” The Special Issue contains twelve empirical papers that deal with both international migrants and internal migrants, both women and men, both older migrant populations spanning several generations as well as recent immigrant groups, such as refugees, and include analyses of both behavior and intentions. The data used comprise macro indicators and individual-level data as well as qualitative material. Regional contexts include classical immigration countries in Europe and Oceania as well as relatively recent destinations. The papers draw on several comparative perspectives—migrants at destination, emigrants and stayers at origin, migrants with different numbers of children upon migration, and different migrant generations—to address three large questions. Six papers explore the role of time and sequencing in migrant fertility, in relation to both period effects and sequencing of births in the life course, as well as the role selection into migration plays in female and male migrants’ fertility behavior. Four papers focus into how regional variation in the receiving contexts shapes fertility behavior, highlighting the role of migrant type, human capital, and social capital. Two papers look at how childbearing is associated with different degrees of economic assimilation, i.e., maternal employment. Overall, this Special Issue demonstrates the large heterogeneity in fertility among migrant and ethnic minority groups. Social inequalities shape fertility differentials, which in turn influence subsequent life courses of migrants and ethnic minority group members. Future research on migrant assimilation should pay more attention to variation in demographic behavior.

Childbearing among Polish migrant women and their descendants in Sweden: an origin-destination country approach

This paper examines the childbearing behaviour of Polish migrant women and their descendants in Sweden. Also considering stayers in the country of origin, we rely on a country-of-origin and country-of-destination approach in a careful examination regarding the relevance of three hypotheses on migrant fertility: the socialisation, selection, and adaptation hypotheses. We analyse the transitions to first and second births based on a piecewise exponential model, using Swedish register data and the Polish Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) first wave. The results support the socialisation hypothesis, as the Polish stayers and the first-generation Polish migrants have their first child at younger ages and are less likely to remain childless than the other groups but are also more likely to not proceed to a second child, unlike the Swedish natives and the second generation. We find partial support for the selection hypothesis. Descriptively, we observe signs of selection into migration based on education, cohort, and marital status. Additionally, our study shows that the impact of marriage varies between stayers and migrants, in the first-birth transition, suggesting selection into migration when it comes to unobserved characteristics as well. The adaptation hypothesis is also supported, as the fertility behaviour of the second generation more closely resembles that of the Swedish natives than that of the first generation and differs more from that of the Polish stayers in terms of both quantum and timing of the first and second births.

Parental age gaps among immigrants and their descendants: Adaptation across time and generations?

Age gaps between partners have undergone dramatic changes in high-income countries over the past century. Yet, there has been little focus on age gaps for immigrants and their descendants. This is an important omission because age gaps can be interpreted as a macro-level indicator of intergenerational adaptation. We examine the age gaps of biological parents (childbearing partners) among immigrants and their descendants in Sweden, a country with high gender equality and a stable mean age gap. Using longitudinal, whole-population data, we examine changes in age gaps for cohorts born 1950-86. Cohort trends in age gaps often follow very different patterns for male and female immigrants, with limited evidence of adaptation across cohorts. However, there is considerable evidence of adaptation towards the Swedish norm among the second generation, including from direct comparison between immigrants and their children. The largest differences between women and men are seen among the first generation with a Swedish-born partner.

Moving towards the centre or the exit? Migration in population studies and in Population Studies 1996-2021

This paper examines the position of migration in population studies, focusing on the period 1996-2021. It considers the reasons why migration remains problematic for demographers, but also how approaches to migration have changed over the last 25 years. While it has arguably become more important to both demography and population studies because of the transition to low fertility and mortality, migration has metamorphosed into a complex field in its own right, almost independently from changes in demography. Both internal and international migration form the subject of this examination and four main themes are pursued: data and measurement; theories and approaches; migration and development; and migration and political demography. The papers published in the journal Population Studies are used to provide a mirror through which to view these changes over the last 25 years. This paper concludes by looking at likely future directions in migration studies, demography, and population studies.

Cohort, Policy, and Process: The Implications for Migrant Fertility in West Germany

Although a growing literature explores the relationship between migration and fertility, far less scholarship has examined how migrant childbearing varies over time, including across migrant cohorts. I extend previous research by exploring migrant-cohort differences in fertility and the role of changing composition by education and type of family migration. Using 1984-2016 German Socio-Economic Panel data, I investigate the transition into first, second, and third birth among foreign-born women in West Germany. Results from an event-history analysis reveal that education and type of family migration-including marriage migration and family reunions-contribute to differences in first birth across migrant cohorts. Specifically, more rapid entry into first birth among recent migrants from Turkey stems from a greater representation of marriage migrants across arrival cohorts, while increasing education is associated with reduced first birth propensities among recent migrants from Southern Europe. I also find variation in the risk of higher parity transitions across migrant cohorts, particularly lower third birth risks among recent arrivals from Turkey, likely a result of changing exposures within origin and destination contexts. These findings suggest that as political and socioeconomic circumstances vary within origin and destination contexts, selection, adaptation, and socialization processes jointly shape childbearing behavior.

The Fertility of Immigrants From Low-Fertility Settings: Adaptation in the Quantum and Tempo of Childbearing?

Immigrant women who have lived longer in a destination often have relatively low levels of fertility, which is sometimes taken as evidence of the adaptation of behavior. This evidence is almost exclusively based on studies of immigrants from high-fertility settings, while the fertility of immigrants from low-fertility settings has been largely overlooked. Research has also rarely studied the fertility of immigrants who migrated as children, despite the methodological advantages of applying such an approach. This study focuses on women who grew up in Sweden with a migration background from low-fertility origins. We expect that Sweden's welfare regime makes it easier for women to combine childbearing and working life, regardless of migration background, thereby facilitating an adaptation of fertility behavior toward that prevailing in Sweden. We find evidence of adaptation in terms of birth timing for at least half of the country-origin groups that we study, but very little evidence of adaptation in terms of completed fertility. Further, we find that, in comparison with ancestral Swedes, completed fertility differentials are larger for second-generation individuals than for immigrants who arrived during childhood. This is evidence against the notion of "straight-line" adaptation for immigrants and the children of immigrants who are born in Sweden.

Employment Instability and Fertility in Europe: A Meta-Analysis

The relationship between employment instability and fertility is a major topic in demographic research, with a proliferation of published papers on this matter, especially since the Great Recession. Employment instability, which most often manifests in unemployment or time-limited employment, is usually deemed to have a negative effect on fertility, although different fertility reactions are hypothesized by sociological theories, and micro-level evidence is fragmented and contradictory. We used meta-analytic techniques to synthesize European research findings, offer general conclusions about the effects of employment instability on fertility (in terms of direction and size), and rank different sources of employment instability. Our results suggest that employment instability has a nonnegligible negative effect on fertility. Men's unemployment is more detrimental for fertility than men's time-limited employment; conversely, a woman having a fixed-term contract is least likely to have a child. Next, the negative effect of employment instability on fertility has become stronger over time, and is more severe in Southern European countries, where social protection for families and the unemployed is least generous. Finally, meta-regression estimates demonstrate that failing to account for income and partner characteristics leads to an overestimation of the negative effect of employment instability on fertility. We advance the role of these two factors as potential mechanisms by which employment instability affects fertility. Overall, this meta-analysis provides the empirical foundation for new studies on the topic.

Neighbourhoods and Workplaces: Are They Related to the Fertility of Immigrants and Their Descendants? A Register-Based Study of Finland, 1999–2014

An increasing number of studies point to the existence of fertility differences between immigrants and those who are native to the receiving countries. However, despite a large body of literature covering a wide range of settings, there is a lack of research into the factors that may underlie the observed differentials. In this article, we focus on the role of population composition in residential neighbourhoods and workplaces, which are assumed to influence the convergence of the fertility patterns of immigrants with those of the host country. The study is based on individual-based register data for the residential population of Finland from 1999 to 2014. We use discrete-time event history models to analyse transitions to first, second, and third births among immigrant women and their descendants of African and Middle Eastern origin whose fertility patterns are markedly different from those of the host society. We investigate whether the proportion of co-ethnic immigrants in residential neighbourhoods and workplaces is related with the fertility adaptation among that high-fertility group. Our results suggest that among them, a higher concentration of co-ethnic immigrants in the neighbourhood is associated with an elevated propensity of having a second and third child. The association persists among child migrants and the second generation. However, a similar association is not observed between fertility and the workplace context.

Fertility Intentions Within a 3-Year Time Frame: a Comparison Between Migrant and Native Italian Women

The body of literature on the fertility of migrants in Europe has grown significantly in recent decades. The focus has mostly been on analysing their actual behaviours, and reflection on other crucial aspects extensively analysed in studies on natives has been lacking. In particular, differences between migrants’ reproductive decision-making process and that of natives are currently understudied in the European context. We will focus on the association between demographic and socio-economic characteristics and fertility intentions, comparing native Italian and migrant women in Italy. We apply logistic regression models to analyse factors associated with strong intentions to have a child (or positive fertility intention) and strong intentions not to have a child (or negative fertility intention) in the short term. We use data from the Social Condition and Integration of Foreign Citizens survey on households with at least one foreign member and from the Italian Gender and Generation Survey, both carried out at the national level by the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). Net of controlled covariates, migrant women have both higher positive and lower negative fertility intentions within a 3-year time frame than native women do. However, the patterns of fertility intentions are different for natives and migrants as a function of age, educational level, marital status, parity, homeownership and, notably, labour market status. Focusing only on migrant women, we observe that fertility intentions vary by age at arrival and time since migration and that there are significant differences by country and geographical area of birth.

Time and Generation: Parents' Integration and Children's School Performance in Sweden, 1989-2011

A central element of assimilation theory is that increasing time and number of previous immigrant generations in a host country leaves immigrants and their children more integrated and capable of navigating the host society. However, the underperformance of some immigrant groups in Sweden calls into question this relationship. Additionally, many studies regard intermarriage as an outcome of immigrant integration and rarely investigate whether integration continues after intermarriage. Using population level data from the Swedish interdisciplinary panel on 22 cohorts of ninth-grade students born between 1973 and 1995, we examine the effect of parents' time in Sweden on their children's grade point average using family fixed effects. Additionally, we investigate whether this relationship differs between "2.0" and "2.5" generation children. We find, generally, that parents' time in Sweden increases their children's educational performance, though some variation by parents' region of origin exists. This supports the idea that integration experiences in immigrant families can be transmitted across generations. Further, this generally holds for both the 2.0 and 2.5 generation children. This relationship among the 2.5 generation is notable as previous studies using a family-based approach looking at the intergenerational transmission of integration have largely focused on the children of two foreign-born parents.

Understanding How Immigrant Fertility Differentials Vary over the Reproductive Life Course

Studies of immigrant fertility differentials indicate that foreign-born women have more children than native-born women, at least for some origin groups. Yet little is known about variation in cumulative fertility differentials over the life course, including the extent to which this variation develops into completed fertility differentials. This research responds with an analysis of cumulative fertility differentials in the UK for a cohort of women born between 1942 and 1971. Findings are consistent with age-specific patterns that have been documented for immigrant groups in the UK, but underline the importance of taking a cohort perspective, which helps to distinguish between the tempo and quantum of fertility. Immigrants have significantly higher completed fertility than UK-born natives if they were born in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Jamaica, or Western and Central Africa, but the profile of their cumulative fertility differentials—versus the UK-born—varies considerably over the life course, especially by age at migration. For example, women from Bangladesh and Pakistan have similar levels of cumulative fertility at age 40, but very different age patterns of cumulative fertility from ages 20–40. There is a consistent pattern of relatively delayed Pakistani fertility at early ages, especially for those arriving at later ages, but the same is not true for women from Bangladesh. Overall, these results imply that researchers should beware of variation in cohort fertility over the life course—with respect to both the quantum and tempo of fertility—when analysing immigrant childbearing, in addition to variation by origin and age at arrival.

Cultural Dissimilarity and Intermarriage. A Longitudinal Study of Immigrants in Sweden 1990–2005

Intermarriage with natives is a key indicator of immigrant integration. This article studies intermarriage for 138 immigrant groups in Sweden, using longitudinal individual level data. It shows great variation in marriage patterns across immigrant populations, ranging from over 70 percent endogamy in some immigrants groups to below 5 percent in other groups. Although part of this variation is explained by human capital and the structure of the marriage market, cultural factors (values, religion, and language) play an important role as well. Immigrants from culturally more dissimilar countries are less likely to intermarry with natives, and instead more prone to endogamy.

Mother Tongue, Host Country Earnings, and Return Migration: Evidence from Cross-National Administrative Records

Using a unique database constructed through the merging of administrative records from Sweden and Finland, we provide the first detailed examination of differential return migration risks by people's mother tongue within a given nationality. We analyze whether the divergence in return migration risk between Swedish-speaking and Finnish-speaking Finns in Sweden relates to host country earnings, considering that the former group are in parity with native Swedes. Host country earnings and other background variables are found to explain only a modest part of the difference in return migration risk. Variation in the return migration risk of labor migrants is consequently not solely a result of earnings differentials.

Fertility Change among Post-1989 Immigrants to Israel from the Former Soviet Union

Research on the evolution of immigrant fertility patterns has focused on the expected reduction in fertility among immigrants from high fertility, less developed countries who arrive in relatively low-fertility developed societies. The current research considers a different context in which immigrants from the low-fertility Former Soviet Union arrive in a relatively high-fertility setting in Israel. This research context allows us to test various theories of immigrant fertility, which cannot normally be distinguished empirically. Results from Cox multivariate regressions of parity-specific progression do not support assimilation theory, which would predict an increase in fertility following migration, in this context. We interpret the very low fertility rates of the FSU immigrants in Israel, relative to all relevant comparison groups, in terms of the economic uncertainty and hardship experienced during a difficult transition period by immigrants who have high aspirations for social mobility in their destination society.

The Intergenerational Assimilation of Completed Fertility: Comparing the Convergence of Different Origin Groups

Recent studies have highlighted the need for new research on intergenerational assimilation and how it varies for different origin groups. This article responds by studying the intergenerational assimilation of completed fertility in the United Kingdom. The results provide evidence of assimilation for some origins, in particular for women from Ireland and Jamaica. Yet results also show evidence against assimilation for second-generation Pakistanis and Bangladeshis. The ability of the method used to distinguish between origin groups highlights the importance of a robust statistical approach that takes account of heterogeneity, an approach that can also be used to study outcomes other than fertility.

Employment After Parenthood: Women of Migrant Origin and Natives Compared

Motherhood negatively affects female employment in majority populations across Europe. Although employment levels are particularly low among women of migrant origin, little is known about the motherhood-employment link in migrant populations. This paper investigates whether family formation differentially affects the labour market position of migrant women and their descendants compared to natives. Using longitudinal microdata from the Belgian social security registers, 12,167 women are followed from 12 months before until 48 months after the birth of their first child for the period 1999-2010. Levels of activity (versus inactivity), employment (versus unemployment) and full-time employment (versus part-time employment) are compared between natives and first- and second-generation women of Southern European, Eastern European, Turkish and Moroccan origin. We find that activity and employment levels decrease to a larger extent following the transition to parenthood among women of migrant origin than among natives. With respect to activity levels, differences between second-generation women and natives are largely explained by socio-demographic and pre-birth job characteristics, while differences between first-generation women and natives are not, suggesting that other factors such as tied migration patterns determine labour market attachment among first-generation mothers. With respect to employment levels, unemployment is increasing more among women of migrant origin of both generations than among natives, also when controlling for background characteristics, which signals differential access to stable job positions as well as to family policies. In sum, the results draw attention to the challenge that parenthood creates for mothers of migrant origin in terms of retaining and gaining employment, but also to the role of labour market entry and early career positions.

Differences in labour force participation by motherhood status among second-generation Turkish and majority women across Europe

Second-generation Turkish immigrants make up an increasingly important segment of European labour markets. These young adults are entering the prime working ages and forming families. However, we have only a limited understanding of the relationship between labour force participation and parenthood among second-generation Turkish women. Using unique data from the Integration of the European Second Generation survey (2007/08), we compared the labour force participation of second-generation Turkish women with their majority-group counterparts by motherhood status in four countries. We found evidence that motherhood gaps, with respect to labour force participation, were similar for majority and second-generation Turkish women in Germany and in Sweden; however, there may be larger gaps for second-generation mothers than for majority women in the Netherlands and France. Cross-national findings were consistent with the view that national normative and social policy contexts are relevant for the labour force participation of all women, regardless of migrant background.

Marriage Migration Versus Family Reunification: How Does the Marriage and Migration History Affect the Timing of First and Second Childbirth Among Turkish Immigrants in Germany?

Our study focuses on the fertility of first-generation female and male Turkish migrants in Germany. To evaluate whether timing effects such as fertility disruption or an interrelation of marriage, migration and childbirth occur, we examine first and second births in the years before and after immigration to Germany. The Turkish sample of the Generations and Gender Survey which was conducted in 2006 offers the unique opportunity to examine Turkish immigrants as a single immigrant category. We question the common understanding that Turkish immigrants who arrived to Germany after 1973 mainly arrived for family reunification resulting in high birth intensities immediately after immigration. To distinguish different circumstances under which male and female immigrants have arrived to Germany, we include the combined marriage and migration history of the couple. We find that first birth probabilities are elevated during the years immediately following migration. But this effect is not universal among migrants with different marriage and migration histories. It appears that the arrival effect of high birth intensities is particularly high among female immigrants and is evident only among marriage migrants, that is Turks who married a partner who already lived in Germany at the time of the wedding. By contrast, among those who immigrated for family reunification, we do not find such an arrival effect.

Wealth, fertility and adaptive behaviour in industrial populations

The lack of association between wealth and fertility in contemporary industrialized populations has often been used to question the value of an evolutionary perspective on human behaviour. Here, we first present the history of this debate, and the evolutionary explanations for why wealth and fertility (the number of children) are decoupled in modern industrial settings. We suggest that the nature of the relationship between wealth and fertility remains an open question because of the multi-faceted nature of wealth, and because existing cross-sectional studies are ambiguous with respect to how material wealth and fertility are linked. A literature review of longitudinal studies on wealth and fertility shows that the majority of these report positive effects of wealth, although levels of fertility seem to fall below those that would maximize fitness. We emphasize that reproductive decision-making reflects a complex interplay between individual and societal factors that resists simple evolutionary interpretation, and highlight the role of economic insecurity in fertility decisions. We conclude by discussing whether the wealth-fertility relationship can inform us about the adaptiveness of modern fertility behaviour, and argue against simplistic claims regarding maladaptive behaviour in humans.

The dangers of using 'negative durations' to estimate pre- and post-migration fertility

To keep childbearing that occurs before and after migration separate from each other, many analysts apply a technique that uses 'negative durations' to estimate the childbearing risks that migrants have before they migrate. This strategy can lead to incorrect results and should be abandoned. In this research note, we use data for births and internal migration in Sweden to highlight how the two types of behaviour can be kept apart conceptually and analytically without use of 'negative durations'. The procedures used can easily be generalized to any similarly linked pair of behaviours.

Use It or Save It? Migration Background and Parental Leave Uptake in Sweden

Sweden is a welfare state with a family policy that strongly emphasizes equality without distinction by place of birth or gender. In this study, we investigate the differences in uptake of parental leave between native and immigrant mothers, and the connection to labour-market attachment. Sweden represents a unique case study, not only because of the strong effort to combine work and family for all women and men, the high level of fertility and the large presence of immigrants in the country; it also enables a detailed and sophisticated analysis based on the high-quality data derived from its population registers. We find that immigrant mothers use more parental leave benefit the first year after their child's birth, but then fewer in the second year compared with native mothers. The differences diminish when labour-market activity is controlled for. Additionally, after a time in Sweden, immigrant mothers use leave more similarly to how native mothers do.

Persisting Differences or Adaptation to German Fertility Patterns? First and Second Birth Behavior of the 1.5 and Second Generation Turkish Migrants in Germany

In this study, we use data of the German Mikrozensus to explore first and second birth behavior of migrants' descendants. Whereas prior waves of the Mikrozensus only included respondents' citizenship, in the survey years 2005 and 2009 also parental citizenship has been surveyed. This allows us to identify respondents' migrant backgrounds, even if they have German citizenship. We distinguish those who migrated as children (1.5 generation) from those who were born to Turkish parents in Germany (second generation migrants). We compare both migrant generations to German non-migrants. Using discrete-time hazard models, our results show that 1.5 generation migrants have the highest probability of having a first and second birth, while German non-migrants have the lowest birth probabilities. The second generation lies in-between. This pattern also persists after taking the educational attainment of respondents into consideration. However, there seems to be an adaptation of highly educated second generation Turkish migrants to non-migrant Germans: we find no significant differences in the probability of having a first birth in the two groups. For second births, we do not find this pattern which might be related to the young age structure in the sample of second generation migrants.

The dangers of conditioning on the time of occurrence of one demographic process in the analysis of another

In studies of the fertility of migrants in which the data are confined to the migrants only, estimation bias will normally appear in comparisons of childbearing before and after migration. The same issue arises in studies of union formation before and after first birth, marriage formation before and after home purchase, and in any other comparison of behaviour before and after an index event if one confines the study only to those who have experienced the index event. It is normally better to avoid analysis of behaviour before the index event because such analysis actually conditions on the later arrival of the index event. In this paper, we provide graphical and mathematical representations of this problem and show how one can get a meaningful (unconditional) comparison of behaviour before and after the index event provided the data contain enough information for both sub-periods. Otherwise, the analyst should refrain from making a comparison of this nature.

Small Effects of Selective Migration and Selective Survival in Retrospective Studies of Fertility: Faibles effets de sélection de la migration et de la mortalité sur la fécondité dans les études rétrospectives

In this study, we assess the accuracy of fertility estimates that stem from the retrospective information that can be derived from an existing cross-sectional population. Swedish population registers contain information on the childbearing of all people ever registered as living in Sweden, and thus allow us to avoid problems of selectivity by the virtue of survival or nonemigration when estimating the fertility measures for previous calendar periods. We calculate two types of fertility rates for each year in 1961-1999: (i) rates that are based on the population that was living in Sweden at the end of 1999, and (ii) rates that also include information on people who had died or emigrated before the turn of the twentieth century. We find that the omission of information on individuals who had emigrated or died, as the situation would be in any demographic survey, most often have negligible effects on fertility measures. However, first-birth rates of immigrants gradually become more biased as we move back in time from 1999 so that they increasingly tend to over-estimate the true fertility of that population.

Sweden's marriage revival: an analysis of the new-millennium switch from long-term decline to increasing popularity

Usually seen as a forerunner in the development of new trends in family-demographic behaviour, Sweden has recently experienced a reversal in marriage trends, from a steady decline in marriage rate between the 1960s and 1990s, to a steady increase beginning in 1998. An event-history analysis of women's first marriages in the period 1991-2007, using register data, shows that compositional changes in labour-market activity and childbearing can only partly explain the reversal, and that apparently no part of it is explained by compositional changes in age, country of birth, educational level, and type of settlement. The evidence suggests that the popularity of marriage in Sweden is increasing, in contrast to what might be expected from the way demographic trends in Sweden and other Western countries are often portrayed in the literature.