War-related excess mortality in The Netherlands, 1944-45: New estimates of famine- and non-famine-related deaths from national death records

Infant and child mortality in the Netherlands 1935-47 and changes related to the Dutch famine of 1944-45: A population-based analysis

Precise estimates of the impact of famine on infant and child mortality are rare due to lack of representative data. Using vital statistics reports on the Netherlands for 1935-47, we examine the impact of the Dutch famine (November 1944 to May 1945) on age-specific mortality risk and cause of death in four age groups (stillbirths, <1 year, 1-4, 5-14) in the three largest famine-affected cities and the remainder of the country. Mortality during the famine is compared with the pre-war period January 1935 to April 1940, the war period May 1940 to October 1944, and the post-war period June 1945 to December 1947. The famine's impact was most visible in infants because of the combined effects of a high absolute death rate and a threefold increase in proportional mortality, mostly from gastrointestinal conditions. These factors make infant mortality the most sensitive indicator of famine severity in this setting and a candidate marker for comparative use in future studies.

Famine mortality and contributions to later-life type 2 diabetes at the population level: a synthesis of findings from Ukrainian, Dutch and Chinese famines

Since the 1970s, influential literature has been using famines as natural experiments to examine the long-term health impact of prenatal famine exposure at the individual level. Although studies based on various famines have consistently shown that prenatal famine exposure is associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), no studies have yet quantified the contribution of famines to later-life T2D at the population level. We, therefore, synthesised findings from the famines in Ukraine 1932-1933, the Western Netherlands 1944-1945 and China 1959-1961 to make preliminary estimates of T2D cases attributable to prenatal famine exposure. These famines were selected because they provide the most extensive and reliable data from an epidemiological perspective. We observed a consistent increase in T2D risk among prenatally exposed individuals in these famines, which translated into about 21 000, 400 and 0.9 million additional T2D cases due to prenatal famine exposure in Ukraine, Western Netherlands and China, respectively. The T2D increase related to famine exposure represented only around 1% of prevalent T2D cases in these countries. Our observations highlight the significant increase in later-life T2D risk among individuals with prenatal famine exposure but also the limited contribution of prenatal famine exposure to T2D epidemics at the population level.

Severe prenatal shocks and adolescent health: Evidence from the Dutch Hunger Winter

This paper investigates health impacts at the end of adolescence of prenatal exposure to multiple shocks, by exploiting the unique natural experiment of the Dutch Hunger Winter. At the end of World War II, a famine occurred abruptly in the Western Netherlands (November 1944-May 1945), pushing the previously and subsequently well-nourished Dutch population to the brink of starvation. We link high-quality military recruits data with objective health measurements for the cohorts born in the years surrounding WWII with newly digitised historical records on calories and nutrient composition of the war rations, daily temperature, and warfare deaths. Using difference-in-differences and triple differences research designs, we first show that the cohorts exposed to the Dutch Hunger Winter since early gestation have a higher Body Mass Index and an increased probability of being obese at age 18. We then find that this effect is partly moderated by warfare exposure and a reduction in energy-adjusted protein intake. Lastly, we account for selective mortality using a copula-based approach and newly-digitised data on survival rates, and find evidence of both selection and scarring effects. These results emphasise the complexity of the mechanisms at play in studying the consequences of early conditions.

How much schizophrenia do famines cause?

Since the 1970s, famines have been widely invoked as natural experiments in research into the long-term impact of foetal exposure to nutritional shocks. That research has produced compelling evidence for a robust link between foetal exposure and the odds of developing schizophrenia. However, the implications of that research for the human cost of famines in the longer run have not been investigated. We address the connection between foetal origins and schizophrenia with that question in mind. The impact turns out to be very modest-much less than one per cent of the associated famine death tolls-across a selection of case studies.

Windows of Vulnerability: Consequences of Exposure Timing during the Dutch Hunger Winter

Prior research on early-life exposures to famine has established in utero development as a critical period of vulnerability to malnutrition. Yet, previous research tends to focus narrowly on this stage, at the expense of a more comprehensive examination of childhood. As a result, the literature has yet to compare the severity of the consequences of exposure to malnutrition across developmentally salient periods. Such comparison is crucial not only in the magnitude of effects but also in the nature of outcomes. Using a restricted population registry-linked health survey, this study examines the Dutch Hunger Winter to provide a comprehensive examination of the long-term consequences of in utero, infant, childhood, and adolescent exposure to famine. The results show malnutrition leads to heterogeneous effects depending on when the exposure occurs. In utero exposure to malnutrition leads to deleterious conditions in physical health and lower socioeconomic attainment. For older cohorts, results suggest a resilience to the effects of malnutrition on physical health in late life, but a higher vulnerability to socioeconomic stunting. Furthermore, the results suggest important gender differences in the long-term impact of malnutrition. Males consistently show stronger negative consequences across a wider array of conditions.

Paleodemography: From archaeology and skeletal age estimation to life in the past

Much of paleodemography, an interdisciplinary field with strong ties to archaeology, among other disciplines, is oriented toward clarifying the life experiences of past people and why they changed over time. We focus on how human skeletons contribute to our understanding of preindustrial demographic regimes, including when changes took place that led to the world as we know it today. Problems with existing paleodemographic practices are highlighted, as are promising directions for future work. The latter requires both better age estimates and innovative methods to handle data appropriately. Age-at-death estimates for adult skeletons are a particular problem, especially for adults over 50 years that undoubtedly are mistakenly underrepresented in published studies of archaeological skeletons. Better age estimates for the entirety of the lifespan are essential to generate realistic distributions of age at death. There are currently encouraging signs that after about a half-century of intensive, and sometimes contentious, research, paleodemography is poised to contribute much to understandings of evolutionary processes, the structure of past populations, and human-disease interaction, among other topics.

What should be the baseline when calculating excess mortality? New approaches suggest that we have underestimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and previous winter peaks

Excess mortality has been used to measure the impact of COVID-19 over time and across countries. But what baseline should be chosen? We propose two novel approaches: an alternative retrospective baseline derived from the lowest weekly death rates achieved in previous years and a within-year baseline based on the average of the 13 lowest weekly death rates within the same year. These baselines express normative levels of the lowest feasible target death rates. The excess death rates calculated from these baselines are not distorted by past mortality peaks and do not treat non-pandemic winter mortality excesses as inevitable.

We obtained weekly series for 35 industrialized countries from the Human Mortality Database for 2000–2020. Observed, baseline and excess mortalities were measured by age-standardized death rates. We assessed weekly and annual excess death rates driven by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and those related to seasonal respiratory infections in earlier years. There was a distinct geographic pattern with high excess death rates in Eastern Europe followed by parts of the UK, and countries of Southern and Western Europe. Some Asia-Pacific and Scandinavian countries experienced lower excess mortality. In 2020 and earlier years, the alternative retrospective and the within-year excess mortality figures were higher than estimates based on conventional metrics. While the latter were typically negative or close to zero in years without extraordinary epidemics, the alternative estimates were substantial. Cumulation of this "usual" excess over 2–3 years results in human losses comparable to those caused by COVID-19.

Challenging the view that non-pandemic seasonal winter mortality is inevitable would focus attention on reducing premature mortality in many countries. As SARS-CoV-2 is unlikely to be the last respiratory pathogen with the potential to cause a pandemic, such measures would also strengthen global resilience in the face of similar threats in the future.

•

Conventional estimates of excess mortality underestimate potentially avoidable losses.

•

We propose metrics based on best weeks in the same and in earlier years.

•

Our alternative metrics estimate higher annual excess mortality in 2020 and 2005-19.

•

Mortality peaks in non-pandemic years should be regarded as potentially avoidable.

Undernutrition is feeding the tuberculosis pandemic: A perspective

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major cause of death worldwide, with 1.5 million deaths in 2020. While TB incidence and mortality had previously been on a downwards trend, in 2020, TB mortality actually rose for the first time in a decade, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Undernutrition is the leading risk factor for TB, with a population attributable fraction (PAF) of 15%, compared to 7.6% for HIV. Individuals who are undernourished are more likely to develop active TB compared to those with a healthy bodyweight. They are also more likely to have greater severity of TB, and less likely to have successful TB treatment outcomes. The likelihood of TB mortality significantly increases as weight decreases. Nutritional interventions are likely to improve both nutritional status and TB treatment success, thereby decreasing TB mortality. However, many previous studies focusing on nutritional interventions have provided insufficient calories or been underpowered. Nutritional supplementation will be particularly important as factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, and political conflict further threaten food security. The global TB elimination effort can no longer afford to ignore undernutrition.

Famine food of vegetal origin consumed in the Netherlands during World War II

BACKGROUND

Periods of extreme food shortages during war force people to eat food that they normally do not consider edible. The last time that countries in Western Europe experienced severe scarcities was during World War II. The so-called Dutch famine or Hunger Winter (1944-1945) made at least 25,000 victims. The Dutch government took action by opening soup kitchens and providing information on wild plants and other famine food sources in "wartime cookbooks." The Dutch wartime diet has never been examined from an ethnobotanical perspective.

METHODS

We interviewed 78 elderly Dutch citizens to verify what they remembered of the consumption of vegetal and fungal famine food during World War II by them and their close surroundings. We asked whether they experienced any adverse effects from consuming famine food plants and how they knew they were edible. We identified plant species mentioned during interviews by their local Dutch names and illustrated field guides and floras. We hypothesized that people living in rural areas consumed more wild species than urban people. A Welch t test was performed to verify whether the number of wild and cultivated species differed between urban and rural citizens.

RESULTS

A total number of 38 emergency food species (14 cultivated and 21 wild plants, three wild fungi) were mentioned during interviews. Sugar beets, tulip bulbs, and potato peels were most frequently consumed. Regularly eaten wild species were common nettle, blackberry, and beechnuts. Almost one third of our interviewees explicitly described to have experienced extreme hunger during the war. People from rural areas listed significantly more wild species than urban people. The number of cultivated species consumed by both groups was similar. Negative effects were limited to sore throats and stomachache from the consumption of sugar beets and tulip bulbs. Knowledge on the edibility of famine food was obtained largely by oral transmission; few people remembered the written recipes in wartime cookbooks.

CONCLUSION

This research shows that 71 years after the Second World War, knowledge on famine food species, once crucial for people's survival, is still present in the Dutch society. The information on famine food sources supplied by several institutions was not distributed widely. For the necessary revival of famine food knowledge during the 1940s, people needed to consult a small group of elders. Presumed toxicity was a major reason given by our participants to explain why they did not collect wild plants or mushrooms during the war.