A non-invasive fibrosis score predicts treatment outcome in chronic hepatitis C virus infection

The age, bilirubin and albumin (ABA) index: a novel noninvasive index for predicting liver fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C infection

AIM

It was to assess the diagnostic performance characteristics of a novel index, (ABA), which utilizes age, bilirubin and albumin to predict significant and severe fibrosis, and cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C infection.

METHODS

A total of 114 patients were included in this study. The liver biopsies were graded using the Ishak scoring system. Diagnostic performance of the ABA index was compared to aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to alanine aminotransferase ratio, age platelet index, AST to platelet ratio index, γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) to platelet ratio index, FIB-4, FibroQ, Goteborg University Cirrhosis Index, King's score, GGT/international normalization ratio, platelet to lymphocyte ratio, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, white blood cell to platelet distribution width ratio and mean platelet volume to platelet distribution width ratio (MPV/PDW) by receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS

The ABA index was formulated as 1.5 + (0.065 × age) + (1.85 × bilirubin) - (1.65 × albumin) according to the multivariate logistic regression analysis. According to the ROC curve analyses, the ABA index had the area under these ROC curves (AUROCs) of 0.805 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.727-0.883] for significant fibrosis, 0.874 (95% CI, 0.804-0.943) for severe fibrosis and 0.895 (95% CI, 0.828-0.961) for cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

The ABA index was found to be superior to other evaluated noninvasive indexes of liver fibrosis by use of the cutoff point of 0 and 1. These findings should be confirmed by prospective and multicenter studies in patients with chronic hepatitis C infection.

Serum biomarkers as an alternative to vibration controlled transient elastography in liver fibrosis staging in chronic hepatitis C

Background

Assessment of liver disease severity in chronic Hepatitis C (CHC) is essential both in pretreatment and posttreatment period. We assessed the impact of direct-acting antiviral therapy on liver stiffness regression measured by Vibration Controlled Transient Elastography (VCTE) in patients with CHC and evaluated the diagnostic performance of the APRI and FIB-4 scores compared to VCTE in detecting advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis (F3/F4).

Methodology

Retrospective analysis of consecutive patients with CHC who underwent VCTE before and after DAA therapy was done. APRI and FIB-4 scores were compared to VCTE.

Results

88 (56.78%) patients-12 (F3) and 76 (F4) according to VCTE, had advanced fibrosis pretreatment, which reduced to 69 (44.52%) - 10 (F3) and 59 (F4) after 12 weeks DAA therapy. Significant reduction in VCTE value from 14.08 ± 9.05 KPa to 11.84 ± 8.31 KPa (p=0.002) was noted. There is significant reduction in APRI, FIB-4 and GUCI score posttreatment which was not the case with Lok score and Bonacini score. Before therapy, FIB-4 outperformed others to predict advanced fibrosis with score >2.13 (AUC 0.93), having sensitivity 76%, specificity 96% and accuracy 86%. However posttreatment, APRI and GUCI score performed best to predict F3/F4 fibrosis with score >0.63 (AUC 0.97) and >0.64 (AUC 0.96), having sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of 85%, 96.6% and 92% ; 85%, 6.6% and 92% respectively.

Conclusion

Before therapy, FIB-4 had the best accuracy in predicting advanced fibrosis whereas APRI and GUCI score were the best indices post-treatment.

Fibro-indices versus liver stiffness for prediction of significant fibrosis in hepatitis B virus-infected Egyptian patients; a single-center experience

Background: Liver fibrosis assessment is a key factor for disease management in hepatitis B virus (HBV). Several serum biomarkers have been introduced for noninvasive fibrosis assessment. This study aims to evaluate the validity of simple noninvasive indices, namely Fibrosis-4 score (FIB4), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to Platelet Ratio Index (APRI), Goteborg University Cirrhosis Index (GUCI), and fibrosis index in evaluation of liver fibrosis in chronic HBV.Methods: 226 patients with chronic HBV genotype D were included. FIB4, APRI, GUCI, and fibrosis index were performed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to predict ≥F2 fibrosis.Results: The mean age of patients was 39.00 years and 72.27% of patients were treatment naïve. Patients with ≥F2 hepatic fibrosis had significantly higher FIB-4 (1.58 ± 1.46 vs. 1.15 ± 1.09), APRI (0.68 ± 0.71 vs. 0.43 ± 0.37), GUCI score (0.75 ± 0.94 vs. 0.42 ± 0.29) and Fibrosis index (2.18 ± 0.84 vs. 1.84 ± 0.69). All studied indices were able to diagnose ≥F2 fibrosis. APRI had the highest area under the ROC (AUROC) of 0.67. Predictivity of all indices was higher in on-treatment vs naive patients.Conclusion: FIB4, APRI, and GUCI scores are acceptable, noninvasive, and cheap simple indices that can be helpful on treatment follow-up of fibrosis regression in the setting of low socioeconomic conditions compared to the relatively expensive fibroscan modality.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) related liver fibrosis in people who inject drugs (PWID) at the Stockholm Needle Exchange - evaluated with liver elasticity

Background and aims: Sharing of unsterile injection equipment among people who inject drugs (PWID) is the major transmission-route for hepatitis C (HCV). HCV is highly prevalent in PWID in the Stockholm needle exchange programme (NEP). The frequency of advanced liver fibrosis among the participants is, however, unknown. Methods: From December 2016 to April 2018, all participants with chronic hepatitis C infection (CHC) were offered liver fibrosis evaluation at the Stockholm NEP, including liver stiffness measurement (LSM), a medical history and expanded blood tests to evaluate APRI and FIB-4 scores. Results: A total of 2037 individuals were enrolled of whom 964 (47.3%) had CHC. LSM was performed in 203 (21.1%) of eligible participants of whom 85% had mild fibrosis (LSM ≤9.4 kPa) and 15% advanced fibrosis (LSM ≥9.5 kPa). APRI >1 and FIB-4 > 3.25 only identified 30% of participants with advanced fibrosis. However, all 31(100%) participants with advanced fibrosis were detected when APRI >1 was combined with an age of ≥40 years and an injection drug use (IDU) duration of ≥15 years. Conclusions: We found that the diagnostic work-up for advanced fibrosis can be simplified with this combination of easily available factors. This allows identification of PWID in need of immediate HCV treatment to prevent further disease progression. Furthermore, LSM can be avoided among PWID with mild fibrosis, identified by age <40 years combined with IDU duration of <15 years and APRI score <1. This strategy enhances the HCV care cascade where LSM is not easily available, and will thus facilitate HCV treatment initiation.

Prevalence and outcome of post-transfusion hepatitis C acquired at different ages and detected in look-back screening

OBJECTIVES

The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Sweden is estimated to 0.5%. Before 1992, blood transfusion posed a risk of HCV transmission. The primary aim of this study was to estimate anti-HCV prevalence in Stockholm County among individuals receiving blood transfusions 1965-1991. The secondary aim was to study the effect of age at transfusion on the development of liver disease and treatment outcome.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This is a retrospective analysis of individuals found to be anti-HCV tested positive in Stockholm County during a national screening campaign in Sweden 2008-2010. All anti-HCV-positive individuals were also HCV RNA tested. Data on age at transfusion, age at diagnosis, HCV genotype, viral load, fibrosis score, liver histology and antiviral treatment were recorded.

RESULTS

Out of 7473, 134 (1.8%) tested individuals were anti-HCV positive and 102 were HCV RNA positive resulting in a prevalence of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) of 1.4%. The rate of advanced liver damage was 18% (10/56). Patients younger than 19 years of age at transfusion were significantly more often started on antiviral treatment compared to adult patients, 65% vs 29% p < .001. No significant correlation was found between treatment outcome and gender or age at transfusion.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found an anti-HCV prevalence of 1.8% which is considerably higher than the estimated prevalence in the Swedish general population (0.5%), and patients infected during childhood were more likely to receive antiviral treatment. Additional data on the HCV epidemic in Sweden are needed regarding prevalence and age distribution.

Current noninvasive liver reserve models do not predict histological fibrosis severity in hepatocellular carcinoma

The Ishak scoring system has been used to stage liver fibrosis. Ten noninvasive liver reserve models were proposed to assess the severity of liver fibrosis, but their performance in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is unknown. We aimed to evaluate the correlation between these models and severity of fibrosis in patients with HCC. A total 464 patients with HCC undergoing surgical resection were retrospectively analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to determine independent factors associated with advanced fibrosis (Ishak score 4 or higher). There were no significant correlations between all noninvasive models and severity of fibrosis in HCC (p for trend all >0.1). In subgroup analysis, cirrhosis discriminant index (CDS) and Lok’s index in hepatitis B-, and fibrosis index based on 4 factors (FIB-4), CDS and Lok’s index in hepatitis C-associated HCC, best correlated with the severity of liver fibrosis. Low platelet count, prolonged prothrombin time, hepatitis C and multiple tumors were independently associated with advanced fibrosis. Among the 10 models, CDS was the best model to predict cirrhosis. Currently used noninvasive liver reserve models do not well correlate with severity of histological fibrosis in HCC. New noninvasive models are required to improve the predictive accuracy of liver fibrosis in HCC.

Comparison of twelve liver functional reserve models for outcome prediction in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing surgical resection

Various noninvasive liver functional reserve models have been proposed, but their prognostic ability in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is unclear. We aimed to investigate the performance of twelve noninvasive liver reserve models in HCC patients undergoing surgical resection. A total of 645 patients undergoing resection were prospectively identified and retrospectively analyzed. Tumor recurrence, overall survival, and independent prognostic factors were evaluated by the Cox proportional hazards model. Of the twelve models, the King’s score showed the highest homogeneity and lowest corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc) value, suggesting a better predictive ability for tumor recurrence. In multivariate Cox analysis, we confirmed that King’s score, tumor size and serum alpha-fetoprotein level were independent predictors associated with recurrence. In survival prediction, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) revealed the highest homogeneity and lowest value among twelve invasive models, indicating a better prognostic performance. In the Cox model, ALBI grade, tumor burden, alpha-fetoprotein, vascular invasion, diabetes mellitus and performance status were independent predictors linked with overall survival. In summary, the currently used liver function models have differential predictive ability for HCC patients undergoing surgical resection. The King’s score is a feasible tool to predict tumor recurrence, whereas ALBI grade is a more robust model for prognostic prediction.

Comparing the efficiency of Fib-4, Egy-score, APRI, and GUCI in liver fibrosis staging in Egyptians with chronic hepatitis C

Assessment of hepatic fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C virus patients by liver biopsy is not widely accepted despite its accuracy, being invasive, carrying complications, and adding cost. This paved the way to development and use of non-invasive markers of fibrosis in diagnosis of hepatic fibrosis. We aimed at evaluating the efficiency of Fib-4, Egy-score, Aspartate-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and Göteborg University Cirrhosis Index (GUCI) in comparison to liver biopsy, in the assessment of hepatic fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C patients. This was a cross sectional study including 200 chronic HCV patients were divided into two groups according to stage of fibrosis (Metavir score) into non-significant fibrosis (<F2) and significant fibrosis (≥F2). Reference needle liver biopsy was compared to Fib-4, Egyscore, APRI, and GUCI. Older age (P < 0.001) and higher BMI (P = 0.005) were significantly related to significant fibrosis and positively correlated with fibrosis progression (r = 0.361, P = 0.000, and r = 0.165, P = 0.019 respectively). Fib-4 >1.27, APRI >0.48, Egy-score >0.73, and GUCI >0.57 significantly predict significant fibrosis (P < 0.01). Fib-4 carries the best performance and significant reliability with AUROC 0.783, sensitivity 74%, specificity 69%, PPV 0.55, and NPV 0.86. The addition of BMI to Fib-4 improved the significant fibrosis AUROC curve performance but did not reach statistical significant improvement. We concluded that age and BMI are good predictors of hepatic fibrosis. Fib-4 (>1.27) is the best method of prediction of significant fibrosis compared to Egy-score, APRI, and GUCI. Addition of BMI to Fib-4 did not improve diagnostic value of Fib-4.

Treatment of hepatitis C virus infection for adults and children: updated Swedish consensus guidelines 2017

AIM

Following the approval of two new therapeutic combinations within the European Union in 2017, the former Swedish recommendations for the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection from 2016 were deemed in need of updating.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

An expert meeting to this end was held in Stockholm, Sweden in October 2017.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

An interferon-free combination of direct-acting antiviral agents is now recommended for all patients with chronic HCV infection, regardless of liver fibrosis stage, in order to limit morbidity and spread of the disease. An extended discussion of treatment for people who inject drugs in order to diminish transmission is included.

Prognostic Performance of Ten Liver Function Models in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Radiofrequency Ablation

Liver functional capacity is a crucial survival determinant for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Noninvasive models were proposed to assess hepatic reserve, but their performance in outcome prediction is unclear. We aimed to investigate 10 currently used liver function models in HCC patients undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA). A total 499 HCC patients were prospectively identified. Homogeneity and corrected Akaike information criteria (AICc) were compared. Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify independent survival predictors. Significance survival differences were found across 10 noninvasive models (all p < 0.001) except for GUCI and APRI grade 2 vs 3, and King’s score grade 1 vs 2. Among these models, ALBI grade showed the highest homogeneity and lowest AICs value, indicating a better prognostic performance. Within Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score 5 group, significant survival difference was demonstrated between ALBI grade 1 and 2 (p < 0.001); for those with CTP score 6 or higher, only ALBI grade 2 and 3 showed survival difference (p < 0.001). Cox analysis disclosed that ALBI grade, tumor size and performance status were independent prognostic predictors. There was significant correlation between CTP score and other 9 models. We conclude that ALBI grade may serve as objective and feasible surrogate for prognostic prediction in HCC patients undergoing RFA.

Utility of Electronic Medical record-based Fibrosis Scores in Predicting Advanced Cirrhosis in Patients with Hepatitic C Virus Infection

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether advanced cirrhosis - defined by the detection of nodular liver contours or portal venous collaterals on imaging studies - could be predicted by fibrosis algorithms, calculated using laboratory and demographic features extracted from patients' electronic medical records. To this end, we compared seven EMR-based fibrosis scores with liver imaging studies in a cohort of HCV patients.

METHODS

A search of our health system's patient data warehouse identified 867 patients with chronic HCV infection. A total of 565 patients had undergone at least one liver imaging study and had no confounding medical condition affecting the imaging features or fibrosis scores. Demographic and laboratory data were used to calculate APRI, Fib4, Fibrosis Index, Forns, GUCI, Lok Index and Vira-HepC scores for all viremic patients who had undergone liver imaging. Data points selected for the calculation of these scores were based on laboratory results obtained within the shortest possible time from the imaging study. Areas under the receiver operating curves (AUROC), optimum cut-offs, sensitivities, specificities and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for each score.

RESULTS

Seven algorithms were performed similarly in predicting cirrhosis. Sensitivities ranged from 0.65 to 1.00, specificities from 0.67 to 0.90, positive predictive values from 0.33 to 0.38, and negative predictive values from 0.93 to 1.00. No individual test was superior, as the confidence intervals of all AUROCs overlapped.

CONCLUSIONS

EMR-based scoring systems performed relatively well in ruling out advanced, radiologically-defined cirrhosis. However, their moderate sensitivity and positive predictive values limit their reliability for EMR-based diagnosis.

Identification and Fibrosis Staging of Hepatitis C Patients Using the Electronic Medical Record System

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The aim of this study was to noninvasively assess the severity of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) in large patient populations. It would be helpful if fibrosis scores could be calculated solely on the basis of data contained in the patients' electronic medical records (EMR). We performed a pilot study to identify all HCV-infected patients in a large health care system, and predict their fibrosis stage on the basis of demographic and laboratory data using common data from their EMR.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

HCV-infected patients were identified using the EMR. The liver biopsies of 191 HCV patients were graded using the Ishak and Metavir scoring systems. Demographic and laboratory data were extracted from the EMR and used to calculate the aminotransferase to platelet ratio index, Fib-4, Fibrosis Index, Forns, Göteborg University Cirrhosis Index, Lok Index, and Vira-HepC.

RESULTS

In total, 869 HCV-infected patients were identified from a population of over 1 million. In the subgroup of patients with liver biopsies, all 7 algorithms were significantly correlated with the fibrosis stage. The degree of correlation was moderate, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.22 to 0.60. For the detection of advanced fibrosis (Metavir 3 or 4), the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.71 to 0.84, with no significant differences between the individual scores. Sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative predictive values were within the previously reported range. All scores tended to perform better for higher fibrosis stages.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrates that HCV-infected patients can be identified and their fibrosis staged using commonly available EMR-based algorithms.

Mean Platelet Volume, Red Cell Distribution Width to Platelet Count Ratio, Globulin Platelet Index, and 16 Other Indirect Noninvasive Fibrosis Scores: How Much Do Routine Blood Tests Tell About Liver Fibrosis in Chronic Hepatitis C?

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Many indirect noninvasive scores to predict liver fibrosis are calculated from routine blood investigations. Only limited studies have compared their efficacy head to head. We aimed to compare these scores with liver biopsy fibrosis stages in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From blood investigations of 1602 patients with chronic hepatitis C who underwent a liver biopsy before initiation of antiviral treatment, 19 simple noninvasive scores were calculated. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves and diagnostic accuracy of each of these scores were calculated (with reference to the Scheuer staging) and compared.

RESULTS

The mean age of the patients was 41.8±9.6 years (1365 men). The most common genotype was genotype 4 (65.6%). Significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis were seen in 65.1%, 25.6, and 6.6% of patients, respectively. All the scores except the aspartate transaminase (AST) alanine transaminase ratio, Pohl score, mean platelet volume, fibro-alpha, and red cell distribution width to platelet count ratio index showed high predictive accuracy for the stages of fibrosis. King's score (cutoff, 17.5) showed the highest predictive accuracy for significant and advanced fibrosis. King's score, Göteborg university cirrhosis index, APRI (the AST/platelet count ratio index), and Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) had the highest predictive accuracy for cirrhosis, with the APRI (cutoff, 2) and FIB-4 (cutoff, 3.25) showing the highest diagnostic accuracy.We derived the study score 8.5 - 0.2(albumin, g/dL) +0.01(AST, IU/L) -0.02(platelet count, 10(9)/L), which at a cutoff of >4.7 had a predictive accuracy of 0.868 (95% confidence interval, 0.833-0.904) for cirrhosis.

CONCLUSIONS

King's score for significant and advanced fibrosis and the APRI or FIB-4 score for cirrhosis could be the best simple indirect noninvasive scores.

Cost-effectiveness of non-invasive methods for assessment and monitoring of liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic liver disease: systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Liver biopsy is the reference standard for diagnosing the extent of fibrosis in chronic liver disease; however, it is invasive, with the potential for serious complications. Alternatives to biopsy include non-invasive liver tests (NILTs); however, the cost-effectiveness of these needs to be established.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the diagnostic accuracy and cost-effectiveness of NILTs in patients with chronic liver disease.

DATA SOURCES

We searched various databases from 1998 to April 2012, recent conference proceedings and reference lists.

METHODS

We included studies that assessed the diagnostic accuracy of NILTs using liver biopsy as the reference standard. Diagnostic studies were assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool. Meta-analysis was conducted using the bivariate random-effects model with correlation between sensitivity and specificity (whenever possible). Decision models were used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the NILTs. Expected costs were estimated using a NHS perspective and health outcomes were measured as quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Markov models were developed to estimate long-term costs and QALYs following testing, and antiviral treatment where indicated, for chronic hepatitis B (HBV) and chronic hepatitis C (HCV). NILTs were compared with each other, sequential testing strategies, biopsy and strategies including no testing. For alcoholic liver disease (ALD), we assessed the cost-effectiveness of NILTs in the context of potentially increasing abstinence from alcohol. Owing to a lack of data and treatments specifically for fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), the analysis was limited to an incremental cost per correct diagnosis. An analysis of NILTs to identify patients with cirrhosis for increased monitoring was also conducted.

RESULTS

Given a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per QALY, treating everyone with HCV without prior testing was cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £9204. This was robust in most sensitivity analyses but sensitive to the extent of treatment benefit for patients with mild fibrosis. For HBV [hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative)] this strategy had an ICER of £28,137, which was cost-effective only if the upper bound of the standard UK cost-effectiveness threshold range (£30,000) is acceptable. For HBeAg-positive disease, two NILTs applied sequentially (hyaluronic acid and magnetic resonance elastography) were cost-effective at a £20,000 threshold (ICER: £19,612); however, the results were highly uncertain, with several test strategies having similar expected outcomes and costs. For patients with ALD, liver biopsy was the cost-effective strategy, with an ICER of £822.

LIMITATIONS

A substantial number of tests had only one study from which diagnostic accuracy was derived; therefore, there is a high risk of bias. Most NILTs did not have validated cut-offs for diagnosis of specific fibrosis stages. The findings of the ALD model were dependent on assuptions about abstinence rates assumptions and the modelling approach for NAFLD was hindered by the lack of evidence on clinically effective treatments.

CONCLUSIONS

Treating everyone without NILTs is cost-effective for patients with HCV, but only for HBeAg-negative if the higher cost-effectiveness threshold is appropriate. For HBeAg-positive, two NILTs applied sequentially were cost-effective but highly uncertain. Further evidence for treatment effectiveness is required for ALD and NAFLD.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42011001561.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Long-term follow-up of successful hepatitis C virus therapy: waning immune responses and disappearance of liver disease are consistent with cure

BACKGROUND

A sustained viral response (SVR) after interferon-based therapy of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is regarded to represent a cure. Previous studies have used different markers to clarify whether an SVR truly represents a cure, but no study has combined a clinical work-up with highly sensitive HCV RNA detection, and the determination of immune responses.

AIM

To determine clinical, histological, virological and immunological markers 5-20 years after SVR.

METHODS

In 54 patients, liver biochemistry, histology and elastography were evaluated. Liver biopsies, plasma and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were tested for minute amounts of HCV RNA. HCV-specific T-cell responses were monitored by ELISpot and pentamer staining, and humoral responses by measuring HCV nonstructural (NS)3-specific antibodies and virus neutralisation.

RESULTS

Liver disease regressed significantly in all patients, and 51 were HCV RNA-negative in all tissues tested. There was an inverse association between liver disease, HCV-specific T-cell responses and HCV antibody levels with time from SVR, supporting that the virus had been cleared. The three patients, who all lacked signs of liver disease, had HCV RNA in PBMCs 5-9 years after SVR. All three had HCV-specific T cells and NS3 antibodies, but no cross-neutralising antibodies.

CONCLUSIONS

Our combined data confirm that a SVR corresponds to a long-term clinical cure. The waning immune responses support the disappearance of the antigenic stimulus. Transient HCV RNA traces may be detected in some patients up to 9 years after SVR, but no marker associates this with an increased risk for liver disease.

Impact of contacting study authors to obtain additional data for systematic reviews: diagnostic accuracy studies for hepatic fibrosis

BACKGROUND

Seventeen of 172 included studies in a recent systematic review of blood tests for hepatic fibrosis or cirrhosis reported diagnostic accuracy results discordant from 2 × 2 tables, and 60 studies reported inadequate data to construct 2 × 2 tables. This study explores the yield of contacting authors of diagnostic accuracy studies and impact on the systematic review findings.

METHODS

Sixty-six corresponding authors were sent letters requesting additional information or clarification of data from 77 studies. Data received from the authors were synthesized with data included in the previous review, and diagnostic accuracy sensitivities, specificities, and positive and likelihood ratios were recalculated.

RESULTS

Of the 66 authors, 68% were successfully contacted and 42% provided additional data for 29 out of 77 studies (38%). All authors who provided data at all did so by the third emailed request (ten authors provided data after one request). Authors of more recent studies were more likely to be located and provide data compared to authors of older studies. The effects of requests for additional data on the conclusions regarding the utility of blood tests to identify patients with clinically significant fibrosis or cirrhosis were generally small for ten out of 12 tests. Additional data resulted in reclassification (using median likelihood ratio estimates) from less useful to moderately useful or vice versa for the remaining two blood tests and enabled the calculation of an estimate for a third blood test for which previously the data had been insufficient to do so. We did not identify a clear pattern for the directional impact of additional data on estimates of diagnostic accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

We successfully contacted and received results from 42% of authors who provided data for 38% of included studies. Contacting authors of studies evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of serum biomarkers for hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis in hepatitis C patients impacted conclusions regarding diagnostic utility for two blood tests and enabled the calculation of an estimate for a third blood test. Despite relatively extensive efforts, we were unable to obtain data to resolve discrepancies or complete 2 × 2 tables for 62% of studies.

Angiopoietin-2 Serum Levels Improve Noninvasive Fibrosis Staging in Chronic Hepatitis C: A Fibrogenic-Angiogenic Link

AIMS

Accurate liver fibrosis staging is crucial for the management of chronic hepatitis C (CHC). The invasiveness and cost burden of liver biopsy have driven the search for new noninvasive biomarkers of fibrosis. Based on the link between serum angiopoietin-1 and 2 levels and CHC progression, we aimed to determine the value of these angiogenic factors as noninvasive biomarkers of liver fibrosis.

METHODS

Serum levels of angiopoietin-1 and -2 were measured by ELISA in 108 CHC patients who underwent pretreatment liver biopsy. The correlation between angiopoietins and clinical and demographic variables with liver fibrosis was analyzed by univariate regression. Significant factors were then subjected to multivariate analysis, from which we constructed a novel noninvasive liver fibrosis index (AngioScore), whose performance was validated in an independent series of 71 CHC patients. The accuracy of this model was compared with other documented fibrosis algorithms by De Long test.

RESULTS

Angiopoietins correlated significantly with hepatic fibrosis; however, only angiopoietin-2 was retained in the final model, which also included age, platelets, AST, INR, and GGT. The model was validated and behaved considerably better than other fibrosis indices in discriminating all, significant, moderate and severe liver fibrosis (0.886, 0.920, 0.923). Using clinically relevant cutoffs, we classified CHC patients by discarding significant fibrosis and diagnosing moderate and severe fibrosis with greater accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.

CONCLUSIONS

Our novel noninvasive liver fibrosis model, based on serum angiopoietin-2 levels, outperforms other indices and should help substantially in managing CHC and monitoring long-term follow-up prognosis.

HCV RNA decline in chronic HCV genotype 2 and 3 during standard of care treatment according to IL28B polymorphism

The IL28 gene is highly associated with sustained viral response (SVR) in patients infected with genotype 1 after standard of care (SOC) treatment with peg-IFN and ribavirin. It is also associated with a steeper first phase HCV RNA decline during treatment. In genotype 2 and 3 infections, these correlations are less obvious. We studied the IL28B association to rapid viral response (RVR), SVR, first and second phase HCV RNA decline during treatment in 100 HCV mono-infected and 13 HCV/HIV co-infected patients. We found a significantly higher mean baseline HCV RNA level in IL28B SNP CC than non-CC mono-infected patients, 6.99 vs 6.30 log(10) IU/mL (P = 0.02), and a significantly larger median 1st phase decline in patients with CC than non-CC genotype, 2.03 vs 1.37 log(10) IU/mL, respectively. The overall SVR rate in HCV mono-infected patients was 87% vs 77% in HCV/HIV co-infected patients, with no correlation to IL28B SNP. In mono-infected patients with RVR, the SVR rate was high and independent of IL28B genotype. In mono-infected patients who failed to achieve RVR who had IL28B CC and non-CC genotype, 64% and 67% achieved SVR, respectively. In genotype 2 and 3 infected patients, the 1st phase HCV RNA decline was steeper in patients with IL28B CC vs non-CC genotype during SOC treatment. This did not translate into a higher frequency of RVR or SVR. Hence, the clinical relevance of pretreatment analysis of IL28B polymorphisms in genotype 2 and 3 infected patients can be questioned in patients with expected high SVR rate.

Previously unrecognized advanced liver disease unveiled by transient elastography in patients with Haemophilia and chronic hepatitis C

Before the introduction of viral inactivation procedures and viral screening of plasma-products, haemophiliacs were at high risk of infection with HCV. Those who acquired HCV infection in the 1980s, and are still alive today, may have developed significant liver fibrosis or cirrhosis. However, liver biopsy has not routinely been utilized in the evaluation of haemophiliacs with HCV in Denmark. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of significant fibrosis/cirrhosis among haemophiliacs as evaluated by transient elastography (TE). Cross-sectional investigation of adult patients with haemophilia A or B. TE with liver stiffness measurements (LSM) ≥ 8 kPa were repeated after 4-6 weeks. Significant fibrosis and cirrhosis was defined as measurements ≥ 8 kPa or ≥ 12 kPa respectively. Among 307 patients with haemophilia A or B registered at the two Haemophilia centres, 141(46%) participate in this study. Forty (28.4%) had chronic hepatitis C, 33 (23.4%) past hepatitis C and 68 (48.2%) had never been infected, at screening LSM ≥ 8 kPa were found in 45.7%, 24.7% and 4.6% respectively. Among patients with chronic hepatitis C significant fibrosis was confirmed in 17.1% and cirrhosis in 2.9% by repeated LSM ≥ 8 and ≥ 12 kPa respectively. The median TE-value in never HCV-infected haemophiliacs was comparable with what has been found in healthy non-haemophiliacs. In Danish haemophiliacs where liver biopsy has not routinely been used for assessing severity of liver fibrosis, LSM identified advanced liver disease in one-fifth of cases that had not been recognized during clinical follow-up.

Non-invasive evaluation of the fibrosis stage in chronic hepatitis C: a comparative analysis of nine scoring methods

OBJECTIVE

Liver biopsy is an invasive procedure and new surrogate markers to assess fibrosis are needed. We performed a comparative external evaluation of nine non-invasive scores of liver fibrosis and tried to identify other potential biochemical markers of low-stage liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C (CHC).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We included 429 previously untreated consecutive patients from a single centre who underwent a liver biopsy between January 1999 and April 2009. Biopsies were evaluated for the stage of fibrosis according to the METAVIR scoring method.

RESULTS

None of the evaluated scores were adequate to disclose null-low fibrosis due to a lack of specificity at the proposed cut-offs and the poor sensitivity of lower cut-offs. Serum ferritin and cholesterol values were found to be independently related to the fibrosis stage and their inclusion in the best performing scores at lower cut-off values (the APRI and King's scores) improved the sensitivity for null-low fibrosis by 8% with a specificity >or= 93%.

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately 30% of patients with null-low fibrosis may be accurately identified by supplementing current scores with new independent variables (serum ferritin and cholesterol), thus obviating the need for a liver biopsy.