Value of the model for end-stage liver disease for predicting survival in hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with transarterial chemoembolization

Predictors of Mortality in Patients with Advanced Cancer-A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

To timely initiate advance care planning in patients with advanced cancer, physicians should identify patients with limited life expectancy. We aimed to identify predictors of mortality. To identify the relevant literature, we searched Embase, MEDLINE, Cochrane Central, Web of Science, and PubMed databases between January 2000-April 2020. Identified studies were assessed on risk-of-bias with a modified QUIPS tool. The main outcomes were predictors and prediction models of mortality within a period of 3-24 months. We included predictors that were studied in ≥2 cancer types in a meta-analysis using a fixed or random-effects model and summarized the discriminative ability of models. We included 68 studies (ranging from 42 to 66,112 patients), of which 24 were low risk-of-bias, and 39 were included in the meta-analysis. Using a fixed-effects model, the predictors of mortality were: the surprise question, performance status, cognitive impairment, (sub)cutaneous metastases, body mass index, comorbidity, serum albumin, and hemoglobin. Using a random-effects model, predictors were: disease stage IV (hazard ratio [HR] 7.58; 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.00-14.36), lung cancer (HR 2.51; 95% CI 1.24-5.06), ECOG performance status 1+ (HR 2.03; 95% CI 1.44-2.86) and 2+ (HR 4.06; 95% CI 2.36-6.98), age (HR 1.20; 95% CI 1.05-1.38), male sex (HR 1.24; 95% CI 1.14-1.36), and Charlson comorbidity score 3+ (HR 1.60; 95% CI 1.11-2.32). Thirteen studies reported on prediction models consisting of different sets of predictors with mostly moderate discriminative ability. To conclude, we identified reasonably accurate non-tumor specific predictors of mortality. Those predictors could guide in developing a more accurate prediction model and in selecting patients for advance care planning.

Antiviral Therapy Improves Hepatocellular Cancer Survival

Background

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a common risk factor for hepatocellular cancer (HCC). Patients with HCV infection are at a higher risk of developing HCC because the virus induces fibrosis in the liver, which may lead to cirrhosis. Early treatment of HCV and achieving a sustained virologic response (SVR) may lead to decreased incidence and mortality associated with HCC.

Methods

We performed a retrospective review of patients at the Memphis Veterans Affairs Medical Center (VAMC) in Tennessee from November 2008 to March 2019 to determine whether treatment of HCV infection makes a difference in overall survival (OS) among patients who develop HCC. Patients were treated with an interferon-based regimen or direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs). Among the patients with HCV infection who were treated, we identified those who did achieve or did not achieve SVR.

Results

We identified 111 patients with HCV and HCC; 68 were treated for HCV infection. Forty-eight patients received DAA and 20 patients received an interferon-based regimen and 51 achieved SVR. In a multivariate analysis accounting for severity of liver disease, treated patients had an improved 5-year OS rate, median 1338 days (95% CI, 966-3202) when compared with untreated patients whose median OS was 452 days (95% CI, 242-853) (P = .0005). The treatment group had a longer median progression-free survival (PFS) than did the nontreatment group (460 days [95% CI, 294-726] vs 286 days [95% CI, 205-405], P = .04). Patients with SVR had an increased 5-year OS compared with patients without SVR (median 1973 days [95% CI, 1222-NA] vs 470 days [95% CI, 242-853], P < .001). HCV treatment type (interferon vs DAA) was not found to be associated with either OS or PFS, regardless of time period. Advanced liver disease stage as characterized by a high model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (> 10) or high Child-Pugh score (B or C) was associated with worse survival outcome.

Conclusions

A retrospective analysis of patients with HCV infection and HCC confirms that treatment of HCV infection leads to OS benefit among patients with HCC. We further demonstrate that patients with HCV infection who achieve SVR have an OS benefit over patients unable to achieve SVR. The type of treatment, DAA vs an interferon-based regimen, did not show a significant survival benefit.

CT-Based Hepatic Residual Volume and Predictors of Outcomes of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Unsuitable for Surgical Therapy Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

To assess the association between baseline CT-based volumetric parameters and biochemical hepatic evaluations, such as, Child-Pugh, MELD score, and modified MELD-Na score, on the prediction of outcomes of patients with HCC undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective of a prospectively maintained database, single arm, and single center study was performed including 41 patients with diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma treated with TACE. Study endpoints included liver dysfunction (new events of ascites, encephalopathy, and/or death) and overall survival rate. Multi-phase CT-based volumetric analysis was performed to calculate total liver volume and tumor volume using portal and late arterial phases, respectively. Residual volume was calculated subtracting the tumor volume minus the total liver volume. Child-Pugh, MELD score, and MELD-Na score were measured during the baseline evaluation.

RESULTS

At a median follow-up time of 8 months (IQR, 5-14), 16 patients (39%) were diagnosed with hepatic dysfunction. In patients with hepatic dysfunction, the median residual hepatic volume was 1002.1 cc (IQR, 633-1077.1 cc) compared to patients with normal liver function post-TACE with a median residual volume of 1233 cc (IQR, 1018.7-1437.6 cc) (p = 0.02). Survival analysis demonstrated an overall survival rate of 95%, 90%, 85% at 30 days, 12 months, and 24 months, respectively. The overall survival rate in patients with Child-Pugh A was 100%, 97%, and 97% at 6, 12, and 24 months, respectively; compared to patients with Child Pugh B with an overall survival of rate of 86%, 78%, and 78% at 6, 12, and 24 months, respectively (p = 0.07). Median baseline MELD-Na score was higher in patients that died during the study period compared to patients that survived (6.7 [IQR, 5-14.2] versus 4.1 [IQR, 2.14-6.85]) (p = 0.09).

CONCLUSION

Low baseline CT-based residual volume is associated with the occurrence of hepatic dysfunction at a median time of 8 months. Baseline Child-Pugh A patients were found to have higher survival rate than Child-Pugh B. Interestingly, higher baseline MELD-Na score was associated with mortality.

MELD-sodium score and its prognostic value in malignancy-related ascites of pancreatic and gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

Malignant ascites is a manifestation of end-stage events in a variety of cancers. There is significant lack of possible survival predictors in patients with malignancy-related ascites. Since the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD)-Na score has been shown to be a feasible and independent prognostic predictor for both short- and long-term outcome in HCC patients, we decided to test its prognostic role in other cancer types with ascites.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This is a retrospective study. The outpatient oncology clinic's records were screened for the period between 2004 and 2011. Eighty-two pancreatic and gastric cancer patients were enrolled into the study.

RESULTS

The median age of patients was 59 (±12). Fifty-nine patients had gastric cancer and 23 had pancreatic cancer. Overall survival (OS) was 16.8 (IR, 1-98) months in gastric cancer and 16.3 (IR, 0.5-81) months in pancreatic cancer. There was no statistically significant difference between OS of gastric and pancreatic cancer. Progression-free survival (PFS) was statistically significantly longer in gastric cancer than pancreatic cancer with 16.5 (IR, 0.5-90) vs 6.5 (IR, 0.4-34) months (P = 0.04). Further analysis of data included stepwise multiple regression analysis with the dependent variable "overall survival." The model had two independent predictors and an R(2) of 82 % and a predicted R(2) of 81 %. Predictors for time to remission were PFS and MELD-Na. The regression equation for the model was: Overall survival =17.4- 0.522 MELD-Na + 0.902 PFS CONCLUSION: In this study we showed that progression-free survival and MELD-Na score are significantly related with overall survival. MELD-Na score can be one of the predictors of the survival and PFS in pancreatic and gastric cancer patients with ascites.

Imaging predictors of the response to transarterial chemoembolization in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a radiological-pathological correlation

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is one of the standard therapies for bridging patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to transplantation. This study was designed to determine which features on pre- and post-TACE imaging are associated with tumor necrosis in pathological specimens. Records of 105 patients with 132 HCC lesions who underwent liver transplantation after TACE were retrospectively reviewed. In 70% of the nodules, >90% necrosis was achieved. The development of >90% lesion necrosis upon pathological analysis was associated with avid lesion enhancement (P = 0.03) and the presence of a feeding vessel larger than 0.9 mm in diameter on the pre-TACE visceral angiogram (P = 0.01). Near-complete lesion necrosis was also associated with an extensive accumulation of ethiodized oil within a lesion during TACE administration (P = 0.04). On post-TACE computed tomography imaging, a lack of residual contrast enhancement (P < 0.0001), a decrease in the lesion size (P = 0.04), a high lesion density due to an accumulation of ethiodized oil (P = 0.03), and a diffuse distribution of ethiodized oil throughout the lesion (P = 0.0001) were also correlated with near-complete lesion necrosis upon pathological analysis. In conclusion, this study found multiple pre- and post-TACE imaging characteristics of HCC that were associated with near-complete tumor necrosis upon histopathological analysis after TACE. These findings may help to guide the selection of an optimal treatment strategy for bridging patients with HCC to liver transplantation.

Transcatheter chemoembolization for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma and comparison of five staging systems

AIM

We compared the ability of five staging system to predict survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with chemoembolization.

METHODS

The study subjects were 214 patients with HCC treated with repeated chemoembolization alone using cisplatin and lipiodol. Predictors of survival were assessed by multivariate analysis. Before chemoembolization was carried out, the modified Japan Integrated Staging (m-JIS), Japan Integrated Staging (JIS score), Barcelona (BCLC) stage, Liver Cancer Study Group of Japan/Tumor-Node-Metastasis (LCSGJ/TNM) and Italian score (CLIP score) were checked. To validate the prognostic value of these staging systems, the survival curve was obtained and analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method. Discriminatory ability and predictive power were compared using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) score and the likelihood ratio (LR) χ(2) .

RESULTS

 Overall survival was 1 year in 82.9%, 3 years in 39.9% and 5 years in 15.1%. Multivariate analysis identified more than 90% lipiodol accumulation (grade I) after the first chemoembolization (P = 0.001), absence of portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT) (P < 0.001) and liver damage A (P = 0.012) as independent determinants of survival. AIC score and the LR χ(2) showed superior predictive power of the m-JIS system in 95 patients with grade I accumulation of lipiodol after first chemoembolization.

CONCLUSION

The discriminate ability of the m-JIS score is substantially better than those of other staging systems and has better prognostic predictive power in patients with grade I accumulation of lipiodol after first chemoembolization.

Transcatheter arterial chemoembolisation for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis: survival rate and prognostic factors

BACKGROUND

The role of prognostic variables in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) by transarterial chemoembolisation (TACE) is controversial.

AIMS

To evaluate the survival of patients with HCC on cirrhosis treated with TACE and to analyse the prognostic factors affecting survival.

METHODS

From 1996 to 2006, 580 consecutive patients with HCC in cirrhosis were observed. Of these 194 patients underwent TACE. The primary end-point was survival. Independent predictors of survival were identified using the Cox model.

RESULTS

The cumulative 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival rates were 96%, 60%, and 41%, respectively. The multivariate analysis showed significant reduction of survival among patients with serum bilirubin values >2mg/dl compared to patients with values <2mg/dl (Hazard ratio 3.84; CI 95% 1.70-8.66; p-value=0.001). Multivariate analysis performed in the group of patients treated with TACE alone showed that elevated serum bilirubin (Hazard ratio 2.96; CI 95% 1.20-7.3; p-value 0.02) and incomplete tumour response (Hazard ratio 2.88; CI 95% 1.18-7.05; p-value 0.02) are correlated with a worse outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

TACE was well tolerated and overall survival rate was 41% after 5 years. Complete tumour response and serum bilirubin <2mg/dl were identified as predictors of survival.