Sibling loss and fertility desires in the high-mortality context of Peru

Intergenerational Clustering of Under-Five Mortality: A Cohort Perspective in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

A burgeoning demographic literature documents the exceedingly high rates at which contemporary cohorts of women across the Global South experience the death of their children-even amid historic declines in child mortality. Yet, the patterning of maternal bereavement remains underinvestigated, as does the extent to which it replicates across generations of the same family. To that end, we ask: Are the surviving daughters of bereaved mothers more likely to eventually experience maternal bereavement? How does the intergenerational clustering of maternal bereavement vary across countries and cohorts? To answer these questions, we make use of Demographic and Health Survey Program data from 50 low- and middle-income countries, encompassing data on 1.05 million women and their mothers spanning three decadal birth cohorts. Descriptive results demonstrate that maternal bereavement is increasingly patterned intergenerationally across cohorts, with most women experiencing the same fate as their mothers. Multivariable hazard models further show that, on average, women whose mothers were maternally bereaved have significantly increased odds of losing a child themselves. In most countries, the association is stable across cohorts; however, in select countries, the risk associated with having a bereaved mother is shrinking among more recent birth cohorts.

Did the 1918 influenza pandemic cause a 1920 baby boom? Demographic evidence from neutral Europe

In 1919-20, the European countries that were neutral in the First World War saw a small baby bust followed by a small baby boom. The sparse literature on this topic attributes the 1919 bust to individuals postponing conceptions during the peak of the 1918-20 influenza pandemic and the 1920 boom to recuperation of those conceptions. Using data from six large neutral countries of Europe, we present novel evidence contradicting that narrative. In fact, the subnational populations and maternal birth cohorts whose fertility was initially hit hardest by the pandemic were still experiencing below-average fertility in 1920. Demographic evidence, economic evidence, and a review of post-pandemic fertility trends outside Europe suggest that the 1920 baby boom in neutral Europe was caused by the end of the First World War, not by the end of the pandemic.

Is the mortality-fertility nexus gendered? A research note on sex differences in the impact of sibling mortality on fertility preferences

Research guided by demographic transition theory has shown that exposure to mortality influences women's fertility preferences and behaviours. Despite the myriad contexts, methodological approaches, and linkages featured in past studies, they have shared a focus on women, leaving questions on the gendered salience of mortality exposures for adults' fertility-related outcomes unanswered. In this research note, we analyse data from three African countries with distinct fertility profiles (Nigeria, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) to examine associations between sibling mortality exposure and ideal family size among women, men, and couples. We also investigate the stability of these associations over time. The associations between adults' sibling mortality exposure and their own and their spouses' ideal family sizes vary across countries. However, the gendered nature of the results in every country and evidence of cross-spousal effects uniformly demonstrate the need to incorporate sex differences into the study of the mortality-fertility link.

Sibling mortality burden in low-income countries: A descriptive analysis of sibling death in Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean

In high-income countries, emerging research suggests sibling bereavement can have significant health and life course consequences for young people. Yet, we know far less about its burden in lower-income countries. Due to higher fertility and mortality in lower-income countries, the level, timing, intensity, and circumstances surrounding sibling mortality are likely to follow patterns distinct from those in higher-income settings. Thus, in this study, we offer a descriptive overview of sibling death in 43 countries across sub-Saharan Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. Specifically, we analyze Demographic and Health Survey data from nationally representative samples of 352,930 15- to 34-year-old women, born between 1985 and 2003, to document experiences of sibling death before age 25. On average, roughly one-third of individuals report a deceased sibling in these countries; estimates reach 40-50% of respondents in multiple African countries, particularly those that have experienced conflict and war. Although some sibling deaths occurred before the focal respondent was born, most bereaved individuals recalled a death during their lifetime-often in late childhood/early adolescence. High proportions of bereaved respondents report multiple sibling deaths, highlighting the clustering of deaths within families. Even so, bereaved individuals tend to come from large families and thus frequently have a comparable number of surviving siblings as people who never experienced a sibling die. Together, the results offer a window into global inequality in childhood experiences, and they attest to the need for research that explores the implications of sibling mortality for young people in world regions where the experience is concentrated.