Head-to-head comparison of prognostic models of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage: tools for personalized care and clinical trial in ICH

A machine learning model based on results of a comprehensive radiological evaluation can predict the prognosis of basal ganglia cerebral hemorrhage treated with neuroendoscopy

Introduction

Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage is the second most common subtype of stroke. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients with basal ganglia cerebral hemorrhage after neuroendoscopy.

Methods

Between January 2020 and January 2024, 130 patients with basal ganglia cerebral hemorrhage who underwent neuroendoscopy were recruited from two independent centers. We split this dataset into training (n = 79), internal validation (n = 22), and external validation (n = 29) sets. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator-regression algorithm was used to select the top 10 important radiomic features of different regions (perioperative hemorrhage area [PRH], perioperative surround area [PRS], postoperative hemorrhage area [PSH], and postoperative edema area [PSE]). The black hole, island, blend, and swirl signs were evaluated. The top 10 radiomic features and 4 radiological features were combined to construct the k-nearest neighbor classification (KNN), logistic regression (LR), and support vector machine (SVM) models. Finally, the performance of the perioperative hemorrhage and postoperative edema machine learning models was validated using another independent dataset (n = 29). The primary outcome is mRS at 6 months after discharge. The mRS score greater than 3 defined as functional independence.

Results

A total of 12 models were built: PRH-KNN, PRH-LR, PRH-SVM, PRS-KNN, PRS-LR, PRS-SVM, PSH-KNN, PSH-LR, PSH-SVM, PSE-KNN, PSE-LR, and PSE-SVM, with corresponding areas under the curve (AUC) values in the internal validation set of 0.95, 0.91, 0.94, 0.52, 0.91, 0.54, 0.67, 0.9, 0.72, 0.92, 0.92, and 0.95, respectively. The AUC values of the PRH-KNN, PRH-LR, PRH-SVM, PSE-KNN, PSE-LR, and PSE-SVM in the external validation were 0.9, 0.92, 0.89, 0.91, 0.92, and 0.88, respectively.

Conclusion

The model built based on computed tomography images of different regions accurately predicted the prognosis of patients with basal ganglia cerebral hemorrhage treated with neuroendoscopy. The models built based on the preoperative hematoma area and postoperative edema area showed excellent predictive efficacy in external verification, which has important clinical significance.

Guidelines for Neuroprognostication in Critically Ill Adults with Intracerebral Hemorrhage

BACKGROUND

The objective of this document is to provide recommendations on the formal reliability of major clinical predictors often associated with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) neuroprognostication.

METHODS

A narrative systematic review was completed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation methodology and the Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome, Timing, Setting questions. Predictors, which included both individual clinical variables and prediction models, were selected based on clinical relevance and attention in the literature. Following construction of the evidence profile and summary of findings, recommendations were based on Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation criteria. Good practice statements addressed essential principles of neuroprognostication that could not be framed in the Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome, Timing, Setting format.

RESULTS

Six candidate clinical variables and two clinical grading scales (the original ICH score and maximally treated ICH score) were selected for recommendation creation. A total of 347 articles out of 10,751 articles screened met our eligibility criteria. Consensus statements of good practice included deferring neuroprognostication-aside from the most clinically devastated patients-for at least the first 48-72 h of intensive care unit admission; understanding what outcomes would have been most valued by the patient; and counseling of patients and surrogates whose ultimate neurological recovery may occur over a variable period of time. Although many clinical variables and grading scales are associated with ICH poor outcome, no clinical variable alone or sole clinical grading scale was suggested by the panel as currently being reliable by itself for use in counseling patients with ICH and their surrogates, regarding functional outcome at 3 months and beyond or 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

These guidelines provide recommendations on the formal reliability of predictors of poor outcome in the context of counseling patients with ICH and surrogates and suggest broad principles of neuroprognostication. Clinicians formulating their judgments of prognosis for patients with ICH should avoid anchoring bias based solely on any one clinical variable or published clinical grading scale.

Increased serum fibroblast growth factor 21 levels are associated with adverse clinical outcomes after intracerebral hemorrhage

Introduction

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is the most prevalent cause of death. We sought to explore whether serum Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) is of substantial benefit in predicting poor prognosis in ICH patient.

Methods

A prospective, multicenter cohort analysis of serum FGF21 levels in 418 ICH patients was carried out. At three months following ICH start, the primary endpoint was death or major disability, whereas the secondary endpoint was death. We investigated the association between serum FGF21 and clinical outcomes. We added FGF21 to the existing rating scale to assess whether it enhanced the prediction ability of the original model. Effectiveness was determined by calculating the C-statistic, net reclassification index (NRI), absolute integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) index.

Results

Among 418 enrolled patients, 217 (51.9%) of the all subjects had death or significant disability. Compared with patients in the lowest quartile group, those in the first quartile group had higher risk of the primary outcome (Odds ratio, 2.73 [95%CI,1.42-5.26, p < 0.05]) and second outcome (Hazard ratio, 4.28 [95%CI,1.61-11.42, p < 0.001]). The integration of FGF21 into many current ICH scales improved the discrimination and calibration quality for the integrated discrimination index's prediction of main and secondary findings (all p < 0.05).

Conclusion

Elevated serum FGF21 is associated with increased risks of adverse clinical outcomes at 3 months in ICH patients, suggesting FGF21 may be a valuable prognostic factor.

Prognostic Value of Circadian Brain Temperature Rhythm in Basal Ganglia Hemorrhage After Surgery

Introduction

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. However, both the rhythmic variation and prognostic value of brain temperature after ICH remain unknown. In this study, we investigated brain temperature rhythm and its prognostic value for post-operative mortality and long-term functional outcomes in patients with ICH.

Methods

Post-operative diurnal brain temperature patterns at the basal ganglion are described. Following surgery for ICH, 78 patients were enrolled, and intracranial pressure and brain temperature were monitored using a fiber optic device. Brain temperature mesor, amplitude, and acrophase were estimated from the recorded temperature measurements, using cosinor analysis, and the association between these patterns and clinical parameters, mortality, and functional outcomes at the 12-month follow-up were examined.

Results

According to cosinor analysis, brain temperature in 55.1% of patients showed a circadian rhythm within 72 h post-surgery. The rhythm-adjusted mesor of brain temperature (± standard deviation) was 37.6 (± 0.7) °C, with a diminished mean amplitude. A temperature acrophase shift was also observed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that initial age and circadian rhythm of brain temperature appeared to be predictive and prognostic of functional outcomes. Further, patients with higher brain temperature mesor were more likely to survive than those with a lower mesor.

Conclusion

For patients with ICH, brain temperature rhythm analysis is an improved prognostic tool for mortality and functional outcome predictions.