Seasonal variation of admission severity and outcomes in ischemic stroke - a consecutive hospital-based stroke registry

Forecasting extremely high ischemic stroke incidence using meteorological time serie

MOTIVATION

The association between weather conditions and stroke incidence has been a subject of interest for several years, yet the findings from various studies remain inconsistent. Additionally, predictive modelling in this context has been infrequent. This study explores the relationship of extremely high ischaemic stroke incidence and meteorological factors within the Slovak population. Furthermore, it aims to construct forecasting models of extremely high number of strokes.

METHODS

Over a five-year period, a total of 52,036 cases of ischemic stroke were documented. Days exhibiting a notable surge in ischemic stroke occurrences (surpassing the 90th percentile of historical records) were identified as extreme cases. These cases were then scrutinized alongside daily meteorological parameters spanning from 2015 to 2019. To create forecasts for the occurrence of these extreme cases one day in advance, three distinct methods were employed: Logistic regression, Random Forest for Time Series, and Croston's method.

RESULTS

For each of the analyzed stroke centers, the cross-correlations between instances of extremely high stroke numbers and meteorological factors yielded negligible results. Predictive performance achieved by forecasts generated through multivariate logistic regression and Random Forest for time series analysis, which incorporated meteorological data, was on par with that of Croston's method. Notably, Croston's method relies solely on the stroke time series data. All three forecasting methods exhibited limited predictive accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

The task of predicting days characterized by an exceptionally high number of strokes proved to be challenging across all three explored methods. The inclusion of meteorological parameters did not yield substantive improvements in forecasting accuracy.

Seasonal variability of lesions distribution in acute ischemic stroke: A retrospective study

Seasonal variability could have an impact on the incidence and outcome of stroke. However, little is known about the correlation between seasonal variability and location of acute cerebral infarction. This study aimed to explore the relationship between onset season and the lesions distribution of acute ischemic stroke (AIS). We retrospectively analysis data from 1488 AIS patients admitted to the Second Hospital of Tianjin Medical University from 2018 to 2022. All subjects completed head magnetic resonance imaging examination (MRI) and were divided into four groups according to the onset seasons. The lesions distribution of AIS was evaluated for anterior/posterior/double circulation infarction (DCI), unilateral/bilateral infarctions, and single/multiple cerebral infarctions based on MRI. Logistic regression models were employed to assess the association of season with lesions distribution of AIS. Subgroup analysis was performed in different stroke subtypes. Of 1488 patients, 387 (26.0%) AIS occurred in spring, 425 (28.6%) in summer, 331 (22.2%) in autumn and 345 (23.2%) in winter. Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that the winter group had 2.15 times (95% CI:1.44-3.21) risk of multiple infarctions, 2.69 times (95% CI:1.80-4.02) of bilateral infarctions and 1.54 times (95% CI:1.05-2.26) of DCI compared with summer group, respectively. Subgroup analysis showed an increased risk of multiple (p < 0.01) or bilateral infarctions (p < 0.01) in small-artery occlusion (SAO) subtype, and higher risk of bilateral infarctions (p < 0.01) or DCI (p < 0.05) in large artery atherosclerosis (LAA) subtype during winter. No significant associations of season with lesions distribution in cardioembolism subtype. Our study highlighted a prominent seasonal variability in the lesions distribution of AIS, particularly in LAA and SAO subtypes. The findings could help to formulating meteorological risk warning strategies for different subtypes.

Seasonal Variation in Neurological Severity and Clinical Outcomes in Ischemic Stroke Patients - A 9-Year Study of 5,238 Patients

BACKGROUND

Because the effects of extreme weather conditions on stroke severity and outcomes are unclear, we evaluated seasonal variations in stroke severity and clinical outcomes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Between 2012 and 2020 we enrolled 5,238 patients with acute ischemic stroke, who were divided into 4 seasons according to stroke onset: spring, summer, autumn and winter. We analyzed the effect of season on the severity and outcomes of all subjects. Multivariable analysis showed that the winter group had 1.234-fold increased risk of moderate-to-severe neurological deficits than the summer group (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.034-1.472, P=0.020). Compared with the summer group, the winter and the spring groups experienced 1.243- and 1.251-fold the risk of suffering from worse outcomes among all patients at 6-month follow-up (95% CI 1.008-1.534, P=0.042, 95% CI 1.013-1.544, P=0.037). The 1-year follow-up revealed similar results. Further comparison of each season in the 2012-2015 and 2016-2020 periods found that the proportion of poor outcomes in the latter autumn group was lower than that in the former time period, with significant differences in both 6-month and 1-year follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

The onset season was related to the severity and clinical outcomes of ischemic stroke. Patients with winter onset had more severe neurological deficits and worse outcomes than those with summer onset.

Improving Hospital Length of Stay: Results of a Retrospective Cohort Study

(1) Background: Jersey Shore University Medical Center (JSUMC) is a 646-bed tertiary medical center located in central New Jersey. Over the past several years, development and maturation of tertiary services at JSUMC has resulted in tremendous growth, with the inpatient volume increasing by 17% between 2016 and 2018. As hospital floors functioned at maximum capacity, the medical center was frequently forced into crisis mode with substantial increases in emergency department (ED) waiting times and a paradoxical increase in-hospital length of stay (hLOS). Prolonged hLOS can contribute to worse patient outcomes and satisfaction, as well as increased medical costs. (2) Methods: A root cause analysis was conducted to identify the factors leading to delays in providing in-hospital services. Four main bottlenecks were identified by the in-hospital phase sub-committee: incomplete orders, delays in placement to rehabilitation facilities, delays due to testing (mainly imaging), and delays in entering the discharge order. Similarly, the discharge process itself was analyzed, and obstacles were identified. Specific interventions to address each obstacle were implemented. Mean CMI-adjusted hospital LOS (CMI-hLOS) was the primary outcome measure. (3) Results: After interventions, CMI-hLOS decreased from 2.99 in 2017 to 2.84 and 2.76 days in 2018 and 2019, respectively. To correct for aberrations due to the COVID pandemic, we compared June-August 2019 to June-August 2020 and found a further decrease to 2.42 days after full implementation of all interventions. We estimate that the intervention led to an absolute reduction in costs of USD 3 million in the second half of 2019 and more than USD 7 million in 2020. On the other hand, the total expenses, represented by salaries for additional staffing, were USD 2,103,274, resulting in an estimated net saving for 2020 of USD 5,400,000. (4) Conclusions: At JSUMC, hLOS was found to be a complex and costly issue. A comprehensive approach, starting with the identification of all correctable delays followed by interventions to mitigate delays, led to a significant reduction in hLOS along with significant cost savings.

Dependence of seasonal dynamics of hemorrhagic and ischemic strokes on the climate of a region: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular events occur more often in winter than in summer; however, the dependence of strokes on various meteorological factors remains unclear.

AIMS

The purpose of this meta-analysis was to determine the dependence of the circannual dynamics of hospitalizations for hemorrhagic stroke and ischemic stroke on seasonal fluctuations in meteorological factors.

SUMMARY OF REVIEW AND CONCLUSIONS

For our meta-analysis, we selected 20 and 26 publications examining the seasonal dynamics of hemorrhagic stroke and ischemic stroke, respectively . The meta-analysis showed that hemorrhagic stroke is less likely to occur in summer than in other seasons and does not depend on a region's climate. The seasonal dynamics of ischemic stroke are not clearly expressed and are determined by the characteristics of a region's climate. In a climate without pronounced seasonal dynamics of atmospheric pressure and in wet winters, the vector of ischemic stroke incidents will not be expressed or slightly shifted toward winter. Low atmospheric pressure in summer is associated with an increased likelihood of ischemic stroke during this season compared to winter. There was also a relation between ischemic stroke risk with high relative humidity and a significant decrease in ρO₂ in summer, but there is not enough evidence regarding this association. We did not reveal dependence of the seasonal dynamics of strokes on the amplitude of annual fluctuations in air temperature.

The effects of heatwaves and cold spells on patients admitted with acute ischemic stroke

Background

This study aimed to explore the effects of heatwaves and cold spells on blood pressure, thrombus formation, and systemic inflammation at admission in patients with ischemic stroke.

Methods

Data of patients with ischemic stroke who were admitted to the Second Hospital of Tianjin Medical University between May 2014 and March 2019 were reviewed, along with meteorological data from the same time period. A total of 806 clinically confirmed patients with ischemic stroke (34–97 years old) were included in the final analysis. Heatwaves and cold spells were defined as ≥2 consecutive days with average temperature >95^th percentile (May–August) and <5^th percentile (November–March), respectively. Coagulation parameters, inflammation indices, blood pressure, and neurological impairment were evaluated within 24 hours of admission. General linear and logistic regression models were created to investigate the relationships of heatwaves and cold spells with the examination results of patients with ischemic stroke at admission.

Results

After adjustment for potential environmental confounders, heatwaves were positively associated with high systolic blood pressure (SBP) (β=8.693, P=0.019), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (β=3.665, P=0.040), reduced thrombin time (TT) (β=−0.642, P=0.027), and activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) (β=−1.572, P=0.027) in ischemic stroke patients at admission. Cold spells were positively associated with high SBP (β=5.277, P=0.028), DBP (β=4.672, P=0.012), fibrinogen (β=0.315, P=0.011), globulin (β=1.523, P=0.011), and reduced TT (β=−0.784, P<0.001) and APTT (β=−1.062, P=0.024). Cold spells were also associated with a higher risk of respiratory infection [odds ratio (OR) =2.677, P=0.001].

Conclusions

Exposure to heatwaves or cold spells was associated with blood pressure and coagulation at admission in patients with ischemic stroke. Cold spells also resulted in higher levels of inflammation. These findings suggest that changes in coagulation, blood pressure, and inflammation may be the potential biological mechanisms underlying the cerebrovascular effects of exposure to extreme temperatures.

Clinical blood pressure responses to daily ambient temperature exposure in China: An analysis based on a representative nationwide population

BACKGROUND

Limited evidence is available regarding the potential heterogeneity of ambient temperature on blood pressure (BP) in various climate zones.

OBJECTIVES

To explore the effect of daily ambient temperature on BP in various climate zones across 31 provinces in China.

METHODS

A representative population sample (n = 451,770) were obtained from the China Hypertension Survey study (CHS) from October 2012 to December 2015. Survey seasons were divided into warm and cold seasons. Survey sites were divided into three climate zones as subtropical, temperate monsoon and temperate continental zones.

RESULTS

After adjustment for confounders, an overall 10 °C decrease in ambient temperature was statistically associated 0.74 mmHg (95% CI: 0.69, 0.79) and 0.60 mmHg (95% CI: -0.63, -0.57) rise for SBP and DBP, respectively. In the warm season, U-shaped exposure-response curves were observed between ambient temperature and BP in temperate monsoon and continental zones, and liner curves in other zones. A greater SBP change due to a lower temperature was observed in subtropical zones, so did DBP in temperate continental zones, especially for cold season. Female, rural and elderly populations were more susceptible to cold weather than their counterparts.

DISCUSSION

There is a geographical disparity between temperature and BP across different climate zones, which should been taken into consideration when maintaining stable blood pressure levels.

Impact of seasonal variations on the first ischemic events in patients with moyamoya disease

OBJECTIVES

This retrospective study aimed to explore the impact of seasonal variations on the first ischemic events in patients with moyamoya disease (MMD).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Based on the first-time ischemic event occurrence, 113 patients, including 84 with cerebral infarction and 29 with transient ischemic attack, who were diagnosed with ischemic MMD were divided into four groups: spring (March-May), summer (June-August), autumn (September-November) and winter (December-February). The incidence of cerebral infarction was considered as the primary parameter. The impact of seasonal variations on the occurrence of cerebral infarction was analyzed by Poisson regression model and seasonal analysis.

RESULTS

When summer was set as the reference, patients in summer were more significantly susceptible to develop cerebral infarction as compared with spring (IRR, 0.529, 95%CI, 0.299-0.937, p = 0.03), autumn (IRR, 0.441, 95%CI, 0.240-0.810, p < 0.01) and winter (0.500, 95%CI, 0.279-0.895, p = 0.02). The seasonality of the time series in summer (1.231) was substantially higher than that in the other three seasons (-0.269 in spring, -0.656 in autumn and -0.306 in winter). No discrepancy in either NIHSS or mRS scores at admission was observed among the four seasons.

CONCLUSION

Patients with MMD may be more vulnerable to cerebral infarction in summer compared with the other three seasons, and seasonal onset of cerebral infarction does not seem to be associated with the severity of neurological disability at admission.