Child-Pugh, MELD, MELD-Na, and ALBI scores: which liver function models best predicts prognosis for HCC patient with ascites?

Applicability of Child-Turcotte-Pugh Score in Anticipating Post-ERCP Adverse Events in Patients With Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Limited objective data exist on the comparison of post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) complications in patients with cirrhosis based on the severity of the disease. We evaluated the effectiveness of the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score system in anticipating the risk of post-ERCP complications in patients with cirrhosis. The PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched from inception through September 2022 to identify studies comparing post-ERCP complications in patients with cirrhosis based on CTP score. Odds ratios (ORs) and their associated 95% CIs were pooled using a random-effect model to calculate effect size. The reference group for analysis was the CTP class C patient group. Seven studies comprising 821 patients who underwent 1068 ERCP procedures were included. The CTP class C patient population exhibited a higher risk of overall post-ERCP adverse events compared with those with class A or B (OR: 2.87, 95% CI: 1.77-4.65, P = 0.00 and OR: 2.02, 95% CI: 1.17-3.51, P = 0.01, respectively). Moreover, CTP class B patients had a significantly higher complication rate than CTP class A patients (OR: 1.62, 95% CI: 1.04-2.53, P = 0.03). However, no statistically significant differences were found in the occurrence of specific types of complications, including bleeding, pancreatitis, cholangitis, perforation, or mortality across the three CTP groups. We demonstrated that the CTP classification system is a reliable predictor of ERCP complications in patients with cirrhosis. Consequently, caution should be exercised when performing ERCP in patients classified as CTP class C.

Clinical Characteristics and Survival of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Insights from Single-Centre Experience in Saudi Arabia

Background Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents the most common primary liver malignancy, with a high fatality rate. Relatively, Saudi Arabia has a high incidence of HCC, which is detected in later stages with a poor prognosis. This study aims to investigate the patterns, outcomes, and mortality predictors of HCC in Saudi Arabia. Method A retrospective study from April 2018 to June 2022 included patients with HCC who were diagnosed and managed at the Najran Oncology Center, Saudi Arabia. Through our cancer registry, the patients' clinical, laboratory, radiological, and survival profiles were extracted and analyzed to assess factors associated with mortality using a univariate analysis. The overall survival was calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Results The study involved 52 patients with an average age of 74.6 years, predominantly male (the male-to-female ratio is 2.25:1). Viral infections were the primary cause of liver disease in 40.3% (n=21) of patients. At diagnosis, the Child-Pugh class distribution included 23.1% (n=12) patients in class A, 36.5% (n=19) patients in class B, and 40.4% (n=21) patients in class C. Uninodular tumors with ≤50% liver extension were observed in 65.4% (n=34) of cases, and 30.8% (n=16) had portal vein thrombosis. Elevated alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels were noted in 48.1% (n=25) of patients, with 23.1% (n=12) exceeding 400 ng/mL. Curative resection was performed in 32.7% (n=17) of patients. The mean survival time was 23±11.8 months (median of 22.5 months, minimum of six, and maximum of 49 months). Relapse occurred in seven (13.5%) cases, while new metastasis occurred in 20 (38.5%) cases. During the study period, 26 (50.0%) patients died. The main cause of death was disease progression in 15 (28.8%) patients. Univariate analysis showed that AFP>400 ng/mL (OR: 4.68; 95% CI: 1.87-11.66, p=0.001), presence of relapse (OR: 0.16; 95% CI: 0.03-0.78, p=0.023), abdominal ascites (OR: 3.38; 95% CI: 1.25-9.14, p=0.016), advanced the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score (OR: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.41-0.88, p=0.009) were associated with higher mortality rate and were statistically significant. Conclusion Most cases of HCC in our patients were attributed to viral hepatitis, with the majority having liver cirrhosis. Higher AFP (>400 ng/mL), relapse, abdominal ascites, and a higher cancer CLIP score were associated with poorer outcomes. Targeted screening and health education should be advocated; in addition, social determinants should be proactively addressed.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma from a Hepatologist's Perspective

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the most common type of primary liver cancer, represents a growing health challenge worldwide. The incidence of HCC is rising, which, in turn, has led to a corresponding increase in the associated number of deaths. HCC will become the third leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the United States by 2030. HCC usually develops in the setting of chronic liver disease. Individuals at increased risk of HCC are recommended to undergo surveillance with ultrasound every 6 months along with serum α-fetoprotein testing. Computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are considered alternatives based on specific patient factors. Lesions suspicious for HCC are recommended to undergo a diagnostic testing, which includes contrast-enhanced multiphase CT or MRI and liver biopsy when findings are indeterminate. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer prognosis and treatment strategy is the most used assessment for patients with HCC ( Fig. 2 ). Curative therapies include resection, liver transplantation, and ablation. Locoregional therapies, such as transarterial chemoembolization and radioembolization, can be used for patients with intermediate-stage HCC. For patients with advanced-stage HCC, systemic therapy is often used. This review aims to provide an overview of HCC from a hepatologist's perspective, including epidemiology, screening, surveillance, diagnosis, and management.

The Effect of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease 3.0 on Disparities between Patients with and without Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Korea

PURPOSE

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) 3.0 has recently been suggested for determining liver allocation. We aimed to apply MELD 3.0 to a Korean population and to discover differences between patients with and without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study is a retrospective study of 2203 patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis at Severance Hospital between 2016-2022. Harrell's concordance index was used to validate the ability of MELD scores to predict 90-day survival.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 12.9 months, 90-day survival was 61.9% in all patients, 50.4% in the HCC patients, and 74.8% in the non-HCC patients. Within the HCC patients, the concordance index for patients on the waitlist was 0.653 using MELD, which increased to 0.753 using MELD 3.0. Among waitlisted patients, the 90-day survival of HCC patients was worse than that of non-HCC patients with MELD scores of 31-37 only (69.7% vs. 30.0%, p=0.001). Applying MELD 3.0, the 90-day survival of HCC patients was worse than that of non-HCC patients across a wider range of MELD 3.0 scores, compared to MELD, with MELD 3.0 scores of 21-30 and 31-37 (82.0% vs. 72.5% and 72.3% vs. 24.3%, p=0.02 and p<0.001, respectively).

CONCLUSION

MELD 3.0 predicted 90-day survival of the HCC patients more accurately than original MELD score; however, the disparity between HCC and non-HCC patients increased, particularly in patients with MELD scores of 21-30. Therefore, a novel exception score is needed or the current exception score system should be modified.

Prediction models of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation: A comprehensive review

Liver transplantation (LT) is one of the most effective treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Although LT eliminates HCC and greatly reduces recurrence, some patients experience recurrence after LT. Criteria and models for screening patients with a high probability of HCC recurrence after LT, starting with the Milan criteria, have been published. These models have changed over time, but a standard has not been established. We summarized HCC prediction models after LT by focusing on the application of radiologic, serologic, and pathologic factors and recent trends. This review will look at studies that are based on living donor LT and deceased donor LT, as well as studies that downstaging procedures have been performed preoperatively. This ultimately aims to help make decisions for evaluating the HCC state and selecting candidates for LT according to the circumstances of each transplantation center.

A Novel Nomogram Model to Predict the Recurrence-Free Survival and Overall Survival of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background

Treatments for patients with early‐stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) include liver transplantation (LT), liver resection (LR), radiofrequency ablation (RFA), and microwave ablation (MWA), are critical for their long-term survival. However, a computational model predicting treatment-independent prognosis of patients with HCC, such as overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS), is yet to be developed, to our best knowledge. The goal of this study is to identify prognostic factors associated with OS and RFS in patients with HCC and develop nomograms to predict them, respectively.

Methods

We retrospectively retrieved 730 patients with HCC from three hospitals in China and followed them up for 3 and 5 years after invasive treatment. All enrolled patients were randomly divided into the training cohort and the validation cohort with a 7:3 ratio, respectively. Independent prognostic factors associated with OS and RFS were determined by the multivariate Cox regression analysis. Two nomogram prognostic models were built and evaluated by concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC), the Kaplan–Meier survival curve, and decision curve analyses (DCAs), respectively.

Results

Prognostic factors for OS and RFS were identified, and nomograms were successfully built. Calibration discrimination was good for both the OS and RFS nomogram prediction models (C-index: 0.750 and 0.746, respectively). For both nomograms, the AUC demonstrated outstanding predictive performance; the DCA shows that the model has good decision ability; and the calibration curve demonstrated strong predictive power. The nomograms successfully discriminated high-risk and low-risk patients with HCC associated with OS and RFS.

Conclusions

We developed nomogram survival prediction models to predict the prognosis of HCC after invasive treatment with acceptable accuracies in both training and independent testing cohorts. The models may have clinical values in guiding the selection of clinical treatment strategies.

Lenvatinib plus sintilimab versus lenvatinib monotherapy as first-line treatment for advanced HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma: A retrospective, real-world study

Background

The most common type of primary liver cancer is hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related HCC accounts for many HCC cases and has a high mortality rate. The goal of our study was to investigate the efficacy and safety of lenvatinib plus sintilimab therapy in real-world practice and identify factors affecting long-term prognosis.

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted with 139 consecutive patients with unresectable HCC treated with lenvatinib or lenvatinib plus sintilimab at the Fifth Medical Center of PLA General Hospital from June 2018 to June 2021. The 139 patients were divided into the control group (85 patients) and the combined treatment group (54 patients) according to the antitumour drugs used for treatment. Efficacy was determined using the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) 1.1 and the HCC-specific modified RECIST (mRECIST) for 139 patients who completed the 1st and second tumour assessments. Safety was evaluated in 60 patients in the combined treatment group and 90 patients in the control group using the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 5.0.

Results

A total of 139 male Chinese patients (49.6% ≥ 55 years old) were included in the efficacy analysis. The median overall survival in the combined treatment group was 21.7 months, and the median progression-free survival was 11.3 months. According to the mRECIST criteria, the objective response rate was 38.9%, and the disease control rate was 92.6%. The median overall survival (mOS), median progression-free survival (mPFS), overall response rate (ORR) and disease control rate (DCR) in the lenvatinib monotherapy group were 12.8 months, 6.6 months, 24.7%, and 74.1%, respectively. Hypertension was the most common adverse event in both groups. Some immune-related adverse events, such as hypothyroidism (n = 5), elevated blood creatinine (n = 3), elevated cardiac enzymes (n = 1), elevated amylase (n = 1) and increased fasting glucose (n = 1), occurred only in the combined therapy group. Five patients in the lenvatinib monotherapy group and six patients in the lenvatinib plus sintilimab group discontinued therapy due to severe adverse events (AEs) (grade 3). No ≥ 4-grade AEs occurred in any patients.

Conclusion

The TKI lenvatinib combined with PD-1-targeted immunotherapy sintilimab is efficacious and safe in real-world practice and may lead to better long-term outcomes than lenvatinib alone.

Child-Pugh Score and ABCG2-rs2231142 Genotype Independently Predict Survival in Advanced Hepatoma Patients Treated with Sorafenib

Patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are treated by immunotherapy and/or targeted agents, such as sorafenib. Several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and clinical scores have been proposed as prognostic markers in HCC patients treated with sorafenib. This study aimed to validate the prognostic values of these markers in a tertiary referral medical center. Two independent cohorts (cohort-1 [n = 97] and cohort-2 [n = 60]) of advanced HCC patients treated with sorafenib monotherapy were enrolled. Univariate followed by multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis identified Child−Pugh (CP) score (p < 0.001) and renal insufficiency during treatment (p < 0.001) as independent predictors in cohort-1 patients. The same analytic method revealed ascites (p = 0.000), CP score (p = 0.001), infection during treatment (p < 0.001), and ATP-binding cassette subfamily G member 2 (ABCG2)-rs2231142 genotype (p = 0.003) as independent predictors in cohort-2 patients. ABCG2-rs2231142 genotype “CC” was associated with unfavorable overall survival in sorafenib-treated HCC patients. In conclusion, the CP score and ABCG2-rs2231142 genotype served as independent survival predictors for advanced HCC patients receiving sorafenib treatment.

From Child-Pugh to MELD score and beyond: Taking a walk down memory lane

The Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and the MELD (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease) scores were designed to predict the outcome of decompressive therapy for portal hypertension. They were prospectively validated to predict mortality risk in patients with a wide spectrum of liver disease etiology and severity. Unlike the CTP score, the MELD score was derived from prospectively gathered data. Its calculation was based on serum bilirubin, serum creatinine, international normalized ratio (INR) and etiology of liver disease. Instituting a continuous disease severity score that de-emphasizes waiting time resulted in better categorization of waiting patients and enhanced transparency. The US instituted the MELD system in 2002 and soon thereafter, MELD-based liver allocation was adopted throughout the world including Latin America. The most significant impact of MELD-based policies has been the reduction of waiting-list mortality. In the years after implementation of the MELD system, several options have been proposed to improve the MELD score's accuracy. Adding serum sodium (MELD-Na) increased the accuracy of the score in predicting waiting list mortality, thus completing the original MELD score as a prognostic model in liver allocation. On the 20th anniversary of the creation of MELD score we present a brief account of its development, its use to stratify patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation as well as its adoption as liver allocation system .

Hepatocellular carcinoma locoregional therapies: Outcomes and future horizons

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary cancer of the liver and has an overall five-year survival rate of less than twenty percent. For patients with unresectable disease, evolving liver-directed locoregional therapies provide efficacious treatment across the spectrum of disease stages and via a variety of catheter-directed and percutaneous techniques. Goals of locoregional therapies in HCC may include curative intent in early-stage disease, bridging or downstaging to surgical resection or transplantation for early or intermediate-stage disease, and local disease control and palliation in advanced-stage disease. This review explores the outcomes of chemoembolization, bland embolization, radioembolization, and percutaneous ablative therapies. Attention is also given to prognostic factors related to each of the respective techniques, as well as future directions of locoregional therapies for HCC.

Hsa‑circRNA‑G004213 promotes cisplatin sensitivity by regulating miR‑513b‑5p/PRPF39 in liver cancer

In recent years, increasing evidence has confirmed that exosomal circular RNAs (circRNAs) serve a crucial role in the prognostic prediction and diagnosis of liver cancer (LC). The present study compared the expression patterns of exosomal circRNAs during transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). CircRNA sequencing analysis identified 390 differentially expressed circRNAs between the prior TACE and following the first TACE operation groups and 489 differentially expressed circRNAs between the prior to TACE and following the second TACE operation groups. Gene Ontology analysis of the differentially expressed circRNAs demonstrated that they were associated with fatty acid metabolism, receptor binding and membrane protein complexes. Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathway analysis predicted that protein digestion and absorption pathways were activated following TACE. A novel gene was screened out; hsa‑circRNA‑G004213 (circ‑G004213) was significantly upregulated following TACE (fold change >10, P < 0.01). Further analysis found circ‑G004213 significantly increased the cisplatin sensitivity of HepG2 cells and positively associated with the prognosis of tumor‑bearing mice. Based on the potential downstream miRNAs and mRNAs, the circRNA‑miRNA‑mRNA network was constructed. It was demonstrated that circ‑G004213 regulated cisplatin resistance via the miR‑513b‑5p/PRPF39 axis. Finally, the present study confirmed that circ‑G004213 was positively associated with the prognosis of patients with LC following TACE. Therefore, circ‑G004213 may be used as an indicator for predicting the efficacy of TACE.