Infant death clustering in families: magnitude, causes, and the influence of better health services, Bangladesh 1982-2005

Net benefit of smaller human populations to environmental integrity and individual health and wellbeing

Introduction

The global human population is still growing such that our collective enterprise is driving environmental catastrophe. Despite a decline in average population growth rate, we are still experiencing the highest annual increase of global human population size in the history of our species-averaging an additional 84 million people per year since 1990. No review to date has accumulated the available evidence describing the associations between increasing population and environmental decline, nor solutions for mitigating the problems arising.

Methods

We summarize the available evidence of the relationships between human population size and growth and environmental integrity, human prosperity and wellbeing, and climate change. We used PubMed, Google Scholar, and Web of Science to identify all relevant peer-reviewed and gray-literature sources examining the consequences of human population size and growth on the biosphere. We reviewed papers describing and quantifying the risks associated with population growth, especially relating to climate change.

Results

These risks are global in scale, such as greenhouse-gas emissions, climate disruption, pollution, loss of biodiversity, and spread of disease-all potentially catastrophic for human standards of living, health, and general wellbeing. The trends increasing the risks of global population growth are country development, demographics, maternal education, access to family planning, and child and maternal health.

Conclusion

Support for nations still going through a demographic transition is required to ensure progress occurs within planetary boundaries and promotes equity and human rights. Ensuring the wellbeing for all under this aim itself will lower population growth and further promote environmental sustainability.

Neonatal and Postneonatal Death Clustering Among Siblings in Bangladesh: Evidence from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2017-2018

Despite knowledge of neonatal and postneonatal mortality determinants in Bangladesh, some families continue to lose a larger share of children, a phenomenon known as early-life mortality clustering. This study uses the random intercept Weibull survival regression model to explore the correlation of mortality risk among siblings at the family (or, mother) and community levels. Utilizing the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2017-2018, we found evidence of death scarring, where children whose previous sibling was not alive at the time of conception had significantly higher odds of neonatal mortality. Moreover, the neonatal (and postneonatal) mortality hazard was highest for children with a birth interval of fewer than 19 months, corresponding to the preceding sibling. The intraclass correlation coefficient's statistically significant values show that neonatal and postneonatal mortality risk is correlated among children of the same family and community. The findings suggest focusing on high-risk families and communities to reduce the mortality level effectively.

Clustering of child deaths among families in low and middle-income countries: A meta-analysis

Background and Aims

Several studies have examined the phenomenon of "death clustering," in which two or more children born to the same mother or from the same family die at an early age. Therefore, a scientific examination of the results is essential to understand how the survival status of the older siblings affects the survival of the younger siblings. By using meta-analysis, this study aims to provide a quantitative synthesis of the results of studies on "child death clustering" in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Methods

This study followed the PRISMA-P 2015 guidelines. We used four electronic databases-PubMed, Medline, Scopus, and Google Scholar with search and citation analysis capabilities. Initially, 140 studies were identified, but only 27 met the eligibility criteria eventually. These were studies that had used the death of a previous child as a covariate to determine the survival status of the index child. The heterogeneity and the publication bias of the studies were examined using the Cochran test, I ² statistic, and Egger's meta-regression test.

Results

The pooled estimate of 114 study estimates for LMICs contains some bias. India's 37 study estimates were distributed more or less equally along the middle line, indicating no publication bias, while there was a slight bias in the estimates for Africa, Latin America, and Bangladesh. The odds of experiencing the death of the index child in the selected LMICs were 2.3 times higher for mothers who had lost any prior child as compared to those mothers who had not had any prior child loss. For African mothers, the odds were five times higher, whereas for Indian mothers, the odds were 1.66 times higher. Mothers' characteristics, such as education, occupation, health-seeking behavior, and maternal competence, significantly affect the child's survival status.

Conclusion

Achieving the sustainable development goals would not be possible if mothers in countries experiencing high levels of under-five mortality are not provided with better health and nutrition facilities. Mothers who have lost multiple children should be targeted for assistance.

Infant Death Clustering in the Quarter of a Century in India: A Decomposition Analysis

The study aims to examine the clustering of infant deaths in India and the relative contribution of infant death clustering after accounting for the socio-economic and biodemographic factors that explain the decline in infant deaths. The study utilized 10 years of birth history data from three rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS). The random effects dynamic probit model was used to decompose the decline in infant deaths into the contributions by the socio-economic and demographic factors, including the lagged independent variable, the previous infant death measuring the clustering of infant deaths in families. The study found that there has been a decline in the clustering of infant deaths among families during the past two and half decades. The simulation result shows that if the clustering of infant deaths in families in India was completely removed, there would be a decline of nearly 30 percent in the infant mortality rate (IMR). A decomposition analysis based on the dynamic probit model shows that for NFHS-1 and NFHS-3, in the total change of the probability of infant deaths, the rate of change for a given population composition contributed around 45 percent, and about 44 percent was explained by a compositional shift. Between NFHS-3 and NFHS-4, the rate of change for a given population composition contributed 86%, and the population composition for a given rate contributed 10% to the total change in the probability of infant deaths. Within this rate, the contribution of a previous infant was 0.8% and the mother's age was 10%; nearly 31% was contributed by the region of residence, 69% by the mother's education, and around 20% was contributed by the wealth index and around 8.7% by the sex of the child. The mother's unobserved factors contributed more than 50 percent to the variability of infant deaths in all the survey rounds and was also statistically significant (p < 0.01). Bivariate analysis suggests that women with two or more infant losses were much less likely to have full immunization (10%) than women with no infant loss (62%), although institutional delivery was high among both groups of women.

Examining infant and child death clustering among families in the cross-sectional and nationally representative Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2017-2018

OBJECTIVES

We aim to examine the phenomenon of infant and child death clustering while considering the unobserved heterogeneity (frailty) at the family level.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

We analysed Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2017-2018 data, including the birth history information for 47 828 children born to 18 134 women. We used Gompertz shared frailty model to control the correlation between event times at the mother level and capture the unobserved risks in infant and child deaths.

OUTCOME MEASURES

We estimated two sets of survival regression models where the failure event is the survival status of the index child during the infancy period, that is, from birth to 11 months, and childhood period, that is, between 12 and 59 months, respectively. All children who died during infancy and childhood were coded as 'yes'; otherwise, they were coded as 'no'.

RESULTS

About 2% of mothers experienced two or more infant deaths, and cumulatively these mothers account for 20% of all infant deaths in the sample. Children whose previous sibling was not alive at the time of their conception had 1.86 times (95% CI 1.59 to 2.17) more risk of dying as an infant. However, we did not find a statistically significant effect of death scarring on the risk of child mortality among siblings. Statistically significant frailty effect with a variance of 0.33 (95% CI CI 0.17 to 0.65) and 0.54 (95% CI 0.14 to 2.03)] in infancy and childhood, respectively, indicates the clustering of survival risks within families due to unobserved family-level characteristics shared by the siblings.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that preceding birth interval, mother's age at first birth and mother's education are the most critical factors which can help in reducing scaring effect on infant mortality. Additionally, women from poor socioeconomic strata should be focused on as still an infant, and child mortality is concentrated among poor households.

What have we learned about mortality patterns over the past 25 years?

In this paper, I examine progress in the field of mortality over the past 25 years. I argue that we have been most successful in taking advantage of an increasingly data-rich environment to improve aggregate mortality models and test pre-existing theories. Less progress has been made in relating our estimates of mortality risk at the individual level to broader mortality patterns at the population level while appropriately accounting for contextual differences and compositional change. Overall, I find that the field of mortality continues to be highly visible in demographic journals, including Population Studies. However much of what is published today in field journals could just as easily appear in neighbouring disciplinary journals, as disciplinary boundaries are shrinking.

Has demography witnessed a data revolution? Promises and pitfalls of a changing data ecosystem

Over the past 25 years, technological improvements that have made the collection, transmission, storage, and analysis of data significantly easier and more cost efficient have ushered in what has been described as the 'big data' era or the 'data revolution'. In the social sciences context, the data revolution has often been characterized in terms of increased volume and variety of data, and much excitement has focused on the growing opportunity to repurpose data that are the by-products of the digitalization of social life for research. However, many features of the data revolution are not new for demographers, who have long used large-scale population data and been accustomed to repurposing imperfect data not originally collected for research. Nevertheless, I argue that demography, too, has been affected by the data revolution, and the data ecosystem for demographic research has been significantly enriched. These developments have occurred across two dimensions. The first involves the augmented granularity, variety, and opportunities for linkage that have bolstered the capabilities of 'old' big population data sources, such as censuses, administrative data, and surveys. The second involves the growing interest in and use of 'new' big data sources, such as 'digital traces' generated through internet and mobile phone use, and related to this, the emergence of 'digital demography'. These developments have enabled new opportunities and offer much promise moving forward, but they also raise important ethical, technical, and conceptual challenges for the field.

Differential in infant, childhood and under-five death clustering among the empowered and non-empowered action group regions in India

Background

With 8,82,000 deaths in the under-five period, India observed varied intra-state and inter-regional differences across infant and child mortality in 2018. However, scarce literature is present to capture this unusual concentration of mortality in certain families by examining the association of the mortality risks among the siblings of those families along with various unobserved characteristics of the mother. Looking towards the regional and age differential in mortality, this paper attempts to provide evidence for the differential in mortality clustering among infants (aged 0–11 months), children (12–59 months) and under-five (0–59 months) period among mothers from the Empowered Action Group (EAG) and non-EAG regions of India.

Methods

The study used data from the National Family Health Survey (2015–16) which includes all the birth histories of 475,457 women aged 15–49 years. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were used to fulfil the objectives of the study. A two-level random intercept Weibull regression model was used to account for the unexplained mother (family) level heterogeneity.

Results

About 3.3% and 5.9% of infant deaths and 0.8% and 1.6% of childhood deaths were observed in non-EAG and EAG regions respectively. Among them, a higher percentage of infant and child death was observed due to the death of a previous sibling. There were 1.67 times [95% CI: 1.55–1.80] and 1.46 times [CI: 1.37–1.56] higher odds of infant and under-five mortality of index child respectively when the previous sibling at the time of conception of the index child was dead in the non-EAG regions. In contrast, the odds of death scarring (death of previous sibling scars the survival of index child) were 1.38 times [CI: 1.32–1.44] and 1.24 times [CI: 1.20–1.29] higher for infant and under-five mortality respectively in the EAG regions.

Conclusion

The extent of infant and child mortality clustering and unobserved heterogeneity was higher among mothers in the non-EAG regions in comparison to their EAG region counterparts. With the growing situation of under-five mortality clustering in non-EAG states, region-wise interventions are recommended. Additionally, proper care is needed to ameliorate the inter-family variation in mortality risk among the children of both EAG and non-EAG regions throughout their childhood.

Severe dehydration among cholera patients in Yemen: A cohort profile

Introduction

Introduction Cholera, an acute diarrheal illness caused by ingestion of food or water contaminated with Vibrio cholerae, is one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality globally. The occurrence of outbreaks of cholera are difficult to prevent in low and middle-income countries, especially those under armed conflicts.

Methods

This study aimed to describe the characteristics of a cohort of inpatients with cholera in two main hospitals in Taiz and Sana'a, Yemen, between 3^rd February 2017 and 8^th December 2017. Patient data were entered into an excel database and analyzed using STATA 16.1. Descriptive summaries of patient's data were presented as frequencies and percentages. Patients' demographic and clinical characteristics were compared using the Chi-square test.

Results

Preliminary findings from 172 hospitalizations for cholera during the study period include 163 that were severely dehydrated (94.8%). Age, education, hand hygiene, sanitation, water source, stool content and malnutrition were significantly associated with severe dehydration.

Conclusions

This data contributes to a greater understanding of the associated risk factors for the occurrence of the infectious disease in the study region. Future study will analyze the risks for severe dehydration and diarrhea, and the associated healthcare costs.

Prevalence and clustering of diarrhoea within households in India: some evidence from NFHS-4, 2015-16

Diarrhoeal disease is one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality in children and is usually measured at individual level. Shared household attributes, such as improved water supply and sanitation, expose those living in the same household to these same risk factors for diarrhoea. The occurrence of diarrhoea in two or more children in the same household is termed 'diarrhoea clustering'. The aim of this study was to examine the role of improved water supply and sanitation in the occurrence of diarrhoea, and the clustering of diarrhoea in households, among under-five children in India. Data were taken from the fourth round of the National Family and Health Survey (NFHS-4), a nationally representative survey which interviewed 699,686 women from 601,509 households in the country. If any child was reported to have diarrhoea in a household in the 2 weeks preceding the survey, the household was designated a diarrhoeal household. Household clustering of diarrhoea was defined the occurrence of diarrhoea in more than one child in households with two or more children. The analysis was done at the household level separately for diarrhoeal households and clustering of diarrhoea in households. The presence of clustering was tested using a chi-squared test. The overall prevalences of diarrhoea and clustering of diarrhoea were examined using exogenous variables. Odds ratios, standardized to allow comparison across categories, were computed. The household prevalence of diarrhoea was 12% and that of clustering of diarrhoea was 2.4%. About 6.5% of households contributed 12.6% of the total diarrhoeal cases. Access to safe water and sanitation was shown to have a great impact on reducing diarrhoeal prevalence and clustering across different household groups. Safe water alone had a greater impact on reducing the prevalence in the absence of improved sanitation when compared with the presence of improved sanitation. It may be possible to reduce the prevalence of diarrhoea in households by targeting those households with more than one child in the under-five age group with the provision of safe water and improved sanitation.

Higher offspring mortality with short interbirth intervals in free-ranging rhesus macaques

Short birth intervals have long been linked to adverse child outcomes in humans. However, it remains unclear the extent to which the birth interval has a direct influence on offspring mortality, independent of the confounding effects of modern environments and human sociocultural practices on reproductive behavior. Outside of humans, the relationship between birth intervals and offspring mortality has been rarely tested, leaving an open question of how much the findings from humans imply evolutionarily conserved mechanisms. Here, using ∼9,000 birth records from ∼1,400 free-ranging rhesus macaque mothers, we show that short birth intervals preceding or succeeding the birth of an offspring are both associated with higher offspring mortality, after controlling for heterogeneity across mothers and birth cohorts. We clarify that the mortality risk of a short birth interval to an offspring is contingent on the survival of its older or younger sibling, the condition that reduces maternal resources for investment in the offspring. This finding suggests that life-history tradeoffs between offspring quantity (a short birth interval) and quality (offspring survival) form an evolutionary force shaping variation in birth intervals. Consistent with the well-known observation made in humans, we also found a nonlinear relationship between the preceding interbirth interval and infant mortality. The overall congruence with the findings from the human literature indicates a robust relationship between birth intervals and offspring mortality.

Risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes associated with short and long birth intervals in Bangladesh: evidence from six Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys, 1996-2014

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effect of short (<36 months) and long (≥60 months) birth intervals on adverse pregnancy outcomes in Bangladesh.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

We analysed data from six Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (1996-1997, 1999-2000, 2004, 2007, 2011 and 2014). We included all singleton non-first live births, most recently born to mothers within 5 years preceding each survey (n=21 382). We defined birth interval according to previous research which suggests that a birth interval between 36 and 59 months is the most ideal interval. Bivariate and multivariable analyses were conducted to obtain the crude and adjusted ORs (aOR) respectively to assess the odds of first-day neonatal death, early neonatal death and small birth size for both short (<36 months) and long (≥60 months) spacing between births.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

First-day neonatal death, early neonatal death and small birth size.

RESULTS

In the multivariable analysis, compared with births spaced 36-59 months, infants with a birth interval of <36 months had increased odds of first-day neonatal death (aOR: 2.11, 95% CI: 1.17 to 3.78) and early neonatal death (aOR: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.13 to 2.22). Compared with births spaced 36-59 months, infants with a birth interval of ≥60 months had increased odds of first-day neonatal death (aOR: 2.02, 95% CI: 1.10 to 3.73) and small birth size (aOR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.34). When there was a history of any previous pregnancy loss, there was an increase in the odds of first-day and early neonatal death for both short and long birth intervals, although it was not significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Birth intervals shorter than 36 months and longer than 59 months are associated with increased odds of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Care-providers, programme managers and policymakers could focus on promoting an optimal birth interval between 36 and 59 months in postpartum family planning.

Death of preceding child and maternal healthcare services utilisation in Nigeria: investigation using lagged logit models

BACKGROUND

One of the factors responsible for high level of childhood mortality in Nigeria is poor utilization of maternal healthcare (MHC) services. Another important perspective which has been rarely explored is the influence of childhood death on MHC service utilization. In this study, we examined the relationship between death of preceding child and MHC services utilization [antenatal care (ANC), skilled attendant at birth (SAB), and postnatal care (PNC)] among Nigerian women and across the six geo-political zones of the country.

METHODOLOGY

We analyzed reproductive history dataset for 16,747 index births extracted from the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. The main explanatory variable was survival status of preceding child; therefore, only second or higher order births were considered. Analysis involved the use of descriptive statistics and lagged logit models fitted for each measure of MHC utilization. Association and statistical significance were expressed as adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with 95% confidence interval.

RESULTS

The use of MCH services for most recent births in the 2013 Nigeria DHS were ANC (56.0%), SAB (34.7%), and PNC (27.3%). Univariate models revealed that the death of preceding child was associated with lesser likelihood of ANC (OR = 0.64, CI 0.57-0.71), SAB (OR = 0.56, CI 0.50-0.63), and PNC (OR = 0.65, CI 0.55-0.69). Following adjustment for maternal socio-economic and bio-demographic variables, statistical significance in the relationship disappeared for the three MHC indicators: ANC (AOR = 1.00, CI 0.88-1.14), SAB (AOR = 0.97, CI 0.81-1.15), and PNC (AOR = 0.95, CI 0.83-1.11). There were no significant variations across the six geo-political regions in Nigeria. The likelihood of ANC utilization was higher when the preceding child died in Northcentral (AOR = 1.19, CI 0.84-1.70), Northeast (AOR = 1.26, CI 0.99-1.59), and South-south (AOR = 1.19, CI 0.72-1.99) regions while the reverse is the case in Southeast (AOR = 0.39, CI 0.23-0.60). For the Southeast, similar result was obtained for ANC, SAB, and PNC.

CONCLUSION

Death of a preceding child does not predict MHC services use in Nigeria especially when maternal socio-economic characteristics are controlled. Variations across the Northern and Southern regions did not attain statistical significance. Interventions are needed to reverse the pattern such that greater MHC utilization is recorded among women who have experienced child death.

Early-life mortality clustering in families: A literature review

Research on early-life mortality in contemporary and historical populations has shown that infant and child mortality tend to cluster in a limited number of high-mortality families, a phenomenon known as 'mortality clustering'. This paper is the first to review the literature on the role of the family in early-life mortality. Contemporary results, methodological and theoretical shortfalls, recent developments, and opportunities for future research are all discussed in this review. Four methodological approaches are distinguished: those based on sibling deaths, mother heterogeneity, thresholds, and excess deaths in populations. It has become clear from research to date that the death of an older child harms the survival chances of younger children in that family, and that fertility behaviour, earlier stillbirths, remarriages, and socio-economic status all explain mortality clustering to some extent.

Relationships between infant mortality, birth spacing and fertility in Matlab, Bangladesh

Although research on the fertility response to childhood mortality is widespread in demographic literature, very few studies focused on the two-way causal relationships between infant mortality and fertility. Understanding the nature of such relationships is important in order to design effective policies to reduce child mortality and improve family planning. In this study, we use dynamic panel data techniques to analyse the causal effects of infant mortality on birth intervals and fertility, as well as the causal effects of birth intervals on mortality in rural Bangladesh, accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and reverse causality. Simulations based upon the estimated model show whether (and to what extent) mortality and fertility can be reduced by breaking the causal links between short birth intervals and infant mortality. We find a replacement effect of infant mortality on total fertility of about 0.54 children for each infant death in the comparison area with standard health services. Eliminating the replacement effect would lengthen birth intervals and reduce the total number of births, resulting in a fall in mortality by 2.45 children per 1000 live births. These effects are much smaller in the treatment area with extensive health services and information on family planning, where infant mortality is smaller, birth intervals are longer, and total fertility is lower. In both areas, we find evidence of boy preference in family planning.

SIBLING- AND FAMILY-LEVEL CLUSTERING OF UNDERWEIGHT CHILDREN IN NORTHERN INDIA

Child undernutrition remains a major child health and developmental issue in low- and middle-income countries. The concentration (clustering) of underweight children among siblings at the family level is known to exist in India. This study examined the extent and covariates of clustering of underweight children at the sibling and family level in Uttar Pradesh, the largest state of northern India. Clustering of underweight (low weight-for-age) children was assessed using data on 7533 under-five children from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) conducted in 2005-06, analysed using binary logistic and binomial regression models. Related bio-demographic, socioeconomic and health care variables were used as covariates in the models. The odds of being underweight for the index child were about two times higher (OR=2.34, p<0.001) if any of the siblings within the household was malnourished or underweight. A longer birth interval increased the odds of a child being underweight. The odds of underweight were significantly lower (OR=0.69, p<0.001) for children born to normal-weight mothers compared with those born to underweight mothers. Similarly, the odds of underweight were significantly lower (OR=0.49, p=0.01) for children born to educated mothers (high school and above) compared with those born to illiterate mothers. The results of the binomial regression model suggested that the deviations between observed and expected number of children were positive (3.09, 3.78 and 2.71) for 1, 2 and 2+ underweight children within the households of underweight women, indicating the concentration of underweight children among underweight/malnourished mothers. Underweight children were found to be clustered among underweight mothers with multiple underweight siblings. The findings suggest that policy interventions need to focus on underweight mothers with multiple underweight children.

Determinants and consequences of short birth interval in rural Bangladesh: a cross-sectional study

Background

Short birth intervals are known to have negative effects on pregnancy outcomes. We analysed data from a large population surveillance system in rural Bangladesh to identify predictors of short birth interval and determine consequences of short intervals on pregnancy outcomes.

Methods

The study was conducted in three districts of Bangladesh – Bogra, Moulavibazar and Faridpur (population 282,643, 54,668 women of reproductive age). We used data between January 2010 and June 2011 from a key informant surveillance system that recorded all births, deaths and stillbirths. Short birth interval was defined as an interval between consecutive births of less than 33 months. Initially, risk factors of a short birth interval were determined using a multivariate mixed effects logistic regression model. Independent risk factors were selected using a priori knowledge from literature review. An adjusted mixed effects logistic regression model was then used to determine the effect of up to 21-, 21-32-, 33-44- and 45-month and higher birth-to-birth intervals on pregnancy outcomes controlling for confounders selected through a directed acyclic graph.

Results

We analysed 5,571 second or higher order deliveries. Average birth interval was 55 months and 1368/5571 women (24.6%) had a short birth interval (<33 months). Younger women (AOR 1.11 95% CI 1.08-1.15 per year increase in age), women who started their reproductive life later (AOR 0.95, 0.92-0.98 per year) and those who achieve higher order parities were less likely to experience short birth intervals (AOR 0.28, 0.19-0.41 parity 4 compared to 1). Women who were socioeconomically disadvantaged were more likely to experience a short birth interval (AOR 1.42, 1.22-1.65) and a previous adverse outcome was an important determinant of interval (AOR 2.10, 1.83-2.40). Very short birth intervals of less than 21 months were associated with increased stillbirth rate (AOR 2.13, 95% CI 1.28-3.53) and neonatal mortality (AOR 2.28 95% CI 1.28-4.05).

Conclusions

Birth spacing remains a reproductive health problem in Bangladesh. Disadvantaged women are more likely to experience short birth intervals and to have increased perinatal deaths. Research into causal pathways and strategies to improve spacing between pregnancies should be intensified.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12884-014-0427-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Cause-specific neonatal deaths in rural Bangladesh, 1987-2005: levels, trends, and determinants

This paper reports on an analysis of neonatal mortality from communicable and non-communicable diseases in Bangladesh. The competing-risks model employed incorporated both observed and unobserved heterogeneity and allowed the two heterogeneity terms to be correlated. The data used came from the Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Matlab. The results confirm the conclusions of previous studies about the levels, trends, and causes of neonatal death in the Matlab area: the education of the mother helps protect her children from death from both communicable and non-communicable diseases; the children of a father in a low-status occupation are particularly vulnerable to death from communicable diseases; and children born to mothers aged less than 20 face a particularly high risk of dying from a non-communicable disease. The risks of dying from a communicable disease and from a non-communicable disease were both found to fall significantly as the distance to the nearest health centre decreased.

Contraceptive use, birth spacing, and child survival in Matlab, Bangladesh

To reduce infant mortality through improved family planning, a better understanding of the factors driving contraceptive use and how this decision affects infant survival is needed. Using dynamic panel-data models of infant deaths, birth intervals, and contraceptive use, this study analyzes the causal effects of birth spacing on subsequent infant mortality and of infant mortality on the use of contraceptives and the length of the next birth interval. Data are drawn from the Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Matlab, Bangladesh, where almost 32,000 births have been observed from 1982 to 2005. Our main finding is that complete contraceptive use could reduce infant mortality of birth order two and higher by 7.9 percent. The net effect of complete contraceptive use on the total infant mortality rate is small (2.9 percent), however, because the favorable effect on higher order births is partly offset by the rise in the proportion of high-risk first births.

Clustering of neonatal deaths in Bangladesh: results from the Projahnmo studies

BACKGROUND

Neonatal mortality (NM) tends to be clustered within a small subset of mothers, households and/or geographical areas. Knowledge of the maternal and newborn factors associated with NM can help identify high-risk mothers and guide the targeting of intervention programmes.

METHOD

Data from pregnancy history surveys conducted as part of the Project for Advancing the Health of Newborns and Mothers (Projahnmo) in Sylhet and Mirzapur districts of Bangladesh were used to investigate risk factors for NM. We analysed data from babies born between 2001 and 2005 in the control clusters of the Projahnmo trials. Generalised linear mixed models were applied to quantify the heterogeneity among mothers and to investigate factors that contribute to this heterogeneity.

RESULTS

There was an indication of correlation among siblings' outcomes. Neonates whose preceding sibling had died as a neonate in the mothers' lifetime pregnancy history were more likely (up to 1.9 times) to die than those with a living sibling. Factors that varied at the child and mother levels as well as the preceding siblings' outcome explained a large proportion (60% in Sylhet and 70% in Mirzapur) of the between-mother variation in NM.

CONCLUSION

The preceding sibling's outcome may be a surrogate for genetic and other maternal health factors such as nutrition, infection or environmental factors that were not measured within Projahnmo. Further research into these factors is required in order to explain the variation in the risk for NM.