On the distribution of maximum of multivariate normal random vectors

A quantitative model of ensemble perception as summed activation in feature space

Ensemble perception is a process by which we summarize complex scenes. Despite the importance of ensemble perception to everyday cognition, there are few computational models that provide a formal account of this process. Here we develop and test a model in which ensemble representations reflect the global sum of activation signals across all individual items. We leverage this set of minimal assumptions to formally connect a model of memory for individual items to ensembles. We compare our ensemble model against a set of alternative models in five experiments. Our approach uses performance on a visual memory task for individual items to generate zero-free-parameter predictions of interindividual and intraindividual differences in performance on an ensemble continuous-report task. Our top-down modelling approach formally unifies models of memory for individual items and ensembles and opens a venue for building and comparing models of distinct memory processes and representations.

Disorder fosters chimera in an array of motile particles

We consider an array of nonlocally coupled oscillators on a ring, which for equally spaced units possesses a Kuramoto-Battogtokh chimera regime and a synchronous state. We demonstrate that disorder in oscillators positions leads to a transition from the synchronous to the chimera state. For a static (quenched) disorder we find that the probability of synchrony survival depends on the number of particles, from nearly zero at small populations to one in the thermodynamic limit. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the synchrony gets destroyed for randomly (ballistically or diffusively) moving oscillators. We show that, depending on the number of oscillators, there are different scalings of the transition time with this number and the velocity of the units.

A powerful test for the maximum treatment effect in thorough QT/QTc studies

Parallel-group thorough QT/QTc studies focus on the change of QT/QTc values at several time-matched points from a pretreatment day (baseline) to a posttreatment day for different groups of treatment. The International Council for Harmonisation E14 stresses that QTc prolongation beyond a threshold represents high cardiac risk and calls for a test on the largest time-matched treatment effect (QTc prolongation). QT/QTc analysis usually assumes a jointly multivariate normal (MVN) distribution of pretreatment and posttreatment QT/QTc values, with a blocked compound symmetry covariance matrix. Existing methods use an analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) model including day-averaged baseline as a covariate to deal with the MVN model. However, the ANCOVA model tends to underestimate the variation of the estimator for treatment effects, resulting in the inflation of empirical type I error rate when testing whether the largest QTc prolongation is beyond a threshold. In this article, we propose two new methods to estimate the time-matched treatment effects under the MVN model, including maximum likelihood estimation and ordinary-least-square-based two-stage estimation. These two methods take advantage of the covariance structure and are asymptotically efficient. Based on these estimators, powerful tests for QT/QTc prolongation are constructed. Simulation shows that the proposed estimators have smaller mean square error, and the tests can control the type I error rate with high power. The proposed methods are applied on testing the carryover effect of diltiazem to inhibit dofetilide in a randomized phase 1 trial.

Criteria for evaluating risk prediction of multiple outcomes

Risk prediction models have been developed in many contexts to classify individuals according to a single outcome, such as risk of a disease. Emerging “-omic” biomarkers provide panels of features that can simultaneously predict multiple outcomes from a single biological sample, creating issues of multiplicity reminiscent of exploratory hypothesis testing. Here I propose definitions of some basic criteria for evaluating prediction models of multiple outcomes. I define calibration in the multivariate setting and then distinguish between outcome-wise and individual-wise prediction, and within the latter between joint and panel-wise prediction. I give examples such as screening and early detection in which different senses of prediction may be more appropriate. In each case I propose definitions of sensitivity, specificity, concordance, positive and negative predictive value and relative utility. I link the definitions through a multivariate probit model, showing that the accuracy of a multivariate prediction model can be summarised by its covariance with a liability vector. I illustrate the concepts on a biomarker panel for early detection of eight cancers, and on polygenic risk scores for six common diseases.