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Gantois J. New tree-level temperature response curves document sensitivity of tree growth to high temperatures across a US-wide climatic gradient. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:6002-6020. [PMID: 35733243 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16313] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2021] [Accepted: 05/18/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Temperature is a key climate indicator, whose distribution is expected to shift right in a warming world. However, the high-temperature tolerance of trees is less widely understood than their drought tolerance, especially when it comes to sub-lethal impacts of temperature on tree growth. I use a large data set of annual tree ring widths, combined with a flexible degree day model, to estimate the relationship between temperature and tree radial growth. I find that tree radial growth responds non-linearly to temperature across many ecoregions of the United States: across temperate and/or dry ecoregions, spring-summer temperature increases are beneficial or mostly neutral for tree growth up to around 25-30°C in humid climates and 10-15°C in dry climates, beyond which temperature increases suppress growth. Thirty additional degree days above the optimal temperature breakpoint lead to an average decrease in tree ring width of around 1%-5%, depending on ecoregions, seasons, and inclusion or exclusion of temperature-mediated drought impacts. High temperatures have legacy effects across a 5-year horizon in dry ecoregions, but none in the temperate-humid South-East or among temperature-sensitive trees. I find limited evidence that trees acclimatize to high temperatures within their lifetime: local variation in early exposure to high temperatures, which stems from local variation in the timing of tree birth, does not significantly impact the response to high temperatures, although temperature-sensitive trees acquire some heightened sensitivity from early exposure. I also find some evidence that trees adapt to high temperatures in the long run: across humid ecoregions of the United States, high temperatures are 40% less harmful to tree growth, where their average incidence is one standard deviation above average. Overall, these results highlight the strength of a new methodology which, applied to representative tree ring data, could contribute to predicting forest carbon uptake potential and composition under global change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joséphine Gantois
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
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Campbell EM, Magnussen S, Antos JA, Parish R. Size‐, species‐, and site‐specific tree growth responses to climate variability in old‐growth subalpine forests. Ecosphere 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3529] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Elizabeth M. Campbell
- Natural Resources Canada Canadian Forest Service Pacific Forestry Centre 506 West Burnside Road Victoria British ColumbiaV8Z 1M5Canada
| | - Steen Magnussen
- Natural Resources Canada Canadian Forest Service Pacific Forestry Centre 506 West Burnside Road Victoria British ColumbiaV8Z 1M5Canada
| | - Joseph A. Antos
- Department of Biology University of Victoria P.O. Box 3020, STN CSC Victoria British ColumbiaV8W 3N5Canada
| | - Roberta Parish
- Azura Formetrics Ltd. 1540 Ash Road Victoria British ColumbiaV8N 2S8Canada
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Durmus A, Moulines É, Saksman E. Irreducibility and geometric ergodicity of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. Ann Stat 2020. [DOI: 10.1214/19-aos1941] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
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4
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Sabzikar F, McLeod AI, Meerschaert MM. Parameter estimation for ARTFIMA time series. J Stat Plan Inference 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2018.09.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/28/2022]
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Mokria M, Gebrekirstos A, Abiyu A, Van Noordwijk M, Bräuning A. Multi-century tree-ring precipitation record reveals increasing frequency of extreme dry events in the upper Blue Nile River catchment. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2017; 23:5436-5454. [PMID: 28712116 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13809] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2017] [Accepted: 06/23/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Climate-related environmental and humanitarian crisis are important challenges in the Great Horn of Africa (GHA). In the absence of long-term past climate records in the region, tree-rings are valuable climate proxies, reflecting past climate variations and complementing climate records prior to the instrumental era. We established annually resolved multi-century tree-ring chronology from Juniperus procera trees in northern Ethiopia, the longest series yet for the GHA. The chronology correlates significantly with wet-season (r = .64, p < .01) and annual (r = .68, p < .01) regional rainfall. Reconstructed rainfall since A.D. 1811 revealed significant interannual variations between 2.2 and 3.8 year periodicity, with significant decadal and multidecadal variations during 1855-1900 and 1960-1990. The duration of negative and positive rainfall anomalies varied between 1-7 years and 1-8 years. Approximately 78.4% (95%) of reconstructed dry (extreme dry) and 85.4% (95%) of wet (extreme wet) events lasted for 1 year only and corresponded to historical records of famine and flooding, suggesting that future climate change studies should be both trend and extreme event focused. The average return periods for dry (extreme dry) and wet (extreme wet) events were 4.1 (8.8) years and 4.1 (9.5) years. Extreme-dry conditions during the 19th century were concurrent with drought episodes in equatorial eastern Africa that occurred at the end of the Little Ice Age. El Niño and La Niña events matched with 38.5% and 50% of extreme-dry and extreme-wet events. Equivalent matches for positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole events were weaker, reaching 23.1 and 25%, respectively. Spatial correlations revealed that reconstructed rainfall represents wet-season rainfall variations over northern Ethiopia and large parts of the Sahel belt. The data presented are useful for backcasting climate and hydrological models and for developing regional strategic plans to manage scarce and contested water resources. Historical perspectives on long-term regional rainfall variability improve the interpretation of recent climate trends.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mulugeta Mokria
- World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), United Nations Avenue, Nairobi, Kenya
- Institute of Geography, Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Erlangen, Germany
| | - Aster Gebrekirstos
- World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), United Nations Avenue, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Abrham Abiyu
- Amhara Agricultural Research Institute (ARARI), Amhara Region, Ethiopia
| | - Meine Van Noordwijk
- World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), United Nations Avenue, Nairobi, Kenya
- Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Achim Bräuning
- Institute of Geography, Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Erlangen, Germany
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Lee EH, Wickham C, Beedlow PA, Waschmann RS, Tingey DT. A likelihood-based time series modeling approach for application in dendrochronology to examine the growth-climate relations and forest disturbance history. DENDROCHRONOLOGIA 2017; 45:132-144. [PMID: 29479167 PMCID: PMC5821304 DOI: 10.1016/j.dendro.2017.08.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
A time series intervention analysis (TSIA) of dendrochronological data to infer the tree growth-climate-disturbance relations and forest disturbance history is described. Maximum likelihood is used to estimate the parameters of a structural time series model with components for climate and forest disturbances (i.e., pests, diseases, fire). The statistical method is illustrated with a tree-ring width time series for a mature closed-canopy Douglas-fir stand on the west slopes of the Cascade Mountains of Oregon, USA that is impacted by Swiss needle cast disease caused by the foliar fungus, Phaecryptopus gaeumannii (Rhode) Petrak. The likelihood-based TSIA method is proposed for the field of dendrochronology to understand the interaction of temperature, water, and forest disturbances that are important in forest ecology and climate change studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- E. Henry Lee
- US Environmental Protection Agency, 200 SW 35 Street, Corvallis, OR 97333
| | - Charlotte Wickham
- Oregon State University, Department of Statistics, Corvallis, OR 97331
| | - Peter A. Beedlow
- US Environmental Protection Agency, 200 SW 35 Street, Corvallis, OR 97333
| | | | - David T. Tingey
- US Environmental Protection Agency, 200 SW 35 Street, Corvallis, OR 97333
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Himalayan glaciers experienced significant mass loss during later phases of little ice age. Sci Rep 2017; 7:10305. [PMID: 28871188 PMCID: PMC5583174 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-09212-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2017] [Accepted: 07/24/2017] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
To date, there is a gap in the data about the state and mass balance of glaciers in the climate-sensitive subtropical regions during the Little Ice Age (LIA). Here, based on an unprecedented tree-ring sampling coverage, we present the longest reconstructed mass balance record for the Western Himalayan glaciers, dating to 1615. Our results confirm that the later phase of LIA was substantially briefer and weaker in the Himalaya than in the Arctic and subarctic regions. Furthermore, analysis of the time-series of the mass-balance against other time-series shows clear evidence of the existence of (i) a significant glacial decay and a significantly weaker magnitude of glaciation during the latter half of the LIA; (ii) a weak regional mass balance dependence on either the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) taken in isolation, but a considerable combined influence of both of them during the LIA; and (iii) in addition to anthropogenic climate change, the strong effect from the increased yearly concurrence of extremely high TSI with El Niño over the past five decades, resulting in severe glacial mass loss. The generated mass balance time-series can serve as a source of reliable reconstructed data to the scientific community.
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Itter MS, Finley AO, D'Amato AW, Foster JR, Bradford JB. Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2017; 27:1082-1095. [PMID: 28182303 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1518] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2016] [Revised: 01/13/2017] [Accepted: 01/19/2017] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics-changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands.
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Affiliation(s)
- Malcolm S Itter
- Department of Forestry, Michigan State University, Natural Resources Building, 480 Wilson Road, East Lansing, Michigan, 48824, USA
- Ecology, Evolutionary Biology and Behavior Program, Michigan State University, Giltner Hall, 293 Farm Lane Road, East Lansing, Michigan, 48824, USA
| | - Andrew O Finley
- Department of Forestry, Michigan State University, Natural Resources Building, 480 Wilson Road, East Lansing, Michigan, 48824, USA
- Department of Geography, Michigan State University, Geography Building, 673 Auditorium Road, East Lansing, Michigan, 48824, USA
| | - Anthony W D'Amato
- Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Aiken Center, 81 Carrigan Drive, Burlington, Vermont, 05405, USA
| | - Jane R Foster
- Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, Green Hall, 1530 Cleveland Avenue North, St. Paul, Minnesota, 55108, USA
| | - John B Bradford
- U.S. Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, P.O. Box 5614 Building 56, Flagstaff, Arizona, 86011, USA
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