Habitat-related prevalence of macroscopicMycobacterium bovisinfection in brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula), Hohonu Range, Westland, New Zealand

Epidemiology and control of Mycobacterium bovis infection in brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula), the primary wildlife host of bovine tuberculosis in New Zealand

The introduced Australian brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) is a maintenance host for bovine tuberculosis (TB) in New Zealand and plays a central role in the TB problem in this country. The TB-possum problem emerged in the late 1960s, and intensive lethal control of possums is now used to reduce densities to low levels over 8 million ha of the country. This review summarises what is currently known about the pathogenesis and epidemiology of TB in possums, and how the disease responds to possum control. TB in possums is a highly lethal disease, with most possums likely to die within 6 months of becoming infected. The mechanisms of transmission between possums remain unclear, but appear to require some form of close contact or proximity. At large geographic scales, TB prevalence in possum populations is usually low (1-5%), but local prevalence can sometimes reach 60%. Intensive, systematic and uniform population control has been highly effective in breaking the TB cycle in possum populations, and where that control has been sustained for many years the prevalence of TB is now zero or near zero. Although some uncertainties remain, local eradication of TB from possums appears to be straightforward, given that TB managers now have the ability to reduce possum numbers to near zero levels and to maintain them at those levels for extended periods where required. We conclude that, although far from complete, the current understanding of TB-possum epidemiology, and the current management strategies and tactics, are sufficient to achieve local, regional, and even national disease eradication from possums in New Zealand.

Development of integrated surveillance systems for the management of tuberculosis in New Zealand wildlife

Disease surveillance for the management of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in New Zealand has focussed, to a large extent, on the development of tools specific for monitoring Mycobacterium bovis infection in wildlife. Diagnostic techniques have been modified progressively over 30 years of surveillance of TB in wildlife, from initial characterisation of gross TB lesions in a variety of wildlife, through development of sensitive culture techniques to identify viable mycobacteria, to molecular identification of individual M. bovis strains. Of key importance in disease surveillance has been the elucidation of the roles that different wildlife species play in the transmission of infection, specifically defining brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) as true maintenance hosts compared to those that are predominantly spillover hosts, but which may serve as useful sentinel species to indicate TB persistence. Epidemiological modelling has played a major role in TB surveillance, initially providing the theoretical support for large-scale possum population control and setting targets at which control effort should be deployed to ensure disease eradication. As TB prevalence in livestock and wildlife declined throughout the 2000s, more varied field tools were developed to gather surveillance data from the diminishing possum populations, and to provide information on changing TB prevalence. Accordingly, ever more precise (but disparate) surveillance information began to be integrated into multi-faceted decision-assist models to support TB management decisions, particularly to provide informed parameters at which control effort could be halted, culminating in the Proof of Freedom modelling framework that now allows an area to be declared TB-free within chosen confidence limits. As New Zealand moves from large-scale TB control to regional eradication of disease in the coming years, further integrative models will need to be developed to support management decisions, based on combined field data of possum and TB prevalence, sentinel information, risk assessment in relation to financial benefits, and changing political and environmental needs.

A novel approach to assess the probability of disease eradication from a wild-animal reservoir host

Surveying and declaring disease freedom in wildlife is difficult because information on population size and spatial distribution is often inadequate. We describe and demonstrate a novel spatial model of wildlife disease-surveillance data for predicting the probability of freedom of bovine tuberculosis (caused by Mycobacterium bovis) in New Zealand, in which the introduced brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) is the primary wildlife reservoir. Using parameters governing home-range size, probability of capture, probability of infection and spatial relative risks of infection we employed survey data on reservoir hosts and spillover sentinels to make inference on the probability of eradication. Our analysis revealed high sensitivity of model predictions to parameter values, which demonstrated important differences in the information contained in survey data of host-reservoir and spillover-sentinel species. The modelling can increase cost efficiency by reducing the likelihood of prematurely declaring success due to insufficient control, and avoiding unnecessary costs due to excessive control and monitoring.

Contact patterns as a risk factor for bovine tuberculosis infection in a free-living adult brushtail possum Trichosurus vulpecula population

The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for bovine tuberculosis (TB) in a free-roaming, capture-mark-recapture monitored possum Trichosurus vulpecula population in a 22-ha study site at Castlepoint, New Zealand from 1 April 1989 to 31 March 1994. A matched case-control design was used to evaluate the influence of sex, habitat and contact opportunities on TB risk. Cases comprised possums identified as TB-positive throughout the study period. Controls were selected from the group of possums that were captured and showed no clinical signs of TB throughout the study period. Measures derived from a social network analysis of possum capture locations such as degree, clustering coefficient (CC) and betweenness were used to represent potential contact opportunities among possums. Network analysis measures recorded for individual possums in the 12-month period before a diagnosis of TB were evaluated in a conditional logistic regression model. We found no evidence of an association between case status and the total number of possums with which there was potential contact (degree) (P=0.5). The odds of cases being exposed to unit increases in the number of TB-positive contacts was 2.50 (95% CI 1.24-5.05; P<0.01) times that of controls. This effect was conditional on the total number of potential contacts made, with a negative interaction with increasing degree. These findings indicate that potential contact with TB-positive possums increases the odds of disease whereas potential contact with large numbers of possums does not. This suggests that multiple contacts with TB-positive possum(s) are necessary for transmission of TB and this is more likely to occur in networks that are smaller. We challenge the hypothesis that contact with large numbers of individuals increases the probability of becoming TB infected and argue that individual contact behaviour is a determinant of the creation of TB foci within free-living possum populations.

Maintenance, spillover and spillback transmission of bovine tuberculosis in multi-host wildlife complexes: a New Zealand case study

The causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (bTB; Mycobacterium bovis) has a broad host range. The role of each animal species in spreading the disease depends on how transmission occurs, on the abundance of each host, and on the interactions between hosts. This paper explores differences in the roles individual host species can play in allowing M. bovis infection to persist and spread within a multi-species complex, using New Zealand as a case study. In New Zealand, four wild mammal species are frequently infected. Of these the brushtail possum is now regarded as the only true "maintenance" host. Red deer and ferrets can become maintenance hosts where their densities are exceptionally high, but more often they are "spillover" hosts, with most infection arising from moderately frequent inter-species transmission from possums. The latter situation is even more strongly the case for feral pigs. Spillover hosts may occasionally play a crucial epidemiological role by transmitting infection back to a potential maintenance host (spillback). Three key factors make spillback transmission far more epidemiologically important than its low frequency of occurrence might suggest--amplification of the reservoir of bTB, far greater spatial spread than by the maintenance host, and greater persistence of bTB in long-lived spillover hosts extending the risk of spillback far into the future. The risk of spillback is undoubtedly low, but it nonetheless determines the nature, scale and duration of management required. Eradication of the disease may require management of both the infection in maintenance hosts and reduction or elimination of any risk of spillback.

The effect of fertility control on the transmission of bovine tuberculosis in wild brushtail possums

AIM

To determine the effect of fertility control on the rate of transmission of bovine tuberculosis (Tb), caused by Mycobacterium bovis, in brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula).

METHODS

At two study sites with a history of Tb infection in the resident possum population, a sample of adult male and female possums (n=50), determined by palpation to be Tb-free, was surgically sterilised by gonadectomy. A sample of untreated Tb-free male and female possums (n=54) served as controls. Each study site was trapped every 2 months over a 3-year period, and the Tb status of the individuals in the trial assessed. At the conclusion of the trial, all remaining experimental individuals were killed, necropsied and examined for characteristic lesions typical of Tb. The rate of transmission of Tb infection was estimated using the incidence of tuberculous cases in the experimental animals and comparing it between sites, sex and sterilisation treatment.

RESULTS

Sterilisation by gonadectomy resulted in a reduction in the rate of transmission of Tb in male possums by 53%, but a corresponding increase in sterilised females for reasons that are still unclear. However, this interaction was statistically weak (p=0.10). When the sexes were combined, there was no overall effect of sterilisation on the rate of transmission of Tb (p=0.43). Sterility treatment notwithstanding, there was a highly significant difference in the rate of transmission between the sexes (p=0.01), being almost one order of magnitude higher in untreated males compared with untreated females.

CONCLUSIONS

Although lacking strong statistical support, these results suggest that fertility control that targets endocrine control of fertility may provide some additional benefits for disease control over that achieved by reductions in population density, by reducing the rate of transmission of M. bovis in male possums. However, additional studies are needed to confirm the validity of these results. The large difference in the rate of transmission of M. bovis in untreated males compared with untreated females suggests that transmission of Tb among males may be an important driver of the dynamics of Tb infection in possums.

Ranging behaviour and duration of survival of wild brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) infected withMycobacterium bovis

AIM

To quantify the duration of survival of possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) infected with Mycobacterium bovis, and identify aspects of their behaviour which may influence the likelihood of disease transmission to domestic stock or wildlife.

METHODS

Capture and den locations of 14 naturally infected tuberculous possums, eight possums experimentally infected with M. bovis and eight non-infected possums were recorded between May 1998 and February 2000 at a study site near Castlepoint on the Wairarapa coast of the North Island in New Zealand. Denning behaviour was observed weekly using radiotelemetry, and possums were captured, examined and released bi-monthly. Data were used to estimate survival period; create denning, activity, and total ranges; and to identify extended forays by possums as individuals and groups.

RESULTS

Seventeen tuberculous possum carcasses were recovered, of which 14 (82%) were close to or within their activity range. Denning ranges were known for 10/17 possums that died. Four tuberculous possums were found dead within their denning range. Three possums made extended forays in the 3 weeks before death. Twelve possums were found dead in dense scrub, three in long grass in open woodland and two on pasture. Mean duration of survival of naturally infected possums following detection of clinical signs was 3.4 months (95% CI=2.1-5.4) and the instantaneous mortality rate was 0.293 per month (95% CI=0.184-0.470). Signs of disease were obvious for about 3 weeks prior to death. Tuberculous possums were commonly trapped on only part of the area where the total non-infected population was trapped.

CONCLUSION

Most tuberculous possums died within their activity range and in scrub, representing a risk of transmission of M. bovis to wildlife and livestock that forage in scrub. Smaller proportions dying on pasture represent a less frequent, but highly visible risk. Tuberculous possums were clustered on the study site, and localised possum control operations would be more effective if focussed on such areas.

The relationship between prevalence of Mycobacterium bovis infection in feral ferrets and possum abundance

AIM

To determine the relationship between the prevalence of macroscopic Mycobacterium bovis infection in feral ferrets (Mustela furo) and the abundance of brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula).

METHODS

The predictive power of a previously reported positive association between the prevalence of macroscopic M. bovis infection in ferrets and possum abundance was examined by undertaking surveys of M. bovis infection in ferrets at sites of low and high possum abundance. The association was then tested by a manipulative experiment that measured changes in the prevalence of macroscopic M. bovis infection in feral ferrets after reducing possum abundance.

RESULTS

The positive relationship between the prevalence of macroscopic M. bovis infection in ferrets and possum abundance remained valid for new survey data, although the goodness of fit of the relationship was reduced. Experimentally reducing possum abundance reduced the odds of macroscopic M. bovis infection in ferrets by 80% in the years immediately following possum control (Odds Ratio=0.23, p=0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a causal link between possum abundance and the prevalence of macroscopic M. bovis infection in feral ferrets in areas in which M. bovis infection is known to occur in ferret populations. This suggests that possum-to-ferret transmission of disease occurs and accounts for most of the disease evident in ferret populations, though does not determine whether ferrets are spillover or maintenance hosts of M. bovis. Management to reduce the prevalence of M. bovis infection in ferrets should consider reducing possum abundance as a control tactic.