Demographic perspectives in research on global environmental change

[Mortality trends in Germany in an international context]

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Due to its strong economy and a well-developed healthcare system, Germany is well positioned to achieve above-average reductions in mortality. Nevertheless, in terms of life expectancy, Germany is increasingly falling behind Western Europe. We compare mortality trends in Germany with other Western European countries, covering the period from 1960 to 2019. The focus is on long-term trends in Germany's ranking in international mortality trends. In addition, we conduct a detailed mortality analysis by age.

METHODS

Our analysis is mostly based on mortality data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD). Cause-specific mortality data originate from the database of the World Health Organization (WHO). For the international comparison of mortality trends, we use conventional mortality indicators (age-standardized mortality rate, period life expectancy).

RESULTS

Compared to other Western European countries, Germany has higher mortality in the middle and older age groups. Germany's life expectancy gap compared to Western Europe has grown during the past 20 years. In 2000, Germany was 0.73 years behind for men and 0.74 years behind for women. By 2019, these figures had risen to 1.43 and 1.34 years, respectively. This is mainly due to mortality from non-communicable diseases.

CONCLUSION

For Germany to catch up with other Western European countries, a stronger focus on further reducing mortality at ages 50+ is crucial. This also requires further research to understand the factors behind Germany's disadvantageous position.

The Relationships between Drought Exposure, Fertility Preferences, and Contraceptive Behaviors: A Multicountry Study

The interplay between population dynamics and the environment has long interested demographers. Although studies have explored how climate patterns affect macrolevel population processes, such as mortality and migration, little is known about their impact on individual-level demographic behaviors. This study fills this research gap by examining the linkages between exposure to drought and women's fertility preferences and contraceptive behaviors in sub-Saharan Africa. We analyze data from the Demographic and Health Surveys Program, focusing on 17 countries in East, Southern, and West Africa. We investigate whether women's recent exposure to drought episodes in their community affects their fertility preferences and modern contraceptive use. Generally, the findings show that drought is relevant to understanding women's fertility preferences and behaviors in the vast majority of countries; however, drought exposure has variable impacts. Moreover, whereas in some countries, drought exposure encourages contraceptive behaviors that align with women's preferences, in select countries it is associated with behavior that is misaligned with women's stated preferences. Overall, the study emphasizes the importance of examining climate events as complex forces that have localized meanings for demographic outcomes.

Human fertility after a disaster: a systematic literature review

Fertility is a key demographic parameter influenced by disaster. With the growing risk of disasters, interest in the fertility response to a disaster is increasing among the public, policy makers and researchers alike. However, a systematic literature review on how disaster affects live birth counts does not yet exist. We reviewed 50 studies retrieved from a systematic search based on a pre-registered protocol. We found an overall negative impact of disasters on fertility. If any, increases in fertility were mostly linked with weather-related physical disasters. We also identified 13 distinct mechanisms which researchers have considered as underlying the fertility effects of disaster. By contrast to the common belief that disasters are more likely to increase fertility in contexts with already high fertility, we found little evidence to suggest that the total fertility rate of the studied populations was an important predictor of the direction, timing or size of fertility impacts. While this may be because no relationship exists, it may also be due to biases we observed in the literature towards studying high-income countries or high-cost disasters. We summarize the methodological limitations identified from the reviewed studies into six practical recommendations for future research. Our findings inform both the theories behind the fertility effects of disasters and the methods for studying them.

The evolution process of ecological vulnerability and its quantitative analysis of influencing factors: a case study of Longdong area

Ecological vulnerability is the main index to evaluate areal environmental stability and monitor the development of ecological environment. Longdong area is a typical Loess Plateau area with complex terrain, serious soil erosion, mineral resource development, and other human activities leading to the ecological vulnerability evolution of the area, but the monitoring of its ecological status and the determination of its factors are still lacking. Based on the ecological characteristics of Longdong area, this study constructed an ecological vulnerability system including natural, social, and economic data and used the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) to study the temporal and spatial evolution of ecological vulnerability from 2006 to 2018. A model for quantitative analysis of the evolution of ecological vulnerability and correlation of influencing factors was ultimately developed. The results showed that (1) from 2006 to 2018, the ecological vulnerability index (EVI) had a minimum value of 0.232 and a maximum value of 0.695. EVI was high in the northeast and southwest of Longdong area and low in the central region. (2) At the same time, the areas of potential vulnerability and mild vulnerability increased, and the areas of slight vulnerability, moderate vulnerability, and severe vulnerability decreased. (3) The correlation coefficient between average annual temperature and EVI exceeded 0.5 in four years, and the correlation coefficient between population density and per capita arable land area and EVI exceeded 0.5 in two years showed significant correlation. The results reflect the spatial pattern and influencing factors of ecological vulnerability in typical arid areas of northern China. Additionally, it served as a resource for researching the interrelationships of the variables affecting ecological vulnerability.